Showing papers in "Journal of Economic Literature in 2014"

The economic importance of financial literacy: theory and evidence

Abstract: This paper undertakes an assessment of a rapidly growing body of economic research on financial literacy. We start with an overview of theoretical research, which casts financial knowledge as a form of investment in human capital. Endogenizing financial knowledge has important implications for welfare, as well as policies intended to enhance levels of financial knowledge in the larger population. Next, we draw on recent surveys to establish how much (or how little) people know and identify the least financially savvy population subgroups. This is followed by an examination of the impact of financial literacy on economic decision making in the United States and elsewhere. While the literature is still young, conclusions may be drawn about the effects and consequences of financial illiteracy and what works to remedy these gaps. A final section offers thoughts on what remains to be learned if researchers are to better inform theoretical and empirical models as well as public policy. (JEL A20, D14, G11, I20, J26)

What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature

Abstract: A rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature, precipitation, and windstorms influence economic outcomes. These studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output, industrial output, labor productivity, energy demand, health, conflict, and economic growth, among other outcomes. By harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit, these studies help credibly identify (i) the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy, (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations, and (iii) nonlinear effects of weather variables. This paper reviews the new literature with two purposes. First, we summarize recent work, providing a guide to its methodologies, datasets, and findings. Second, we consider applications of the new literature, including insights for the "damage function" within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change. ( JEL C51, D72, O13, Q51, Q54)

The Choice between Formal and Informal Intellectual Property: A Review

Abstract: We survey the economic literature, both theoretical and empirical, on the choice of intellectual property protection by firms. Our focus is on the trade-offs between using patents and disclosing versus the use of secrecy, although we also look briefly at the use of other means of formal intellectual property protection.

News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

Abstract: There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents’ information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. ( JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Abstract: We review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi...

Behavioral Contract Theory

Abstract: This review provides a critical survey of psychology-and-economics (“behavioral-economics”) research in contract theory. First, I introduce the theories of individual decision making most ...

From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History behind China's Economic Boom

Abstract: China’s long-term economic dynamics pose a formidable challenge to economic historians. The Qing Empire (1644 –1911), the world’ s largest national economy before 1800, experienced a tripling of population during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries with no signs of diminishing per capita income. While the timing remains in dispute, a vast gap emerged between newly rich industrial nations and China’s lagging economy in the wake of the Industrial Revolution. Only with an unprecedented growth spurt beginning in the late 1970s did this great divergence separating China from the global leaders substantially diminish, allowing China to regain its former standing among the world’s largest economies. This essay develops an integrated framework for understanding that entire history, including both the divergence and the recent convergent trend. We explain how deeply embedded political and economic institutions that contributed to a long process of extensive growth before 1800 subsequently prevented China from capturing the benefits associated with the Industrial Revolution. During the twentieth century, the gradual erosion of these historic constraints and of new obstacles erected by socialist planning eventually opened the door to China’s current boom. Our analysis links China’s recent development to important elements of its past, while using recent success to provide fresh perspectives on the critical obstacles undermining earlier modernization efforts, and their eventual removal. (JEL N15, N45, O11, O47, P21, P24, P26)

The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation

Abstract: Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. In this survey, we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers. We first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of U.S. trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend-based inflation gaps. We then construct a Generalized New Keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation. In this model, an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations. This analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long-run inflation target. ( JEL E12, E31, E32, E52, E58)

The Return of "Patrimonial Capitalism": A Review of Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century

Abstract: Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty provides a unified theory of the functioning of the capitalist economy by linking theories of economic growth and functional and personal income distributions. It argues, based on the long-run historical data series, that the forces of economic divergence (including rising income inequality) tend to dominate in capitalism. It regards the twentieth century as an exception to this rule and proposes policies that would make capitalism sustainable in the twenty-first century. ( JEL D31, D33, E25, N10, N30, P16)

Addressing Global Environmental Externalities: Transaction Costs Considerations

Abstract: Is there a way to understand why some global environmental externalities are addressed effectively, whereas others are not? The transaction costs of defining the property rights to mitigation benefits and costs is a useful framework for such analysis. This approach views international cooperation as a contractual process among country leaders to assign those property rights. Leaders cooperate when it serves domestic interests to do so. The demand for property rights comes from those who value and stand to gain from multilateral action. Property rights are supplied by international agreements that specify resource access and use, assign costs and benefits including outlining the size and duration of compensating transfer payments, and determining who will pay and who will receive them. Four factors raise the transaction costs of assigning property rights: (i) scientific uncertainty regarding mitigation benefits and costs; (ii) varying preferences and perceptions across heterogeneous populations; (iii) asymmetric information; and (iv) the extent of compliance and new entry. These factors are used to examine the role of transaction costs in the establishment and allocation of property rights to provide globally valued national parks, implement the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, execute the Montreal Protocol to manage emissions that damage the stratospheric ozone layer, set limits on harvest of highly-migratory ocean fish stocks, and control greenhouse gas emissions. ( JEL D23, P14, Q22, Q51, Q54, Q58)

The Changing Role of Government in Financing Health Care: An International Perspective

Abstract: This paper explores the changing role of government involvement in health care financing policy outside the United States. It provides a review of the economics literature in this area to elucidate the implications of recent policy changes on efficiency, costs, and quality. Our review reveals that there has been some convergence in policies adopted across countries to improve financing incentives and encourage efficient use of health services. In the case of risk pooling, all countries with competing pools experience similar difficulties with selection and are adopting more sophisticated forms of risk adjustment. In the case of hospital competition, the key drivers of success appear to be what is competed on and measurable, rather than whether the system is public or private. In the case of both the success of performance-related pay for providers and issues resulting from wait times, evidence differs within and across jurisdictions. However, the evidence does suggest that some governments have effectively reduced wait times when they have chosen explicitly to focus on achieving this goal. Many countries are exploring new ways of generating revenues for health care to enable them to cope with significant cost growth, but there is little evidence to suggest that collection mechanisms alone are effective in managing the cost or quality of care. ( JEL H51, I11, I18)

Rethinking the Principles of Bank Regulation: A Review of Admati and Hellwig's The Bankers' New Clothes

Abstract: In an important new book, Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical questions about bank regulation. These questions are reviewed and discussed here, with a focus on how the problems of maintaining a stable financial system depend on fundamental problems of information and incentives in financial intermediation. It is argued that financial regulatory reforms can be reliably effective only when their basic principles are understood by informed citizens, and that Admati and Hellwig's book is a major contribution toward this goal, as it clearly lays out the essential case for requiring banks to have more equity.

The Limits of Inference with Theory: A Review of Wolpin (2013) †

Abstract: This essay reviews Kenneth I Wolpin’s (2013) monograph The Limits of Inference without Theory , which arose from lectures he presented at the Cowles Foundation in 2010 in honor of Tjalling Koopmans While I readily agree with Wolpin’s basic premise that empirical work that eschews the role of economic theory faces unnecessary self-imposed limits relative to empirical work that embraces and tries to test and improve economic theory, it is important to be aware that the use of economic theory is not a panacea I point out that there are also serious limits to inference with theory: 1) there may be no truly “structural” (policy invariant) parameters, a key assumption underpinning the structural econometric approach that Wolpin and the Cowles Foundation have championed; 2) there is a curse of dimensionality that makes it very difficult for us to elucidate the detailed implications of economic theo ries, which is necessary to empirically implement and test these theories; 3) there is an identification problem that makes it impossible to decide between competing theories without imposing ad hoc auxiliary assumptions (such as parametric functional form assumptions); and 4) there is a problem of multiplicity and indeterminacy of equilibria that limits the predictive empirical content of many economic theories I conclude that though these are very challenging problems, I agree with Wolpin and the Cowles Foundation that economists have far more to gain by trying to incorporate economic theory into empirical work and test and improve our theories than by rejecting theory and presuming that all interesting economic issues can be answered by well-designed controlled, randomized experiments and assuming that difficult questions of causality and evaluation of alternative hypothetical policies can be resolved by simply allowing the “data to speak for itself” ( JEL B41, C18)

A Flourishing Economist: A Review Essay on Edmund Phelps's Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change †

Abstract: In his recent Mass Flourishings, Edmund Phelps makes a strong and eloquent plea for a more dynamic economy, which he sees not only as a key for economic performance, but also as necessary for what he calls "the good life." This review essay evaluates those claims in the light of economic history.

The New Science of Cities by Michael Batty: The Opinion of an Economist

Abstract: Cities are the cradle of a wide range of cultural, social, and technological innovations that are at the heart of modern economic growth and development. Half of humanity today lives in cities but, until the last two decades, economists have paid much less attention to cities than have other social scientists. By contrast, geographers have long studied the role of cities in human affairs. Michael Batty, a distinguished scholar in the field of human geography, has recently written The New Science of Cities, a synthesis of his work and of some other prominent urban geographers. A review of his book is the first objective of this essay. The second is to discuss and compare the tools and concepts developed by urban economists with those of urban geographers in the hope of triggering a fruitful debate between those two groups of social scientists.

The Ethics of Efficient Markets and Commons Tragedies: A Review of John Broome's Climate Matters: Ethics in a Warming World

Abstract: What are the ethical implications of our contributions to global warming on an individual level? In his extended essay, John Broome analyzes the moral implications of our imposing damages on future generations through our greenhouse-gas emissions. He argues that we as individuals owe restitution to those who are in the future damaged by these unjust acts. He suggests that restitution can be accomplished by completely offsetting emissions and thereby having a zero carbon footprint. This review examines the force of his arguments and suggests that off-setting emissions on an individual basis is an imperfect substitute for collective action or more encompassing contributions to those hurt by our externalities. (JEL D63, Q21, Q54, Q58)

Strategy in History and (versus?) in Economics: A Review of Lawrence Freedman's Strategy: A History

Abstract: This essay reviews Lawrence Freedman's book "Strategy: A History". The main themes—definitions, strategies in war, business, politics, and revolutions—are overviewed. The value of game-theoretic thinking for practical strategy is assessed. A critical discussion of some concepts and dichotomies emphasized by Freedman, e.g., strategy is governed by the starting point, not the end point, and of the role of stories and scripts in strategy, follows. (JEL A11, A12, C70, D74)

What's the Future of Public Higher Education? A Review Essay on Gary C. Fethke and Andrew J. Policano's Public No More: A New Path to Excellence for America's Public Universities

Abstract: Gary Fethke and Andrew Policano's book "Public No More: A New Path to Excellence for America's Public Universities" paints a picture of a future for public research universities that is very different than what many people will want to see. Their message is that the financial and governance models under which public universities have operated have broken down and that new models are required. While I do not always agree with their prescriptions, I argue that private research universities face many of the same issues as their public counterparts and that this book deserves to be widely read by all people concerned with the future of American higher education. (JEL H75, I22, I23, I28)

Review Essay on Charles F. Manski's Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions

Abstract: Public policy setting often involves quantitative choices with quantitative outcomes. Yet unqualified statements about the precise consequences of alternative choices characterize much of the policy analysis bearing on these decisions. Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions by Charles F. Manski characterizes and richly illustrates the nature of this unwarranted certitude. It details specific constructive alternatives on which the economics profession has achieved varying degrees of consensus. Those in our profession charged with the education of future policy analysts should consider using it and how to round out its presentation of decision making from their own perspective. ( JEL D02, D04, D80, E61)

A Review of Peter Temin's The Roman Market Economy

Abstract: Herein, I review Peter Temin's book, "The Roman Market Economy", and take the occasion to alert economists to the exciting work that is being done and could be done in the economic history of the ancient world. (JEL C80, N01, N13, N73)