Showing papers in "Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions in 2019"

Climate, conflict and forced migration

Abstract: Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010-2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.

Agricultural and forestry trade drives large share of tropical deforestation emissions

Abstract: Deforestation, the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is largely driven by expanding forestry and agriculture. However, despite agricultural expansion being increasingly driven by foreign demand, the links between deforestation and foreign demand for agricultural commodities have only been partially mapped. Here we present a pan-tropical quantification of carbon emissions from deforestation associated with the expansion of agriculture and forest plantations, and trace embodied emissions through global supply chains to consumers. We find that in the period 2010–2014, expansion of agriculture and tree plantations into forests across the tropics was associated with net emissions of approximately 2.6 gigatonnes carbon dioxide per year. Cattle and oilseed products account for over half of these emissions. Europe and China are major importers, and for many developed countries, deforestation emissions embodied in imports rival or exceed emissions from domestic agriculture. Depending on the trade model used, 29–39% of deforestation-related emissions were driven by international trade. This is substantially higher than the share of fossil carbon emissions embodied in trade, indicating that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change need to consider the role of international demand in driving deforestation. Additionally, we find that deforestation emissions are similar to, or larger than, other emissions in the carbon footprint of key forest-risk commodities. Similarly, deforestation emissions constitute a substantial share (˜15%) of the total carbon footprint of food consumption in EU countries. This highlights the need for consumption-based accounts to include emissions from deforestation, and for the implementation of policy measures that cross these international supply-chains if deforestation emissions are to be effectively reduced.

Climate change perceptions and their individual-level determinants: A cross-European analysis

Abstract: There is now an extensive literature on the question of how individual-level factors affect climate change perceptions, showing that socio-political variables, notably values, worldviews and political orientation, are key factors alongside demographic variables. Yet little is known about cross-national differences in these effects, as most studies have been conducted in a single or small number of countries and cross-study comparisons are difficult due to different conceptualisations of key climate change dimensions. Using data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (n = 44,387), we examine how key socio-political and demographic factors are associated with climate change perception across 22 European countries and Israel. We show that human values and political orientation are important predictors of climate change beliefs and concern, as are the demographics of gender, age, and education. Certain associations with climate change perceptions, such as the ones for the self-transcendence versus self-enhancement value dimension, political orientation, and education, are more consistent across countries than for gender and age. However, even if the direction of the associations are to a large extent consistent, the sizes of the effects are not. We demonstrate that the sizes of the effects are generally smaller in Central and Eastern European countries, and that some demographic effects are larger in Northern European as compared to Western European countries. This suggests that findings from one country do not always generalize to other national contexts.

Passive crowdsourcing of social media in environmental research: A systematic map

Abstract: The analysis of data from social media and social networking sites may be instrumental in achieving a better understanding of human-environment interactions and in shaping future conservation and environmental management. In this study, we systematically map the application of social media data in environmental research. The quantitative review of 169 studies reveals that most studies focus on the analysis of people’s behavior and perceptions of the environment, followed by environmental monitoring and applications in environmental planning and governance. The literature testifies to a very rapid growth in the field, with Twitter (52 studies) and Flickr (34 studies) being most frequently used as data sources. A growing number of studies combine data from multiple sites and jointly investigates multiple types of media. A broader, more qualitative review of the insights provided by the investigated studies suggests that while social media data offer unprecedented opportunities in terms of data volume, scale of analysis, and real-time monitoring, researchers are only starting to cope with the challenges of data’s heterogeneity and noise levels, potential biases, ethics of data acquisition and use, and uncertainty about future data availability. Critical areas for the development of the field include integration of different types of information in data mashups, development of quality assurance procedures and ethical codes, improved integration with existing methods, and assurance of long-term, free and easy-to-access provision of public social media data for future environmental researchers.

Multi-level governance and power in climate change policy networks

Abstract: This article proposes an innovative theoretical framework that combines institutional and policy network approaches to study multi-level governance. The framework is used to derive a number of propositions on how cross-level power imbalances shape communication and collaboration across multiple levels of governance. The framework is then applied to examine the nature of cross-level interactions in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy processes in the land use sectors of Brazil and Indonesia. The paper identifies major barriers to cross-level communication and collaboration between national and sub-national levels. These are due to power imbalances across governance levels that reflect broader institutional differences between federal and decentralized systems of government. In addition, powerful communities operating predominantly at the national level hamper cross-level interactions. The analysis also reveals that engagement of national level actors is more extensive in the mitigation and that of local actors in the adaptation policy domain, and specialisation in one of the climate change responses at the national level hampers effective climate policy integration in the land use sector.

The black box of power in polycentric environmental governance

Abstract: Failure to address unsustainable global change is often attributed to failures in conventional environmental governance. Polycentric environmental governance—the popular alternative—involves many centres of authority interacting coherently for a common governance goal. Yet, longitudinal analysis reveals many polycentric systems are struggling to cope with the growing impacts, pace, and scope of social and environmental change. Analytic shortcomings are also beginning to appear, particularly in the treatment of power. Here we draw together diverse social science perspectives and research into a variety of cases to show how different types of power shape rule setting, issue construction, and policy implementation in polycentric governance. We delineate an important and emerging research agenda for polycentric environmental governance, integrating diverse types of power into analytical and practical models.

Integrated assessment of biomass supply and demand in climate change mitigation scenarios

Abstract: Biomass is often seen as a key component of future energy systems as it can be used for heat and electricity production, as a transport fuel, and a feedstock for chemicals. Furthermore, it can be used in combination with carbon capture and storage to provide so-called “negative emissions”. At the same time, however, its production will require land, possibly impacting food security, land-based carbon stocks, and other environmental services. Thus, the strategies adopted in the supply, conversion, and use of biomass have a significant impact on its effectiveness as a climate change mitigation measure. We use the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model to project three different global, long term scenarios spanning different socioeconomic futures with varying rates of population growth, economic growth, and technological change, and investigate the role of biomass in meeting strict climate targets. Using these scenarios we highlight different possibilities for biomass supply and demand, and provide insights on the requirements and challenges for the effective use of this resource as a climate change mitigation measure. The results show that in scenarios meeting the 1.5 °C target, biomass could exceed 20% of final energy consumption, or 115–180 EJPrim/yr in 2050. Such a supply of bioenergy can only be achieved without extreme levels land use change if agricultural yields improve significantly and effective land zoning is implemented. Furthermore, the results highlight that strict mitigation targets are contingent on the availability of advanced technologies such as lignocellulosic fuels and carbon capture and storage.

Empathy, place and identity interactions for sustainability

Abstract: Sustainability science recognises the need to fully incorporate cultural and emotional dimensions of environmental change to understand how societies deal with and shape anticipated transformations, unforeseen risks and increasing uncertainties. The relationship between empathy and sustainability represents a key advance in understanding underpinning human-environment relations. We assert that lack of empathy for nature and for others limits motivations to conserve the environment and enhance sustainability. Critically, the relationship between empathy and sustainability is mediated by place and identity that constrain and shape empathy’s role in pro-environmental sustainability behaviour. We review emerging evidence across disciplines and suggest a new model exploring interactions between place, identity and empathy for sustainability. There are emerging innovative methodological approaches to observe, measure and potentially stimulate empathy for sustainability.

One thousand ways to experience loss: A systematic analysis of climate-related intangible harm from around the world

Abstract: A situated and socially engaged science of loss arising from climate change takes people’s lived experiences with risk and harm as its fundamental starting point. It foregrounds what losses occur, where and how, which of these losses matter most to people and why, and whether or not such losses are considered acceptable and potentially reversible. However, obtaining such insight is difficult if the many things people value, across space and time, are intangible, i.e. they cannot and perhaps should not be quantified, and hence are often overlooked and omitted. This is the case, for instance, for the symbolic and affective dimensions of culture and place, such as sense of belonging, personal and collective notions of identity, and ways of knowing and making sense of the world, all of which are already undermined by climate change. Here, we perform the first systematic comparative analysis of people-centered and place-specific experiences with climate-related harm to people’s values that are largely intangible and non-commensurable. We draw upon >100 published case studies from around the world to make visible and concrete what matters most to people and what is at stake in the context of climate-related hazards and impacts. We show that the same threats can produce vastly different outcomes, ranging from reversible damages to irreversible losses and anticipated future risks, across numerous value dimensions, for indigenous and non-indigenous families, communities, and countries at all levels of development. Through this analysis, we also empirically validate dimensions of harm that have been produced and reproduced in the literature, albeit often devoid of distinct substance, lived experiences, and intrinsic significance. We end by discussing ethical implications of the ‘one thousand ways’ to encounter harm and offer recommendations to overcome methodological challenges in advancing a science of loss grounded in place.

Transformational adaptation on the farm: Processes of change and persistence in transitions to ‘climate-smart’ regenerative agriculture

Abstract: Regenerative agriculture, an alternative form of food and fiber production, concerns itself with enhancing and restoring resilient systems supported by functional ecosystem processes and healthy, organic soils capable of producing a full suite of ecosystem services, among them soil carbon sequestration and improved soil water retention. As such, climate change mitigation and adaptation are incidental to a larger enterprise that employs a systems approach to managing landscapes and communities. The transformative potential of regenerative agriculture has seen growing attention in the popular press, but few empirical studies have explored the processes by which farmers enter into, navigate, and, importantly, sustain the required paradigm shift in their approach to managing their properties, farm businesses, and personal lives. We draw on theories and insights associated with relational thinking to analyze the experiences of farmers in Australia who have undertaken and sustained transitions from conventional to regenerative agriculture. We present a conceptual framework of “zones of friction and traction” occurring in personal, practical, and political spheres of transformation that both challenge and facilitate the transition process. Our findings illustrate the ways in which deeply held values and emotions influence and interact with mental models, worldviews, and cultural norms as a result of regular monitoring; and how behavioral change is sustained through the establishment of self-amplifying positive feedbacks involving biophilic emotions, a sense of well-being, and an ever-expanding worldview. We conclude that transitioning to regenerative agriculture involves more than a suite of ‘climate-smart’ mitigation and adaptation practices supported by technical innovation, policy, education, and outreach. Rather, it involves subjective, nonmaterial factors associated with culture, values, ethics, identity, and emotion that operate at individual, household, and community scales and interact with regional, national and global processes. Findings have implications for strategies aimed at facilitating a large-scale transition to climate-smart regenerative agriculture.

Criteria for effective zero-deforestation commitments

Abstract: Zero-deforestation commitments are a type of voluntary sustainability initiative that companies adopt to signal their intention to reduce or eliminate deforestation associated with commodities that they produce, trade, and/or sell. Because each company defines its own zero-deforestation commitment goals and implementation mechanisms, commitment content varies widely. This creates challenges for the assessment of commitment implementation or effectiveness. Here, we develop criteria to assess the potential effectiveness of zero-deforestation commitments at reducing deforestation within a company supply chain, regionally, and globally. We apply these criteria to evaluate 52 zero-deforestation commitments made by companies identified by Forest 500 as having high deforestation risk. While our assessment indicates that existing commitments converge with several criteria for effectiveness, they fall short in a few key ways. First, they cover just a small share of the global market for deforestation-risk commodities, which means that their global impact is likely to be small. Second, biome-wide implementation is only achieved in the Brazilian Amazon. Outside this region, implementation occurs mainly through certification programs, which are not adopted by all producers and lack third-party near-real time deforestation monitoring. Additionally, around half of all commitments include zero-net deforestation targets and future implementation deadlines, both of which are design elements that may reduce effectiveness. Zero-net targets allow promises of future reforestation to compensate for current forest loss, while future implementation deadlines allow for preemptive clearing. To increase the likelihood that commitments will lead to reduced deforestation across all scales, more companies should adopt zero-gross deforestation targets with immediate implementation deadlines and clear sanction-based implementation mechanisms in biomes with high risk of forest to commodity conversion.

Mapping narratives of urban resilience in the global south

Abstract: In the context of global environmental change much hope is placed in the ability of resilience thinking to help address environment-related risks. Numerous initiatives aim at incorporating resilience into urban planning practices. The purpose of this paper is to open up a conversation on urban resilience by unpacking how diverse science methods contribute to the production of different narratives of urban resilience mobilizing different experts and forms of evidence. A number of scholars have cautioned against uncritical approaches to resilience and asked what resilience means and for whom, also pointing out the normative dimension of the concept. Building on this emerging scholarship we use insights from science and technology studies (STS) and critical social sciences to look at the knowledge infrastructures and networks of actors involved in the development of resilience strategies. Drawing on fieldwork in Manila, Nairobi, and Cape Town, we map different narratives of urban resilience identifying the ways in which science serves to legitimate or alienate particular perspectives on what should be done. We discuss the multiple roles that science methods have for resilience planning. Whereas urban resilience is often portrayed as consensual, we show that a range of narratives, with diverse socio-material implications, exist at the city level. In this way we unearth the conflict that lies beneath an apparent consensus for resilience policy and outline future research directions for urban sustainability.

The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Abstract: Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

Political trust and the relationship between climate change beliefs and support for fossil fuel taxes : Evidence from a survey of 23 European countries

Abstract: Taxes on fossil fuels could be a useful policy tool for governments seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, such taxes are politically challenging to introduce, as public opinion is us ...

Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards

Abstract: Death tolls and economic losses from natural hazards continue to rise in many parts of the world. With the aim to reduce future impacts from natural disasters it is crucial to understand the variability in space and time of the vulnerability of people and economic assets. In this paper we quantified the temporal dynamics of socio-economic vulnerability, expressed as fatalities over exposed population and losses over exposed GDP, to climate-related hazards between 1980 and 2016. Using a global, spatially explicit framework that integrates population and economic dynamics with one of the most complete natural disaster loss databases we quantified mortality and loss rates across income levels and analyzed their relationship with wealth. Results show a clear decreasing trend in both human and economic vulnerability, with global average mortality and economic loss rates that have dropped by 6.5 and nearly 5 times, respectively, from 1980-1989 to 2007-2016. We further show a clear negative relation between vulnerability and wealth, which is strongest at the lowest income levels. This has led to a convergence in vulnerability between higher and lower income countries. Yet, there is still a considerable climate hazard vulnerability gap between poorer and richer countries.

The whole systems energy injustice of four European low-carbon transitions

Abstract: The need for multi-scalar analysis of energy and low-carbon systems is becoming more apparent as a way to assess the holistic socioeconomic and environmental impacts of energy transitions across a variety of scales and lifecycle stages. This paper conducts a whole systems energy justice analysis of four European low-carbon transitions—nuclear power in France, smart meters in Great Britain, electric vehicles in Norway, and solar photovoltaic panels in Germany. It asks: in what ways may each of these transitions result in injustices that extend beyond communities and countries, i.e., across the whole system? It utilizes a mixed-methods research design based on 64 semi-structured research interviews with experts across all four transitions, five public focus groups, and the collection of 58 comments from twelve public internet forums to answer this question. Drawing inductively from these data, the paper identifies and analyzes 44 injustices spread across three spatial scales. Micro scale injustices concern immediate local impacts on family livelihood, community health and the environment. Meso scale injustices include national-scale issues such as rising prices for electricity and gas or unequal access to low-carbon technology. Macro scale injustices include global issues such as the extraction of minerals and metals and the circulation of waste flows. The paper then discusses these collective injustices in terms of their spatiality and temporality, before offering conclusions for energy and climate research and policy.

Priming critical thinking: Simple interventions limit the influence of fake news about climate change on Facebook

Abstract: Fake news about climate change refers to fabricated information that mimics the appearance of legitimate reporting but is intended to mislead consumers. In light of concerns about fake news regarding climate change and other topics, researchers and media providers have been searching for ways to limit its spread and influence. This study tested the effect of two simple interventions, both of which primed critical thinking, on individuals’ evaluation of the credibility of real and fake news about climate change on Facebook. Through an online experiment (n = 2,750 participants), participants either read a series of guidelines for evaluating news online, or read and then rated the importance of each guideline; a control group was not exposed to guidelines of any type. We found that participants exposed to both types of guidelines reported a reduced likelihood to trust, like, and share fake news about climate change on Facebook. Importantly, exposure to these guidelines did not diminish individuals’ likelihood to trust, like, or share legitimate climate news. The effect sizes for both types of intervention were small. However, because of the scale and speed at which social media operates, even a small reduction in users’ likelihood to trust, like, and share fake news could be meaningful and impactful.

The development of children’s environmental attitude and behavior

Abstract: Environmental attitude and behavior are at the roots of a sustainable future, yet little is known about their developmental origins in early childhood. This longitudinal study is the first to examine how children’s environmental attitude and behavior develop throughout childhood (ages 7 to 18, N = 118). Environmental attitude and behavior form around the age of 7, increase until the age of 10, level off until the age of 14, and then decline again. Environmental behavior develops from childhood to early adolescence and starts consolidating from age 10 onwards, whereas environmental attitude remains in flux at least through early adulthood.

A meta-analysis of field-experiments using social norms to promote pro-environmental behaviors

Abstract: Highlights • We conducted a meta-analysis on field-experiments using social norms to encourage pro-environmental behaviors. • Results of 91 field-experiments (N = 227′730) revealed a positive main effect of social norms on pro-environmental behaviors compared to no-treatment control conditions. • Moderation analysis found that social norms induced implicitly were more influential than social norms induced explicitly and that social norms tended to be more influential in individualistic countries than in collectivistic countries.

Quantifying urban water supply security under global change

Abstract: Urban water supply security is commonly measured in terms of per capita water availability at the city level. However, the actual services that citizens receive are influenced by several components, including (1) a city's access to water, (2) infrastructure for its treatment, storage and distribution, (3) financial capital for building and maintaining infrastructure, and (4) management efficacy for regulating and operating the water system. These four types of "capital" are required for the provision of public water supply services. A fifth capital “community adaptation” is needed when public services are insufficient. Here, we develop and test an integrated framework for the quantification of urban water supply security based on these five capitals. “Security” involves three dimensions: 1) the level of system function (i.e., supply services); 2) risks to these services; and 3) robustness of system functioning. We apply this Capital Portfolio Approach (CPA) to seven urban case studies selected from a wide range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic regions on four continents. Detailed data on urban water infrastructure and services were collected in two cities, and key stakeholder interviews and household surveys were conducted in one city. Additional cities were assessed based on publicly available utility and globally available datasets. We find that in cities with high levels of public services, adaptive capacity remains inactive, while cities with high levels of water insecurity rely on community adaptation for self-provision of services. Inequality in the capacity to adapt leads to variable levels of urban water security and the vulnerability of the urban poor. Results demonstrate the applicability of the presented framework for the assessment of individual urban water systems, as well as for cross-city comparison of any type of cities. We discuss implications for policy and decision-making.

Cross-site analysis of perceived ecosystem service benefits in multifunctional landscapes

Abstract: Rural development policies in many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries promote sustainable landscape management with the intention of providing multiple ecosystem services (ES). Yet, it remains unclear which ES benefits are perceived in different landscapes and by different people. We present an assessment of ES benefits perceived and mapped by residents (n = 2,301) across 13 multifunctional (deep rural to peri-urban) landscapes in Europe. We identify the most intensively perceived ES benefits, their spatial patterns, and the respondent and landscape characteristics that determine ES benefit perception. We find outdoor recreation, aesthetic values and social interactions are the key ES benefits at local scales. Settlement areas are ES benefit hotspots but many benefits are also related to forests, waters and mosaic landscapes. We find some ES benefits (e.g. culture and heritage values) are spatially clustered, while many others (e.g. aesthetic values) are dispersed. ES benefit perception is linked to people’s relationship with and accessibility to a landscape. Our study discusses how a local perspective can contribute to the development of contextualized and socially acceptable policies for sustainable ES management. We also address conceptual confusion in ES framework and present argumentation regarding the links from services to benefits, and from benefits to different types of values.

Certification, good agricultural practice and smallholder heterogeneity: Differentiated pathways for resolving compliance gaps in the Indonesian oil palm sector

Abstract: Enhancing smallholder compliance with sustainability standards and good agricultural practices features prominently on the global sustainability agenda. Operating in a sector that bears intense public scrutiny, Indonesia’s oil palm smallholders are especially confronted by pressures to enhance their environmental performance. Because smallholders experience differentiated compliance barriers however, it is widely recognized that for the purpose of more effectively prioritizing and targeting the necessary intervention support, smallholder heterogeneity needs to be better understood. This is especially the case for independent – in contrast to ‘plasma’ - oil palm smallholders, for whom corporate technical, input and financial support is comparatively inaccessible. Through multivariate analysis, this article contributes to these needs by developing a typology of independent oil palm smallholders in Indonesian Borneo. We subsequently model the predicted probabilities of different types of smallholders complying with Indonesia’s major national sustainability standard and select indicators of good agricultural practice. This analysis reveals structural compliance gaps, which threatens to restrict smallholder access to formal markets in future. In showing that intervention strategies to resolve these compliance gaps can be more impactful when these are adapted to smallholder livelihood assets, portfolios and strategies, this article points to the importance of more explicitly accounting for socio-economic differentiation when addressing contemporary smallholder upgrading challenges. With results however revealing how local entrepreneurs and elites complicit in regulatory evasion and illegal land encroachments play a significant role in the sub-sector, local political resistance to initiatives that aim to bring the sub-sector above board can be anticipated. This highlights how institutional building needs to be more explicitly incorporated into the design of smallholder-centric intervention strategies; through, for example, the adoption of more integrative landscape-level planning approaches.

Delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals through long-term infrastructure planning

Abstract: Through the provision of a range of essential services, infrastructure systems profoundly influence development. At a time of increasing global investment in infrastructure, there is a need to support practitioners in making informed choices in order to achieve progress toward sustainable development objectives. Using the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (the SDGs) as a framework to structure infrastructure decision-making and trade-offs, this analysis develops a performance indicator system that assesses the potential development implications of a portfolio of infrastructure investments and policies. We develop metrics to assess the performance of infrastructure-linked targets. We then embed these metrics in a systems model that allows for the quantification of future infrastructure needs and the assessment of portfolios of infrastructure investments and policies that contribute to meeting these needs. These methods are applied to the small-island country of Curacao, demonstrating the potential for meeting the SDGs through adoption of strategies of cross-sectoral infrastructure investments and policies in the energy, water, wastewater and solid waste sectors. In the face of growing demands for infrastructure services, we find that inaction with regard to infrastructure supply and demand will lead to a 28% decrease in average SDG achievement across these targets by 2030. We assemble a portfolio of interventions that provide infrastructure services across these four sectors that enable achievement of 19 SDG targets directly linked to infrastructure. These interventions imply scaling up of infrastructure where there are gaps in service provision, ranging from an overall 10% increase in the water sector to a 368% increase in waste sector infrastructure from current capacities by 2030. Achieving the SDGs does not necessarily imply more infrastructure: in the energy sector the sustainable policy implies demand reductions of 32% from current levels. Nearly 50% of the assessed targets require intervention in more than one sector, emphasising the interdependent nature of the infrastructure system. The analysis addresses future uncertainties around the key drivers of residential population and tourism growth on the island by modelling infrastructure needs for alternate scenario projections. Averaged across the four sectors, these needs range from −14% (low) to +5% (high) in relation to the moderate projection. The analysis provides the first step towards a practical means of utilising infrastructure to deliver the SDGs, using quantitative indicators to underpin effective decision-making.

The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes

Abstract: Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 008 to 201 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions

Attribution matters: Revisiting the link between extreme weather experience and climate change mitigation responses

Abstract: The literature suggests that extreme weather experiences have potential to increase climate change engagement by influencing the way people perceive the proximity and implications of climate change. Yet, limited attention has been directed at investigating how individual differences in the subjective interpretation of extreme weather events as indications of climate change moderate the link between extreme weather experiences and climate change attitudes. This article contends that subjective attribution of extreme weather events to climate change is a necessary condition for extreme weather experiences to be translated into climate change mitigation responses, and that subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change is influenced by the psychological and social contexts in which individuals appraise their experiences with extreme weather. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, personal experience of this flooding event is shown to only directly predict perceived threat from climate change, and indirectly predict climate change mitigation responses, among individuals who subjectively attributed the floods to climate change. Additionally, subjective attribution of the floods to climate change is significantly predicted by pre-existing climate change belief, political affiliation and perceived normative cues. Attempts to harness extreme weather experiences as a route to engaging the public must be attentive to the heterogeneity of opinion on the attributability of extreme weather events to climate change.

The neotropical reforestation hotspots: A biophysical and socioeconomic typology of contemporary forest expansion

Abstract: Tropical reforestation is a significant component of global environmental change that is far less understood than tropical deforestation, despite having apparently increased widely in scale during recent decades. The regional contexts defining such reforestation have not been well described. They are likely to differ significantly from the geographical profiles outlined by site-specific observations that predominate in the literature. In response, this article determines the distribution, extent, and defining contexts of apparently spontaneous reforestation. It delineates regional ‘hotspots’ of significant net reforestation across Latin America and the Caribbean and defines a typology of these hotspots with reference to the biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics that unite and distinguish amongst them. Fifteen regional hotspots were identified on the basis of spatial criteria pertaining to the area, distribution, and rate of reforestation 2001–2014, observed using a custom continental MODIS satellite land-cover classification. Collectively, these hotspots cover 11% of Latin America and the Caribbean and they include 167,667.7 km2 of new forests. Comparisons with other remotely sensed estimates of reforestation indicate that these hotspots contain a significant amount of tropical reforestation, continentally and pantropically. The extent of reforestation as a proportion of its hotspot was relatively invariable (3–14%) given large disparities in hotspot areas and contexts. An ordination analysis defined a typology of five clusters, distinguished largely by their topographical roughness and related aspects of agro-ecological marginality, climate, population trends, and degree of urbanization: ‘Urban lowlands’, ‘Mountainous populated areas’, ‘Rural highlands’, ‘Rural humid lands’ and ‘Rural dry lands’. The typology highlights that a range of distinct, even oppositional regional biophysical, demographic, and agricultural contexts have equally given rise to significant, regional net reforestation, urging a concomitant diversification of forest transition science.

Out of sight, out of mind: Plastic waste exports, psychological distance and consumer plastic purchasing

Abstract: Per capita consumption of plastic continues to increase and remains at high levels in high-income countries, despite obvious contributions to the global problem of plastics pollution. This paper attempts to provide an explanation for this phenomenon based on construal level theory, positing that plastic waste is a problem that is perceived as “out of sight and out of mind” for consumers in high plastic consumption (typically high income) countries and that this is influenced by the export of plastic waste to other (typically lower income and lower consumption) countries for disposal – shifting the burden of mismanaged plastic waste and perceptions of plastics pollution in the countries creating the majority of plastic waste. The apparent lack of plastics pollution in a local environment becomes a mediator, influenced by the export of plastic waste, which may then contribute to further plastics consumption. The theory is tested using structural equation modelling using rare, available matched data for mismanaged plastic waste, plastic waste exports, and plastics consumption at an aggregate country level. All study hypotheses are supported. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research and practice, including potential changes to government policy aimed at reducing future plastics consumption and pollution.

Towards meaningful consumption-based planetary boundary indicators: the phosphorus exceedance footprint

Abstract: The idea of measuring humanity’s footprint against planetary boundaries has attracted wide academic attention but methods to implement the theory in sustainability accounting remain underexplored. To help nations take collective actions to stay within a safe operating space, footprinting approaches need to be revised to accommodate biophysical limits. Here we develop a novel sustainability indicator, the phosphorus exceedance footprint (PEF) that measures countries’ contributions to the transgression of the planetary boundaries for phosphorus. Adopting a consumption-based perspective reveals how nations contribute to environmentally unsustainable phosphorus pollution in their trading partners. This captures country-specific transgression through supply chains in a way that complements conventional footprinting. In 2011, 27% of the world’s PEF was associated with international trade flows. Wealthier countries tend to reduce their domestic phosphorus fertiliser exceedance, thus preserving their own natural environment, while increasing their share of imported P-embodied products through trade. A pattern of highly uneven distribution of phosphorus-compromised economies is revealed, with 76% of the worldwide exceeded phosphorus embodied in exports supplied by only four countries: China (42%), Brazil (19%), India (10%) and New Zealand (54%). All countries transgress phosphorus planetary boundaries, even those that do not exceed their own territorial boundaries. Our findings highlight that mitigation strategies need to include international cooperation on increasing the efficiency of fertiliser use and reducing the demand of products that cause phosphorus exceedance.

Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Abstract: Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate change-migration nexus.

Weaponizing vulnerability to climate change

Abstract: As scores of climate change adaptation measures are implemented around the world, there have been growing calls among academics and practitioners to also address the processes that underpin human vulnerability to climate change. However, there is mounting evidence that adaptation and vulnerability are linked, such that ostensibly adaptive responses can have negative consequences and augment people’s vulnerability. We analyzed several climate change responses at various scales and developed a typology of five discrete but related modes by which the vulnerability of already vulnerable populations is being [re]produced. Crucially, this work suggests that for at least one of these modes, the vulnerability of other groups is perversely inverted, such that relatively secure populations perceive themselves to be at risk. The cases we present illustrate that people’s vulnerability is being used against them, or put another way, is being weaponized―exacerbating their precarity by excluding them from much needed and due assistance, while directing resources instead to bolstering the well-being of those already well-positioned to respond to climate threats. Our typology provides a theoretical intervention by illustrating how climate vulnerability and security are co-produced, as well as a practical tool to help decision makers to adopt more just and equitable climate policies.