Showing papers in "International Studies Quarterly in 1979"

Choosing Sides in Wars

Abstract: We present a rational-choice theory of how decision makers choose sides, or neutrality, in ongoing wars. The theory focuses on each nation's expected utility from the war's possible outcomes, and on each nation's utility for its available strategies. Once the decision-making calculus is specified, the theory is tested against more than two thousand national decisions to remain neutral or to join an ongoing war on one side or the other. The theory proves to have considerable explanatory power, with the results of the data analysis indicating that the basic decision-making calculus used to choose sides in wars has not changed substantially during the past century and a half, although there have been some adjustments upwards and downwards in the relative importance of particular elements in the calculus.

Public Goods, Property Rights, and Political Organizations

Abstract: This article explores the definition of public goods in order to highlight and examine the political issues central to public goods provision. The two defining properties of public goods, jointness in supply and nonexclusiveness, are discussed and shown to be logically interdependent. By distinguishing between nonexclusiveness and noncontrol over exclusion, the definition is recast to show the important role of property rights in public goods situations. Issues of optimality and fairness are discussed to clarify some of the confusion surrounding the problem of centralized provision. Finally, the concept of a quasi-public good (where exclusionary mechanisms are imposed on an erstwhile public good) is used to analyze the role of political organizations in public goods provision. The failure to deal adequately with public goods problems at the international level can be understood in terms of the weakness of political organizations at that level.

The October WarChanges in Cognitive Orientation, Toward the Middle East Conflict

Abstract: In this paper we will examine adjustments that foreign policy officials make in their thinking to accommodate new information. In 1971–1972 and again in 1974–1975 a sample of American foreign policy officials was interviewed about the Arab-Israeli conflict. Cognitive maps constructed from the interviews were used to simulate reactions of the policy officials to the October 1973 war. A comparison of simulations based on the pre-war and the post-war maps shows that there was almost no restructuring of beliefs. The conflict reinforced the views of some officials, while it led others to perceive certain concepts as having a negative rather than a positive effect on their values.

The Tokyo RoundParticularistic Interests and Prospects for Stability in the Global Trading System

Abstract: During the 1950s and 1960s the United States absorbed many of the costs of an open trading regime for its trading partners in Europe and Japan. However, as U.S. power has declined its leaders have become more concerned with specific national economic interests, making their behavior more similar to the behavior of policy makers in other states. This has led to a differentiated trading regime with some sectors characterized by greater liberality and others by more closure. The outcome of the Tokyo Round reflects this differentiation. The tariff reductions and the codes on civil aircraft, customs valuation, import licensing, and standards all contribute to a more open, nondiscriminatory, market-dominated regime. On the other hand, the treatment of agriculture, less-developed countries, and safeguards reinforces a discriminatory, government-dominated pattern of behavior and does little to increase trade. The codes dealing with subsidies and government procurement will probably increase trade but only at the cost of violating unconditional most favored nation treatment. Such a regime, based solely upon particular economic interests, is not inherently unstable despite its inconsistent application of rules and norms. It could, however, be destroyed by an external shock because of the absence of a hegemonic leader prepared to defend the general stability of the regime.

The Three-Headed EagleThe United States and System Change

Abstract: It is by now a commonplace observation that the “age of consensus” on questions of foreign policy was a casualty of the American involvement in Vietnam. This article focuses on the resulting domestic cleavages relating to foreign policy issues, and on their likely impact on American efforts to undertake basic systemic changes. The “Three-Headed Eagle” serves as a metaphor for a nation marked by three quite distinctive clusters of beliefs—described here as Cold War Internationalism, Post-Cold War Internationalism, and Isolationism“about the nature of the global system, the sources of threats to a just and stable world order, the appropriate international role for the United States, and the goals, strategies, and tactics that should guide American external relations. Will these cleavages persist? Efforts of the Nixon-Ford and Carter administrations to reestablish a foreign policy consensus, through policies of detente and human rights, have exacerbated rather than healed divisions. Systematic evidence from public opinion and leadership studies also appears to confirm the existence of the cleavages discussed here. Moreover, because the divisions exist within as well as between generations, it is unlikely that the ascendency of a new generation of leadership will automatically create a new foreign policy consensus.

The Geometry of the Arms Race

Abstract: This article develops a new methodology for analyzing the arms race between the two superpowers based on an extension of the classic Prisoner's Dilemma game to allow for sequences of moves. The sequence that is formally analyzed depends on a scenario in which each side: (1) possesses an ability to detect what the other side is doing with a specified probability, and (2) pursues a tit-for-tat policy of conditional cooperation—i.e., cooperates if it detects the other side is cooperating, otherwise does not. Given the detection probabilities and the reciprocity norm, the article demonstrates geometrically, when conditional cooperation between the superpowers is rational and, therefore, likely to occur. It discusses policy implications of this analysis for SALT and advances a qualified suggestion for the sharing of intelligence data. It concludes with suggestions for applying the methodology to other games and multistage game scenarios that mirror the dynamics of plausible sequences of moves.

Effects of Investment Dependence on Economic GrowthThe Role of Internal Structural Characteristics and Periods in the World Economy

Abstract: Dependency theorists have hypothesized negative effects of international economic dependence on economic growth, and recent analyses have demonstrated such negative effects for investment dependence. This research tests the effects on economic growth of the interaction between investment dependence and various forms of internal structural weakness, and it also explores the role of cycles in the world political economy. Highly significant interactive effects are found for national wealth: Poor nations (as measured by per capita GNP) experience significantly larger negative effects of investment dependence on economic growth than do rich nations. Three other structural measures do not show significant effects, but there does appear to be a significant combined interaction effect for national wealth and market size: Those nations which rank both among the poorest in our sample in per capita GNP and among the smallest in size of domestic market (raw GNP) are the most adversely affected by investment dependence. This is seen as further evidence for the general proposition that features of a nation's internal strength mediate the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth. The comparative effects of investment dependence in a period of rapid world economic expansion and in one of relative contraction vary according to the control variable used in the analysis. Overall, the results indicate that the effects of investment dependence may be less uniform than dependency theorists assert.

Promoting Nondiscrimination Against Women

Abstract: This essay explores the role of the UN Commission on the Status of Women in promoting the norm of nondiscrimination against women. The commission's legal mandate, its efforts to develop the norm of nondiscrimination, to acquire a constituency, and to influence that constituency to observe the norm are discussed. The commission had a limited legal mandate to promote nondiscrimination; however, it has contributed significantly to the political process of legitimating the norm by calling for 1975 to be designated as International Women's Year and a UN World Conference as the focal point for that year. As a result, national governments and international organizations have begun to alter laws and practices that discriminate against women. Because the norm has not yet achieved wide acceptance throughout the world, the author advocates the continued existence of the commission and makes several recommendations on the commission's future efforts to promote wider observance of the norm.

Comparative Research on World-System Characteristics

Abstract: This article is a discussion of the methodological problems of testing causal propositions relating variables that are characteristics of the world-system as a whole. A short summary of the world-system perspective on international relations suggests a number of hypotheses regarding processes that operate at the level of the whole system. The feasibility of testing these propositions with the time-series method of analysis of a single case is discussed, and problems arising from the use of this research design are considered. There are eight anticipated problems regarding operationalization and measurement: (1) bounding and mapping the system and its constituent zones; (2) validity and reliability of measures over time; (3) limitations of aggregating data on nation-states to create contextual world-system variables; (4) transformation of nation-state data to make it more suitable for world-system research; (5) combining data from different sources in the same indicator; (6) noncontinuous data series; (7) the width of a time point and measurement error in time; and (8) the small number of instances of long-run processes over the 500-year history of the world-system. It is suggested that, although this approach to research is fraught with difficulties, it holds promise for helping to take the world-system perspective beyond its present status as a fruitful paradigm for interpreting history toward a causal understanding of the developmental logic of the system.

The Geneva Conference of 1954A Case of Tacit Deception

Abstract: This article uses a game-theoretic model of deception to examine a game played at the Geneva Conference of 1954 by the Western Alliance, the Sino-Soviet bloc and the Vietminh. It argues that if this game were played as a game of complete information, the sophisticated outcome would have been a withdrawal of French forces from Vietnam, followed immediately by an election whose probable winner would have been Ho Chi Minh. For the Western Alliance, especially the United States, this outcome was seen as the least-preferred of the three possible outcomes. However, because the Western Alliance was able to make a false announcement of its preferences, it was able tacitly to deceive the Soviets, Chinese, and Vietminh into believing that its misrepresentation was its true preference. Thus, it was able to induce its second-most-preferred alternative, the partition of Vietnam, as the (manipulated) sophisticated outcome of the game.

Diplomacy of Human Rights

Abstract: This discussion of the diplomatic dimension—the foreign politics of human rights—addresses (1) the nature of this new transnational issue, (2) possible approaches and their effects, and (3) problems that complicate promotion of human rights. The author argues that violations of human rights reflect an increasing global crisis and that response to that crisis bears directly on other U.S. objectives. The author concludes that sustained U.S. advocacy of internationally recognized human rights will depend on the degree to which Americans accept the argument that promotion of these rights both serves their national interest and contributes to the overdue redefinition of that interest.

Human Rights, National Security, and The U.S. SenateWho Votes For What, and Why

Abstract: The chief concern of this study is to determine how members of the U.S. Senate perceive the linkage between human rights and national security, and to explain what domestic factors affect this perception. Regression analysis of eight human rights votes during the Ninety-Third and Ninety-Fourth Congresses shows that strongly prodefense perspectives on national security have a heavy and significant negative effect on human rights voting in the Senate. Party identification is a distant second, with Democrats exhibiting a greater tendency to vote for human rights issues than Republicans. The analysis also shows that two constituency variables are significant, though weak, influences: region and safeness of seat. Senators from the southern states are somewhat less likely to take a pro-human rights position, as are those with larger electoral margins in their most recent election. Other variables (seniority, educational level in state, and defense spending in state) do not have discernible effects on human rights voting in the Senate. The strong negative effect of national security may indicate that senators with more prodefense, or “hawkish” orientations vote against human rights measures largely because they want to give unfettered primacy in American foreign policy to national security policy.

Scientific Forecasts in International Relations: Problems of Definition and Epistemology

Abstract: Contemporary analyses of international relations forecasting contain conceptual and epistemological errors Alternative definitions of forecasting are contradictory; programs for developing scientific forecasts of international phenomena fail to acknowledge important epistemological difficulties Forecasting and prediction are distinguished, and several illustrations of each type of activity are presented Criteria for determining the soundness of scientific forecasts then are offered, and the prospects for constructing sound international relations forecasts are assessed The primary conclusion is that individual-level generalizations of events like crises have the greatest potential in this regard Forecasts of systems-transformation, in contrast, will never be scientifically sound; generalizations of this kind offer the least potential for developing scientifically meaningful forecasts

The Epidemiology of Peace and War

Abstract: Epidemiology is a relatively advanced discipline which offers theories and methods that may be useful in helping us better understand peace and war. Similarities between peace and health, war and disease, center in concern with preservation and extension of human life, on the one hand, and prevention of physical damage and death, on the other. The epidemiological model suggests that description of peace and war should move toward an integrated definition which includes both broad and narrow dimensions. Standard measures of morbidity and mortality, and the distinction between endemic and epidemic configurations of disease, can help specify patterns of peace and war. Attempts to explain peace and war should not focus on a possible single primary agent. Instead, they should try to identify a system of multiple interrelated causes, including social, biological, and physical dimensions of the environment, as well as rational and irrational aspects of decision making. Prediction should include prognoses of the natural course of wars in general and of particular wars, as well as the identification of nations at high risk of war. Prescription implies intensive care in acute cases, positive alteration of chronic risk factors, and an experimental perspective.

Arms Transfers and Military CapabilityMeasuring and Evaluating Conventional Arms Transfers

Abstract: For the last several years the international transfer of conventional arms has grown to alarming proportions and touched off considerable concern among researchers who are attempting to decipher the seemingly increasing role which arms transfers play in international relations. In an attempt to come to grips with the arms transfer problem through systematic, data-based research, analysts have employed several measurement techniques. A close examination of the more commonly employed techniques reveals that each of them has limitations restricting it to a narrow set of arms transfers issues. One issue of arms transfers which has not yet been addressed satisfactorily concerns plausibly measuring military capability along a scale which has ratio as well as interval properties. In an effort to help solve this problem, a weapons capability measure based on multi-attribute utility theory is proposed.

Human Rights and U.S. Foreign Policy: Some Basic Questions Regarding Principles and Practice

Abstract: Ten questions are addressed concerning human rights and American foreign policy. First, when did the human rights movement start and what was its impetus? Second, what business does the United States have in instructing others on human rights practices? Third, what has Congress done? Fourth, what has the executive branch done? Fifth, what are the United Nations and other international agencies doing in this field? Sixth, why is it in our interest to pursue human rights issues? Seventh, what are the most sensible ways to deal with human rights violations? Eighth, how important is it to be consistent in the application of human rights efforts? Ninth, what is the role of nongovernmental organizations. Tenth, what are the prospects for the future of this policy?

Current Nuclear Deterrence Thinking

Abstract: There is an active debate in both the academic and policy communities regarding both strategic nuclear doctrine and the American force configuration supporting that doctrine. The major purpose of this review article is to examine the major issues that affect the debate and the solutions proposed to deal with those problems. Since the debate centers on the adequacy of mutual assured destruction (MAD), the discussion begins by reviewing that doctrine. The nature of the Soviet challenge, both doctrinally and in terms of force characteristics, is discussed as the major impetus to the debate, followed by an analysis of proposed doctrinal alternatives and force options potentially available in the 1980s. The paper concludes with a brief assessment of the Soviet thermonuclear threat and proposed countermeasures to it.

Comments on “Scientific Forecasts in International Relations”

Abstract: The initial disclaimers at the outset of the article that the authors seek neither to forecast nor to make a contribution to the "corpus of knowledge" in this area leave one with a sense of uncertainty about the context in which the issues raised must be viewed. It would constitute the essence of unfair practice to regard the article in any context other than that intended by the authors. The following observations are, therefore, of a more general nature by way of clarifying some of the issues raised in that article. These comments are presented in the order in which they are discussed by the authors. (1) It is clear that little attention is devoted to forecasting in international relations. This is due not only, or even largely, to the absence of data-we have more information in variables such as energy projection, and consumption, than we know what to do with-but, more fundamentally, to the absence of underlying theory to guide a forecast (or prediction or projection) or to develop an internally consistent and useful simulation. It is the absence of theory, rather than data, that should be lamented by the authors in that (and most other) respects. (2) Clearly, there is no consensus regarding the nature of forecasting. The authors refer to forecasting and prediction, but neglect projections and simulations. A critique of the issues that are broader than "semantics" in their nature would be more

A Reply to “Detection and Disarmament”

Abstract: Professor Dacey offers an interesting refinement of our model. However, his argument for distinguishing the two conditional detection probabilities is compelling, we believe, only if it is generally true that these probabilities can vary independently. We believe that this is not true in the superpower arms race-that is, there is almost surely a close, if unspecifiable, connection between these probabilities, which would tend to invalidate Dacey's analytic refinement. Dacey makes a more general point which we think is a good one: The "irreconcilable" conflict we discussed, which exists when the unconditional probabilities PA and PB can vary independently, translates into a new kind of (intelligence) conflict when the conditional probabilities can vary independently. That is one reason why we devoted most of our article to an analysis of the special case PA = PB = p, in which there is no independent variation in the detection probabilities. The other reason for constraining these probabilities is that the equalization assumption may fairly well approximate the similar detection capabilities of the two superpowers. To the extent that these are not the same, Dacey is correct in arguing that the sharing of information is rational only if both sides harbor similar beliefs that the other side cooperated in the first stage of the game scenario. What all this means, we believe, is that cooperation in the superpower arms race is heavily dependent on similar technological capabilities, reinforced by similar beliefs. Such sym-

A Brief Reply

Abstract: Professor Choucri's comments on our work serve to highlight several critical issues concerning forecasting and prediction in international relations as well as several points where her views and ours continue to differ on these issues. For the most part, the nature of these disputes is clear. Our remarks in rejoinder will be brief, limited to refinement and clarification. Professor Choucri describes our work as another article about international relations forecasting and implies that, given the current corpus of such work, what is really needed are investigations of a practical nature which produce actual forecasts and evaluate actual forecasts. We continue to maintain that unless greater understanding of certain conceptual and epistemological issues is achieved first, the relevance and efficiency of certain forecasting and prediction activities in international relations is, and will continue to remain, questionable. Conceptual inconsistencies in the literature are important to the extent that they do have practical consequences. It is in this context then, and on the basis of our own practical experience (Duncan and Job, 1978; Berry et al. 1978) as well as the experiences of others, that our article was written. This being our intent, three matters deserve attention. The first concerns uncertainty involved in making statements about the future. Coping with and reducing uncertainty are obviously the goals of the international relations analyst, and the manner in which, and the degree to which, this is accomplished has important consequences. In contrast with other writers, we in fact

Expanding the International Human Rights Research Agenda

Abstract: A review of research in international human rights suggests an expanded agenda for scholars in several disciplines. The vast literature on human rights activities of the UN and regional systems is primarily descriptive or devoted to legal analysis. Ten research needs are identified. First, empirical research is suggested to ascertain to what extent the major international instruments for the protection of human rights reflect conceptions of rights which are shared by mankind as a whole. Second, it is suggested that obstacles to the implementation of human rights be analyzed to identify ideologically neutral rights and to test hypotheses about the relation between economic/social and civil/political rights. A third set of studies concerns the use of public opinion to improve human rights conditions. Closely connected (and badly needed) is research on a fourth topic, the role of education in promoting respect for human rights—especially its most effective timing and sequencing of topics. Fifth, because the balance of prior work on technological advances has concerned their potential threat to human rights, further study is needed of the ways to utilize them positively. Sixth, the potential of national human rights commissions for expanded work on the international dimensions of human rights should be studied. A seventh topic concerns the effectiveness of various enforcement techniques—adjudication, conciliation, fact finding, and reporting. Eighth, research attention should be devoted to the study of the interaction between the UN, specialized agencies and regional agencies, as well as governmental and nongovernmental organizations. Ninth, cases where international action is known to have brought about an improvement in conditions should be analyzed and compared to other cases where such action has not been effective. Finally, it is suggested that researchers assess the role of nongovernmental organizations, especially in protecting the human rights of specialized groups.

The Improvement of The UN Machinery on Human Rights

Abstract: Important progress has taken place in the last thirty years with respect to the protection of human rights, both as far as international legislation is concerned and in the more difficult field of implementation. But the machinery developed for these purposes by the United Nations is creaky and needs to be repaired. The Commission on Human Rights and the Third Committee of the General Assembly are grossly overworked and, in consequence, several important human rights instruments are languishing in them, without a chance of completion. To remedy this, it is suggested that the functions of both the Commission and the Committee be split and assigned to separate bodies: one commission devoted to the codification of human rights law, and one discussing special situations and communications, and supervising other UN human rights activities; one committee dealing exclusively with human rights, and one dealing with other social, humanitarian and cultural matters. The various UN procedures for implementing human rights instruments should also be streamlined. The several periodic reporting systems need to be consolidated, and might all be put in the hands of the Human Rights Committee (functioning under the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, but not necessarily limited to supervising reports under it) and a working group on economic and social rights of the Economic and Social Council. As far as violations of human rights are concerned, the General Assembly itself or the Economic and Social Council should directly deal with gross violations of human rights, after a preliminary screening by a working group of five persons, one from each region, and should utilize the glare of publicity to achieve compliance. Some of these steps can be taken through General Assembly decisions. If they appear too drastic, optional protocols might be prepared, through which states could accept the jurisdiction of a designated body of the United Nations to deal with certain problems, reports or complaints.

Another Perspective on Foreign Policy Making and Foreign Policy Research

Abstract: In the September 1978 issue of this journal, J. Martin Rochester and Michael Segalla published an article entitled "What Foreign Policy Makers Want From Foreign Policy Researchers: A Data-Based Assessment of FAR Research." While interesting and informative, that article is in a number of very important instances misleading and in spots even inaccurate. These distortions are particularly unfortunate when one considers the importance of the relationship of basic and applied international relations research, and the recent progress (unreported in the 1975 data-based assessment) made toward the amelioration of the so-called "relevance problem." Accordingly, this short comment attempts to address some of the inaccuracies present in the Rochester and Segalla article.