Showing papers in "International Journal of Finance & Economics in 2019"

Modelling long memory volatility in the Bitcoin market: Evidence of persistence and structural breaks

Abstract: Motivated by the emergence of Bitcoin as a speculative financial investment, the purpose of this paper is to examine the persistence in the level and volatility of Bitcoin price, accounting for the impact of structural breaks. Using parametric and semiparametric techniques, we find strong evidence in favour of a permanency of the shocks and lack of mean reversion in the level series. We also reveal evidence of structural changes in the dynamics of Bitcoin. After accounting for the structural breaks in the level series, evidence of mean reversion is uncovered in some cases. Further analyses show evidence of a long memory in the two measures of volatility (absolute and the squared returns), whereas some cases of short memory are revealed in the squared returns series in particular. Practical implications are discussed on the inefficiency in the Bitcoin market and its importance for Bitcoin users and investors.

Board diversity, corporate governance, corporate performance, and executive pay

Abstract: Departing from previous studies, this paper investigates the impact of corporate board diversity on corporate performance and executive pay within the context of MENA countries. Our sample includes a balanced panel of 600 firm-year observations, consisting of 100 individual firms drawn from 5 Middle Eastern countries (Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab of Emirates) over the 2009–2014 period. The findings are three-fold. First, board diversity, as measured by director gender and nationality, has a positive effect on corporate financial performance. Second, the relationship between board diversity and corporate performance is stronger in better-governed firms than their poorly-governed counterparts. Finally, board diversity, as measured by director gender, ethnicity and nationality, enhances the pay-for-performance sensitivity, but not the actual executive pay. Our results suggest that decisions about board diversity are not merely influenced by moral values; they arise because of the cost-benefit considerations of what diversity can bring to the firm. The findings are robust to controlling for different alternatives of board diversity measures, corporate governance proxies, corporate outcomes and types of endogeneities.

The determinants of profitability of Indian commercial banks: A panel data approach

Abstract: The current study examines the determinants of profitability of Indian commercial banks. The analysis is conducted over a period of 10 years in which the Indian banking sector has gone under different changes such as demonetization and issues related to banking sector sustainability and banking sector frauds. The analysis is based on balanced panel data over a period ranging from 2008 to 2017 for 69 commercial Indian banks. Profitability of Indian banks is measured by two proxies, namely, return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE), whereas bank size, assets quality, capital adequacy, liquidity, operating efficiency, deposits, leverage, assets management, and the number of branches are used as bank‐specific factors. Further, a set of macroeconomic determinants such as gross domestic product, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, financial crisis, and demonetization are used as independent variables. Stationary test along with pooled, fixed, random effect models and panel correction standard error are used in this study. The results revealed that bank size, the number of branches, assets management ratio, operational efficiency, and leverage ratio are the most important bank‐specific determinants that affect the profitability of Indian commercial banks as measured by ROA. Furthermore, among the bank‐specific determinants, the results revealed that bank size, assets management ratio, assets quality ratio, and liquidity ratio are found to have a significant positive impact on ROE. With regard to the macroeconomic determinants, the results revealed that the inflation rate, exchange rate, the interest rate, and demonization are found to have a significant impact on ROA. However, in the case of ROE, the results show that all macroeconomic determinants except demonization have a significant impact on the bank's profitability as measured by ROE.

Crude oil price shocks, monetary policy, and China's economy

Abstract: This paper develops a time‐varying parameter vector autoregressive model to examine the dynamic effects of crude oil prices and monetary policy on China's economy during January 1996 to June 2017. The empirical results indicate that (a) in general, international crude oil price shocks have positive effect on China's economic growth and inflation in the short run, but the long‐run effect appears diverse; (b) China's monetary policy shocks have positive effect on the economic growth and inflation overall; specifically, an increase in monetary supply can partly offset crude oil prices' negative effect on China's economic growth; (c) China's monetary policy has positive effect on crude oil prices and plays an important role in the relationship between crude oil price shocks and economy; and (d) during the recent global financial crisis, crude oil price shocks produce greater negative effect on China's economic growth, whereas the long‐run effect of monetary policy on China's economic growth proves weaker, compared with other periods.

Tail dependence networks of global stock markets

Abstract: The Pearson correlation coefficient is used by many researchers to construct complex financial networks. However, it is difficult to capture the structural characteristics of financial markets that have extreme fluctuations. To solve this problem, we resort to tail dependence networks. We first build the edge information of the stock network by adopting Pearson's correlation coefficient and the symmetrized Joe–Clayton copula model, respectively. By using the planar maximally filtered graph method, we filter the edge information, obtain Pearson's correlation coefficient and tail dependence network, and compare their efficiencies. The community structure of the constructed networks is investigated. We find that the global efficiency of tail‐dependent networks is higher than that of the Pearson correlation networks. Further analysis of the nodes in the upper‐ and lower‐tail dependence networks reveals that the European markets are more influential than Asian and African markets during a booming market and a recession market. In addition, different cliques are found in the two tail dependence networks. The finding indicates that financial risks will impact geographically adjacent markets.

The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns in regime switching environment: Evidence from sectoral perspectives

Abstract: This study contributes in building emerging literature by investigating the impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on Malaysian sectoral stock performance. This study models sectoral stock returns as time‐varying transition probability Markovian processes and employs two‐stage Markov‐switching model for findings impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on sectoral stock returns in regime switching environment. The empirical results reveal that linear framework unable to detect the effects global economic policy uncertainty, and the Markov‐switching model exhibits significant effects of global economic policy uncertainty on all sectoral stock returns excluding technology sector in Malaysia stock market. The findings also expose that the effects of global economic policy uncertainty vary across regime states, sectors, and nature of effects, where the negative effects of global economic policy uncertainty dominate over positive effects. The global economic policy uncertainty exhibits greater impacts on stock returns in high‐volatility regime. Thus, the findings confirm the existence of asymmetric, nonlinear, nonmonotonic, and state‐dependent relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and sectoral stock returns in Malaysia. Therefore, the overall empirical findings can be applied in asset pricing and investment decision‐making purposes. The findings also suggest that global economic policy uncertainty can be a systemic risk factor and predictor of stock market returns.

Does the environmental Kuznets curve exist between globalization and energy consumption? Global evidence from the cross‐correlation method

Abstract: We explore the nexus between globalization and energy demand for 86 high‐, middle‐, and low‐income countries over the period 1970–2015. We use a simple approach based on the cross‐correlation to understand how globalization and energy consumption are related in terms of time lags and leads. Our findings show that for 64 out of the 86 countries (approximately 74%), there is clear evidence in support of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The globalized environment (e.g., globalization) has been conducive for the majority of the countries in reducing their long‐term energy consumption. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that the role of “globalization” in the EKC function should not be underestimated by policymakers and governments of these countries while designing a policy framework for the reduction of energy demand in the long run.

Nonperforming loans in the euro area: Are core–periphery banking markets fragmented?

Abstract: The objectives of this study are, first, to examine the causes of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the euro area for the period 2003Q1 to 2016Q1 and, second, to investigate if there is fragmentation between core and periphery banking markets. By employing both fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and Bayesian panel‐cointegration vector autoregression techniques, we estimate the long‐run effects of both bank‐specific and macroeconomic factors on NPLs. We find that NPLs in the euro area have performed an upward (much higher in the periphery) shift after 2008 and are mostly related to worsening macroeconomic conditions. A chi‐square test comparing the estimated coefficients for the core and periphery NPLs rejects the hypothesis of equality revealing another aspect of financial fragmentation in the euro area that leaves the periphery more vulnerable. Such findings can be helpful when designing macroprudential as well as NPL resolution policies.

On the time‐varying links between oil and gold: New insights from the rolling and recursive rolling approaches

Abstract: This study analyses the dynamic linkages between oil and gold prices for the spot and 1‐ to 12‐month futures markets using monthly data over the period 1983–2016. To do this, we use the rolling and recursive rolling Granger causality approaches. The distinguishing feature of this study from the previous studies is that this is the first study investigating the causal links between oil and gold using time‐varying causality tests. The findings show that the causality links between oil and gold display strong time variation. Although causal links are not detected for most of the study period, strong bidirectional or unidirectional causality is found in several subsamples. The duration of the periods with causality links varies from a few months to 3 years, whereas the duration for the noncausality periods might be 15 years long. By date stamping the causality links between oil and gold, our paper discovers that causality from oil to gold is related to large oil price changes, whereas causality from gold to oil is related to large financial crises. The evidence obtained in the paper points out the dangers of assuming a constant causality link between oil and gold markets because these links might break down unexpectedly. Our findings point out to the dangers of assuming noncausality between oil and gold particularly in hedging oil price risk using gold.

Topological applications of multilayer perceptrons and support vector machines in financial decision support systems

Abstract: The heart of this study is particularly on risk assessment of financial decision support systems (FDSSs), to advance the model performance and improve classification accuracy. To conquer the downsides of the classical models, statistical intelligence (SI) technologies, for example, multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) and support vector machines (SVMs), have been deliberated in FDSS applications. Recently, the prestigiousness of SI approaches has been confronted by the latest prediction learners. Therefore, to ensure the competitive performance of SI mechanisms, the current investigation scrutinizes the topological applications of MLPs and SVMs over eight different databases with equivalent combinations in credit scoring and bankruptcy predictions example sets. The experimental results reveal that MLP5‐5 and MLP4‐4, that is, the sigmoid activation function with five and four hidden layers, are the feasible topologies for the MLP algorithm, and on all databases in all performance criterions, SVM trained with the linear kernel function (SVM‐1) achieves better prediction results. From the “Baseline” family, random forest learner brings significant improvements in financial decisions. Lastly, FDSSs are found to be correlated with the nature of databases and the performance criterions of the trained algorithms. The results of this study, however, have practical and managerial implications to make a range of financial and nonfinancial strategies. With these contributions, therefore, our study not only supplements earlier evidence but also enhances the predictive performance of SI algorithms for financial decision support applications.

Effect of determinants on financial leverage in Indian steel industry: A study on capital structure

Abstract: Because India is neither a developed country nor its steel companies are financially self‐sufficient, they are bound to depend on the external capital, resulting the decision to be taken on the leverage ratio as even more crucial. India being the top exporter of iron ores has the potential to be counted as one of the top exporters of steel if the steel companies follow optimal capital structure. Thus, the leverage ratio needs thorough investigation in order to decide the optimal capital structure. Although there have been some attempts, they are not extensive. The objective of this study is to empirically investigate the present capital structure of Indian steel industry from years 2010 until 2017 and the determinants of capital structure and how these determinants correlate with financial leverage. The research objectives are (1) to identify the significant determinants that affect the capital structure and (2) to conduct an extensive and empirical research in order to estimate the correlations of the determinants with the financial leverage. Seven key determinants have been found: They are profitability, asset structure, size, growth opportunities, non‐debt tax shield, liquidity, and risk. The profitability is found to be highly correlated with the debt ratio as was expected and reported in previous studies. The correlations among the determinants such as asset structure, size, and non‐debt tax shield are statistically significant. Profitability and liquidity carry positive relationship with debt ratio, although there is a negative relationship between debt ratio and asset structure.

Examining pecking order versus trade‐off theories of capital structure: New evidence from Japanese firms

Abstract: This study empirically tests the traditional trade‐off model against the pecking order model of capital structure using data from the Japanese listed companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. A pooled sample of 1,362 publicly listed nonfinancial companies from 1991 to 2015 is used to establish the relationship between leverage and its determinants by using the generalized methods of moments econometric framework. The results show that the financing pattern of Japanese firms is consistent with the basic pecking order model, which predicts external debt financing driven by the internal financial deficit.

Circuit breakers as market stability levers: A survey of research, praxis, and challenges

Abstract: Circuit breaker, an automated regulatory instrument employed to deter panic, temper volatility, and prevent crashes, is controversial in financial markets. Proponents claim it provides a propitious time out when price levels are stressed and persuades traders to make rational trading decisions. Opponents demur its potency, dubbing it a barrier to laissez‐faire price discovery process. Since conceptualization in 1970s and practice from 1980s, researchers focused mostly on its ability to allay panic, interference in trading, volatility transmission, prospect of self‐fulfilling prophecy through gravitational pull towards itself, and delayed dissemination of information. Though financial economists are forked on circuit breakers' usefulness, they are a clear favourite among regulators, who downplay the reliability of anti‐circuit breaker findings citing, inter alia, suspect methodology, and lack of statistical power. In the backdrop of 2007–2008 Crisis and 2010 Flash Crash, the drumbeats for more regulatory intervention in markets grew louder. Hence, it is unlikely that intervening mechanism such as circuit breakers will ebb. But are circuit breakers worth it? This paper synthesizes three decades of theoretical and empirical works, underlines the limitations, issues, and methodological shortcomings undermining findings, attempts to explain regulatory rationale, and provides direction for future research in an increasingly complex market climate.

Bank competition, stability, and intervention quality

Abstract: We use a flexible semi‐parametric estimation approach and a sample of 7,227 U.S., U.K., and Canadian banks for 2009–2015 to provide evidence that banking stability is non‐linearly determined by competition. We show that stability is not monotonic against competition, and may increase and decrease at high competition, has a mixed behaviour at medium competition, and increases at low competition. This non‐monotonic stability behaviour at different competition levels is attributed to the intervention quality, which is found to be an important determinant of the competition–stability relation. It is non‐linearly related to and being revised at different competition levels. As intervention is a policy variable, its level can be adjusted to reduce the competition effects on stability. We illustrate that for the U.S. banking sector, the intervention quality has to hedge these competition effects. Regulators should treat intervention quality as a “hedging instrument” against the destabilizing competition effects.

Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises

Abstract: This paper uses macro‐network to measure the interconnectedness of the banking sector and relates it to banking crises in Europe. Beyond cross‐border financial linkages of the banking sector, the macronetwork also accounts for financial linkages to the other main financial and nonfinancial sectors within the economy. We find that a more central position of the banking sector in the macronetwork significantly increases the probability of a banking crisis. By analysing the different types of risk exposures, our evidence shows that credit is an important source of vulnerability. Finally, our early‐warning models augmented with interconnectedness measures outperform traditional models in terms of out‐of‐sample predictions.

Volatility spillovers between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns in Malaysia

Abstract: This study analyses volatility spillovers between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns in Malaysia. The component‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with asymmetric effect is used to decompose volatility into permanent or long‐run component and transitory or short‐run component. Permanent and transitory components of volatility are commonly high in the global financial crisis, 2008. The results of the seemingly unrelated regressions framework show that volatility spillovers of permanent component between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns are stronger than volatility spillovers of transitory component between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns. Moreover, volatility spillovers of permanent and transitory components between real Malaysian ringgit against the U.S. dollar return and real stock price returns are stronger than real Malaysian ringgit against the Japanese yen exchange rate return and real stock price returns. There is some evidence of Granger causality between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns. On the whole, there is some evidence of the link between the exchange rate market and the stock market in Malaysia.

Stock return volatility and capital structure measures of nonfinancial firms in a dynamic panel model: Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract: We investigate the impact of stock return volatility on different capital structure measures of nonfinancial firms in a dynamic panel model. Two‐step system generalized method of moment dynamic panel estimator is applied to nonfinancial sector's data from Pakistan Stock Exchange over the period 2001–2014. The results imply that stock return volatility has a significant negative impact on book leverage and long‐term market leverage ratios. However, stock return volatility causes the increase in total market leverage ratios. Moreover, book leverage and long‐term market leverage of firms decrease as a result of an increase in stock return volatility in different classification of firms. Conversely, stock return volatility has a significant positive impact on total market leverage ratios in those classifications of firms. Capital structure decisions are more sensitive to stock return volatility as default risk increases. Firms significantly go for the reduction in their debt financing due to high stock returns volatility and to avoid from possible consequences of default. The results are robust to alternative measures such as cash flow volatility and earnings volatility.

Multiplex network analysis of the UK over‐the‐counter derivatives market

Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the network of exposures constructed by using the UK trade repository data for three different categories of contracts: interest rate, credit, and foreign exchange derivatives. We study how liquidity shocks related to variation margins propagate across the network and translate into payment deficiencies across different derivative markets. A key finding of the paper is that, in extreme theoretical scenarios where liquidity buffers are small, a handful of institutions may experience significant spillover effects due to the directionality of their portfolios. Additionally, we show that two novel multiplex centrality measures, the Functional Multiplex Eigenvector Centrality and the Functional Multiplex PageRank, can be used as a proxy for the vulnerability of financial institutions, with the Functional Multiplex PageRank improving on the results that can be obtained using the Functional Multiplex Eigenvector Centrality.

Revealing the nexus between oil and exchange rate in the major emerging markets—The timescale analysis

Abstract: This paper investigates the interrelationship between Brent oil price and exchange rate in 10 emerging markets of East Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America. For computational purpose, we apply two innovative methodologies—wavelet coherence and phase difference that are capable of observing different frequency scales. Wavelet coherence results suggest that strong coherence is present during world financial crisis (WFC) in the oil‐exporting countries and in majority of the oil‐importing countries. Phase arrows as well as phase difference suggest negative coherence between oil and exchange rates in the oil‐importing countries during WFC. Negative coherence is found in these countries because currency depreciation was accompanied by immense oil price drop in WFC period. In addition, phase difference has relatively stable in‐phase dynamics in long term in the oil‐importing countries during tranquil periods, which confirms theoretical stance that higher oil prices cause currency depreciation and vice versa. As for the oil‐exporting countries, we find constant and relatively long‐lasting anti‐phase pattern in Russian and Nigerian cases for long‐term horizons but not for Brazilian one.

To profit or not to profit? Assessing financial sustainability outcomes of microfinance institutions

Abstract: We used a multilevel approach on comparing for‐profit and not‐for‐profit microfinance institutions (MFIs). The database was composed of 202 MFIs (in 52 countries) from the most widely used microfinance dataset (the Microfnance Information eXchange, Inc. Market), with 669 observations from 2010 to 2014. Four financial sustainability outcomes were considered: yield on gross portfolio; return on assets; portfolio at risk, 30 days; and operational self‐sufficiency (OSS). Although for‐profit MFIs had a higher Yield, there was no significant effect of profit orientation on ROA, PAR30, and OSS. Further analysis shows that although profit orientation has a significant effect on the yield of small MFIs, it does not have any effect on larger MFIs, which is consistent with the theory that larger MFIs can distribute its fixed costs better, requiring lower interest rates and allowing smaller yield on the gross portfolio. In addition, we show that the intrinsic characteristics of the MFIs account for the majority of the variance from the four outcomes.

Investor trading behaviour and stock price crash risk

Abstract: This paper sheds new light on the relation between investor trading behaviour and crash risk to examine how investors react to stocks with lottery features in Chinese Stock Market. We find that investor trading behaviour has a greater impact on stocks with higher crash risk, which implies that investors overreact to stocks with higher stock price crash risk. Furthermore, investor trading behaviour has strongest effects on stocks with highest crash risk and highest idiosyncratic risk and has weakest effects on stocks with lowest crash risk and lowest idiosyncratic risk, which indicates that investors gamble lottery‐like stocks with high crash risk and high idiosyncratic risk. Collectively, these results support a role for investor trading behaviour in the formation of stock returns.

The optimal hedge strategy of crude oil spot and futures markets: Evidence from a novel method

Abstract: Hedging is an important measure for investors to resist extreme risks and improve their profits. This paper develops a FIGARCH–EVT–copula–VaR model to derive hedge ratio when hedging crude oil spot and futures markets, overcoming the limitations of static models and simple dynamic models in existing literature. The empirical results indicate that the FIGARCH–EVT–copula–VaR model is superior to the other three commonly used models based on four criteria: mean of returns, variance of returns, ratio of mean to variance of returns, and hedging effectiveness. Comparatively, the new model has superior performance to other three models during the sample period and can be used by investors to obtain excellent hedging effect.

What does unconventional monetary policy do to stock markets in the euro area

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the European Central Bank's unconventional monetary surprises on major European stock markets. Three measures for surprises are used: (a) the change in domestic 10‐year government bond yields, (b) the change in the spread between German and Italian (Spanish) 10‐year bond yields, and (c) the change in yields of a safe euro‐denominated asset, such as German bonds. I show that unconventional monetary policy surprises significantly influence stock returns. For instance, monetary decisions that cause a decrease in Italian (Spanish) sovereign spread led to an increase in the stock returns. In addition, I find that a positively surprising shock—a fall in the domestic bond yield and an increase in German interest rates—leads to higher stock returns. Finally, sovereign spreads seemed to have larger effects on stock returns both during crisis and postcrisis years.

Interrelations of U.S. market fears and emerging markets returns: Global evidence

Abstract: We investigate the interrelations between U.S. stock market uncertainty (VIX) and equity returns in several emerging markets (EMs) in an integrated multivariate system that allows the interactions through the first and second moments of VIX and return processes. Our VARMAX‐CCC‐QGARCH model finds significant interactions in the covariance terms of VIX and EM returns, which facilitate risk transmission. Changes in VIX negatively affect EM returns, which also significantly affect VIX changes. We find that VIX changes and EM returns collectively have predictive ability for each other. Further, VIX shocks contribute 22–42% to the prediction error of EM returns. Our results underscore the importance of capturing interactions between VIX changes and EM returns through their variance–covariance matrix and have important implications for global diversification, flight‐to‐safety choices, and hedging the cross‐market risks.

The finance–growth nexus: Does risk premium matter?

Abstract: The bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis is employed in this paper to examine whether the risk premium demanded by the banking sector moderates the finance–growth nexus with data (1970–2015) from South Africa. To the extent that the interaction between risk premium and financial development positively affects growth in the long run, we affirm that the risk premium demanded by the banking sector represents a significant channel through which financial development drives growth. The main policy implication of this finding is that financial liberalization that removes interest rates restrictions, allowing the banking sector to adequately price risk, is in the best interest of the South African economy.

U.S. economic uncertainty, EU business cycles, and the global financial crisis

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the U.S. economic uncertainty on the business cycles (changes in the industrial production) of 12 European Union (EU) countries before and during the global financial crisis. Empirical tests are conducted using the linear and non‐linear causality tests, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. Results show ample evidence of causality from the U.S. uncertainty to EU business cycles only when the crisis period is included in the analysis. Both the linear and non‐linear tests confirm the significance of U.S. uncertainty as a short‐term predictor of business cycles of the EU.

Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the Euro: A GVAR approach

Abstract: During the 2008 financial crisis, increasing risk and spillovers became a main concern for policy makers and banks. In addition, changes in sovereign and bank risk are believed to have had strong effects on world‐wide exchange rates. This paper aims to analyse these dynamics empirically. We estimate a Global VAR (GVAR) model for nine EMU countries plus Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States and identify structural risk shocks using sign restrictions. Our results indicate that spillover effects of general risk are much stronger than those of bailouts. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the Euro depreciates significantly against the Yen and U.S. dollar following general risk shocks in the euro area and only to a small extent following bailout shocks. The Pound Sterling is not affected by any of these shocks. The Euro variability is, from the EMU perspective, mainly driven by shocks stemming from large countries (e.g., Germany, France, and Italy). However, shocks from third countries also play an important role.

Global financial crisis and multiscale systematic risk: Evidence from selected European stock markets

Abstract: In this paper, we have investigated the impact of the global financial crisis on the multi-horizon nature of systematic risk and market risk using daily data of eight major European equity markets over the period of 2005-2018. The method is based on a wavelet multiscale approach within the framework of a capital asset pricing model. Empirical results demonstrate that beta coefficients have a multiscale tendency and betas tend to increase at higher scales (lower frequencies). In addition, the size of betas and R2s tend to increase during the crisis period compared with the pre-crisis period. The multiscale nature of the betas is consistent with the fact that stock market investors have different time horizons due to different trading strategies. Our results based on scale dependent value-at-risk (VaR) suggest that market risk tends to be more concentrated at lower time scales (higher frequencies) of the data. Moreover, the scale-by-scale estimates of VaR have increased almost three fold for every market during the crisis period compared with the pre-crisis period. Finally, our approach allows for accurately forecasting time-dependent betas and VaR.

Central bank independence and inflation—Old story told anew

Abstract: © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 72 Abstract Central bank independence (CBI) and its link to inflation have become a part of conventional wisdom. However, the literature shows that there is a lack of a stable general pattern for the relation between CBI and inflation, even for relatively homogenous groups of countries. In this study, we use two indexes for CBI proposed in the literature. For the panel of 51 countries (24 advanced and 27 nonadvanced economies), we estimate two regression models—one with inflation as a dependent variable and another with inflation gap in this role. We use two estimation methods: the panel fixed effects model with serial autocorrelation in the error term and the Arellano‐Bond difference generalized method of moments estimator. In addition, we use disaggregated indices to check what aspects of independence are of highest importance. Our results suggest that CBI has a negative significant impact on inflation mostly by results for nonadvanced economies and that this relationship did not change during the recent crisis.