Showing papers in "Journal of Finance in 2014"

Does Stock Liquidity Enhance or Impede Firm Innovation

Abstract: We aim to tackle the longstanding debate on whether stock liquidity enhances or impedes firm innovation This topic is of interest because innovation is crucial for firm- and national-level competitiveness and stock liquidity can be altered by financial market regulations Using a difference-in-differences approach that relies on the exogenous variation in liquidity generated by regulatory changes, we find that an increase in liquidity causes a reduction in future innovation We identify two possible mechanisms through which liquidity impedes innovation: increased exposure to hostile takeovers and higher presence of institutional investors who do not actively gather information or monitor

Measuring Readability in Financial Disclosures

Abstract: Defining and measuring readability in the context of financial disclosures becomes important with the increasing use of textual analysis and the Securities and Exchange Commission's plain English initiative. We propose defining readability as the effective communication of valuation-relevant information. The Fog Index�the most commonly applied readability measure�is shown to be poorly specified in financial applications. Of Fog's two components, one is misspecified and the other is difficult to measure. We report that 10-K document file size provides a simple readability proxy that outperforms the Fog Index, does not require document parsing, facilitates replication, and is correlated with alternative readability constructs.

Product Market Threats, Payouts, and Financial Flexibility

Abstract: We examine how product market threats influence firm payout policy and cash holdings. Using firms' product text descriptions, we develop new measures of competitive threats. Our primary measure, product market fluidity, captures changes in rival firms' products relative to the firm's products. We show that fluidity decreases firm propensity to make payouts via dividends or repurchases and increases the cash held by firms, especially for firms with less access to financial markets. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that firms' financial policies are significantly shaped by product market threats and dynamics.

The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion

Abstract: We analyze the transmission of the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis to 415 country-industry equity portfolios We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of contagion While we find evidence of contagion from the United States and the global financial sector, the effects are small By contrast, there has been substantial contagion from domestic markets to individual domestic portfolios, with its severity inversely related to the quality of countries� economic fundamentals This confirms the �wake-up call� hypothesis, with markets focusing more on country-specific characteristics during the crisis

A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk

Abstract: We model a loop between sovereign and bank credit risk. A distressed financial sector induces government bailouts, whose cost increases sovereign credit risk. Increased sovereign credit risk in turn weakens the financial sector by eroding the value of its government guarantees and bond holdings. Using credit default swap (CDS) rates on European sovereigns and banks, we show that bailouts triggered the rise of sovereign credit risk in 2008. We document that post-bailout changes in sovereign CDS explain changes in bank CDS even after controlling for aggregate and bank-level determinants of credit spreads, confirming the sovereign-bank loop.

Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks

Abstract: This paper quanties how variation in real economic activity and ination in the U.S. inuenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. To accomplish this we develop a novel arbitrage-free DTSM in which macroeconomic risks{ in particular, real output and ination risks{ impact bond investment decisions separately from information about the shape of the yield curve. Estimates of our preferred macro-DTSM over the twenty-three year period from 1985 through 2007 reveal that unspanned macro risks explained a substantial proportion of the variation in forward terms premiums. Unspanned macro risks accounted for nearly 90% of the conditional variation in short-dated forward term premiums, with unspanned real economic growth being the key driving factor. Over horizons beyond three years, these eects were entirely attributable to unspanned ination. Using our model, we also reassess some of Chairman Bernanke’s remarks on the interplay between term premiums, the shape of the yield curve, and macroeconomic activity.

Do Peer Firms Affect Corporate Financial Policy

Abstract: We show that peer firms play an important role in determining corporate capital structures and financial policies In large part, firms' financing decisions are responses to the financing decisions and, to a lesser extent, the characteristics of peer firms These peer effects are more important for capital structure determination than most previously identified determinants Furthermore, smaller, less successful firms are highly sensitive to their larger, more successful peers, but not vice versa We also quantify the externalities generated by peer effects, which can amplify the impact of changes in exogenous determinants on leverage by over 70%

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Abstract: Using a large and unique patent-merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.

Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns

Abstract: Financial intermediaries trade frequently in many markets using sophisticated models. Their marginal value of wealth should therefore provide a more informative stochastic discount factor (SDF) than that of a representative consumer. Guided by theory, we use shocks to the leverage of securities broker-dealers to construct an intermediary SDF. Intuitively, deteriorating funding conditions are associated with deleveraging and high marginal value of wealth. Our single-factor model prices size, book-to-market, momentum, and bond portfolios with an R2 of 77% and an average annual pricing error of 1%�performing as well as standard multifactor benchmarks designed to price these assets.

The Real Impact of Improved Access to Finance: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the impact of access to finance on poverty. It highlights an important channel through which access affects poverty�the labor market. The paper exploits the opening of Banco Azteca in Mexico, a unique �natural experiment� in which over 800 bank branches opened almost simultaneously in preexisting Elektra stores. Importantly, the bank has focused on previously underserved low-income clients. Our key finding is a sizeable effect of access to finance on labor market activity and income levels, especially among low-income individuals and those located in areas with lower preexisting bank penetration.

Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions

Abstract: We present a model of sovereign debt in which, contrary to conventional wisdom, government defaults are costly because they destroy the balance sheets of domestic banks. In our model, better financial institutions allow banks to be more leveraged, thereby making them more vulnerable to sovereign defaults. Our predictions: government defaults should lead to declines in private credit, and these declines should be larger in countries where financial institutions are more developed and banks hold more government bonds. In these same countries, government defaults should be less likely. Using a large panel of countries, we find evidence consistent with these predictions. WHY DO GOVERNMENTS REPAY their debts? Conventional wisdom holds that they

Refinancing Risk and Cash Holdings

Abstract: We find that firms mitigate refinancing risk by increasing their cash holdings and saving cash from cash flows. The maturity of firms� long-term debt has shortened markedly, and this shortening explains a large fraction of the increase in cash holdings over time. Consistent with the inference that cash reserves are particularly valuable for firms with refinancing risk, we document that the value of these reserves is higher for such firms and that they mitigate underinvestment problems. Our findings imply that refinancing risk is a key determinant of cash holdings and highlight the interdependence of a firm's financial policy decisions.

The Real Effects of Government‐Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Abstract: Using plant-level data for Brazilian manufacturing firms, this paper provides evidence that government control over banks leads to significant political influence over the real decisions of firms. I find that firms eligible for government bank lending expand employment in politically attractive regions near elections. These expansions are associated with additional (favorable) borrowing from government banks. Further, these persistent expansions take place just before competitive elections, and are associated with lower future employment growth by firms in other regions. The analysis suggests that politicians in Brazil use bank lending to shift employment towards politically attractive regions and away from unattractive regions.

The Importance of Industry Links in Merger Waves

Abstract: We represent the economy as a network of industries connected through customer and supplier trade flows. Using this network topology, we find that stronger product market connections lead to a greater incidence of cross-industry mergers. Furthermore, mergers propagate in waves across the network through customer-supplier links. Merger activity transmits to close industries quickly and to distant industries with a delay. Finally, economy-wide merger waves are driven by merger activity in industries that are centrally located in the product market network. Overall, we show that the network of real economic transactions helps to explain the formation and propagation of merger waves.

Liquidity Measurement Problems in Fast, Competitive Markets: Expensive and Cheap Solutions

Abstract: Do fast, competitive markets yield liquidity measurement problems when using the popular Monthly Trade and Quote (MTAQ) database? Yes. MTAQ yields distorted measures of spreads, trade location, and price impact compared with the expensive Daily Trade and Quote (DTAQ) database. These problems are driven by (1) withdrawn quotes, (2) second (versus millisecond) time stamps, and (3) other causes, including canceled quotes. The expensive solution, using DTAQ, is first-best. For financially constrained researchers, the cheap solution—using MTAQ with our new Interpolated Time technique, adjusting for withdrawn quotes, and deleting economically nonsensical states—is second-best. These solutions change research inferences.

The Media and the Diffusion of Information in Financial Markets: Evidence from Newspaper Strikes

Abstract: The media are increasingly recognized as key players in financial markets. I investigate their causal impact on trading and price formation by examining national newspaper strikes in several countries. Trading volume falls 12% on strike days. The dispersion of stock returns and their intraday volatility are reduced by 7%, while aggregate returns are unaffected. Moreover, analysis of return predictability indicates that newspapers propagate news from the previous day. These findings demonstrate that the media contribute to the efficiency of the stock market by improving the dissemination of information among investors and its incorporation into stock prices.

Who Writes the News? Corporate Press Releases during Merger Negotiations

Abstract: Firms have an incentive to manage media coverage to influence their stock prices during important corporate events. Using comprehensive data on media coverage and merger negotiations, we find that bidders in stock mergers originate substantially more news stories after the start of merger negotiations, but before the public announcement. This strategy generates a short-lived run-up in bidders' stock prices during the period when the stock exchange ratio is determined, which substantially impacts the takeover price. Our results demonstrate that the timing and content of financial media coverage may be biased by firms seeking to manipulate their stock price.

The TIPS-treasury bond puzzle

Abstract: We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation-swapped Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can differ by more than $20 per $100 notional. Treasury bonds are almost always overvalued relative to TIPS. Total TIPS-Treasury mispricing has exceeded $56 billion, representing nearly 8% of the total amount of TIPS outstanding. We find direct evidence that the mispricing narrows as additional capital flows into the markets. This provides strong support for the slow-moving-capital explanation of arbitrage persistence.

Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill

Abstract: We propose a new definition of skill as general cognitive ability to pick stocks or time the market. We find evidence for stock picking in booms and market timing in recessions. Moreover, the same fund managers that pick stocks well in expansions also time the market well in recessions. These fund managers significantly outperform other funds and passive benchmarks. Our results suggest a new measure of managerial ability that weighs a fund's market timing more in recessions and stock picking more in booms. The measure displays more persistence than either market timing or stock picking alone and predicts fund performance.

Agency Conflicts and Cash: Estimates from a Dynamic Model

Abstract: Which agency problems affect corporate cash policy? To answer this question, we estimate a dynamic model of finance and investment with three mechanisms that misalign managerial and shareholder incentives: limited managerial ownership of the firm, compensation based on firm size, and managerial perquisite consumption. We find that perquisite consumption critically impacts cash policy. Size-based compensation also matters, but less. Firms with lower blockholder and institutional ownership have higher managerial perquisite consumption, low managerial ownership is a key factor in the secular upward trend in cash holdings, and agency plays little role in small firms' substantial cash holdings.

Sizing Up Repo

Abstract: To understand which short-term debt markets experienced �runs� during the financial crisis, we analyze a novel data set of repurchase agreements (repo), that is, loans between nonbank cash lenders and dealer banks collateralized with securities. Consistent with a run, repo volume backed by private asset-backed securities falls to near zero in the crisis. However, the reduction is only $182 billion, which is small relative to the stock of private asset-backed securities as well as the contraction in asset-backed commercial paper. While the repo contraction is small in aggregate, it disproportionately affected a few dealer banks.

What's Not There: Odd Lots and Market Data

Abstract: We investigate odd-lot trades in equity markets. Odd lots are increasingly used in algorithmic and high-frequency trading, but are not reported to the consolidated tape or in databases such as TAQ. In our sample, the median number of odd-lot trades is 24% but in some stocks odd lots are 60% or more of trading. Odd-lot trades contribute 35% of price discovery, consistent with informed traders using odd lots to avoid detection. Omitting odd-lot trades leads to inaccuracies in order imbalance measures and makes sentiment measures unreliable. Excluding odd lots from the consolidated tape raises important regulatory issues.

Volatility, the Macroeconomy, and Asset Prices

Abstract: We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are persistent and are strongly correlated with discount-rate news. This evidence has important implications for the return on aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an economically plausible positive correlation between the return to human capital and equity, while this correlation is implausibly negative when volatility risk is ignored. Our model setup implies a dynamics capital asset pricing model (DCAPM) which underscores the importance of volatility risk in addition to cash-flow and discount-rate risks. We show that our DCAPM accounts for the level and dispersion of risk premia across book-to-market and size sorted portfolios, and that equity portfolios carry positive volatility-risk premia.

An Anatomy of Commodity Futures Risk Premia

Abstract: We identify two types of risk premia in commodity futures returns: spot premia related to the risk in the underlying commodity, and term premia related to changes in the basis. Sorting on forecasting variables such as the futures basis, return momentum, volatility, inflation, hedging pressure, and liquidity results in sizable spot premia between 5% and 14% per annum and term premia between 1% and 3% per annum. We show that a single factor, the high-minus-low portfolio from basis sorts, explains the cross-section of spot premia. Two additional basis factors are needed to explain the term premia.

Have Rating Agencies Become More Conservative? Implications for Capital Structure and Debt Pricing

Abstract: Rating agencies have become more conservative in assigning corporate credit ratings over the period 1985 to 2009; holding firm characteristics constant, average ratings have dropped by three notches. This change does not appear to be fully warranted because defaults have declined over this period. Firms affected more by conservatism issue less debt, have lower leverage, hold more cash, are less likely to obtain a debt rating, and experience lower growth. Their debt spreads are lower than those of unaffected firms with the same rating, which implies that the market partly undoes the impact of conservatism on debt prices. This evidence suggests that firms and capital markets do not perceive the increase in conservatism to be fully warranted.

Shaping Liquidity: On the Causal Effects of Voluntary Disclosure

Abstract: Can managers influence the liquidity of their firms� shares? We use plausibly exogenous variation in the supply of public information to show that firms actively shape their information environments by voluntarily disclosing more information than regulations mandate and that such efforts improve liquidity. Firms respond to an exogenous loss of public information by providing more timely and informative earnings guidance. Responses appear motivated by a desire to reduce information asymmetries between retail and institutional investors. Liquidity improves as a result and in turn increases firm value. This suggests that managers can causally influence their cost of capital via voluntary disclosure.