Showing papers in "International Studies Quarterly in 1976"

The Substance and Study of Borders in International Relations Research

Abstract: While international borders are important in understanding the “shape” of the international system and are part of those structural characteristics which affect the interaction opportunities of nations, little attention has been paid to their conceptualization, operationalization, and measurement. This paper undertakes four tasks to help fill this gap. The first is to indicate the potentially theoretical role that borders may play in international relations, discussing the relationships between distance/contiguity and interaction opportunities. The second task entails the conceptualization and measurement of international borders. The third task involves using the data derived from this framework to describe the international system in terms of borders for the period 1946‐1965. The fourth task is to indicate the utility of a border data set by addressing questions which have been posed in the international relations literature. Research results are presented for several questions concerning the relationships between borders and war, borders and alliances, and the diffusion of war.

Satellization and Stagnation in Latin America

Abstract: The present low level of socioeconomic development in Latin America is a deplorable, if well-established, fact. Yet, what are the causal conditions which can explain the developmental change (growth, stagnation, deterioration) in this region? A number of sociologists and economists, many Latin American, seek an explanation in the structured yet asymmetric economic exchanges between developed and underdeveloped countries. Two principal structures of asymmetric exchange are the “international division of labor” and the “international feudal structure.” At least three actors in the international system appear to be responsible for maintaining these exchange structures: institutions of aid, multinational corporations, and clientele classes in underdeveloped countries. If these explanations are tenable, a nation's rate of developmental change should vary with its position in the two exchange structures. Statistical tests involving 18 Latin American nations in the 1960s lend systematic evidence in support of this “satellization produces stagnation” thesis.

A Global Monitoring System: Appraising the Effects of Government on Human Dignity

Abstract: Policy scientists can contribute to the democratic shaping and sharing of values by promoting and participating in a global monitoring system. Such a system would be designed to appraise policy formulation and execution by major governmental actors on a worldwide basis. The proposed system would be a private, transnational organization (or series of competing organizations) consisting of policy scientists from throughout the world who would use standardized indicators to monitor governmental actions and their impacts on professed official goals and on the attainment and distribution of basic human values. Taken collectively these basic values can be summated as human dignity. Key to the mission of the global monitoring system is its cybernetic nature, i.e., it is continuous, open, visible, and self-correcting. Appraisal is the assessment of institutional performance in terms of policy processes and actual outcomes as compared to avowed goals and the fundamental values associated with human dignity. Appraisal also involves attribution of the responsibility for these policy results. In performing its appraisal mission, the global monitoring system would undertake systematic projections of the probable consequences of current trends in policy. The results of such a continuous monitoring system would be disseminated at periodic intervals to the civic and public orders throughout the world.

Statistical Findings in International PoliticsA Data-Based Assessment

Abstract: This paper reviews all the correlational-explanatory quantitative research on international politics published in articles prior to 1970. Using content analysis and a Predictive Power Index it assesses 7,678 findings. The relative potency of different types of independent variables is delineated, the success of research in explaining different topics is examined, and an inventory of scientific findings is presented in propositional format.

Interactions and Perceptions in the Test Ban Negotiations

Abstract: The Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963 represented the first major breakthrough in postwar arms control negotiations, and thus in some ways laid the foundation for a series of subsequent agreements (especially among the nuclear powers), which have become the primary concrete representations of the present superpower detente. Although many of these agreements may have had little substantive effect upon the arms race, they have at least been affected by and exerted a subsequent impact upon political relations between the communist bloc nations and those of the Western bloc. This article reports on an analysis of the negotiations among the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom leading up to this test ban treaty. Specifically, it applies the two-step mediated stimulus-response model (S—r:s—R) to analyze these negotiations. This model predicts that negotiators' perceptions will be influenced by the behavior of other nations toward their country both outside and inside the negotiating forum, that these perceptions will then be converted into plans about their responses, and finally that these plans will become actualized in overt responses toward other nations, both within and outside negotiations. Several conclusions were reached. First, the perceptual variables generally had little significant impact in mediating between stimuli and responses, although they did appear to exert some influence in the case of Great Britain; in the other cases there was little congruence between changes in perceptions and in actual behaviors over time. Second, the behaviors of the three nuclear powers within the test ban negotiations were highly symmetrical over time; that is, each nation tended to change its responses roughly “in kind” with changes in the stimuli directed toward it from other actors both inside and outside negotiations. Third, there was substantial consistency between the interactions among actors inside and outside negotiations, suggesting that the negotiation process was in some ways a small-scale reflection of the general patterns of conflict and cooperation among the three nuclear powers in their overall interactions.

The External Consequences of Regional Integration for Pan-European RelationsInequality, Dependence, Polarization, and Symmetry

Abstract: Although there is a large literature on regional integration, very little of it focuses on its external consequences. During the early years of the development of the European Economic Community (EEC) the attention of scholars focused on the internal problems and consequences of integration. This paper explores some of the external consequences of integration, particularly inequality, dependence, polarization, and symmetry. Since these terms have no generally accepted meaning, a substantial portion of the paper tries to develop these concepts and devise measurement expressions for them. A description of the European system is then provided in terms of these four variables, and an initial effort is made to provide an explanation for changes in the structure of the European system as a consequence of regional integration.

From War to War to War

Abstract: In this article two simple Richardson-type arms race models are applied to the military build-ups of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Israel. Time-series data on major weapon system inventories and capabilities of these nations and on their military manpower were collected for this study, and measurement procedures are discussed briefly. The periods from 1956 to 1967 and from 1967 to 1973 are analyzed separately to detect changes of reaction patterns from one arms race to the other. Ordinary and generalized least squares regression are used as estimation techniques. Empirical findings are compared across arms races, nations, armed services, weapon systems, models, and indicators. Many reaction patterns which initially look significant are wiped out if autocorrelation of residuals is taken into account by generalized least squares regression. Thus, the first period is shown to be more of a mutual arms “race,” whereas in the second period only Israel is seen as reacting to Arab inventories, capabilities, and manpower. The only exception is an Israeli-Syrian missile-boat race between 1967 and 1973. Generally it can be concluded that by disaggregating overall military postures into individual services for which multiple indicators are available, it is possible for arms race research to identify reaction processes which not only would have gone unnoticed in aggregate data but also come closer to real-world decision processes.

The Anticipation of International Crises: Prospects for Theory and Research

Abstract: : The changing definition of international crisis is noted and related to the three major series of crises in the twentieth century. The rapid adaptation and institutionalization of American foreign and defense policy machinery to fit the crisis conditions of the Cold War era are traced in order to indicate the nature of the dislocation that began to occur in a 'transition period' after 1964. The need to restructure and reinstitutionalize concepts and practices in the American foreign affairs establishment according to the requirements of the ongoing transformation of the international system is interpreted with special reference to conceptual reorientations toward crisis phenomena. Fresh opportunities to advance crisis studies in both theory and research under a closer cooperative relationship between the academic and policy communities are outlined.

Intermediary Power and Global DependencyThe Case of South Africa

Abstract: Utilizing data on South Africa, the author seeks to demonstrate the ambiguities and policy alternatives confronting intermediary states in the context of global politics and economics. A dependency model of international relations between industrial states and the less-developed countries is sketched. This model is founded on the linkage between the distribution of power and wealth internationally and similar distributions within states. Hence, the product is a core-periphery model that takes further note of center-fringe relationships in intrastate and interstate terms. But within the total picture are intermediary actors that serve as agents of the Core states at the same time that they seek to inflate their own influence within the system. Such an intermediary status could, conceivably, provide a center of a periphery state with the maneuverability to assert its power regionally and potentially to challenge a weakened Core state. Settler-colonial regimes, for reasons discussed herein, are inclined to search out interstices in the total system. Finally, the foreign policy behavior of the center forces in South Africa are analyzed in these terms. It is concluded that by conscious governmental policy, a symbiotic and competitive relationship between South Africa and the capitalist Core states has evolved that is transitional in character and eventually difficult to analyze in terms of who dominates whom. This, in itself, is confirmation of the existence of an important intermediary status in dependency relationships.

Global Dominance and Dependence, Post-Industrialism, and International Relations TheoryA Review

Abstract: This review analyzes four premises of state-centric theories of international relations and contrasts them with two new global phenomena: dominance and dependency and post-industrialism. The two phenomena, it is claimed, are leading international politics in the direction of what some theorists call a global dominance system. The global future portrayed is wholistic, transnational, hierarchical, controlled via technocratic mechanisms, and culturally homogeneous. Such a view is diametrically opposed to state-centric, atomistic, decentralized, heterogeneous conceptions of international life prevalent in the literature of international relations. The challenge that new theory and data provide suggests the need for international relations scholars to abandon state-centric premises and to define their research in terms of the questions raised by the newer theorists discussed.

Human Rights Without Distinction as to Language

Abstract: The charter of the United Nations requires members to promote human rights without discrimination based on language, raising questions about the meaning of discrimination and about relevant policies and practices around the world. The UN itself chooses official and working languages. Governments choose the language(s) to be employed in their internal operations, in their relationships with the public, and in education. The choices necessarily differentiate, conferring benefits on some and imposing burdens on others. The general rule is that differentiation is nondiscriminatory when the grounds for it are sufficient, which means that judgment is necessary based on a weighing of costs and gains. The costs and gains are not only those of individuals but also those of groups, and the fixing of criteria for identifying the language groups that have legitimate claims is a significant pending problem.

Toward an Exploration of Comparative Foreign Policy Distance Between the United States and Latin America

Abstract: A concept of foreign policy distance is introduced and operationalized through an index based on indicators of imports, diplomatic contacts, UN voting, verbal conflict, and conflict behavior. The index is validated by testing its sensitivity to eight well-known cases of foreign policy distance involving the United States and Latin America. Utilizing the index, the authors identify 45 significant changes in distance in United States/Latin American relations for the period 1953–1970, and classify them by U.S. presidential administration. After speculating about events which are chronologically associated with these changes, the authors argue that the next step is to operationalize competing paradigms in international politics, and using distance change as the dependent variable, to systematically compare and evaluate then-relative potency in accounting for such changes.

Structural Characteristics of International Influence Relationships

Abstract: This study replicates Steven J. Brams's previous empirical investigation of influence relationships between pairs of nations in the international system. Brams's diagraph model is applied to international visit data (between heads-of-state and governmental officials) for the 1966–1967 period, thereby extending for two years the time frame originally investigated. As a verification test of the stability, generalizability, and reliability of Brams's original findings, the replication confirms many of Brams's empirically derived generalizations about the hierarchical structure of influence relationships in the international system. Principal among these is that the international system is highly stratified and that influence tends to be pyramidally concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group of major nations. The replication study also provides evidence about temporal variation in the structure of influence relationships, including, for example, the discovery that Soviet influence relationships underwent a marked deterioration in the observation period, while U.S. relationships manifested relative stability, thereby providing additional hypotheses about the structure of internation influence.

Public-Good Theory and Bargaining Between Large and Small Countries

Abstract: Olson's theory of exploitation in public-good situations says that large countries are exploited by small ones with regard to the cost-benefit ratio of public goods. The policy implication of this theory is that small countries need not cooperate with large ones about the provision of public goods. With regard to groups that are formed to increase the supply of public goods, the larger the size of the group, the more it will fall short of providing optimal amounts of public goods. This theory has been applied to international organization and supposedly explains why small groups are more successful than large ones in providing themselves with public goods. However, the analysis here shows that large and small countries may exploit one another. This is shown by concentrating on the reaction process in public-good theory, a concept that permits testing of the exploitation thesis. The results demonstrate that mutual exploitation may lead to economic cooperation between large and small countries about public-good supplies. Economic cooperation requires the presence of several public goods; therefore, an organization's success in providing public goods may not necessarily be a function of group size. Instead, success may be a function of the number of public goods the organization supplies.

Problems of the Inadmissibility of Nuclear Conflict

Abstract: As is well known, military force has traditionally been seen in the United States as the principal instrument of foreign policy. In its most strident form, this tradition found expression in the conduct of politics from "positions of strength," the core of which consisted of calculations that the solution of almost any foreign policy problem could be achieved with the aid of military force-either through the threat of its use or, when necessary, by its direct utilization. However, with the demise of American hopes of maintaining a monopoly of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, the general changes in the world correlation of forces, and the ceaseless improvement and accumulation of nuclear weapons, many American scholars and political figures began to think about the moral soundness, the wisdom, and the practicality of such an approach to military force and its utilization in foreign policy. The destructive character of the principal element of military force-nuclear weapons-the utilization of which has become fraught with great potential danger for the United States itself, was considered in this reevaluation. These attitudes were strengthened even more when the United States was forced to recognize the existence of approximate equality of nuclear and strategic capabilities on the

Capabilities, Perceptions, and Risks: A Bayesian Model of International Behavior

Abstract: As the ease of computer analysis makes inductive research in international relations more attractive, there is likely to be an increase in the number of competing hypotheses in the literature. Since this can impede the task of theory building, the author suggests the use of a formal model which can provide the flexibility and precision necessary for the manipulation of variables that inductive methods are unable to achieve. To illustrate this, a Bayesian model of decision-making is formulated to reconceptualize a research problem regarding the role of uncertainty in the occurrence of war presented in an article by Singer et al. By introducing the concept of subjective probabilities, the model shows that uncertainty is not only a factor that can affect a nation's choice of an alternative, but that it can also be created and used by a country to mask its true intentions to achieve its goals.

Some Correlates of Attitudes to Multilateral Diplomacy in the U.S. Department of State

Abstract: The data presented in this article provide evidence that the foreign policy attitudes of Foreign Service Officers in the U.S. Department of State are shaped more by the demands of their immediate work milieux than by their individual social backgrounds or by the larger attributes of the organization as a whole. The attitude data are drawn from face-to-face interviews conducted among upper- and mid-level career officers who were located in four separate organizational subunits of the department and pertain primarily to related aspects of the U.S. conduct of multilateral diplomacy. Generally, multilateralism is supported by individual officers who have cumulative diplomatic experiences with multilateral diplomatic tasks and/or by those officers who are presently located in departmental subunits charged with responsibility for coordinating the role and participation of the United States in multilateral diplomacy. The formation of foreign policy attitudes is conceptualized as a behavior-attitude relationship in that behavioral requirements are believed to influence attitudes so as to bring them into line with task demands. The article concludes that the department should be conceptualized as a diverse and pluralistic foreign policy agency having multiple diplomatic centers corresponding to its many organizational subunits.

United Nations General Assembly Resolutions as Expressions of Human Values

Abstract: In order to generate interest in the 1977 ISA Annual Convention, whose theme is "World-Wide Appraisal of Institutions: Towards Realizing Human Dignity," the June 1976 issue of International Studies Quarterly published an article by Richard C. Snyder, Charles F. Hermann, and Harold D. Lasswell entitled "A Global Monitoring System: Appraising the Effects of Government on Human Dignity." The authors envisaged that such a system would be designed to appraise policy formulation and execution by major governmental actors on a worldwide basis. In this context it may be of interest to review some of the resolutions adopted by the UN General Assembly' at its thirtieth session

The Political Socialization of Nations

Abstract: There are two polar forms of international reality. Hobbes, Machiavelli, and Rousseau sketched one version for us. It is a world in which the interests of nations are put ahead of the interests of the collectivity of states, in which power competition and rivalry dominate, in which each national actor-like Rousseau's hunter-would prefer to catch a hare and gratify his own hunger rather than cooperate in the more general social purpose of trapping a stag that could satisfy the wants of all, and in which the sum of national positions is either constant or zero (Rousseau, 1947). This is a world of conflict, a state of nature among nations where war is the typical outcome. Adam Smith, however, envisioned another kind of world. It is a system in which each nation, pursuing its own self-interest, rightly conceived, actually promotes the general interest. In the most extreme formulation of this view, each individual or state "'neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it.... He intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was not part of his intention" (Smith, 1946). There follows an international harmony of interests.

Toward a GMS “Archipelago”The Case of Oceans Policy

Abstract: Harold Lasswell has long been an advocate of the worldwide survey network as a means by which social scientists can improve the performance of policy makers while developing and practicing their own skills (see especially Lasswell, 1935: 154; 1948: 296; 1963: chs. 3, 4). Likewise, he has written persuasively on the need for "counterpart" institutions in the private or civic sector to conduct continuous appraisals of actions taken in the official or public sector (Lasswell, 1968, 1971: 66). The Snyder-Hermann-Lasswell proposal for a "Global Monitoring System" (GMS) represents something of a synthesis or expansion of these notions in the characteristically comprehensive manner of Lasswell's "policy science" approach.' Leaving aside the difficult methodological issues, I would like to suggest one area in which the general idea of a GMS makes eminently good sense and in which the institutional building-blocks for such a system are already visible-that of "oceans policy." Clearly, a GMS implies some topical division of labor corresponding to the geographical, functional, or value foci of existing institutions, both public and private. A number of factors have contributed to the consolidation of such a focus on policies related to the use and protection of the oceans and coastal areas.

Reinterpreting “Repredicting Voting Patterns in the General Assembly”

Abstract: Moore (1975) attempts a critique of two of my articles (Vincent, 1971, 1973) concerning voting patterns in the United Nations. In the main the critique reduces to: (1) Vincent generalized from one canonical correlation in each study to determine the overall theoretical importance of the factors of Economic Development, Democracy, and U.S. Relations in predicting UN voting, and (2) Vincent should have used multiple regression instead of canonical correlation (which should not have been used on the data) and, had he done so, he would not have arrived at his conclusions concerning the relative importance of economic development as a predictor.'

For a Constructive Soviet-American Dialogue on Strategic Security

Abstract: The hope for increased security for both the United States and the Soviet Union, and their allies, through agreements limiting and eventually reducing both strategic and conventional armaments is a cornerstone of the current U.S. policy of detente with the Soviet Union. Obviously a wide array of factors affect the readiness of the Soviet Union and the United States to conclude such agreements as the SALT I and II arms limitation accords. These include political will, adequate technological means of national verification, and relative balance in overall strategic capabilities. While these elements will doubtless continue to influence arms control negotiations, a somewhat less well recognized, but yet increasingly significant influence on our mutual ability to substantially improve the security of our nations is the extent of awareness and comprehension of the strategic doctrines, concepts, and intentions of each side. While the Soviet Union and the United States have jointly undertaken commitments to avoid dangerous confrontations and to seek agreements based on "equal security," these goals are more likely to be attained over the long run if there is a

The Problem of Outcome Evaluation: A Comment on the Proposed Global Monitoring System

Abstract: Snyder et al. (1976: 258) conclude their recent article on the global monitoring system (GMS) by saying that, "The central question raised in this article is whether or not some form of global monitoring system is an idea whose time has come." As one input toward answering that question I will review some of the outstanding obstacles to the "outcome evaluation" required for achieving the first major function identified for the proposed system, "the appraisal of governmental performance" (Snyder et al., 1976: 244). The motivating questions for these remarks are, "do we as policy scientists really know enough to usefully tackle, head-on, such a massive problem as global appraisal of governmental actions?" and "what are the primary obstacles we will have to overcome if we do so?" The GMS article itself reflects a tension between the stated "spiral

Toward a Global Monitoring SystemSome Comments and Suggestions

Abstract: The recent Snyder, Hermann, and Lasswell (1976) paper proposing "A Global Monitoring System [for] Appraising the Effects of Government on Human Dignity" is a thought-provoking and, in many ways, timely effort. Thorough treatment of the many issues and subissues raised by it would be a lengthy process not possible here. Instead I will restrict my comments to an evaluation of what I believe to be a few of the most central issues and conclude with some suggestions based on this evaluation. The proposal raises three important and related issues. They are:

Monitoring the Effects of Governments on Human Dignity: Policy Evaluation in Communist Party States

Abstract: Upon returning from a recent trip to the People's Republic of China, a Western observer was asked to evaluate the impact of communism upon that particular society. Mao Tse-tung and the Chinese Communists, the observer noted, have restored dignity to Chinese society. They have made the people proud to be Chinese once again. Another Western observer of Chinese affairs has made a starkly different evaluation. In his words, communist governments in general and the Chinese regime in particular have done more to destroy the human dignity of their populations than any governments in modern political history. As I see it, the proposal (Snyder et al., 1976) to establish a Global Monitoring System (GMS) is an idea whose time has come. But while the GMS is likely to have many significant benefits, it is doubtful whether it will be able to resolve disagreements such as that noted above. In a world of ideological diversity, it will be difficult and perhaps impossible to gain universal agreement concerning the values and policies leading to the enhancement of human dignity. While a variety of different questions concerning the monitoring system can be raised, this essay explores the feasibility and advisability of attempting to use a universal set of values to represent human dignity and to employ them to evaluate political performance in Communist Party states. In order. to illustrate how specific appraisals might be made, the essay then considers the problems and prospects of assessing performance in respect to the value of industrial democracy using the illustrative case of Yugoslavia.

Knowledge, Action, and the Pursuit of Global Happiness

Abstract: The recent proposal by Richard C. Snyder, Charles F. Hermann, and Harold D. Lasswell (1976) for the development and application of a global monitoring system (GMS) for the realization of human dignity is unique in several very important respects. In the following few pages I will try to confine my comments to this uniqueness and suggest why I believe that the Snyder, Hermann, and Lasswell proposal is long overdue, although very much in the formative stage.

Comments on Snyder, Hermann, and Lasswell, "A Global Monitoring System"

Abstract: In response to the last sentence of the paper "A Global Monitoring System," I would agree with the authors that "some form of global monitoring system for governmental appraisal is an idea whose time has come" (Snyder et al., 1976: 260). There are already some precedents for this type of monitoring system, particularly in the health indicators published through the World Health Organization by the member governments. There are now considerable cross-national data on health services facilities and personnel, and we may be working toward a global monitoring system of health service performance. There is also emerging some work on cross-national social insurance and welfare performance in the context of the concept of the welfare state. I would caution against pushing the concept of "human dignity"; it undoubtedly means different things in different political systems. At the risk of exaggeration, in the United States we believe human dignity involves the freedom to achieve, while elsewhere human dignity might mean the opportunity to share and cooperate. It would seem possible to decide on a basic set of social and political indicators-such as

Toward a Global Monitoring System

Abstract: I applaud the proposal of Snyder, Hermann, and Lasswell (1976) for a global monitoring system. It seems to me that such a system is an essential component of a moral order for all mankind. We can, I think, create such a moral order by: (1) setting worldwide standards or goals for each element to be monitored; (2) applying trustworthy procedures to measure each element (it is convenient to call each specific monitoring system a meter); (3) making worldwide tests of theories of the ways in which reported meter values differ from the goals (any such discrepancy constitutes a problem, and the theories in question constitute theories of the cause or treatment of the problem); and (4) reporting results widely, in clear and simple language, so that intelligent and educated laymen can easily understand them. For the past five years, I have been reviewing such goals, meters, and theories of cause and cure of leading social problems. I plan to set forth my fin-dings in a three-volume work, The Human Situation. The first such volume, called The Moral Order, is scheduled for completion and private circulation, later in 1976, to any scholar who may be interested.