Showing papers in "International Studies Quarterly in 1984"

Expropriation as an Attempt to Control Foreign Firms in LDCs: Trends from 1960 to 1979

Abstract: Expropriations in 79 LDCs are analyzed from 1960 to 1979, with a concentration of takeovers noted in the early 1970s and a significant decline thereafter. Four hypotheses are suggested to explain this pattern. First, nationalization of sectors such as oil, mining and utilities, where foreign ownership, per se , is incompatible with economic control or national security, was virtually complete by 1975. Second, as time since independence passed, LDCs gained confidence in their own identities and their perceptions of foreign direct investment became less symbolic and more functional and pragmatic. Third, and most importantly, as bargaining power, technical and administrative capabilities, and knowledge of multinational firms increased, states became more confident of their ability to achieve control indirectly through regulation and, in industries where ownership was not of the essence, saw direct control through expropriation as less effecient and effective. Last, the economic problems faced by many of the LDCs in the late 1970s increased the attractiveness of foreign investment and/or constrained expropriation.

The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology: A Theoretical and Historical Analysis

Abstract: This study examines various attempts to define the concept of the offensive/defensive balance of military technology, to trace the theoretical consequences of an offensive or defensive advantage, and to measure or classify the balance for the last eight centuries. It is concluded that the last two tasks are flawed because of the ambiguity of the concept of the offensive/defensive balance. There are multiple definitions and multiple hypotheses, but these are not interchangeable, particularly between the pre-nuclear and nuclear eras, where the concept means something fundamentally different. Hypotheses appropriate for one definition may be implausible or tautological for another. It is concluded that the notion of the offensive/defensive balance is too vague and encompassing to be useful in theoretical or historical analysis, but that some of the individual variables that have been incorporated under this broader concept may themselves be useful. Much more analysis is needed, however, to demonstrate that these concepts have important theoretical consequences. The literature on international relations and military history contains numerous references to the offensive or defensive balance of military technology and its impact on war. Historians often characterize a particular era as favoring the offense or the defense, and theorists often hypothesize that technology favoring the offense increases the likelihood of war or contributes to empire-building. More generally, it has been suggested that the history of warfare and weaponry can be viewed in terms of the interplay between the offense and the defense (Snow, 1983:83). These analyses are not generally meaningful, however, because they are rarely guided by any explicit definition of the key concept of the offensive/defensive balance. The concept itself has been defined in a variety of ways which are often contradictory and which confuse the meaning of the hypotheses in question. Attempts to classify the balance historically are also inconsistent. These inconsistencies are obscured by the failure of both the theoretical and historical literature to acknowledge and build upon earlier scholarship and also by the absence of any general review of the literature. As a result, little is known about the offensive/defensive balance and its impact on war.

Public Goods, Prisoners' Dilemmas and the International Political Economy

Abstract: The theory of public goods and prisoners' dilemma games have been widely used to characterize bargaining situations in international political economy. This paper will suggest, using the example of the hegemonic stability thesis with regard to free trade, that there are qualitative differences between public goods and prisoners' dilemmas, leading to several conclusions. First, insofar as international trade has uncooperative aspects, these are more likely to take the form of prisoners' dilemmas than public goods. Second, hegemons should not find free trade to be their first best strategy, particularly when one considers the power of the hegemon within the context of the pure theory of trade. Third, the uncooperative prisoners' dilemma elements in international trade have been exaggerated relative to the incentives for some form of cooperation between the parties to international trade. Fourth, the distinction between prisoners' dilemmas and public goods, though both may lead to uncooperative interaction, is important because the solution strategies, deterrence and compellence, differ in nature and feasibility.

The Dialectics of World Order: Notes for a Future Archeologist of International Savoir Faire

Abstract: Generated by an intent to write an internationally useful text on the theory and practice of world politics in the twentieth century, this paper represents a preliminary attempt to review and make sense of that field.’ Our focus will be on the contending world order concepts, designs or doctrines embodied within the recent history of globally oriented political practices, as well as the evaluative criticisms, alternative explorations and theoretical rationalizations occasioned by such practices. The search for order in and beyond contemporary world politics has repeatedly transcended or redefined the boundaries of the political. Hence International Relations, rather than its major subdiscipline World Politics, is the most generally relevant academic field for studying contending world orders.

The Global Crisis

Abstract: This article begins from a review of various approaches to global modeling, concluding that, by reducing our world to physical and economic categories alone, one cannot explain the workings of the world system. Any adequate global model, it is argued, must also account for social and political forces. The author views integrated global modeling as a multidisciplinary effort which must develop a symbiosis of physical/economic and social/political categories. Toward this end, the fulcrum of politics and decisionmaking in a global setting is examined, and an analytical model of world politics based on four key-forces is suggested. On the basis of this model, principles of political forecasting at the global level and three possible scenarios for the year 2000 are discussed.

A Pre-Theory Revisited: World Politics in an Era of Cascading Interdependence

Abstract: On the presumption that the structures of global affairs are undergoing a profound crisis of authority and other changes of a comparable magnitude, the analysis seeks to build a comprehensive theory of world politics that synthesizes these developments at micro as well as macro levels. The synthesis is accomplished by focusing on the simultaneity and expansivity of patterns promoting both the coherence and the breakdown of systems at all levels, patterns that are given the label of ‘cascading interdependence’ and that are explored through the concepts of action scripts, analytic aptitudes, subgroupism, aggregation, and adaptation. In this context governments are posited as increasingly ineffective as international actors and individuals as increasingly skilled in their public roles. In addition, analysts of world politics are seen as inevitably shaping the course of events, so that it is important for them to remain ever sensitive to the ways in which they interact with the world they seek to study.

Beneath the Commerce of Nations: A Theory of International Economic Structures

Abstract: Drawing upon the theory of hegemonic stability, this paper advances a theory of international economic structures. It places particular emphasis on analyzing the whole structure of the international economy, and not simply the absence or presence of hegemony. It finds that there is no axiomatic relationship between hegemony and free trade or declining hegemony and protection. By differentiating between non-hegemonic structures, moreover, the theory of international economic structures also calls into question the appropriateness of the 'British' or '1930' analogy for the future of the present international economy. Finally, the theory is briefly examined through the cases of American trade policy in the inter-war period and the 1970s and early 1980s. The conclusion argues against simplistic analogies between the two periods and maintains that a considerable potential does exist for collective leadership of the international economy in the 1980s. Drawing upon the decline of the Pax Britannica in the late 19th century and the inter-war period, current variants of the theory of hegemonic stability predict that America's declining hegemony will lead to increased economic instability, international conflict and national protectionism. Gilpin, in particular, has argued that there are three possible scenarios for the present and future international economy.

A Spatial Model of Crisis Bargaining

Abstract: This study deals with the problem of determining whether states engaged in an international crisis will arrive at a negotiated settlement or go to war. A formal model of crisis bargaining that is based on a spatial representation of the theory of games is proposed as an analytical tool. The paper shows how the model can be used to derive probabilistic predictions regarding crisis outcomes and that these predictions are identical to the Nash bargaining solution when restrictive assumptions similar to Nash's are imposed on the model. A case study of the Fashoda crisis of 1898 is used to demonstrate the utility of the model as a conceptual framework.

Threat Power in Sequential Games

Abstract: The analysis of 2 × 2 ordinal games, in which both players can sequentially move and countermove after an initial outcome is chosen, is extended to repeated play of these games in which one player has ‘threat power’. This power enables this player to threaten the other player with a mutually disadvantageous outcome in order to deter certain moves in the future play of the game. Except for no-conflict games with a mutually best outcome, there are relatively few games in which neither player can threaten the other. Of the games in which one or both players has a threat strategy, those in which one player does enables him to implement an outcome at least as high-ranking for himself as for the other player. In the bulk of games in which both players have threat strategies, threat power is effective—it is always better for a player to have it than for the other player to have it. Where ‘deterrent’ and ‘compellent’ threat power outcomes conflict, deterrent threat power induces a better outcome; conditions for the existence of both kinds of threats in 2 × 2 games, and for the threatener to implement his best outcome in general two-person games, are given. To illustrate the threat-power model, it is applied to the Polish strategic situation in 1980–81. Finally, threat power is compared with other kinds of power that have been proposed in nonrepeated play, and, ominously, ‘Chicken’ is the one game in which threat power is uniquely effective in undermining a nonmyopically stable ‘cooperative’ outcome.

International Crises, 1945–1975: The UN Dimension

Abstract: This study focuses on the record of UN involvement in international crises during the 1945–1975 period. It is guided by two general research questions: (1) what is the relationship between the attributes of international crises and the extent, substance, substance, and effectiveness of UN activity; and (2) under what conditions is UN intervention in international crises likely to lead to favorable outcomes. Data on 160 crises are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Project data set. In general, we find that while the UN intervened in only 59% of all crises, its rate of intervention in serious crises (crises with violent triggers, grave threat, violent crisis management techniques, and large numbers of participants) was considerably higher. The UN was most effective in crisis abatement in crises involving full scale war. Crises with UN intervention were more likely than others to terminate in some form of agreement among the parties.

Bureaucratic-organizational Politics and Information Processing in a Developing State

Abstract: This article argues that the bureaucratic-organizational paradigms can be usefully applied to the understanding of information processing in the decisionmaking context of developing states. Using the Sino-Indian border dispute of 1959–1962 as a case study, the author shows that various dimensions of inter-organizational relations, intra-group dynamics and the small group-organization nexus explain the emergent preference, within the decisionmaking group, for a specific interpretation of situations and the degree of openness to dissonant information regarding those situations. The article concludes by drawing some general conclusions with regard to bureaucratic-organizational politics in general and in a Third World context in particular.

Psychopolitical Dimensions of International Relations: The Reciprocal Effects of Conflict Strategies

Abstract: This essay presents a psychopolitical theory concerning the interaction effects of parties in conflict using different strategies. A typology of conflict strategies is elaborated, ranging from totalist and long-run totalist, through competitive and deterrent, to firm-but-cooperative and conciliatory. The strategies are explicated in terms of their aims, the means used, and the associated self-images, enemy perceptions, and conflict beliefs. The reciprocal interaction effects of the different strategies are then analyzed. This analysis takes into account the effects of each strategy on the adversary's self-images and enemy perceptions as well as on its tangible costs and benefits, all of which, in turn, affect its strategy. A series of hypotheses is presented concerning the mutual interaction effects for each combination of strategies, under conditions of equal and unequal power. Conclusions are then drawn concerning the effects of each strategy on different types of adversaries and upon the prospects for achieving constructive or destructive conflict outcomes.

Regime-Creation by a Coalition of the Weak: Lessons from the NIEO and the Integrated Program for Commodities

Abstract: Neither the New International Economic Order nor the Integrated Program for Commodities have been analyzed as examples of attempted regime-creation. The results of doing so, especially for the IPC, suggest two speculative, but plausible, conclusions. First, a coalition of the weak can affect regime-creation, provided that the coalition remains unified and develops a bargaining strategy appropriate to the context of decision. Second, regime thinking, despite its conceptual weaknesses, can have a beneficial practical effect by providing a useful, if partial, frame of reference for decision-makers. These arguments are illustrated for the Group of 77 by discussing an alternative bargaining strategy and some tactical implications in the IPC case. Some suggestions are also made about possible improvements in regime thinking itself, especially in the need to treat appropriate bargaining strategies as intervening variables between regimes and outcomes.

Foreign Policy in Asymmetrical Dyads: Theoretical Reformulation and Empirical Analysis, Canada-United States Relations, 1963-1972

Abstract: The results of a previous test of a theory of foreign policies of subordinate states in asymmetrical dyads conducted on Canada-United States relations in the 1963-72 period are used as a foundation for a modification of the original theory and a revised empirical test. In the reformulated theory, three conditions-the state of the economy of the superordinate and the subordinate nations, the extent of concentration in the latter's linkages with the superordinate power, and a set of

Soviet Policies and Kremlin Politics

Abstract: Soviet foreign policy reflects the characteristics of the political process that produces it. Since 1953, the Soviet policymaking process has assumed five distinct forms—here called ‘regimes’. Each regime—Pluralistic, Directive, Primatial, Oligarchic, and Cartelistic—corresponds to a specific pattern of intra-elite competition and division of decisionmaking authority. Each regime, in turn, yields a unique ‘policy syndrome’—a unique combination of policy attributes. Here, four attributes are considered: consistency, responsiveness, coherence, and risk-taking. The relationships between regimes and policy syndromes are tested empirically, using COPDAB measures of Soviet-American interaction between 1953 and 1977.

A Comparative Analysis of Monadic and Dyadic Perspectives on the 1976 Lebanese Crisis

Abstract: Do monadic and dyadic approaches to the study of international crisis produce different representations of reality? This question is explored through an analysis of the 1976 Lebanese Crisis. A comparison is made between Dawisha's (1980) analysis of Syrian decisionmaking processes and an events data-based early warning indicator. The study investigates whether the quantitative shifts in the interactions among Lebanese groups correspond with what the Syrians perceived to be critical turning points in the civil war. The evidence indicates for the most part there is congruence. It suggests that monadic and dyadic perspectives are not always far apart in their intellectual appraisal of crises and that a call for a synthesis in the study of crisis management is not unreasonable.

Safeguards and Profits: Civilian Nuclear Exports, Neo-Marxism, and the Statist Approach

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to appraise the explanatory capacities of the Statist model and of structural Marxism-amended and elaborated here-as applied to the issue area of the regulation of civilian trade in sensitive nuclear facilities and fuel. During periods of 'happy convergence' between the interests of state managers and of pertinent societal groups, many scholars find little to chose between the two models. In moments of 'policy crisis' however, we find that structural Marxism provides the better account of the dynamics of conflict over policy formulation. The article indicates that the revised structural Marxist model warrants further applications in a limited but highly crucial set of policy problems which exhibit the characteristics of 'crisis' described herein.

Comparative Analysis with Events Data- A Reply to McClelland

Abstract: In his reflections on my comparison of the WEIS and COPDAB US-USSR interaction data (International Studies Quarterly, June 1983), Charles McClelland bases his comments on a perspective reflecting only a knowledge of the WEIS data set and its origins. His admitted lack of knowledge about COPDAB hinders his analysis of my comparison and introduces several errors in his presentation. His first error lies in his claim that I 'lumped' the COMMENT and CONSULT categories in with other cooperative event categories, inappropriately inflating the levels of cooperation between the US and the USSR. He deduces this from the assumption that I employed a Burgess and Lawton (1972) chart which contains a singular omission of a WEIS subcategory (193 Suspend Aid). He concludes that

European Political Cooperation: An Application of Political Reliability Theory to Integration

Abstract: European Political Cooperation (EPC) denotes the foreign policy integration among members of the European Economic Community (EEC). The extent of political cooperative integration is analyzed by focusing upon the 'political reliability' or probability that EPC events reflect a consistent pattern of integration rather than merely an increasing frequency of interaction. A positive theory of EPC is built from first assumptions about unobservable integrative and disintegrative forces. Observable, politically cooperative events (e.g., European Council meetings, summit meetings, joint declarations, collective sanctions) are the consequence of the system of unobservable political forces which drive EPC activity. Two fundamental variables-political reliability and political interaction force-uniquely determine the EPC event process. Empirical tests strongly support the theory and demonstrate that by the mid1970s the forces of integration acting on the EPC system prevailed over the forces of disintegration. Two underlying processes may contribute to European foreign policy integration, however. The first is governed by a constant (Poisson) force, the other by a strong interaction force. These two subprocesses resemble interactions within the Political Committee of EPC and within the COREU telecommunications network.

Economic Performance and Transient European Cabinet Administrations: Implications For Consociational Parliamentary Democracies

Abstract: While many scholars note the political costs of poor national economic performance for incubent politicians in European democracies, few studies compare the relative success of different types of parliamentary democracies in securing enduring cabinet administrations. The present study compares the relationship between the longevity of cabinet administrations and the nature of economic performance (e.g., inflation and unemployment) in two groups of European democracies: consociational parliamentary democracies (Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands) and non-consociational parliamentary-or modified parliamentary-democracies (Finland, France, Great Britain, Norway and West Germany). The findings are based on longitudinal (1958-1982) cross-national data which have been segregated for analysis into consociational (N = 44) and non-consociational (N = 60) samples. The country samples are restricted by the availability of comparable monthly economic data, yet the study confirms that consociational democracies are more susceptible to the discontinuity of policy and the decline of executive authority as a result of rising prices and employment than are non-consociational democracies. Furthermore, as expected, the effect of sustained unemployment and relative price increases across successive cabinet administrations is found to be particularly significant for consociational democracy in this sample.