Showing papers in "Journal of Geophysical Research in 2002"

Theory and application of the Day plot (Mrs/Ms versus Hcr/Hc) 1. Theoretical curves and tests using titanomagnetite data

Abstract: [1] Although most paleomagnetic and environmental magnetic papers incorporate a Day plot of the hysteresis parameters Mrs/Ms versus Hcr/Hc, a comprehensive theory covering superparamagnetic (SP), single-domain (SD), pseudo-single-domain (PSD), and multidomain (MD) (titano)magnetites is lacking. There is no consensus on how to quantify grain-size trends within the Day plot, how to distinguish MD from SP trends/mixtures, or whether magnetite, titanomagnetites, and other minerals have distinctive trends by which they might be identified. This paper develops the theory of the Day plot parameters for MD, MD + SD, PSD, and SP + SD grains of titanomagnetite (Fe 3– xTixO4) with compositions x = 0 (TM0 or magnetite) and x = 0.6 (TM60). MD grains have a separate trend that intersects the curve for SD + MD mixtures. SP + SD mixtures generate a variety of trends, depending on the SP grain size. All SP + SD curves lie much above those for MD or SD + MD trends, as has been proposed, but not demonstrated, previously. Data for PSD-size magnetites of many different origins fall along a single trend, but different levels of internal stress shift points for similar grain sizes along the ‘‘master curve.’’ In order to use the Day plot to determine grain size, one must have independent information about the state of internal stress. Theoretical model curves for SD + MD mixtures match the PSD magnetite and TM60 data quite well, although the SD!MD transition region in grain size is much narrower for TM60 than for magnetite. The agreement between PSD data and SD + MD mixing curves implies that PSD behavior is due to superimposed independent SD and MD moments, either in individual or separate grains, and not to exotic micromagnetic structures such as vortices. The theory also matches Mrs and Hc values in mechanical mixtures of very fine and very coarse grains, although nonlinear mixing theory is required to explain some Hcr and Hcr/Hc data. INDEX TERMS: 1540 Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Rock and mineral magnetism; 1594 Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Instruments and techniques; 1533 Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Remagnetization; 1512 Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism: Environmental magnetism;

REVEL: A model for Recent plate velocities from space geodesy

Abstract: [1] We present a new global model for Recent plate velocities, REVEL, describing the relative velocities of 19 plates and continental blocks. The model is derived from publicly available space geodetic (primarily GPS) data for the period 1993–2000. We include an independent and rigorous estimate for GPS velocity uncertainties to assess plate rigidity and propagate these uncertainties to the velocity estimates. The velocity fields for North America, Eurasia, and Antarctica clearly show the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment, and Australia appears to depart from rigid plate behavior in a manner consistent with the mapped intraplate stress field. Two thirds of tested plate pairs agree with the NUVEL-1A geologic (3 Myr average) velocities within uncertainties. Three plate pairs (Caribbean–North America, Caribbean–South America, and North America–Pacific) exhibit significant differences between the geodetic and geologic model that may reflect systematic errors in NUVEL-1A due to the use of seafloor magnetic rate data that do not reflect the full plate rate because of tectonic complexities. Most other differences probably reflect real velocity changes over the last few million years. Several plate pairs (Arabia–Eurasia, Arabia–Nubia, Eurasia–India) move more slowly than the 3 Myr NUVEL-1A average, perhaps reflecting long-term deceleration associated with continental collision. Several other plate pairs, including Nazca–Pacific, Nazca–South America and Nubia–South America, are experiencing slowing that began ∼25 Ma, the beginning of the current phase of Andean crustal shortening.

Long‐range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States

Abstract: [1] We explore a strategy for long-range hydrologic forecasting that uses ensemble climate model forecasts as input to a macroscale hydrologic model to produce runoff and streamflow forecasts at spatial and temporal scales appropriate for water management. Monthly ensemble climate model forecasts produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center global spectral model (GSM) are bias corrected, downscaled to 1/8° horizontal resolution, and disaggregated to a daily time step for input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. Bias correction is effected by evaluating the GSM ensemble forecast variables as percentiles relative to the GSM model climatology and then extracting the percentiles' associated variable values instead from the observed climatology. The monthly meteorological forecasts are then interpolated to the finer hydrologic model scale, at which a daily signal that preserves the forecast anomaly is imposed through resampling of the historic record. With the resulting monthly runoff and streamflow forecasts for the East Coast and Ohio River basin, we evaluate the bias correction and resampling approaches during the southeastern United States drought from May to August 2000 and also for the El Nino conditions of December 1997 to February 1998. For the summer 2000 study period, persistence in anomalous initial hydrologic states predominates in determining the hydrologic forecasts. In contrast, the El Nino-condition hydrologic forecasts derive direction both from the climate model forecast signal and the antecedent land surface state. From a qualitative standpoint the hydrologic forecasting strategy appears successful in translating climate forecast signals to hydrologic variables of interest for water management.

Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997

Abstract: [1] A Large Fire Database (LFDB), which includes information on fire location, start date, final size, cause, and suppression action, has been developed for all fires larger than 200 ha in area for Canada for the 1959–1997 period. The LFDB represents only 3.1% of the total number of Canadian fires during this period, the remaining 96.9% of fires being suppressed while <200 ha in size, yet accounts for ∼97% of the total area burned, allowing a spatial and temporal analysis of recent Canadian landscape-scale fire impacts. On average ∼2 million ha burned annually in these large fires, although more than 7 million ha burned in some years. Ecozones in the boreal and taiga regions experienced the greatest areas burned, with an average of 0.7% of the forested land burning annually. Lightning fires predominate in northern Canada, accounting for 80% of the total LFDB area burned. Large fires, although small in number, contribute substantially to area burned, most particularly in the boreal and taiga regions. The Canadian fire season runs from late April through August, with most of the area burned occurring in June and July due primarily to lightning fire activity in northern Canada. Close to 50% of the area burned in Canada is the result of fires that are not actioned due to their remote location, low values-at-risk, and efforts to accommodate the natural role of fire in these ecosystems. The LFDB is updated annually and is being expanded back in time to permit a more thorough analysis of long-term trends in Canadian fire activity.

ITRF2000: A new release of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame for earth science applications

Abstract: [1] For the first time in the history of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame, the ITRF2000 combines unconstrained space geodesy solutions that are free from any tectonic plate motion model. Minimum constraints are applied to these solutions solely in order to define the underlying terrestrial reference frame (TRF). The ITRF2000 origin is defined by the Earth center of mass sensed by satellite laser ranging (SLR) and its scale by SLR and very long baseline interferometry. Its orientation is aligned to the ITRF97 at epoch 1997.0, and its orientation time evolution follows, conventionally, that of the no-net-rotation NNR-NUVEL-1A model. The ITRF2000 orientation and its rate are implemented using a consistent geodetic method, anchored over a selection of ITRF sites of high geodetic quality, ensuring a datum definition at the 1 mm level. This new frame is the most extensive and accurate one ever developed, containing about 800 stations located at about 500 sites, with better distribution over the globe compared to past ITRF versions but still with more site concentration in western Europe and North America. About 50% of station positions are determined to better than 1 cm, and about 100 sites have their velocity estimated to at (or better than) 1 mm/yr level. The ITRF2000 velocity field was used to estimate relative rotation poles for six major tectonic plates that are independent of the TRF orientation rate. A comparison to relative rotation poles of the NUVEL-1A plate motion model shows vector differences ranging between 0.03° and 0.08°/m.y. (equivalent to approximately 1–7 mm/yr over the Earth's surface). ITRF2000 angular velocities for four plates, relative to the Pacific plate, appear to be faster than those predicted by the NUVEL-1A model. The two most populated plates in terms of space geodetic sites, North America and Eurasia, exhibit a relative Euler rotation pole of about 0.056 (±0.005)°/m.y. faster than the pole predicted by NUVEL-1A and located about (10°N, 7°E) more to the northwest, compared to that model.

Apparent and true polar wander and the geometry of the geomagnetic field over the last 200 Myr

Abstract: [1] We have constructed new apparent polar wander paths (APWPs) for major plates over the last 200 Myr. Updated kinematic models and selected paleomagnetic data allowed us to construct a master APWP. A persistent quadrupole moment on the order of 3% of the dipole over the last 200 Myr is suggested. Paleomagnetic and hot spot APW are compared, and a new determination of “true polar wander” (TPW) is derived. Under the hypothesis of fixed Atlantic and Indian hot spots, we confirm that TPW is episodic, with periods of (quasi) standstill alternating with periods of faster TPW (in the Cretaceous). The typical duration of these periods is on the order of a few tens of millions of years with wander rates during fast tracks on the order of 30 to 50 km/Myr. A total TPW of some 30° is suggested for the last 200 Myr. We find no convincing evidence for episodes of superfast TPW such as proposed recently by a number of authors. Comparison over the last 130 Myr of TPW deduced from hot spot tracks and paleomagnetic data in the Indo-Atlantic hemisphere with an independent determination for the Pacific plate supports the idea that, to first order, TPW is a truly global feature of Earth dynamics. Comparison with numerical modeling estimates of TPW shows that all current models still fail to some extent to account for the observed values of TPW velocity and for the succession of standstills and tracks which is observed.

Migrating and nonmigrating diurnal tides in the middle and upper atmosphere excited by tropospheric latent heat release

Abstract: [1] The global-scale wave model (GSWM) is used to investigate mesospheric and lower thermospheric migrating and nonmigrating diurnal tidal components that propagate upward from the troposphere, where they are excited by latent heat release associated with deep tropical convection. Our diurnal tidal forcing parameterization is derived from a 7-year database of global cloud imagery. The GSWM migrating response is sufficiently large to modulate the dominant radiatively excited migrating diurnal tide in the middle and upper atmosphere during every month of the year. Five additional nonmigrating diurnal components, the eastward propagating zonal wave numbers 2 and 3, the westward propagating zonal wave number 2, and the standing oscillations, also introduce significant longitudinal variability of the diurnal tide in these regions. The comparative importance of the nonmigrating components evolves from month to month and varies with tidal field. Our GSWM investigation suggests that other dynamical models must account for the tropospheric latent heat source in order to make realistic predictions of the diurnal tide in the middle and upper atmosphere.

Control of fossil‐fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter, possibly the most effective method of slowing global warming

Abstract: Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, no control of black carbon (BC) was considered. Here, it is found, through simulations in which 12 identifiable effects of aerosol particles on climate are treated, that any emission reduction of fossil-fuel (f.f.) particulate BC plus associated organic matter (OM) may slow global warming more than may any emission reduction of CO 2 or CH 4 for a specific period. When all f.f. BC + OM and anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 emissions are eliminated together, the period is 25-100 years. It is also estimated that historical net global warming can be attributed roughly to greenhouse gas plus f.f. BC + OM warming minus substantial cooling by other particles. Eliminating all f.f. BC + OM could eliminate 20-45% of net warming (8-18% of total warming before cooling is subtracted out) within 3-5 years if no other change occurred. Reducing CO 2 emissions by a third would have the same effect, but after 50-200 years. Finally, diesel cars emitting continuously under the most recent U.S. and E.U. particulate standards (0.08 g/mi; 0.05 g/km) may warm climate per distance driven over the next 100+ years more than equivalent gasoline cars. Thus, fuel and carbon tax laws that favor diesel appear to promote global warming. Toughening vehicle particulate emission standards by a factor of 8 (0.01 g/ mi; 0.006 g/km) does not change this conclusion, although it shortens the period over which diesel cars warm to 13-54 years. Although control of BC + OM can slow warming, control of greenhouse gases is necessary to stop warming. Reducing BC + OM will not only slow global warming but also improve human health.

Global distribution and climate forcing of carbonaceous aerosols

Abstract: The global distribution of carbonaceous aerosols is simulated online in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime (GISS GCM II-prime). Prognostic tracers include black carbon (BC), primary organic aerosol (POA), five groups of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and 14 semivolatile products of BVOC oxidation by O_3, OH, and NO_3, which condense to form secondary organic aerosols (SOA) based on an equilibrium partitioning model and experimental observations. Estimated global burdens of BC, organic carbon (OC), and SOA are 0.22, 1.2, and 0.19 Tg with lifetimes of 6.4, 5.3, and 6.2 days, respectively. The predicted global production of SOA is 11.2 Tg yr^(−1), with 91% due to O_3 and OH oxidation. Globally averaged, top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing by anthropogenic BC is predicted as +0.51 to +0.8 W m^(−2), the former being for BC in an external mixture and the latter for BC in an internal mixture of sulfate, OC, and BC. Globally averaged, anthropogenic BC, OC, and sulfate are predicted to exert a TOA radiative forcing of −0.39 to −0.78 W m^(−2), depending on the exact assumptions of aerosol mixing and water uptake by OC. Forcing estimates are compared with those published previously.

Implications of sediment‐flux‐dependent river incision models for landscape evolution

Abstract: [1] Developing a quantitative understanding of the factors that control the rate of river incision into bedrock is critical to studies of landscape evolution and the linkages between climate, erosion, and tectonics Current models of long-term river network incision differ significantly in their treatment of the role of sediment flux We analyze the implications of various sediment-flux-dependent incision models for large-scale topography, in an attempt (1) to identify quantifiable and diagnostic differences between models that could be detected from topographic data or from the transient responses of perturbed systems and (2) to explain the apparent ubiquity of mixed bedrock-alluvial channels in active orogens Although certain forms of the various models can be discarded as inconsistent with morphological data, we find that the relative intrinsic concavity indices of detachment- and transport-limited systems (defined herein) largely dictate whether the various models can be tied to distinctive steady state morphologies Preliminary data suggest that no such diagnostic differences may exist, and other methods must be developed to test models Accordingly, we develop and explore differences in the scaling behavior of topographic relief and the extent of detachment- versus transport-limited channels as a function of rock uplift rate that may allow discrimination among various models Further, we explore potentially diagnostic differences in the rates and patterns of transient channel response to changes in rock uplift rate In addition to general differences between detachment- and transport-limited systems our analysis identifies an interesting hysteresis in landscape evolution: “hybrid” channels at the threshold between detachment- and transport-limited conditions are expected to act as detachment-limited systems in response to an increase in rock uplift rate (or base level fall) and as transport-limited systems in response to a decrease in rock uplift rate, especially during postorogenic topographic decline The analyses presented set the stage for field studies designed to test quantitatively the various river incision models that have been proposed

Mixing layers and coherent structures in vegetated aquatic flows

Abstract: [1] To date, flow through submerged aquatic vegetation has largely been viewed as perturbed boundary layer flow, with vegetative drag treated as an extension of bed drag. However, recent studies of terrestrial canopies demonstrate that the flow structure within and just above an unconfined canopy more strongly resembles a mixing layer than a boundary layer. This paper presents laboratory measurements, obtained from a scaled seagrass model, that demonstrate the applicability of the mixing layer analogy to aquatic systems. Specifically, all vertical profiles of mean velocity contained an inflection point, which makes the flow susceptible to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. This instability leads to the generation of large, coherent vortices within the mixing layer (observed in the model at frequencies between 0.01 and 0.11 Hz), which dominate the vertical transport of momentum through the layer. The downstream advection of these vortices is shown to cause the progressive, coherent waving of aquatic vegetation, known as the monami. When the monami is present, the turbulent vertical transport of momentum is enhanced, with turbulent stresses penetrating an additional 30% of the plant height into the canopy.

Advantages of diffuse radiation for terrestrial ecosystem productivity

Abstract: [1] Clouds and aerosols alter the proportion of diffuse radiation in global solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. It is known that diffuse and direct beam radiation differ in the way they transfer through plant canopies and affect the summation of nonlinear processes like photosynthesis differently than what would occur at the leaf scale. We compared the relative efficiencies of canopy photosynthesis to diffuse and direct photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) for a Scots pine forest, an aspen forest, a mixed deciduous forest, a tallgrass prairie and a winter wheat crop. The comparison was based on the seasonal patterns of the parameters that define the canopy photosynthetic responses to diffuse PAR and those that define the responses to direct PAR. These parameters were inferred from half-hourly tower CO2 flux measurements. We found that: (1) diffuse radiation results in higher light use efficiencies by plant canopies; (2) diffuse radiation has much less tendency to cause canopy photosynthetic saturation; (3) the advantages of diffuse radiation over direct radiation increase with radiation level; (4) temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit can cause different responses in diffuse and direct canopy photosynthesis, indicating that their impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon assimilation may depend on radiation regimes and thus sky conditions. These findings call for different treatments of diffuse and direct radiation in models of global primary production, and studies of the roles of clouds and aerosols in global carbon cycle.

Theory and application of the Day plot (Mrs/Ms versus Hcr/Hc) 2. Application to data for rocks, sediments, and soils

Abstract: [1] New theoretical curves relating the hysteresis parameters Mrs/Ms and Hcr/Hc for single-domain (SD), superparamagnetic (SP), pseudo-single-domain (PSD), and multidomain (MD) grains and their mixtures are applied to published data for natural materials. The Day plot of Mrs/Ms versus Hcr/Hc has been used to crudely classify samples into box-like SD, PSD, and MD (or sometimes incorrectly, MD + SP) regions with arbitrary boundaries. New type curves for MD, PSD/SD + MD, and SD + SP grains and mixtures permit more subtle and precise modeling. The predicted MD trend and its junction with the PSD trend are observed in two data sets: for magnetite spherules from carbonate rocks and for temperature-varying hysteresis results spanning the Verwey transition. The latter data are the basis of a suggested new method for pinpointing the PSD-MD threshold size. Selected data for pottery clays, soils, and paleosols generally follow SD + MD type curves and indicate intermediate-size PSD magnetite with narrow to broad size distributions. A lake sediment section with known grain-size progression tracks in the predicted sense along the SD + MD trend. Selected data for glaciomarine and pelagic sediments are also generally compatible with SD + MD trends. Examples of remagnetized carbonate rocks, submarine basaltic glasses, and glassy rims of pillow basalts all follow predicted SP + SD or SP + PSD mixing curves, with a large range in volume fraction of SP grains (0–75%) but a narrow range of SP particle sizes: 10 ± 2 nm. Larger SP grains spanning the range to SD size (25–30 nm) are absent for unknown reasons. Oceanic dolerites, gabbros, and serpentinized peridotites in some cases fall in a novel region of the Day plot, parallel to but below magnetite SD + MD mixing curves.

Impact of vegetation and preferential source areas on global dust aerosol: Results from a model study

Abstract: [1] We present a model of the dust cycle that successfully predicts dust emissions as determined by land surface properties, monthly vegetation and snow cover, and 6-hourly surface wind speeds for the years 1982–1993. The model takes account of the role of dry lake beds as preferential source areas for dust emission. The occurrence of these preferential sources is determined by a water routing and storage model. The dust source scheme also explicitly takes into account the role of vegetation type as well as monthly vegetation cover. Dust transport is computed using assimilated winds for the years 1987–1990. Deposition of dust occurs through dry and wet deposition, where subcloud scavenging is calculated using assimilated precipitation fields. Comparison of simulated patterns of atmospheric dust loading with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite absorbing aerosol index shows that the model produces realistic results from daily to interannual timescales. The magnitude of dust deposition agrees well with sediment flux data from marine sites. Emission of submicron dust from preferential source areas are required for the computation of a realistic dust optical thickness. Sensitivity studies show that Asian dust source strengths are particularly sensitive to the seasonality of vegetation cover.

Anatomy of apparent seasonal variations from GPS‐derived site position time series

Abstract: [1] Apparent seasonal site position variations are derived from 4.5 years of global continuous GPS time series and are explored through the ‘‘peering’’ approach. Peering is a way to depict the contributions of the comparatively well-known seasonal sources to garner insight into the relatively poorly known contributors. Contributions from pole tide effects, ocean tide loading, atmospheric loading, nontidal oceanic mass, and groundwater loading are evaluated. Our results show that � 40% of the power of the observed annual vertical variations in site positions can be explained by the joint contribution of these seasonal surface mass redistributions. After removing these seasonal effects from the observations the potential contributions from unmodeled wet troposphere effects, bedrock thermal expansion, errors in phase center variation models, and errors in orbital modeling are also investigated. A scaled sensitivity matrix analysis is proposed to assess the contributions from highly correlated parameters. The effects of employing different analysis strategies are investigated by comparing the solutions from different GPS data analysis centers. Comparison results indicate that current solutions of several analysis centers are able to detect the seasonal signals but that the differences among these solutions are the main cause for residual seasonal effects. Potential implications for modeling seasonal variations in global site positions are explored, in particular, as a way to improve the stability of the terrestrial reference frame on seasonal timescales. INDEX TERMS: 1223 Geodesy and Gravity: Ocean/Earth/atmosphere interactions (3339); 1247 Geodesy and Gravity: Terrestrial reference systems; KEYWORDS: seasonal variation, GPS, time series

Atmospheric aerosol models for systems including the ions H+, NH4+, Na+, SO42−, NO3−, Cl−, Br−, and H2O

Abstract: [1] Mole fraction based equations for aqueous phase activities, together with equilibrium constants for the formation of gases and solids, have been combined with a Gibbs free energy minimization algorithm to create equilibrium phase partitioning models of inorganic atmospheric aerosols. The water content, phase state (solid or liquid), and gas/aerosol partitioning are predicted for known ionic composition, relative humidity, and temperature. The models are valid from <200 to 328 K for the subsystems (H+-SO42−-NO3−-Cl−-Br−-H2O) and (H+-NH4+-SO42−-NO3−-H2O), and 298.15 K only for (H+-NH4+-Na+-SO42−-NO3−-Cl−-H2O). The models involve no simplifying assumptions and include all solid phases identified in bulk experiments, including hydrated and double salt forms not treated in most other studies. The Henry's law constant of H2SO4 is derived as a function of temperature, based upon available data, and the model treatment of the solubility of HBr in aqueous H2SO4 is revised. Phase diagrams are calculated for the (NH4)2SO4/H2SO4/H2O system to low temperature. The models are also used to explore the importance of the double salts in urban inorganic aerosols. These Aerosol Inorganics Model (AIM) models can be run on the Web for a variety of problem types at http://mae.ucdavis.edu/wexler/aim.html and http://www.uea.ac.uk/∼e770/aim.html, and their use is summarized here.

An improved parameterization for sulfuric acid-water nucleation rates for tropospheric and stratospheric conditions

Abstract: [1] In this paper we present parameterized equations for calculation of sulfuric acid–water critical nucleus compositions, critical cluster radii and homogeneous nucleation rates for tropospheric and stratospheric conditions. The parameterizations are based on a classical nucleation model. We used an improved model for the hydrate formation relying on ab initio calculations of small sulfuric acid clusters and on experimental data for vapor pressures and equilibrium constants for hydrate formation. The most rigorous nucleation kinetics and the thermodynamically consistent version of the classical binary homogeneous nucleation theory were used. The parameterized nucleation rates are compared with experimental ones, and at room temperature and relative humidities above 30% they are within experimental error. At lower temperatures and lower humidities the agreement is somewhat poorer. Overall, the values of nucleation rates are increased compared to a previous parameterization and are within an order of magnitude compared with theoretical values for all conditions studied. The parameterized equations will reduce the computing time by a factor 1/500 compared to nonparameterized nucleation rate calculations and therefore are in particular useful for large-scale models. The parameterized formulas are valid at temperatures between 230.15 K and 305.15 K, relative humidities between 0.01% and 100%, and sulfuric acid concentrations from 104 to 1011 cm−3. They can be used to extrapolate the classical results down to 190 K. The parametrization is limited to cases where nucleation rates are between 10−7 and 1010 cm−3s−1, and the critical cluster contains at least four molecules.

A spatial random field model to characterize complexity in earthquake slip

Abstract: [1] Finite-fault source inversions reveal the spatial complexity of earthquake slip over the fault plane. We develop a stochastic characterization of earthquake slip complexity, based on published finite-source rupture models, in which we model the distribution of slip as a spatial random field. The model most consistent with the data follows a von Karman autocorrelation function (ACF) for which the correlation lengths a increase with source dimension. For earthquakes with large fault aspect ratios, we observe substantial differences of the correlation length in the along-strike (a x ) and downdip (a z ) directions. Increasing correlation length with increasing magnitude can be understood using concepts of dynamic rupture propagation. The power spectrum of the slip distribution can also be well described with a power law decay (i.e., a fractal distribution) in which the fractal dimension D remains scale invariant, with a median value D = 2.29 ±0.23, while the comer wave number k c , which is inversely proportional to source size, decreases with earthquake magnitude, accounting for larger slip patches for large-magnitude events. Our stochastic slip model can be used to generate realizations of scenario earthquakes for near-source ground motion simulations.

Effect of pore geometry on VP/VS: From equilibrium geometry to crack

Abstract: Seismic wave velocities of melt or aqueous fluid containing systems are studied over a wide range of pore shapes, including oblate spheroids, tubes, cracks, and an equilibrium geometry controlled by a dihedral angle. The relative role of liquid compressibility and pore geometry on the V P /V S velocity ratio is clarified. The result clearly indicates that P and S velocity structures determined by seismic tomography can be used to verify whether interfacial energy-controlled melt or fluid geometry (equilibrium geometry) is achieved. Relationships between the diverse models are clearly established by relating each model to the oblate spheroid model in terms of the equivalent aspect ratio. As a function of the aspect ratio, a significant effect of pore geometry on d In V S /d In V P , the ratio of the fractional changes in V S and V P , is shown. Equilibrium geometry of the partially molten rocks, characterized by a dihedral angle of 20°-40°, corresponds to an aspect ratio of 0.1-0.15. The value of d In V S /d In V P expected for the texturally equilibrated partially molten rocks is shown to be 1-1.5, which is much smaller than that expected for cracks and dikes with an aspect ratio of <10 -2 -10 -3 . In the upper mantle low-velocity regions the seismologically obtained value of d In V S /d In V P is within this range beneath the Bolivian Andes (1.1-1.4) but is as high as 2 beneath Iceland (1.7-2.3) and beneath northeastern Japan (2.0). The former region can be regarded as a region where equilibrium geometry is achieved, and the latter regions can be regarded as regions where dikes and veins typical of a system far from the textural equilibrium dominate.

A model of the near magnetosphere with a dawn-dusk asymmetry 1. Mathematical structure

Abstract: [1] A new empirical magnetic field model has been developed, representing the variable configuration of the inner and near magnetosphere for different interplanetary conditions and the ground disturbance levels. This paper describes the mathematical structure of the model, while the results of fitting it to a new set of spacecraft data are presented in a companion paper. The general approach remains the same as in the earlier T96 model, but the mathematical description of all major sources of the magnetospheric field now applies recently developed new methods. In particular, the field deformation technique is extensively used, making it possible to realistically and flexibly represent the fields of the cross-tail current, the ring current, and the Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents. The new model ring current includes not only the axisymmetric component but also a partial ring current with field-aligned closure currents, a feature absent in earlier data-based models. The field of the cross-tail current includes two modules whose current densities vary along the Sun-Earth line with different rates. The cross-tail current sheet warps in two dimensions in response to the geodipole tilt, its inner edge shifts along the Sun-Earth line with growing disturbance, and its thickness varies along and across the tail. Birkeland currents of Regions 1 and 2 vary in response to interplanetary conditions, so that at ionospheric altitudes they shift in latitude and change their distribution in local time. The magnetospheric boundary is specified using a most recent empirical model [Shue et al., 1998]; its size is controlled by the solar wind ram pressure, and its shape also varies in response to changes of the Earth's dipole tilt angle. The model magnetopause ensures a full confinement of the fields of all sources inside the magnetopause, regardless of its shape and size. The model also includes an interplanetary magnetic field–controlled interconnection field, allowing a finite normal Bn at the magnetopause and hence open magnetospheric configurations.

The case for rainfall on a warm, wet early Mars

Abstract: [1] Valley networks provide compelling evidence that past geologic processes on Mars were different than those seen today. The generally accepted paradigm is that these features formed from groundwater circulation, which may have been driven by differential heating induced by magmatic intrusions, impact melt, or a higher primordial heat flux. Although such mechanisms may not require climatic conditions any different than today's, they fail to explain the large amount of recharge necessary for maintaining valley network systems, the spatial patterns of erosion, or how water became initially situated in the Martian regolith. In addition, there are no clear surface manifestations of any geothermal systems (e.g., mineral deposits or phreatic explosion craters). Finally, these models do not explain the style and amount of crater degradation. To the contrary, analyses of degraded crater morphometry indicate modification occurred from creep induced by rain splash combined with surface runoff and erosion; the former process appears to have continued late into Martian history. A critical analysis of the morphology and drainage density of valley networks based on Mars Global Surveyor data shows that these features are, in fact, entirely consistent with rainfall and surface runoff. The necessity for a cold, dry early Mars has been predicated on debatable astronomical and climatic arguments. A warm, wet early climate capable of supporting rainfall and surface runoff is the most plausible scenario for explaining the entire suite of geologic features in the Martian cratered highlands.

Modeling of nutation and precession: New nutation series for nonrigid Earth and insights into the Earth's interior

Abstract: [1] The analytical formulation of the theories of nutation and wobble reveals the combinations of basic Earth parameters that govern the nutation-wobble response of the Earth to gravitational (tidal) forcing by heavenly bodies and makes it possible to estimate several of them through a least squares fit of the theoretical expressions to the high-precision data now available. This paper presents the essentials of the theoretical framework, the procedure that we used for least squares estimation of basic Earth parameters through a fit of theory to nutation-precession data derived from an up-to-date very long baseline interferometry data set, the results of the estimation and their geophysical interpretation, and the nutation series constructed using the estimated values of the parameters. The theoretical formulation used here differs from earlier ones in the incorporation of anelasticity and ocean tide effects into the basic structure of the dynamical equations of the theory and in the inclusion of electromagnetic couplings of the mantle and the solid inner core to the fluid outer core, though this generalization comes at the cost of making some of the system parameters complex and frequency dependent; it is also more complete, as it takes account of nonlinear terms in these equations, including effects of the time-dependent deformations produced by zonal and sectorial tides, which had been traditionally neglected in nonrigid Earth theories. Among the geophysical results obtained from our fit are estimates for the dynamic ellipticity e of the Earth (e = 0.0032845479 with an uncertainty of 12 in the last digit), for the dynamical ellipticity ef of the fluid core (3.8% higher than its hydrostatic equilibrium value, rather than ∼5% as hitherto), and for the two complex electromagnetic coupling constants. Our best estimates for the RMS radial magnetic fields at the core mantle boundary and at the inner core boundary, based on the estimates for these coupling constants, are ~6.9 and 72 gauss, respectively, when the magnetic field configurations are restricted to certain simple classes. The field strength needed at the inner core boundary could be lower if the density of the core fluid at this boundary or the ellipticity of the solid inner core were lower than that for the Preliminary Reference Earth Model. Our estimate for the resonance frequency of the prograde free core nutation mode, with an uncertainty of ∼10%, constitutes the first firm detection of the resonance associated with this mode; the period found is ∼1025 days, double that with electromagnetic couplings ignored. (Throughout this work, “days,” referring to periods, stands for “mean solar days.”) A new nutation series (MHB2000) is constructed by direct solution of the linearized dynamical equations (with our best fit values adopted for all the estimated Earth parameters) for each forcing frequency, and adding on the contributions from the nonlinear terms and other effects not included in the linearized equations. This series gives a considerably better fit to the nutation data than any of the earlier series based on geophysical theory. In particular, the residuals in the out of phase amplitudes of the retrograde 18.6 year and annual nutations, which had long remained at ∼0.5 milliseconds of arc (mas), are now reduced to the level of the uncertainties in the observational estimates, thanks mainly to the role played by the electromagnetic couplings. The largest remaining discrepancy is that in the out of phase prograde 18.6 year nutation, of ∼72 micorseconds of arc (μas). The frequency dependence of the nutation amplitudes cannot be exactly represented through a resonance formula, nor may the resonance frequencies themselves be interpreted as the eigenfrequencies of free modes because of the presence of complex and frequency-dependent system parameters. Nevertheless, we have constructed a new resonance formula which reproduces our nutation series accurately for almost all nutation frequencies; for the few remaining frequencies, a listing is given of the corrections to be applied in order to reproduce the exact results of the direct solution.

Effect of annual signals on geodetic velocity

Abstract: [1] Our analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) site coordinates in a global reference frame shows annual variation with typical amplitudes of 2 mm for horizontal and 4 mm for vertical, with some sites at twice these amplitudes. Power spectrum analysis confirms that GPS time series also contain significant power at annual harmonic frequencies (with spectral indices 1 < α < 2), which indicates the presence of repeating signals. Van Dam et al. [2001] showed that a major annual component is induced by hydrological and atmospheric loading. Unless accounted for, we show that annual signals can significantly bias estimation of site velocities intended for high accuracy purposes such as plate tectonics and reference frames. For such applications, annual and semiannual sinusoidal signals should be estimated simultaneously with site velocity and initial position. We have developed a model to calculate the level of bias in published velocities that do not account for annual signals. Simultaneous estimation might not be necessary beyond 4.5 years, as the velocity bias rapidly becomes negligible. Minimum velocity bias is theoretically predicted at integer-plus-half years, as confirmed by tests with real data. Below 2.5 years, the velocity bias can become unacceptably large, and simultaneous estimation does not necessarily improve velocity estimates, which rapidly become unstable due to correlated parameters. We recommend that 2.5 years be adopted as a standard minimum data span for velocity solutions intended for tectonic interpretation or reference frame production and that we be skeptical of geophysical interpretations of velocities derived using shorter data spans.

Theory of magnetic connectivity in the solar corona

Abstract: [1] Although the analysis of observational data indicates that quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) of magnetic configurations have to play an important role in solar flares, the corresponding theory is only at an initial stage so far. In particular, there is still a need of a proper definition of QSLs based on a comprehensive mathematical description of magnetic connectivity. Such a definition is given here by analyzing the mapping produced by the field lines which connect photospheric areas of positive and negative magnetic polarities. It is shown that magnetic configurations may have regions, where cross sections of magnetic flux tubes are strongly squashed by this mapping. These are the geometrical features that can be identified as the QSLs. The theory is applied to quadrupole configuration to demonstrate that it may contain two QSLs combined in a special structure called hyperbolic flux tube (HFT). Both theoretical and observational arguments indicate that the HFT is a preferred site for magnetic reconnection processes in solar flares.

Valley floor climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, Antarctica, 1986–2000

Abstract: [1] Climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, East Antarctica are presented from a network of seven valley floor automatic meteorological stations during the period 1986 to 2000. Mean annual temperatures ranged from −14.8°C to −30.0°C, depending on the site and period of measurement. Mean annual relative humidity is generally highest near the coast. Mean annual wind speed increases with proximity to the polar plateau. Site-to-site variation in mean annual solar flux and PAR is due to exposure of each station and changes over time are likely related to changes in cloudiness. During the nonsummer months, strong katabatic winds are frequent at some sites and infrequent at others, creating large variation in mean annual temperature owing to the warming effect of the winds. Katabatic wind exposure appears to be controlled to a large degree by the presence of colder air in the region that collects at low points and keeps the warm less dense katabatic flow from the ground. The strong influence of katabatic winds makes prediction of relative mean annual temperature based on geographical position (elevation and distance from the coast) alone, not possible. During the summer months, onshore winds dominate and warm as they progress through the valleys creating a strong linear relationship (r2 = 0.992) of increasing potential temperature with distance from the coast (0.09°C km−1). In contrast to mean annual temperature, summer temperature lends itself quite well to model predictions, and is used to construct a statistical model for predicting summer dry valley temperatures at unmonitored sites.

Dynamical response to the solar cycle

Abstract: [1] The dynamical impact of the 11-year solar cycle is investigated with the focus on the stratopause region where solar ultraviolet heating is greatest. The most important variation in solar forcing longer than the diurnal cycle is the annual cycle. Thus the climatological features of the zonal wind variation associated with the annual cycle were first studied to characterize the basic features of the atmosphere's dynamical response to changes in solar radiative forcing. The 11-year solar cycle effect was then investigated. The results of the analysis suggest that in a climatological mean state the stratopause circulation evolves from a radiatively controlled state to one dynamically controlled during winter in both hemispheres. The transition period is characterized by a poleward shift of the westerly jet. The solar cycle effect appears as a change in the balance between the radiatively and dynamically controlled states. The radiatively controlled state lasts longer during the solar maximum phase, and the stratopause subtropical jet reaches a higher speed. The large dynamical response to relatively weak radiative forcing may be understood by the bimodal nature of the winter atmosphere due to interaction with meridionaly propagating planetary waves and zonal mean zonal winds. It is suggested that the solar influence produced in the upper stratosphere and stratopause region is transmitted to the lower stratosphere through (1) modulation of the internal mode of variation in the polar night jet and (2) a change in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The first process is significant in the middle and high latitudes, whereas the latter is prominent in the equatorial region.

A model of the near magnetosphere with a dawn-dusk asymmetry 2. Parameterization and fitting to observations

Abstract: [1] First results are presented of an empirical modeling of the Earth's inner and near magnetosphere (X ≥ −15 RE), using a new set of data and new methods, described in a companion paper. The modeling database included 5-min average B field data, taken in a wide range of altitudes and latitudes by the International Solar Terrestrial Physics spacecraft Polar (1996–1999) and Geotail (1994–1999), as well as by earlier missions, ISEE 2 (1984–1987), Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers (AMPTE)/CCE (1984–1988), AMPTE/Ion Release Module (1984–1986), CRRES (1990–1991), and DE 1 (1984–1990). To take into account the delayed response of the magnetosphere to the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), each data record in the data set was tagged by a “trail” of 5-min averages of the IMF, solar wind, and Dst field data, covering the preceding 2-hour interval. The axisymmetric ring current (SRC) and the partial one (PRC), both parameterized by the corrected Dst* index and the solar wind pressure Pd, were found to vary in strikingly different ways. While under quiet conditions the PRC is much weaker than the SRC, it dramatically grows in magnitude and rotates to the dusk sector with rising |Dst*| and Pd, significantly exceeding the SRC even during moderate storms, in excellent agreement with recent particle simulations. The innermost part of the cross-tail current is quite sensitive to the southward IMF and yields ∼90% of the tail's contribution to the Dst index, in contrast with the more distant tail current, which responds mainly to the solar wind pressure and provides no appreciable contribution to Dst. In response to southward IMF conditions, Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents rapidly grow in magnitude and expand to lower latitudes, while their peaks shift slightly in local time toward noon. The coefficient of the IMF penetration inside the magnetosphere was found to dramatically increase with growing IMF clock angle: while quite small (∼0.1) for northward IMF, it rises to ∼0.6 as the IMF turns southward. Priorities and challenges for future data-based modeling studies are discussed.

Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change

Abstract: [1] Using a coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model, we have simulated the climatic response to natural and anthropogenic forcings from 1860 to 1997. The model, HadCM3, requires no flux adjustment and has an interactive sulphur cycle, a simple parameterization of the effect of aerosols on cloud albedo (first indirect effect), and a radiation scheme that allows explicit representation of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Simulations were carried out in which the model was forced with changes in natural forcings (solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosol due to explosive volcanic eruptions), well-mixed greenhouse gases alone, tropospheric anthropogenic forcings (tropospheric ozone, well-mixed greenhouse gases, and the direct and first indirect effects of sulphate aerosol), and anthropogenic forcings (tropospheric anthropogenic forcings and stratospheric ozone decline). Using an “optimal detection” methodology to examine temperature changes near the surface and throughout the free atmosphere, we find that we can detect the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, other anthropogenic forcings (mainly the effects of sulphate aerosols on cloud albedo), and natural forcings. Thus these have all had a significant impact on temperature. We estimate the linear trend in global mean near-surface temperature from well-mixed greenhouse gases to be 0.9 ± 0.24 K/century, offset by cooling from other anthropogenic forcings of 0.4 ± 0.26 K/century, giving a total anthropogenic warming trend of 0.5 ± 0.15 K/century. Over the entire century, natural forcings give a linear trend close to zero. We found no evidence that simulated changes in near-surface temperature due to anthropogenic forcings were in error. However, the simulated tropospheric response, since the 1960s, is ∼50% too large. Our analysis suggests that the early twentieth century warming can best be explained by a combination of warming due to increases in greenhouse gases and natural forcing, some cooling due to other anthropogenic forcings, and a substantial, but not implausible, contribution from internal variability. In the second half of the century we find that the warming is largely caused by changes in greenhouse gases, with changes in sulphates and, perhaps, volcanic aerosol offsetting approximately one third of the warming. Warming in the troposphere, since the 1960s, is probably mainly due to anthropogenic forcings, with a negligible contribution from natural forcings.

Methods for inferring regional surface‐mass anomalies from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements of time‐variable gravity

Abstract: [1] The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE, will deliver monthly averages of the spherical harmonic coefficients describing the Earth's gravity field, from which we expect to infer time-variable changes in mass, averaged over arbitrary regions having length scales of a few hundred kilometers and larger, to accuracies of better than 1 cm of equivalent water thickness. These data will be useful for examining changes in the distribution of water in the ocean, in snow and ice on polar ice sheets, and in continental water and snow storage. We describe methods of extracting regional mass anomalies from GRACE gravity coefficients. Spatial averaging kernels were created to isolate the gravity signal of individual regions while simultaneously minimizing the effects of GRACE observational errors and contamination from surrounding glacial, hydrological, and oceanic gravity signals. We then estimated the probable accuracy of averaging kernels for regions of arbitrary shape and size.