Showing papers in "International Affairs in 1990"

The greenhouse-effect - negotiating targets

Abstract: The world's climate is heating up. By the year 2030 the global average temperature is likely to be warmer than at any time in the last 120,000 years. The greenhouse effect is a baffling problem and one that may even threaten ecological and human disaster. What are the chances of the world's nations agreeing to limit their energy consumption at a time when the Third World is industrializingfaster than ever? This article shows why effective limits to greenhouse gas emissions will not be negotiable on the basis of country-by-country targets. It looks at the alternatives, including a carbon tax, and argues that a system of tradable carbon emission permits is the only realistic possibility for limiting greenhouse emissions globally. Finally, it considers the alternatives if no global agreement is possible.

International migration and regional stability.

Abstract: The growing concern of governments around the world with trends in immigration is examined. The author notes that the recent political changes in Eastern Europe were precipitated by the mass movement of people from East to West. He also looks at the probable future trends in international migration pressures from developing to developed countries. "This article looks at some of the causes and consequences of international migration and sets out some of the policy questions that Northern and Southern governments will need to address if mass migration movements are to be absorbed and contained. Uncontrolled mass migration it argues could threaten social cohesion international solidarity and peace." (EXCERPT)

Politics and the environment

Abstract: Gwyn Prins outlines the environmental issues coming onto the international policy agenda and argues that governments will find it hard to address these issues effectively because environmental problems are not susceptible to normal political treatment. Environmental effects are synergistic, and environmental problems cannot be successfully tackled discretely, one by one. Their successful resolution would require a concerted, equally synergistic response unprecedented in international or domestic politics. Prins argues that patterns of politics will be changed by the emergence of these issues onto the political agenda. Despite these difficulties, however, we have a powerful new means to respond to environmental problems and exert pressure on governments in the empowering effects of the information technology revolution.

Three competing Europes: German, French, Russian

Abstract: On I8 March i890, Count von Bismarck tendered his resignation to Kaiser Wilhelm II of the Germans. It was as important for Europe when, a hundred years later on the same day, the East German population resigned as the East German people and voted to dissolve their own state and unify with their Western neighbour. The choices of individuals all over East Germany sent shockwaves through the European security system. First to feel the shock, paradoxically, were Chancellor Helmut Kohl and his West German government, though they were committed to the aim of German unity. At first Kohl tried to put the brakes on unification (but also to steer the runaway car), fearing that it would lead to a foreign policy breakdown for Bonn, a return to the postwar Allied regime of I945. In November and December, he tried to keep the speed low to prevent German processes running too far ahead of European ones. But by February I990, international opposition was suddenly overcome. The scene was ready for German unity. Monetary union between West and East was pushed forward and so was general speculation about the road to unity. Once the East German elections were over, Bonn could set a steady course for unity. This pattern we know a fixed speed, a burst of acceleration and then a return to the original speed. It is known as overtaking. We have been watching an overtaking on the autobahn to German unity. Who was overtaken? The French and the Russians, and their ability to set the speed limit. From that point on, German energy was displaced to the European level. The main problem has been how to build Europe in time for Germany. Soon a clear pattern was emerging. While the Germans are clearly getting the version of 'Europe' that they want with unity and with space for economic and cultural expansion into East-Central Europe-the collective endeavour of European

The North—South balance of power

Abstract: If the dramatic developments in Eastern Europe of the last two years are sustained and the Cold War is truly over, then international affairs in the I99OS will be dominated by economic issues. The previous, albeit brief, period of superpower detente in the early and middle I970S enabled the countries of the South to elevate their demands for a more equitable distribution of resources in a New International Economic Order to the top of the international agenda. Will the relaxation in military competition between the major powers in the I99OS enable this feat to be repeated? This article suggests why it is highly unlikely that Southern countries will collectively be able to exert the leverage that they briefly enjoyed in the I970S. The South is palpably weaker, more differentiated, and less unified than it was I5 years ago. Southern countries face formidable problems in acting collectively. The changing global agenda, however, offers a growing number of issues on which there are mutual interests between North and South and on which the cooperation of Southern countries will be necessary if the industrialized countries are to attain their goals. For individual Southern countries there will be opportunities to engage in strategies of issue linkage (between, for example, debt, environmental and market access questions) to improve their bargaining position with the industrialized countries. For the most part, however, such bargaining leverage will not depend upon collective action by the South. The last part of this article argues that the concept of the 'Third World' is of growing irrelevance in an increasingly differentiated global economy. A rethinking of the relationship between the OECD and other countries is necessary which moves beyond the rhetoric of inter-block confrontation to focus on mutual interests and the variety of actors and linkages in the relationship.'

The end of communism in Eastern Europe

Abstract: This article explores why communism has collapsed in Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, it looks at the reasonsfor the speed and the suddenness of the transformation and offers an analysis in terms of the increasing decay of Soviet-type systems throughout the 1980s until they finally proved incapable of self-reproduction. It investigates the variousfactors that contributed to the collapse-economic deprivation, criticismfrom intellectuals, popular demonstrations and divisions within the communist party leaderships. Finally, the article raises questions about the significance of the transformation for the future of Europe as a whole.

1940: fulcrum of the twentieth century?

Abstract: Reynolds' argument is that the fall of France in 1940 was decisive in shaping the pattern of international politics after the Second World War. By drawing the United States and the Soviet Union into the European war, the German victory in France accelerated the rise of the superpowers in the postwar world and the development of the global Cold War competition. For the continental powers it discredited the assertion of national sovereignty and provided the impetus for European integration, but it turned the trend of British policy away from involvement with France in continental affairs and towards a 'special relationship' with the United States. Reynolds argues that it took the Europeans nearly half a century-until the revolutions of 1989-to begin to recover their independence and self-confidence after the collapse of the old European order.

Sovereignty and interdependence : Britain's place in the world

Abstract: Sir Geoffrey Howe examines the concept of sovereignty against the background of British colonial and Commonwealth experience and the British tradition of constitutional change. He sees sovereignty as a nation's practical capacity to maximize its influence in the world. He analyses the partnership in sovereignty embodied in the European Community, and argues that the recombination of sovereignty in the EC is the best guarantee of strengthening Britain's position in the world.