Showing papers in "Global Change, Peace & Security in 2002"

The Defence of East Timor: A Recipe for Disaster?

Abstract: The establishment of the East Timor Defence Force (ETDF) is proceeding expeditiously and creditably. By 2004-2005 East Timor will have a small but proficient light infantry force. But it will be expensive to maintain, and its strategic rationale is dubious. Such a force is not very well designed for addressing the conceivable (but improbable) military threats that East Timor might face. Maritime surveillance, patrol and enforcement capabilities are deficient. East Timor's security is much more likely to be endangered by its economic, social and political problems becoming unmanageable. Unfortunately, a major opportunity cost of the investment in the ETDF could well be a failure of the police, immigration, customs and judicial systems to cope with domestic and transnational crime; inadequate transportation and communications infrastructure, educational facilities, and commercial enterprises for sound economic development; and ultimately an incapacity for civil governance. The coordination of policies on the whole range of security challenges facing East Timor will be crucially important. Australia's contribution should be more balanced and less militarised.

Internal Conflict and Regional Security in Asia and the Pacific

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of increasing intra-state conflict in the Asia Pacific on domestic, regional and international security. It focuses on secessionist conflicts and self-determination disputes in South-East Asia and the South Pacific. It looks at the reasons behind the increase in such internal conflicts, including the proliferation of weak, ethnically diverse states; the impacts of modernization and democratization; and changing international norms in relation to the creation of new states. Finally, it examines the way that intra-state conflict impacts upon the international security agenda via the involvement of distant actors; the internationalization of domestic disputes; cross-border movements of arms and people; increasing threats to maritime transport; and the potential for increased superpower competition in the region.

Missile defence, the ABM treaty, and nuclear weapons: An opportunity missed

Abstract: The contention that current US policy settings on missile defence, the Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM treaty), and strategic nuclear weapons signal the end of the Cold War and lay the foundations for a new strategic framework is premature Against the background of withdrawal from the ABM treaty, the missile defence programme offers little assurance to Russia and China that it will be limited to the threat from 'rogue' states More particularly, the US position on nuclear weapons reveals the strength of entrenched Cold War thinking A clear opportunity to lead the world decisively away from high-salience nuclear postures has been missed The paper outlines approaches to missile defence and nuclear weapons that offer a better fit with the various objectives of reducing reliance on nuclear weapons, revitalising non-proliferation, and providing defences against limited but undeterrable missile threats The paper also argues that the new focus of intense concern--the theft of