Showing papers in "Journal of Clinical Medicine in 2020"
TL;DR: The incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution and it is recommended that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days.
Abstract: The geographic spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections from the epicenter of Wuhan, China, has provided an opportunity to study the natural history of the recently emerged virus. Using publicly available event-date data from the ongoing epidemic, the present study investigated the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our results show that the incubation period falls within the range of 2–14 days with 95% confidence and has a mean of around 5 days when approximated using the best-fit lognormal distribution. The mean time from illness onset to hospital admission (for treatment and/or isolation) was estimated at 3–4 days without truncation and at 5–9 days when right truncated. Based on the 95th percentile estimate of the incubation period, we recommend that the length of quarantine should be at least 14 days. The median time delay of 13 days from illness onset to death (17 days with right truncation) should be considered when estimating the COVID-19 case fatality risk.
1,222 citations
TL;DR: Sensitivity analyses show that interventions, such as intensive contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation, can effectively reduce the control reproduction number and transmission risk, with the effect of travel restriction adopted by Wuhan on 2019-nCoV infection in Beijing being almost equivalent to increasing quarantine by a 100 thousand baseline value.
Abstract: Since the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has been quickly spreading out to other provinces and neighboring countries. Estimation of the basic reproduction number by means of mathematical modeling can be helpful for determining the potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity. A deterministic compartmental model was devised based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The estimations based on likelihood and model analysis show that the control reproduction number may be as high as 6.47 (95% CI 5.71–7.23). Sensitivity analyses show that interventions, such as intensive contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation, can effectively reduce the control reproduction number and transmission risk, with the effect of travel restriction adopted by Wuhan on 2019-nCoV infection in Beijing being almost equivalent to increasing quarantine by a 100 thousand baseline value. It is essential to assess how the expensive, resource-intensive measures implemented by the Chinese authorities can contribute to the prevention and control of the 2019-nCoV infection, and how long they should be maintained. Under the most restrictive measures, the outbreak is expected to peak within two weeks (since 23 January 2020) with a significant low peak value. With travel restriction (no imported exposed individuals to Beijing), the number of infected individuals in seven days will decrease by 91.14% in Beijing, compared with the scenario of no travel restriction.
1,136 citations
TL;DR: The Chinese Government has initiated a level-1 public health response to prevent the spread of the disease, and it is also crucial to speed up the development of vaccines and drugs for treatment, which will enable us to defeat COVID-19 as soon as possible.
Abstract: In December 2019, cases of unidentified pneumonia with a history of exposure in the Huanan Seafood Market were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was identified to be accountable for this disease. Human-to-human transmission is confirmed, and this disease (named COVID-19 by World Health Organization (WHO)) spread rapidly around the country and the world. As of 18 February 2020, the number of confirmed cases had reached 75,199 with 2009 fatalities. The COVID-19 resulted in a much lower case-fatality rate (about 2.67%) among the confirmed cases, compared with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Among the symptom composition of the 45 fatality cases collected from the released official reports, the top four are fever, cough, short of breath, and chest tightness/pain. The major comorbidities of the fatality cases include hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, cerebral infarction, and chronic bronchitis. The source of the virus and the pathogenesis of this disease are still unconfirmed. No specific therapeutic drug has been found. The Chinese Government has initiated a level-1 public health response to prevent the spread of the disease. Meanwhile, it is also crucial to speed up the development of vaccines and drugs for treatment, which will enable us to defeat COVID-19 as soon as possible.
530 citations
TL;DR: A pneumonia outbreak with unknown etiology was reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, producing the disease named coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), which the WHO has declared a pandemic.
Abstract: A pneumonia outbreak with unknown etiology was reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. The causative agent of the outbreak was identified by the WHO as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), producing the disease named coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). The virus is closely related (96.3%) to bat coronavirus RaTG13, based on phylogenetic analysis. Human-to-human transmission has been confirmed even from asymptomatic carriers. The virus has spread to at least 200 countries, and more than 1,700,000 confirmed cases and 111,600 deaths have been recorded, with massive global increases in the number of cases daily. Therefore, the WHO has declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The disease is characterized by fever, dry cough, and chest pain with pneumonia in severe cases. In the beginning, the world public health authorities tried to eradicate the disease in China through quarantine but are now transitioning to prevention strategies worldwide to delay its spread. To date, there are no available vaccines or specific therapeutic drugs to treat the virus. There are many knowledge gaps about the newly emerged SARS-CoV-2, leading to misinformation. Therefore, in this review, we provide recent information about the COVID-19 pandemic. This review also provides insights for the control of pathogenic infections in humans such as SARS-CoV-2 infection and future spillovers.
464 citations
TL;DR: A systematic review of the published literature and preprints on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak following predefined eligibility criteria found that there is an urgent need for rigorous research focusing on the mitigation efforts to minimize the impact on society.
Abstract: As the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) continues to spread rapidly across the globe, we aimed to identify and summarize the existing evidence on epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and the effectiveness of control measures to inform policymakers and leaders in formulating management guidelines, and to provide directions for future research. We conducted a systematic review of the published literature and preprints on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak following predefined eligibility criteria. Of 317 research articles generated from our initial search on PubMed and preprint archives on 21 February 2020, 41 met our inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Current evidence suggests that it takes about 3-7 days for the epidemic to double in size. Of 21 estimates for the basic reproduction number ranging from 1.9 to 6.5, 13 were between 2.0 and 3.0. The incubation period was estimated to be 4-6 days, whereas the serial interval was estimated to be 4-8 days. Though the true case fatality risk is yet unknown, current model-based estimates ranged from 0.3% to 1.4% for outside China. There is an urgent need for rigorous research focusing on the mitigation efforts to minimize the impact on society.
457 citations
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais1, University of Split2, Technische Universität München3, University of Münster4, University of Colombo5, University of Newcastle6, University of Peradeniya7, National Institute for Medical Research8, Federal University of São Paulo9, Cochrane Collaboration10, York University11, Lund University12, University of Toledo13, The George Institute for Global Health14, Wuhan University15, Dublin City University16, Ohio State University17
TL;DR: The majority of reported clinical symptoms and laboratory findings related to SARS-CoV-2 infection are non-specific and clinical suspicion, accompanied by a relevant epidemiological history, should be followed by early imaging and virological assay.
Abstract: A growing body of literature on the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is becoming available, but a synthesis of available data has not been conducted. We performed a scoping review of currently available clinical, epidemiological, laboratory, and chest imaging data related to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane CENTRAL, EMBASE, Scopus and LILACS from 01 January 2019 to 24 February 2020. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. Qualitative synthesis and meta-analysis were conducted using the clinical and laboratory data, and random-effects models were applied to estimate pooled results. A total of 61 studies were included (59,254 patients). The most common disease-related symptoms were fever (82%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 56%–99%; n = 4410), cough (61%, 95% CI 39%–81%; n = 3985), muscle aches and/or fatigue (36%, 95% CI 18%–55%; n = 3778), dyspnea (26%, 95% CI 12%–41%; n = 3700), headache in 12% (95% CI 4%–23%, n = 3598 patients), sore throat in 10% (95% CI 5%–17%, n = 1387) and gastrointestinal symptoms in 9% (95% CI 3%–17%, n = 1744). Laboratory findings were described in a lower number of patients and revealed lymphopenia (0.93 × 109/L, 95% CI 0.83–1.03 × 109/L, n = 464) and abnormal C-reactive protein (33.72 mg/dL, 95% CI 21.54–45.91 mg/dL; n = 1637). Radiological findings varied, but mostly described ground-glass opacities and consolidation. Data on treatment options were limited. All-cause mortality was 0.3% (95% CI 0.0%–1.0%; n = 53,631). Epidemiological studies showed that mortality was higher in males and elderly patients. The majority of reported clinical symptoms and laboratory findings related to SARS-CoV-2 infection are non-specific. Clinical suspicion, accompanied by a relevant epidemiological history, should be followed by early imaging and virological assay.
432 citations
TL;DR: The epicenter of the original outbreak in China has high male smoking rates, and early reported death rates have an emphasis on older males, therefore the likelihood of smokers being overrepresented in fatalities is high and data on smoking status should be collected on all identified cases of Covid-19.
Abstract: The epicenter of the original outbreak in China has high male smoking rates of around 50%, and early reported death rates have an emphasis on older males, therefore the likelihood of smokers being overrepresented in fatalities is high. In Iran, China, Italy, and South Korea, female smoking rates are much lower than males. Fewer females have contracted the virus. If this analysis is correct, then Indonesia would be expected to begin experiencing high rates of Covid-19 because its male smoking rate is over 60% (Tobacco Atlas). Smokers are vulnerable to respiratory viruses. Smoking can upregulate angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) receptor, the known receptor for both the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the human respiratory coronavirus NL638. This could also be true for new electronic smoking devices such as electronic cigarettes and "heat-not-burn" IQOS devices. ACE2 could be a novel adhesion molecule for SARS-CoV-2 causing Covid-19 and a potential therapeutic target for the prevention of fatal microbial infections, and therefore it should be fast tracked and prioritized for research and investigation. Data on smoking status should be collected on all identified cases of Covid-19.
418 citations
TL;DR: A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, and there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence.
Abstract: Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are important interventions for the management of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. It is timely to systematically review the potential of these interventions, including those for Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, to guide policymakers globally on their prioritization of resources for research and development. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Supplementary strategies through Google Search and personal communications were used. A total of 27 studies fulfilled the criteria for review. Several laboratory protocols for confirmation of suspected 2019-nCoV cases using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) have been published. A commercial RT-PCR kit developed by the Beijing Genomic Institute is currently widely used in China and likely in Asia. However, serological assays as well as point-of-care testing kits have not been developed but are likely in the near future. Several vaccine candidates are in the pipeline. The likely earliest Phase 1 vaccine trial is a synthetic DNA-based candidate. A number of novel compounds as well as therapeutics licensed for other conditions appear to have in vitro efficacy against the 2019-nCoV. Some are being tested in clinical trials against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, while others have been listed for clinical trials against 2019-nCoV. However, there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence.
414 citations
TL;DR: A systematic and comprehensive evaluation of both clinical and preclinical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the endothelium is a key target organ in COVID-19 is reported, providing a mechanistic rationale behind its systemic manifestations.
Abstract: The symptoms most commonly reported by patients affected by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) include cough, fever, and shortness of breath. However, other major events usually observed in COVID-19 patients (e.g., high blood pressure, arterial and venous thromboembolism, kidney disease, neurologic disorders, and diabetes mellitus) indicate that the virus is targeting the endothelium, one of the largest organs in the human body. Herein, we report a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of both clinical and preclinical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the endothelium is a key target organ in COVID-19, providing a mechanistic rationale behind its systemic manifestations.
384 citations
TL;DR: The under-reporting of 2019-nCoV cases was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.
Abstract: Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403–540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18–25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49–2.63). Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.
384 citations
TL;DR: HL shows a protective effect on depression and HRQoL during the epidemic, and people with S-COVID-19-S had a higher depression likelihood and lower HRZoL than those without.
Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic affects people's health and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), especially in those who have suspected COVID-19 symptoms (S-COVID-19-S). We examined the effect of modifications of health literacy (HL) on depression and HRQoL. A cross-sectional study was conducted from 14 February to 2 March 2020. 3947 participants were recruited from outpatient departments of nine hospitals and health centers across Vietnam. The interviews were conducted using printed questionnaires including participants' characteristics, clinical parameters, health behaviors, HL, depression, and HRQoL. People with S-COVID-19-S had a higher depression likelihood (OR, 2.88; p < 0.001), lower HRQoL-score (B, -7.92; p < 0.001). In comparison to people without S-COVID-19-S and low HL, those with S-COVID-19-S and low HL had 9.70 times higher depression likelihood (p < 0.001), 20.62 lower HRQoL-score (p < 0.001), for the people without S-COVID-19-S, 1 score increment of HL resulted in 5% lower depression likelihood (p < 0.001) and 0.45 higher HRQoL-score (p < 0.001), while for those people with S-COVID-19-S, 1 score increment of HL resulted in a 4% lower depression likelihood (p = 0.004) and 0.43 higher HRQoL-score (p < 0.001). People with S-COVID-19-S had a higher depression likelihood and lower HRQoL than those without. HL shows a protective effect on depression and HRQoL during the epidemic.
TL;DR: The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.
Abstract: A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.
TL;DR: It is argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic and the proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.
Abstract: The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number-the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naive population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December, 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.
TL;DR: A new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China, using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak.
Abstract: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and computing time. Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in two countries, namely the USA and China. The outcomes also showed good performances.
TL;DR: From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights and screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus.
Abstract: From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)—the actual risk of death among all infected individuals—is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958.
TL;DR: A prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020 and using the well-known SEIR compartmental model with Poisson noise to obtain epidemiological insights is obtained.
Abstract: The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was reported on 15 January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. By using a least-square-based method with Poisson noise, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Japan is R 0 = 2 . 6 ( 95 % CI, 2 . 4 - 2 . 8 ) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size.
TL;DR: The aim of this paper is to review and summarize all of the findings regarding clinical manifestations of COVID-19 patients, which include respiratory, neurological, olfactory and gustatory, gastrointestinal, ophthalmic, dermatological, cardiac, and rheumatologic manifestations, as well as specific symptoms in pediatric patients.
Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), has become an epidemiological threat and a worldwide concern. SARS-CoV-2 has spread to 210 countries worldwide and more than 6,500,000 confirmed cases and 384,643 deaths have been reported, while the number of both confirmed and fatal cases is continually increasing. COVID-19 is a viral disease that can affect every age group—from infants to the elderly—resulting in a wide spectrum of various clinical manifestations. COVID-19 might present different degrees of severity—from mild or even asymptomatic carriers, even to fatal cases. The most common complications include pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Fever, dry cough, muscle weakness, and chest pain are the most prevalent and typical symptoms of COVID-19. However, patients might also present atypical symptoms that can occur alone, which might indicate the possible SARS-CoV-2 infection. The aim of this paper is to review and summarize all of the findings regarding clinical manifestations of COVID-19 patients, which include respiratory, neurological, olfactory and gustatory, gastrointestinal, ophthalmic, dermatological, cardiac, and rheumatologic manifestations, as well as specific symptoms in pediatric patients.
TL;DR: It is found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high Rloc, the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions.
Abstract: We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.
TL;DR: The author examines the underlying clinical implications that may predispose minority populations and the adverse clinical outcomes that may contribute to increased risk of mortality among African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos with COVID-19 compared with non-Hispanic Whites.
Abstract: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a betacoronavirus that causes the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is highly transmissible and pathogenic for humans and may cause life-threatening disease and mortality, especially in individuals with underlying comorbidities. First identified in an outbreak in Wuhan, China, COVID-19 is affecting more than 185 countries and territories around the world, with more than 15,754,651 confirmed cases and more than 640,029 deaths. Since December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 transmission has become a global threat, which includes confirmed cases in all 50 states within the United States (US). As of 25 July 2020, the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering Center for Systems Science and Engineering reports more than 4,112,651 cases and 145,546 deaths. To date, health disparities are associated with COVID-19 mortality among underserved populations. Here, the author explores potential underlying reasons for reported disproportionate, increased risks of mortality among African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos with COVID-19 compared with non-Hispanic Whites. The author examines the underlying clinical implications that may predispose minority populations and the adverse clinical outcomes that may contribute to increased risk of mortality. Government and community-based strategies to safeguard minority populations at risk for increased morbidity and mortality are essential. Underserved populations living in poverty with limited access to social services across the US are more likely to have underlying medical conditions and are among the most vulnerable. Societal and cultural barriers for ethnic minorities to achieve health equity are systemic issues that may be addressed only through shifts in governmental policies, producing long-overdue, substantive changes to end health care inequities.
TL;DR: Advanced age, male sex, the presence of comorbidities and abnormal laboratory values were more common among the patients with fatal outcomes, and baseline laboratory values on admission were consistent with an impaired immune-inflammatory profile.
Abstract: Background: Since the confirmation of the first patient infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Spain in January 2020, the epidemic has grown rapidly, with the greatest impact on the region of Madrid. This article describes the first 2226 adult patients with COVID-19, consecutively admitted to La Paz University Hospital in Madrid. Methods: Our cohort included all patients consecutively hospitalized who had a final outcome (death or discharge) in a 1286-bed hospital of Madrid (Spain) from 25 February (first case admitted) to 19 April 2020. The data were manually entered into an electronic case report form, which was monitored prior to the analysis. Results: We consecutively included 2226 adult patients admitted to the hospital who either died (460) or were discharged (1766). The patients’ median age was 61 years, and 51.8% were women. The most common comorbidity was arterial hypertension (41.3%), and the most common symptom on admission was fever (71.2%). The median time from disease onset to hospital admission was 6 days. The overall mortality was 20.7% and was higher in men (26.6% vs. 15.1%). Seventy-five patients with a final outcome were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) (3.4%). Most patients admitted to the ICU were men, and the median age was 64 years. Baseline laboratory values on admission were consistent with an impaired immune-inflammatory profile. Conclusions: We provide a description of the first large cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Europe. Advanced age, male sex, the presence of comorbidities and abnormal laboratory values were more common among the patients with fatal outcomes.
TL;DR: Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Z hejiang.
Abstract: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.
TL;DR: This review systematically discusses the chemical modifications, mechanism of action, and optimized delivery strategies of several different classes of ASOs, with a focus on drugs that are approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for clinical applications.
Abstract: Antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) bind sequence specifically to the target RNA and modulate protein expression through several different mechanisms The ASO field is an emerging area of drug development that targets the disease source at the RNA level and offers a promising alternative to therapies targeting downstream processes To translate ASO-based therapies into a clinical success, it is crucial to overcome the challenges associated with off-target side effects and insufficient biological activity In this regard, several chemical modifications and diverse delivery strategies have been explored In this review, we systematically discuss the chemical modifications, mechanism of action, and optimized delivery strategies of several different classes of ASOs Further, we highlight the recent advances made in development of ASO-based drugs with a focus on drugs that are approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for clinical applications We also discuss various promising ASO-based drug candidates in the clinical trials, and the outstanding opportunity of emerging microRNA as a viable therapeutic target for future ASO-based therapies
TL;DR: The purpose of this study is to explore the possibilities for the application of laser therapy in medicine and dentistry by analyzing lasers’ underlying mechanism of action on different cells, with a special focus on stem cells and mechanisms of repair.
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to explore the possibilities for the application of laser therapy in medicine and dentistry by analyzing lasers' underlying mechanism of action on different cells, with a special focus on stem cells and mechanisms of repair. The interest in the application of laser therapy in medicine and dentistry has remarkably increased in the last decade. There are different types of lasers available and their usage is well defined by different parameters, such as: wavelength, energy density, power output, and duration of radiation. Laser irradiation can induce a photobiomodulatory (PBM) effect on cells and tissues, contributing to a directed modulation of cell behaviors, enhancing the processes of tissue repair. Photobiomodulation (PBM), also known as low-level laser therapy (LLLT), can induce cell proliferation and enhance stem cell differentiation. Laser therapy is a non-invasive method that contributes to pain relief and reduces inflammation, parallel to the enhanced healing and tissue repair processes. The application of these properties was employed and observed in the treatment of various diseases and conditions, such as diabetes, brain injury, spinal cord damage, dermatological conditions, oral irritation, and in different areas of dentistry.
TL;DR: The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures.
Abstract: The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.
TL;DR: A characterization of people who are more vulnerable to experiencing high levels of stress during the COVID-19 pandemic is suggested, which may contribute to early and targeted intervention strategies.
Abstract: The global SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and subsequent lockdown had a significant impact on people’s daily lives, with strong implications for stress levels due to the threat of contagion and restrictions to freedom. Given the link between high stress levels and adverse physical and mental consequences, the COVID-19 pandemic is certainly a global public health issue. In the present study, we assessed the effect of the pandemic on stress levels in N = 2053 Italian adults, and characterized more vulnerable individuals on the basis of sociodemographic features and stable psychological traits. A set of 18 psycho-social variables, generalized regressions, and predictive machine learning approaches were leveraged. We identified higher levels of perceived stress in the study sample relative to Italian normative values. Higher levels of distress were found in women, participants with lower income, and participants living with others. Higher rates of emotional stability and self-control, as well as a positive coping style and internal locus of control, emerged as protective factors. Predictive learning models identified participants with high perceived stress, with a sensitivity greater than 76%. The results suggest a characterization of people who are more vulnerable to experiencing high levels of stress during the COVID-19 pandemic. This characterization may contribute to early and targeted intervention strategies.
TL;DR: The importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak of pneumonia will not become a global pandemic, is emphasised.
Abstract: The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to 24 countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan and USA. Fortunately, there has only been limited human-to-human transmission outside of China. Here, we assess the risk of sustained transmission whenever the coronavirus arrives in other countries. Data describing the times from symptom onset to hospitalisation for 47 patients infected early in the current outbreak are used to generate an estimate for the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Under the assumptions that the imported case is representative of the patients in China, and that the 2019-nCoV is similarly transmissible to the SARS coronavirus, the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission is 0.41 (credible interval [0.27, 0.55]). However, if the mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation can be halved by intense surveillance, then the probability that an imported case leads to sustained transmission is only 0.012 (credible interval [0, 0.099]). This emphasises the importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak will not become a global pandemic.
TL;DR: The underlying principles of HIFU are reviewed and current applications, outcomes, and complications after treatment are presented and recent applications of Focused ultrasound for tumor treatment, drug delivery, vessel occlusion, histotripsy, movement disorders, and vascular, oncologic, and psychiatric applications are reviewed.
Abstract: Ultrasound can penetrate deep into tissues and interact with human tissue via thermal and mechanical mechanisms. The ability to focus an ultrasound beam and its energy onto millimeter-size targets was a significant milestone in the development of therapeutic applications of focused ultrasound. Focused ultrasound can be used as a non-invasive thermal ablation technique for tumor treatment and is being developed as an option to standard oncologic therapies. High-intensity focused ultrasound has now been used for clinical treatment of a variety of solid malignant tumors, including those in the pancreas, liver, kidney, bone, prostate, and breast, as well as uterine fibroids and soft-tissue sarcomas. Magnetic resonance imaging and Ultrasound imaging can be combined with high intensity focused ultrasound to provide real-time imaging during ablation. Magnetic resonance guided focused ultrasound represents a novel non-invasive method of treatment that may play an important role as an alternative to open neurosurgical procedures for treatment of a number of brain disorders. This paper briefly reviews the underlying principles of HIFU and presents current applications, outcomes, and complications after treatment. Recent applications of Focused ultrasound for tumor treatment, drug delivery, vessel occlusion, histotripsy, movement disorders, and vascular, oncologic, and psychiatric applications are reviewed, along with clinical challenges and potential future clinical applications of HIFU.
TL;DR: This paper performed Master Regulator Analysis to detect which parts of the human interactome are most affected by the infection of SARS-CoV-2, and detected affected apoptotic and mitochondrial mechanisms, and a downregulation of the ACE2 protein receptor, notions that can be used to develop specific therapies against this new virus.
Abstract: The recent epidemic outbreak of a novel human coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 causing the respiratory tract disease COVID-19 has reached worldwide resonance and a global effort is being undertaken to characterize the molecular features and evolutionary origins of this virus. In this paper, we set out to shed light on the SARS-CoV-2/host receptor recognition, a crucial factor for successful virus infection. Based on the current knowledge of the interactome between SARS-CoV-2 and host cell proteins, we performed Master Regulator Analysis to detect which parts of the human interactome are most affected by the infection. We detected, amongst others, affected apoptotic and mitochondrial mechanisms, and a downregulation of the ACE2 protein receptor, notions that can be used to develop specific therapies against this new virus.
TL;DR: In the ongoing CO VID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems.
Abstract: To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.
TL;DR: A retrospective analysis of 259 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 found that, upon admission, 24.7% were anemic, with the majority suffering from AI, and a ferritin/transferrin ratio > 10 predicted a five-fold higher risk of ICU admission and an eight-foldHigher risk of the need for mechanical ventilation.
Abstract: Infections with SARS-CoV-2 can result in severe clinical manifestations. As such patients present with systemic inflammation, we studied the prevalence and predictive value of anemia of inflammation (AI) or functional iron deficiency (FID), originating from immune-mediated alterations of iron homeostasis. Within this retrospective analysis of 259 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, we found that, upon admission, 24.7% were anemic, with the majority suffering from AI (68.8%). Anemia was associated with a significantly higher in-hospital mortality (OR 3.729 (95%CI 1.739–7.995), p = 0.001) but not an increased frequency of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or need for mechanical ventilation. FID was present in 80.0% of patients upon admission, linked to more advanced inflammation and associated with significantly longer hospital stay. Notably, a ferritin/transferrin ratio > 10 predicted a five-fold higher risk of ICU admission and an eight-fold higher risk of the need for mechanical ventilation. Anemia and alterations of iron homeostasis are highly prevalent in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Iron metabolism biomarkers and hemoglobin can contribute to risk stratification of patients, as initial anemia is associated with increased mortality, whereas alterations of iron homeostasis with a higher ferritin/transferrin ratio reflect more advanced inflammation and predicts subsequent insufficient pulmonary oxygenation with the need for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation.