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Showing papers in "IMF Working Papers in 2011"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper investigated the link between nonperforming loans (NPL) and macroeconomic performance using two complementary approaches: panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) and impulse response functions (IRFs).
Abstract: We analyze the link between nonperforming loans (NPL) and macroeconomic performance using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of NPL in panel regressions and confirm that adverse macroeconomic developments are associated with rising NPL. Second, we investigate the feedback between NPL and its macroeconomic determinants in a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model. The impulse response functions (IRFs) attribute to NPL a central role in the linkages between credit market frictions and macrofinancial vulnerability. They suggest that a sharp increase in NPL triggers long-lived tailwinds that cripple macroeconomic performance from several fronts.

382 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper presented a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009, focusing on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by a response to prospective economic conditions.
Abstract: This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, Budget Speeches, central bank reports, Convergence and Stability Programs submitted by the authorities to the European Commission, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation.

327 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions.
Abstract: This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.

250 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review existing theory and evidence on the efficacy of an FTT in fulfilling those tasks, on its potential impact, and on key issues to be faced in designing taxes of this kind.
Abstract: In reaction to the recent financial crisis, increased attention has recently been given to financial transaction taxes (FTTs) as a means of (1) raising revenue for a variety of possible purposes and/or (2) helping to curb financial market excesses. This paper reviews existing theory and evidence on the efficacy of an FTT in fulfilling those tasks, on its potential impact, and on key issues to be faced in designing taxes of this kind.

179 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors analyzes the factors underlying this process of external adjustment and finds that countries whose pre-crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be explained by economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance.
Abstract: After widening substantially in the period preceding the global financial crisis, current account imbalances across the world have contracted to a significant extent. This paper analyzes the factors underlying this process of external adjustment. It finds that countries whose pre-crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be explained by economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance. External adjustment in deficit countries was achieved primarily through demand compression, rather than expenditure switching. Changes in other investment flows were the main channel of financial account adjustment, with official external assistance and ECB liquidity cushioning the exit of private capital flows for some countries.

152 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4, and analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equity prices.
Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4. Specifically, we analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equity prices. We report three main results. First, financial cycles tend to be long and severe, especially those in housing and equity markets. Second, they are highly synchronized within countries, particularly credit and house price cycles. The extent of synchronization of financial cycles across countries is high as well, mainly for credit and equity cycles, and has been increasing over time. Third financial cycles accentuate each other and become magnified, especially during coincident downturns in credit and housing markets. Moreover, globally synchronized downturns tend to be associated with more prolonged and costly episodes, especially for credit and equity cycles. We discuss how these findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments.

151 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007 was investigated, and the authors investigated whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth.
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further, we investigate whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth. In estimating the impact of ICT on economic growth, we use a wide range of ICT indicators, including mobile and fixed telephone penetration rates and the cost of local calls. We address any endogeneity issues by using the System Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator. Financial inclusion is captured by variables measuring access to financial services, such as the number of deposits or loans per head, compiled by Beck, Demirguc-Kunt, and Martinez Peria (2007) and the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP, 2009). The results confirm that ICT, including mobile phone development, contribute significantly to economic growth in African countries. Part of the positive effect of mobile phone penetration on growth comes from greater financial inclusion. At the same time, the development of mobile phones consolidates the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth, especially in countries where mobile financial services take hold.

139 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of political instability on economic growth were empirically determined using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.

135 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the effects that variations in international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007.
Abstract: We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.

109 citations


Posted ContentDOI
TL;DR: The authors describes three main purposes for reserve requirements - prudential, monetary control, and liquidity management - and suggests best practice for the structure of a reserve regime and illustrates current practices using a 2010 IMF survey of 121 central banks.
Abstract: Most central banks oblige depository institutions to hold minimum reserves against their liabilities, predominantly in the form of balances at the central bank. The role of these reserve requirements has evolved significantly over time. The overlay of changing purposes and practices has the result that it is not always fully clear what the current purpose of reserve requirements is, and this necessarily complicates thinking about how a reserve regime should be structured. This paper describes three main purposes for reserve requirements - prudential, monetary control and liquidity management - and suggests best practice for the structure of a reserves regime. Finally, the paper illustrates current practices using a 2010 IMF survey of 121 central banks.

107 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined changes in bank credit across a wide range of emerging market economies during the last decade and found that domestic and foreign funding contribute positively and symmetrically to credit growth.
Abstract: We examine changes in bank credit across a wide range of emerging market economies during the last decade. The rich time-series and cross-section information allows us to draw broader lessons compared to many existing researches, which focus on a specific set of emerging market economies or on shorter time periods. Our results show that domestic and foreign funding contribute positively and symmetrically to credit growth. The results also indicate that stronger economic growth leads to higher credit growth, and high inflation, while increasing nominal credit, is detrimental to real credit growth. We also find that loose monetary conditions, either domestic or global, result in more credit, and that the health of the banking sector also matters. Finally, we discuss some policy lessons.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles is proposed, which explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios and key business cycle moments.
Abstract: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article found that loan-tovalue and debt-to-income limits are associated with a decline in house price appreciation and transaction activity, and that the limits alter expectations, which played a key role in bubble dynamics.
Abstract: With another real estate boom-bust bringing woes to the world economy, a quest for a better policy toolkit to deal with these boom-busts has begun. Macroprudential measures could be in such a toolkit. Yet, we know very little about their impact. This paper takes a step to fill this gap by analyzing the Korean experience with these measures. We find that loan-to-value and debt-to-income limits are associated with a decline in house price appreciation and transaction activity. Furthermore, the limits alter expectations, which play a key role in bubble dynamics.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explain the rise of shadow banking from a demand-side perspective through the profiling of institutional cash pools, showing that banks prefer to avoid too much unsecured exposure to banks even through insured deposits.
Abstract: Through the profiling of institutional cash pools, this paper explains the rise of the "shadow" banking system from a demand-side perspective. Explaining the rise of shadow banking from this angle paints a very different picture than the supply-side angle that views it as a story of banks' funding preferences and arbitrage. Institutional cash pools prefer to avoid too much unsecured exposure to banks even through insured deposits. Short-term government guaranteed securities are the next best choice, but their supply is insufficient. The shadow banking system arose to fill this vacuum. One way to manage the size of the shadow banking system is by adopting the supply management of Treasury bills as a macroprudential tool.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce a new index that captures the institutional environment underpinning public investment management across four different stages: project appraisal, selection, implementation, and evaluation, covering 71 countries, including 40 low-income countries.
Abstract: This paper introduces a new index that captures the institutional environment underpinning public investment management across four different stages: project appraisal, selection, implementation, and evaluation. Covering 71 countries, including 40 low-income countries, the index allows for benchmarking across regions and country groups and for nuanced policy-relevant analysis and identification of specific areas where reform efforts could be prioritized. Potential research venues are outlined.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the determinants of FDI inflows to emerging market economies, concentrating on the effects of economic policies, were investigated, and the role of external push factors and of political stability using a domestic conflict events database.
Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of FDI inflows to emerging market economies, concentrating on the effects of economic policies. The empirical analysis also addresses the role of external push factors and of political stability using a domestic conflict events database. The results suggest that lowering corporate tax rates and trade tariffs, adopting fixed or managed exchange rate policies and eliminating FDI related capital controls have played an important role. Domestic conflict events and political instability are found to have significant negative effects on FDI, which highlights the role of incluside policies to promote growth and avoid sudden stops of FDI inflows.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a theory model of trade finance to explain the "great trade collapse." The model shows that the riskiness of international transactions rises relative to domestic transactions during economic downturns, and the exclusive use of a letter of credit in international transactions exacerbates a collapse in trade during a financial crisis.
Abstract: This paper provides a theory model of trade finance to explain the "great trade collapse." The model shows that, first, the riskiness of international transactions rises relative to domestic transactions during economic downturns, and second, the exclusive use of a letter of credit in international transactions exacerbates a collapse in trade during a financial crisis. The basic model considers banks' optimal screening decisions in the presence of counterparty default risks. In equilibrium, banks will maintain a higher precision screening test for domestic firms and a lower precision screening test for foreign firms, which constitutes the main mechanism of the model.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the role of asset managers as a major source of funding for banks through the shadow banking system and propose a policy to consider the re-use of pledged collateral when defining bank leverage ratios.
Abstract: The present way of thinking about financial intermediation does not fully incorporate the rise of asset managers as a major source of funding for banks through the shadow banking system. Asset managers are dominant sources of demand for non-M2 types of money and serve as source collateral ?mines' for the shadow banking system. Banks receive funding through the re-use of pledged collateral ?mined' from asset managers. Accounting for this, the size of the shadow banking system in the U.S. may be up to $25 trillion at year-end 2007 and $18 trillion at year-end 2010, higher than earlier estimates. In terms of policy, regulators will need to consider the re-use of pledged collateral when defining bank leverage ratios. Also, given asset managers' demand for non-M2 types of money, monitoring the shadow banking system will warrant closer attention well beyond the regulatory perimeter.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article examined inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession, and found that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial but significant.
Abstract: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors showed that the long-term price elasticities for intra-euro area exports are at least double those for extra-euro areas exports, and that traditional real effective exchange rate indexes may overstate the effectiveness of euro depreciation in restoring exports growth in the euro area periphery.
Abstract: Concerns about export growth within the euro area peripheral countries due to a lack of competitiveness within the euro area are a key policy issue. Our analysis suggests that: (i) Long-term price elasticities for intra-euro area exports are at least double those for extra-euro area exports, so traditional real effective exchange rate indexes may overstate the effectiveness of euro depreciation in restoring exports growth in the euro area periphery and; (ii) There are surprisingly wide divergences across alternative relative price measures and even when relative price data suggest a steady loss in intra- (and extra-) euro area competitiveness, the pace of deterioration depends on the measure of relative prices used.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a DSGE model with banks and financial frictions in credit markets to assess the medium-term macroeconomic costs of increasing capital and liquidity requirements.
Abstract: This paper uses a DSGE model with banks and financial frictions in credit markets to assess the medium-term macroeconomic costs of increasing capital and liquidity requirements. The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic costs of such measures are sensitive to the length of the implementation period as well as to the adjustment strategy used by banks, and the scope for monetary policy to respond to the regulatory changes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The G20 Data Gaps Initiative as mentioned in this paper recommends the collection of consistent bank-level data for joint analyses and enhancements to existing sets of aggregate statistics, and the enhancement to the BIS international banking statistics.
Abstract: The recent financial crisis has shown how interconnected the financial world has become. Shocks in one location or asset class can have a sizable impact on the stability of institutions and markets around the world. But systemic risk analysis is severely hampered by the lack of consistent data that capture the international dimensions of finance. While currently available data can be used more effectively, supervisors and other agencies need more and better data to construct even rudimentary measures of risks in the international financial system. Similarly, market participants need better information on aggregate positions and linkages to appropriately monitor and price risks. Ongoing initiatives that will help in closing data gaps include the G20 Data Gaps Initiative, which recommends the collection of consistent bank-level data for joint analyses and enhancements to existing sets of aggregate statistics, and the enhancement to the BIS international banking statistics.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article showed that food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than non-food inflation, leading to a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses.
Abstract: Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation that exclude food prices can misspecify inflation, leading to higher inflationary expectations, a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses. In constructing measures of core inflation, policymakers should therefore not assume that excluding food price inflation will provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends than headline inflation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that a country classification system based on a transparent, data-driven methodology is preferable to one based on judgment or ad hoc rules, and propose an alternative methodology is developed and used to construct classification systems using a variety of proxies for development attainment.
Abstract: The paper analyzes how the UNDP, the World Bank, and the IMF classify countries based on their level of development. These systems are found lacking in clarity with regard to their underlying rationale. The paper argues that a country classification system based on a transparent, data-driven methodology is preferable to one based on judgment or ad hoc rules. Such an alternative methodology is developed and used to construct classification systems using a variety of proxies for development attainment.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors spell out the circumstances under which a more active policy agenda on this front would be justified and offer tentative insights on the pros and cons as well as implementation challenges of various policy tools that can be used to contain the damage to the financial system and the economy from real estate boom-bust episodes.
Abstract: The financial crisis showed, once again, that neglecting real estate booms can have disastrous consequences. In this paper, we spell out the circumstances under which a more active policy agenda on this front would be justified. Then, we offer tentative insights on the pros and cons as well as implementation challenges of various policy tools that can be used to contain the damage to the financial system and the economy from real estate boom-bust episodes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article found that changes in state-level unemployment rates are linked to skill mismatches and housing market performance even after controlling for cyclical effects, which suggests some causality going from mismatches to housing conditions to unemployment rates.
Abstract: The recent crisis has had differential effects across U.S. states and industries causing a wide geographic dispersion in skill mismatches and housing market performance. We document these facts and, using data from the 50 states plus D.C from 1991 to 2008, we present econometric evidence that supports that changes in state-level unemployment rates are linked to skill mismatches and housing market performance even after controlling for cyclical effects. This result suggests some causality going from mismatches and housing conditions to unemployment rates. The numerical estimates imply that the structural unemployment rate in 2010 was about 1¾ percentage points higher than before the onset of the housing market meltdown at end-2006. Reversing this increase may require targeted active labor market policies and measures to expedite the adjustment in housing markets, as our results suggest weak housing market conditions interact negatively with skill mismatches to produce higher unemployment rates in the United States.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihak (2007), which seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly.
Abstract: This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihak (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main contributions include (a) increasing the risk-sensitivity of stress testing by capturing changes in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) under stress, including for non-internal ratings based (IRB) banks (through a quasi-IRB approach); (b) providing stress testers with a comprehensive platform to use satellite models, and to define various assumptions and scenarios; (c) allowing stress testers to run multi-year scenarios (up to five years) for hundreds of banks, depending on the availability of data. The framework uses balance sheet data and is Excel-based with detailed guidance and documentation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A recent survey of the literature on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro-level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Gaining a better understanding of the behavior of international investors is key for informing the debate about the optimal response to capital flows and about reforms to the international financial architecture. In this context, recent research on the behavior of international mutual funds at the micro level has expanded our knowledge about the drivers of portfolio flows and the mechanisms behind the transmission of financial shocks across countries. This paper provides a brief survey of this literature, with a focus on the empirical evidence for emerging markets. Overall, the behavior of international mutual funds is complex and overly simplistic characterizations are misleading. However, there is broad-based evidence for momentum trading among funds. Moreover, funds tend to avoid opaque markets and assets, and this behavior becomes more pronounced during volatile times. Portfolio rebalancing mechanisms are clearly important in explaining contagion patterns, even in the absence of common macroeconomic fundamentals. From a surveillance point of view, this implies that monitoring the exposures of large investors at a micro level is crucial to assess vulnerabilities.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the last decade, a group of Latin American countries (Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) experienced a gradual, yet sustained decline in financial dollarization as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In the last decade, a group of Latin American countries (Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) experienced a gradual, yet sustained decline in financial dollarization. This paper documents the stylized facts and uses a standard VAR approach to examine the drivers of both deposit and credit de-dollarization. It finds that the exchange rate appreciation has been a key factor explaining deposit de-dollarization. The introduction of prudential measures to create incentives to internalize the risks of dollarization (including an active management of reserve requirement differentials), the development of a capital market in local currency, and de-dollarization of deposits have all contributed to a decline in credit dollarization. Continuing efforts on these fronts, while maintaining macroeconomic stability and strong fundamentals, would help deepening de-dollarization.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors showed that an increase in the public debt levels of large advanced economies -especially the United States - spills over to both emerging markets and other advanced economies' long-term real yields.
Abstract: Several models establish a positive association between public debt ratios and long-term real yields, but the empirical evidence is not always conclusive. We reconsider this issue, focusing in particular on possible spillover effects of large advanced economies' debt levels to other economies' borrowing yields, especially in emerging markets. We extend the existing literature by using real time expectations of fiscal and other macroeconomic variables for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. We show that an increase in the public debt levels of large advanced economies - especially the United States - spills over to both emerging markets and other advanced economies' long-term real yields and that this effect is significant at the current levels of advanced economies' debt ratios.