Showing papers in "Journal of Economic Literature in 2015"

Culture and Institutions

Abstract: A growing body of empirical work measuring different types of cultural traits has shown that culture matters for a variety of economic outcomes. This paper focuses on one specific aspect of the relevance of culture: its relationship to institutions. We review work with a theoretical, empirical, and historical bent to assess the presence of a two-way causal effect between culture and institutions. ( JEL D02, D72, I32, J12, Z13)

The Industrial Organization of Health-Care Markets

Abstract: The U.S. health-care sector is large and growing—health-care spending in 2011 amounted to $2.7 trillion and 18 percent of GDP. Approximately half of health-care output is allocated via markets. In this paper, we analyze the industrial organization literature on health-care markets, focusing on the impact of competition on price, quality, and treatment decisions for health-care providers and health insurers. We conclude with a discussion of research opportunities for industrial organization economists, including opportunities created by the U.S. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Envirodevonomics: A Research Agenda for an Emerging Field

Abstract: †Environmental quality in many developing countries is poor and generates substantial health and productivity costs. However, the few existing measures of marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for environmental quality improvements indicate low valuations by affected households. This paper argues that this seeming paradox is the central puzzle at the intersection of environmental and development economics: Given poor environmental quality and high health burdens in developing countries, why is MWTP seemingly so low? We develop a conceptual framework for understanding this puzzle and propose four potential explanations for why environmental quality is so poor: (1) due to low income levels, individuals value increases in income more than marginal improvements in environmental quality; (2) the marginal costs of environmental quality improvements are high; (3) political economy factors undermine efficient policymaking; and (4) market failures such as weak property rights and missing capital markets distort MWTP for environmental quality. We review the literature on each explanation and discuss how the framework applies to climate change, which is perhaps the most important issue at the intersection of environment and development economics. The paper concludes with a list of promising and unanswered research questions for the emerging sub-field of “envirodevonomics.” ( JEL I15, O10, O44, Q50)

The Nature of the Savings Function in Developing Countries: A Survey of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature

Abstract: THE savings rate (marginal or average) is regarded as a key performance indicator by development economists, and foreign aid practitioners admonish their clients to increase their savings ratio as a primary condition for achieving a satisfactory rate of economic growth. However, not only have questions been raised regarding the significance of the savings effort as an independent determinant of economic progress, but the formulation of policies designed to increase the savings propensity has suffered from a dearth of knowledge regarding the nature of the savings function in developing countries. A number of alternative savings hypotheses (derived mainly from the literature relating to developed economies) have been advanced, but the paucity of reliable data has made it difficult to test these hypotheses and obtain results which warrant a reasonable degree of confidence. The purpose of this article is: a) to review the theoretical and empirical literature on the savings function in developing countries; b) to assess critically the findings with respect to the major hypotheses; and c) to summarize the state of our knowledge on this important topic. We shall begin with a brief review of the nature of the data on savings in developing countries with which economic analysts must work.

The Transition According to Cambridge, Mass.

Abstract: This paper reviews the NBER's "The Transition in Eastern Europe." This book's 18 essays examine privatization, stabilization, fiscal policies, the nascent private sector, bankruptcy, foreign trade, and investment, etc. Individual country performance occupies six studies. These essays, which are of high quality, provide a cross-section of the literature on transition. However, the book's stronger conclusions are not supported by strong evidence. Two conclusions, unemphasized by contributors, emerge. Expectations, which reflect the theories used to design standard reforms, are often unfulfilled during reforms. A plausible explanation for the misplaced expectations is the ahistorical approach of those theories.

Research on Teaching Economics to Undergraduates

Abstract: This survey summarizes the main research findings about teaching economics to undergraduates. After briefly reviewing the history of research on undergraduate economic education, it discusses the status of the economics major—numbers and trends, goals, coursework, outcomes, and the principles courses. Some economic theory is used to explain the likely effects of pedagogical decisions of faculty and the learning choices that students make. Major results from empirical research are reviewed from the professor perspective on such topics as teaching methods, online technology, class size, and textbooks. Studies of student learning are discussed in relation to study time, grades, attendance, math aptitude, and cheating. The last section discusses changes in the composition of faculty who teach undergraduate economics and effects from changes in instructional technology and then presents findings from the research about measuring teaching effectiveness and the value of teacher training. ( JEL A22, I23, J44)

Is the WTO passe

Abstract: The WTO has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand-off, where the WTO has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage, and is now passing the baton to PTAs to finish the job? This paper surveys a growing economics literature on international trade agreements and argues on this basis that the WTO is not passe. Rather, and subject to some caveats, this survey of research to date suggests that the WTO warrants strong support while a more cautious view of PTAs seems appropriate.

Health and the Economy in the United States from 1750 to the Present

Abstract: I discuss the health transition in the United States, bringing new data to bear on health indicators, and investigating the changing relationship between health, income, and the environment. I argue that scientific advances played an outsize role and that health improvements were largest among the poor. Health improvements were not a precondition for modern economic growth. The gains to health are largest when the economy has moved from "brawn" to "brains" because this is when the wage returns to education are high, leading the healthy to obtain more education. More education may improve use of health knowledge, producing a virtuous cycle.

Immigration and Globalization: A Review Essay

Abstract: This essay revisits the argument that the removal of worldwide immigration restrictions would induce a very large increase in world GDP. The recent books Exodus: How Migration is Changing Our World by Paul Collier and The Price of Rights: Regulating International Labor Migration by Martin Ruhs raise a number of questions about the underlying economic model. The essay shows how these concerns can greatly attenuate the predicted gains.

The Beveridge Curve: A Survey

Abstract: Important progress has been made in economists' understanding of the Beveridge curve, from its measurement to its expression in canonical labor market models. Yet enduring puzzles remain. Chief among these are the empirical role of vacancies in the recruitment process; the amplitude, comovement, and persistence of cyclical unemployment-vacancy dynamics; and the sources of lateral shifts in the Beveridge curve. The synthesis of these themes identifies several priorities for ongoing research, including the role of entry costs into vacancy creation in shaping Beveridge dynamics; the cyclicality of search intensity, both off and on the job, and its relation to participation and job-to-job transitions; the theory and measurement of mismatch; and the sources of hysteresis in unemployment flows.

Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern

Abstract: Federal statistical agencies in the United States and analogous agencies elsewhere commonly report official economic statistics as point estimates, without accompanying measures of error. Users of the statistics may incorrectly view them as error free or may incorrectly conjecture error magnitudes. This paper discusses strategies to mitigate misinterpretation of official statistics by communicating uncertainty to the public. Sampling error can be measured using established statistical principles. The challenge is to satisfactorily measure the various forms of nonsampling error. I find it useful to distinguish transitory statistical uncertainty, permanent statistical uncertainty, and conceptual uncertainty. I illustrate how each arises as the Bureau of Economic Analysis periodically revises GDP estimates, the Census Bureau generates household income statistics from surveys with nonresponse, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics seasonally adjusts employment statistics. I anchor my discussion of communication of uncertainty in the contribution of Oskar Morgenstern (1963a), who argued forcefully for agency publication of error estimates for official economic statistics.

Melding Sociology and Economics: James Coleman's Foundations of Social Theory*

Abstract: JHEN PUBLISHERS receive copies of reviews of their books, they quickly scan them for possible quotes for use in promotional materials. They are often frustrated to discover that a reviewer really liked the book, yet never managed to say so in a clear, unequivocal way. The people at Harvard University Press will experience no such frustration with this essay on James Coleman's application of rational choice theory to the classical issues of sociology. Professor Coleman's Foundations of Social Theory is a masterwork. Epic in scope, it is clear, engaging, and forcefully argued. Traditional sociologists will be unable to ignore its bold new agenda for their discipline. And the book will have a lasting impact on economics, political science, psychology, and other disciplines concerned with human behavior. Having issued this ringing endorsement of the work as a whole, I hasten to add that there are many points on which I find myself in substantial disagreement with Coleman. On some occasions, he pushes the rational choice theory too far; on others, not nearly far enough. But one of his great virtues is his remarkable willingness to articulate clear theories and commit himself to their predictions. In the process, he leaves himself open to being proved wrong, and indeed he sometimes is wrong. Yet how much more satisfying is his approach than the familiar alternative of constructing vague ad hoc explanations to fit known fact patterns. Foundations of Social Theory is organized into five parts. Part I, Elementary Actions and Relations, introduces the basic building blocks of the theory-actors, resources, interests, individual rights, and relatonships involving authority and trust. Part II's focus is the "micro-tomacro transition"; it applies the theory of rational individual behavior to the units developed in Part I to deduce how systems of actors will behave. Here, Coleman is concerned with social exchange, crowd behavior, and the emergence of social norms. In Part III, Coleman constructs a theory in which the principal actor is not the individual but the corporation. His aim is to explain how and why individuals empower formal organizations to act on their behalf, and the means whereby such authority can be revoked. Part IV, entitled Modern Society, employs the theories developed earlier to shed light on developments in contemporary social and economic life. Coleman devotes Part * James S. Coleman. Foundations of Social Theory. Cambridge, Mass. and London: Harvard University Press, Belknap Press, 1990. Pp. xvi, 993. ISBN 0-674-312250-2.

A Long Way Coming: Designing Centralized Markets with Privately Informed Buyers and Sellers

Abstract: We discuss the economics literature relevant to the design of centralized two-sided market mechanisms for environments in which both buyers and sellers have private information. The existing literature and the history of spectrum auctions, including the incentive auction currently being designed by the FCC, can be employed to ana- lyze such mechanisms. We compare the revenue- efficiency trade-off in an environ- ment with private information on one side of the market versus the trade-off with pri- vate information on both sides of the market; we provide an impossibility theorem for the efficient allocation of goods using a deficit-free mechanism when there is private information on both sides of the market; we discuss practical deficit-free mechanisms for various environments with two-sided private information; and we provide a syn- thesis to guide market design efforts and related research going forward. (JEL D44, D47, D82, H82)

Revisiting Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis

Abstract: Paul Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis played a major role in defining how economic theory was undertaken for many years after the Second World War. This paper fills out Samuelson's account of the book's origins and corrects some details, making clear his debt to E. B. Wilson and establishes that turning the thesis into a book was a long process. The contents of the book and its reception are then reviewed.

The Cambridge History of "Capitalism"

Abstract: This review essay of the two-volume Cambridge History of Capitalism (2014), edited by Larry Neal and Jeffrey G. Williamson, is divided into three parts. First, I describe three chapters from the second volume that I recommend for all economists to add depth to their understanding of the world economy today. Robert C. Allen analyzes the world distribution of income; Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung discuss the history of business groups; and Peter Lindert surveys private and public programs to help the poor. In each case, they analyze historical backgrounds that illuminate current issues. Second, I criticize the definition of capitalism used in these volumes as too expansive to be useful. I argue that this definition mars the essays in first volume by stimulating a fruitless search for capitalism in the millennium before the Industrial Revolution. Third, I describe the essays in this reference work starting from the most recent and ending with those about antiquity.

A Review of Angus Deaton's The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality †

Abstract: This book explores the relationship between the material standard of living and health, both across countries and over time. Above all, Deaton is interested in the question of whether income growth contributes significantly to better health. His answer is no: saving lives in poor countries is not expensive, and there are many episodes of massive health improvements in the absence of income growth. As an alternative, he argues that the cross-sectional correlation between health and income is induced by variation in institutional quality, while over time, parallel improvements in income and health have been a result of advancing knowledge.

Stress for Success: A Review of Timothy Geithner's Financial Crisis Memoir

Abstract: Timothy Geithner's memoir of the financial crisis of 2007-08—Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises—is an important historical document offering details of how policies were formed and implemented during the crisis, showing the political constraints, and offering lessons for future crises. Walter Bagehot's classic rule for fighting crises—that the central bank should lend against good collateral at a high rate—is passive and incomplete. Geithner argues for the use of overwhelming force to reestablish confidence. Also, although the Federal Reserve's new crisis lending programs needed to be anonymous so as not to reveal weak banks' identities—"stigma"—the stress tests during the crisis did reveal information that may have been useful in reestablishing confidence.

A Review of The Age of Sustainable Development by Jeffrey Sachs

Abstract: How does economic science inform the study of sustainable development? In his new book, Jeffrey D. Sachs analyzes the challenges of achieving economic growth while protecting the environment and achieving an equitable distribution of resources. This review presents an overview of this ambitious book with special emphasis on the role of the objectives of local and national leaders and their incentives to pursue the sustainability agenda. Given the huge migration to cities now playing out in the developing world, special attention is paid to the role of urbanization as a cause of sustainability opportunities and challenges.

Learning from Failure: A Review of Peter Schuck's Why Government Fails So Often: And How It Can Do Better

Abstract: Peter Schuck catalogs an overwhelming list of US government failures. He points to both structural problems (culture and institutions) and incentives. Despairing of cultural change, Schuck focuses on incentives. He relies on Charles Wolf ’s theory of nonmarket failures in which “internalities” replace the heavily-studied market failure from externalities (Wolf 1979). Internalities are evidence of a discord between the public goals by which a program is defended and the private goals of its administrators. What might economists contribute? We suggest that economists have neglected internalities because they take group goals as exogenously determined and we defend an alternative tradition in which group goals are endogenously determined. ( JEL A11, D72, D82)

Tiger Parenting and American Inequality: An Essay on Chua and Rubenfeld's The Triple Package: How Three Unlikely Traits Explain the Rise and Fall of Cultural Groups in America

Abstract: The role of culture in the creation and persistence of racial and ethnic inequalities has been the focus of considerable controversy in the social sciences. In The Triple Package: How Three Unlikely Traits Explain the Rise and Fall of Cultural Groups in America, a new book intended for a popular audience, "tiger mom" Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld argue that relatively successful ethnic, religious, and national origin groups in the United States possess a common set of culturally determined traits that drive this success: a sense of group superiority, individual insecurity, and good impulse control. The book is an unscholarly romp through fields of ethnic stereotypes and immigrant anxiety that relies on anecdote, rather than data, and that ignores the selectivity of immigrant flows. In their insistence on the need for the whole triple package, however, the authors raise issues relevant to current research on noncognitive skills—that there are important trait-environment interactions in the determinants of economic success, and that the source and impact of aspirations deserves greater attention.

Robert E. Lucas Jr.'s Collected Papers on Monetary Theory

Abstract: This paper is a critical review of and a reader's guide to a collection of papers by Robert E. Lucas, Jr. about fruitful ways of using general equilibrium theories to understand measured economic aggregates. These beautifully written and wisely argued papers integrated macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and econometrics in ways that restructured big parts of macroeconomic research.

Racial Realism: A Review Essay on John Skrentny's After Civil Rights

Abstract: In his valuable contribution, After Civil Rights, John Skrentny shows that in many sectors of the labor market, race is used in ways that were unanticipated when the 1964 Civil Rights Act was enacted. With separate chapters on the professions and business, the public sector, media and entertainment, and the low-skill market, he demonstrates that the new racial realism is widespread, generally has some justification from social scientific research, and is usually inconsistent with judicial decisions. I review the racially realistic practices (racial matching, increasing diversity, racial signaling, and racial characteristics) and discuss their implications for labor economics and for policy.

The Science, Economics, and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Review of The Climate Casino by William Nordhaus

Abstract: The problem of global climate change presents overwhelming factual, analytical, and normative challenges. Nordhaus surveys this terrain bravely and mostly successfully. He explains the scientific/economic consensus that the planet is warming, that people are responsible, that the consequences are bad, and that immediate action is benefit/cost justified. He also discusses the efficient policy response, and the challenges of achieving coordinated global action. His approach is mostly that of standard neo-classical economics, and some of the limitations of that paradigm in this context are not addressed. But overall, The Climate Casino provides an excellent self-contained introduction to the subject

Current Federal Reserve Policy under the Lens of Economic History : A Review Essay

Abstract: This review essay reviews the volume edited by Owen Humpage, Current Federal Reserve Policy under the Lens of Economic History: Essays to Commemorate the Federal Reserve System’s Centennial, and provides a broader perspective on central-banking issues. The papers in the Humpage volume address various aspects of central banking history, money, and private banking, with a focus on putting recent Fed policies in perspective. The topics covered include the role of the central bank as lender of last resort, the effects of open-market operations versus central-bank lending, central-bank independence, the political economy of monetary unions, financial crises, the effects of unconventional monetary policies, commodity monies, and the Canadian financial system as a natural experiment.

A Review of William Easterly's The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor †

Abstract: William Easterly marshals yet another brilliant critique of established development policies, with a focus on the experts' excessive focus on state-led policies and goals (a la Myrdal) and ignorance of bottom-up solutions, including technology and individual rights (a la Hayek). It suggests a world where success occurs in spite of nation-states. Yet not all bottom-up leads to success, and the worst disasters, as in civil violence, occur where states fail. Easterly highlights the important links between success and individual freedom and opportunity. He fails to note that myriad impoverished individuals cannot exercise these freedoms due to low expectations or compromised rights.

Jon Elster's Securities against Misrule: Juries, Assemblies, Elections: A Review Essay

Abstract: The standard economic approach to designing institutions for collective decision making recognizes individuals’ strategically rational motivations for misrepresentation and asks how best, given an objective function, to design a set of incentives and constraints to internalize or negate such motivations. Securities Against Misrule offers, in the author’s phrase, an “essay in persuasion” to the effect that such an approach is fundamentally misguided. Instead, Elster argues for a behavioral approach centered on designing institutions for good decision making, rather than good outcomes, by individuals whose actions are chronically subject to emotional, self-interested, and prejudicial distortions. ( JEL D02, D71, D72, D82)