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Showing papers in "International Studies Quarterly in 1977"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a redefinition of crisis is offered which departs from the conventional view, notably in the emphasis on finite time instead of short time and in the addition of perceived high probability of war.
Abstract: A redefinition of crisis is offered which departs from the conventional view, notably in the emphasis on finite time instead of short time and in the addition of perceived “high probability of war.” A concept of intrawar crisis is introduced. Preliminary results of mapping crises from 1939 to 1975 are indicated, along with the selection procedures for 30 cases to be analyzed in depth (“vertical” research). Three boundary-free typologies are explicated: dimensions of crisis, attributes of crisis actor, and characteristics of crisis decisional unit. Building upon an earlier research framework, a model of crisis behavior and choice is specified, along with the methods to be utilized to produce comparable findings about 22 research questions focusing on threat, time, and probability of war. “Horizontal” research across the 450 cases will seek to discover meaningful patterns in the crisis behavior of states.

77 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical discussion of some of the problems facing intelligence communities and decision makers in their efforts to guard against a surprise attack is examined in the light of three "noise levels" (three environmental background noises), as well as in relation to the complexities involved in the mutual evaluation of intentions and capabilities of opposing sides.
Abstract: The first part of this paper is a theoretical discussion of some of the problems facing intelligence communities and decision makers in their efforts to guard against a surprise attack. These difficulties are examined in the light of three “noise levels” (three environmental background noises), as well as in relation to the complexities involved in the mutual evaluation of intentions and capabilities of opposing sides. The author's pessimistic conclusions regarding the possibilities of preventing a surprise attack are summarized by five intelligence paradoxes (or contradictions), three of which appear in the theoretical section and the other two in the case study of the Yom Kippur War. The second part of this article is a case study of the conditions and perceptions of Israeli decision makers which made surprise inevitable at the outbreak of the war. The conclusion is a summary of the lessons which, even if they cannot provide a foolproof guarantee against surprise, can dampen the effects of a surprise attack and supply decision makers with some guidelines for improving their alertness and readiness to face surprise.

51 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the design of an optimal supranational body is investigated from an economic perspective that weighs both transaction costs and benefits derived from the linkage of national entities, in particular, transaction costs in the form of decision-making, interdependency, and enforcement costs must be matched at the margin with transaction benefits, such as efficiency gains, scale economies, and enlarged communication possibilities if optimal tightness of the link is to be determined.
Abstract: The nature of transnational public goods with international ranges of benefit spillovers is shown to justify, in some instances, the operation of a supranational structure in order to foster allocative efficiency. The design of an “optimal” supranational body is investigated from an economic perspective that weighs both transaction costs and benefits that are derived from the linkage of national entities. In particular, transaction costs in the form of decision-making, interdependency, and enforcement costs must be matched at the margin with transaction benefits in the form of efficiency gains, scale economies, and enlarged communication possibilities if optimal tightness of the link is to be determined. Additionally, the optimality condition for a complex supranational system requiring multiple supranational linkages is depicted. The role of technology with respect to the nature of transnational public goods and the design of supranational formations is briefly analyzed.

37 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the actor's decision stairway is used to model the warning process in intelligence and crisis operations, whose primary elements are indicators, analysis, decision, and action.
Abstract: Since the warning process goes beyond the sphere of intelligence to impact on decision-making and action, warning and crisis operations have broader objectives than is often thought. The warning process–whose primary elements are indicators, analysis, decision, and action–is conceptualized in interaction terms and further specified using the notion of actor's decision stairways. An objective of any intelligence and warning system is to determine the opponent's position on the decision stairway toward action. Pearl Harbor and the Yom Kippur War illustrate the interaction of participant's decision stairways. Innovations in communications and conferencing techniques, designed to mitigate organizational problems in warning and crisis operations, are described. Suggestions are offered for improved use of probability statements by analysts.

34 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors empirically analyzes various hypothesized explanations of competitive arms processes and empirically test Richardson-type arms race models and several modifications thereof are empirically tested for the United States and the Soviet Union from 1948-1970.
Abstract: The long-range research (Guetzkow and Hollist, 1976) in which this piece is nested aims at bringing together and “adding-up” segments of knowledge regarding international affairs. The goal is to develop a series of increasingly comprehensive theories of international relations in the format of computer simulation. This paper empirically analyzes various hypothesized explanations of competitive arms processes. Richardson-type arms race models and several modifications thereof are empirically tested for the United States and the Soviet Union from 1948–1970. The findings suggest that the process of arms build-ups is not identical for the two countries. Of eight alternative explanations considered, one model more adequately explains increases in U.S. arms, while another model more adequately fits the case of the Soviet Union. These findings provide an empirical basis for a model of arms processes which will be incorporated into a comprehensive computer simulation composed of this and other empirically analyzed modules (theories) of processes ongoing in international affairs.

31 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors argued that the wider public can only be included in this linkage if transnational paradigms are carried one step further and people become aware of the international links of individuals, groups, and organizations in their own community.
Abstract: Although people are increasingly involved in international processes through economic and social activities of everyday life, even those who are active in domestic policy-making still tend to defer to foreign-policy “experts.” The evolution of scholarly paradigms is making it easier for nongovernmental actors to perceive their links to global processes. This paper argues that the wider public can only be included in this linkage if transnational paradigms are carried one step further and people become aware of the international links of individuals, groups, and organizations in their own community. This can enable people to develop their competence in foreign policy-making through participatory learning in their own community. It can also help them to perceive more clearly the alternative routes for participation in foreign policy-making, including governmental and nongovernmental organizations having a variety of territorial boundaries—local, state (province), national, and international.

24 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the transnational dimension plays a significant role in the realization of human dignity, and the criteria for assessing whether policies and institutional arrangements are consistent with human dignity must be universalistic, while remaining respectful of cultural and political differences.
Abstract: Human dignity refers to the status of individuals as ends in themselves rather than means to extraneous ends To be consistent with dignity, institutions must provide for their constituencies' identity and community—the two components of dignity These correspond roughly to individual freedom and social justice, which are seen as interdependent conditions of dignity Achievement, extension, and preservation of human dignity are to a large extent a transnational enterprise The paper addresses three issues in the realization of dignity in which the transnational dimension plays a significant role It proposes (1) that the conditions for realizing human dignity (which include international peace in addition to social justice and individual freedom) must be created through worldwide efforts, given our increasing global interdependence; (2) that the criteria for assessing whether policies and institutional arrangements are consistent with human dignity must be universalistic, while remaining respectful of cultural and political differences; and (3) that the social processes whereby human dignity is extended and protected are inherently dialectical, since they require both the fulfillment and the inhibition of nationalistic demands

24 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Tests indicate that the first-stage prototype crisis warning system would have contributed to predictions of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the Indo-Pakistani war and would enable analysts to track crisis and noncrisis events and conditions and to interact productively with a computer-based system.
Abstract: Research directed toward the development of user-oriented integrated crisis warning systems should incorporate quantitative military, political, and economic indicators for crisis warning; indicators of U.S. military, political and economic interests abroad; and a unified multi-method forecasting capability into an interactive computer base. Initial movement toward this goal has occurred in the development and testing of a first-stage prototype crisis warning system. Tests indicate that the prototype would have contributed to predictions of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the Indo-Pakistani war, and would enable analysts to track crisis and noncrisis events and conditions and to interact productively with a computer-based system. The second-stage prototype will continue to integrate, test, modify, and apply existing and ongoing research to the overall warning and management problem.

23 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The need to restructure and reinstitutionalize concepts and practices in the American foreign affairs establishment according to the requirements of the ongoing transformation of the international system is interpreted with special reference to conceptual reorientations toward crisis phenomena.
Abstract: The changing definition of international crisis is noted and related to the three major series of crises in the twentieth century. The rapid adaptation and institutionalization of American foreign and defense policy machinery to fit the crisis conditions of the Cold War era are traced in order to indicate the nature of the dislocation that began to occur in a “transition period” after 1964. The need to restructure and reinstitutionalize concepts and practices in the American foreign affairs establishment according to the requirements of the ongoing transformation of the international system is interpreted with special reference to conceptual reorientations toward crisis phenomena. Fresh opportunities to advance crisis studies in both theory and research under a closer cooperative relationship between the academic and policy communities are outlined.

23 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose the linking of two Lasswellian propositions; Maslow's hierarchy of needs; and the cybernetic concept of motivation as "felt gap" between an actor's perception of an existing state of affairs and a preferred state.
Abstract: This article distinguishes between scarcities resulting primarily from entropic processes and those which appear to be more immediate outcomes of social, economic, and political processes. The discussion then proposes the linking of two Lasswellian propositions; Maslow's hierarchy of needs; and the cybernetic concept of motivation as “felt gap” between an actor's perception of an existing state of affairs and a preferred state. In responding to gaps emerging from changes in physical and social environments, the actor is seen as tending to alter these environments and then adjusting future behaviors in order to cope with such changes as perceived. But whereas response choice tends to be influenced by each actor's perception of capabilities, of which perceived resource availabilities (or scarcities) are an element, response outcomes are likely to be constrained by the “real” capabilities (including resource availabilities) of the actors. Over time, responses involving changes in population and technology (knowledge and skills) contribute to changes in the resource availability and other variables.

19 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed the contract tasking and the project accomplishments and described procedures used to select 289 crises since 1946 for greater analysis and made heavy use of regression analysis in detailing these relationships.
Abstract: : Chapter 1 of this report reviews the contract tasking and the project accomplishments. Chapter 2 describes procedures used to select 289 crises since 1946 for greater analysis. Characteristics of the 289 are presented and a sample of 41 is selected for more intensive analysis in Chapter 3, where over 70 different kinds of crisis management problems are examined for the 41 crises. Chapter 4 examines the relationships among the different types of problems based on the results of canonical correctional analysis. Chapter 5 examines the relationships between the environment in which the crisis occurred, the characteristics of the crisis, and the crisis management problems that were observed. Heavy use of regression analysis is made in detailing these relationships. Finally, Chapter 6 discusses the potential uses of the findings for crisis management planning.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply an ensemble of research methods to study the crisis perceptions and behavior of the People's Republic of China, and the results suggest two important desiderata with regard to analysis for improving crisis forecasting and management.
Abstract: In this paper, we apply an ensemble of research methods to study the crisis perceptions and behavior of the People's Republic of China. The results suggest two important desiderata with regard to analysis for improving crisis forecasting and management. First, we should not automatically assume that decision-makers in different countries share homogeneous views about the origin and development of crises and about appropriate measures for resolving them. Thus, effective crisis forecasting and management requires a sound understanding of one's potential allies and adversaries. Second, a multimethod research strategy is more likely to generate rich and reliable policy-relevant findings. This is especially true in the analysis of national decision systems with restricted information access, as in the case of China.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine Snyder's and Allison's frameworks in terms of three interrelated categories: (a) their general conceptions of decision makers and decision-making, (b) their research strategies, and (c) the classification systems with which they propose to work.
Abstract: Although widely commended as a “path-breaking” and “sophisticated” contribution to the literature on how to study international relations, Allison's Essence of Decision is plagued by inconsistencies and contradictions not unlike those which mar the decisionmaking framework presented by Snyder and his associates almost twenty years earlier. These problems can be summarized usefully in terms of the proverbial tension between “scope” and “objectivity.” The aim of this paper is to illuminate these problems by examining Snyder's and Allison's frameworks in terms of three interrelated categories: (a) their general conceptions of decision makers and decision-making, (b) their research strategies, and (c) the classification systems with which they propose to work.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the most practical strategy for coping with environmental problems may lie somewhere between the extremes of lifeboat ethics and one-worldism, and the implications of a logical extension of Hardin's policies to include trade as well as aid, and nonrenewable resources and food are explored to assess the practicality of enforced self reliance as an approach to resource management.
Abstract: Biologist Garrett Hardin is well known for his writings on the social dimensions of environmental problems. His widely read essay on “the tragedy of the commons” has become a reference point for formulating and evaluating environmental policies. More recently his advocacy of “lifeboat ethics,” which concludes that food assistance should be denied less-developed countries in the interest of limiting population, has evoked considerable controversy. Hardin's theories are first described, then critically analyzed. Questions pertaining to the definition of carrying capacity and the factors that impact on population growth trends are asked in identifying more humane alternatives to lifeboat ethics. The implications of a logical extension of his policies to include trade as well as aid, and nonrenewable resources as well as food are explored to assess the practicality of enforced self-reliance as an approach to resource management. International economic interdependence and the vulnerability of industrialized societies to terrorism and sabotage are also cited as reasons why the destiny of the poor and hungry of the world cannot be ignored by the rich. A “one-world” approach to global environmental policy is presented as a polar opposite to lifeboat ethics. The most practical strategy for coping with environmental problems may lie somewhere between the extremes of lifeboat ethics and one-worldism.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors point out that the production of inadvertent consequences on the present scale makes management and guidance of the international system increasingly difficult, and the system may therefore be moving into an entropic or disorder crisis.
Abstract: The growth of interaction and complexity represents a long-term trend in the international system and is a potent source of system consequences. As the amount of interaction increases, so does the number of difficult system problems, the number of requisites that must be satisfied if the system is to keep functioning, and, therefore, the fragility of the system itself. As interaction and complexity increase, so, too, does the production of inadvertent consequences, which result from both purposeful actions and apurposive processes. The production of inadvertent consequences on the present scale makes management and guidance of the international system increasingly difficult, and the system may therefore be said to be moving into an entropic or disorder crisis. The analysis points toward improving management capacity to the extent possible and toward slowing the rate of growth of interaction.

Journal ArticleDOI
Jack D. Salmon1
TL;DR: In the view of the technological optimist, scarcity is a "normal" reaction which results from faulty social policy and inadequate RD its social and political impact would be extensive and must be assessed as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Given the fact that modern political societies assume the necessity of economic growth, solutions must then be found for the resulting problem of scarcity. In the view of the technological optimist, scarcity is a "normal" reaction which results from faulty social policy and inadequate RD its social and political impact would be extensive and must be assessed.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A grasp of crisis forecasting requires a working knowledge of international crisis research, including conceptual and operational definitions of crisis, crisis escalation, perceptions and behavior during crises, crisis decision-making, crisis management, and specific case studies of individual crises.
Abstract: A grasp of crisis forecasting requires a working knowledge of (1) international crisis research–including conceptual and operational definitions of “crisis,” crisis escalation, perceptions and behavior during crises, crisis decision-making, crisis management, and specific case studies of individual crises; and (2) general forecasting—necessitating analyses of epistemological questions concerning forecasting, of forecasting methods both objective and subjective, and application of specific methods to problems in international relations. Crisis forecasting research itself is best broken down into the forecasting of levels of conflict, of war and violence, and of crises per se. After examining each area, the author argues that a great deal of research has been completed and that the prospects are excellent for future crisis, forecasting, and crisis forecasting research of a much more varied and comprehensive nature.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test an hypothesis central to comparative politics and, increasingly, to the study of communist systems, namely, that political change covaries with socioeconomic changes often called "development" and "modernization".
Abstract: In this article, the author tests an hypothesis central to comparative politics and, increasingly, to the study of communist systems—namely, that political change covaries with socioeconomic changes often called “development” and “modernization.” Nine European communist states are ranked according to their socioeconomic levels and rates of socioeconomic change on the basis of aggregate data for a 20-year period. Five political variables are then tested at an ordinal level for correlation with both socioeconomic measures. Minimal support is found for an hypothesis which would link socioeconomic and political change in communist Europe, although several bivariate relationships are found to be moderately strong (e.g., between the frequency of conflictual events and socioeconomic levels).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that under conditions of scarcity, modern systems dependent on high energy and resource throughputs will become increasingly conflict prone, leading to the exportation of violence, erratic decision-making, and a greater possibility of foreign penetration.
Abstract: The thesis of this article is that under conditions of scarcity, modern systems dependent on high energy and resource throughputs will become increasingly conflict prone. There are two separate scenarios in which conflict may occur. The first of these takes place under conditions of severe overshoot where adjustment time is short, the number of shortages high, the type of shortage essential, and the military capability of the state high. A second scenario can be constructed around a sequence of events in which overshoot and its causes remain unperceived and in which modern societies become unstable, leading to the exportation of violence, erratic decision-making, and a greater possibility of foreign penetration. The author concludes that peace in any future era of scarcity must be rooted in alternate domestic structures which are less energy and resource intensive.

Journal ArticleDOI
Robert A. Young1
TL;DR: A special issue on international crisis forecasting and management is published by as discussed by the authors, which is composed of articles that are representative of the la-test and best efforts in both communities, and does not contain articles devoted or in any way hostile to the development of theory for its own sake; indeed, it could not have been written but for the efforts of basic researchers.
Abstract: Scholars of international politics and foreign policy are often preoccupied with the development of empirical theory consisting of a set of interrelated propositions (confirmed hypotheses) about how, why, and when states in the international system are likely to act and interact. For the most part, those who seek this kind of theory are relatively unconcerned with the potential for actual application of their work. This is usually as much a function of available time and energy as it is of preference.. Others, however,. are concerned primarily with the policy implications of theoretical work and, in some cases, with the development of solutions to specific policy problems. Thiis special issue on international crisis forecasting and management is comprised of articles we believe to be representative of the la-test and best efforts in both communities.. It does. not contain articles devoted-or in any way hostile-to the development of theory for its own sake; indeed, it could not have been written but for the efforts of basic researchers. Nor is it prescriptive in nature. Instead, the issue seeks to present the international studies community with a set of papers designed to stimulate thought and discussion regarding the prospects for applied crisis forecasting and management and to apprise them of recent progress in this area along

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The United Nations Law of the Sea Conference (UNCLOS) has been a venue for ocean resource politics for decades as discussed by the authors, with a strong north-south ideological split pervading the negotiations and a recognition of the interdependence between north and south in resource exploitation.
Abstract: Technological development is allowing ocean resource exploitation to advance at an unprecedented scale and pace. Recent sessions of the United Nations Law of the Sea Conference (UNCLOS), however, have demonstrated that disputes over how ocean resources should be exploited, and on whose behalf, have accompanied this technological development. Ocean resource politics practiced at UNCLOS manifests four major themes common to resource politics in general: (1) a movement toward exercising greater control over NGOs; (2) a strong north-south ideological split pervading the negotiations; (3) the difficulties in aggregating interests around the north-south axis; (4) a recognition of the interdependence between north and south in resource exploitation. Efforts to promote a global management approach to the negotiations have been unsuccessful, since national leaders lack a common conceptual framework with which to assess ocean resource management.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an approach for conceptualizing and measuring international military commitments, and a composite indicator, already developed, is described; and ranked lists of military commitments of the United States and United Kingdom to 133 target nations are provided for the years 1968 to 1974.
Abstract: International military commitment relationships can act as channels through which foreign area threats and conflicts are spread to other members of the international system. The identification and description of the direction, relative intensity, and changing status of these relationships can help decision-makers prepare contingency forecasts, especially after combined with global threat and national capability analyses. This article presents one approach for conceptualizing and measuring international military commitments. A composite indicator, already developed, is described; and ranked lists of military commitments of the United States and United Kingdom to 133 target nations are provided for the years 1968 to 1974.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a retrospective examination of the short-term economic impact of the petroleum price increase on different groups of countries is made, and four variables that are expected to influence economic performance, as measured by changes in real GNP, are isolated and their impact on subsequent economic performance is tested by regression analysis.
Abstract: A retrospective examination is made of the short-term economic impact of the petroleum price increase on different groups of countries. Four variables that are expected to influence economic performance, as measured by changes in real GNP, are isolated and their impact on subsequent economic performance is tested by regression analysis. While the regression equations account for a very sizeable portion of the variance in subsequent economic performance, economic patterns after 1973 are found to be a result of many additional factors in a very complex international system.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the early stages of the Industrial Revolution, new technologies, abundant energy, and growing populations led to an expansion of the influence of industrial countries over much of the world as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The last quarter of the twentieth century marks a fundamental turning point in relations among nations. The history of the industrial era has been one of expansion and growth. In the early stages of the Industrial Revolution, new technologies, abundant energy, and growing populations led to an expansion of the influence of industrial countries over much of the world. Choucri and North (1975) have used the term "lateral pressures" to characterize this movement beyond national borders that occurs when existing national capabilities are insufficient to meet domestic rising demands. The lateral pressures resulting from rapid industrialization and growth created an international system in which only a few western countries at various times exerted control over most of the world's African, Asian, and Latin American populations. While the international politics of the Industrial Revolution have been the politics of global expansion and western domination, a postindustrial international politics may well be marked by a diminished influence of the world's presently industrialized countries as their former colonial possessions attempt to carve out a more important role for themselves in a new international system. Although the present transformation in international affairs is the result of many factors, one of the most important is perception of scarcity of basic resources on the part of key actors

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, practical norms for the relationship between rich and poor countries seem particularly necessary in an international system dominated by so many conflicting values and interests, and they are designed not only to facilitate current interactions, but also to set the whole context of rich-poor relations in a more beneficial long-term perspective.
Abstract: Some effort to articulate practical norms for the relationship between rich and poor countries seems particularly necessary in an international system dominated by so many conflicting values and interests. The norms are designed not only to facilitate current interactions (e.g., norms on participation and restraint), but also to set the whole context of rich-poor relations in a more beneficial long-term perspective (e.g., the norms on morality and justice). Other norms relate to the issues of nonintervention and leadership. Some attention is also given to the characteristics that might make the norms more attractive to governments and political leaders. Finally, an effort is also made to indicate briefly the relationship between improvements in the international system and improvements in domestic performance by the developing countries.