Journal of Futures Markets 

About: Journal of Futures Markets is an academic journal published by Wiley-Blackwell. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Futures contract & Volatility (finance). It has an ISSN identifier of 0270-7314. Over the lifetime, 2236 publications have been published receiving 62265 citations. The journal is also known as: The Journal of futures markets.

Energy shocks and financial markets

Abstract: This study analyzes the information transmission mechanism linking oil futures with stock prices, where we examine the lead and lag cross-correlations of returns in one market with the others. We investigate the dynamic interactions between oil futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and U.S. stock prices, which allows us to examine the effects of energy shocks on financial markets. In particular, we examine the extent to which these markets are contemporaneously correlated, with particular attention paid to the association of oil price indexes with the SP 12 major industry stock price indices and 3 individual oil company stock price series. We also examine the extent to which price changes or returns in one market dynamically lead returns in the others and whether volatility spillover effects exist across these markets. Using VAR model estimates for various time series of returns we find that petroleum industry stock index and our three oil company stocks are the only series where we can reject the null hypothesis that oil futures do not lead Treasury Bill rates and stock returns, while we can reject the hypothesis that oil futures lag these other two series. Finally, the return volatility evidence for oil futures leading individual oil company stocks is much weaker than is the evidence for returns themselves.

Trading costs and the relative rates of price discovery in stock, futures, and option markets

Abstract: In frictionless and rational markets, perfect substitutes must have the same price. In markets with trading costs, however, price differences may be as large as the costs of executing the arbitrage between markets. Moreover, if trading costs differ, trading activity will tend to be concentrated in the lowest-cost market. This study tests the differential trading cost hypothesis by examining the rate at which new information is incorporated in stock, index futures, and index option prices. The lead/lag return relations among markets are consistent with their relative trading costs. Prices in the index derivative markets appear to lead prices in the stock market. At the same time, index futures prices tend to lead index option prices, and the prices of index calls and index puts move together. The trading cost hypothesis reconciles the disparity found between the temporal relation in the stock index/index derivative markets versus the stock/stock option markets.

Volatility and commodity price dynamics

Abstract: Commodity prices are volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production, the opportunity cost of producing the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of volatility in short-run commodity market dynamics and the determinants of volatility itself. I develop a structural model of inventories, spot, and futures prices that explicitly accounts for volatility, and estimate it using daily and weekly data for the petroleum complex: crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1029–1047, 2004