Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2011"

Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy

Abstract: In the past several decades, decision makers in the United States have increasingly called upon publicly funded science to provide “usable” information for policy making, whether in the case of acid rain, famine prevention or climate change policy. As demands for usability become more prevalent for publicly accountable scientific programs, there is a need to better understand opportunities and constraints to science use in order to inform policy design and implementation. Motivated by recent critique of the decision support function of the US Global Change Research Program, this paper seeks to address this issue by specifically examining the production and use of climate science. It reviews empirical evidence from the rich scholarship focused on climate science use, particularly seasonal climate forecasts, to identify factors that constrain or foster usability. It finds, first, that climate science usability is a function both of the context of potential use and of the process of scientific knowledge production itself. Second, nearly every case of successful use of climate knowledge involved some kind of iteration between knowledge producers and users. The paper argues that, rather than an automatic outcome of the call for the production of usable science, iterativity is the result of the action of specific actors and organizations who ‘own’ the task of building the conditions and mechanisms fostering its creation. Several different types of institutional arrangements can accomplish this task, depending on the needs and resources available. While not all of the factors that enhance usability of science for decision making are within the realm of the scientific enterprise itself, many do offer opportunities for improvement. Science policy mechanisms such as the level of flexibility afforded to research projects and the metrics used to evaluate the outcomes of research investment can be critical to providing the necessary foundation for iterativity and production of usable science to occur.

Adaptive capacity and its assessment

Abstract: This paper reviews the concept of adaptive capacity and various approaches to assessing it, particularly with respect to climate variability and change. I find that adaptive capacity is a relatively under-researched topic within the sustainability science and global change communities, particularly since it is uniquely positioned to improve linkages between vulnerability and resilience research. I identify opportunities for advancing the measurement and characterization of adaptive capacity by combining insights from both vulnerability and resilience frameworks, and I suggest several assessment approaches for possible future development that draw from both frameworks and focus on analyzing the governance, institutions, and management that have helped foster adaptive capacity in light of recent climatic events.

“Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: Towards a clarification of the science–policy interface

Abstract: The issue of “measuring” climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity by means of indicators divides policy and academic communities. While policy increasingly demands such indicators an increasing body of literature criticises them. This misfit results from a twofold confusion. First, there is confusion about what vulnerability indicators are and which arguments are available for building them. Second, there is confusion about the kinds of policy problems to be solved by means of indicators. This paper addresses both sources of confusion. It first develops a rigorous conceptual framework for vulnerability indicators and applies it to review the scientific arguments available for building climate change vulnerability indicators. Then, it opposes this availability with the following six diverse types of problems that vulnerability indicators are meant to address according to the literature: (i) identification of mitigation targets; (ii) identification of vulnerable people, communities, regions, etc.; (iii) raising awareness; (iv) allocation of adaptation funds; (v) monitoring of adaptation policy; and (vi) conducting scientific research. It is found that vulnerability indicators are only appropriate for addressing the second type of problem but only at local scales, when systems can be narrowly defined and inductive arguments can be built. For the other five types of problems, either vulnerability is not the adequate concept or vulnerability indicators are not the adequate methodology. I conclude that both the policy and academic communities should collaboratively attempt to use a more specific terminology for speaking about the problems addressed and the methodologies applied. The one-size-fits-all vulnerability label is not sufficient. Speaking of “measuring” vulnerability is particularly misleading, as this is impossible and raises false expectations.

Cool dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States

Abstract: A B S T R A C T We examine whether conservative white males are more likely than are other adults in the U.S. general public to endorse climate change denial. We draw theoretical and analytical guidance from the identityprotective cognition thesis explaining the white male effect and from recent political psychology scholarship documenting the heightened system-justification tendencies of political conservatives. We utilize public opinion data from ten Gallup surveys from 2001 to 2010, focusing specifically on five indicators of climate change denial. We find that conservative white males are significantly more likely than are other Americans to endorse denialist views on all five items, and that these differences are even greater for those conservative white males who self-report understanding global warming very well. Furthermore, the results of our multivariate logistic regression models reveal that the conservative white male effect remains significant when controlling for the direct effects of political ideology, race, and gender as well as the effects of nine control variables. We thus conclude that the unique views of conservative white males contribute significantly to the high level of climate change denial in the United States.

The effect of environmental change on human migration

Abstract: The influence of the environment and environmental change is largely unrepresented in standard theories of migration, whilst recent debates on climate change and migration focus almost entirely on displacement and perceive migration to be a problem. Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration through mechanisms characterised as the availability and reliability of ecosystem services and exposure to hazard. Individual migration decisions and flows are affected by these drivers operating in combination, and the effect of the environment is therefore highly dependent on economic, political, social and demographic context. Environmental change has the potential to affect directly the hazardousness of place. Environmental change also affects migration indirectly, in particular through economic drivers, by changing livelihoods for example, and political drivers, through affecting conflicts over resources, for example. The proposed framework, applicable to both international and internal migration, emphasises the role of human agency in migration decisions, in particular the linked role of family and household characteristics on the one hand, and barriers and facilitators to movement on the other in translating drivers into actions. The framework can be used to guide new research, assist with the evaluation of policy options, and provide a context for the development of scenarios representing a range of plausible migration futures.

Are we adapting to climate change

Abstract: Human systems will have to adapt to climate change. Understanding of the magnitude of the adaptation challenge at a global scale, however, is incomplete, constrained by a limited understanding of if and how adaptation is taking place. Here we develop and apply a methodology to track and characterize adaptation action; we apply these methods to the peer-reviewed, English-language literature. Our results challenge a number of common assumptions about adaptation while supporting others: (1) Considerable research on adaptation has been conducted yet the majority of studies report on vulnerability assessments and natural systems (or intentions to act), not adaptation actions. (2) Climate change is rarely the sole or primary motivator for adaptation action. (3) Extreme events are important adaptation stimuli across regions. (4) Proactive adaptation is the most commonly reported adaptive response, particularly in developed nations. (5) Adaptation action is more frequently reported in developed nations, with middle income countries underrepresented and low-income regions dominated by reports from a small number of countries. (6) There is limited reporting on adaptations being developed to take advantage of climate change or focusing on women, elderly, or children.

Scepticism and uncertainty about climate change: Dimensions, determinants and change over time

Abstract: While scientific consensus and political and media messages appear to be increasingly certain, public attitudes and action towards the issue do not appear to be following suit. Popular and academic debate often assumes this is due to ignorance or misunderstanding on the part of the public, but some studies have suggested political beliefs and values may play a more important role in determining belief versus scepticism about climate change. The current research used two representative postal surveys of the UK public to: measure scepticism and uncertainty about climate change; determine how scepticism varies according to individual characteristics, knowledge and values; and examine how scepticism has changed over time. Findings show denial of climate change is less common than the perception that the issue has been exaggerated. Scepticism was found to be strongly determined by individuals’ environmental and political values (and indirectly by age, gender, location and lifestyle) rather than by education or knowledge. Between 2003 and 2008, public uncertainty about climate change has remained remarkably constant, although belief that claims about the issue are exaggerated has doubled over that period. These results are interpreted with reference to psychological concepts of motivated reasoning, confirmation bias and ‘finite pool of worry’. Implications for communication and policy are discussed.

Co-management and the co-production of knowledge: Learning to adapt in Canada's Arctic

Abstract: Co-management institutional arrangements have an important role in creating conditions for social learning and adaptation in a rapidly changing Arctic environment, although how that works in practice has not been clearly articulated. This paper draws on three co-management cases from the Canadian Arctic to examine the role of knowledge co-production as an institutional trigger or mechanism to enable learning and adapting. Experience with knowledge co-production across the three cases is variable but outcomes illustrate how co-management actors are learning to learn through uncertainty and environmental change, or learning to be adaptive. Policy implications of this analysis are highlighted and include the importance of a long-term commitment to institution building, an enabling policy environment to sustain difficult social processes associated with knowledge co-production, and the value of diverse modes of communication, deliberation and social interaction.

Virtue and vulnerability: Discourses on women, gender and climate change

Abstract: In the limited literature on gender and climate change, two themes predominate – women as vulnerable or virtuous in relation to the environment. Two viewpoints become obvious: women in the South will be affected more by climate change than men in those countries and that men in the North pollute more than women. The debates are structured in specific ways in the North and the South and the discussion in the article focuses largely on examples from Sweden and India. The article traces the lineage of the arguments to the women, environment and development discussions, examining how they recur in new forms in climate debates. Questioning assumptions about women's vulnerability and virtuousness, it highlights how a focus on women's vulnerability or virtuousness can deflect attention from inequalities in decision-making. By reiterating statements about poor women in the South and the pro-environmental women of the North, these assumptions reinforce North–South biases. Generalizations about women's vulnerability and virtuousness can lead to an increase in women's responsibility without corresponding rewards. There is need to contextualise debates on climate change to enable action and to respond effectively to its adverse effects in particular places.

Uncertain climate: An investigation into public scepticism about anthropogenic climate change

Abstract: This study presents a detailed investigation of public scepticism about climate change in Britain using the trend, attribution, and impact scepticism framework of Rahmstorf (2004). The study found that climate scepticism is currently not widespread in Britain. Although uncertainty and scepticism about the potential impacts of climate change were fairly common, both trend and attribution scepticism were far less prevalent. It further showed that the different types of scepticism are strongly interrelated. Although this may suggest that the general public does not clearly distinguish between the different aspects of the climate debate, there is a clear gradation in prevalence along the Rahmstorf typology. Climate scepticism appeared particularly common among older individuals from lower socio-economic backgrounds who are politically conservative and hold traditional values; while it is less common among younger individuals from higher socio-economic backgrounds who hold self-transcendence and environmental values. The finding that climate scepticism is rooted in people's core values and worldviews may imply a coherent and encompassing sceptical outlook on climate change. However, attitudinal certainty appeared mainly concentrated in non-sceptical groups, suggesting that climate sceptical views are not held very firmly. Implications of the findings for climate change communication and engagement are discussed.

Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia

Abstract: Africa is widely held to be highly vulnerable to future climate change and Ethiopia is often cited as one of the most extreme examples. With this in mind we seek to identify entry points to integrate short- to medium-term climate risk reduction within development activities in Africa, drawing from experiences in Ethiopia. To achieve this we employ a range of data and methods. We examine the changing nature of climate risks using analysis of recent climate variability, future climate scenarios and their secondary impacts. We assess the effects of climate variability on agricultural production and national GDP. Entry points and knowledge gaps in relation to mainstreaming climate risks in Ethiopia are identified using the Government's plan for poverty reduction. We end with a case study incorporating climate risks through drought insurance within the current social protection programme in Ethiopia, which provides support to 8.3 million people. Rainfall behaviour in Ethiopia shows no marked emergent changes and future climate projections show continued warming but very mixed patterns of rainfall change. Economic analysis highlights sensitivities within the economy to large-scale drought, however, while the effects are clear in major drought years in other years the relationship is weak. For social protection fairly small positive and negative effects on the number of recipients and frequency of cash payments during drought occur under the extreme range of climate model rainfall projections (2020s). Our analysis highlights several important challenges and opportunities for addressing climate risks. Challenges primarily relate to the large uncertainties in climate projections for parts of Africa, a weak evidence base of complex, often non-deterministic, climate–society interactions and institutional issues. Opportunities relate to the potential for low-regrets measures to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability which can be integrated with relatively modest effort within a shift in Africa from a disaster-focused view of climate to a long-term perspective that emphasises livelihood security and vulnerability reduction.

The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?

Abstract: In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty. Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from -50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near -11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, -18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, -13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near -15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation. The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theories of practices: Agency, technology, and culture. Exploring the relevance of practice theories for the governance of sustainable consumption practices in the new world-order

Abstract: Within the environmental social sciences, theories of practices are used by an increasing number of authors to analyze the greening of consumption in the new, global order of reflexive modernity. The use of practices as key methodological units for research and governance is suggested as a way to avoid the pitfalls of the individualist and systemic paradigms that dominated the field of sustainable consumption studies for some decades. With the help of practice theory, environmental governance can be renewed in three particular ways: First, the role and responsibilities (not) to be assigned to individual citizen-consumers in environmental change can be specified. Secondly, objects, technologies and infrastructures can be recognized for their crucial contribution to climate governance without lapsing into technological determinism. Third, the cultural framing of sustainability can be enriched by looking into the forms of excitement generated in shared practices of sustainable consumption. We conclude by discussing the need to investigate the globalization of practices from a post-national perspective in both science and policy.

Public engagement with carbon and climate change: To what extent is the public ‘carbon capable’?

Abstract: The relevance of climate change for society seems indisputable: scientific evidence points to a significant human contribution in causing climate change, and impacts which will increasingly affect human welfare. In order to meet national and international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement inmitigation. Yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower. Proposals for mitigative ‘personal carbon budgets’ imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions. However, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. This paper builds on the concept of ‘carbon capability’, a term which captures the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals’ abilities and motivations to reduce emissions. We present empirical findings from a UK survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. These findings highlight the diverse public understandings about ‘carbon’, encompassing technical, social, and moral discourses; and provide further evidence for the environmental value-action gap in relation to adoption of low-carbon lifestyles. Implications of these findings for promoting public engagement with climate change and carbon capability are discussed.

Exploring social barriers to adaptation: Insights from Western Nepal

Abstract: As the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change become increasingly apparent, the need for facilitating successful adaptation and enhancing adaptive capacity within the context of sustainable development is clear. With adaptation high on the agenda, the notion of limits and barriers to adaptation has recently received much attention within both academic and policymaking spheres. While emerging literature has been quick to depict limits and barriers in terms of natural, financial, or technologic processes, there is a clear shortfall in acknowledging social barriers to adaptation. It is against such a backdrop that this paper sets out to expose and explore some of the underlying features of social barriers to adaptation, drawing on insights from two case studies in the Western Nepal. This paper exposes the significant role of cognitive, normative and institutional factors in both influencing and prescribing adaptation. It explores how restrictive social environments can limit adaptation actions and influence adaptive capacity at the local level, particularly for the marginalised and socially excluded. The findings suggest a need for greater recognition of the diversity and complexity of social barriers, strategic planning and incorporation at national and local levels, as well as an emphasis on tackling the underlying drivers of vulnerability and social exclusion.

Towards the real green revolution? Exploring the conceptual dimensions of a new ecological modernisation of agriculture that could ‘feed the world'

Abstract: The challenge to produce enough food is more urgent than ever. We argue that the dominant food regime has responded to this challenge by a ‘narrow’ ecological modernisation process within agriculture which may decrease environmental effects to a certain extent, but also causes new negative side-effects and exposes some important missing links. In this paper we explore what might be a ‘real’ ecological modernisation process, including social, cultural, spatial and political aspects. The central question concerns: is there evidence in practice that agro-ecological approaches can contribute to the future demand for food production, especially in developing countries? We illustrate this by describing examples from Africa, Brazil and China, showing a rich variety of such approaches in agricultural practices. Our conclusion is that agro-ecological approaches could significantly contribute to ‘feeding the world’, and thereby contribute to a ‘real green revolution’; but that this requires a more radical move towards a new type of regionally embedded agri-food eco-economy. This is one which includes re-thinking market mechanisms and organisations, an altered institutional context, and is interwoven with active farmers and consumers’ participation. It also requires a re-direction of science investments to take account of translating often isolated cases of good practice into mainstream agri-food movements.

Poverty, sustainability and human wellbeing: A social wellbeing approach to the global fisheries crisis

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which a social wellbeing approach can offer a useful way of addressing the policy challenge of reconciling poverty and environmental objectives for development policy makers. In order to provide detail from engagement with a specific policy challenge it takes as its illustrative example the global fisheries crisis. This crisis portends not only an environmental disaster but also a catastrophe for human development and for the millions of people directly dependent upon fish resources for their livelihoods and food security. The paper presents the argument for framing the policy problem using a social conception of human wellbeing, suggesting that this approach provides insights which have the potential to improve fisheries policy and governance. By broadening the scope of analysis to consider values, aspirations and motivations and by focusing on the wide range of social relationships that are integral to people achieving their wellbeing, it provides a basis for better understanding the competing interests in fisheries which generate conflict and which often undermine existing policy regimes.

The future that may (or may not) come: How framing changes responses to uncertainty in climate change communications

Abstract: Communicating possible effects of climate change inevitably involves uncertainty Because people are generally averse to uncertainty, this activity has the potential to undermine effective action more than stimulate it The present research considered how framing climate change predictions differently might moderate the tendency for uncertainty to undermine individual action Two studies ( N s = 88 and 120) show that higher uncertainty combined with a negative frame (highlighting possible losses) decreased individual intentions to behave environmentally However when higher uncertainty was combined with a positive frame (highlighting the possibility of losses not materializing) this produced stronger intentions to act Study 2 revealed that these effects of uncertainty were mediated through feelings of efficacy These results suggest that uncertainty is not an inevitable barrier to action, provided communicators frame climate change messages in ways that trigger caution in the face of uncertainty

Rethinking urban water management: Experimentation as a way forward?

Abstract: There is widespread acceptance regarding the need to transition towards more sustainable urban water practices. Supporting such a transition requires new governance frameworks that can accommodate complexity and uncertainty, and organisational cultures that embrace experimentation and learning. This empirically focused research paper examines how eleven, alternative local-scale experiments were initiated while operating in an unsympathetic regime. Furthermore, the perceptions of more than 150 urban water practitioners across Australia are presented, regarding the importance of and difficulty in undertaking experimentation in the urban water sector, and the necessary mechanisms for influencing a step change to sustainable urban water management practices. Interviewees revealed perceived limitations in experimenting with new technologies and practices when operating within a hierarchical and market-based governance paradigm. Also, industry conservatism and the dominant risk-based management approach both operate as significant constraints to promoting an experimentation culture, and are closely related to concerns about public health and financial implications. Overall, the research highlights the Australian urban water sector is willing to embrace learning-by-doing; however, a stronger emphasis on promoting an organisational and industry-wide culture of experimentation and learning is required. Policy implications for future water governance are discussed.

Conflicts over industrial tree plantations in the South: Who, how and why?

Abstract: Industrial tree plantations for wood, palm oil and rubber production are among the fastest growing monocultures and are currently being promoted as carbon sinks and energy producers. Such plantations are causing a large number of conflicts between companies and local populations, mostly in the tropics and subtropics. Within a political ecology framework, the present paper investigates the nature of such conflicts as related to the alleged impacts of the plantations, the protesters involved, and the modalities of the conflicts with a special emphasis on their outcomes. Relying on the most comprehensive literature review to date, corresponding to 58 conflict cases, I find that the prominent cause of resistance is related to corporate control over land resulting in displacements and the end of local uses of ecosystems as they are replaced by monocultures. Resistance includes the “weapons of the weak” and ranges from dialogue to direct confrontation and from local to international. It often involves NGOs, especially for legal issues. Demonstrations, lawsuits, road blockades and tree uprooting have been reported in several countries. Authorities have responded by repression in about half of the cases analysed, while popular struggles have been able to stop plantations in about one fifth, mainly through winning lawsuits or massive social unrest. While these movements can be regarded as classical land conflicts, they usually also have an ecological content, corresponding to forms of the “environmentalism of the poor”. The documented large number of such conflicts suggests that policies promoting large-scale tree plantations should be reappraised.

Cost-benefit analysis in the context of ecosystem services for human well-being: A multidisciplinary critique

Abstract: This paper provides a critique of the cost-benefit analysis tool for ecosystem services policy evaluation. We argue that when applied to public ecosystem services, the theoretical assumptions that underlie economic valuation and cost-benefit analysis fail to fully acknowledge the multiple dimensions of human well-being, the plural forms of value articulation, the complex nature of ecosystems, the distributional biases of markets and the fairness implications of spatio-temporal framing. The current monistic utilitarian approach to ecosystem services policy evaluation should therefore be replaced by a pluralist framework composed of a heterogeneous set of value-articulating instruments that are appropriate to the specific context within which decision-making takes place. It is argued that within this pluralist framework cost-benefit analysis may remain an appropriate tool to examine the contingent trade-offs of local policies that have limited impacts on ecosystems and their services.

Why the numbers don’t add up: A review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes

Abstract: Estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes have been highly instrumental in the ever-increasing attention given to environmental migration in the media. Yet no consensual estimate exists, let alone a commonly agreed methodology. As a result, predictions and estimates have become one of the most contentious issues in the debates on environmental migration. This article seeks to review the key estimates and predictions existing in the literature, as well as the methodologies they are built on, and the problems and caveats they are fraught with. The first part reviews the figures related to current estimates of people displaced by environmental changes, while a second part examines the predictions for future displacements. The next section synthesises the key methodological difficulties and a final section suggests some possible avenues for improvement.

Mental preparation for climate adaptation: The role of cognition and culture in enhancing adaptive capacity of water management in Kiribati

Abstract: In many Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as in Kiribati, formal national adaptation programmes are currently being operationalised or are in the pipeline. A key focus is on motivating householders to adapt in anticipation of climate change through pilot community projects. In this paper, we argue that the water sector must pay equal attention to how communities cognitively perceive the process of adaptation if interventions are to be effective. Adopting a cognitive model to gain such insights we conclude that individual's belief in their own abilities to manage water stress play a crucial role in driving intentions to adapt and therefore greater attention needs to be placed on understanding the underling drivers shaping such beliefs.

Adaptation to climate change in Uganda: Evidence from micro level data

Abstract: This study employed data from the 2005/06 Uganda national household survey to identify adaptation strategies and factors governing their choice in Uganda's agricultural production. Factors that mediate or hinder adaptation across different shocks and strategies include age of the household head, access to credit and extension facilities and security of land tenure. There are also differences in choice of adaptation strategies by agro-climatic zone. The appropriate policy level responses should complement the autonomous adaptation strategies by facilitating technology adoption and availing information to farmers not only with regard to climate related forecasts but available weather and pest resistant varieties.

Vulnerability and resilience of remote rural communities to shocks and global changes: Empirical analysis from Solomon Islands

Abstract: Successful management of socio-ecological systems not only requires the development and field-testing of robust and measurable indices of vulnerability and resilience but also improved understanding of the contextual factors that influence societal capacity to adapt to change. We present the results of an analysis conducted in three coastal communities in Solomon Islands. An integrated assessment map was used to systematically scan the communities’ multiple dimensions of vulnerability and to identify factors affecting households’ perception about their capacity to cope with shocks (resilience). A multivariate probit approach was used to explore relationships amongst factors. Social processes such as community cohesion, good leadership, and individual support to collective action were critical factors influencing the perception that people had about their community's ability to build resilience and cope with change. The analysis also suggests a growing concern for a combination of local (internal) and more global (external) contingencies and shocks, such as the erosion of social values and fear of climate change.

The importance of deliberation in valuing ecosystem services in developing countries - evidence from the Solomon Islands

Abstract: Monetary valuation of ecosystem services enables more accurate accounting of the environmental costs and benefits of policies, but this has rarely been applied in developing countries. In such contexts, there are particular methodological and epistemological challenges that require novel valuation methodologies. This paper introduces a new participatory, deliberative choice experiment approach conducted in the Solomon Islands. The research aimed to determine the value people placed on ecosystem services and whether participatory interventions to elicit deeper held values influenced the preferences expressed. Results found that the initial willingness to pay for a number of tropical forest ecosystem services amounted to 30% of household income. Following deliberative intervention exercises, key ecosystem services effectively became priceless as participants were unwilling to trade them off in the choice experiment scenarios, regardless of financial cost. The group based deliberative approach, combined with participatory interventions, also resulted in significant learning for participants. This included a more sophisticated view of ecological-cultural linkages, greater recognition of deeper held values, and greater awareness of the consequences of human actions for the environment. The use of a group-based participatory approach instead of a conventional individual survey helped to overcome many of the practical difficulties associated with valuation in developing countries. Given the impact of learning on valuation outcomes, participation and deliberation should be integrated into valuation of any complex good, both in developing and developed economies. However, such a methodology raises questions about how valuation can deal with unwillingness to trade-off key ecosystem services, which results in the breakdown of monetary valuation methods. Evaluation of the appropriateness of valuation processes and methodologies for assessing deeper held values and use of mixed-method approaches will be essential to ensure policies take into account the extent to which human life is dependent on ecosystem services.

Message framing influences perceived climate change competence, engagement, and behavioral intentions

Abstract: The effect of motivational versus sacrifice message framing on perceived climate change competence, engagement, and 15 mitigative behavioral intentions was examined in a large Canadian community sample (n = 1038). Perceived competence, engagement, and several behavioral intentions were significantly greater after exposure to motivational framing than after sacrifice framing. Gender, age, income, and educational level moderated some results, and moral engagement and agentic language also played a role. The results support the use of motivational frames rather than sacrifice frames to increase the climate-related engagement and activation of community members.

Vulnerability before adaptation: Toward transformative climate action

Abstract: Scholars have long talked of climate-related risk in terms of vulnerability (Sen, 1981; Downing, 1991; Watts and Bohle, 1993). The discourse has recently shifted from vulnerability to adaptation (Schipper, 2006; Orlove, 2009). In 2001 IPCC defined adaptation to climate change as ‘‘. . .adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities’’ (IPCC, 2001:365; and in IPCC, 2007:869). Adaptation has become a core element of international climate action (Dovers, 2009). The term is now widely used to describe efforts to enable people to cope, reduce their vulnerability and improve their livelihoods in the face of climate stress (Orlove, 2009; Lemos et al., 2007; Agrawal, 2009). Adaptation efforts are noble, necessary and long overdue, but there are grave risks in calling these efforts ‘adaptation’ rather than ‘vulnerability reduction’. Orlove (2009:160–161) shows that, in practice, adaptation analysis tends to train attention on hazards rather than the broader set of stressors people face; it focuses, via cost-benefit analysis, on easily measured variables such as economic well being rather than less-quantifiable cultural and religious values, long time horizons, or attachment to place; and by attending to adjustment, ‘‘it tends to exclude the possibility of non-adaptation from consideration.’’ Other risks, developed below, reside in the concept of adaptation; they include obscuring of causality, naturalizing of the problem and responses, and social Darwinism. The formerly dominant term vulnerability, of course, also has its shortcomings. It can be criticized for a vexing ‘negative’ focus on problems, rather than solutions, and for painting affected people as passive victims (Cannon et al., 2003) – which, by the way, sometimes they are (sometime passive, sometimes active, but often victims). Words matter. The term vulnerability leads us to ask ‘‘why are people vulnerable or at risk.’’ (Of course ‘why’ is about causes, leading to questions of ‘who’ is responsible; oh, lets not go there.) When we talk of adaptation, the first thought is ‘‘how do people adapt.’’ An adaptation framing does not automatically draw us to ask ‘‘why do people have to adapt in the first place.’’ Adaptation takes attention away from causality by shifting the focus from cause to response. Further, defining ‘‘adaptation to climate change’’ (IPCC, 2001, 2007) or talk of ‘‘response to . . .climate. . .’’ (World Meteorological Organization 1986 in Orlove, 2009:133) places risk within the hazard – within climate rather than society. Hence, adaptation thinking can occlude causality in two ways. First, by prioritizing response it diminishes attention to the generation of risk. Second, by placing risk in the hazard, it draws attention away from underlying social causes of vulnerability – exploitation, exclusion, marginalization, socially stratified societies in which the poor have no access to representation, education, healthcare and basic social security. But, since we need a clear understanding of causality if responses are to be robust (or if we are to attribute responsibility), obscuring cause promotes superficial palliative responses while avoiding just redress. These arguments are not mere semantics; language matters deeply for analysis, interpretation and action (see O’Brien et al., 2007). The term adaptation has another troubling connotation – despite debates on autonomous (unplanned, spontaneous, inherent, or reactive) versus planned (proactive) adaptation (Hart and Morrison, 1993). It evokes a social-Darwinist ethic when applied to people, implying those who do not survive (who do not adapt) were not fit. It burdens and blames the victim by devolving the onus of adjustment to the organism or effected unit. Rather than just helping people who have been pushed to the brink of crisis or stopping the social and political-economic processes that are marginalizing them, the term adaptation (not all of its users) suggests that people should adjust and help themselves, or, at best, that society help them to help themselves. The effected unit must adjust – with or without help. Of course helping people to help themselves is good, but not if we forget they are adjusting to circumstances that are not of their making. Such a framing takes attention away from the social and political-economic production of marginality and associated risk – where public attention and funding should be prioritized. Regardless of whether people are at risk due to their own foibles or to social exclusions, societies are responsible for those who cannot take care of themselves – that is what makes a society. As Hubert Humphrey is alleged to have said, ‘‘A society is ultimately judged by how it treats its weakest and most vulnerable members,’’ and as John F Kennedy quipped ‘‘If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.’’ Social responsibility is a moral imperative – it is also not bad for the self-interested powerful. Further, by implying evolutionary and natural, rather than social, processes of change, adaptation has no implicit link to social causes or responsibility for the vulnerabilities that shape people’s suffering – since we know that nature is not to blame for anything. As Arendt (1960:460) points Global Environmental Change 21 (2011) 1160–1162

Social identity, perception and motivation in adaptation to climate risk in the coffee sector of Chiapas, Mexico

Abstract: Most investigation into climate adaptation to date has focused on specific technological interventions and socio-economic aspects of adaptive capacity. New perspectives posit that socio-cognitive factors may be as or more important in motivating individuals to take adaptive actions. Recent research indicates that incorporating insights from motivation theory can enhance theorization of adaptive capacity. Yet unexplored, and what we propose here, is the addition of social identity to models of adaptive capacity and adaptation. To apply this conceptual framework, the first author undertook in-depth interviews with a sample of farmers who had participated in broader surveys the previous year to explore their perceptions of their social identity, climate-related information and its sources, and climate risk. These interviews elicited compelling evidence that social identity mediates between risk perception and adaptation through its influence on motivation. Interviews revealed significant links between social identity and perception of information, risk perception and adaptation, of which the most salient were the relative credibility and legitimacy of information sources (related to us vs. them social group differentiation); the role of coffee organizations; and ethnicity and geographic marginalization. Strong in-group identity and perceptions of potentially influential out-groups such as the scientific community appear to particularly influence perception and use of information. These findings have rich policy implications for adaptation management and merit further investigation to identify how, where and why social identity plays a role in climate-risk perception, motivation and adaptation in other geographic areas of vulnerability worldwide.

Forest tenure reform in the age of climate change: Lessons for REDD+

Abstract: Numerous authors have stressed the importance of guaranteeing and protecting the tenure and human rights of indigenous and other forest-based communities under schemes for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD, or REDD+); and important international indigenous organizations have spoken out strongly against REDD+. This article examines two specific issues that present risks for local communities: rights to forests and rules for resource use. It draws on the findings of a study conducted by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) on forest tenure reforms in selected countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America from 2006 to 2008. The study underlines the numerous obstacles faced by communities after rights are won, in moving from statutory rights to their implementation and to access to benefits on the ground. It argues that there is currently little reason to expect better results from national policies under REDD+ without binding agreements to protect local rights.