Showing papers in "Journal of Applied Meteorology in 1995"

Climatological Characterization of Three-Dimensional Storm Structure from Operational Radar and Rain Gauge Data

Abstract: Three algorithms extract information on precipitation type, structure, and amount from operational radar and rain gauge data. Tests on one month of data from one site show that the algorithms perform accurately and provide products that characterize the essential features of the precipitation climatology. Input to the algorithms are the operationally executed volume scans of a radar and the data from a surrounding rain gauge network. The algorithms separate the radar echoes into convective and stratiform regions, statistically summarize the vertical structure of the radar echoes, and determine precipitation rates and amounts on high spatial resolution. The convective and stratiform regions are separated on the basis of the intensity and sharpness of the peaks of echo intensity. The peaks indicate the centers of the convective region. Precipitation not identified as convective is stratiform. This method avoids the problem of underestimating the stratiform precipitation. The separation criteria are...

Thermal remote sensing of surface soil water content with partial vegetation cover for incorporation into climate models

Abstract: This study outlines a method for the estimation of regional patterns of surface moisture availability (M(sub 0)) and fractional vegetation (Fr) in the presence of spatially variable vegetation cover. The method requires relating variations in satellite-derived (NOAA, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)) surface radiant temperature to a vegetation index (computed from satellite visible and near-infrared data) while coupling this association to an inverse modeling scheme. More than merely furnishing surface soil moisture values, the method constitues a new conceptual and practical approach for combining thermal infrared and vegetation index measurements for incorporating the derived values of M(sub 0) into hydrologic and atmospheric prediction models. Application of the technique is demonstrated for a region in and around the city of Newcastle upon Tyne situated in the northeast of England. A regional estimate of M(sub 0) is derived and is probabbly good for fractional vegetation cover up to 80% before errors in the estimated soil water content become unacceptably large. Moreover, a normalization scheme is suggested from which a nomogram, `universal triangle,' is constructed and is seen to fit the observed data well. The universal triangle also simplifies the inclusion of remotely derived M(sub 0) in hydrology and meteorological models and is perhaps a practicable step toward integrating derived data from satellite measurements in weather forecasting.

Interpolation Errors in Wind Fields as a Function of Spatial and Temporal Resolution and Their Impact on Different Types of Kinematic Trajectories

Abstract: This paper discusses some of the uncertainties that influence kinematic trajectory calculations. The interpolation errors due to different interpolation schemes are examined by degrading high-resolution wind fields from a numerical weather prediction model with respect to space and time. Under typical circumstances, the greatest errors are due to temporal interpolation, followed by horizontal and vertical interpolation. Relative errors in the vertical wind are higher than those in the horizontal wind components. These errors are quite substantial and severely affect the accuracy of trajectories. For instance, a decrease of the temporal resolution from 3 to 6 h leads to average relative interpolation errors of 16% in the horizontal wind components and 40% in the vertical wind component. These errors cause mean transport deviations of 280 km for two-dimensional model-level trajectories and 600 km for three-dimensional trajectories after 96-h travel time. The substantial deviations for three-dimensi...

Smart Interpolation of Annually Averaged Air Temperature in the United States

Abstract: Two “smart” interpolation procedures are presented and assessed with respect to their ability to estimate annual-average air temperatures at unsampled points in space from available station averages. Smart approaches examined here improve upon commonly used procedures in that they incorporate spatially high-resolution digital elevation information, an average environmental lapse rate, and/or another higher-resolution longer-term average temperature field. Two other straightforward or commonly used interpolation methods also are presented and evaluated as benchmarks to which the smart interpolators can be compared. Interpolation from a spatially high-resolution, long-term-average air temperature climatology serves as a first approximation, while “traditional” interpolation (from a single realization of annual average air temperature on a single station network) is the other benchmark. Traditional interpolation continues to be the most commonly used interpolation approach within many of the atmosph...

Backward-Time Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Models and Their Application to Estimate Gaseous Emissions

Abstract: “Backward” Lagrangian stochastic models calculate an ensemble of fluid element (particle) trajectories that are distinguished by each passing through an observation point. As shown, they can be faster and more flexible in calculating short-range turbulent dispersion from surface area sources than “forward” models, which simulate trajectories emanating from a source. Using a backward model, one may catalog a set of “touchdown” points (where trajectories reflect off the ground) and vertical touchdown velocities w0 of particles “on their way to” a sensor location. It is then trivial to deduce the average concentration resulting from a surface source using the touchdown catalog: by summing the reciprocal of w0 for touchdowns occurring within the source boundary. An advantage of this methodology is that while forward model trajectories are linked to a specific source, backward trajectories have no such dependence. In horizontally homogeneous flow, a “library” of touchdown catalogs (for representative ...

Development and Testing of a Surface Flux and Planetary Boundary Layer Model for Application in Mesoscale Models

Abstract: Although the development of soil, vegetation, and atmosphere interaction models has been driven primarily by the need for accurate simulations of long-term energy and moisture budgets in global climate models, the importance of these processes at smaller scales for short-term numerical weather prediction and air quality studies is becoming more appreciated. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) development is highly dependent on the partitioning of the available net radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes. Therefore, adequate treatmentof surface properties such as soil moisture and vegetation characteristics is essential for accurate simulation of PBL development, convective and low-level cloud processes, and the temperature and humidity of boundary layer air. In this paper, the development ofa simple coupled surface and PBL model, which is planned for incorporation into the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM4/5), is described. The soil-vege...

The Quality Control of Long-Term Climatological Data Using Objective Data Analysis

Abstract: One of the major concerns with detecting global climate change is the quality of the data. Climate data are extremely sensitive to errant values and outliers. Prior to analysis of these time series, it is important to remove outliers in a methodical manner. This study provides statistically derived bounds for the uncertainty associated with surface temperature and precipitation measurements and yields a baseline dataset for validation of climate models as well as for a variety of other climatological uses. A two-step procedure using objective analysis was used to identify outliers. The first step was a temporal check that determines if a particular monthly value is consistent with other monthly values for the same station. The second step utilizes six different spatial interpolation techniques to estimate each monthly time series. Each of the methods is ranked according to its respective correlation coefficients with the actual time series, and the technique with the highest correlation coefficie...

A Simple Empirical Model for Predicting the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds after Landfall

Abstract: An empirical model for predicting the maximum wind of landfalling tropical cyclones is developed. The model is based upon the observation that the wind speed decay rate after landfall is proportional to the wind speed. Observations also indicate that the wind speed decays to a small, but nonzero, background wind speed. With these assumptions, the wind speed is determined from a simple two-parameter exponential decay model, which is a function of the wind speed at landfall and the time since landfall. A correction can also be added that accounts for differences between storms that move inland slowly and storms that move inland rapidly. The model parameters are determined from the National Hurricane Center best track intensities of all U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones south of 37°N for the period 1967–93. Three storms that made landfall in Florida prior to 1967 were also included in the sample. Results show that the two-parameter model explains 91% of the variance of the best track intensity chan...

Improvements of an ice-phase microphysics parameterization for use in numerical simulations of tropical convection

Abstract: It is important to properly simulate the extent and ice water content of tropical anvil clouds in numerical models that explicitly include cloud formation because of the significant effects that these clouds have on the radiation budget. For this reason, a commonly used bulk ice-phase microphysics parameterization was modified to more realistically simulate some of the microphysical processes that occur in tropical anvil clouds. Cloud ice growth by the Bergeron process and the associated formation of snow were revised. The characteristics of graupel were also modified in accord with a previous study. Numerical simulations of a tropical squall line demonstrate that the amount of cloud ice and the extent of anvil clouds are increased to more realistic values by the first two changes.

The Application of RadarGauge Comparisons to Operational Precipitation Profile Corrections

Abstract: The analyses of data recorded during the past eight years with two Swiss radars, a network of rain gauges, and river flow measurements have helped to quantify the vertical profile of reflectivity and the influences of topography, meteorology, and radar parameters on the precision of radar precipitation estimation. The influence of the topography around the radar, the width of the radar beam, and the vertical echo structure produces a complex error distribution in space and time, with errors dependent upon storm type, distance from the radar, and the radar horizon. In spite of excellent agreement between amounts estimated by the 5-cm radar at close ranges and gauges located below the radar volume, underestimation of rainfall increases with range from the radar. The authors' experience dramatically shows how significantly errors are reduced when precipitation can be estimated close to the ground, a task made easier by choosing a radar site with a good view and by rigorously eliminating echoes conta...

Simulated Urban Climate Response to Modifications in Surface Albedo and Vegetative Cover

Abstract: Three-dimensional meteorological simulations have been conducted to investigate the potential impact of urban surface characteristic modifications on local climate. Results for a base case simulation for the Los Angeles basin are compared to results from cases in which urban albedo or vegetative cover are increased. The methodology for determining the distribution and magnitude of these simulated surface modifications is presented. Increasing albedo over downtown Los Angeles by 0.14 and over the entire basin by an average of 0.08 decreased peak summertime temperatures by as much as 1.5°C. This level of albedo augmentation also lowered boundary layer heights by more than 50 m and reduced the magnitude and penetration of the sea breeze. A second simulation, in which vegetative cover was increased, showed qualitatively similar impacts. The results from these simulations indicate a potential to reduce urban energy demand and atmospheric pollution by 5%–10% through application of reasonable surface mo...

Nowcasting of Motion and Growth of Precipitation with Radar over a Complex Orography

Abstract: Motion vectors of radar echo patterns can be obtained by applying a cross-correlation method (e.g., the TREC method) to radar data collected several minutes apart Here an extension of TREC, called COTREC, is presented. Based on constraints and a variational technique, this extension is an efficient objective analysis method for smoothing the motion vectors and forcing them to fulfill the continuity equation. COTREC corrects the apparently wrong vectors that are often caused by failures of TREC. This allows us to identify regions of growth and decay of radar echoes. For different types of precipitation (convective and widespread), radar data were collected for evaluation of COTREC in complex orography. A comparison between the radial velocity components of retrieved fields of echo motion and the measured Doppler velocity has been made. A marked reduction of the differences with respect to the measured Doppler field was obtained for COTREC, as compared to TREC vectors. A retardation of COTREC-deriv...

An Intercomparison of Gauge Observations and Satellite Estimates of Monthly Precipitation

Abstract: In order to further our quantitative understanding of the advantages and the shortcomings of the various sources of data used to represent climatic-scale precipitation, monthly gauge observations and satellite estimates are intercompared for global grid areas of 2.5° latitude/longitude for a period from July 1987 to June 1990. The results show that 1) at least five gauges are necessary to construct an areal-averaged monthly mean for the grids with accuracy of 10%, and 10% of the global land grids satisfy the requirement; 2) both microwave- and IR-based satellite estimates give similar spatial distributions of precipitation with good agreement with gauge observations for the warm seasons and over the tropical Pacific Ocean; and 3) the satellite estimates, especially those from the IR-based algorithm, exhibit poorer correspondence with gauge observations over land areas for the cold seasons. These results show that, for many applications, no single type of data can be used as the source for a month...

Local Advection of Momentum, Heat, and Moisture during the Melt of Patchy Snow Covers

Abstract: A numerical atmospheric boundary layer model, based on higher-order turbulence closure assumptions, is developed and used to simulate the local advection of momentum, heat, and moisture during the melt of patchy snow covers over a 10-km horizontal domain. The coupled model includes solution of the mass continuity equation, the horizontal and vertical momentum equations, an E−ϵ turbulence model, an energy equation, and a water vapor conservation equation. Atmospheric buoyancy is accounted for, and a land surface energy balance model is implemented at the lower boundary. Model integrations indicate that advective processes occurring at local scales produce nonlinear horizontal variations in surface fluxes. Under conditions of the numerical experiments, the energy available to melt snow-covered regions has been found to increase by as much as 30% as the area of exposed vegetation increases upwind of the snow cover. The melt increase is found to vary in a largely linear fashion with decreasing snow-c...

Comparison of heat fluxes from summertime observations in the suburbs of four North American cities

Abstract: Previous measurements of urban energy balances have been restricted to a small number of cities. This paper presents directly measured energy balance fluxes for suburban areas in four cities within the United States: Tucson, Sacramento, Chicago, and Los Angeles. They represent a range of synoptic regimes and surface morphologies (built and vegetative). Ensemble diurnal patterns and ratios of fluxes for clear, cloudy, and all sky conditions are presented. Consideration is given to both the mean and the variability of the fluxes. As expected, the magnitudes of the fluxes vary between cities; however, in general, the diurnal trends of flux partitioning are similar in terms of the timing of the peaks and changes in sign. Chicago is slightly different due to frequent wetting by rain. In the other cities, it seems that daytime Bowen ratios are inversely related to the area irrigated.

Identification of Vertical Profiles of Radar Reflectivity for Hydrological Applications Using an Inverse Method. Part I: Formulation

Abstract: A method of identification of the vertical profile of reflectivity, formulated by the authors in an accompanying paper, is tested through a sensitivity analysis. Two simulated but realistic profiles (with and without brightband effects) are used. The radar features and the statistical parameters involved in this method are allowed to varyaround standard values in order to understand their influence on the results. The main conclusion is that, for a given radar configuration, results of acceptable quality can be obtained with a single adjustment ofthe method for the two types of profiles, which suggests the approach is operationally applicable. To complement this theoretical analysis, actual profiles of reflectivities are studied for two rainfall eventsobserved in the Cevennes region of France. The efficiency of the proposed method is appreciated from a hydrological point of view. A comparison is performed at the basin scale between hourly rainfall intensities, measured with a dense network of rai...

Determination of Cloud Vertical Structure from Upper-Air Observations

Abstract: A method is described to use rawinsonde data to estimate cloud vertical structure, including cloud-top and cloud-base heights, cloud-layer thickness, and the characteristics of multilayered clouds. Cloud-layer base and top locations are identified based on three criteria: maximum relative humidity in a cloud of at least 87%, minimum relative humidity of at least 84%, and relative humidity jumps exceeding 3% at cloud-layer top and base, where relative humidity is with respect to liquid water at temperatures greater than or equal to 0°C and with respect to ice at temperatures less than 0°C. The analysis method is tested at 30 ocean sites by comparing with cloud properties derived from other independent data sources. Comparison of layer-cloud frequencies of occurrence with surface observations shows that rawinsonde observations (RAOBS) usually detect the same number of cloud layers for low and middle clouds as the surface observers, but disagree more for high-level clouds. There is good agreement be...

Recursive Filter Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields: Applications to NESDIS Operational Processing

Abstract: A recursive filter objective analysis method is described. It is a "successive approximation" system with the particular feature of locally varying scaling, making it especially appropriate for dealing with inhomogeneous data. Attention is given to proper treatment of lateral boundaries, which permit its use in limited domains. Thissystem provides estimates of input data quality that can be used for editing datasets before their distribution and for the weighting of data in application by other users, Two- and three-dimensional versions of the analysis operating on a Cartesian grid are used operationally at the National Environmental Satellite and Data InformationService. They are used both in the production of data and for quality control prior to dissemination. Examplesof these applications are given.

The Surface Energy Balance of Antarctic Snow and Blue Ice

Abstract: Little is known about the surface energy balance of Antartic blue-ice areas although there have been some studies of the surface energy balance of snow surfaces. Therefore, a detailed meteorological experiment was carded out in the vicinity of a blue-ice area in the Heimefrontfjella, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, during the austral summer of 1992/93. Since not all the surface fluxes could be measured directly, the use of a model was necessary. The main purpose of the model is to calculate the surface and subsurface temperatures from which the emitted longwave radiation and the turbulent fluxes can be calculated. The surface energy balance was evaluated at four locations: one on blue ice, and three on snow. Differences are due mainly to the fact that ice has a lower albedo (0.56) than snow (0.80). To compensate for the larger solar absorption of ice, upward fluxes of longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes are larger over ice. Moreover, the energy flux into the ice is larger than into snow due t...

Numerical Simulations of the Effect of Soil Moisture and Vegetation Cover on the Development of Deep Convection

Abstract: A one-dimensional (column) version of a primitive equations model has been used to study the impact of soil moisture and vegetation cover on the development of deep cumulus convection in the absence of dynamical forcing. The model includes parameterizations of radiation, turbulent exchange, deep convection, shallow boundary layer convective clouds, vegetation, and soil temperature and moisture. Multiple one-dimensional experiments were performed using the average July sounding for Topeka, Kansas, as the initial condition. A range of volumetric soil moisture from one-half of the wilting point to saturation and vegetation cover ranging from bare soil to full cover were considered. Vegetation cover was found to promote convection, both by extraction of soil moisture and by shading the soil so that conduction of heat into the soil was reduced (thereby increasing the available energy). The larger values of initial soil moisture were found to delay the onset of precipitation and to increase the precipi...

Turbulent Mixing in Stably Stratified Shear Flows.

Abstract: Vertical mixing of momentum and heat is investigated in turbulent stratified shear flows. It is assumed that the flow has uniform shear and stratification with homogeneous turbulence and that an equilibrium is reached between kinetic and potential energy without gravity wave oscillations. A simple model is derived to estimate vertical diffusivities for Richardson numbers in between 0 and about 1. The model is based on the budgets of kinetic and potential energy and assumes a linear relationship between dissipation, shear, and vertical velocity variance for closure. Scalar fluctuations are related to shear or buoyancy frequency depending on the Richardson number. The turbulent Prandtl number and the growth rate of kinetic energy are specified as functions of this number. Model coefficients are determined mainly from laboratory measurements. Data from large-eddy simulations are used to determine the "stationary" Richardson number with balanced shear production, dissipation, and buoyancy terms. The ...

Summertime Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity around Major Midwestern Urban Areas

Abstract: Cloud-to-ground lightning flash data collected by the National Lightning Detection Network were analysed in and around 16 central U.S. cities for the period 1989–92. Lightning data are well suited to study storm activity in and around large urban areas since their continuity and coverage in space and time is superior to historical, spatially limited records of thunderstorm activity. Frequency of cloud-to-ground lightning flashes (of negative and positive polarity) in the area immediately upwind, within, and immediately downwind of the cities were compared. An enhancement of lightning frequency on the order of 40%–85% was found over and downwind of many of these cities. A number of possible urban-related causal factors were examined including effects of increased urban concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei, urban population and size, and the presence of distinct topographic features in and around the cities. Various factors, physical and anthropogenic, appeared to interact in diverse ways to...

Radar and Radiation Properties of Ice Clouds

Abstract: The authors derive relations of the equivalent radar reflectivity Ze and extinction coefficient α of ice clouds and confirm the theory by in situ aircraft observations during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment. Equivalent radar reflectivity Ze is a function of ice water content W and a moment of the size distribution such as the median volume diameter D0. Stratification of the data by D0 provides a set of W − Ze relations from which one may deduce the dependence of particle density on size. This relation is close to that of Brown and Francis and provides confidence in the methodology of estimating particle size and mass. The authors find that there is no universal W − Ze relation, due both to large scatter and systematic shifts in particle size from day to day and cloud to cloud. These variations manifest the normal changes in ice crystal growth. The result is that, with the exception of temperatures less than −40°C, temperature cannot be used to relia...

A Multiscale Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation System Applied in the San Joaquin Valley during SARMAP. Part I: Modeling Design and Basic Performance Characteristics

Abstract: This paper presents results of numerical simulations made with a high-resolution multiscale four-dimensional data assimilation system applied over California during two episodes associated with high ozone concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley The model used here is the nonhydrostatic Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) The focus of the paper is the objective validation of the regional (mesoalpha scale) meteorological results The mulliscale data assimilation approach produces highly reliable simulations of the wind, temperature, mixed-layer depth, and moisture, each of which is vital to air quality modeling and a host of other mesoscale applications The significance of this research is threefold First, it is the first evaluation of this multiscale assimilation system in strongly heated summertime conditions and with comparatively fine grid resolution (4-km inner mesh) Second, the assimilation system has been extended so that tempera

CART Decision-Tree Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Summer Season Maximum Surface Ozone for the Vancouver, Montreal, and Atlantic Regions of Canada

Abstract: Prediction of daily maximum surface ozone (O3) concentration was begun by Environment Canada in the spring of 1993 for the Vancouver, Montreal, and Atlantic regions in order to advise the public of expected air quality. Forecasts have been issued for southern Ontario for many years by the province of Ontario, but this is a new undertaking in other parts of the country, where air quality has become a concern in recent years. There is a need for guidance to prepare the forecasts, particularly for prediction of surface O3 concentration levels near or exceeding the Canadian 1-h maximum acceptable concentration of 82 ppb. Such occurrences are episodic and relatively rare in southern Canada. Probability of occurrence is in the range 0.00–0.08 at the sites in the regions studied here, thus, reliable prediction is difficult without guidance. Mesoscale numerical meteorological–photochemical models are not currently available for routine use in operations, but the capability exists for development and use ...

Precipitation and Attenuation Measurements at a 10-cm Wavelength

Abstract: On 9 June 1993, a squall line passed over the National Severe Storms Laboratory Cimarron radar and polarimetric data of this event were recorded. The line produced heavy rain and at one time was oriented north-south, extending over the radar site. At that time intense rainfall occurred over the radar. Polarimetric radar data from this event are examined to explore the utility of polarization radar techniques for rainfall monitoring and to evaluate the rain accumulation algorithm of the National Weather Services WSR-88D radar. The Twin Lakes WSR-88D radar observed the same squall line but from a different viewing angle. An unexpectedly large attenuation was experienced by the 10-cm-wavelength radiation, leading to large errors in conventional rain estimation techniques. An independent assessment of the rain measurements is made using rain accumulation in a dense network of surface rain gauges.

Classification of Rain Regimes by the Three-Dimensional Properties of Reflectivity Fields

Abstract: An automated scheme to characterize precipitation echoes within small windows in the radar field is presented and applied to previously subjectively classified tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia. The classification parameters are (a) E(sub e), effective efficiency, as determined by cloud-top and cloud-base water vapor saturation mixing ratios; (b) BBF, brightband fraction, as determined by the fraction of the radar echo area in which the maximal reflectivity occurs within +/- 1.5 km of the 0 C isotherm level; and (c) del(sub r) Z, radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km). These classification criteria were applied to tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia, and to winter convective rain cloud systems in Israel. Both sets of measurements were made with nearly identical networks of C-band radars and rain gauge networks. The results of the application of these objective classification criteria to several independently predetermined rain regimes in Darwin have shown that better organized rain systems have smaller del(sub r) Z and larger BBF. Similarly, smaller del(sub r)Z and larger BBF were also observed from maritime rain cloud systems, as compared to continental rain cloud systems with the same degree of organization. Continental rain cloud system, regardless of their degree of organization, have larger depths, as expressed by E(sub e). The rainfall analyses presented in this study are based exclusively on rain gauge measurements, while radar information was used only to classify the individual gauge measurements.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Mixing Height Used during the 1992 Atlanta Field Intensive

Abstract: During the summer of 1992, measurements of the boundary layer mixing height were conducted at five locations around the city of Atlanta, Georgia, as part of the 1992 Atlanta Field Intensive of the Southern Oxidants Research Program on Ozone Non-Attainment. These measurements were made during a series of “high-ozone-event days” for the purpose of acquiring information about the temporal evolution of the convective mixed layer. The information acquired from these systems was included in a database of meteorological variables for use in the photochemical modeling efforts associated with the study. The following measurement systems were selected for use in this study by organizers of the 1992 Atlanta Field Intensive: one rawinsonde system, four radar wind profiler–RASS (radar acoustic sounding system) systems, and two lidar systems. A comparison of the mixing-height estimates from each of the measurement systems used during the 1992 Atlanta Field Intensive was performed in an effort to evaluate the c...

Horizontal Heat Fluxes over Complex Terrain Computed Using a Simple Mixed-Layer Model and a Numerical Model

Abstract: The thermally induced local circulation over a periodic valley is simulated by a two-dimensional numerical model that does not include condensational processes. During the daytime of a clear, calm day, heat is transported from the mountainous region to the valley area by anabatic wind and its return flow. The specific humidity is, however, transported in an inverse manner. The horizontal exchange rate of sensible heat has a horizontal scale similarity, as long as the horizontal scale is less than a critical width of about 100 km. The sensible heat accumulated in an atmospheric column over an arbitrary point can be estimated by a simple model termed the uniform mixed-layer model (UML). The model assumes that the potential temperature is both vertically and horizontally uniform in the mixed layer, even over the complex terrain. The UML model is valid only when the horizontal scale of the topography is less than the critical width and the maximum difference in the elevation of the topography is less...

A Bayesian approach to microwave precipitation profile retrieval

Abstract: A multichannel passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithm is developed. Bayes theorem is used to combine statistical information from numerical cloud models with forward radiative transfer modeling. A multivariate lognormal prior probability distribution contains the covariance information about hydrometeor distribution that resolves the nonuniqueness inherent in the inversion process. Hydrometeor profiles are retrieved by maximizing the posterior probability density for each vector of observations. The hydrometeor profile retrieval method is tested with data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz) of convection over ocean and land in Florida. The CP-2 multiparameter radar data are used to verify the retrieved profiles. The results show that the method can retrieve approximate hydrometeor profiles, with larger errors over land than water. There is considerably greater accuracy in the retrieval of integrated hydrometeor contents than of profiles. Many of the retrieval errors are traced to problems with the cloud model microphysical information, and future improvements to the algorithm are suggested.