Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2003"

The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055

Abstract: The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of the maize crop. Although the results indicate an overall reduction of only 10% in maize production to 2055, equivalent to losses of $2 billion per year, the aggregate results hide enormous variability: areas can be identified where maize yields may change substantially. Climate change urgently needs to be assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targetedin research andd evelopment activities whose object is poverty alleviation. r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico

Abstract: We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.

Security and climate change

Abstract: Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that climate change may trigger violent conflict. The paper explains the ways in which climate change is a security issue. It includes in its discussion issues to do with both mitigation and adaptation of climate change.

Equity, environmental justice and sustainability: incomplete approaches in climate change politics

Abstract: The diversity of the different takes on the ethical concepts of equity and environmental justice in the environmental literature requires that a unifying framework, to properly map their theoretical and conceptual loci in environmental ethics, is defined. Specifically, the concepts of equity and environmental justice have often been conflated into one even though they rest on different philosophical foundations and have different denotations, connotations and implications. The inconsistent use of these constructs is perverse in both scholarly discussions and global environmental policy formulation and detracts from conceptual clarity and their analytical usefulness. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to provide a mapping of the different takes to the moral aspects of global environmental decisions. Attempt is made to clarify the conceptual and philosophical denotations of environmental justice and equity from the point of view of philosophy, law and moral ethics. Our analysis leads to the construing of environmental justice as a broad overarching concept encompassing all justice issues in environmental decision-making, including both procedural and distributive justice, which is what is usually meant by equity. The resulting framework allows us to grasp the competing, conflicting and incomplete approaches to environmental justice as captured in the North–South conceptions of the construct more effectively. It is our hope that our conclusions would be valuable to researchers of global environmental change and politics.

Land use-cover change processes in highly biodiverse areas: the case of Oaxaca, Mexico

Abstract: Land use-cover changes (LUCC) such as deforestation, have resulted as global warming and a reduction of environmental services, with large negative consequences for mankind. Effects based on statistics alone have not been sufficient enough to detect, stop and eventually revert negative LUCC processes that are strongly related to biodiversity loss. It is, therefore, of prime concern to assess and depict cartographically, major LUCC processes simultaneously. Mexico harbors a large pool of biodiversity, mostly restricted to a few locations among which, The State of Oaxaca plays a major role. In this state, nevertheless, drastic negative LUCC processes are taking place. Land cover types, mapped in previous surveys, overlaid on recent Landsat imagery and 300 ground truth sites, were used to detect current LUCC. Rates of conversion of the most important LUCC processes were computed and mapped simultaneously. Oaxaca has lost over half a million hectares of forested areas during the last 20 years. The core results may contribute to the understanding of how LUCC and GIS methods can provide better and more targeted information that may help to improve conservation policies and land use planning strategies.

A comparative assessment of climate vulnerability: agriculture and ranching on both sides of the us-mexico border

Abstract: Social science research on climate vulnerability tends to be limited to case studies in either industrial countries or in less-developed nations. The empirical study presented here takes a comparative approach across this divide by examining rural livelihoods on both sides of the United States–Mexico border. Looking beyond single agricultural systems, crossing borders and listening to rural producers in this semi-arid environment offers a more complete picture of how differences in access to resources, state involvement, class and ethnicity result in drastically different vulnerabilities within a similar biophysical context. We distinguish between coping and buffering in examining adaptation strategies and place an emphasis on the historical context of vulnerability as a dynamic social process with socioeconomic and environmental consequences.

Historical footprints in contemporary land use systems: forest cover changes in savannah woodlands in the Sudano-Sahelian zone

Abstract: The paper analyses land use trajectories in savannah woodlands in the Central-West Region, Burkina Faso and the Upper East Region in northern Ghana by use of satellite images and historical archives. Observed trends differ in terms of spatial location and correlation with population pressure from normally accepted characterizations. Colonial forestry policies are proposed as key determinants of present-day land use patterns. However, these reinforced pre-colonial land use patterns inasmuch as land gazetted as forest reserves were tracts affected by vectors of human and livestock disease. It is suggested that the transformation of wooded agricultural landscapes in the Sudano-Sahelian region is the outcome of historically and culturally embedded interactions between complex social, economic and ecological processes which operate at widely varying scales and which change over time; the implications hereof for modelling of global environmental issues is discussed.

Environmental mega-conferences - From Stockholm to Johannesburg and beyond

Abstract: The United Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), held in Johannesburg in August 2002 was the fourth environmental ‘mega’ conference since the first held in Stockholm in 1972. Its aim was to discuss how much progress has been made since the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 and plan further action for the future. This paper first reviews the history and evolution of the environmental ‘mega conferences’ and outlines six core functions which they seek to perform. These are: setting global agendas; facilitating ‘joined-up thinking’; endorsing common principles; providing global leadership; building institutional capacity; and legitimising global governance through inclusivity. Using this evaluative framework, the outcomes, achievements and disappointments of the Johannesburg summit are discussed, along with an evaluation of the future role of such mega-conferences. The paper concludes that environmental mega-conferences do serve an important function in contemporary environmental governance, even though they are not the panaceas that some had originally hoped they might be. In many ways WSSD was a wasted opportunity for progress—politicians lacked the will for adopt ambitious action plans, which frustrated and disappointed participants in the vibrant civil society summit which accompanied the official meeting. The sustainable development agendas have now been set and consolidated, and the task facing politicians is to implement the agreements. This will be achieved and monitored in different fora to the mega-conferences that had originally opened the debates. The task now is for the UN to incorporate the views of citizen's groups and NGOs, and build on bottom-up activism, at the same time as top-down governmental decision-making.

Making global initiatives local realities: Carbon mitigation projects in Chiapas, Mexico

Abstract: Global,environmental initiatives create macro-level agreements,but the true test is how local communities respond. From 1995 to 2001,we investigated the evolution of Fondo Bioclimatico,a carbon mitigation project,using interviews and document review. Even under tremendous uncertainty the project grew seven-fold. Its social structure shifted from a development emphasis to a brokering relationship,from shared to concentrated power,from social fund to carbon bank. Social selection of systems with fewer tree species and single ecosystems is a concern for biodiversity. The challenge is to remain critical,monitor,and support indigenous communities in their endeavor to implement clean development mechanism projects. r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The changing role of nation states in international environmental assessments—the case of the IPCC

Abstract: In 1988, the incoming head of one of the most prominent scientific assessment bodies, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), explained: “Right now, many countries, especially developing countries, simply do not trust assessments in which their scientists and policymakers have not participated.” Since then, the international community gathered significant experience in designing and organising international assessments that allow for broad participation by representatives of national governments and influence domestic and international policy making. By analysing the case study of the IPCC, the paper focuses on the role of individual nation states played in international assessments and how this role changed over time and why. It is shown that there is a tendency of increasing internationalisation in the field of climate research and climate policy that limits the specific influence of individual nation states. The study of the internal processes of the IPCC reveals a growth of internal dynamics that built up boundaries for the behaviour of individual actors (such as government representatives and scientists). However, over the years the actors involved also learned how to use the IPCC mechanisms more effectively.

Mutual vulnerability, mutual dependence

Abstract: Human society affects environmental change but is also vulnerable to these changes. This relation has generated a number of theories that either focus on how we affect the environment or how the environment affects us. Few theories explicitly focus on the interaction. This paper will establish the range of data required to give an assessment of how likely an ecosystem is to change (which we label environmental sensitivity) and the ability of communities to adapt (social resilience). These findings allow us to generate a new method for assessing the reflexive relation between society and the environment.

The ecological footprint: a non-monetary metric of human consumption applied to North America

Abstract: This paper employs ecological footprint analysis as a potential non-monetary metric of human consumption and ecological productivity in a simulation-modeling framework, applied to North America. The ecological footprint provides an indirect basis for considering the long-term ecological risk and sustainability of human settlements, regions or, in this case, a continent. We examine several scenarios for human consumption, ecological productivity and material efficiency, to explore which variables have influence on the ecological budget of North America over the coming century. Only one scenario, which assumes considerable reductions in human consumption, is likely to yield an ecological surplus. Unlike monetary measures of societal well-being, ecological footprint analysis shows that increased economic activity and consumption creates deficits in terms of the balance of ecological productivity and consumption in a region, and may reduce long-term ecological sustainability. Several advantages and disadvantages of this metric are discussed.

Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments ☆

Abstract: International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO2 If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO2 is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs.

Climate change and nature reserves: Examining the potential impacts, with examples from Great Britain

Abstract: A climate change trend analysis (CCTA) was carried out on selected plant species from 66 nature reserves. The CCTA indicates trend in probability of presence under various climate change scenarios. The results demonstrate the potential of the approach to identify locations that might become less suitable for particular species as the climate warms, and sites where certain species might become more vigorous. The approach also offers the potential to identify (a) locations where changes in plant populations may provide an indicator of climate change (b) whether conservation strategies currently in place will remain feasible as climate changes.

An equity first, risk-based framework for managing global climate change

Abstract: This paper presents an alternative framework to the approach currently embodied in the Kyoto Protocol for managing global climate change post-2012 The framework has two key provisions The first is that each person in the world would be ‘allowed’ an equal amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions This is labeled the equity-first provision The second provision focuses on incorporating risk concepts into the setting of GHG emission reductions It is proposed that the global climate be managed as to avoid three categories of risks: (I) Substantial regional economic, political, and/or biological impacts; (II) Severe global economic, political, and/or biological impacts; and (III) Extinction of humans Acceptable risk thresholds are suggested to be one-in-a-million, one-in-one-hundred-million, and one-in-ten-billion, respectively This equity-first, risk-based framework overcomes many criticisms of the current Kyoto Protocol: it explicitly involves all countries on earth; it avoids several administrative issues that are anticipated to plague a global carbon emissions trading market; and it avoids several contentious issues associated with pegging carbon emission reductions to 1990 levels Because the framework is risk-based and emissions are tied to population and not historic emission levels, the basic framework would not have to be frequently renegotiated, as will be needed for the Kyoto-style approach to take the world past that agreement's 2012 endpoint

Representing global climate change, adaptation and mitigation

Abstract: The diagrammatic representation of climate change, adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem, identifying important feedbacks, and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, 2001, uses a “cause and effect” approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This viewpoint reviews this approach and suggests an alternative, based on stocks and flows. The alternative gives a much richer representation of the problem so that it includes the enhanced greenhouse effect, ancillary benefits of mitigation, the distinction between climate-change and other stresses on natural systems, and a more refined distinction between adaptation and mitigation.

Biodiversity: Luxury or necessity

Abstract: Because biodiversity is so complex and varied, knowledge in this area is still relatively limited. It can be stated that this complexity, combined with structural uncertainty, may well lead to an unpredictable future and further loss of biodiversity which will be characterised by non-linearity, thresholds and irreversibility

Two measures of progress in adapting to climate change

Abstract: Adaptation will play a key role in determining the economic and social costs of climate change. One important measure of adaptation is reductions in deaths caused by climate events. This paper uses two new data sets to test the hypothesis that, in recent years, climate events cause less deaths than in the past. Using data on deaths caused by natural disasters and data on skin cancer death rates in warmer and cooler US states, this paper reports evidence in favor of the adaptation progress hypothesis.

Framing environmental change in Africa: cross-scale institutional constraints on progressing from rhetoric to action against vulnerability

Abstract: The reconciliation of national development plans with global priority to mitigate environmental change remains an intractable policy controversy. In Africa, its resolution requires integrating local knowledge into impact assessments without compromising the scientific integrity of the assessment process. This requires better understanding of the communication pathways involved in progressing from frame construction to political action on various environmental issues. The impacts of environmental factors on human health are a common concern in Africa, and it is examined here as a platform for negotiating controversies surrounding the arrogation of global support for local assessments of vulnerability and mitigation. The study focused on the particularities of projected impacts of climate change, and specifically on considerations of the health sector within the context of multivalent international agreements to conduct and use environmental assessments. The analysis addresses limitations of cross-scale communication nodes that are embedded in boundary institutions such as the Country Study Program which is hosted by industrialized nations. The translation of rhetoric into action frames through dynamic vulnerability assessments and critical frame reflection can equally engage indigenous and aided capacity for adapting to environmental change.

Risk and return of project-based climate change mitigation: a portfolio approach

Abstract: We present a framework for evaluating the risks of investments in climate change mitigation projects to generate emission credits. Risk factors that influence the quantity of emission credits are identified for six project types. Since not all project types are affected by the same factors, diversification is a viable risk reduction strategy. We propose a methodology for quantifying risk and return of such investments, discuss data requirements, and illustrate it using a sample of voluntary projects. In our sample, the returns of an optimally diversified low-risk portfolio are up to 10 times higher than those of single projects, holding risk exposure constant.

Institutions for global environmental change

Abstract: This new column will become a regular feature in Global Environmental Change. The aim is to track the formation and progress of various institutional arrangements that have emerged following the UN Conference on Environment and Development at Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and to assess their significance in the management of global environmental change. The column will consist of a mix of four themes: (a) organizational arrangements put in place since the Rio meeting designed to promote a particular cause, such as North-South resource transfers, or scientific assessments or the conduct of conventions. Early topics will include the Global Environment Facility (actually established before Rio but rejuvenated as a consequence), the Conference of the Parties of the two main Conventions (Climate Change and Biodiversity), the Commission on Sustainable Development, and the new procedures put in train in the UN agencies and headquarters; (b) the work of major international research institutes where research is relevant to the analysis of institutional change; (c) assessment of the state of the art in evaluating institutional performance and effectiveness in the post-Rio era, together with summaries of research in this area; (d) commentary on the theory of international environmental regime formation in the light of the initiatives such as cost-benefit analysis, environmental evaluation and application of the precautionary principle. This is a tall order, but we will do what we can to meet your expectations. The column is designed to be participatory. Readers are welcome to comment on articles, to generate their own copy and to encourage others to do so. In part, the success of this column depends on your cooperation. This is a vast and ambitious topic area so any help will be most warmly welcomed and fully acknowledged.

The importance of expressly examining global warming policy issues through an ethical prism

Abstract: A vast scientific and economic literature on global warming has emerged in the last two decades. Surprisingly, however, there has been little written on the ethical dimensions of human-induced climate change despite the numerous, obvious, and profoundly important ethical questions raised by human activities that are now clearly threatening human health, the environment, and many things humans value greatly. This paper argues that ethical analysis of global warming issues is practically imperative for two reasons. First, unless ethical is made analysis is made of global warming issues, ethically dubious decisions about global warming will be made because many of the most important ethical considerations are hidden in what appear to be ethically neutral scientific and economic arguments about global warming policy options. Secondly, unless issues of ethics, justice and equity are expressly dealt with, urgently needed global solutions to global warming will not likely be adopted by many nations. That is, an ethical focus on global warming matters is the key to achieve a globally acceptable solution and to harness political support for action. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how institutions and nations should go about implementing express examination of the ethical dimensions of global warming questions. The paper argues for express identification of ethical issues often hidden in scientific and economic analyses of global warming policy options.

Do natural science experiments influence public attitudes towards environmental problems

Abstract: We investigated the significance of risk assessment studies in the public discussion on CO 2 emissions. Politicians and representatives from the public where interviewed by using the social-science technique of qualitative in-depth interviews. Three different types of attitudes towards natural science were found among politicians. Depending on which attitude a politician holds, risk assessment studies can have an impact on his/her readiness to support environmental policy measures. Regarding lay people, key factors affecting the acceptance of environmental policy measures are knowledge of environmental problems, their impacts on ecosystems or human health as well as direct personal perception of those impacts. Since direct perception is not always possible in everyday life, natural science experiments might be a means for successfully mediating this lacking perception.

Joint Implementation and EU Accession Countries

Abstract: The EU accession countries have a high potential for low cost greenhouse gas emission reduction. As they cannot join the “bubble” agreement for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, project-based Joint Implementation (JI) could be a powerful strategy to integrate them into the EU climate policy strategy. An important question is whether the acquis communautaire will be used to define the baseline for the calculation of emission reductions from JI projects. A problem is that the grace periods for several environmental sectors differ considerably among countries. The EU should help accession countries to establish a predictable legal framework for JI preventing in this way the current legal uncertainty regarding JI procedures.

A pro-active stratospheric ozone protection scenario

Abstract: We explore the consequences of an earlier phase-out of Ozone Depleting Substances, starting ten years before the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric chemistry simulations verify the effectiveness of such an early-action scenario: stratospheric chlorine abundance remains below the level at which the ozone hole was discovered, even though countries are permanently allowed to continue using ODS to a non-negligible extent. A sectorally detailed technico-economic analysis finds that the additional cost of the earlier action scenario would have been moderate. We conclude that the Montreal Protocol was only partially successful at precaution: global atmospheric environmental problems could be regulated before surprising non-linearities occur.

Climate protection and newly industrialized countries: dilemmas and opportunities in Taiwan

Abstract: Global climate policy currently is making efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized countries through implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Yet, the development of greenhouse gas emissions in newly industrialized and developing countries is deeply influencing the perspectives of stabilizing the global climate system. This study takes a closer look at the challenges facing Taiwan as an illustrative example to analyze the trends of greenhouse gas emissions, to assess current strategies and their controversies, and to explore strategies for mobilizing national climate policies. Analyzing the aspects of emission caps, carbon taxes, and clean development mechanisms may shed light on the necessity of involving newly industrialized countries and joint reduction into global climate protection schemes. Hopefully, this analysis may provide inspiring insights about the international climate regime and to other newly industrialized and developing countries which can then adopt effective policies for stabilizing the global climate system.