Showing papers in "International Studies Quarterly in 1978"

Alliances and Wars Revisited: A Research Note

Abstract: The basic hypothesis that is examined posits a relationship between the magnitude of alliance commitment and war in the international system. We begin by establishing a theoretical connection between alliance commitment and war. A discussion follows of methodological considerations relevant to the empirical examination of the basic hypothesis. We specify several alternative forms of the relationship between alliance commitment and war and empirically evaluate them. Variations of the regression model are used to examine annual data on the number of defense alliance commitments and interstate war dyads per nation in the international system between 1816 and 1965. No impressive statistical relationship between the variables is located once the underlying statistical assumptions are taken into account, and it is argued that the basic hypothesis should be tentatively rejected. We close with suggestions for future research.

Do Conflict Managers Matter?: An Empirical Assessment of Interstate Security Disputes and Resolution Efforts, 1945–1974

Abstract: Previous studies of conflict management efforts do not empirically describe the importance of such activities in terms of interstate conflict behavior in general. Some address only particular management techniques; others are concerned only with particular managers. None empirically characterizes management activities with respect to interstate conflict generally. This paper establishes the context for such earlier studies by examining management efforts—including measures of collective security, peaceful change, pacific settlement, peacekeeping, preventive diplomacy, mediation, and conciliation, both organizational and not—in light of a comprehensive survey of interstate security disputes. Empirical answers are sought to questions about the degree and type of “mattering” that such efforts have played with respect to interstate conflict behavior. Specifically, three questions are considered: the relevance of managers; their degree of influence, including which managers have been comparatively more influential; and the developmental potential shown by organizational management agents. This analysis finds that management efforts matter a great deal in terms of relevance, to a limited extent in terms of direct influence, and very little in terms of system development.

The Political Economy Literature on North-South RelationsAlternative Approaches and Empirical Evidence

Abstract: In the past ten years, the field of international political economy has experienced a rapid and controversial growth in interest among social scientists and statesmen. Much of this increase in interest can be attributed to the emergence of dependency theory to challenge traditional American paradigms in international and development studies. Thus, it appears to be an opportune time for interested scholars to embark upon a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the field. To that end, this essay represents an effort to compare and evaluate four major approaches to the study of international political economy in general, as well as the issue of inequality between and within nations in particular. The formal comparative research, which speaks to the issues raised in the theoretical discussion, is also reviewed.

Nuclear ProliferationThe Israeli Case

Abstract: Recent judgments on the likelihood and/or desirability of open nuclear weapons status for Israel tend to overstate the case. Application of prescriptive strategic analysis leads to the conclusion that the most plausible objectives of a nuclear weapons program, in Israel's case, are met by an ambiguous public posture, with the actual development of weapons capability highly dependent on technical problems often glossed over in the literature. Available empirical evidence is insufficient to confirm this conclusion positively, but it does create a presumption in its favor. The "lessons" of the Israeli case are that greater attention should be paid to conventional military balances that can still affect nuclear decisions, the ambiguities of "near-nuclear" status, and the problems of isolated "pariah" states in antiproliferation strategy.

The Psychophysiology of Elite Stress in Five International Crises

Abstract: This paper will report on a segment of a larger study which is designed to explore the usefulness of an electronic instrument in the analysis of international crisis communications. After discussing aspects of the crisis literature as it relates to individual behavior, the paper will suggest a model of stress and how the Psychological Stress Evaluator (PSE) can be employed in crisis communications research. The crisis speeches of U.S. presidents in five post-World War II crises will then be examined with the PSE. Patterns of physiological disturbance will be sought from this examination.

Dependency and Economic Growth in Latin America

Abstract: Several prior empirical analyses have revealed a negative relationship between dependency and the economic performance of developing nations. However, two recent articles focusing on Latin American states report apparently contradictory findings. Kaufman, Geller, and Chernotsky (1975) found that more dependent Latin American states grow more rapidly in terms of changes in GNP, while Alschuler (1976)—analyzing virtually the same states, but a shorter time period—found that more dependent states experience slower economic growth. A comparison of the data and the indices used in the two studies reveals that there are a number of possible explanations for the differences in these findings. Scatter plots of several relationships also show that both sets of findings may have been substantially affected by extreme “outliers.” Finally, the application of panel regression analysis to the different (but overlapping) time periods analyzed in the two previous studies uncovers similar relationships between dependency and economic growth in Latin America.

Is there an International System

Abstract: Discussion of two major concerns in international relations, the actors that serve as the elements of global politics and the appropriate base for international systems, leads to a new synthesis of the systems framework. An examination of those assumptions which are most useful for the analysis of global politics suggests a model of “multiple issue-based systems.” This model transcends the traditional emphasis on security issues as all-important and escapes restrictions imposed by a too rigid adherence to system / environment distinctions and levels of analysis. The multiple system model offered is based upon the variety of actors and issues in world politics. Implications of the interdependencies and linkages among actors, issues, and systems themselves are explored. Operational procedures are suggested which can be employed to identify and analyze issue-systems. This approach allows for the synthesis within a comprehensive framework of recent innovative treatments of international relations including bureaucratic politics, integration theory, issue analysis, linkage politics, and transnationalism.

European labor migration: consequences for the countries of worker origin.

Abstract: This is a critical reassessment of the effects of the institution of labor migration on the sending countries. It is argued that the present system of migrating labor from the less developed countries of the European periphery to the highly advanced industrial societies of Western and Northern Europe has failed to address systematically any of the conditions which give rise to pressures for emigration in the first place. Thus, labor emigration, operating in a virtual policy void, has merely functioned as a palliative—rather than as a reforming agent—of the labor supplying countries' structural deficiencies. This article outlines a set of policy initiatives aimed at the improvement of the situation—such as measures for redressing some of the structural causes of emigration, the development of a coherent manpower and development strategy which would utilize the skills and experiences of target returning emigrants, and policies designed to utilize repatriated capital in an intelligent manner.

Flexibility and Commitment in International Conflicts

Abstract: Flexibility and commitment in statecraft offer juxtaposed advantages and drawbacks, and the relative merits of these alternative stances have been an issue for several theorists of international politics. Yet the flexibility-commitment dilemma is seldom immediately relevant to the actual conduct of diplomacy in international conflicts. Statesmen tend to be inflexible. They cling to a particular policy through the conviction—often false—that the policy is appropriate for the international problem they face and/or through domestic pressures which forbid alternative policies. And statesmen also experience problems in realizing the theoretical benefits of commitment as a result of striving for objectives which are incompatible with the adversary's tolerances, experiencing difficulties in signaling commitments effectively, and/or facing conflicting preferences among their domestic colleagues. So from the statesman's position of “unapparent inflexibility,” the problems of achieving some flexibility within tightly constrained policies and signaling viable commitments effectively are both more pressing concerns than the relative merits of flexibility and commitment. And if academic research related to the flexibility-commitment issue is to be pertinent to the statesman, it must focus on this pair of issues.

Foreign Policy Decision-Making and the EnvironmentThe Claims of Snyder, Brecher, and the Sprouts

Abstract: Underlying the analyses of Snyder, Brecher, and the Sprouts is a common contention regarding the relationship between environmental influences and foreign policy decisions: that environmental factors influence foreign policy decisions neither invariably nor directly, but only insofar as they affect or are mediated through the perceptions and attitudes of relevant decision makers. With regard to this claim, this paper suggests that (1) the criticisms Zinnes has directed against the Sprouts' formulation of this thesis are irrelevant or unconvincing; (2) close examination of their respective arguments reveals certain significant differences between Snyder and Brecher on the one hand, and the Sprouts on the other; and (3) the relationship between environmental factors, decision makers' perceptions of these factors, and state decisions may be a good deal more complex than supposed either by Snyder or Brecher, or by the Sprouts, and that environmental factors may play a larger role in this relationship than they each suppose.

The United States and Diffusion of Power in the Security Council

Abstract: U.S. support for the United Nations, both public and private, has experienced a severe long-run decline. This is indicated by official statements about the United Nations, U.S. percentage contributions to UN programs, and polls of public and congressional opinion. Declining support has paralleled loss of U.S. influence in General Assembly voting and decreased U.S. enthusiasm for the body. Diffusion of power has also weakened the U.S. position in the Security Council. But, in contrast to the Assembly, the Security Council has maintained its image as a useful and valuable body because the much-maligned veto provides a control not available in the Assembly. The Security Council may even have improved its image in recent years because of its peacekeeping performance in the Middle East. Under these circumstances, the Security Council now serves the United States—as formerly it served-the Soviet Union—by providing an institutional foundation for maintaining a tolerable political position within the United Nations.

Independent Jamaica Faces the Outside WorldAttitudes of Elites After, Twelve Years of Nationhood

Abstract: A re-study of attitudes toward global alignments among 83 leaders in 1974, 12 years after political independence, is compared with a study completed just before independence in 1961–1962 in the new Caribbean state of Jamaica. A striking decline in favorable attitudes toward Jamaica's alignment with Western nations occurred, from 71% of the leaders in 1962 to 36% in 1974. New and volunteered preferences were for alignment with Third World countries or with any country as long as Jamaica's self-interest was served. The social characteristics and differential roles of leaders affected their attitudes toward foreign affairs at both times. Older, middling educated, white and Chinese, relatively wealthy, and economic or religious leaders as opposed to political, labor, or other leaders were most likely to prefer the West in 1974. Also, the values of leaders affected their foreign-policy attitudes; Reactionaries and Conservatives, Nonegalitarians, non-Nationalists, to some extent Anglo-European identified leaders, and Authoritarians as opposed to Full Democrats were most likely to prefer the West. A path model containing six causal variables explains 54% of the variance in foreign policy attitudes in 1962 and 43% in 1974.

Domestic Influences on Latin American Importation of U.S. Armaments

Abstract: Despite persistent concern over and criticism of U.S. policy toward the Latin American military, little systematic attention has been directed to possible explanatory factors in Latin American acquisitions of U.S. armaments. An empirical examination of several domestic influences (economic, political, and military related) indicates that the availability of economic resources is the primary factor associated with U.S. arms transfers to Latin America during the period 1961-1971. Political factors on the whole do not exert as much influence on arms acquisitions as might be expected, although political instability makes a sizable contribution to the explained variance when the other variables are controlled. Somewhat unexpectedly, military participation in government has no systematic effect on imports. Military-related variables (defense spending and troop size) have only a marginal effect on acquisitions. In sum, the countries of Latin America, in decisions concerning the importation of U.S. arms, seem to take into account political and military factors only after having first considered their level of economic capabilities and resources.

A Research Note on the Quarantine of Cuba October 1962

Abstract: Graham Allison's book Essence of Decision has been justly acclaimed by both proponents and critics of the bureaucratic politics approach. One of the most demanding requirements of this approach is the collection and processing of large amounts of data. Based on intuitive and empirical evidence, it appears that Allison's interpretation of the Navy's implementation of the blockade of Cuba during the missile crisis is factually incorrect, and the findings in this research note have several broader implications for analysts employing the bureaucratic politics framework.

A Formal Analysis of Some Issues in Balance of Power Theories

Abstract: Two general issues raised in discussions of balance of power theories are considered in this paper: the relationship between, on the one hand, the power ratio goals of nations and the size of the international system and, on the other hand, the system's “war propensity.” These relationships are explored through the application of differential game theory. A mathematical model is proposed in which nations are assumed to operate according to certain dynamics, and to have specified goals and certain information about the international system. The “war propensity” of the system is then defined in terms of dangerous power configurations, and the impact of power ratio goals and system size is considered. Several variations on the basic model are analyzed: (1) systems with or without coalitions, (2) different conceptualizations of the dangerous power distribution, and (3) systems containing different types of nations, to wit, major powers and minor powers.

Temporal Delineation of International Conflicts: Poisson Results from the Vietnam War, 1963–1965

Abstract: Research findings concerning the behavior of nations in international conflict situations can be significantly influenced by the specification of the temporal domain of these situations. Therefore, we need to undertake systematic efforts to identify the onset, duration, and phases of conflicts before we attempt to explain and predict national behavior. This study applies the Poisson probability method for monitoring and measuring overtime changes in the U.S. behavior during the early years of the Vietnam war, using event data derived from the People's Daily and the New York Times Index. The results of this analysis provide a useful basis for identifying the initiation and abatement of this conflict and for demarcating the various intervening stages in its development. They enable us to be more precise and confident in coping with these analytical issues than if we rely on our intuitive historical impressions alone.

Peace Research as an International Learning Process: A New Meta-Paradigm

Abstract: If peace is to be defined as an antithesis to peacelessness and structural violence, it follows that peace research must be pluralistic in its value orientation and in its paradigms, since each human group has the right to define what peace means to it and to choose its specific way to fight against peacelessness. Therefore, peace research must not remain universalistic and global-oriented. It must rather start with the values, problems, and strategies on the local (grass-roots) level and try to relate them, pointing out their interdependence and complementarity. Various paradigms developed or yet to be found must be combined so as to enable peace research to play this catalytic role. The present study analyzes various paradigms, from the grass-roots conscientization paradigm to the preferential modeling paradigm on the global level. The paradigms must be selected and related to each other according to a metaparadigm: a guiding principle according to which peace research organizes its paradigms. This principle should emphasize the fact that peace research is collective research, transdisciplinary and transacademic, linking values, theories, and actions on the local, national, regional, and international levels.

International Relations Studies in Poland: An Essay on Trends in Research and Theory

Abstract: International relations studies developed as a scientific discipline in Poland primarily after World War II. Major research institutions in this field are the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw, the Western Institute in Poznan, the Research Institute on Contemporary Capitalism in Warsaw, the Silesian Institute in Katowice, and several political science institutes at major Polish universities. International relations in Poland has been treated as a part of political science, but there seems to be a growing tendency to treat it as a separate and independent discipline. This article presents views of Polish scholars concerning the substantive and theoretical aspects of international relations. It also notes both the strengths and current shortcomings of Polish political science. Polish scholarship is noteworthy in the study of local government and in the analysis of political issues examined in sociological and legalistic terms. In the realm of international relations, regional or area studies, e.g., German studies, European security, all-European cooperation problems, American studies, and developing area studies are being productively investigated. However, the shortcomings of international relations studies in Poland include the areas of methodology, empirical studies, decision-making studies, and theoretical approaches and analyses. Although political science and international relations are still among the youngest scientific disciplines in Poland, in terms of number of research centers, publications, and pedagogy, the discipline can boast major achievements in Poland.

Motivational Bases of Foreign Policy Attitudes and BehaviorAn Empirical Analysis

Abstract: This study explores the relationship between different modes of attachment to one's country and attitudes toward foreign affairs. Rather than conceiving of national attachment in the narrow sense of emotional nationalism which characterizes a great deal of previous research, it employs the conceptual framework developed by Daniel Katz and Herbert Kelman to differentiate among various motivational orientations toward the nation-state. Four such orientations: the ideological, functional, normative, and symbolic are operationalized as variables in a survey on Danish attitudes on membership in the European Community and various other foreign policy issues. Motivational orientations are shown to be good predictors of foreign policy attitudes, particularly with respect to broad issues like international involvement and relations with the Third World. The main differences are found between ideological orientation on the one hand and the remaining orientations on the other. On some issues, the attitudes of symbolically oriented individuals also differ from what could be called the mainstream of functionally and normatively oriented persons. These patterns of motivational orientation differ markedly from those found in studies of Greek and American populations. However, they seem to support our assumption of a relationship between societal structures and levels of modernization on the one hand and motivational patterns on the other.

What Foreign Policy Makers Want From Foreign Policy Researchers

Abstract: In an effort to address the question of how scholarly research products can be made more relevant to foreign policy makers, the authors undertake a systematic analysis of government-sponsored external research on foreign affairs to determine the kinds of products in which practitioners are most interested. Beyond mapping the foreign affairs external research domain to determine the nature of the scholarly products sought by policy makers, the study compares the funding emphases of various agencies that have foreign affairs interests to see to what extent these emphases reflect different research orientations, as well as a distinctiveness of missions among the members of the foreign policy establishment. Two basic conclusions are drawn from the study. First, contrary to much conventional wisdom, the foreign policy establishment supports a substantial amount of research that is basic (as opposed to applied), global in scope (as opposed to regionally specific), international in disciplinary orientation (as opposed to national or cross-national), and temporally open-ended (as opposed to immediate). There is no indication from this study that scholarly research would be more supported and used by policy makers if it were more problem-specific. Second, one must be careful in generalizing about the research needs of foreign affairs practitioners insofar as there is considerable differentiation among agencies with respect to the nature of the scholarly products in which they are interested.

Bearing the Burden: A Model of Presidential Responsibility in Foreign Policy

Abstract: This paper suggests a research strategy for resolving two problems in the analysis of U.S. foreign policy. One is the question of when and to what degree presidents can control the foreign policy apparatus. The other is the issue of what types of foreign policy leadership presidents should exercise within the boundaries of their power. In short, we seek to show what the limits are to presidential responsibility for foreign policy. After outlining an invariable obligation to exercise the oversight function, our research strategy suggests that the presidential responsibility hinges on the nature of the international environment. It distinguishes the concepts of an international influence structure (i.e., the relative distribution of power) and an international role structure (i.e., the recurring expectations about behavior resulting from the degree of consensus or conflict among countries). Thus, the domestic powers and responsibilities of the president for a particular foreign policy issue depend on the influence and role structures. The prescriptions drawn from our analytic framework are illustrated by judging presidential performance in four policy episodes. They are the launching of the Marshall Plan, the history of the Multilateral Force initiative, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the conduct of the Vietnam war under Johnson.

Constraints on Foreign Policy Decision MakingStability and Flexibility in Three Crises

Abstract: Since the usual theoretical approaches to explain foreign policy decision-making—that is, to isolate a single explanatory factor—have proven less than satisfying, a different perspective is proposed here. Normally the explanation is framed in a “this factor causes that behavior” statement. The perspective offered is that decision makers are constrained by certain factors to a limited range of choice. The factors of stability and flexibility are used as the causes of constraints and applied to three illustrative crisis situations—World War I, the Korean War, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. The results of the application indicate that stability influences the range of options considered and that flexibility gives the location of the range on the behavior taxonomy. The intensity of flexibility appears to indicate the probable location within the range of the behavior to be selected. These results give support to the proposition of constrained decision-making.