Showing papers in "Journal of Conflict Resolution in 2002"
TL;DR: In this paper, a set of procedures are presented to create additional estimates to remedy some of the coverage problems for data on gross domestic product, population, and bilateral trade flows for states involved in conflicts.
Abstract: Many sources of economic data cover only a limited set of states at any given point in time. Data are often systematically missing for some states over certain time periods. In the context of conflict studies, economic data are frequently unavailable for states involved in conflicts, undermining the ability to draw inferences of linkages between economic and political interactions. For example, simply using available data in a study of trade and conflict and disregarding observations with missing data on economic variables excludes key conflicts such as the Berlin crisis, the Korean War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Gulf War from the sample. A set of procedures are presented to create additional estimates to remedy some of the coverage problems for data on gross domestic product, population, and bilateral trade flows.
1,396 citations
TL;DR: This article analyzed the effect of ethnic division on civil war and the role of political systems in preventing these conflicts, using the importance of religious polarization and animist diversity to explain the incidence of ethnic civil war.
Abstract: The effect of ethnic division on civil war and the role of political systems in preventing these conflicts are analyzed, using the importance of religious polarization and animist diversity to explain the incidence of ethnic civil war. Findings show that religious differences are a social cleavage more important than linguistic differences in the development of civil war, and being a consociational democracy significantly reduces the incidence of ethnic civil war.
931 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply an econometric model of civil war to the analysis of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa and show that Africa has a similar incidence of civil conflict to that of other developing regions, and that, with minor exceptions, its conflicts are consistent with the global pattern of behavior.
Abstract: � In this paper the authors apply an econometric model of civil war to the analysis of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. The research shows that Africa has had a similar incidence of civil conflict to that of other developing regions, and that, with minor exceptions, its conflicts are consistent with the global pattern of behavior. However, the structure of risk differs considerably from other regions. Africa's economic characteristics have made it more vulnerable to conflict, but this has been offset by social characteristics which make its societies atypically safe. The paper analyzes the contrasting trends of conflict: rising in Africa and declining in other regions. Africa's rising trend of conflict is due to its atypically poor economic performance
771 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of outside interventions in the duration of civil conflicts has been examined, assuming that interventions are a form of conflict management, ex ante expectations would be that interventions would...
Abstract: Recent research has begun to focus on the role of outside interventions in the duration of civil conflicts. Assuming that interventions are a form of conflict management, ex ante expectations would...
549 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a neoclassical growth model is used to empirically test for the influences of a civil war on steady-state income per capita both at home and in neighboring countries.
Abstract: A neoclassical growth model is used to empirically test for the influences of a civil war on steady-state income per capita both at home and in neighboring countries. This model provides the basis for measuring long-run and short-run effects of civil wars on income per capita growth in the host country and its neighbors. Evidence of significant collateral damage on economic growth in neighboring nations is uncovered. In addition, this damage is attributed to country-specific influences rather than to migration, human capital, or investment factors. As the intensity of the measure used to proxy the conflict increases, there are enhanced neighbor spillovers. Moreover, collateral damage from civil wars to growth is more pronounced in the short run.
507 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the organizational structure of rebel groups is examined to understand patterns of recruitment and allegiance, and a model is developed to demonstrate that three factors play an important role in determining military success, deterring defection within the rebel group, and shaping recruitment.
Abstract: Civil war is fought between two political organizations, the state and a rebel group. Myriad theories of civil war have examined the role of state institutions and state strength, but little attention has been devoted to theorizing about rebel organizations themselves. The organizational structure of rebel groups is examined to understand patterns of recruitment and allegiance. Drawing on principal-agent analysis of participation and incentive compatibility constraints and the analytical tradition of rent-seeking contests, a model is developed to demonstrate that three factors—geography, ethnicity, and ideology—play an important role in determining military success, deterring defection within the rebel group, and shaping recruitment.
465 citations
TL;DR: In this article, two economic theories of war onset and duration are combined to estimate the prevalence of civil war across more than 150 countries and over 40 years, and the analysis is consistent with the findings of earlier studies on war start and duration.
Abstract: Quantitative studies of civil war have focused on war initiation (onset) or war duration and termination and produced important insights into these processes. An empirical analysis of civil war prevalence is used to show that the prevalence or amount of war observed at any given time is important. Civil war prevalence is defined as the probability of observing either a new war onset or the continuation of an ongoing war or both. Two economic theories of war onset and duration are combined to estimate the prevalence of civil war across more than 150 countries and over 40 years. The analysis is consistent with the findings of earlier studies on war onset and duration. New findings that result from slight improvements in the data and estimation methods show that democracy and ethnic diversity are significant determinants of civil war prevalence.
458 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a summary of several papers written in regards to civil war in low-income countries is presented, drawing several comparisons between the other papers and addressing the importance of understanding how civil wars develop.
Abstract: This paper is a summary of several papers written in regards to civil war in low-income countries. It draws several comparisons between the other papers and addresses the importance of understanding how civil wars develop. The research provides a look into the costs of civil war in low-income countries and how the effects of civil war can lower income even further.
316 citations
TL;DR: The authors argued that credibility arises from the expectation of future, continued gains from retaining an honest record, and compared two environments: one in which a country's record for honesty resides within the country as a whole and another in which reputation resides with individual leaders.
Abstract: Traditional arguments that link credibility to a reputation for resolve, power, or strength are contrasted with a model that posits that credibility arises from the expectation of future, continued gains from retaining an honest record. Diplomatic statements are believed only if a country's or leader's credibility is unmarred. Leaders keep their word so that they are believed in later crises. Two environments are contrasted: one in which a country's record for honesty resides within the country as a whole and another in which reputation resides with individual leaders. In this latter case, citizens have an incentive to remove leaders caught bluffing. More robust than previous reputation theories, this model also offers comparative statics for when diplomacy will be more effective—namely, when leaders are domestically accountable.
200 citations
TL;DR: This article used data from 152 countries from 1950 to 1992 to estimate the joint determination of external conflict, internal conflict, and the business cycle, and found that the occurrence of a recession alone will significantly increase the probability of internal conflict.
Abstract: Data from 152 countries from 1950 to 1992 are used to estimate the joint determination of external conflict, internal conflict, and the business cycle. Results show that the occurrence of a recession alone will significantly increase the probability of internal conflict, and when combined with the occurrence of an external conflict, recessions will further increase the probability of internal conflict. These results are obtained from estimates of a Markov probability model in which transitions between states of peace and conflict influence each other and the state of the economy. Strong evidence emerges that the internal conflict, external conflict, and the state of the economy are not independent of one another. The results suggest that recessions can provide the spark for increased probabilities of internal and external conflict, which in turn raise the probability of recessions. Such dynamics are suggestive of a poverty-conflict trap-like environment.
163 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the implications of source selection, three different sources regarding Guatemalan state terror are compared: newspapers, human rights documents, and interviews with eyewitnesses, showing that each source pays attention to diverse types and aspects of repression in line with the objectives of the observer, the characteristics of the repressive events, and the overall political context within which events take place.
Abstract: To investigate the implications of source selection, three different sources regarding Guatemalan state terror are compared: newspapers, human rights documents, and interviews with eyewitnesses. Results show that each source pays attention to diverse types and aspects of repression in line with the objectives of the observer, the characteristics of the repressive events, and the overall political context within which events take place. Who is consulted influences what is observed/recorded. Suggestions are presented for understanding sociopolitical behavior through diverse data sources, especially behavior related to contentious activity and/or occurring within contexts that are not easily penetrable.
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of the expansion of communications on cultural change was examined using simulations based on Robert Axelrod's adaptive culture model, and it was shown that expansion of communication increases the rate at which cultures change and the level of cultural homogeneity in the system.
Abstract: Globalization and the expansion of communications carry important consequences for culture in the international system. The effect of the expansion of communications on cultural change is examined using simulations based on Robert Axelrod's adaptive culture model. Findings show that the expansion of communications increases the rate at which cultures change and the level of cultural homogeneity in the system, but limited expansion of communications promotes the development of cultural diasporas. The expansion of communications also reduces the extent to which the most common cultural attributes tend to predominate after interaction.
TL;DR: In this article, three studies used the Palestinian-Israeli context to investigate the tendency for political antagonists to derogate each other's compromise proposals, and explored the role that differences in construal of proposal terms play in mediating reactive devaluation.
Abstract: Three studies used the Palestinian-Israeli context to investigate the tendency for political antagonists to derogate each other's compromise proposals. In study 1, Israeli Jews evaluated an actual Israeli-authored peace plan less favorably when it was attributed to the Palestinians than when it was attributed to their own government. In study 2, both Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs similarly devalued a Palestinian plan when it was ascribed to the “other side.” Furthermore, both Arabs and Jewish “hawks” (but not Jewish “doves”) perceived a proposal attributed to the dovish Israeli government as relatively bad for their own people and good for their adversaries. Study 3 explored the role that differences in construal of proposal terms play in mediating “reactive devaluation.” These studies expand theoretical understanding of this devaluation phenomenon and the barrier it creates to the resolution of real-world conflicts.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that governments are motivated to reach territorial solutions to reduce the opportunity costs associated with a festering dispute, and they have good reasons, under certain political and economic conditions, to use international legal processes as a substitute for domestic political decision making.
Abstract: Why should governments delegate decision-making authority over territorial issues to an international institution? This study argues that governments are motivated to reach territorial solutions to reduce the opportunity costs associated with a festering dispute. The evidence suggests that domestic political incapacity to negotiate concessions is associated with a commitment to arbitrate. Compliance is a function of the net costs and benefits involved in accepting the arbitral decision. These costs include the loss of valuable territory, but noncompliance also exacts costs with respect to governments' reputation, both domestically and internationally. This research speaks to a broader debate about the role of international legal institutions in foreign policy making and international outcomes. It shows that governments have good reasons, under certain political and economic conditions, to use international legal processes as a substitute for domestic political decision making.
TL;DR: In this paper, a game-theoretic model for discussing the determination of looting and fighting activity during a civil war between two ethnoregional groups is presented. But the model is restricted to the case of two warlords.
Abstract: A game-theoretic model is analyzed for discussing the determination of looting and fighting activity during a civil war between two ethnoregional groups. The Nash equilibrium of this game emphasizes population size, production capacity and productivity, and access to external funding as the main determinants of the size of the armies and the intensity of looting activity. The Nash equilibrium of the game between the two warlords involves an excessive level of looting. Some lessons are drawn from this framework to bring out the minimum redistribution of resources between groups that must take place in a peaceful equilibrium.
TL;DR: In this article, a political accountability model is developed to explain how the accountability of incumbent democratic leaders to domestic political opposition influences the diplomatic and military policies of governments, and the model is situated within the democratic peace literature and compared with existing theoretical work.
Abstract: A political accountability model is developed to explain how the accountability of incumbent democratic leaders to domestic political opposition influences the diplomatic and military policies of governments. The model is situated within the democratic peace literature and compared with existing theoretical work. Empirically, the hypotheses are tested on a new data set of 348 territorial disputes for the period from 1919 to 1995. Each dispute is divided into three separate stages so that hypotheses about the initiation and outcome of both negotiations and military confrontations, and opposing patterns of war and dispute settlement, can be tested. Results provide strong support for a number of hypotheses concerning the importance of electoral cycles and the strength of opposition parties in explaining patterns of both conflictual and cooperative behavior by democratic states.
TL;DR: For example, this paper found that the more democratic the less democratic member of a conflictual dyad, the more likely it is their dispute will be resolved through a negotiated settlement.
Abstract: The argument that democracies are less belligerent toward one another because of their experience with mediation, negotiation, and compromise at the domestic level suggests that negotiated dispute settlements are more likely between relatively democratic states than other conflicting pairs. Militarized Interstate Dispute data and Polity IIId and Freedom House ratings of democracy are used to examine the propensities of disputants to resolve their grievances through negotiated means. Findings suggest a strong positive influence for mutual democracy. Specifically, the more democratic the less democratic member of a conflictual dyad, the more likely it is their dispute will be resolved through a negotiated settlement. This finding also holds across varying degrees of dyadic relative power and supports existing literature that chronicles the pacific conditioning power of democratic norms for several areas of interstate relations.
TL;DR: In this paper, a fuzzy analysis of statistical evidence (FASE) was used to identify relevant country macrostructural factors that can contribute to different kinds and levels of intensity of conflict and country instabilities.
Abstract: One way to demonstrate progress in a field of scientific inquiry is to show that factors believed to explain some phenomenon can also be used effectively to predict both its occurrence and its nonoccurrence. This study draws on the state strength literature to identify relevant country macrostructural factors that can contribute to different kinds and levels of intensity of conflict and country instabilities. A pattern classification algorithm—fuzzy analysis of statistical evidence (FASE)—is used to analyze the relationships between country macrostructural factors and historical instances of country instability. A split-sample validation design is used to evaluate the ability of FASE to generate competent predictions, using the standard forecasting performance metrics overall accuracy, recall, and precision. The results demonstrate the potential for FASE to accurately forecast not just the occurrence but also the level of intensity of country-specific instabilities out 5 years with about 80% overall accuracy.
TL;DR: In this paper, the influence of advisers on foreign policy processes and choice and on how decision strategies affect foreign policy outcomes are examined using the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making and process-tracing techniques in an experimental setting.
Abstract: The influence of advisers on foreign policy processes and choice and on how decision strategies affect foreign policy outcomes are examined. Using the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making and process-tracing techniques in an experimental setting, the effects of the presence of advisers on strategy selection and choice and the influence of strategy selection on choice in a foreign policy scenario are tested. The findings show that decision makers are highly sensitive to and cognizant of the political ramifications of their decisions. Specifically, political information and advice influenced information processing and foreign policy choices. The findings have significant implications for the study of foreign policy decision making and the understanding of real-world foreign policy decisions.
TL;DR: In this paper, the aggregate changes in public opinion attitudes toward foreign policy issues in three West European countries during the cold war decades (1954-1990) were analyzed, including France, Germany, and Italy.
Abstract: The aggregate changes in public opinion attitudes toward foreign policy issues in three West European countries during the cold war decades (1954-1990) are analyzed. The stability hypothesis is addressed from different angles to ascertain the amount of change in public opinion attitudes toward foreign policy issues in France, Germany, and Italy. Results reveal a low level of volatility in public opinion that corresponds with the findings for the American public. On the other hand, French, German, and Italian public opinion shows a somewhat higher level of fluctuation than in the United States. Attitudes toward NATO, the United States, and the Soviet Union closely reflect the evolution of world politics and therefore represent a reasonable reaction to international events and crises.
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of domestic strife on the likelihood of an international conflict were empirically tested empirically using a rare-events logit model with corrections for temporal dependence.
Abstract: The effects of domestic strife on the likelihood of an international conflict are tested empirically. A rare-events logit model with corrections for temporal dependence to assess whether domestic s...
TL;DR: In this article, Gowa's 1998 article "Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad" is examined in light of issues raised by her empirical analysis.
Abstract: Joanne Gowa's 1998 article “Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad” is examined in light of issues raised by her empirical analysis. Newly available time-series models for event-count data permit consideration of the dynamics of the use-of-force series. It is possible that the relationship between decisions to use force and the major independent variables has changed since 1870. More appropriate data on U.S. uses of force and a wider range of indicators for the major independent variables permit a more convincing test of the hypotheses she presents. The reanalysis supports some of her conclusions, particularly those concerning election cycles and partisanship. However, it also indicates that her analysis underestimated the importance of domestic economic conditions and suggests some important qualifications to her conclusion that international conditions are the main determinant of U.S. decisions to use force.
TL;DR: In this paper, one individual and three collective punishment rules in a public good setting are analyzed and evidence and explanations for differences between the rules concerning punishment intensity, contribution, profit levels, and justice are presented.
Abstract: One individual and three collective punishment rules in a public good setting are analyzed. Evidence and explanations for differences between the rules concerning punishment intensity, contribution, profit levels, and justice are presented. Influences crucial to participants’ support for a collective rule when the individual rule is the status quo are also investigated. Results showthat besides profit differences, the degree of consent required by the collective rule is essential for the degree of support by the participants.
TL;DR: In this paper, the power law of learning is used to explain the behavior of stochastic collusion in three social dilemma games and the analysis shows how the integration of alternative models can uncover underlying principles and lead to a more general theory.
Abstract: Concerns about models of cultural adaptation as analogs of genetic selection have led cognitive game theorists to explore learning-theoretic specifications. Two prominent examples, the Bush-Mosteller stochastic learning model and the Roth-Erev payoff-matching model, are aligned and integrated as special cases of a general reinforcement learning model. Both models predict stochastic collusion as a backward-looking solution to the problem of cooperation in social dilemmas based on a random walk into a self-reinforcing cooperative equilibrium. The integration uncovers hidden assumptions that constrain the generality of the theoretical derivations. Specifically, Roth and Erev assume a "power law of learning"-the curious but plausible tendency for learning to diminish with success and intensify with failure. Computer simulation is used to explore the effects on stochastic collusion in three social dilemma games. The analysis shows how the integration of alternative models can uncover underlying principles and lead to a more general theory.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the hypotheses that receptiveness to dogmas of militant Islam and young age would predict approval of the attacks, and education and income would have no bearing on support for the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Abstract: Lebanese Muslim reactions to the September 11 attacks are assessed using the hypotheses that receptiveness to dogmas of militant Islam and young age would predict approval of the attacks, and education and income, although important in explaining the domestic component of political Islam, would have no bearing on support for the September 11 terrorist attacks. In view of the recent surge of Sunni Muslim militancy, it is proposed that Sunni respondents would show greater support for the attacks than Shi'is. The data were obtained from a stratified random sample consisting of 337 Sunni and Shi'i male and female respondents to an opinion poll conducted in the Greater Beirut area during October and November 2001. The findings verify the proposition that proneness to militant Islam and age predicted approval of the attacks but do not verify the hypothesis that Sunni respondents exceeded Shi'is in approval for the attacks.
TL;DR: In this article, an agent-based model in which economic exchange and military conflict are emergent processes is used to explore the relationship between trade and war, and the results show that an inverse relationship between war and trade emerges from compact geographies with revisionist states.
Abstract: An agent-based model in which economic exchange and military conflict are emergent processes is used to explore the relationship between trade and war. The model of exchange is an applied analysis of the eco- nomics of trading networks. The model of conflict treats war as a breakdown in interstate bargaining due to incomplete information. The simulations explore how initial economic geography, state revisionism, defen- sive advantage, and technological advancement akin to globalization affect both trade and war. The results show that the relationship between trade and war depends on third factors, and an inverse relationship between trade and war emerges from compact geographies with revisionist states.
TL;DR: As a manifestation of its self-reliance doctrine, the state of Israel has acted unilaterally in the military realm throughout its history as discussed by the authors, and several scholars have also linked Israeli actions to elect...
Abstract: As a manifestation of its self-reliance doctrine, the state of Israel has acted unilaterally in the military realm throughout its history. Several scholars have also linked Israeli actions to elect...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the degree to which economic evaluations help to explain attitudes toward peace among Palestinians and Israelis in the years following the 1993 Oslo accords and find that economic orientations have both a direct and indirect impact on attitudes toward negotiations and compromise.
Abstract: This study evaluates the degree to which economic evaluations help to explain attitudes toward peace among Palestinians and Israelis in the years following the 1993 Oslo accords. It first applies insights from political science and economics to the Israeli-Palestinian context, deriving hypotheses that are then tested using survey data from Israel and Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) collected between 1996 and 2001. Findings show that economic orientations have both a direct and indirect impact on attitudes toward negotiations and compromise. On one hand, economic evaluations are directly related to foreign policy attitudes through what appear to be cost-benefit calculations regarding the expected economic consequences of peace. Economic judgments also influence attitudes toward peace indirectly by contributing to levels of confidence in political leaders, which in turn influence the way that citizens assess the peace negotiations in which their leaders are engaged. The Arab-Israeli dispute has played a critical role in shaping the political landscape of the Middle East and has been the focus of considerable social science research. Only a small portion of this research has explored the determinants of popular attitudes toward the conflict, however, and the factors that shape Palestinian public opinion have been particularly neglected. The present study responds to this gap by investigating factors that influence how ordinary Palestinian and Israeli citizens think about the conflict. Understanding popular attitudes toward issues of war and peace may be approached from different theoretical perspectives. The political culture approach, for instance, is prevalent among scholars who argue that shared norms and values are the basis of political attitudes. In the context of the Middle East, this approach often regards religion and religiosity as critical influences on views about conflict, and it often links strong religious attachments to aggressiveness, militancy, and opposition to compromise. We have pursued this approach elsewhere in some detail, focusing on the influence of Islamic orientations and finding that religious piety has little explanatory power among Muslims in Palestine and four other Arab countries (Tessler and Nachtwey 1998).
TL;DR: In this article, the effectiveness of national missile defense (NMD) against various offensive threats is simulated and it is shown that NMD advocates have not made their case that cold war-era deterrence principles are ill suited to U.S. relations with fledgling nuclear states.
Abstract: Armed with a new threat and promising technology, advocates of national missile defense (NMD) have framed the debate by presenting NMD as a break from traditional deterrence principles. The assumption that the United States faces new adversaries that cannot be deterred by U.S. offensive options and whether adversaries can and will use nuclear weapons to coerce the United States, given its inclination and ability to retaliate, are assessed. The effectiveness of NMD against various offensive threats is simulated. Conclusions indicate that NMD advocates have not made their case that cold war-era deterrence principles are ill suited to U.S. relations with fledgling nuclear states and that the expected value of a missile defense of any type and scale is low because it is unlikely to enhance global security above levels offered by retaliatory deterrence.
TL;DR: In contrast, liberal institutionalists assume that individuals are obsessed with relative gains and that cooperation is the exception rather than the norm in international relations as mentioned in this paper, which is not the case.
Abstract: Realists assume that individuals are obsessed with relative gains and that cooperation is the exception rather than the norm in international relations. In contrast, liberal institutionalists assum...