scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question

Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 1997"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a framework for characterizing and understanding human adaptation to climate variabllily and change, recognizing the characteristics of climatic events, the ecological properties of systems which mediate effects, and the dlstinctions which are possible among different types of adaptation.
Abstract: Recent developments in both the policy arena and the climate impacts research community point to a growing interest in human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The importance of adaptation in the climate change question is affirmed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing Impacts and Adaptations and the IPCC’s more recent Second Assessment Report. Yet, the nature and processes of human adaptation to climate are poorly understood and rarely investigated directly. Most often, human responses of one form or another are simply assumed in impacts research. Analyses that do address adaptation use a variety of interpretations and perspectives resulting in an incomplete, and at times inconsistent, understanding of human adaptation to environmental variations. This paper reviews and synthesizes perspectives from an eclectic body of scholarship to develop a framework for characterizing and understanding human adaptation to climatic variabllily and change. The framework recognizes the characteristics of climatic events, the ecological properties of systems which mediate effects, and the dlstinctions which are possible among different types of adaptation. A classification scheme is proposed for differentiating adaptation strategies.

523 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report on a study using focus groups drawn from different sections of the Lancashire public which sought to cast light on public understanding of and identification with sustainable development.
Abstract: It is increasingly recognized that the success of sustainable development initiatives depends on widespread public identification and support. Indeed, public participation has become a core component of the official discourse of sustainable development, particularly at local level. However to date there has been little research examining the ‘cultural’ factors governing the potential public uptake of sustainability. This paper reports on a study using focus groups drawn from different sections of the Lancashire public which sought to cast light on public understanding of and identification with sustainable development. Considerable public support was found for the idea that current ways of life are generating problems for the future and that economic activity would have to be held within environmental limits. However there was very little support for the idea that sustainabillty would be achieved through government and business initiatives. Government in particular was deeply mistrusted as part of the ‘system’ which was generating environmental and social problems. The paper argues that this mistrust in government and the lack of a sense of individual agency has serious implications for the political salience of sustainable development. Initiatives to generate public participation, particularly by providing information through sustalnability indicators, are unlikely to succeed unless this is addressed.

254 citations



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a method is proposed for natural resource policymakers to use in analyzing the need for anticipatory adaptation policies and the effectiveness of policy options to anticipate climate change, which enables policy makers to identify those anticipatory policies most in need of immediate implementation.
Abstract: It is not likely that efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions will completely eliminate the risk of climate change. Thus, policymakers will eventually have to address adaptation to the effects of climate change. Given the uncertainties about the timing, direction, and magnitude of regional climate change, it might seem preferable to postpone adaptive measures until after climate changes. Yet, this may not produce satisfactory results if climate change impacts are irreversible or catastrophic, long-lived resource systems are affected, or current trends make adaptation less likely to succeed in the future. In these cases, policy changes in anticipation of climate change may be justified. Anticipatory climate change measures need to be flexible—they should absorb impacts or enable a system to quickly recovery under a wide variety of climate situations. In addition, they should be economically efficient, that is their benefits should exceed their costs. Although many measures are appropriate anticipatory measures, not all of them need to be implemented now. Those most in need of immediate implementation should meet at least one of the following criteria: 1. (1) address irreversible or costly impacts; 2. (2) be urgent, i.e. reverse trends that make adoption of the measure more difficult over time; or 3. (3) address long-term decisions, such as building infrastructure. A method is proposed for natural resource policymakers to use in analyzing the need for anticipatory adaptation policies and the effectiveness of policy options to anticipate climate change. This method enables policy makers to identify those anticipatory policies most in need of immediate implementation.

157 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine local competences in Sweden and the UK and look at the responses to the climate change issue by six local authorities, focussing on energy related developments.
Abstract: While climate change is obviously a global environmental problem, there is nevertheless potential for policy initiatives at the local level. Although the competences of local authorities vary between countries, they all have some responsibilities in the crucial areas of energy and transport policy. This paper examines local competences in Sweden and the UK and looks at the responses to the climate change issue by six local authorities, focussing on energy related developments. The points of departure are very different in the two countries. Swedish local authorities are much more independent than UK ones, especially through the ownership of local energy companies. Yet, UK local authorities are relatively active in the climate change domain, at least in terms of drawing up response strategies, which they see as an opportunity for reasserting their role, after a long period of erosion of their powers. Furthermore, there is more scope for action in the UK, as in Sweden many potential measures, especially in the energy efficiency field, have already been taken. However, in both countries climate change is only a relatively marginal area of local environmental policy making and the political will, as well as the financial resources, for more radical measures are often absent.

102 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors lay the conceptual groundwork for coastal zone management or urban planning based on an "ecomanagement" or ecosystem approach, and some of the implications of studying coastal cities in the context of rapid global change are outlined, as a preliminary agenda for further research.
Abstract: Coastal cities are critical areas for global environmental change, but they have not been a focus of study in coastal zone management or urban planning. This paper lays the conceptual groundwork for such a focus, based on an ‘ecomanagement’ or ecosystem approach. The unique ‘bi-polar’ aspect of the juxtaposition of a complex natural system with a complex built system is stressed and explored. Among the benefits of an ecosystem approach is that it provides a common, scientifically defensible, ground for diverse visions and jurisdictions in a designated area. The history of recent ecosystemic and metabolic studies of cities is reviewed, as well as the implications of the intensification of use of the natural ecosystem for coastal city purposes. A series of brief case studies of developed and developing country cities is presented: Dakar, Hanoi, Alexandria, Toronto, and Venice. Finally, some of the implications of studying coastal cities in the context of rapid global change are outlined, as a preliminary agenda for further research.

102 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Ten reasons why regional studies are needed in support of the development of full-scale lAMs are given and a strategic cyclical scaling exercise involving regional and global integrated modelling frameworks is proposed.
Abstract: Full-scale integrated assessment models (lAMs) allow many components of the global climate change problem to be examined in one framework. The chief advantage of the IAM approach over less complete modelling frameworks is that the socio-economic and environmental consequences of policy choices aimed at abating or adapting to climate change can be evaluated in their totality. However, the highly aggregate functional forms that lAMs currently embed are lacking in sufficient regional and sectoral detail to be totally credible. In this paper, ten reasons why regional studies are needed in support of the development of full-scale lAMs are given. A strategic cyclical scaling exercise involving regional and global integrated modelling frameworks is proposed.

93 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated to what extent the rate of tropical deforestation is exacerbated by the democratic/non-democratic nature of the governments in power and constructed a democracy index variable for fifty-five countries across the four regions of the tropical world.
Abstract: The alarming rate of depletion of tropical forests and the economic, social, and environmental implications are serious issues facing the world. Very prominent among the myriad factors at play is the political environment within these tropical countries. This study therefore investigates to what extent the rate of tropical deforestation is exacerbated by the democratic/non-democratic nature of the governments in power. We construct a democracy index variable for fifty-five countries across the four regions of the tropical world. The average annual deforestation from 1981–1985, is compared to the democracy index variable. We find a strong negative correlation between the level of democracy and the rate of tropical forest exploitation. The global policy implications of this finding are outlined.

86 citations





Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the question to what extent such migrations are predictable, and focused on the prediction of migrations caused by the declining availability of food per capita in the developing world and the migration from low lying coastal areas driven by the rising sea level.
Abstract: In view of the increasing degradation of the global environment it can be expected that the number of environmental refugees will be increasing significantly during the next few decades. An attempt is made to examine the question to what extent such migrations are predictable? In particular, attention is given to the prediction of migrations caused by the declining availability of food per capita in the developing world, and the migration from low lying coastal areas driven by the rising sea level. Although it is not possible to make detailed predictions of such migrations, there are compelling reasons to believe they can be predicted with sufficient reliability to motivate implementation of mitigation measures.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The European Union is in an excellent position to take on a leading role in establishing a process of sequential decision-making which is flexible, innovative and participatory as discussed by the authors, which can lead beyond existing alternatives of taxation and regulation as defined by a seemingly omniscient political authority.
Abstract: In the process which has led to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the European Union played an active role. In those years, the long-run perspective of European climate policy was geared to the idea of a carbon tax, while the US and OPEC formed a blocking coalition. Meanwhile, the US has adopted a more open attitude to climate policy, but it is highly unlikely that a substantial carbon tax will be implemented in the US in the foreseeable future. Forming a political consensus around this instrument has proved very difficult in Europe as well. Clearly, a fresh approach to climate policy is warranted. We argue that this approach should consist of putting into place a process of sequential decision making which is flexible, innovative and participatory. Such a process would lead beyond existing alternatives of taxation and regulation as defined by a seemingly omniscient political authority. Its rationale lies in the recognition of a ‘cost barrier’ which can be surmounted by the combination of patient multilateral negotiation, innovative business initiatives, and resonance with public opinion. The European Union is in an excellent position to take on a leading role in establishing such a process. Europe's special opportunity lies in the fact that her citizenry is supportive of ambitious climate policy as nowhere else in the world. Furthermore, the current situation of the European economies invites, and even demands, fresh thinking about the economic opportunities offered by a transition to sustainability.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Ten main ‘acid answers’ and lessons based on the literature so far are suggested: LRTAP is a high-compliance regime, domestic political factors must also be included in order to understand compliance levels, and improving knowledge of the regime-domestic interplay is amongst the main challenges for further research.
Abstract: The article reviews current literature on LRTAP implementation and effectiveness, and suggests ten main ‘acid answers’ and lessons based on the literature so far: first, LRTAP is a high-compliance regime; second, important causal factors for compliance levels are found outside the sphere of ‘environmental polities’; third, ‘national interests’ based on cost/ benefit calculations can roughly predict levels of compliance; fourth, especially in the NO x context, domestic political factors must also be included in order to understand compliance levels; fifth, although LRTAP has had important arena functions, much of the reductions would have taken place anyway; sixth, the transboundary acidification problems have been reduced, but the transboundary ‘solution’ and getting below ‘critical loads’ in both the rural and urban environment is a venture extending well into the next century; seventh, LRTAP's scientific-political complex has been very valuable; eighth, provision of information has been the important LRTAP mechanism; ninth, research has so far been mainly complementary; tenth, improving knowledge of the regime-domestic interplay, including institutional access and participation issues as well as the EC-LRTAP interplay, is amongst the main challenges for further research.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the notion of heritage and its application to world heritage status are discussed, and this notion is applied to the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia in an attempt to answer the question, "Does the aral Sea merit heritage status?".
Abstract: In November 1972, the United Nations developed the World Heritage Convention in recognition of the need for protecting valuable cultural and natural sites of global importance. The convention was designed to identify and protect heritage sites worldwide. Although the Aral Sea has not yet been proposed by any of the Central Asian states as a world heritage site, it meets many of the criteria designated by the Convention as a site meriting such status. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, the notion of heritage and its application to world heritage status are discussed. Second, this notion is applied to the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia in an attempt to answer the question, ‘Does the Aral Sea merit heritage status?’. Finally, ‘environmental Justice’ issues, which might arise as a result of such a designation, are discussed.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the processes that occur within industrialization and reveal aspects that are obscured by trend data, in particular, the involvement of transnational corporations (TNCs) in industrialisation and environmental impacts.
Abstract: Trend data show the overall, aggregate picture of industrial development; they do not provide explanations nor show processes underlying trends in global industrialization. Examination of processes that occur within industrialization reveals aspects that are obscured by trend data, in particular, the Involvement of transnational corporations (TNCs) in industrialization and environmental impacts. Knowledge of processes occurring behind development practices may help to formulate policies addressing problems that are associated with industrialization, such as greenhouse gas emissions and national accountability. A greater understanding of the processes of industrialization may help to identify problems and find solutions that have both global and regional effects.





Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the potential role of joint implementation in contributing to the achievement of the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, namely, the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels which are non-threatening to human societies and ecosystems.
Abstract: This paper critically assesses the potential role of joint implementation (JI) in contributing to the achievement of the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, namely, the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels which are non-threatening to human societies and ecosystems. This requires, among other actions, a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions within the next few decades, which in turn requires limitation of population growth, dramatic reductions in industrialized country per capita emissions, and sharply constrained growth in per capita emissions from the developing world. We examine the potential role of JI in assisting development aimed at meeting basic human needs — a pre-requisite for population stabilization — and conclude that JI has little to offer and may indeed be counterproductive. We also examine JI as a vehicle for technology transfer, and conclude that, if JI is to play a useful role here, it must be accompanied by fundamental reform in the nature of current technology transfer and official development assistance. Furthermore, for JI to be effective in limiting the growth of developing country emissions through technology transfer, accelerated development of advanced and renewably based energy technologies by the industrialized world is required, which is unlikely unless these countries commit to making strong emissions reductions of their own.



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a comparison of the national inventories in both the IPCC and CORINAIR formats shos some revealing discrepancies between the two systems at both sector and gas level that by chance cancel out when aggregated at the EU level.
Abstract: There are several different approaches currently taken by the 15 EU countries in compiling their IPCC inventories for the FCCC. Six countries (France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain) use the CORINAIR system and then aggregate and reformat the data into the required IPCC format. Of the remaining countries, two strictly follow the IPCC methodology (Finland and Greece), five (Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom) estimate emissions using a combination of national and IPCC methodologies, while the final two (Austria and Belgium) use a combination of national and CORINAIR methodologies (transformed to IPCC). Comparison of the national inventories in both the IPCC and CORINAIR formats shos some revealing discrepancies between the two systems at both sector and gas level that by chance cancel out when aggregated at the EU level.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a reshaping of old southern objections to international regulation in favour of a positive alternative strategy combining "soft law", alternative and community based forms of action, the participation of nongovernment actors at national and international levels, and voluntary reporting is described.
Abstract: Historically, northern governments prefer a model of international environmental regulation based on legally binding international Conventions, treating direct UN involvement warily. UNCED however saw a reshaping of old southern objections to international regulation in favour of a positive alternative strategy combining ‘soft law’, alternative and community based forms of action, the participation of nongovernment actors at national and international levels, and voluntary reporting. This is the strategy embodied in Agenda 21 and in the Commission on Sustainable Development, which monitors its implementation. At Rio, this strategy was particularly attractive to the South's middle sized newly industrializing powers, interested in using the UN to set limits to the competitive pressure of different northern based trading blocs. It was also acceptable to countries in Africa and small island states faced with a combination of economic threats and the prospect of climate change. At the Commission, however, governments and their new allies are finding the change harder to implement in practice than it was to agree in theory. The result is that the old model of negotiations designed to produce an ever increasing number of barely enforceable new international environmental agreements, has been rearing its head within the Commission, even as the existing Convention on Climate Change threatens to fail to provide an answer to the problems of reducing northern energy consumption.