Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 1991"
TL;DR: This paper conducted interviews with a small but diverse sample of US residents in order to understand how ordinary citizens conceptualize global climate change and make value judgments about it and found that the strongest environmental value to emerge was a desire to preserve the environment for one's descendants.
Abstract: Ethnographic interviews were conducted with a small but diverse sample of US residents in order to understand how ordinary citizens conceptualize global climate change and make value judgments about it. Most informants had heard of the greenhouse effect. However, they conceptualized global climate change very differently from scientists because they interpreted it in terms of four pre-existing categories: stratospheric ozone depletion; plant photosynthesis; tropospheric pollution; and personally experienced temperature variation. The strongest environmental value to emerge was a desire to preserve the environment for one's descendants — it was spontaneously mentioned by twelve of the first fourteen informants. Species extinction and range shifts are among the most significant potential effects of global climate change, yet these effects were virtually unknown. Few informants recognized the connection between energy consumption and global warming, and they typically regarded their personal fuel consumption as inelastic.
262 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a typology of vulnerability indices is developed and several measures of vulnerability are explored using information from case studies reported in the literature and research coordinated by the author's research group.
Abstract: Limitations of present assessments of climate change impacts on food supplies are addressed, and a new approach is proposed. This uses the concept of vulnerability to hunger as a point of departure. A typology of vulnerability indices is developed and several measures of vulnerability are explored using information from case studies reported in the literature and research coordinated by the author's research group. An initial synthesis of data about climate change and vulnerability to hunger is illustrated for Africa.
127 citations
123 citations
TL;DR: The assessment of global warming impacts in Mexico is an uncertain task because the projections of different models vary widely, particularly for precipitation, and because they perform poorly in reproducing the observed climate of Mexico as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Climate models suggest that global warming could bring warmer, drier conditions to Mexico. Although precipitation increases are projected by some models, in most cases they do not compensate for increases in potential evaporation. Thus, soil moisture and water availability may decrease over much of Mexico with serious consequences for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, urban and industrial water supplies, hydropower and ecosystems. However, the assessment of global warming impacts in Mexico is an uncertain task because the projections of different models vary widely, particularly for precipitation, and because they perform poorly in reproducing the observed climate of Mexico.
80 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the changing nature of the global change issue and look at how the disciplines of risk analysis and management are trying to respond to the new challenges offered by global environmental change; suggest ways in which global risks can be classified; and recommend different approaches to science and policy evaluation.
Abstract: Global environmental change is both a concept and a process that changes in meaning with scientific discovery, public concern, and political responsiveness. The relationship between the problems, as perceived, and the various institutions that help shape and adapt to such problems, defines global environmental change. Holistic risk analysis, because of its capacity to recognize this relationship in many spheres of problem identification, can contribute to the political debate. Such analysis will suggest institutional redesign of the relationship between scientific research, public entry, and experimental readjustments to consensus formation and international action. The authors examine the changing nature of the global change issue; look at how the disciplines of risk analysis and management are trying to respond to the new challenges offered by global environmental change; suggest ways in which global risks can be classified; and recommend different approaches to science and policy evaluation.
75 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined lay perceptions of global climate change in the Swedish town of Umea and found that the greenhouse effect was confused with the issue of stratospheric ozone depletion and reductions in the use of aerosol cans were judged to be appropriate policy responses to the threat of greenhouse warming.
Abstract: Lay perceptions of global climate change were examined in the Swedish town of Umea. Interviews revealed that some residents believed temperatures were becoming warmer, but few perceived linkages between the threat of global climate change and energy use. The desire to reduce household expenditure motivated conservation measures more than concerns about environmental issues. The greenhouse effect was confused with the issue of stratospheric ozone depletion and reductions in the use of aerosol cans were judged to be appropriate policy responses to the threat of greenhouse warming.
71 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a simple agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), has been related to the minimum requirements for the successful cultivation of three crops: grain maize, sunflower and soya bean.
Abstract: Climatic warming due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to lead to largescale shifts in the pattern of agricultural potential. This article reports the results of a study to Investigate the broad-scale sensitivity of crop potential to climatic change in Europe. A simple agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), has been related to the minimum requirements for the successful cultivation of three crops: grain maize, sunflower and soya bean. With the aid of a computer mapping system, ETS has been mapped across Europe on the basis of present climate and of scenarios of future climate. In this way, the effects of changes in climate can be expressed as spatial shifts in the limits of crop potential, and the uncertainities in the estimates can be interpreted in terms of the likelihood of particular regions becoming climatically suitable for crop cultivation. The estimates point to a considerable dislocation of agricultural potential occurring over a matter of only several decades.
47 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, a framework for analysing how geographic scale affects governments' ability to manage environmental problems is suggested, based on interactions between four dimensions: production-consumption relationships; distribution of the benefits and costs of various activities; level of administrative control; and spatial scale of individuals' attachment to place.
Abstract: Issues posed by global environmental change can be viewed as the problem of the commons on a larger geographic scale. A framework for analysing how geographic scale affects governments' ability to manage environmental problems is suggested here. It is based on interactions between four dimensions: production-consumption relationships; distribution of the benefits and costs of various activities; level of administrative control; and spatial scale of individuals' attachment to place. Global environmental problems can be viewed as a case where benefits from polluting activities are spatially concentrated relative to costs. The difficulty in addressing such problems stems from the discrepancy in geographic scale between adverse impacts and level of administrative control. The possibility of adapting institutional structures to match the scale of the problems is examined, in light of the increasing spatial scale of production-consumption relationships in the post-industrial world and the growing demand for local control across the globe. The geographic scale of ideological attachment to place is identified as an important variable in determining the ability to respond to large-scale environmental problems.
40 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report on a multidisciplinary study of four distinct conceptual approaches to climate change: climate scenarios assessment, critical water management problems, historic antecedents and analogies, and Muslim political reconstruction.
Abstract: Global warming raises troubling questions about the ecological and economic future of large irrigated river basins such as the Indus River in Pakistan. But it is not clear how potential impacts might best be identified or addressed. This article reports on a multidisciplinary study of four distinct conceptual approaches to climate change: climate scenarios assessment; critical water management problems; historic antecedents and analogies; and Muslim political reconstruction. Current scientific research emphasizes the first approach, but the other three may be more important for water managers in the basin. The article reviews previous research on water resources effects of climate change; introduces the Indus basin; discusses the four conceptual approaches; and finally discusses prospects for coordinating them.
39 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify and analyse links between changing scientific perspectives on nature and emerging perceptions of environmental policies and argue that society faces basic uncertainty in predicting environmental futures, it is time to formulate a fundamentally new risk philosophy, complementary interdisciplinary management approaches, and a more modern attitude towards efficient and renewable resource systems.
Abstract: Theoretical as well as empirical reevaluations of nature are occurring in response to failures to predict environmental changes, recent developments in systems theory, and new research into environmental attitudes. At present, holistic concepts in ecological theory are marked by dissension, and environmental policy is beset with turmoil — both situations are due in part to differing perceptions of the role of complexity in natural systems. This article identifies and analyses links between changing scientific perspectives on nature and emerging perceptions of environmental policies. It is argued that because society faces basic uncertainty in predicting environmental futures, it is time to formulate a fundamentally new risk philosophy, complementary interdisciplinary management approaches, and a more modern attitude towards efficient and renewable resource systems.
30 citations
TL;DR: A recent study of the collective regulation of chemicals which threaten the stratospheric ozone layer sheds light on the questions of how states recognize problems which had not previously been clearly indicated, the politics of actual standard setting and the role of scientific understanding as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: A study of the collective regulation of chemicals which threaten the stratospheric ozone layer sheds light on the questions of how states recognize problems which had not previously been clearly indicated, the politics of actual standard setting, and the role of scientific understanding. Costly choices have been made without absolute scientific confirmation of environmental risk. This process was driven by the interplay of three interrelated sets of forces: knowledge, international politics, and technological innovation. Each may be necessary but insufficient to explain the outcome. Key in this case has been the role of an ecological epistemic community — a knowledge-based transnational network of specialists — whose members shared common views about the causes of the phenomenon and the policies which should be taken to manage it. This group was largely responsible for identifying and popularizing the problem's existence, and for selecting policy choices for its management.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose two commercial energy protocols for consideration by negotiators in this light, which link international trading in greenhouse-gas emission "rights" to a country's historical per capita carbon emissions.
Abstract: A strategy for a successful climate protection convention must highlight the role of equity in order to bring more nations to the bargaining table. The authors propose two commercial energy protocols for consideration by negotiators in this light. The first links international trading in greenhouse-gas emission ‘rights’ to a country's historical per capita carbon emissions. The charge for these rights should be based on the negotiated reduction in global emissions and the demand for them, via the marketplace. The second requires inefficient countries to make steady improvements in energy efficiency or fuel substitution away from carbon as their economies develop.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focused on the issue of water resources and discussed the results of a study of the relationship between climate warming, resources and security, with an emphasis on the Middle East.
Abstract: The authors, focusing on the issue of water resources, set out and discuss the results of a study of the relationship between climate warming, resources and security, with an emphasis on the Middle East. The study includes an assessment of the extent to which climate warming is likely to occur in the region; the potential impacts of climate warming on key river systems; and finally a discussion of the extent to which these potential impacts are likely to contribute to political instability and conflict.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the record of different international environmental agreements in order to highlight general lessons of possible relevance to a greenhouse gas accord and identify five factors that are important in achieving effective international agreement on environmental issues: the role of scientific and other knowledge in building consensus, the degree of flexibility provided in meeting obligations to the agreement, role of incentives (both positive and negative) for widespread participation; the process of negotiation itself; and the role in public perception in influencing political action.
Abstract: The authors begin with the premise that it would be instructive to examine the record of different international environmental agreements in order to highlight general lessons of possible relevance to a greenhouse gas accord. They review three different international agreements (or sets of agreements) on the environment: the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its 1990 amendment; a set of multilateral agreements to reduce acid rain in Europe; and the 1982 Law of the Sea Treaty. Their analysis sheds light on five factors that are important in achieving effective international agreement on environmental issues: the role of scientific and other knowledge in building consensus; the degree of flexibility provided in meeting obligations to the agreement; the role of incentives (both positive and negative) for widespread participation; the process of negotiation itself; and the role of public perception in influencing political action.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the environmental effects of development schemes and spontaneous settlement in Amazonia and propose a sustainable agricultural system to relieve pressure on the remaining forest in the country.
Abstract: Development pressures are triggering rapid ecological, cultural, and economic changes in Amazonia, one of the world's largest remaining forest frontiers. Some of the environmental effects of development schemes and spontaneous settlement have local and potentially regional and global repercussions. Ecological issues surrounding human activities in Amazonia include pollution from mining activities; deforestation and climate change; accelerated erosion and declining soil fertility; soil erosion and flooding; and the impact of hydroelectric dams on fisheries. It is important to develop sustainable agricultural Systems to relieve pressure on the remaining forest.
TL;DR: A consensus is emerging in the scientific community to endorse a "no regrets" policy that involves buying various kinds of "insurance" against future global warming as mentioned in this paper, which can save tropical rain forests.
Abstract: Sophisticated computer models have been employed by the United Nations Environment Programme's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess past variations of world climate and to project possible trends over the next century. Attention has focused on the growing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Critics in scientific and policy professions hold that simulation models are not yet adequate to guide policy decisions. Many western governments dissent from this judgment and insist that a 20% reduction in CO 2 emissions should be achieved within 15 years and that remedial policies must be adopted to prevent catastrophic climate change. The proposed remedies range from saving tropical rain forests to forced conservation of energy or taxation of fossil-fuel combustion. A consensus is emerging in the scientific community to endorse a ‘no regrets’ policy that involves buying various kinds of ‘insurance’ against future global warming.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors put forward a challenging interpretation of an important issue in the field of global environmental change, and invited readers to submit written comments on the interpretation of the issue.
Abstract: This article puts forward a challenging interpretation of an important issue in the field of global environmental change. The editor invites readers to submit written comments.
TL;DR: The roles and uses of pollution science in marine environmental protection and regulation vary widely among maritime countries as mentioned in this paper and culture affects the application of science to policy in the USA, the PRC, the Mediterranean region, and the USSR.
Abstract: The roles and uses of pollution science in marine environmental protection and regulation vary widely among maritime countries. Culture affects the application of science to policy in the USA, the PRC, the Mediterranean region, and the USSR. Public and scientific judgments about what is important reflect disparate perceptions of: the ocean's place in economy and society; institutional factors that define science-society relations; policy processes; and historical traditions.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the results of a policy-oriented climate impact assessment of two case study sites in the southeastern USA: the Tennessee Valley Authority reservoir system and Apalachicola Bay.
Abstract: Concern about Society's ability to adapt to potential climate change impacts in a timely and effective manner has focused attention on the policy aspects of specific impacts. The author presents the results of a policy-oriented climate impact assessment of two case study sites in the southeastern USA: the Tennessee Valley Authority reservoir system and Apalachicola Bay. Each assessment draws upon biophysical impacts calculated from computer models of an atmosphere doubled in carbon dioxide. Policy implications of climate change impacts are discussed to identify options and weigh prospects for institutional adaptation.
TL;DR: In 1989, the US Social Science Research Council (SSRC) appointed a new Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change and charged it to foster collaborative research as discussed by the authors, which has organized research consortia on social learning in the management of global environmental risk; the national implementation of international environmental accords; and land use changes.
Abstract: In 1989 the US Social Science Research Council (SSRC) appointed a new Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change and charged it to foster collaborative research. 1 The National Science Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the Rockefeller Foundation have provided support for the Committee 's work, as has SSRC itself. 2 A proposal for renewal of core support is pending with the National Science Foundation. The Committee has organized research consortia on social learning in the management of global environmental risk; the national implementation of international environmental accords; and land use changes. It is also working on sustainable development; the comparative examination of landed property rights; population change; and conflict and cooperation. Among the planned initiatives are new projects on organization of interdisciplinary research; adoption of technological innovations; economic and other impacts of global warming; and design of case-study replications.
TL;DR: In the context of the scientific debate on the extent and impacts of global warming, Schneider outlines the major issues for policy analysis and suggests why a significant shift in priorities and investment is needed now to combat underdevelopment, overpopulation, overaffluence and environmental damage as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: In the context of the scientific debate on the extent and impacts of global warming, Stephen Schneider outlines the major issues for policy analysis and suggests why a significant shift in priorities and investment is needed now to combat underdevelopment, overpopulation, overaffluence and environmental damage.
TL;DR: MacCracken as discussed by the authors responds to Sherwood Idso's optimistic views of the impacts of human activity on the fate of the planet, and argues that human activity is not the only cause of climate change.
Abstract: Michael MacCracken responds to Sherwood Idso's optimistic views of the impacts of human activity on the fate of the planet. ‘Carbon dioxide and the fate of Earth’ by Sherwood Idso was published in the June issue of Global Environmental Change, pp 178–182.