Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2012"

Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Abstract: Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.

Water security: Debating an emerging paradigm

Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the concept of water security, including both academic and policy literatures. The analysis indicates that the use of the term water security has increased significantly in the past decade, across multiple disciplines. The paper presents a comparison of definitions of, and analytical approaches to, water security across the natural and social sciences, which indicates that distinct, and at times incommensurable, methods and scales of analysis are being used. We consider the advantages and disadvantages of narrow versus broad and integrative framings of water security, and explore their utility with reference to integrated water resources management. In conclusion, we argue that an integrative approach to water security brings issues of good governance to the fore, and thus holds promise as a new approach to water management.

Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables?

Abstract: A better understanding of processes that shape farmers’ adaptation to climate change is critical to identify vulnerable entities and to develop well-targeted adaptation policies. However, it is currently poorly understood what determines farmers’ adaptation and how to measure it. In this study, we develop an activity-based adaptation index (AAI) and explore the relationship between socioeconomic variables and farmers’ adaptation behavior by means of an explanatory factor analysis and a multiple linear regression model using latent variables. The model was tested in six villages situated in two administrative wards in the Morogoro region of Tanzania. The Mlali ward represents a system of relatively high agricultural potential, whereas the Gairo ward represents a system of low agricultural potential. A household survey, a rapid rural appraisal and, a stakeholder workshop were used for data collection. The data were analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. We found that public investment in rural infrastructure, in the availability and technically efficient use of inputs, in a good education system that provides equal chances for women, and in the strengthening of social capital, agricultural extension and, microcredit services are the best means of improving the adaptation of the farmers from the six villages in Gairo and Mlali. We conclude that the newly developed AAI is a simple but promising way to capture the complexity of adaptation processes that addresses a number of shortcomings of previous index studies.

Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation

Abstract: Transformative actions are increasingly being required to address changes in climate. As an aid to understanding and supporting informed decision-making regarding transformative change, we draw on theories from both the resilience and vulnerability literature to produce the Adaptation Action Cycles concept and applied framework. The resulting Adaptation Action Cycles provides a novel conceptualisation of incremental and transformative adaptation as a continuous process depicted by two concentric and distinct, yet linked, action learning cycles. Each cycle represents four stages in the decision-making process, which are considered to be undertaken over relatively short timeframes. The concept is translated into an applied framework by adopting a contextual, actor-focused suite of questions at each of the four stages. This approach compliments existing theories of transition and transformation by operationalising assessments at the individual and enterprise level. Empirical validation of the concept was conducted by collaborating with members of the Australian wine industry to assess their decisions and actions taken in response to climate change. The contiguous stages represented in the Adaptation Action Cycles aptly reflected the diverse range of decision-making and action pathways taken in recent years by those interviewed. Results suggest that incremental adaptation decision-making processes have distinct characteristics, compared with those used in transformative adaptation. We provide empirical data to support past propositions suggesting dependent relationships operate between incremental and transformative scales of adaptation.

Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

Abstract: This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.

The first climate refugees? Contesting global narratives of climate change in Tuvalu

Abstract: Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are almost certain. What these outcomes mean for different populations, however, is far less certain. Climate change is both a narrative and material phenomenon. In so being, understanding climate change requires broad conceptualisations that incorporate multiple voices and recognise the agency of vulnerable populations. In climate change discourse, climate mobility is often characterised as the production of ‘refugees’, with a tendency to discount long histories of ordinary mobility among affected populations. The case of Tuvalu in the Pacific juxtaposes migration as everyday practice with climate refugee narratives. This climate-exposed population is being problematically positioned to speak for an entire planet under threat. Tuvaluans are being used as the immediate evidence of displacement that the climate change crisis narrative seems to require. Those identified as imminent climate refugees are being held up like ventriloquists to present a particular (western) ‘crisis of nature’. Yet Tuvaluan conceptions of climate challenges and mobility practices show that more inclusive sets of concepts and tools are needed to equitably and effectively approach and characterise population mobility.

Vulnerability of coastal communities to key impacts of climate change on coral reef fisheries.

Abstract: Coral reefs support the livelihood of millions of people especially those engaged in marine fisheries activities Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to climate change induced stresses that have led to substantial coral mortality over large spatial scales Such climate change impacts have the potential to lead to declines in marine fish production and compromise the livelihoods of fisheries dependent communities Yet few studies have examined social vulnerability in the context of changes specific to coral reef ecosystems In this paper, we examine three dimensions of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) of 29 coastal communities across five western Indian Ocean countries to the impacts of coral bleaching on fishery returns A key contribution is the development of a novel, network-based approach to examining sensitivity to changes in the fishery that incorporates linkages between fishery and non-fishery occupations We find that key sources of vulnerability differ considerably within and between the five countries Our approach allows the visualization of how these dimensions of vulnerability differ from site to site, providing important insights into the types of nuanced policy interventions that may help to reduce vulnerability at a specific location To complement this, we develop framework of policy actions thought to reduce different aspects of vulnerability at varying spatial and temporal scales Although our results are specific to reef fisheries impacts from coral bleaching, this approach provides a framework for other types of threats and different social-ecological systems more broadly

Declining public concern about climate change: Can we blame the great recession? §

Abstract: A B S T R A C T Social surveys suggest that the American public’s concern about climate change has declined dramatically since 2008. This has led to a search for explanations for this decline, and great deal of speculation that there has been a fundamental shift in public trust in climate science. We evaluate over thirty years of public opinion data about global warming and the environment, and suggest that the decline in belief about climate change is most likely driven by the economic insecurity caused by the Great Recession. Evidence from European nations further supports an economic explanation for changing public opinion. The pattern is consistent with more than forty years of public opinion about environmental policy. Popular alternative explanations for declining support – partisan politicization, biased media coverage, fluctuations in short-term weather conditions – are unable to explain the suddenness and timing of opinion trends. The implication of these findings is that the ‘‘crisis of confidence’’ in climate change will likely rebound after labor market conditions improve, but not until then.

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate

Abstract: Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.

Health damages from air pollution in China

Abstract: A B S T R A C T This study evaluates air pollution-related health impacts on the Chinese economy by using an expanded version of the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. We estimated that marginal welfare impact to the Chinese economy of ozone and particulate-matter concentrations above background levels increased from 1997 US$22 billion in 1975 to 1997 US$112 billion in 2005, despite improvements in overall air quality. This increase is a result of the growing urban population and rising wages that thus increased the value of lost labor and leisure. In relative terms, however, welfare losses from air pollution decreased from 14% of the historical welfare level to 5% during the same period because the total size of the economy grew much faster than the absolute air pollution damages. In addition, we estimated that particulate-matter pollution alone led to a gross domestic product loss of 1997 US$64 billion in 1995. Given that the World Bank’s comparable estimate drawn from a static approach was only 1997 US$34 billion, this result suggests that conventional static methods neglecting the cumulative impact of pollution-caused welfare damage are likely to underestimate pollution-health costs substantially. However, our analysis of uncertainty involved in exposure–response functions suggests that our central estimates are susceptible to significantly large error bars of around � 80%.

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

Abstract: Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual " no policy" scenarios would be an important step toward meeting this challenge. To this end, we introduce the concept of " shared socio-economic (reference) pathways" Sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions may be achieved by locating the pathways along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. The pathways should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between integrated assessment modelers and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions: climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the pathways. For some applications, socio-economic pathways may have to be augmented by " shared climate policy assumptions" capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. We conclude that the development of shared socio-economic (reference) pathways, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between integrated assessment and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Securing Indigenous politics: A critique of the vulnerability and adaptation approach to the human dimensions of climate change in the Canadian Arctic

Abstract: Over the past decade research examining the human dimensions of climatic change in the Arctic has expanded significantly and has become the dominant framework through which the relations between northern peoples and climatic change are understood by scholars, policy makers, political leaders, and the media. This paper critically examines the assumptions, exclusions, and orientations that characterize this broad literature, and suggests revising and expanding the terms upon which it is carried out. It focuses in particular on the exclusion of colonialism from the study of human vulnerability and adaptation to climatic change, the framing of Indigenous peoples and communities in terms of the local and the traditional, and the ways in which efforts to improve the lives of northern Indigenous peoples risk perpetuating colonial relations. The paper argues that these exclusions and orientations lead scholars to systematically overlook the immense importance of resource extraction and shipping as human dimensions of climatic change in the Canadian Arctic, and it examines the implications of such oversights.

Resource depletion, peak minerals and the implications for sustainable resource management

Abstract: Today's global society is economically, socially and culturally dependent on minerals and metals. While metals are recyclable, terrestrial mineral deposits are by definition ‘non-renewable’ over human timescales and their stocks are thus finite. This raises the spectre of ‘peak minerals’ – the time at which production from terrestrial ores can no longer rise to meet demand and where a maximum (peak) production occurs. Peak minerals prompts a focus on the way minerals can be sustainably used in the future to ensure the services they provide to global society can be maintained. As peak minerals approaches (and is passed in some cases), understanding and monitoring the dynamics of primary mineral production, recycling and dematerialisation, in the context of national and global discussions about mineral resources demand and the money earned from their sale, will become essential for informing and establishing mechanisms for sustainable mineral governance and use efficiency into the future. Taking a cross-scale approach, this paper explores the economic and productivity impacts of peak minerals, and how changes in the mineral production profile are influenced not only by technological and scarcity factors, but also by environmental and social constraints. Specifically we examine the impacts of peak minerals in Australia, a major global minerals supplier, and the consequences for the Asia-Pacific region, a major destination for Australia's minerals. This research has profound implications for local and regional/global sustainability of mineral and metal use. The focus on services is useful for encouraging discussion of transitions in how such services can be provided in a future more sustainable economy, when mineral availability is constrained. The research also begins to address the question of how we approach the development of strategies to maximise returns from mineral wealth over generations.

The REDD menace: Resurgent protectionism in Tanzania's mangrove forests

Abstract: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) is being proclaimed as “a new direction in forest conservation” ( Anglesen, 2009 : 125) This financial incentives-based climate change mitigation strategy proposed by the UNEP, World Bank, GEF and environmental NGOs seeks to integrate forests into carbon sequestration schemes Its proponents view REDD+ as part of an adaptive strategy to counter the effects of global climate change This paper combines the theoretical approaches of market environmentalism and environmental narratives to examine the politics of environmental knowledge that are redefining socio-nature relations in the Rufiji Delta, Tanzania to make mangrove forests amenable to markets Through a case study of a “REDD-readiness” climate change mitigation and adaptation project, we demonstrate how a shift in resource control and management from local to global actors builds upon narratives of environmental change (forest loss) that have little factual basis in environmental histories We argue that the proponents of REDD+ (Tanzanian state, aid donors, environmental NGOs) underestimate the agency of forest-reliant communities who have played a major role in the making of the delta landscape and who will certainly resist the injustices they are facing as a result of this shift from community-based resource management to fortress conservation

Institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector

Abstract: This paper provides an evidence-based contribution to understanding processes of climate change adaptation in water governance systems in the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. It builds upon the work of Ostrom on institutional design principles for local common pool resources systems. We argue that for dealing with complexities and uncertainties related to climate change impacts (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of floods or droughts) additional or adjusted institutional design propositions are necessary that facilitate learning processes. This is especially the case for dealing with complex, cross-boundary and large-scale resource systems, such as river basins and delta areas in the Netherlands and South Africa or groundwater systems in Western Australia. In this paper we provide empirical support for a set of eight refined and extended institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Together they capture structural, agency and learning dimensions of the adaptation challenge and they provide a strong initial framework to explore key institutional issues in the governance of adaptation to climate change. These institutional design propositions support a “management as learning” approach to dealing with complexity and uncertainty. They do not specify blueprints, but encourage adaptation tuned to the specific features of local geography, ecology, economies and cultures.

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.

Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use

Abstract: Over the last 10 years a large set of global environmental assessment studies has been published that include scenario projections. Comparison of these studies shows that there is actually a limited set of scenario families that form the basis of many scenarios used in different environmental assessments. Mapping these scenario families allow a simpler comparison across the different assessments. The fact that many assessments can be positioned within these families gives some confidence of their relevance. It is also noticeable that several recent assessments have been focusing on more focussed policy-scenarios as variant to a single baseline. This is partly a response to a different stage in the policy-making process. While there are clear advantages of both categories of scenarios (explorative scenarios and baseline/policy variants), it might be important to test the robustness of scenario outcomes of the policy-scenario approach against the different storyline scenario-families identified in this paper.

Accessing adaptation: Multiple stressors on livelihoods in the Bolivian highlands under a changing climate

Abstract: Smallholder farmers continuously confront multiple social and environmental stressors that necessitate changes in livelihood strategies to prevent damages and take advantage of new opportunities, or adaptation. Vulnerability, meaning susceptibility to harm, is attributable to social determinants that limit access to assets, leading to greater exposure and sensitivity to stressors and a limited capacity to adapt. Stressors and adaptation are intertwined because stressors deplete resources available for adaptation, while adaptation may erode resources available to respond to future stressors. We present empirical evidence demonstrating the interactions of multiple stressors and adaptations over time through a case study of indigenous farmers in highland Bolivia. We examine how farmers perceive the stress on their livelihoods, their strategies for adapting to these threats, and the influence of past adaptation and exposure on vulnerability under increasing climatic change. We find that vulnerability changes over time as multiple stressors, such as land scarcity and delayed seasonal rainfall, compound, simultaneously reducing access and demanding the expenditure of household assets for adaptation, including natural capital (water and land), human capital (including labor), and financial, physical, and social capital. To reduce vulnerability over time, constraints on access to key resources must be addressed, allowing households the flexibility to reduce their exposure and improve their adaptive capacity to the multiple stressors they confront.

Materials embodied in international trade – Global material extraction and consumption between 1995 and 2005

Abstract: Production and consumption activities in industrialized countries are increasingly dependent on material and energy resources from other world regions and imply significant economic and environmental consequences in other regions around the world. The substitution of domestic material extraction and processing through imports is also shifting environmental burden abroad and thus extends the responsibility for environmental impacts as well as social consequences from the national to the global level. Based on the results of the Global Resource Accounting Model, this paper presents the first trade balances and consumption indicators for embodied materials in a time series from 1995 to 2005. The model includes 53 countries and two world regions. It is based on the 2009 edition of the input–output tables and bilateral trade data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and is extended by physical data on global material extraction. The results quantify the global shift of embodied material resources from developing and emerging countries to the industrialized world. In addition to the level of industrialization and wealth, population density is identified as an important factor for the formation of physical trade patterns. Exports of embodied materials of less densely populated countries tend to surpass their imports, and vice versa. We also provide a quantitative comparison between conventionally applied indicators on material consumption based on direct material flows and indicators including embodied material flows. We show that the difference between those two indicators can be as much as 200%, calling for an adjustment of conventional national material flow indicators. Multi-regional input–output models prove to be a useful methodological approach to derive globally consistent and comprehensive data on material embodiments of trade and consumption.

Special Issue Introduction: Adding insult to injury: Climate change and the inequities of climate intervention

Abstract: Climate change will injure vulnerable communities. In response, coordinated global action has emerged to mitigate climate change, to gauge and map climate-related risks, and to plan for adaptation, which in turn has opened new avenues of funding, power, knowledge and opportunity. The identification of climate risks, analysis and diffusion of ‘impact’ scenarios, incorporation of carbon into economic regimes, and interventions to enhance adaptive capacity will necessarily be experienced differently by different groups. As climate-related crises produce winners and losers, so may discourses and plans made to avert such crises. In the process both the bio-physical events and the social responses shape and reshape social stratification and the distribution of risk. They produce new inequalities and needs for new kinds of responses to guard against injustice. From the emergence of desalination water projects and contested water access, to relocation planning in the Arctic and the South Pacific due to sea-level rise, to increasingly centralized forest management; mitigation and adaptation responses and interventions create their own critical outcomes. This essay and the articles in this special issue examine some new opportunities and risks associated with climate-change discourses and interventions. This special issue shows that vulnerable communities may be at risk of material injury following climate change or climate change intervention; and, be further insulted and injured by lack of representation and recognition, and by misrecognition as simplified, stereotyped victims in local, national and international climate conversations. Using a mixture of theoretical insight and case study research, this collection of articles explores the injuries of climate change as it applies to both direct physical stress scenarios and exposure to adaptation and mitigation policies and planning, as well as the discursive insults of being discounted, stereotyped, or ignored.

Managing private and public adaptation to climate change

Abstract: Adaptation to climate change is already being delivered by public and private actors, yet there has been little analysis of the relationships between the providers and beneficiaries of adaptation. This paper reviews the type of actors that are supplying adaptation services and their motivations. We then focus on a specific, under-explored case of adaptation: that of privately provided adaptation public goods and services, the realization of which is contingent on the individual management of private goods and private risks. Following the work of Olson (1965) we find that the benefits of the privately provided adaptation public good do not necessarily accrue back to the (same) individuals who are the providers. The characteristics of this particular form of public good pose specific institutional challenges. In this paper we: 1) explore the characteristics and defining features of these privately provided adaptation public goods; 2) argue that this form of adaptation provisioning is increasingly recognised as a feature in climate change adaptation (and/or social transformation) problems; 3) review existing cases of effective/ineffective management of these public goods; and 4) outline the institutions that may be required to facilitate the management of these public goods for adaptation.

Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources

Abstract: Proposed dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin will considerably reduce fish catch and place heightened demands on the resources necessary to replace lost protein and calories. Additional land and water required to replace lost fish protein with livestock products are modelled using land and water footprint methods. Two main scenarios cover projections of these increased demands and enable the specific impact from the main stem dam proposals to be considered in the context of basin-wide hydropower development. Scenario 1 models 11 main stem dams and estimates a 4–7% increase overall in water use for food production, with much higher estimations for countries entirely within the Basin: Cambodia (29–64%) and Laos (12–24%). Land increases run to a 13–27% increase. In scenario 2, covering another 77 dams planned in the Basin by 2030 and reservoir fisheries, projections are much higher: 6–17% for water, and 19–63% for land. These are first estimates of impacts of dam development on fisheries and will be strongly mediated by cultural and economic factors. The results suggest that basic food security is potentially at a high risk of disruption and therefore basin stakeholders should be fully engaged in strategies to offset these impacts.

Traditional ecological knowledge and community resilience to environmental extremes: A case study in Doñana, SW Spain

Abstract: Research in the last decade has emphasised the potential contribution of traditional ecological knowledge to cope with challenges from global environmental change. This research examines the role of traditional ecological knowledge and shared systems of beliefs in building long-term social–ecological resilience to environmental extremes. Data were collected from 13 villages of the Donana region, southwestern Spain, through interviews, focus groups, and systematic reviews of historical archives. First, we assess adaptive practices to cope with environmental change. Then, we use historical records of religious ceremonies (1577–1956) to reconstruct collective responses to environmental extremes. Our results (1) show how environmental extremes could induce social and economic crises through declines in ecosystem services and (2) identify practices to cope with recurrent disturbance and institutional devices developed in response to environmental extremes. We conclude that traditional ecological knowledge and shared systems of beliefs can facilitate collective responses to crises and contribute to the maintenance of long-term resilience of social–ecological systems.

Disentangling intangible social-ecological systems

Abstract: Contemporary environmental challenges call for new research approaches that include the human dimension when studying the natural environment. In spite of the recent development of several conceptual frameworks integrating human society with nature, there has been less methodological and theoretical progress on how to quantitatively study such social–ecological interdependencies. We propose a novel theoretical framework for addressing this gap that partly builds on the rapidly growing interdisciplinary research on complex networks. The framework makes it possible to unpack, define and formalize ways in which societies and nature are interdependent, and to empirically link this to specific governance challenges and opportunities using a range of theories from both the social and natural sciences in an integrated way. At the core of the framework is a set of basic building blocks (motifs) that each represents a simplified but non-trivial social–ecological systems (SES) consisting of two social actors and two ecological resources. The set represents all possible patterns of interdependency in a SES. Each unique motif is characterized in terms of social and ecological connectivity, resource sharing, and resource substitutability. By aligning theoretical insights related to the management of common-pool resources, metapopulation dynamics, and the problem of fit in SES with the set of motifs, we demonstrate the multi-theoretical ability of the framework in a case study of a rural agricultural landscape in southern Madagascar. Several mechanisms explaining the inhabitants’ demonstrated ability to preserve their scattered forest patches in spite of strong pressures on land and forest resources are presented.

Biofuel scenarios in a water perspective: the global blue and green water footprint of road transport in 2030

Abstract: Concerns over energy security and climate change stimulate developments towards renewable energy. Transport is expected to switch from fossil fuel use to the use of fuel mixtures with a larger fraction of biofuels, e.g. bio-ethanol and biodiesel. Growing biomass for biofuels requires water, a scarce resource. Existing scenarios on freshwater use usually consider changes in food and livestock production, and industrial and domestic activities. This research assesses global water use changes related to increasing biofuel use for road transport in 2030 and evaluates the potential contribution to water scarcity. To investigate water demand changes related to a transition to biofuels in road transport, the study combines data from water footprint (WF) analyses with information from the IEA APS energy scenario for 2030. It includes first-generation biofuels, bio-ethanol from sugar cane, sugar beet, sweet sorghum, wheat and maize, and biodiesel from soybean, rapeseed, jatropha and oil palm. Under the IEA APS scenario, the global biofuel WF will increase more than tenfold in the period 2005–2030. The USA, China and Brazil together will contribute half of the global biofuel WF. In many countries, blue biofuel WFs significantly contribute to blue water scarcity. The research provides a first exploration of the potential contribution of transport biofuel use to blue water scarcity. In 2030, the global blue biofuel WF might have grown to 5.5% of the totally available blue water for humans, causing extra pressure on fresh water resources. When biofuel use continues to expand after 2030, countries should therefore consider the water factor when investigating the extent to which biofuels can satisfy future transport energy demand

Big brand sustainability: Governance prospects and environmental limits

Abstract: A B S T R A C T This article introduces and evaluates the implications for global environmental change of the rising power and authority of big brand companies as global environmental governors. Contributing to the private governance literature and, in particular, addressing the gap in this research with respect to the political implications of individual firm ‘buyer power’, the article provides evidence and analysis of how big brand sustainability is altering the power relations within global supply chains, and the governance prospects and limits of this trend. The authors argue that recent brand company efforts through their global supply chains, while still a long way off from their goals, are achieving environmental gains in product design and production. Yet, these advances are also fundamentally limited. Total environmental impacts of consumption are increasing as brand companies leverage corporate sustainability for competitive advantage, business growth, and increased sales. Big brand sustainability, while important, will not on its own resolve the problems of global environmental change. In conclusion, the article highlights the importance of a co-regulatory governance approach that includes stronger state regulations, sustained advocacy, more responsible individual consumerism, and tougher international legal constraints to go beyond the business gains from big brand sustainability to achieve more transformational, ‘absolute’ global environmental progress.

Trading more food: Implications for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system

Abstract: The volume of agricultural trade increased by more than ten times throughout the past six decades and is likely to continue with high rates in the future. Thereby, it largely affects environment and climate. We analyse future trade scenarios covering the period of 2005–2045 by evaluating economic and environmental effects using the global land-use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”). This is the first trade study using spatially explicit mapping of land use patterns and greenhouse gas emissions. We focus on three scenarios: the reference scenario fixes current trade patterns, the policy scenario follows a historically derived liberalisation pathway, and the liberalisation scenario assumes a path, which ends with full trade liberalisation in 2045. Further trade liberalisation leads to lower global costs of food. Regions with comparative advantages like Latin America for cereals and oil crops and China for livestock products will export more. In contrast, regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia face the highest increases of imports. Deforestation, mainly in Latin America, leads to significant amounts of additional carbon emissions due to trade liberalisation. Non-CO2 emissions will mostly shift to China due to comparative advantages in livestock production and rising livestock demand in the region. Overall, further trade liberalisation leads to higher economic benefits at the expense of environment and climate, if no other regulations are put in place.

Energy transitions and the global land rush: Ultimate drivers and persistent consequences

Abstract: While the recent emergence of a global land rush has initiated large debates and conflicts over the use and access to land, further investigation into the underlying drivers is required to enhance the understanding of the potential trajectories of the land grab phenomenon. This paper takes a biophysical perspective and explores how declining fossil stocks and a global transition towards renewable energies ultimately drive the land rush. The paper addresses, in qualitative terms, how societal needs for land change with different patterns of societal energy metabolism. The potential spatial expansions of renewables are illustrated in quantitative terms, based on the power density concept and energy provision forecasts for the year 2020. The transition from an energy system based on fossils stocks, with high power densities, to one based on renewables, with low power densities, drastically boosts societal demand for land. This drives the land rush directly through land acquisitions for the expansion of energy systems. The energy transition also drives the land rush indirectly, in particular through food security threats motivated by the growing competition over farmland uses and changes in crop supply. Although currently fossil stocks are still relatively abundant, future declines are expected to trigger the demand for land to even greater extents. Given the inevitability of the energy transition, we believe that the land rush will have persistence, bearing long-term consequences for land use and struggles over access to land.

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

Abstract: Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

Cross-boundary and cross-level dynamics increase vulnerability to severe winter disasters (dzud) in Mongolia

Abstract: Dzud is the Mongolian term for a severe winter weather disaster. With global change dzud may increase in frequency and intensity, placing livestock and livelihoods at risk. We conducted in-depth case studies of dzud impacts and responses in two mountain-steppe and two Gobi desert-steppe districts in Mongolia. We used focus groups, key informant interviews, a household survey and photovoice to document individual and community experiences with dzud and identify the factors that make some households and communities more vulnerable to dzud and others less so. We found that dzud is a complex social–ecological phenomenon and vulnerability to dzud is a function of interacting physical, biological, socio-economic and institutional factors. Vulnerability was affected by factors within and interactions between communities as well as cross-level dynamics. Communities that are well prepared for dzud at the household level may suffer disproportionate losses if exposure is increased by in-migrating livestock from other districts. Relief aid that helps prevent loss of life, suffering and impoverishment in the short-term may contribute to long-term dependence syndromes, social disparities, and lack of initiative on the part of both herders and local government. Based on our findings, we recommend that dzud policies and programs promote: (1) increased individual responsibility for disaster preparedness; (2) greater cooperation and communication on disaster planning and response among different actors within communities and across governance levels; (3) sustained and scaled out investment in building local capacity for collective action through formal herder organizations; and (4) effective cross-level institutions to manage pastoral movements and pastures.