Showing papers in "International Studies Quarterly in 1970"

Mathematical Models of Instability and a Theory of Diffusion

Abstract: The purpose of this study is a systematic examination of Latin American and Sub-Saharan African coups both by descriptive and explanatory means. Two mathematical (probabilistic) models are suggested as descriptions of the occurrence of coups in these regions. The term model refers here to an abstract representation of reality and does not necessarily connote explanation in the form of stated or inferred causality.' As a means of explanation for the occurrence of certain of these coups, one of the models is used to develop a theory for the diffusion of instability. Mathematically, this theory arises from the need to introduce a greater correspondence between the probabilistic description and the reality it represents. The theory suggests a set of independent variables for the explanation of the diffusion of instability, and two of these variables-diplomatic status and * This paper is a revision of one presented at the 1967 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. Support for this study was provided by a research fellowship of the Council for Intersocietal Studies of Northwestern University. The comments and suggestions of Professor Raymond Tanter are gratefully acknowledged. 1 The term "model," broadly conceived, can be defined to mean a form of systematic explanation. However, when the model is solely intended as an isomorph of reality, as is the case in this study, then the model itself should not be understood as having explanatory purposes in a causal sense. For a detailed treatment of the various usages of this term see Abraham Kaplan, The Conduct of Inquiry: Methodology for Behavioral Science (San Francisco: Chandler, 1964), pp. 263-75.

Civil Strife and the Involvement of External Parties

Abstract: It seems generally accepted that the pattern of post-1945 international conflict is simple in outline, if complex in detail. Dominating everything is the twenty-year confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States. At times, this confrontation has been at a low level of intensity. At others, actual violence has broken out along the boundaries drawn across the international system by the two sides, and the Cold War has become an actual shooting war, restrained from becoming an all-out conflict since the mid-1950s by the fear of mutual annihilation through the use of nuclear weapons. In spite of fluctuations of detail and intensity, this has been a dominant theme in postwar conflict, and it is difficult to disagree with the somewhat gloomy article with which the 'Times' ushered in the 1969 New Year, and its comment that ". . . The world situation still pivots on the nuclear confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. There is scarcely a single situation that is not influenced by it, or a single event that does not impinge on it . . ."' This paper argues that the pervasiveness of the Cold War and

Role Theory and International Relations: A Commentary and Extension

Abstract: Professor Holsti has provided an example of the application of role theory to the relations between nations. In this paper an attempt will be made to extend his analysis and further examine the question of whether role theory may be of use in the field of international relations. The sources of theoretical insights in science are various but one frequent source is the theory of another field. History provides some instances in which borrowing has been highly successful, such as when Darwin borrowed from Malthus. There have been instances, however, where borrowing has been less successful. The concept of group mind failed to illuminate our understanding of the group and the idea of physical fields of force, while emphasizing the notion of multiple causation, has not been notably successful when applied to the group. There are many who are particularly dubious whether theory developed at one level can be fruitfully applied to problems at another. Thus many have questioned whether theories at the

Ideology, Interests, and Foreign Policy

Abstract: Reasons for violent conflicts between states probably change with changes in the international system. For each system reflects and influences the values of its member states, and conflict within the system results from the incompatibility of those particular values. The crucial characteristic of the nation-state system is the insistence of every state to exist in sovereign equality. From this resolve national interests arise, either objectively or claimed by governments, influencing the behavior of states far more powerfully than other social interests or any other factors, ideology among them. Throughout the era of the nation-state system there has never been any doubt about the predominance of these interests. The argument for national interests as the prime mover has therefore been constant. It mirrors the enduring determination of peoples to have their state survive as an independent political entity. In contrast, the argument for ideology as a significant influence upon state behavior has been intermittent and popular when established values were challenged, as they were during revolutionary periods

The Common Market and Political Federation in Western European Public Opinion

Abstract: The opening paragraph of the Treaty Establishing the European Economic Community affirms the signatories' determination to "establish the foundations of an ever closer union among the European peoples."' Prominent "Europeans" among the treaty's draftsmen saw the EEC as a stepping stone to regional political amalgamation. Many expected that the successful operation of the Common Market would generate support for political federation among groups that initially preferred to limit international merger to the economic sector, as well as among groups that initially opposed all aspects of regional unity. Analysis in this study is directed toward determining whether, and to what extent, these expectations of the "Europeans" were realized after the EEC was transformed from a design "on paper" into a functioning international organization. As will be shown, the major finding of this study is that popular enthusiasm for the Common Market in France, West Germany and Italy was not generalized into support for political federation on the Continent. During the period under investigation here, Frenchmen,

Global War, Limited War and Peace: Hypotheses from Three Experimental Worlds

Abstract: A number of recent articles on aspects of internation simulation have claimed that a major justification of simulation experiments is their fruitfulness for hypothesis formation and theory construction. Thus, one of the major ways in which simulation may contribute to substantive knowledge of large-scale political, and particularly, international systems, is by way of its heuristic value in suggesting hypothesized relationships which may hold both for the political reference system and the constructed laboratory social system. To paraphrase Hermann': if x is observed to bear a given relationship

On the Inadequacies of Non-Philosophical Political Science: A Critical Analysis of Decision-Making Theory

Abstract: This paper will attempt to analyze an approach to the study of intemational relations in an unorthodox and, perhaps, unfair manner. I have succumbed to the temptation of this type of analysis primarily because of the self-imposed intellectual isolation which seems to exist among political scientists and their colleagues in the other social sciences. These individuals develop and elaborate extremely complex heuristic models which use carefully thought-out concepts and intricate terminology. They are concerned with expounding an internally consistent theory by maximizing technical efficiency in both their thoughts and presentation. The result, at first glance, is a structured analysis consisting of computer-produced language and unarguable conclusions seemingly based on objective calculations of existing phenomena. It is boring to read and difficult to comprehend. Yet, as social scientists, we acclimate ourselves to the rigid environment and eventually begin to assimilate the language and ideas into our own intellectual baggage. This process seems to perpetuate itself until an interest develops

An Analysis of the Guerrilla Insurgency and Coup D'État as Techniques of Indirect Aggression

Abstract: There is a critical relationship between the major forms of domestic political violence common to developing nations and techniques of indirect aggression-the increasingly important vehicle of Cold War great power conflict in the so-called "third world." As a means of analyzing this relationship, both the domestic and international politics of the developing areas will be considered as varieties of the general phenomenon of political violence. Using political violence as a common schematic frame of reference, it is interesting to note that we discover a convergence of domestic and international politics, which have traditionally been identified in political science literature as two fairly distinct spheres, into what appears to be a single model of politics. In the classical breakdown of political science into the areas of comparative government and international relations, we find a basic difference in the way in which violence is related to the political process. In the analysis of domestic politics, great stress is laid on the alleged monopoly of coercive force centered at the governmental level.' On the other hand, in the analysis of the international

Encapsulated Integrative Patterns vs. Spillover: The Cases of Agricultural and Transport Integration in the European Economic Community

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine developments in t-he agricultural and transport sectors of the European Economic Community (EEC) against the backdrop of Functionalist theory.' Specifically, I will address myself to the concept of spill-over as a mechanism for bringing about integration. It will be convenient to proceed in the following manner: First, I will speak in general terms of the treatment of spillover in the Functionalist literature; second, I will pay some attention to the development of integration in the transport and agricultural sectors of the EEC with an eye toward discerning how events here can aid us in generating testable propositions; third, I will evaluate my notion of spillover in light of the case material; and fourth, I hope to test several propositions derived from my understanding of the case material.

The State System Exercise: A Teaching Note

Abstract: In recent years, educational games have become an important educational tool in the social sciences.The Inter-Nation Simulation, a number of games in the field of American government, and Simulated Society (SIMSOC) in the more general field of sociology have been employed at a number of universities and colleges.2 The teaching game or what I prefer to call simulation exercise presented below has proven to be a valuable educational tool in introductory international politics courses, but unlike the exercises mentioned above does not require extensive or elaborate materials. Involving a comparatively small amount of extra effort from the instructor, the exercise occupies about five hours of classroom time and can be used to stimulate and focus discussion on various aspects of international politics." Because the entire set of materials

Neutralism in Laos and Cambodia

Abstract: In the early morning hours of March 18, 1970, radio broadcasts emanating from Phnom Penh, Cambodia, proclaimed the ouster of Prince Norodom Sihanouk, the forty-seven year old Chief-of-State and former king. He had been deposed in a bloodless coup d'etat by pro-western forces led by the fifty-six year old Premier and Defense Minister, General Lon Nol, and supported by the Deputy Premier and the President of the National Assembly. The apparent catalyst for the coup was the presence in Cambodia of an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 Communist North Vietnamese (Viet Minh) troops plus the stagnation of Cambodia's economy and corruption among certain government officials.' The coup was a surprise to American journalists, politicians, and scholars,2 and most expected a rapid reclamation of power by the Prince. If not, many commentators were concerned over the ramifications of the coup on Cambodia's "neutralist" foreign policy which had been so adroitly practiced by Prince Sihanouk for over fifteen years. It was feared that without Sihanouk, Cambodia would become embroiled in the Vietnamese conflict.3 Preceding the coup in Cambodia, Washington officials were reexamining the American commitment to Laos and debating the

International Law-in-Action and the Numbers Game: A Comment

Abstract: In his recent contribution to this Quarterly, Professor Irvin L. White finds in progress a significant and wholly desirable change in the tenor of international legal studies.' The traditional focus on the form and content of the law is giving way to a concern for the processes of law formation and application; "law-in-books" yields to "law-in-action." The principal figures in the law-in-action movement-Myres S. McDougal, Richard A. Falk, and Edward McWhinney-reflect an American milieu,2 and White associates the movement with the rise of behaviorialism in American political science. As in political science, the changing study of international law is marked by the appearance of "new approaches, methods, and techniques . . . ," including quantitative techniques.3 Actually, the profound influence of quantification in political science has barely