Showing papers in "Journal of Financial Services Research in 2013"

Bank Competition and Collateral: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: We investigate the impact of bank competition on the use of collateral in loan contracts. We analyze asymmetric information about the borrowers’ type in a Salop model in which banks choose between screening the borrower and asking for collateral. We show that the presence of collateral is more likely when bank competition is low. We then test this prediction empirically on a sample of bank loans from 70 countries. We perform logit regressions of the presence of collateral on bank competition, measured by the Lerner index. Our empirical tests corroborate the theoretical predictions that bank competition reduces the presence of collateral. These findings survive several robustness checks.

The Determinants of Venture Capital in Europe — Evidence Across Countries

Abstract: This article analyses the determinants of European venture capital activity. The main novelty of our work is in accounting for the idiosyncrasies of the European venture capital market. In particular, we investigate whether the size of the merger and acquisition market (M&A) is important in explaining venture capital. Moreover, our work is the first that analyses the impact of the degree of information asymmetry at the macro level, the direct impact of the level of entrepreneurial activity and the impact of the unemployment rate on venture capital activity. We use aggregate data from 23 European countries for the period 1998–2003 to estimate panel data models with fixed and random effects. Our results reveal that the size of the M&A market and the market-to-book ratio have a positive impact on venture capital activity whereas the unemployment rate influences the venture capital market negatively. These results highlight the importance of the exit environment and of the degree of asymmetric information for the venture capital market.

The Impact of Internet-Banking on Brick and Mortar Branches: The Case of Turkey

Abstract: The increased adoption and infiltration of the Internet has recently redefined the playground for retail banks. Retail banks are now offering their services primarily through their Internet banking branches. The repercussions of this change to “brick and mortar” banks have been studied in the context of developed market economies. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by studying the impact of Internet banking adoption on banks’ deposit collection, lending activities, and performance in an emerging market setting. By using a panel of 18 retail banks that operate in Turkey from 1990–2008, we demonstrate that Internet banking adoption has a positive impact on the level of profits, deposits and loans per branch. As operational activities are now provided via Internet branches, Internet banking facilitates banking activities in branches that require more human input. We also find that Internet banking adoption has a negative impact on bank profitability after 2 years of adoption as Internet banking increases competition and results in lower interest income. Accordingly, Internet banking complements brick and mortar branches.

Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures

Abstract: Small-medium enterprises (SMEs) encounter financial constraints when they try to obtain credit from banks. These constraints are particularly severe for innovative SMEs. Thus, developing models for innovative SMEs that provide reliable estimates of their probabilities of default (PD) is important because the PDs can also serve as ratings. We examine the role of innovative assets such as patents in credit risk modelling due to their signaling value. Specifically, we add to a logit model two innovation-related variables in order to account for both the dimension and the value of the patent portfolio. Based on a unique data set of innovative SMEs with default years of 2005–2008, we show that, although the value of the patent portfolio always reduces the PD, its dimension reduces the firm’s riskiness only if coupled with an appropriate equity level.

The Determinants of Mergers and Acquisitions in Banking

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants associated with the likelihood of a bank becoming involved in a merger or an acquisition. Using a multinomial logistic regression and a Cox regression with time-dependent covariates, we investigate the determinants of being a target or an acquirer from a sample of 777 deals involving EU acquirers and 312 global targets over the period of 1991 to 2006. Both the multinomial logistic and Cox regressions identify the same determinants associated with becoming acquirers or targets. A higher likelihood of becoming an acquirer exists for larger banks with a history of high growth, greater cost X-efficiency, and lower capitalization. In contrast, banks are more likely to be targets if they have lower free cash flows, are less efficient, are relatively illiquid, and are under-capitalized. But, the predictive power of the two regressions is different as the multinomial logistic regression outperforms the Cox regression when predicting the likelihood of becoming an acquirer.

Collateral registries for movable assets : does their introduction spur firms' access to bank finance ?

Abstract: Using firm-level surveys for up to 73 countries, this paper explores the impact of introducing collateral registries for movable assets on firms' access to bank finance. It compares firms' access to bank finance in seven countries that introduced collateral registries for movable assets against three control groups: firms in all countries that did not introduce a registry, firms in a sample of countries matched by location and income per capita to the countries that introduced registries for movable assets, and firms in countries that undertook other types of collateral reforms but did not set up registries for movable assets. Overall, the analysis finds that introducing collateral registries for movable assets increases firms' access to bank finance. There is also some evidence that this effect is larger among smaller firms.

Monitoring Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

Abstract: The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank’s exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of option contracts on financial firms’ equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, their combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world.

Beyond Bank Competition and Profitability: Can Moral Hazard Tell Us More?

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relation between competition, profitability, and risk. The investigation uses bank-level panel data from 171 Chinese banks during 1993 to 2007. Throughout the whole sample, the empirical results divulge that increased bank concentration in China improves the profitability and the risk of its banks. These results support the structure-conduct-performance and the moral hazard hypotheses. In terms of persistence, both the profit and the risk of the banks rise significantly by showing the enhancement of profit and risk from one period to the next. When different types of banks are considered, joint-stock banks have the highest persistence in profit and risk, and therefore more stable profits. City banks support the moral hazard hypothesis. They have entrenched managers that tend to take on more risk when the bank’s charter value falls in a very competitive (less concentrated) environment. Further, deregulation which in 2003 China allowed foreign banks to formally enter China has a negative impact on the structure of China’s banking sector.

Bank Structure, Relationship Lending and Small Firm Access to Finance: A Cross-Country Investigation

Abstract: Loans to small firms are associated with relationship lending technologies that may be better supported by smaller banks. Whether competition helps or hinders small firm access to finance may depend on the size distribution of banks and the ways in which banks compete. Using cross-country data from surveys of firms and banks and a measure of contestability evidence is produced for a non-linear relationship between competition and the use of bank financing by small firms. While at very low levels of contestability an increase in contestability increases small firm use of bank finance, for most observations of contestability in the sample, an increase in contestability produces the opposite result. This also holds for medium size firms outside of manufacturing. Medium size firms in manufacturing exhibit a non-linear relationship between competition and use of bank credit, but in an opposing direction. Small firms are also more likely to use bank financing the higher is the small bank market share. However, neither the size distribution of banks nor the level of profitability of lending is shown to further influence the effect of contestability on small firm use of bank lending.

Bank Capital Requirements, Capital Structure and Regulation

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of capital requirements, deposit insurance and franchise value on a bank’s capital structure. We find that properly regulated banks voluntarily choose to maintain capital in excess of the minimum required. Central to this decision is both firm franchise value and the ability of regulators to place banks in receivership stripping equity holders of firm value. These features of our model help explain both the capital structure of the large mortgage Government Sponsored Enterprises and the recent increase in risk taking through leverage by financial institutions. The insights gained from the model are useful in guiding the discussion of financial regulatory reforms.

Are Banks’ Internal Risk Parameters Consistent? Evidence from Syndicated Loans

Abstract: Syndicated loans provide an exceptional opportunity to study differences in banks’ approaches to measuring risk because many of these loans are held by more than one bank. We study differences in banks’ estimates of risk parameters used to calculate regulatory capital requirements for syndicated loans. Using internal data from nine large U.S. banks, we find significant dispersion in the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) assigned by different banks to the same loans. Banks’ PDs differ substantially, but only a few systematically set PDs higher or lower than others in a statistically significant manner. However, many banks’ estimates of LGD differ from others in a systemic manner that is statistically and economically significant, causing large differences in minimum regulatory capital. In addition, we find that banks assign lower PDs to loans of which they hold larger shares, suggesting that incentives affect risk parameters.

Is There a Difference Between Solicited and Unsolicited Bank Ratings and, If So, Why?

Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of soliciting a rating on the actual outcome of bank ratings. Using two sample banks (one rated by Fitch and one rated by S&P), I find evidence that unsolicited ratings tend to be lower than solicited ones, after accounting for differences in observable bank characteristics. This downward bias does not seem to be explained by the fact that better-quality banks self-select into the solicited group. Rather, unsolicited ratings appear to be lower because they are based on public information and are therefore dependent on the quantity of public information disclosed by the banks. As a result, unsolicited ratings tend to be more conservative than solicited ratings, which incorporate both public and non-public information. While the latter result is also consistent with the fact that credit rating agencies may blackmail low-disclosure firms, the findings suggest that blackmailing—if it is actually used—is ineffective in making these firms start to pay for a rating.

Why Does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis

Abstract: We provide a simple model, able to explain why the overnight (ON) rate follows a downward intraday pattern, implicitly creating a positive intraday interest rate. While this normally reflects only some frictions, a liquidity crisis introduces a new component: the chance of an upward jump of the ON rate, which must be compensated by an intraday decline of the ON rate. By analyzing real time data for the e-MID interbank market, we show that the intraday rate has increased from a negligible level to a significant one after the start of the liquidity crisis in August 2007, and even more so since September 2008. The intraday rate is affected by the likelihood of a dry-up of the ON market, proxied by the 3M Euribor—Eonia swap spread. This evidence supports our model and it shows that a liquidity crisis impairs the ability of central banks to curb the market price of intraday liquidity, even by providing free daylight overdrafts. Such results have implications for the efficiency of the money market and of payment systems, as well as for the operational framework of central banks.

Unsolicited Versus Solicited: Credit Ratings and Bond Yields

Abstract: This paper is the first attempt to analyze Standard & Poor’s unsolicited and solicited ratings by using bond-yield data in Japan. Our findings show that there are differences in firm characteristics between firms seeking solicited ratings and those that receive unsolicited ratings. Firms with solicited ratings have less information asymmetry and are more likely to be owned by foreign investors, generate more revenue from exports, be cross-listed in the US, and have higher firm quality. But, firms with unsolicited ratings pay higher costs for debt, and their bond prices react more strongly to credit-rating changes. Yield spreads for new bonds with unsolicited ratings are higher than those with solicited ratings, because unsolicited ratings have higher information asymmetry, and investors therefore demand higher yields. We find that bond-price reactions to the announcements of unsolicited rating downgrades (upgrades) are negative (positive) and significant, while bond prices do not react significantly to solicited rating downgrades or upgrades.

Motivation for Repurchases: A Life Cycle Explanation

Abstract: This study examines the motives for share repurchases. Whereas most prior research points to either the signaling or free cash flow hypothesis, we find that the motives for repurchases differ depending on the firm’s life cycle stage. Specifically, we find that a firm in the growth stage tends to announce a repurchase program to signal its undervalued stock whereas a firm in the mature stage is prone to buy back shares to dispense excess free cash flow. We also find that the market reaction to repurchase announcements corroborates this life-cycle argument.

How Do Stock Markets in the US and Europe Price Efficiency Gains from Bank M&As?

Abstract: This paper examines whether the stock markets price changes in operating efficiency as a result of bank mergers and if the premiums paid by the acquiring banks also reflect these changes. The sample covers mergers and acquisitions consummated in the US and Europe during the period of 1997 to 2003. Changes in cost and profit efficiency are calculated using the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method 1 year prior and 3 years following the merger announcement. Evidence suggests a significant relation between the announcement-period abnormal returns and the post-merger profit efficiency changes. Results also indicate that bank managers are likely to pay a higher premium for those M&A transactions that can bring about greater efficiency gains, particularly on the profit side. Further, although acquirer shareholders in the US and Europe appear to react differently to the announcement of a bank merger, our results for target shareholders suggest that regional differences might be less important than the degree of capital market development in explaining wealth effects.

Valuing Core Deposits

Abstract: While the financial crisis has brought to the fore valuation of bank assets, equally important to a bank’s long-term health is the quality of its deposits. This paper employs bank-specific data on total and retained balances to value so-called core deposits: checking and savings and money market accounts. The empirical results indicate that core deposits have considerable value to financial institutions, often dramatically more than regulators have allowed. The empirical results also indicate that the value of core deposits varies substantially by institution. For some institutions the value of core deposits approaches the total value of the institution. I am grateful to Rob Battalio, Tom Cosimano, Dave Hutchison, Bill McGuire and seminar participants at the University of Notre Dame for their comments on earlier drafts. I am particularly grateful to an anonymous referee whose suggestions substantially improved the paper. Any remaining limitations are entirely my responsibility.

Do Information Rents in Loan Spreads Persist over the Business Cycles

Abstract: In this paper, we seek empirical evidence for information rents in loan spreads by analyzing a sample of UK syndicated loan contracts for the period from 1996 to 2005. We use various measures for borrower opaqueness and control for bank, borrower and loan characteristics and we find that undercapitalized banks charge approximately 34 bps higher loan spreads for loans to opaque borrowers. We further analyze whether this effect persists throughout the business cycle and find that this effect prevails only during recessions. However, we do not find evidence that banks exploit their information monopolies during expansion phases.

Exploring the Agency Cost of Debt: Evidence from the ISS Governance Standards

Abstract: Corporate governance is usually viewed in the context of strengthening shareholder rights and enhancing shareholders’ welfare. However, the impact of corporate governance on bondholders is much less understood. We explore how corporate governance influences the cost of debt financing. Using broad governance metrics encompassing fifty governance attributes reported by The Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), we document that stronger corporate governance is associated with a higher cost of debt. As governance strengthens by one standard deviation, the cost of debt rises by as much as 11 %. The results are robust even after controlling for both firm-specific and issue-specific characteristics. Our results are important because they suggest that corporate governance has a palpable effect on critical corporate outcomes such as credit ratings and bond yields. More importantly, we show that, while corporate governance may mitigate the agency conflict between managers and shareholders, it appears to exacerbate the agency conflict between shareholders and bondholders (the agency cost of debt).

Banks, Bears, and the Financial Crisis

Abstract: We test whether short selling is destabilizing comparing distressed financial firms to other firms using NYSE transactions records covering 4 years including the recent financial crisis. Aggressive short-selling is sometimes destabilizing by some measures, but its impact is small, vanishes quickly, is not necessarily larger for distressed firms or during the crisis, and is accompanied by other stabilizing effects. The evidence does not validate theoretical predictions from models of destabilizing speculative or predatory trading. Aggregate short-selling is largely unrelated to market-wide investor sentiment, credit risk, and ex ante volatility. Aggressive liquidation of long positions typically has more impact than short selling. Thus, the data cannot justify the restrictions on short sales of financial stocks imposed in September 2008.

Predicting Recurrent Financial Distresses with Autocorrelation Structure: An Empirical Analysis from an Emerging Market

Abstract: The dynamic logit model (DLM) with autocorrelation structure (Liang and Zeger Biometrika 73:13–22, 1986) is proposed as a model for predicting recurrent financial distresses. This model has been applied in many examples to analyze repeated binary data due to its simplicity in computation and formulation. We illustrate the proposed model using three different panel datasets of Taiwan industrial firms. These datasets are based on the well-known predictors in Altman (J Financ 23:589–609, 1968), Campbell et al. (J Financ 62:2899–2939, 2008), and Shumway (J Bus 74:101–124, 2001). To account for the correlations among the observations from the same firm, we consider two different autocorrelation structures: exchangeable and first-order autoregressive (AR1). The prediction models including the DLM with independent structure, the DLM with exchangeable structure, and the DLM with AR1 structure are separately applied to each of these datasets. Using an expanding rolling window approach, the empirical results show that for each of the three datasets, the DLM with AR1 structure yields the most accurate firm-by-firm financial-distress probabilities in out-of-sample analysis among the three models. Thus, it is a useful alternative for studying credit losses in portfolios.

The Shareholder Wealth Effects of Insurance Securitization: Preliminary Evidence from the Catastrophe Bond Market

Abstract: Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase the underwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, global volumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raises questions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value of insurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitization by issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hitherto underwhelming contribution of Cat bonds to global catastrophe coverage, we do not find evidence that Cat bonds lead to strong wealth gains for shareholders in the issuing firm. More importantly, we report large variations in the distribution of wealth effects in response to the issue announcement. We show that the wealth effects for shareholders in firms which issue Cat bonds appear to be driven by explanations according to which Cat bonds offer cost savings relative to other forms of catastrophe risk management (and less by the potential of Cat bonds to hedge catastrophe risk). Thus, abnormal returns are particularly large for issues by firms which face low levels of loss uncertainty (which reduces the information acquisition costs in financial markets) as well as for issues during periods when prices for catastrophe coverage (including Cat bonds) are low.

Decision Making for Individual Investors: A Measurement of Latent Difficulties

Abstract: This study identifies how investors’ confidence and information gathering ability affect their decision making by using the investment theory on crystallized and fluid intelligences. We adopt the Rasch model to analyze latent and unobservable factors that cause difficulties in investment participation for investors in Taiwan. These investors are more confident in technical analysis but less confident in trading regulations. Further, they find media and professional sources difficult to trust, but professional advice is very accessible. Lower income significantly influences investors’ confidence and their information-gathering ability just as youth significantly contributes to more confidence. But gender and maturity significantly contribute to factors that concern their information gathering ability. Regional demographic differences show variations in decision making regarding investment preferences, while increasing income encourages investment diversification through multiple decisions. This study identifies a strong correlation between investors’ confidence and their information gathering ability, thus indicating that investors’ confidence enhances the development of the ability to gather investment information.

The Volatility of European Banking Systems: A Two-Decade Study

Abstract: This paper examines the trends and composition of volatility across European banking systems from January 1988 to December 2010. While there is no evidence of a long-term trend in the average level of banking system volatility, there is a change in its composition resulting from the growing importance of International and European nonfinancial components, especially in the largest banking systems. We argue that the changing composition of banking system volatility is the effect of a long-term integration process (with a growing importance of cross-border activities) that has not been influenced by the introduction of the Euro. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of the European banking systems to International and European shocks and an increasing likelihood of cross-border banking crises, and the need for regulatory reforms that focus on effective cross-border crisis management and resolution so as to safeguard the systemic stability of European banking in the near future.

Canadian Investors and the Discount on Closed-End Funds

Abstract: We explore the role of the discount on closed-end funds (CEFD) in asset pricing and test its validity as a proxy for investor sentiment in the Canadian stock market. Results show that CEFD is not a priced factor. Both cross-sectional and time-series tests confirm that stocks with different exposures to CEFD do not have significantly different average returns. CEFD does not even provide incremental explanatory power after controlling for firm characteristics and risk factors. Furthermore, CEFD fails to be a proxy for investor sentiment with no correlation to either the consumer confidence index or flows to open-ended funds.

Can Market Discipline Work in the Case of Rating Agencies? Some Lessons from Moody’s Stock Price

Abstract: This paper examines whether the stock price of the rating agency Moody’s reacts negatively to rating actions that could indicate low rating quality. The reaction to rating reversals, which Moody’s describes as particularly damaging to investors, is economically significant. It suggests that market discipline has the potential to influence agency behavior. On the other hand, defaults of highly rated issuers do not consistently impact Moody’s stock price. The focus on reversals and the neglect of default events are consistent with either collusion or with misconceptions of how rating quality should be evaluated. Both interpretations question whether market discipline can be sufficient to ensure a socially optimal rating policy within the current environment.