Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2002"

Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity

Abstract: This paper offers a practically motivated method for evaluating systems’ abilities to handle external stress. The method is designed to assess the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems’ coping capacities by focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity. The method should be sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse applications whose contexts are location specific and path dependent without imposing the straightjacket constraints of a “one size fits all” cookbook approach. Nonetheless, the method should produce unitless indicators that can be employed to judge the relative vulnerabilities of diverse systems to multiple stresses and to their potential interactions. An artificial application is employed to describe the development of the method and to illustrate how it might be applied. Some empirical evidence is offered to underscore the significance of the determinants of adaptive capacity in determining vulnerability; these are the determinants upon which the method is constructed. The method is, finally, applied directly to expert judgments of six different adaptations that could reduce vulnerability in the Netherlands to increased flooding along the Rhine River.

Global environmental consequences of tourism

Abstract: In 2000, almost 700 million international tourist arrivals were counted worldwide. Even though a global activity of this scale can be assumed to have a substantial impact on the environment, its consequences have never been assessed and quantified. In this contribution, five major aspects of the leisure-related alteration of the environment are investigated: (1) the change of land cover and land use, (2) the use of energy and its associated impacts, (3) the exchange of biota over geographical barriers and the extinction of wild species, (4) the exchange and dispersion of diseases, and (5), a psychological consequence of travel, the changes in the perception and the understanding of the environment initiated by travel.

Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change

Abstract: Recent flooding and heavy precipitation events in the US and worldwide have caused great damage to crop production. Ifthe frequency of these weather extremes were to increase in the near future, as recent trends for the US indicate and as projected by global climate models (e.g., US National Assessment, Overview Report, 2001, The Potential Consequences ofClimate Variability and Change, National Assesment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; Houghton et al., 2001, IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 335pp.), the cost ofcrop losses in the coming decades could rise dramatically. Yet current assessments of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have not quantified the negative effects on crop production from increased heavy precipitation and flooding (Impacts ofclimate change and variability on agriculture, in: US National Assessment Foundation Document, 2001. National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Washington DC.). In this work, we modify a dynamic crop model in order to simulate one important effect of heavy precipitation on crop growth, plant damage from excess soil moisture. We compute that US corn production losses due to this factor, already significant under current climate, may double during the next thirty years, causing additional damages totaling an estimated $3 billion per year. These costs may either be borne directly by those impacted or transferred to private or governmental insurance and disaster relief programs. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’

Abstract: Climate impact assessment needs to take account of two interrelated processes: socio-economic change and climate change. To date, future change in socio-economic systems has not been sufficiently integrated with an analysis of climate change impacts. Participative and synthetic scenario approaches offer a means for dealing with critical issues of indeterminacy, innovation, reflexivity and framing in analysing change in socio-economic systems, paving the way for a coherent way of handling of socio-economic futures in impact assessment. We argue that scenarios represent heuristic tools that encourage social learning in climate impact assessment. The advantages and disadvantages of a scenario-based approach are explored using examples from regional climate impact assessment in the UK.

Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications

Abstract: Bangladesh is very prone to flooding due to its location at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers and because of the hydro-meteorological and topographical characteristics of the basins in which it is situated. On average, annual floods inundate 20.5 per cent area of the country and this can reach as high as about 70 per cent during an extreme flood event. Floods cause serious damage to the economy of Bangladesh, a country with a low per capita income. Global warming caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. The use of climate change scenarios from four general circulation models as input into hydrological models demonstrates substantial increases in mean peak discharges in the GBM rivers. These changes may lead to changes in the occurrence of flooding with certain magnitude. Extreme flooding events will create a number of implications for agriculture, flood control and infrastructure in Bangladesh.

A look in the mirror: reflection on participation in Integrated Assessment from a methodological perspective

Abstract: Participatory methods are increasingly used in Integrated Assessment (IA). The aim of an interdisciplinary working group at the International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) was to list participatory methods from the scholarly literature scattered over various disciplines. In this paper, we summarise our findings. Recent experiences with participation in IA are discussed from a methodological perspective. It is argued that it is of crucial importance that principles, considerations, arguments, design choices, the process itself and lessons learned are reported to provide a basis for the IA community to reflect on experiences and to stimulate theory development.

Bioenergy and water - the implications of large-scale bioenergy production for water use and supply.

Abstract: There are major expectations that bioenergy will supply large amounts of CO2 neutral energy for the future. A large-scale expansion of energy crop production would lead to a large increase in evapotranspiration appropriation for human uses, potentially as large as the present evapotranspiration from global cropland. In some countries this could lead to further enhancement of an already stressed water situation. But there are also countries where such impacts are less likely to occur. One major conclusion for future research is that assessments of bioenergy potentials need to consider restrictions from competing demand for water resources. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe

Abstract: For the last decade, climate scientists have improved their skill at predicting seasonal rainfall patterns in many parts of the world based on observations of sea surface temperatures. Making forecasts useful to decision-makers, especially subsistence farmers in developing countries, remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we discuss a set of six constraints limiting the usefulness of forecasts: credibility, legitimacy, scale, cognitive capacity, procedural and institutional barriers, and available choices. We identify how these constraints have in fact limited forecast use so far, and propose means of overcoming them. We then discuss a pilot project in Zimbabwe, where we test our proposals. Drawing from two years’ observation, we offer lessons to guide future efforts at effective forecast communication.

Technological regimes, path dependency and the environment

Abstract: The relationship between technological change and the environment has been a critical issue for environmental policy for over two decades. Technology is seen as both the root-cause of many environmental problems, while also offering the means for reducing the ecological footprint of human activities. Recently this debate has become more urgent, partly as a result of renewed interest in policy communities, and partly as an outcome of conceptual and theoretical developments in the study of innovation and the environment. Policy communities are faced with major challenges including questions about how industrial economies can be radically decarbonised, and how step-jumps in resource efficiency may be achieved. New research on innovation and the environment emphasises the importance of looking at the level of technological systems and at the link between technologies and the institutional settings they are embedded within. In The Netherlands this has led to an important policy debate about the management of ‘system innovations’ in pursuit of high-level sustainability objectives (VROM, 2001). How did we get to this point in the debate? What do we know about these larger-scale technological transitions? What can we say about their management?

Consumption, human needs, and global environmental change

Abstract: Rapidly increasing levels of consumption of materials, energy, and services are one of the fundamental drivers of global and local environmental change. Yet consumption is still a poorly understood phenomenon and the social, cultural, economic, and psychological variables that determine consumption have not been clearly identified. Effective policymaking and prediction is impossible without knowing what determines and changes consumption levels. Diverse social-scientific models of consumption are largely incommensurate, poorly articulated, and untested. Rather than argue for one fundamental cause, this author reviews a number of alternative theoretical approaches, and then proposes a heterodox ‘‘multigenic’’ theory based on the work of Pierre Bourdieu. Such a theory accepts multiple types of causes of consumption, operating at different analytical levels, from the individual, through household, community, and ultimately to nations and other groups. Factors impelling and restraining consumption can therefore be balanced or unbalanced by relatively minor changes in a large number of interrelated variables. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leaders, pushers and laggards in the making of the climate regime

Abstract: The primary motivation for this paper is to illuminate the role of leadership exerted by individuals, institutions and nation-states at various stages of the global climate change regime. Four forms of leadership: intellectual, instrumental, power-based, and directional, are identified. Next, theoretical claims about the dominance of particular forms of leadership at particular stages of regime formation are empirically tested by examining the agenda setting and negotiation phases of the climate regime. This analysis tends to support theoretical claims that intellectual leadership is particularly prominent during agenda setting, but evidence to support the influence of entrepreneurial leaders during negotiations is mixed at best for the climate regime. Structural or power based leadership meanwhile was largely absent during agenda setting of the climate regime but has been in clear evidence through the negotiations of the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

Population growth and loss of arable land

Abstract: I discuss the loss of cropland in developing countries in connection with the ongoing land conversion caused by the growing population and socio-economic development, resulting in an increased demand for housing, industry, infrastructure, etc. Based on assumptions about the required space per capita for other purposes than agriculture, the portion of this area that is removed from presently used cropland, and the quality of the available land reserves, the required demand for land reserves has been calculated. The main conclusions are that during the next three decades (i) the loss of cropland is likely to be within the range 30–60 Mha, (ii) the reserve land utilized will be about 100–200 Mha, and (iii) the reserve land still in use after 30 years, about 50–100 Mha.

Socio-institutional dynamics and the political ecology of mangrove forest conservation in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract: Mangrove forests provide a range of ecological and socio-economic benefits in coastal zones throughout the world's tropical regions. Yet the conversion of mangrove forest, due in particular to aquaculture development, is occurring at a dramatic rate. Drawing on insights and concepts offered by political ecology and complex systems, processes of mangrove forest conversion and aquaculture development in the coastal zone of Banawa District, Central Sulawesi, are analyzed. This is accomplished by exploring: (1) the comparative benefits of aquaculture developments and intact mangrove forest ecosystems; (2) a policy narrative supportive of intensified aquaculture development at the expense of common property resource systems in the region; and (3) the manner in which this narrative interacts with cross-scale administrative, institutional, economic, socio-cultural and property rights dynamics. The analysis suggests that policy and management issues aimed at conserving mangrove forests and alleviating the ecological and socio-economic impacts of aquaculture development in the region are not simply a matter of government formulating, enforcing and monitoring regulations that guard against mangrove forest conversion. Rather, there is a need to formulate, propose, implement and monitor strategies that contest existing policy narratives and challenge entrenched economic interests and power relationships.

Social constructionism and the environment: through the quagmire

Abstract: Despite some excellent academic writings on the subject, confusion around the definition, application and value of social constructionism with respect to the environment is rife The purpose of this short piece is to clarify some misunderstandings by referring to literature that engages with ontology (what exists, or the nature of nature) and epistemology (what we can know or the status of knowledge of reality) I argue that some areas of social constructionism are perfectly capable of dealing with environmental change and can lead to highly fruitful analyses Following this, I address a point made by Blaikie (Global Environmental Change 6 (1996) 83) that “there remains a political and practical vacuum because few of this genre have suggested how diverse accounts of the world can be negotiated or reconciled to provide feasible paths for action” I argue that this does not necessarily need to be the case and present a philosophical perspective from which negotiation and reconciliation are feasible within the social constructionist paradigm

Population, income and ecological conditions as determinants of forest area variation in the tropics

Abstract: The underlying causes of forest area variation were studied by using data from the original forest assessments between 1970 and 1991 of FAO FORIS database representing 477 subnational geographical units in 67 tropical countries. Multiple regression modelling was applied to measure the effects. Five ecological variables were used to control the varying ecological conditions in the subnational units. Three variables were used to control the varying reliability of forest inventory data. Population and income variables were found to be significant factors explaining forest area variation after controlling for ecological variation. In particular population density and income per capita turned out to be significant underlying factors of deforestation. The overall conclusion is that determining the factors behind forest area variation helps explaining the causes of deforestation.

The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: Participatory Integrated Assessment In The Georgia Basin

Abstract: Integrated assessment (IA) is a rapidly evolving field and in recent years the introduction of participatory methods has resulted in the development of a more diverse set of tools. The Georgia Basin Futures Project is presented and reviewed in the context of this expanding portfolio of IA methodologies. The project is an ambitious attempt to combine qualitative scenario methods with a computer-based gaming tool on a regional scale. The paper suggests that the particular combination of methods and the scale of the analysis represent a viable model for the future regional IAs.

Scenarios for climate impact and adaptation assessment

Abstract: Amongst the most important gaps in our current knowledge of the potential effects of greenhouseinduced climate change are: (a) an insufficient picture of potential impacts in different parts of the world (there are large areas, especially in developing countries, where few impacts studies have been completed), (b) an almost complete lack of information on impacts under different development pathways and under different amounts of mitigation and (c) little analysis of the capacity and costs of adaptation that might avoid such effects. This was concluded by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment (IPCC, 2001a-d) Where studies have been conducted they often assume different scenarios of climate change, different economic and social projections, and different current baselines. This has often led to inconsistency in the use of climate and emissions scenarios, which has in turn resulted in difficulties in comparing and integrating the results to build a regional or global picture of impacts and adaptation options. These were the reasons that led to the IPCC establishing a Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment (TGCIA) in 1998. Its purpose is to facilitate the provision of scenarios (both climate and socio-economic) for impacts and adaptation research, and to provide guidance on the use of these. The purpose of this note is to inform impacts and adaptation researchers about what data on scenarios are now available and to encourage use of them. 1. Data and guidance now available

Climate and traffic: prospects for Finland

Abstract: The paper contributes a ‘soft’ way of making scenarios for climate policy that takes into account the diverse views of various interest groups. A two-rounded Delphi method is used to produce scenarios for a transport CO 2 policy for Finland. Quantitative statements of the interest groups are run with cluster analysis and qualitative arguments for the statements are attached to the clusters. The resulting six clusters are interpreted in the light of theoretical strategic scenarios of transport and environment, which take different positions on dematerialisation and immaterialisation. Although one could observe only little dematerialisation and no immaterialisation in the relationships between GDP, road traffic volume and CO 2 emissions from road traffic in Finland from 1970–1996, all of the clusters anticipate dematerialisation and five, immaterialisation during 1997–2025.

Meaningful participation in global climate policy? Comparative analysis of the energy and CO2 efficiency dynamics of key developing countries

Abstract: The comparative analysis covering years 1971–1999 of Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Korea, Mexico and South Africa reveals that there are large differences between the energy systems of the key developing countries. The energy and CO2 intensity effects have decreased remarkably since the late 1970s in China. Also India has performed decreasing energy intensity. There have not been large increases in the intensity effects of energy use in other countries. Changes in intensity effects of CO2 emissions were also quite small. An exception among the key developing countries is Korea, where the intensity effects of both energy use and CO2 emissions have increased remarkably. In addition to the empirical decomposition analysis, the article discusses the role of key developing countries in international climate policy.

Beef feedlots in southwestern Kansas: local change, perceptions, and the global change context

Abstract: Cattle feedlots, some of which have a capacity of tens of thousands of head, have become a major driving force in the local economy and changing landscape of southwestern Kansas. The feedlot industry also is one of the region's most important sources of carbon-equivalent greenhouse gases. Changes to the beef industry are described, and the perceptions and attitudes of feedlot operators regarding climatic change issues and industrial change are analyzed based on a 1998 survey. The results indicate that a majority of feedlot respondents believe ‘global warming’ is mostly an unproven theory, and efforts to mitigate it are unwarranted.

Dependable dynamism: lessons for designing scientific assessment processes in consensus negotiations

Abstract: Negotiations that involve the use and interpretation of scientific information and assessment are often particularly difficult, especially when the scientific input is uncertain or contested. Parties can exploit this uncertainty in order to stall progress, where they might prefer a very different policy outcome. In addition, scientific input often changes as new research is done and disseminated. In order to facilitate decision-making where science is involved, a number of international environmental agreements have established regimes, as well as assessment processes, that are designed to incorporate new information, review decisions, and modify judgmentsFthat is, they are dynamic or adaptable. However, there is little systematic evaluation by policymakers or academic analysts of the type and qualities of such dynamism that might contribute to effective assessment and regulatory processes, or of whether this lesson is truly applicable across very different environmental issues. Examination of the recent protocol on persistent organicpollutants to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), in c to LRTAPs two previous protocols on sulfur emissions, offers a way to compare across different types of issues whether and how ‘‘adaptable’’ assessment processes influence consensus negotiations. The results of this comparison indicate that a type of adaptability likely to facilitate decision-making is ‘‘dependable dynamism’’Fthe quality of assessment and decision-making processes that allows policymakers with ease to put off particular decisions for addressing in the future, with confidence that issues so put off will indeed be addressed later. The ability to modify such conclusions at a later time facilitates decision-making processes by offering a new dimension of compromise on both scientific assessment and policy decisions, and lowering the threshold of credibility necessary for decision-making. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future N2O from US agriculture: projecting effects of changing land use, agricultural technology, and climate on N2O emissions

Abstract: This paper presents results from simulated technology and market relationships governing nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from US agriculture for the purpose of conducting policy-sensitive emissions modeling of this greenhouse gas. We have modified the emissions framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Phase II guidelines developed by the IPCC and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for national emissions inventories, and have linked it to operate with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Agriculture and Land Use (AgLU) model. The paper shows that, in the context of moderate climate change, improvements in fertilizer application efficiency and animal management makes it possible to reduce total agricultural N emissions in 2080 to about 1995 levels, which is about 20% below the projected baseline value.

Integrated global change scenarios: surveying user needs in Finland

Abstract: A questionnaire was sent to almost 600 people representing different target groups in Finland, to investigate their interest in obtaining global change scenarios There was a 30% response rate to the questionnaire, of which 93% indicated that they could or might make use of scenarios Priorities for scenarios differed between researchers and non-researchers The research community required information over a wide spectrum of spatial and temporal resolutions and for time horizons ranging from 10 to 100 years Non-researchers attached most importance to projections at low spatial and temporal resolution extending over time horizons up to 2025 Three of the five scenario types surveyed were regarded as of above-average importance by both researchers and non-researchers: atmospheric composition, acidification and eutrophication, and climate Socio-economic scenarios were also of interest to non-researchers but less so to researchers, while both groups expressed below-average interest in sea level scenarios Overall, the questionnaire provided a valuable initial contact with potential scenario users as well as useful preliminary information about their likely scenario needs

The disaster of arsenic poisoning of groundwater in South Asia—a focus on research needs and UNU's role

Abstract: Overview of the Arsenic Crisis The pollution of groundwater – the primary source of drinking water – by arsenic in West Bengal (India), Nepal and Bangladesh has led to a crisis of unprecedented proportions. Some recent estimates show that more than 35 million people are potentially at risk from drinking arsenic-contaminated water (Smith et al., 2000) – this indeed brings the problem to a catastrophic scale. In comparison, the current estimate of people possibly infected by the HIV virus all over the world is around 34 million (UN AIDS, 2001). The sheer magnitude of this disaster means that we face new and unique challenges and tasks.