Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 1994"

Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity

Abstract: Coping with climatic variations or future climate change must be rooted in a full understanding of the complex structures and causes of present vulnerability, and how it may evolve over the coming decades. A theory of the social vulnerability of food insecurity draws upon explanations in human ecology, expanded entitlements and political economy to map the risk of exposure to harmful perturbations, ability to cope with crises, and potential for recovery. Vulnerable socio-economic groups in Zimbabwe and the potential effects of climate change illustrate some of the applications of the theory.

Global climate protection policy: the limits of scientific advice: Part 1

Abstract: The close links between science, technology and politics in environmental policy are more often asserted than demonstrated empirically. This paper attempts to do this for climate change policy by analysing the role played by the international institutions of science and their advice in the preparation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The emergence and nature of scientific advice are analysed in Part 1. Part 2 traces subsequent political impacts and argues that research institutions tend to produce ambiguous advice, while politics will use scientific uncertainty to advance other agendas. The scientific bodies set up in the 1980s to advise governments on climate change policy emerged from the globally coordinated research community which acted primarily as a lobby for its own research agendas dedicated to the modelling of planet Earth and the development of alternative energy sources. Reactions to the energy policy implications of early advice, as well as the political agendas which attached themselves to it, led to the demise of an independent advisory body of scientists and its replacement by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The paper offers a tentative explanation of the IPCC experience and discusses the implications of that experience for international environmental policy. IPCC advice was necessarily ambivalent and too weak, by itself, to Initiate an active global environmental policy. International negotiations resulted in a research-intensive international treaty reflecting scientific uncertainty rather than environmental precaution. The primary interest of research is the creation of concern in order to demonstrate policy relevance and attract funding. This policy relevance, and therefore the need for scientific advice, decline rapidly once a problem is actually dealt with by regulatory, technological or behavioural change.

Climate change implications for Europe: An application of the ESCAPE model☆

Abstract: Policy makers, charged both with identifying possible national response strategies to climate change and with negotiating international conventions and protocols, need tools which enable them to estimate the implications for climate change of a wide range of policy options and which summarize the uncertainties surrounding global climate change. One such tool, recently constructed for the Environment Directorate of the Commission of the European Communities,1 consists of an interactive climate change impact assessment model called ESCAPE. This paper describes the model framework and illustrates the use of ESCAPE using a range of input scenarios reflecting different global policy, economic and technological futures. Three important characteristics of the global climate change problem are well illustrated: past emissions of greenhouse gases and the inertia of the global development path have committed the world to future warming irrespective of current and near-future policy interventions; the efficacy of a climate policy implemented solely within the EC on altering the course of future climate change is very small; and the impacts of climate change on the economy and environment of the European Community differ markedly between northern and southern Europe.

Climate change and world food supply, demand and trade: Who benefits, who loses?

Abstract: This paper summarizes the findings of a major interdisciplinary research effort by scientists in 25 countries. The study examined the potential biophysical responses of major food crops to changing atmospheric composition and climate, and projected potential socioeconomic consequences. In a first step crop models were used to estimate how changing climatic conditions might alter yields of major crops at a number of sites representing both major production areas and vulnerable regions at low, mid and high latitudes. Then a dynamic recursive national-level model of the world food system was used to assess socio-economic impacts for the period 1990 up to year 2060.

The ideas of secondary school children concerning ozone layer damage

Abstract: The understanding of pupils between the ages of 11 and 16 about the ozone layer — what it is, what will damage it and what will be the likely result of such damage — has been studied. Following the use of a preliminary open-form questionnaire, the ideas of a large cohort of children have been probed by closed-form questionnaire and by interviews with a subset of this group. The authors explain that most pupils seem aware that the ozone layer is a layer of gas around Earth, but less sure what that gas is. They also know that it protects Earth from ultra-violet rays from the sun, and that further depletion will allow more ultra-violet to Earth and cause more skin cancer. Most also know that one cause of depletion is the use of CFCs, but many confuse the depletion of the ozone layer with the greenhouse effect and other forms of atmospheric pollution. The authors provide evidence to suggest that such confusion of ideas is strongly held and that, even with this relatively new and abstract phenomenon, ideas are held in a consistent and similar framework by most pupils.

The economic costs of global warming damage: A survey

Abstract: This paper provides an overview on literature dealing with an economic assessment of expected global warming damage. While a relatively large body of literature exists on other economic aspects of global warming, in particular the costs of carbon abatement, the question of greenhouse damage valuation has gained little attention so far. The first part of the paper surveys the results of existing analyses on the costs of global warming. The second part discusses the main shortcomings of these studies and the main problems faced by researchers in this area.

Using sustainable development: The business case

Abstract: Sustainable development has been adopted by a variety of interests in the international environmental debate, each of which constructs the meaning of the phrase in its own terms. The author analyses the publications and activities of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) to show that a business construction of sustainable development may exclude key elements identified by other commentators, especially three different forms of equity (intergeneratlonal, intragenerational and international), and concentrate instead on market mechanisms and technological change. This links sustainable development primarily to growth, and only secondarily to environmental quality or social equality, and demonstrates how a potentially radical notion can be used by reformist groups to influence the policy debate.

Climate Change and World Food Supply, Demand, and Trade

Abstract: This chapter summarizes the findings of a major interdisciplinary research effort by scientists in 25 countries. The study examined the potential biophysical responses of major food crops to changing atmospheric composition and climate, and projected potential socio-economic consequences. In a first step, crop models were used to estimate how changing climatic conditions may alter yields of major crops at a number of sites representing both major production areas and vulnerable regions at low, mid, and high latitudes. Then socio-economic impacts were assessed for the period 1990 up to the Year 2060 with a dynamic recursive model of the world food system. The results of the assessment suggest that a doubling of the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration will have little effect on global food production levels. Globally, impacts on crop production will be small compared to the required production increases between now and the middle of the next century. But, under all simulated scenarios possible negative impacts were mostly observed in low latitudes thus tending to increase the disparity between developed and developing countries.

Identifying regional goals and policy concerns associated with global climate change

Abstract: This paper presents a systematic approach, assisted by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and goal programming (GP), to build a bridge between science and policy in a regional climate change impact study. The approach is being applied in the Mackenzie Basin of Canada. The study focuses on the identification and specification of regional policy concerns relating to climate change. The approach attempts to ensure that the outputs of the climate change impact study reflect some major concerns of various regional ‘stake holders’.

An economic analysis of potential impacts of climate change in Egypt

Abstract: Projections of climate impacts on crop yields simulated for different General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios are used, in a recursively dynamic general equilibrium framework, to account for potential economy-wide impacts of climate change in Egypt. Comparing these impact projections to those obtained under a reference, business-as-usual, scenario assuming some moderate changes in the political, economic or technological spheres, indicates that global warming has potentially negative effects. The analysis is based on a global assessment of potential climate change-induced variations in world commodity production and trade. The Egyptian agricultural sector, and the non-agricultural sector to a lesser extent, are projected to be increasingly less self-sufficient. Specific potential adverse impacts are identified. The simulation results show that high-cost adaptation measures involving major changes in the agricultural system and practices may mitigate these adverse impacts. Stimulating economic development of the rural areas and creating appropriate conditions for effective diffusion and development of technologies — particularly for the agricultural sector — would seem a desirable strategy. Perhaps, more importantly, the simulation results show that the assumption of exogenously determined technological progress may be inappropriate, in which case the potential adverse impacts of a future warming of the global climate are likely to be fewer than is indicated in this study — if prevailing constraints on productivity growth in the major food and feed grains are ‘released’ by endogenous advances in technology.

Implications of policies to prevent climate change for future food security

Abstract: There have been a number of comprehensive and detailed studies on the question of what climate change might do to agriculture (Parry et al., 1988; Smith and Tirpak, 1989; Rosenberg, 1993; Council on Agricultural science and Technology (CAST), 1992; Houghton et al, 1990, 1992; National Academy of Sciences, 1992; and others). The potential for adaptation of agriculture to climate change has been evaluated in a number of these studies and in Rosenberg (1992). There has been, however, little if any systematic analysis of how attempts to mitigate or avoid climate change might affect agriculture. Our aim in this paper is to explore this question. Data and analyses on which to draw are limited, so the results of our exploration are preliminary, at best.

New data on air pollution in the former Soviet Union

Abstract: The former Soviet Union was the world's second largest producer of harmful emissions. Total emissions in the USSR in 1988 were about 79% of the US total. Considering that the Soviet GNP was only some 54% of that of the USA, this means that the Soviet Union generated 1.5 times more pollution than the USA per unit of GNP. The governmental concerns about the size of USSR emissions were barely noticeable before the late 1980s; in the early 1990s the air pollution became an issue of great public attention — its economic priority, however, was changing slowly. This paper analyses the changes in fuel consumption by the Soviet industry during the last decade and makes available sets of data on air pollution in the former Soviet Union between 1980 and 1991. The temporal and spatial changes in emissions and ambient concentration of four major pollutants (suspended particles, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide) are examined, and contributions of different branches of industry and transport are considered. The information was obtained from the State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environment (Moscow). Summary data are presented in the main paper; full details are given in the accompanying appendix.

Climate change and world food security: Editorial

Abstract: What is known about the implications of climate change for world food security? This special issue draws on material presented at a recent international workshop at the University of Oxford. It focuses especially on the distributional impacts of a changing climate and the different levels and sources of vulnerability to environmental change. It reviews recent results from two international agricultural models and examines the potential impacts on agriculture of measures to prevent climate change. A companion special issue of the journal Food Policy addresses the regional and global context of future food security in relationship to a changing environment.

China's greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract: China is already the world's second largest producer of greenhouse gases, and its emissions will increase substantially during the coming generation. Rapid economic expansion will need much higher inputs of primary energy, and the continuing heavy reliance on coal will more than double the recent CO 2 emissions. Providing enough food for a population which is still growing at high absolute rates will require further intensification of farming resulting in higher releases of CH 4 and N 2 O. Consequently, China will become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases perhaps even during the 2010s, but almost inevitably before the year 2025.

Agricultural decollectivization and vulnerability to environmental change: A Bulgarian case study☆

Abstract: Is the transformation from Communism to a more market-based society making Bulgarians — and particularly farmers — more vulnerable to environmental change? Intensive, open-ended interviews suggest that government policies, new privatization laws and the nation's economic crisis are decreasing farmers' flexibility and removing social safety nets. Yet generalizations are difficult because implementation of the decollectivization process is different at each cooperative farm, thus creating varying levels of vulnerability. Easing the crisis is the tradition of familybased, small-plot gardening, which appears to ensure sufficient food for most Bulgarians.

GATT and the environment

Abstract: interests centre on a~ri~u~tura~ policy, resents a system of ~~ternat~~na1 law esoeciafk as it relates to the EuroDean whereby disputes between countries &ion. ’ can be resolved and common standards applied. Those concerned about global environmenta change also know that if we are to use resources responsibly, there is a need for international ‘law’. Despite this shared recagnition of the need for law and a mutual concern to use resources wisely, environmentalists and trade negotiators often find themselves at loggerheads. The latest GATT deal is attacked because of fears that it will lead to increased pressure on the resource base, Trade negotiators, however, fear that, behind a shield of environmental concern, countries will simply protect domestic industries. There is a distinction between the use of resources which are renewable and those which cannot be renewed. Economic activities, particularly agriculture, may use renewable resources. As a result there are calls to use ‘environmentally sensitive’ farming methods. Even this does not totally protect the environment,. Any agriculture enhances those aspects of nature which are helpful to food crops and animals. It makes the environment more valuable for food production but implies losses in other directions. An approach which sought to preserve the environment unchanged would thus inevitably conflict with actions, such as trade liberalization, which attempted to raise the overall level of real incomes.

Sustainable development planning and semi-arid regions

Abstract: The semi-arid regions of the developing countries are the most vulnerable regions of the world in regard to environmental and socio-economic conditions. It is likely that a business-as-usual scenario will show increased vulnerability in the future, with growing population and land use intensifying the pressure on land and water resources. Such an unsustainable path must be diverted to one of greater sustainability. This is especially difficult because of the immediate problems relating to the basic needs of the population. In this article, a methodology is discussed whereby global environmental and climate change issues are integrated into a comprehensive planning approach designed to pursue a more sustainable economic, social and environmental development. The methodological framework includes a number of steps or tasks dealing with the assessment of present sustainability, business-as-usual and alternative scenarios for one generation in the future, and vulnerability and impact assessments. The methodology should lead to the definition and implementation of a sustainable development strategy addressing current societal goals while taking into account local and global environmental change processes.

Modelling future acid deposition: A critical loads approach

Abstract: An atmospheric pollution model, the Harwell Trajectory Model, is used to explore the effects of a range of possible future emissions scenarios on levels of sulphur deposition and critical loads exceedence across the UK. The structure of the HTM and the basis of the critical loads concept are described. Model output is illustrated for emissions scenarios which reflect the possible effects of the 30% reduction in SO2 emissions demanded by the Helsinki Protocol and the UK's current commitments under the LCPD to a 60% reduction by 2003. Emissions reductions are achieved both by blanket reductions and by targeting reductions on particular large sources. An emissions reduction of 30% would have little environmental benefit for the UK as a whole. A 60% reduction leads to a much clearer change in the pattern of critical loads exceedence; targeted emissions reductions appear to be more effective still and point the way for future policy.

Why is environmental protection so slow

Abstract: An attempt is made to identify some of the main reasons why actions designed to reduce environmental degradation are both slow and insufficient. Scientists do not always present their results in a form that can easily be interpreted by policy makers. The general public is receiving insufficient objective information and therefore remains largely ignorant of what is at stake, making it more difficult to achieve a solid political base for action. For one reason or another, some scientists argue that present knowledge is insufficient for response measures. Even if they represent a minority opinion, their views are often favoured by governments.

The United Nations framework convention on climate change: The first conference of the parties opening in Berlin

Abstract: The great expectation with which many anticipate the arrival of the first meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP I), bears some resemblance to the premier of a Hollywood thriller. Fans of the Climate Change convention, however, may be disappointed to realise that COP I, scheduled to begin on 28 March 1995 in Berlin, will involve the same cast of characters that dominated the negotiations prior to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, and which have kept the plot dragging during the Convention's ‘interim period’. Too much dialogue and not enough action, some would say. How well COP I plays with the public will depend on the ability of the Convention's Parties to make progress on the substantial agenda set in the text of the Convention.