Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 1992"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that shifting the normative principles applied to policy use of science is not merely an external shift in relation to the same body of natural knowledge, but also involves the possible reshaping of the natural knowledge itself.
Abstract: for current assumptions about scientific knowledge and environmental policy raised by the preventive approach and the associated Precautionary Principle. He offers a critical examination of approaches to characterizing different kinds of uncertainty in policy knowledge, especially in relation to decision making upstream from environmental effects. Via the key dimension of unrecognized indeterminacy in scientific knowledge, the author argues that shifting the normative principles applied to policy use of science is not merely an external shift in relation to the same body of ‘natural’ knowledge, but also involves the possible reshaping of the ‘natural’ knowledge itself.
1,013 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the connections between sustainability, risk and uncertainty in the context of global environmental change and human sustainability and characterize the challenge of managing change in dynamic systems riddled with uncertainty.
Abstract: This article offers an exploration of connections between sustainability, risk and uncertainty Global environmental change and human sustainability are characterized as the challenge of managing change in dynamic systems riddled with uncertainty A number of disciplines and intellectual traditions, including systems thinking, risk and ecology, are surveyed briefly as sources to inform an approach to this challenge Approaches to managing risk and uncertainty are discussed, a typology of resilience constructed, and an approach to sustainability defined The discussion is based on the three imperatives of constant change, everpresent uncertainty and ignorance, and an increasingly stressed interdependency between humans and the biosphere
351 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of interrelated environmental problems and development problems in the Indo-Pacific region and review efforts to develop response strategies, highlighting the case of the Maldives.
Abstract: Few developing countries possess sufficient indigenous financial and personnel resources to address adequately the predicted impacts of global climate change. In recognition of this fact, the Oceans and Coastal Areas Programme Activity Centre of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1987 established a series of regional teams to examine potential impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, on coastal environments, and on the socioeconomic structures of countries throughout the world. Drawing mainly on the work of the South Pacific Task Team, this article provides an overview of interrelated environmental problems and development problems in the Indo-Pacific region and reviews efforts to develop response strategies. The case of the Maldives is highlighted.
92 citations
TL;DR: The authors of as discussed by the authors argue that until a new sense of urgency is injected into the policy agenda the developed world is unlikely to pay serious attention to renewable sources of energy, and that human behaviour affects global environmental change in a variety of ways.
Abstract: Much of the discussion of global environmental change has ignored the potential of human agency, which is essential to sustainable development. Environmental policy has been slow to recognize that until a new sense of urgency is injected into the policy agenda the developed world is unlikely to pay serious attention to renewable sources of energy. Human behaviour affects global environmental change in a variety of ways. Social institutions, including those of the economy, mediate between the natural environment and social and economic outcomes. It follows that we need to be prepared, now, to enlist people in alternative, more sustainable development agendas and to use their knowledge. The tortuous road to greater global responsibility for environmental change will not, ultimately, be built on the uncertain predictions of natural scientists. Rather, it is likely to be built on the daily lives of human subjects, and the recognition that these lives involve choices of global proportions.
84 citations
TL;DR: The controversy over natural and human-induced impacts in the context of predicted greenhouse effects and other global changes is discussed in this paper, where the controversy over human and natural impacts in coral reefs is discussed.
Abstract: Coral reefs are exploited for subsistence and local market uses in 100 of the 160 states that are members of the United Nations. Reefs are stressed by natural events and demographic pressures. In some places they have been seriously degraded by a combination of global market demands and tourism. During the last three decades coral reefs have been affected by two major ecological disturbances: Crown-of-Thorns starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. This article discusses the controversy over natural and human-induced impacts in the context of predicted greenhouse effects and other global changes.
64 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the critical role of economics in understanding the potential magnitude of global climate change as a problem for human society and for assessing and developing effective responses, and suggest that priority areas for future economic research include analysis of the impacts and the adaptation of economic systems, the value of information and decision making under uncertainty, and the development of world models of the economy that aid in understanding and predicting the sources and effects of global change that are linked to economic activity.
Abstract: The author highlights the critical role of economics in understanding the potential magnitude of global climate change as a problem for human society and for assessing and developing effective responses. It is shown that many of the basic economic tools and techniques needed to address global climate change issues are already found in the existing environmental and natural resource economics literature. However, in the application of economic concepts to climate change problems, much work remains. It is suggested that priority areas for future economic research include analysis of the impacts and the adaptation of economic systems, the value of information and decision making under uncertainty, and the development of world models of the economy that aid in understanding and predicting the sources and effects of global change that are linked to economic activity.
45 citations
TL;DR: A review of the existing scenarios highlights conflicting, if not opposing, views about those impacts as discussed by the authors, and no single scenario should be used for determining irreversible policy responses to the potential regional consequences of global warming.
Abstract: Now that governments are beginning to consider actions to respond to the potential threat of global warming (even if they do not yet believe that it will definitely occur), their representatives search the scientific literature for ‘clues’ about the positive or negative impacts of a few degrees Celsius increase in global temperature. There is a growing number of ‘guesstimates’ (often called scenarios) about climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. A review of the existing scenarios highlights conflicting, if not opposing, views about those impacts. Such scenarios must be used with caution and labelled as speculation. No single scenario should be used for determining irreversible policy responses to the potential regional consequences of global warming.
43 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that institutional changes and the setting of technological norms are key processes which open and close the scope for future alternative worlds and circumscribe possibilities for action and provide a descriptive model of these processes as they have operated in three cases: forest death in Europe, stratospheric ozone depletion, and global warming.
Abstract: Scientific controversies about environmental risks highlight institutional rules that structure economic activities and call into question pure models of substantive rationality used by environmental economists. Such controversies illustrate how institutional changes and the setting of technological norms are key processes which open and close the scope for future alternative worlds and circumscribe possibilities for action. The author provides a descriptive model of these processes as they have operated in three cases: forest death in Europe; stratospheric ozone depletion; and global warming. He concludes that policy making should shift from a focus on static conceptions of economic efficiency to time-sensitive management of the relations between the development of science; the dynamics of mass media interests; the rhythms of technological innovations; investment flows; and political cycles.
25 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate likely greenhouse contributions of methane emissions from solid waste landfills in the USA and evaluate their effect, evaluated over the short term, on the short-term greenhouse effect.
Abstract: The author estimates likely greenhouse contributions of methane emissions from solid waste landfills in the USA. These emissions appear significant: their effect, evaluated over the short term (
22 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that infertile conditions and complex ecological interactions often limit Improved plant growth under increasing CO2 atmospheres, and future policies to adapt to a CO2-rich world must not overstate benefits from these conditions, nor ignore their usefulness for increasing future agricultural yields or restoring degraded habitats.
Abstract: Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, a greenhouse gas, may also provide benefits for mankind: many plants grow better under increasing CO2 concentrations. Individuals have speculated that agricultural yields will increase up to 30% under future CO2 concentrations, and natural ecosystems will become more lush and resilient. However, infertile conditions and complex ecological interactions often limit Improved plant growth under increasing CO2 atmospheres. Future policies to adapt to a CO2-rich world must not overstate benefits from these conditions, nor ignore their usefulness for increasing future agricultural yields or restoring degraded habitats.
16 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors summarized some important lessons from experience of international environmental cooperation, focusing on institutional and procedural factors: participation; scope of the agenda; political leadership; incorporation of scientific knowledge; and design of the agreement.
Abstract: This article summarizes some Important lessons from experience of international environmental cooperation. The main focus in the first part Is on institutional and procedural factors: participation; scope of the agenda; political leadership; incorporation of scientific knowledge; and design of the agreement. The second part focuses on global climate negotiations: to what extent have they been conducted according to lessons learned? Bearing in mind that the greenhouse context is comparatively very complex, our impression is that the ‘match’ is quite good, although uneven. But, the prospects for an ecologically ‘strong’ climate convention seem grim. Procedural and institutional factors have limited significance when stakes are high.
TL;DR: The authors summarizes what has taken place in planning for research on the human components of global environmental change and assesses the readiness of the social science community to undertake large-scale research in this field.
Abstract: Although research on human interactions in global change is advancing rapidly, future research in this field will require changes in the scale and scope of social science research projects. The social sciences will also require new institutional structures that can organize and manage largescale, multinational, and multidisciplinary research. This article (a) summarizes what has taken place in planning for research on the human components of global environmental change; (b) assesses the readiness of the social science community to undertake large-scale research in this field; (c) identifies areas where large-scale research can and should be undertaken; and (d) suggests criteria that should guide the social science community as it moves towards large-scale research projects.
TL;DR: This paper identified four related questions that need to be asked and answered before agreements to respond to global warming will be possible, including which countries bear responsibility for causing the problem, what quantities and mix of greenhouse gases should each country be allowed to emit, which countries have the resources to do something about the problem and where are the best opportunities for undertaking projects to respond.
Abstract: Analysts have identified four related questions that need to be asked and answered before agreements to respond to global warming will be possible.1 Which countries bear responsibility for causing the problem? What quantities and mix of greenhouse gases should each country be allowed to emit? Which countries have the resources to do something about the problem? Where are the best opportunities for undertaking projects to respond to the problem? Failure to distinguish among these four questions, or willingness to accept superficial answers, promotes unnecessary controversy.
TL;DR: A major part of human-induced climate change can be controlled by balancing the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Natural sinks are decreasing because coral reefs, as well as rain forests, are being destroyed at an increasing rate.
Abstract: A major part of human-induced climate change can be controlled by balancing the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Natural sinks are decreasing because coral reefs, as well as rain forests, are being destroyed at an increasing rate. To balance CO2 flows it will be necessary to restore and protect both these tropical ecosystems and/or to make drastic cuts in fossil-fuel use. If this is not done, the rural poor will have little choice but to destroy remaining forests and coral reefs. Stabilization of CO2 is technically feasible and cheaper than adapting to climate change. It is also extremely urgent because many coral reef ecosystems may already be near their upper temperature limits.
TL;DR: An evolutionary perspective is needed that favours the reproduction of caretakers of the environment, rather than the dominance of fertility, or the creation of a world controlled by medicine and biotechnology, with natural selection entirely absent.
Abstract: Mankind, the intelligent new species, has created problems for itself and the biosphere. In response, the author argues an evolutionary perspective is needed that favours the reproduction of caretakers of the environment, rather than the dominance of fertility, or the creation of a world controlled by medicine and biotechnology, with natural selection entirely absent.
TL;DR: The UNU Monitor is a quarterly review of the current research, publications and forthcoming projects by the United Nations University (UNU) in the area of global environmental change as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The UNU Monitor is a quarterly review of the current research, publications and forthcoming projects by the United Nations University (UNU) in the area of global environmental change. Related activities by other institutions active in the ‘Human Dimensions of Global Change Programme’ are also reported. The Monitor is compiled by the UNU Academic Division in Tokyo. The topic of this issue's Monitor is ‘Environmental change and international law’. Following the ‘Earth Summit’ in June international law has to cope with a variety of challenges, from cross-national accords to enforcement of international agreements. Professor Edith Brown Weiss of Georgetown University, coordinator of the UNU project on ‘Global Change and International Law’ and the editor of the resulting UNU Press book, outlines the issues at stake. For further information on UNU's global change agenda, contact Mr Dieter Koenig or Dr Juha Uitto, UNU, Toho-Seimei-Building, 15-1 Shibuya-2-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150, Japan.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe recent efforts by the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Commission (SUPARCO) to identify major pollutants, including the particulate content of ambient air; aerosols; and the content of gases such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, and carbon monoxide.
Abstract: Information about air quality in Third World cities is sparse, but air pollution problems are believed to be serious and increasing. The authors describe recent efforts by the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Commission (SUPARCO) to identify major pollutants, including the particulate content of ambient air; aerosols; and the content of gases such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, and carbon monoxide.
TL;DR: The fact that the undoubtedly serious issue of climatic change has been so dominant in the environmental debate has led to neglect of other extremely significant problems as discussed by the authors, especially in the developing world, require urgent attention by both rich and poor nations.
Abstract: The fact that the undoubtedly serious issue of climatic change has been so dominant in the environmental debate has led to neglect of other extremely significant problems. Threats to the environment other than those posed by greenhouse gases, especially in the developing world, require urgent attention by both rich and poor nations.
TL;DR: The Pacific Science Association (PSA) held the XVII Pacific Science Congress (PSC) in 1991 as discussed by the authors, with the overall theme "Challenge of Change", which was built around six sections among which global environmental change in the Pacific figured prominently.
Abstract: At the end of May 1991, Honolulu was the venue of the XVII Pacific Science Congress. It was the most recent of the major gatherings, every four years, of the Pacific Science Association, now over seventy years old. The meeting was attended by more than 1500 scientists from over 50 countries. The programme, with the overall theme ‘The Challenge of Change ’, was built around six sections among which global environmental change in the Pacific figured prominently indeed.
TL;DR: The debate about global warming has only recently developed into a truly ‘global’ debate as discussed by the authors, and recent reports and commentaries coming from the South have presented the developing countries' perspective on the global situation.
Abstract: The debate about global warming has only recently developed into a truly ‘global’ debate Recent reports and commentaries coming from the South have presented the developing countries' perspective on the global situation The current debate challenges assumptions in the North and suggests that all countries should look first to their own role in the development of the problem, and the solution to it
TL;DR: In this article, it is shown that evolving knowledge about ecological, technological and economic aspects of the ozone problem revealed that actors faced a quite 'benign' political problem, and that ignoring problem characteristics may result in misleading conclusions about the applicability of any lessons learned.
Abstract: It is important to distinguish between a problem and the problem-solving capacity invested in its solution. Applying this perspective to the global ozone cooperation process it is shown that evolving knowledge about ecological, technological and economic aspects of the ozone problem revealed that actors faced a quite ‘benign’ political problem. While the ozone-layer negotiations constitute a valuable example of international cooperation, ignoring problem characteristics may result in misleading conclusions about the applicability of any lessons learned.
TL;DR: In this article, a scheme involving international subsidies in the form of Special Drawing Rights issued via the intermediation of the World Bank is proposed to deal with global environmental problems, where the developed countries as gainers from policies designed to arrest the decline in the quality of the global environment can compensate developing countries as losers.
Abstract: Global environmental degradation provides an opportunity for Paretoefficient gains. The developed countries as gainers from policies designed to arrest the decline in the quality of the global environment can compensate developing countries as losers and still gain. The opportunity for gain emerges from different preference patterns associated with different levels of income and related differences in time preference rates. After critically investigating various proposals for dealing with global environmental problems the author puts forward a scheme involving international subsidies in the form of Special Drawing Rights issued via the intermediation of the World Bank. This, it is argued, overcomes many of the difficulties associated with other proposals.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that short-term goals have led to decision making which does not cater for the future evolutionary health of the human species, and that it is essential to harmonize shortterm actions with long-term desires, and to ensure that those longterm desires are formulated and commonly held.
Abstract: The author argues that short-term goals have led to decision making which does not cater for the future evolutionary health of the human species. It is essential to harmonize short-term actions with long-term desires — and to ensure that those long-term desires are formulated and commonly held. In the context of the many problems facing us, an argument is put forward for a programme of geotherapy and a system of global bioethics which would direct and protect our evolution.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that, aside from domestic political characteristics, other factors contributing to effective implementation of international agreements are their structure, requirements, and expectations, including a sufficient number of relevant participants in negotiations to enhance their legitimacy, reliance on confidence-building to deter non-compliance, stating precisely the signatory obligations, and designing treaties to be renegotiable in the face of changing scientific, political, and economic conditions.
Abstract: Ensuring that treaties designed to manage global climate change are ‘implementable’ is an important negotiating challenge. Implementable agreements have a reasonable chance of being ratified by nation states that are the greatest contributors to the problem; are acceptable to parties with the resources to do something about it; and induce voluntary compliance. This article contends that, aside from domestic political characteristics, other factors contributing to effective implementation of international agreements are their structure, requirements, and expectations. Factors that optimize implementable agreements include: a sufficient number of relevant participants in negotiations to enhance their legitimacy; reliance on confidence-building to deter non-compliance; stating precisely the signatory obligations; and designing treaties to be renegotiable in the face of changing scientific, political, and economic conditions. Global environmental agreements most likely to obtain signatory compliance will avoid overly stringent standards; allow variable compliance and discretion in implementation; consult domestic interests at each stage of agreement ‘design’ and execution; permit transfers of resources and technology; and rely on ‘functional integration’ to build confidence.
TL;DR: In this paper, the World Resources Institute dropped its Global Index of net emissions because the scientific validity of the Index has been challenged by many experts, and the idea of a global index was preserved, but with the Centre for Science and Environment calculations substituted for the WRI ones.
Abstract: Should the World Resources Institute drop its Global Index of net emissions because the scientific validity of the Index has been challenged by many experts? 1 Or should the idea of a global index be preserved, but with the Centre for Science and Environment calculations substituted for the WRI ones?
TL;DR: Agarwal and Narain this paper provocatively question the conclusions, the underlying methods and the database of the World Resources Institute (WRI) and suggest that the definition of responsibility for emissions is challenging both scientifically and politically and that it requires more serious effort from both developed and developing countries.
Abstract: The essence of the conclusions of the World Resources Institute 1 is aptly reflected in the Gujarati proverb, ‘What is mine is mine and what is yours is ours’. Agarwal and Narain provocatively question the conclusions, the underlying methods and the database. 2 What is clear is that the definition of responsibility for emissions is challenging both scientifically and politically, and that it requires more serious effort from both developed and developing countries.