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Showing papers in "JAMA in 2001"


Journal ArticleDOI
09 May 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: It is confirmed that atrial fibrillation is common among older adults and provides a contemporary basis for estimates of prevalence in the United States.
Abstract: ContextAtrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia in elderly persons and a potent risk factor for stroke. However, recent prevalence and projected future numbers of persons with atrial fibrillation are not well described.ObjectiveTo estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation and US national projections of the numbers of persons with atrial fibrillation through the year 2050.Design, Setting, and PatientsCross-sectional study of adults aged 20 years or older who were enrolled in a large health maintenance organization in California and who had atrial fibrillation diagnosed between July 1, 1996, and December 31, 1997.Main Outcome MeasuresPrevalence of atrial fibrillation in the study population of 1.89 million; projected number of persons in the United States with atrial fibrillation between 1995-2050.ResultsA total of 17 974 adults with diagnosed atrial fibrillation were identified during the study period; 45% were aged 75 years or older. The prevalence of atrial fibrillation was 0.95% (95% confidence interval, 0.94%-0.96%). Atrial fibrillation was more common in men than in women (1.1% vs 0.8%; P<.001). Prevalence increased from 0.1% among adults younger than 55 years to 9.0% in persons aged 80 years or older. Among persons aged 50 years or older, prevalence of atrial fibrillation was higher in whites than in blacks (2.2% vs 1.5%; P<.001). We estimate approximately 2.3 million US adults currently have atrial fibrillation. We project that this will increase to more than 5.6 million (lower bound, 5.0; upper bound, 6.3) by the year 2050, with more than 50% of affected individuals aged 80 years or older.ConclusionsOur study confirms that atrial fibrillation is common among older adults and provides a contemporary basis for estimates of prevalence in the United States. The number of patients with atrial fibrillation is likely to increase 2.5-fold during the next 50 years, reflecting the growing proportion of elderly individuals. Coordinated efforts are needed to face the increasing challenge of optimal stroke prevention and rhythm management in patients with atrial fibrillation.

6,054 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
14 Feb 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Though prevalent in white postmenopausal women, osteoporosis occurs in all populations and at all ages and has significant physical, psychosocial, and financial consequences.
Abstract: OBJECTIVES To clarify the factors associated with prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of osteoporosis, and to present the most recent information available in these areas. PARTICIPANTS From March 27-29, 2000, a nonfederal, nonadvocate, 13-member panel was convened, representing the fields of internal medicine, family and community medicine, endocrinology, epidemiology, orthopedic surgery, gerontology, rheumatology, obstetrics and gynecology, preventive medicine, and cell biology. Thirty-two experts from these fields presented data to the panel and an audience of 699. Primary sponsors were the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and the National Institutes of Health Office of Medical Applications of Research. EVIDENCE MEDLINE was searched for January 1995 through December 1999, and a bibliography of 2449 references provided to the panel. Experts prepared abstracts for presentations with relevant literature citations. Scientific evidence was given precedence over anecdotal experience. CONSENSUS PROCESS The panel, answering predefined questions, developed conclusions based on evidence presented in open forum and the literature. The panel composed a draft statement, which was read and circulated to the experts and the audience for public discussion. The panel resolved conflicts and released a revised statement at the end of the conference. The draft statement was posted on the Web on March 30, 2000, and updated with the panel's final revisions within a few weeks. CONCLUSIONS Though prevalent in white postmenopausal women, osteoporosis occurs in all populations and at all ages and has significant physical, psychosocial, and financial consequences. Risks for osteoporosis (reflected by low bone mineral density [BMD]) and for fracture overlap but are not identical. More attention should be paid to skeletal health in persons with conditions associated with secondary osteoporosis. Clinical risk factors have an important but poorly validated role in determining who should have BMD measurement, in assessing fracture risk, and in determining who should be treated. Adequate calcium and vitamin D intake is crucial to develop optimal peak bone mass and to preserve bone mass throughout life. Supplementation with these 2 nutrients may be necessary in persons not achieving recommended dietary intake. Gonadal steroids are important determinants of peak and lifetime bone mass in men, women, and children. Regular exercise, especially resistance and high-impact activities, contributes to development of high peak bone mass and may reduce risk of falls in older persons. Assessment of bone mass, identification of fracture risk, and determination of who should be treated are the optimal goals when evaluating patients for osteoporosis. Fracture prevention is the primary treatment goal for patients with osteoporosis. Several treatments have been shown to reduce the risk of osteoporotic fractures, including those that enhance bone mass and reduce the risk or consequences of falls. Adults with vertebral, rib, hip, or distal forearm fractures should be evaluated for osteoporosis and given appropriate therapy.

4,623 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
13 Jun 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The 2 existing classification schemes and especially a new stroke risk index, CHADS, can quantify risk of stroke for patients who have AF and may aid in selection of antithrombotic therapy.
Abstract: a c statistic of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80-0.84), the CHADS2 index was the most accurate predictor of stroke. The stroke rate per 100 patient-years without antithrombotic therapy increased by a factor of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3-1.7) for each 1-point increase in the CHADS2 score: 1.9 (95% CI, 1.2-3.0) for a score of 0; 2.8 (95% CI, 2.0-3.8) for 1; 4.0 (95% CI, 3.1-5.1) for 2; 5.9 (95% CI, 4.6-7.3) for 3; 8.5 (95% CI, 6.3-11.1) for 4; 12.5 (95% CI, 8.2-17.5) for 5; and 18.2 (95% CI, 10.5-27.4) for 6. Conclusion The 2 existing classification schemes and especially a new stroke risk index, CHADS2, can quantify risk of stroke for patients who have AF and may aid in selection of antithrombotic therapy.

4,498 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
18 Jul 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Elevated levels of CRP and IL-6 predict the development of type 2 DM, and data support a possible role for inflammation in diabetogenesis.
Abstract: Results Baseline levels of IL-6 (P,001) and CRP (P,001) were significantly higher among cases than among controls The relative risks of future DM for women in the highest vs lowest quartile of these inflammatory markers were 75 for IL-6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-154) and 157 for CRP (95% CI, 65-379) Positive associations persisted after adjustment for body mass index, family history of diabetes, smoking, exercise, use of alcohol, and hormone replacement therapy; multivariate relative risks for the highest vs lowest quartiles were 23 for IL-6 (95% CI, 09-56; P for trend=07) and 42 for CRP (95% CI, 15-120; P for trend=001) Similar results were observed in analyses limited to women with a baseline hemoglobin A1c of 60% or less and after adjustment for fasting insulin level

4,107 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
25 Apr 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The issue of bullying merits serious attention, both for future research and preventive intervention, as well as the potential long-term negative outcomes for these youth.
Abstract: BULLYING AMONG SCHOOL-AGED youth is increasingly being recognized as an important problem affecting well-being and social functioning. While a certain amount of conflict and harassment is typical of youth peer relations, bullying presents a potentially more serious threat to healthy youth development. The definition of bullying is widely agreed on in literature on bullying.1–4 Bullying is a specific type of aggression in which (1) the behavior is intended to harm or disturb, (2) the behavior occurs repeatedly over time, and (3) there is an imbalance of power, with a more powerful person or group attacking a less powerful one. This asymmetry of power may be physical or psychological, and the aggressive behavior may be verbal (eg, name-calling, threats), physical (eg, hitting), or psychological (eg, rumors, shunning/exclusion). The majority of research on bullying has been conducted in Europe and Australia. Considerable variability among countries in the prevalence of bullying has been reported. In an international survey of adolescent health-related behaviors, the percentage of students who reported being bullied at least once during the current term ranged from a low of 15% to 20% in some countries to a high of 70% in others.5,6 Of particular concern is frequent bullying, typically defined as bullying that occurs once a week or more. The prevalence of frequent bullying reported internationally ranges from a low of 1.9% among 1 Irish sample to a high of 19% in a Malta study.1,7–12 Bullying takes many forms, and findings about the types of bullying that occur are fairly similar across countries. A British study involving 23 schools found that direct verbal aggression was the most common form of bullying, occurring with similar frequency in both sexes.13 Direct physical aggression was more common among boys, while indirect forms were more common among girls. Similarly, in a study of several middle schools in Rome, the most common types of bullying reported by boys were threats, physical harm, rejection, and name-calling.14 The most common forms for girls were name-calling, teasing, rumors, rejection, and taking of personal belongings. Research examining characteristics of youth involved in bullying has consistently found that both bullies and those bullied demonstrate poorer psychosocial functioning than their noninvolved peers. Youth who bully others tend to demonstrate higher levels of conduct problems and dislike of school, whereas youth who are bullied generally show higher levels of insecurity, anxiety, depression, loneliness, unhappiness, physical and mental symptoms, and low self-esteem.1–4,8,15–25 Males who are bullied also tend to be physically weaker than males in general.2 The few studies that have examined the characteristics of youth who both bully and are bullied found that these individuals exhibit the poorest psychosocial functioning overall.15,17,19,26 The current research provides a foundation for an understanding of the bullying problem. However, it is insufficient to guide intervention and policy development. Moreover, little is known specifically about bullying among US youth.6 In one county-wide middle school survey, 24.1% of youth reported bullying others at least once in the past semester26; it is not known whether this is characteristic of the rest of the nation. The purpose of this study was to report the prevalence of bullying in a nationally representative sample of US youth in grades 6 through 10, along with information on differences in the prevalence of bullying by sex, grade, and race. In addition, the relationships among bullying, being bullied, and psychosocial adjustment are explored for 3 distinct groups: bullies only, those bullied only, and those who both bully and are bullied.

3,934 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
18 Apr 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The revised CONSORT statement as discussed by the authors is intended to improve the reporting of an RCT, enabling readers to understand a trial's conduct and to assess the validity of its results, which can be achieved only through complete transparency from authors.
Abstract: To comprehend the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT), readers must understand its design, conduct, analysis, and interpretation. That goal can be achieved only through complete transparency from authors. Despite several decades of educational efforts, the reporting of RCTs needs improvement. Investigators and editors developed the original CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement to help authors improve reporting by using a checklist and flow diagram. The revised CONSORT statement presented in this article incorporates new evidence and addresses some criticisms of the original statement. The checklist items pertain to the content of the Title, Abstract, Introduction, Methods, Results, and Comment. The revised checklist includes 22 items selected because empirical evidence indicates that not reporting the information is associated with biased estimates of treatment effect or because the information is essential to judge the reliability or relevance of the findings. We intended the flow diagram to depict the passage of participants through an RCT. The revised flow diagram depicts information from 4 stages of a trial (enrollment, intervention allocation, follow-up, and analysis). The diagram explicitly includes the number of participants, according to each intervention group, included in the primary data analysis. Inclusion of these numbers allows the reader to judge whether the authors have performed an intention-to-treat analysis. In sum, the CONSORT statement is intended to improve the reporting of an RCT, enabling readers to understand a trial's conduct and to assess the validity of its results.

2,955 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
12 Sep 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The prevalence of obesity and diabetes continues to increase among US adults, and interventions are needed to improve physical activity and diet in communities nationwide.
Abstract: ContextRecent reports show that obesity and diabetes have increased in the United States in the past decade.ObjectiveTo estimate the prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and use of weight control strategies among US adults in 2000.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThe Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a random-digit telephone survey conducted in all states in 2000, with 184 450 adults aged 18 years or older.Main Outcome MeasuresBody mass index (BMI), calculated from self-reported weight and height; self-reported diabetes; prevalence of weight loss or maintenance attempts; and weight control strategies used.ResultsIn 2000, the prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) was 19.8%, the prevalence of diabetes was 7.3%, and the prevalence of both combined was 2.9%. Mississippi had the highest rates of obesity (24.3%) and of diabetes (8.8%); Colorado had the lowest rate of obesity (13.8%); and Alaska had the lowest rate of diabetes (4.4%). Twenty-seven percent of US adults did not engage in any physical activity, and another 28.2% were not regularly active. Only 24.4% of US adults consumed fruits and vegetables 5 or more times daily. Among obese participants who had had a routine checkup during the past year, 42.8% had been advised by a health care professional to lose weight. Among participants trying to lose or maintain weight, 17.5% were following recommendations to eat fewer calories and increase physical activity to more than 150 min/wk.ConclusionsThe prevalence of obesity and diabetes continues to increase among US adults. Interventions are needed to improve physical activity and diet in communities nationwide.

2,779 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
05 Dec 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The CAM-ICU appears to be rapid, valid, and reliable for diagnosing delirium in the ICU setting and may be a useful instrument for both clinical and research purposes.
Abstract: ContextDelirium is a common problem in the intensive care unit (ICU). Accurate diagnosis is limited by the difficulty of communicating with mechanically ventilated patients and by lack of a validated delirium instrument for use in the ICU.ObjectivesTo validate a delirium assessment instrument that uses standardized nonverbal assessments for mechanically ventilated patients and to determine the occurrence rate of delirium in such patients.Design and SettingProspective cohort study testing the Confusion Assessment Method for ICU Patients (CAM-ICU) in the adult medical and coronary ICUs of a US university-based medical center.ParticipantsA total of 111 consecutive patients who were mechanically ventilated were enrolled from February 1, 2000, to July 15, 2000, of whom 96 (86.5%) were evaluable for the development of delirium and 15 (13.5%) were excluded because they remained comatose throughout the investigation.Main Outcome MeasuresOccurrence rate of delirium and sensitivity, specificity, and interrater reliability of delirium assessments using the CAM-ICU, made daily by 2 critical care study nurses, compared with assessments by delirium experts using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria.ResultsA total of 471 daily paired evaluations were completed. Compared with the reference standard for diagnosing delirium, 2 study nurses using the CAM-ICU had sensitivities of 100% and 93%, specificities of 98% and 100%, and high interrater reliability (κ = 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.99). Interrater reliability measures across subgroup comparisons showed κ values of 0.92 for those aged 65 years or older, 0.99 for those with suspected dementia, or 0.94 for those with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores at or above the median value of 23 (all P<.001). Comparing sensitivity and specificity between patient subgroups according to age, suspected dementia, or severity of illness showed no significant differences. The mean (SD) CAM-ICU administration time was 2 (1) minutes. Reference standard diagnoses of delirium, stupor, and coma occurred in 25.2%, 21.3%, and 28.5% of all observations, respectively. Delirium occurred in 80 (83.3%) patients during their ICU stay for a mean (SD) of 2.4 (1.6) days. Delirium was even present in 39.5% of alert or easily aroused patient observations by the reference standard and persisted in 10.4% of patients at hospital discharge.ConclusionsDelirium, a complication not currently monitored in the ICU setting, is extremely common in mechanically ventilated patients. The CAM-ICU appears to be rapid, valid, and reliable for diagnosing delirium in the ICU setting and may be a useful instrument for both clinical and research purposes.

2,541 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
19 Sep 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The results demonstrate that underdiagnosis of PAD in primary care practice may be a barrier to effective secondary prevention of the high ischemic cardiovascular risk associated with PAD.
Abstract: ContextPeripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a manifestation of systemic atherosclerosis that is common and is associated with an increased risk of death and ischemic events, yet may be underdiagnosed in primary care practice.ObjectiveTo assess the feasibility of detecting PAD in primary care clinics, patient and physician awareness of PAD, and intensity of risk factor treatment and use of antiplatelet therapies in primary care clinics.Design and SettingThe PAD Awareness, Risk, and Treatment: New Resources for Survival (PARTNERS) program, a multicenter, cross-sectional study conducted at 27 sites in 25 cities and 350 primary care practices throughout the United States in June-October 1999.PatientsA total of 6979 patients aged 70 years or older or aged 50 through 69 years with history of cigarette smoking or diabetes were evaluated by history and by measurement of the ankle-brachial index (ABI). PAD was considered present if the ABI was 0.90 or less, if it was documented in the medical record, or if there was a history of limb revascularization. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was defined as a history of atherosclerotic coronary, cerebral, or abdominal aortic aneurysmal disease.Main Outcome MeasuresFrequency of detection of PAD; physician and patient awareness of PAD diagnosis; treatment intensity in PAD patients compared with treatment of other forms of CVD and with patients without clinical evidence of atherosclerosis.ResultsPAD was detected in 1865 patients (29%); 825 of these (44%) had PAD only, without evidence of CVD. Overall, 13% had PAD only, 16% had PAD and CVD, 24% had CVD only, and 47% had neither PAD nor CVD (the reference group). There were 457 patients (55%) with newly diagnosed PAD only and 366 (35%) with PAD and CVD who were newly diagnosed during the survey. Eighty-three percent of patients with prior PAD were aware of their diagnosis, but only 49% of physicians were aware of this diagnosis. Among patients with PAD, classic claudication was distinctly uncommon (11%). Patients with PAD had similar atherosclerosis risk factor profiles compared with those who had CVD. Smoking behavior was more frequently treated in patients with new (53%) and prior PAD (51%) only than in those with CVD only (35%; P <.001). Hypertension was treated less frequently in new (84%) and prior PAD (88%) only vs CVD only (95%; P <.001) and hyperlipidemia was treated less frequently in new (44%) and prior PAD (56%) only vs CVD only (73%, P<.001). Antiplatelet medications were prescribed less often in patients with new (33%) and prior PAD (54%) only vs CVD only (71%, P<.001). Treatment intensity for diabetes and use of hormone replacement therapy in women were similar across all groups.ConclusionsPrevalence of PAD in primary care practices is high, yet physician awareness of the PAD diagnosis is relatively low. A simple ABI measurement identified a large number of patients with previously unrecognized PAD. Atherosclerosis risk factors were very prevalent in PAD patients, but these patients received less intensive treatment for lipid disorders and hypertension and were prescribed antiplatelet therapy less frequently than were patients with CVD. These results demonstrate that underdiagnosis of PAD in primary care practice may be a barrier to effective secondary prevention of the high ischemic cardiovascular risk associated with PAD.

2,446 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
25 Jul 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The results indicate that any degree of albuminuria is a risk factor for CV events in individuals with or without DM; the risk increases with the ACR, starting well below the microalbuminuria cutoff.
Abstract: ContextMicroalbuminuria is a risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. The relationship between the degree of albuminuria and CV risk is unclear.ObjectivesTo estimate the risk of CV events in high-risk individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM) and without DM who have microalbuminuria and to determine whether levels of albuminuria below the microalbuminuria threshold increase CV risk.DesignThe Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation study, a cohort study conducted between 1994 and 1999 with a median 4.5 years of follow-up.SettingCommunity and academic practices in North and South America and Europe.ParticipantsIndividuals aged 55 years or more with a history of CV disease (n = 5545) or DM and at least 1 CV risk factor (n = 3498) and a baseline urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) measurement.Main Outcome MeasuresCardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or CV death); all-cause death; and hospitalization for congestive heart failure.ResultsMicroalbuminuria was detected in 1140 (32.6%) of those with DM and 823 (14.8%) of those without DM at baseline. Microalbuminuria increased the adjusted relative risk (RR) of major CV events (RR, 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.64-2.05), all-cause death (RR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.84-2.38), and hospitalization for congestive heart failure (RR, 3.23; 95% CI, 2.54-4.10). Similar RRs were seen for participants with or without DM, even after adjusting for other CV risk factors (eg, the adjusted RR of the primary aggregate end point was 1.97 [95% CI, 1.68-2.31] in those with DM and 1.61 [95% CI, 1.36-1.90] in those without DM).Compared with the lowest quartile of ACR (<0.22 mg/mmol), the RRs of the primary aggregate end point in the second quartile (ie, ACR range, 0.22-0.57 mg/mmol) was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.95-1.30); third quartile, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.19-1.60; ACR range, 0.58-1.62 mg/mmol); and fourth quartile, 1.97 (95% CI, 1.73-2.25; ACR range, >1.62 mg/mmol) (P for trend <.001, even after excluding those with microalbuminuria). For every 0.4-mg/mmol increase in ACR level, the adjusted hazard of major CV events increased by 5.9% (95% CI, 4.9%-7.0%).ConclusionsOur results indicate that any degree of albuminuria is a risk factor for CV events in individuals with or without DM; the risk increases with the ACR, starting well below the microalbuminuria cutoff. Screening for albuminuria identifies people at high risk for CV events.

2,273 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
04 Apr 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Effects of atorvastatin on early recurrent ischemic events in acute coronary syndromes and the MIRACL study are studied.
Abstract: Effects of atorvastatin on early recurrent ischemic events in acute coronary syndromes. The MIRACL study : A randomized controlled trial.

Journal ArticleDOI
10 Oct 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the usefulness of repeated measurement of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score for prediction of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients.
Abstract: ContextEvaluation of trends in organ dysfunction in critically ill patients may help predict outcome.ObjectiveTo determine the usefulness of repeated measurement the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score for prediction of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients.DesignProspective, observational cohort study conducted from April 1 to July 31, 1999.SettingA 31-bed medicosurgical ICU at a university hospital in Belgium.PatientsThree hundred fifty-two consecutive patients (mean age, 59 years) admitted to the ICU for more than 24 hours for whom the SOFA score was calculated on admission and every 48 hours until discharge.Main Outcome MeasuresInitial SOFA score (0-24), Δ-SOFA scores (differences between subsequent scores), and the highest and mean SOFA scores obtained during the ICU stay and their correlations with mortality.ResultsThe initial, highest, and mean SOFA scores correlated well with mortality. Initial and highest scores of more than 11 or mean scores of more than 5 corresponded to mortality of more than 80%. The predictive value of the mean score was independent of the length of ICU stay. In univariate analysis, mean and highest SOFA scores had the strongest correlation with mortality, followed by Δ-SOFA and initial SOFA scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was largest for highest scores (0.90; SE, 0.02; P<.001 vs initial score). When analyzing trends in the SOFA score during the first 96 hours, regardless of the initial score, the mortality rate was at least 50% when the score increased, 27% to 35% when it remained unchanged, and less than 27% when it decreased. Differences in mortality were better predicted in the first 48 hours than in the subsequent 48 hours. There was no significant difference in the length of stay among these groups. Except for initial scores of more than 11 (mortality rate >90%), a decreasing score during the first 48 hours was associated with a mortality rate of less than 6%, while an unchanged or increasing score was associated with a mortality rate of 37% when the initial score was 2 to 7 and 60% when the initial score was 8 to 11.ConclusionsSequential assessment of organ dysfunction during the first few days of ICU admission is a good indicator of prognosis. Both the mean and highest SOFA scores are particularly useful predictors of outcome. Independent of the initial score, an increase in SOFA score during the first 48 hours in the ICU predicts a mortality rate of at least 50%.

Journal ArticleDOI
11 Jul 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The sex-specific Framingham CHD prediction functions perform well among whites and blacks in different settings and can be applied to other ethnic groups after recalibration for differing prevalences of risk factors and underlying rates of CHD events.
Abstract: Context The Framingham Heart Study produced sex-specific coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction functions for assessing risk of developing incident CHD in a white middle-class population. Concern exists regarding whether these functions can be generalized to other populations. Objective To test the validity and transportability of the Framingham CHD prediction functions per a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute workshop organized for this purpose. Design, Setting, and Subjects Sex-specific CHD functions were derived from Framingham data for prediction of coronary death and myocardial infarction. These functions were applied to 6 prospectively studied, ethnically diverse cohorts (n = 23 424), including whites, blacks, Native Americans, Japanese American men, and Hispanic men: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (1987-1988), Physicians' Health Study (1982), Honolulu Heart Program (1980-1982), Puerto Rico Heart Health Program (1965-1968), Strong Heart Study (1989-1991), and Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1990). Main Outcome Measures The performance, or ability to accurately predict CHD risk, of the Framingham functions compared with the performance of risk functions developed specifically from the individual cohorts' data. Comparisons included evaluation of the equality of relative risks for standard CHD risk factors, discrimination, and calibration. Results For white men and women and for black men and women the Framingham functions performed reasonably well for prediction of CHD events within 5 years of follow-up. Among Japanese American and Hispanic men and Native American women, the Framingham functions systematically overestimated the risk of 5-year CHD events. After recalibration, taking into account different prevalences of risk factors and underlying rates of developing CHD, the Framingham functions worked well in these populations. Conclusions The sex-specific Framingham CHD prediction functions perform well among whites and blacks in different settings and can be applied to other ethnic groups after recalibration for differing prevalences of risk factors and underlying rates of CHD events.


Journal ArticleDOI
26 Dec 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: A powerful graded relationship exists between adverse childhood experiences and risk of attempted suicide throughout the life span, and alcoholism, depressed affect, and illicit drug use, which are strongly associated with such experiences, appear to partially mediate this relationship.
Abstract: ContextSuicide is a leading cause of death in the United States, but identifying persons at risk is difficult. Thus, the US surgeon general has made suicide prevention a national priority. An expanding body of research suggests that childhood trauma and adverse experiences can lead to a variety of negative health outcomes, including attempted suicide among adolescents and adults.ObjectiveTo examine the relationship between the risk of suicide attempts and adverse childhood experiences and the number of such experiences (adverse childhood experiences [ACE] score).Design, Setting, and ParticipantsA retrospective cohort study of 17 337 adult health maintenance organization members (54% female; mean [SD] age, 57 [15.3] years) who attended a primary care clinic in San Diego, Calif, within a 3-year period (1995-1997) and completed a survey about childhood abuse and household dysfunction, suicide attempts (including age at first attempt), and multiple other health-related issues.Main Outcome MeasureSelf-reported suicide attempts, compared by number of adverse childhood experiences, including emotional, physical, and sexual abuse; household substance abuse, mental illness, and incarceration; and parental domestic violence, separation, or divorce.ResultsThe lifetime prevalence of having at least 1 suicide attempt was 3.8%. Adverse childhood experiences in any category increased the risk of attempted suicide 2- to 5-fold. The ACE score had a strong, graded relationship to attempted suicide during childhood/adolescence and adulthood (P<.001). Compared with persons with no such experiences (prevalence of attempted suicide, 1.1%), the adjusted odds ratio of ever attempting suicide among persons with 7 or more experiences (35.2%) was 31.1 (95% confidence interval, 20.6-47.1). Adjustment for illicit drug use, depressed affect, and self-reported alcoholism reduced the strength of the relationship between the ACE score and suicide attempts, suggesting partial mediation of the adverse childhood experience–suicide attempt relationship by these factors. The population-attributable risk fractions for 1 or more experiences were 67%, 64%, and 80% for lifetime, adult, and childhood/adolescent suicide attempts, respectively.ConclusionsA powerful graded relationship exists between adverse childhood experiences and risk of attempted suicide throughout the life span. Alcoholism, depressed affect, and illicit drug use, which are strongly associated with such experiences, appear to partially mediate this relationship. Because estimates of the attributable risk fraction caused by these experiences were large, prevention of these experiences and the treatment of persons affected by them may lead to progress in suicide prevention.

Journal ArticleDOI
25 Apr 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Medication errors are common in pediatric inpatient settings, and further efforts are needed to reduce them.
Abstract: ContextIatrogenic injuries, including medication errors, are an important problem in all hospitalized populations. However, few epidemiological data are available regarding medication errors in the pediatric inpatient setting.ObjectivesTo assess the rates of medication errors, adverse drug events (ADEs), and potential ADEs; to compare pediatric rates with previously reported adult rates; to analyze the major types of errors; and to evaluate the potential impact of prevention strategies.Design, Setting, and PatientsProspective cohort study of 1120 patients admitted to 2 academic institutions during 6 weeks in April and May of 1999.Main Outcome MeasuresMedication errors, potential ADEs, and ADEs were identified by clinical staff reports and review of medication order sheets, medication administration records, and patient charts.ResultsWe reviewed 10 778 medication orders and found 616 medication errors (5.7%), 115 potential ADEs (1.1%), and 26 ADEs (0.24%). Of the 26 ADEs, 5 (19%) were preventable. While the preventable ADE rate was similar to that of a previous adult hospital study, the potential ADE rate was 3 times higher. The rate of potential ADEs was significantly higher in neonates in the neonatal intensive care unit. Most potential ADEs occurred at the stage of drug ordering (79%) and involved incorrect dosing (34%), anti-infective drugs (28%), and intravenous medications (54%). Physician reviewers judged that computerized physician order entry could potentially have prevented 93% and ward-based clinical pharmacists 94% of potential ADEs.ConclusionsMedication errors are common in pediatric inpatient settings, and further efforts are needed to reduce them.

Journal ArticleDOI
17 Jan 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The data indicate that women who develop a vertebral fracture are at substantial risk for additional fracture within the next year, and the presence of prevalent vertebral fractures increases this risk.
Abstract: ContextVertebral fractures significantly increase lifetime risk of future fractures, but risk of further vertebral fractures in the period immediately following a vertebral fracture has not been evaluated.ObjectiveTo determine the incidence of further vertebral fracture in the year following a vertebral fracture.Design and SettingAnalysis of data from 4 large 3-year osteoporosis treatment trials conducted at 373 study centers in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand from November 1993 to April 1998.SubjectsPostmenopausal women who had been randomized to a placebo group and for whom vertebral fracture status was known at entry (n = 2725).Main Outcome MeasureOccurrence of radiographically identified vertebral fracture during the year following an incident vertebral fracture.ResultsSubjects were a mean age of 74 years and had a mean of 28 years since menopause. The cumulative incidence of new vertebral fractures in the first year was 6.6%. Presence of 1 or more vertebral fractures at baseline increased risk of sustaining a vertebral fracture by 5-fold during the initial year of the study compared with the incidence in subjects without prevalent vertebral fractures at baseline (relative risk [RR], 5.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1-8.4; P<.001). Among the 381 participants who developed an incident vertebral fracture, the incidence of a new vertebral fracture in the subsequent year was 19.2% (95% CI, 13.6%-24.8%). This risk was also increased in the presence of prevalent vertebral fractures (RR, 9.3; 95% CI, 1.2-71.6; P = .03).ConclusionOur data indicate that women who develop a vertebral fracture are at substantial risk for additional fracture within the next year.

Journal ArticleDOI
21 Nov 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Every country can and should begin now to improve its efforts to treat people with mental illness, and 10 recommendations on how governments can strengthen their country’s mental health care are concluded.
Abstract: As I write these words in mid October I reflect on the way in which we have, during the past 4 weeks, expressed our shared grief in understanding, sympathy, and support for those affected by posttraumatic stress. We are reminded of the extraordinary ability of humans tocopewithextremesofemotion,tohelp each other, and to handle fear, pain, and loss. We work together to preserve our mental health. We see nothing wrong, or mysterious, in our coping mechanisms. But we do not expect people to have to cope alone, in isolation. We understandtheneedforhelpandguidance. As health care professionals, we know that mental illness is not a personal failure. If there is failure, it is in the way society in general and the health sector in particular have responded to people with mental and neurological disorders. By separating mental health care from physical health care—and often separating those who have mental illness from society—the health care profession has reinforced stigma, making successful treatment much harder. I see this as a time of opportunity for change, and I agree strongly with an earlier JOURNAL article by US Surgeon General David Satcher ( JAMA. 2001; 285:1697). Every country can and should begin now to improve its efforts to treat people with mental illness. A recent WHO global survey of mental health policy issues, Atlas of Mental HealthResources in theWorld2001 (http:// www.who.int/mental health/Publication Pages/Pubs 2001.html), found that 40% of the 185 countries surveyed have no national mental health policy, 30% have no programs to improve mental health conditions, and 25% have no specific mental health legislation. Well over one third (37%) of the countries have no community care facilities. The global toll of mental illness and neurological disorders is staggering. Neuropsychiatric disorders account for 31% of the disability in the world— and they affect rich and poor nations and individuals alike. According to the World Health Report 2001, Mental Health: New Understanding, New Hope (http://www.who.int/whr/), 450 million people have a mental or neurological disorder. Of these, 121 million have depression and 50 million have epilepsy. Every year, 1 million people commit suicide and 10 million to 20 million attempt suicide. A great deal of this suffering is unnecessary. We know, for instance, that 60% of those with major depression can fully recover if treated. However, in both industrialized and developing countries, less than 25% of those affected receive treatment, for reasons that include stigma, discrimination, scarce resources, lack of skills in primary health care, and deficient public health policies. The treatment gap is similar or greater for many other easily treatable mental and neurological disorders. Because people do not get the care they need, these disorders impose a range of social and economic costs on individuals, households, employers, and society, ranging from the cost of care to the cost of lost productivity. Solutions based on scientific evidence are available and affordable. Through recent advances in neuroscience, neuroimaging, genetics, and behavioral sciences, we know more about brain functioning and behavior than ever before. Breakthroughs in therapy and medication have occurred. In the World Health Report 2001, WHO summarizes current knowledge about mental and neurological disorders: the global burden, current level of care, latest knowledge about causes and treatment, and ongoing efforts to reform mental health care. The report concludes with 10 recommendations on how governments can strengthen their country’s mental health care: • provide treatment for mental disorders within primary care; • ensure that psychotropic drugs are available; • replace large custodial hospitals with community care facilities backed by general hospital psychiatric beds and home care support; • launch public awareness campaigns to overcome stigma and discrimination; • involve communities, families, and consumers in decision making on policies and services; • establish national policies, programs, and legislation; • train mental health professionals; • link mental health with other social sectors; • monitor community mental health; and • support more research. The report outlines three scenarios to help guide countries and population groups, depending on the resources available and the current status of mental health care in each country. Regarding treatment, for example, if even the poorest countries could ensure that the five most needed psychotropic drugs were available in all health care settings, we could ease the suffering of millions of people. If many middle-income countries could use the experiences of others as a guide and initiate pilot projects for community care, parts of or entire custodial institutions could be shut down, and the financial savings could strengthen further community care activities. If some of the richest countries could review their health care financing rules to ensure parity between mental and physical health problems, a major obstacle to treatment could be removed. We need to speed up and strengthen care for the mentally ill. —Gro Harlem Brundtland, MD, MPH Director-General World Health Organization FROM THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION

Journal ArticleDOI
12 Sep 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Exercise training reduces HbA1c by an amount that should decrease the risk of diabetic complications, but no significantly greater change in body mass was found when exercise groups were compared with control groups.
Abstract: ContextExercise is widely perceived to be beneficial for glycemic control and weight loss in patients with type 2 diabetes. However, clinical trials on the effects of exercise in patients with type 2 diabetes have had small sample sizes and conflicting results.ObjectiveTo systematically review and quantify the effect of exercise on glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and body mass in patients with type 2 diabetes.Data SourcesDatabase searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Sport Discuss, Health Star, Dissertation Abstracts, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register for the period up to and including December 2000. Additional data sources included bibliographies of textbooks and articles identified by the database searches.Study SelectionWe selected studies that evaluated the effects of exercise interventions (duration ≥8 weeks) in adults with type 2 diabetes. Fourteen (11 randomized and 3 nonrandomized) controlled trials were included. Studies that included drug cointerventions were excluded.Data ExtractionTwo reviewers independently extracted baseline and postintervention means and SDs for the intervention and control groups. The characteristics of the exercise interventions and the methodological quality of the trials were also extracted.Data SynthesisTwelve aerobic training studies (mean [SD], 3.4 [0.9] times/week for 18 [15] weeks) and 2 resistance training studies (mean [SD], 10 [0.7] exercises, 2.5 [0.7] sets, 13 [0.7] repetitions, 2.5 [0.4] times/week for 15 [10] weeks) were included in the analyses. The weighted mean postintervention HbA1c was lower in the exercise groups compared with the control groups (7.65% vs 8.31%; weighted mean difference, −0.66%; P<.001). The difference in postintervention body mass between exercise groups and control groups was not significant (83.02 kg vs 82.48 kg; weighted mean difference, 0.54; P = .76).ConclusionExercise training reduces HbA1c by an amount that should decrease the risk of diabetic complications, but no significantly greater change in body mass was found when exercise groups were compared with control groups.

Journal ArticleDOI
28 Feb 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: People potentially exposed to botulinum toxin should be closely observed, and those with signs of botulism require prompt treatment with antitoxin and supportive care that may include assisted ventilation for weeks or months.
Abstract: ObjectiveThe Working Group on Civilian Biodefense has developed consensus-based recommendations for measures to be taken by medical and public health professionals if botulinum toxin is used as a biological weapon against a civilian population.ParticipantsThe working group included 23 representatives from academic, government, and private institutions with expertise in public health, emergency management, and clinical medicine.EvidenceThe primary authors (S.S.A. and R.S.) searched OLDMEDLINE and MEDLINE (1960–March 1999) and their professional collections for literature concerning use of botulinum toxin as a bioweapon. The literature was reviewed, and opinions were sought from the working group and other experts on diagnosis and management of botulism. Additional MEDLINE searches were conducted through April 2000 during the review and revisions of the consensus statement.Consensus ProcessThe first draft of the working group's consensus statement was a synthesis of information obtained in the formal evidence-gathering process. The working group convened to review the first draft in May 1999. Working group members reviewed subsequent drafts and suggested additional revisions. The final statement incorporates all relevant evidence obtained in the literature search in conjunction with final consensus recommendations supported by all working group members.ConclusionsAn aerosolized or foodborne botulinum toxin weapon would cause acute symmetric, descending flaccid paralysis with prominent bulbar palsies such as diplopia, dysarthria, dysphonia, and dysphagia that would typically present 12 to 72 hours after exposure. Effective response to a deliberate release of botulinum toxin will depend on timely clinical diagnosis, case reporting, and epidemiological investigation. Persons potentially exposed to botulinum toxin should be closely observed, and those with signs of botulism require prompt treatment with antitoxin and supportive care that may include assisted ventilation for weeks or months. Treatment with antitoxin should not be delayed for microbiological testing.

Journal ArticleDOI
24 Jan 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The authors' experimental intervention increased the duration and degree (exclusivity) of breastfeeding and decreased the risk of gastrointestinal tract infection and atopic eczema in the first year of life.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the objectives, design, follow-up, and data validation of a cluster-randomized trial of a breastfeeding promotion intervention modeled on the WHO/UNICEF Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI). Thirty-four hospitals and their affiliated polyclinics in the Republic of Belarus were randomized to receive BFHI training of medical, midwifery, and nursing staffs (experimental group) or to continue their routine practices (control group). All breastfeeding mother-infant dyads were considered eligible for inclusion in the study if the infant was singleton, bom at 237 weeks gestation, weighed ≥2500 grams at birth, and had a 5-minute Apgar score ≥5, and neither mother nor infant had a medical condition for which breastfeeding was contraindicated. One experimental and one control site refused to accept their randomized allocation and dropped out of the trial. A total of 17,795 mothers were recruited at the 32 remaining sites, and their infants were followed up at 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of age. To our knowledge, this is the largest randomized trial ever undertaken in area of human milk and lactation. Monitoring visits of all experimental and control maternity hospitals and polyclinics were undertaken prior to recruitment and twice more during recruitment and follow-up to ensure compliance with the randomized allocation. Major study outcomes include the occurrence of ≥1 episode of gastrointestinal infection, ≥2 respiratory infections, and the duration of breastfeeding, and are analyzed according to randomized allocation (“intention to treat”). One of the 32 remaining study sites was dropped from the trial because of apparently falsified follow-up data, as suggested by an unrealistically low incidence of infection and unrealistically long duration of breastfeeding, and as confirmed by subsequent data audit of polyclinic charts and interviews with mothers of 64 randomly-selected study infants at the site. Smaller random audits at each of the remaining sites showed extremely high concordance between the PROBIT data forms and both the polyclinic charts and maternal interviews, with no evident difference in under- or over-reporting in experimental vs control sites. Of the 17,046 infants recruited from the 31 participating study sites, 16,491 (96.7%) completed the study and only 555 (3.3%) were lost to follow-up. PROBIT’s results should help inform decision making for clinicians, hospitals, industry, and governments concerning the support, protection, and promotion of breastfeeding.

Journal ArticleDOI
04 Jul 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: In this prospective trial, pravastatin reduced CRP levels at both 12 and 24 weeks in a largely LDL-C-independent manner, providing evidence that statins may have anti-inflammatory effects in addition to lipid-lowering effects.
Abstract: ContextPlasma levels of the inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP) predict cardiovascular risk, and retrospective studies suggest that 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) may lower CRP in a manner largely independent of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). However, prospective trial data directly evaluating this anti-inflammatory effect of statins are not available.ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that pravastatin has anti-inflammatory effects as evidenced by CRP reduction.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsCommunity-based, prospective, randomized, double-blind trial including 1702 men and women with no prior history of cardiovascular disease (primary prevention cohort) and open-label study including 1182 patients with known cardiovascular disease (secondary prevention cohort) who provided at least baseline and 12-week blood samples. The study was conducted in US office-based practices from February to December 2000.InterventionsParticipants in the double-blind primary prevention trial were randomly assigned to receive 40 mg/d of pravastatin (n = 865) or placebo (n = 837) for 24 weeks. Participants in the secondary prevention cohort received 40 mg/d of open-label pravastatin for 24 weeks.Main Outcome MeasureChange in CRP levels from baseline to 24 weeks.ResultsIn the primary prevention trial, compared with placebo, pravastatin reduced median CRP levels by 16.9% (P<.001) at 24 weeks, reflecting a decrease of 0.02 mg/dL in the pravastatin group while no change in CRP levels was observed in the placebo group. This effect was seen as early as 12 weeks (median reduction in CRP with pravastatin, 14.7%; P<.001) and was present among all prespecified subgroups according to sex, age, smoking status, body mass index, baseline lipid levels, presence of diabetes, and use of aspirin or hormone replacement therapy. No significant association was observed between baseline CRP and baseline LDL-C levels, end-of-study CRP and end-of-study LDL-C levels, or change in CRP and change in LDL-C levels over time. In linear regression analyses, the only significant predictors of change in CRP on a log scale were randomized pravastatin allocation and baseline CRP levels (P<.001 for both). Similar reductions in CRP levels were observed at 12 weeks (−14.3%) and 24 weeks (−13.1%) in the secondary prevention cohort treated with pravastatin (P<.005 for both).ConclusionsIn this prospective trial, pravastatin reduced CRP levels at both 12 and 24 weeks in a largely LDL-C–independent manner. These data provide evidence that statins may have anti-inflammatory effects in addition to lipid-lowering effects.

Journal ArticleDOI
22 Aug 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The results from VIGOR showed that the relative risk of developing a confirmed adjudicated thrombotic cardiovascular event with rofecoxib treatment compared with naproxen was higher than that in the placebo group of a recent meta-analysis of 23 407 patients in primary prevention trials.
Abstract: Atherosclerosis is a process with inflammatory features and selective cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2) inhibitors may potentially have antiatherogenic effects by virtue of inhibiting inflammation. However, by decreasing vasodilatory and antiaggregatory prostacyclin production, COX-2 antagonists may lead to increased prothrombotic activity. To define the cardiovascular effects of COX-2 inhibitors when used for arthritis and musculoskeletal pain in patients without coronary artery disease, we performed a MEDLINE search to identify all English-language articles on use of COX-2 inhibitors published between 1998 and February 2001. We also reviewed relevant submissions to the US Food and Drug Administration by pharmaceutical companies.Our search yielded 2 major randomized trials, the Vioxx Gastrointestinal Outcomes Research Study (VIGOR; 8076 patients) and the Celecoxib Long-term Arthritis Safety Study (CLASS; 8059 patients), as well as 2 smaller trials with approximately 1000 patients each. The results from VIGOR showed that the relative risk of developing a confirmed adjudicated thrombotic cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, unstable angina, cardiac thrombus, resuscitated cardiac arrest, sudden or unexplained death, ischemic stroke, and transient ischemic attacks) with rofecoxib treatment compared with naproxen was 2.38 (95% confidence interval, 1.39-4.00; P = .002). There was no significant difference in cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, stroke, and death) rates between celecoxib and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents in CLASS. The annualized myocardial infarction rates for COX-2 inhibitors in both VIGOR and CLASS were significantly higher than that in the placebo group of a recent meta-analysis of 23 407 patients in primary prevention trials (0.52%): 0.74% with rofecoxib (P = .04 compared with the placebo group of the meta-analysis) and 0.80% with celecoxib (P = .02 compared with the placebo group of the meta-analysis).The available data raise a cautionary flag about the risk of cardiovascular events with COX-2 inhibitors. Further prospective trial evaluation may characterize and determine the magnitude of the risk.

Journal ArticleDOI
Rita Charon1
17 Oct 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: By bridging the divides that separate physicians from patients, themselves, colleagues, and society, narrative medicine offers fresh opportunities for respectful, empathic, and nourishing medical care.
Abstract: The effective practice of medicine requires narrative competence, that is, the ability to acknowledge, absorb, interpret, and act on the stories and plights of others. Medicine practiced with narrative competence, called narrative medicine, is proposed as a model for humane and effective medical practice. Adopting methods such as close reading of literature and reflective writing allows narrative medicine to examine and illuminate 4 of medicine's central narrative situations: physician and patient, physician and self, physician and colleagues, and physicians and society. With narrative competence, physicians can reach and join their patients in illness, recognize their own personal journeys through medicine, acknowledge kinship with and duties toward other health care professionals, and inaugurate consequential discourse with the public about health care. By bridging the divides that separate physicians from patients, themselves, colleagues, and society, narrative medicine offers fresh opportunities for respectful, empathic, and nourishing medical care.

Journal ArticleDOI
11 Jul 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: This is the first demonstration that in primary knee OA varus alignment increases risk of medial OA progression, that valgus alignment increased risk of lateral OA progress, that burden of malalignment predicts decline in physical function, and that these effects can be detected after as little as 18 months of observation.
Abstract: ContextKnee osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of disability in older persons. Few risk factors for disease progression or functional decline have been identified. Hip-knee-ankle alignment influences load distribution at the knee; varus and valgus alignment increase medial and lateral load, respectively.ObjectiveTo test the hypotheses that (1) varus alignment increases risk of medial knee OA progression during the subsequent 18 months, (2) valgus alignment increases risk of subsequent lateral knee OA progression, (3) greater severity of malalignment is associated with greater subsequent loss of joint space, and (4) greater burden of malalignment is associated with greater subsequent decline in physical function.Design and SettingProspective longitudinal cohort study conducted March 1997 to March 2000 at an academic medical center in Chicago, Ill.ParticipantsA total of 237 persons recruited from the community with primary knee OA, defined by presence of definite tibiofemoral osteophytes and at least some difficulty with knee-requiring activity; 230 (97%) completed the study.Main Outcome MeasuresProgression of OA, defined as a 1-grade increase in severity of joint space narrowing on semiflexed, fluoroscopically confirmed knee radiographs; change in narrowest joint space width; and change in physical function between baseline and 18 months, compared by knee alignment at baseline.ResultsVarus alignment at baseline was associated with a 4-fold increase in the odds of medial progression, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.20-7.62). Valgus alignment at baseline was associated with a nearly 5-fold increase in the odds of lateral progression (adjusted OR, 4.89; 95% CI, 2.13-11.20). Severity of varus correlated with greater medial joint space loss during the subsequent 18 months (R = 0.52; 95% CI, 0.40-0.62 in dominant knees), and severity of valgus correlated with greater subsequent lateral joint space loss (R = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.21-0.47 in dominant knees). Having alignment of more than 5° (in either direction) in both knees at baseline was associated with significantly greater functional deterioration during the 18 months than having alignment of 5° or less in both knees, after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and pain.ConclusionThis is, to our knowledge, the first demonstration that in primary knee OA varus alignment increases risk of medial OA progression, that valgus alignment increases risk of lateral OA progression, that burden of malalignment predicts decline in physical function, and that these effects can be detected after as little as 18 months of observation.

Journal ArticleDOI
06 Jun 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: The Working Group on Civilian Biodefense has developed consensus-based recommendations for measures to be taken by medical and public health professionals if tularemia is used as a biological weapon against a civilian population.
Abstract: ObjectiveThe Working Group on Civilian Biodefense has developed consensus-based recommendations for measures to be taken by medical and public health professionals if tularemia is used as a biological weapon against a civilian population.ParticipantsThe working group included 25 representatives from academic medical centers, civilian and military governmental agencies, and other public health and emergency management institutions and agencies.EvidenceMEDLINE databases were searched from January 1966 to October 2000, using the Medical Subject Headings Francisella tularensis, Pasteurella tularensis, biological weapon, biological terrorism, bioterrorism, biological warfare, and biowarfare. Review of these references led to identification of relevant materials published prior to 1966. In addition, participants identified other references and sources.Consensus ProcessThree formal drafts of the statement that synthesized information obtained in the formal evidence-gathering process were reviewed by members of the working group. Consensus was achieved on the final draft.ConclusionsA weapon using airborne tularemia would likely result 3 to 5 days later in an outbreak of acute, undifferentiated febrile illness with incipient pneumonia, pleuritis, and hilar lymphadenopathy. Specific epidemiological, clinical, and microbiological findings should lead to early suspicion of intentional tularemia in an alert health system; laboratory confirmation of agent could be delayed. Without treatment, the clinical course could progress to respiratory failure, shock, and death. Prompt treatment with streptomycin, gentamicin, doxycycline, or ciprofloxacin is recommended. Prophylactic use of doxycycline or ciprofloxacin may be useful in the early postexposure period.

Journal ArticleDOI
17 Oct 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: High-dose antithrombin III therapy had no effect on 28-day all-cause mortality in adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock when administered within 6 hours after the onset and was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhage when administered with heparin.
Abstract: ContextActivation of the coagulation system and depletion of endogenous anticoagulants are frequently found in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Diffuse microthrombus formation may induce organ dysfunction and lead to excess mortality in septic shock. Antithrombin III may provide protection from multiorgan failure and improve survival in severely ill patients.ObjectiveTo determine if high-dose antithrombin III (administered within 6 hours of onset) would provide a survival advantage in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.Design and SettingDouble-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter phase 3 clinical trial in patients with severe sepsis (the KyberSept Trial) was conducted from March 1997 through January 2000.PatientsA total of 2314 adult patients were randomized into 2 equal groups of 1157 to receive either intravenous antithrombin III (30 000 IU in total over 4 days) or a placebo (1% human albumin).Main Outcome MeasureAll-cause mortality 28 days after initiation of study medication.ResultsOverall mortality at 28 days in the antithrombin III treatment group was 38.9% vs 38.7% in the placebo group (P = .94). Secondary end points, including mortality at 56 and 90 days and survival time in the intensive care unit, did not differ between the antithrombin III and placebo groups. In the subgroup of patients who did not receive concomitant heparin during the 4-day treatment phase (n = 698), the 28-day mortality was nonsignificantly lower in the antithrombin III group (37.8%) than in the placebo group (43.6%) (P = .08). This trend became significant after 90 days (n = 686; 44.9% for antithrombin III group vs 52.5% for placebo group; P = .03). In patients receiving antithrombin III and concomitant heparin, a significantly increased bleeding incidence was observed (23.8% for antithrombin III group vs 13.5% for placebo group; P<.001).ConclusionsHigh-dose antithrombin III therapy had no effect on 28-day all-cause mortality in adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock when administered within 6 hours after the onset. High-dose antithrombin III was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhage when administered with heparin. There was some evidence to suggest a treatment benefit of antithrombin III in the subgroup of patients not receiving concomitant heparin.


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Aug 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Data from both surveys indicate that physical and sexual dating violence against adolescent girls is associated with increased risk of substance use, unhealthy weight control, sexual risk behavior, pregnancy, and suicidality.
Abstract: ContextIntimate partner violence against women is a major public health concern. Research among adults has shown that younger age is a consistent risk factor for experiencing and perpetrating intimate partner violence. However, no representative epidemiologic studies of lifetime prevalence of dating violence among adolescents have been conducted.ObjectiveTo assess lifetime prevalence of physical and sexual violence from dating partners among adolescent girls and associations of these forms of violence with specific health risks.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsFemale 9th through 12th-grade students who participated in the 1997 and 1999 Massachusetts Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (n = 1977 and 2186, respectively).Main Outcome MeasuresLifetime prevalence rates of physical and sexual dating violence and whether such violence is independently associated with substance use, unhealthy weight control, sexual risk behavior, pregnancy, and suicidality.ResultsApproximately 1 in 5 female students (20.2% in 1997 and 18.0% in 1999) reported being physically and/or sexually abused by a dating partner. After controlling for the effects of potentially confounding demographics and risk behaviors, data from both surveys indicate that physical and sexual dating violence against adolescent girls is associated with increased risk of substance use (eg, cocaine use for 1997, odds ratio [OR], 4.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-9.6; for 1999, OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.7-6.7), unhealthy weight control behaviors (eg, use of laxatives and/or vomiting [for 1997, OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.8-5.5; for 1999, OR, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.2-6.5]), sexual risk behaviors (eg, first intercourse before age 15 years [for 1997, OR, 8.2; 95% CI, 5.1-13.4; for 1999, OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.2]), pregnancy (for 1997, OR, 6.3; 95% CI, 3.4-11.7; for 1999, OR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.9-7.8), and suicidality (eg, attempted suicide [for 1997, OR, 7.6; 95% CI, 4.7-12.3; for 1999, OR, 8.6; 95% CI, 5.2-14.4]).ConclusionDating violence is extremely prevalent among this population, and adolescent girls who report a history of experiencing dating violence are more likely to exhibit other serious health risk behaviors.

Journal ArticleDOI
12 Dec 2001-JAMA
TL;DR: Investigation of recent changes in the prevalence of overweight within a nationally representative sample of children found that childhood overweight continues to increase rapidly in the United States, particularly among African Americans and Hispanics.
Abstract: ContextOverweight is the most common health problem facing US children. Data for adults suggest that overweight prevalence has increased by more than 50% in the last 10 years. Data for children also suggest that the prevalence of overweight continues to increase rapidly.ObjectiveTo investigate recent changes in the prevalence of overweight within a nationally representative sample of children.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThe National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a prospective cohort study conducted from 1986 to 1998 among 8270 children aged 4 to 12 years (24 174 growth points were analyzed).Main Outcome MeasuresPrevalence of overweight children, defined as body mass index (BMI) greater than the 95th percentile for age and sex, and prevalence of overweight and at-risk children, defined as BMI greater than the 85th percentile for age and sex. The roles of race/ethnicity, sex, income, and region of residence were also examined.ResultsBetween 1986 and 1998, overweight increased significantly and steadily among African American (P<.001), Hispanic (P<.001), and white (P = .03) children. By 1998, overweight prevalence increased to 21.5% among African Americans, 21.8% among Hispanics, and 12.3% among non-Hispanic whites. In addition, overweight children were heavier in 1998 compared with 1986 (P<.001). After adjusting for confounding variables, overweight increased fastest among minorities and southerners, creating large demographic differences in the prevalence of childhood overweight by 1998. The number of children with BMI greater than the 85th percentile increased significantly from 1986 to 1998 among African American and Hispanic children (P<.001 for both) and nonsignificantly among white children (P = .77).ConclusionsChildhood overweight continues to increase rapidly in the United States, particularly among African Americans and Hispanics. Culturally competent treatment strategies as well as other policy interventions are required to increase physical activity and encourage healthy eating patterns among children.