Journal of Global Health 

About: Journal of Global Health is an academic journal published by Edinburgh University Global Health Society. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Medicine & Population. It has an ISSN identifier of 2047-2978. It is also open access. Over the lifetime, 1606 publications have been published receiving 25339 citations. The journal is also known as: JGH.

Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract: In a follow–up to the 2011 United Nations (UN) high level political declaration on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) [1], the World Health Assembly, in 2012, endorsed a new health goal (the “25 by 25 goal”), which focuses on reduction of premature deaths from COPD and other NCDs by 25% by the year 2025 [2]. Despite this initiative, experts have reported that COPD remains a growing [3], but neglected global epidemic [4]. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that there were about 62 million people with moderate to severe COPD in 2002, with the total number of COPD cases predicted to increase to about 200 million in 2010 [5,6]. According to the 2010 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, COPD was responsible for about 5% of global disability–adjusted life years – DALYs (76.7 million) – and 5% of total deaths (2.9 million) [7,8]. COPD is currently rated the fourth most common specific cause of death globally and predicted to be the third by 2030, in the absence of interventions that address the risks – especially tobacco smoking, exposures to combustion products of biomass fuels and environmental pollution [9,10]. The burden of COPD has been reported to be high in some high–income countries (HIC), particularly due to high prevalence of smoking in these settings [11]. For example, between years 2000 and 2010, about 4%–10% of adults were diagnosed with non–reversible and progressive airway obstruction (a basic feature of COPD) in population–based surveys across many European countries, with smoking indicated as a major risk [12]. The WHO has estimated that in many HIC up to 73% of COPD deaths are related to tobacco smoking [6]. The European Union (EU) reported that the direct cost from COPD was over 38.6 billion Euros in 2005, representing about 3% of total health care expenditure [13,14]. In the United States (US), over 2.7 million adults were estimated to have COPD in 2011, with about 135 000 deaths reported [15]. In 2010, the US government spent nearly US$ 49.9 billion on COPD, including 29.5 billion spent on direct health care, 8.0 billion on indirect morbidity and 12.4 billion on indirect mortality costs, respectively [15]. Meanwhile, it has been estimated that despite a high prevalence of COPD in some HIC, 90% of COPD deaths still occur in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC)in the future [4] and 40% of these deaths are attributable to smoking [6]. The burden in LMIC has been comparatively high owing to relatively low COPD awareness, challenges with COPD diagnosis and increased exposures to additional risk factors, especially combustion products of biomass fuels [16]. Salvi and colleagues reported that about 3 billion people globally are exposed to smoke from biomass fuel, compared to 1 billion people who smoke tobacco globally [17]. In many developing countries COPD is neglected by governments, physicians, experts and the pharmaceutical industry, although it's been identified as an important public health problem [4]. In the last two decades, the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) initiative has been collecting country–specific data on the prevalence, risk factors and socioeconomic burden of COPD, using standardized and tested methods for conducting COPD surveys in the general population [18]. This is expected to provide governments of many nations with country–specific evidence on which to develop policy on COPD prevention and management [18]. As noted above, this initiative is yet to take a full effect in many LMIC [19]. In addition, spirometry (the gold standard for COPD diagnosis) is not widely available in many LMIC [16]. Even when it is there, professionals in LMIC are often not being trained properly on how to use spirometers or interpret spirometry results. There is concern that COPD burden has been underestimated, owing to over–reliance on doctor’s diagnosis, with many diagnoses not being based on spirometry and international diagnostic guidelines [20]. The lack of routine COPD data collation and effective health information management system in many LMIC also implies that these settings could have been grossly under–represented in global burden of COPD estimates [11]. Some global and regional estimates of COPD burden have been published [1,21–23]. However, despite the fact that COPD is now prevalent in both HIC and LMIC, experts have raised concerns that reliable estimates of COPD prevalence are still few in many parts of the world. Moreover, many of the estimates are based on varying definitions and diagnostic criteria of COPD [9]. Also, some of the current estimates were reported before the BOLD surveys in several countries, thereby failing to account for the additional spirometry–based epidemiological data from the BOLD surveys. There is a need for a revised and updated estimate of COPD prevalence across world regions. We conducted a systematic review of COPD prevalence based on spirometry data across world regions. Our aim was to provide global and regional prevalence rates of COPD that could facilitate adequate policy response in these regions.

Epidemiology and etiology of childhood pneumonia in 2010: estimates of incidence, severe morbidity, mortality, underlying risk factors and causative pathogens for 192 countries.

Abstract: Background The recent series of reviews conducted within the Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) addressed epidemiology of the two deadly diseases at the global and regional level; it also estimated the effectiveness of interventions, barriers to achieving high coverage and the main implications for health policy. The aim of this paper is to provide the estimates of childhood pneumonia at the country level. This should allow national policy–makers and stakeholders to implement proposed policies in the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF member countries. Methods We conducted a series of systematic reviews to update previous estimates of the global, regional and national burden of childhood pneumonia incidence, severe morbidity, mortality, risk factors and specific contributions of the most common pathogens: Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (flu). We distributed the global and re gional–level estimates of the number of cases, severe cases and deaths from childhood pneumonia in 2010–2011 by specific countries using an epidemiological model. The model was based on the prevalence of the five main risk factors for childhood pneumonia within countries (mal nutrition, low birth weight, non–exclusive breastfeeding in the first four months, solid fuel use and crowding) and risk effect sizes estimated using meta–analysis. Findings The incidence of community–acquired childhood pneumonia in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC) in the year 2010, using World Health Organization's definition, was about 0.22 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.11–0.51) episodes per child–year (e/cy), with 11.5% (IQR 8.0–33.0%) of cases progressing to severe episodes. This is a reduction of nearly 25% over the past decade, which is consistent with observed reductions in the prevalence of risk factors for pneumonia throughout LMIC. At the level of pneumonia incidence, RSV is the most common pathogen, present in about 29% of all episodes, followed by influenza (17%). The contribution of different pathogens varies by pneumonia severity strata, with viral etiologies becoming relatively less important and most deaths in 2010 caused by the main bacterial agents – SP (33%) and Hib (16%), accounting for vaccine use against these two pathogens. Conclusions In comparison to 2000, the primary epidemiological evidence contributing to the models of childhood pneumonia burden has improved only slightly; all estimates have wide uncertainty bounds. Still,

Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever: Systematic review to estimate global morbidity and mortality for 2010

Abstract: Background Typhoid and paratyphoid fever remain important causes of morbidity worldwide. Accurate disease burden estimates are needed to guide policy decisions and prevention and control strategies.

Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project.

Abstract: Background Until recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone, and a 2019 study estimated 99 000-200 000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza. Here we revisit global and regional estimates of influenza mortality burden and explore mortality trends over time and geography. Methods We compiled influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries representing 5 WHO regions during 2002-2011. From these we extrapolated the influenza burden for all 193 countries of the world using a multiple imputation approach. We then used mixed linear regression models to identify factors associated with high seasonal influenza mortality burden, including influenza types and subtypes, health care and socio-demographic development indicators, and baseline mortality levels. Results We estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period, corresponding to ~ 2% of all annual respiratory deaths. Of these, 67% were among people 65 years and older. Global burden estimates were robust to the choice of countries included in the extrapolation model. For people Conclusions Our global estimate of influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality is consistent with the 2017 estimate, despite a different modelling strategy, and the lower 2019 estimate which only captured deaths directly caused by influenza. Our finding that baseline respiratory mortality and access to health care are associated with influenza-related mortality in persons

Assessing available information on the burden of sepsis: global estimates of incidence, prevalence and mortality

Abstract: Objective Sepsis is a complex and hard-to-define condition with many different interactions with other disorders. Presently, there are no estimates of the burden of sepsis and septicaemia at the global level and it was not included in the initial Global Burden of Disease study. Non-maternal sepsis has only recently received attention as a substantial global public health problem. The aim of this study was to assess available data on the burden of non-maternal sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock in the community and to identify key gaps in information needed to estimate the global burden of sepsis. Methods Literature review of English language-based studies reporting on the incidence, prevalence, mortality or case-fatality of sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock. The available literature was searched using the MEDLINE database of citations and abstracts of biomedical research articles published between 1980 and 2008. Findings 8 studies reported incidence of sepsis, severe sepsis or septic shock at the national level (4 from the USA and 1 from Brazil, the UK, Norway and Australia). No studies on the incidence, prevalence, mortality or case-fatality from sepsis in developing countries were found. The population sepsis incidence ranged from 22 to 240/100 000 (most plausible estimates ranged from 149 to 240/100 000); of severe sepsis from 13 to 300/100 000 (most of the estimates were between 56 and 91/100 000); and of septic shock 11/100 000. Case-fatality rate depends on the setting and severity of disease. It can reach up to 30% for sepsis, 50% for severe sepsis and 80% for septic shock. While the data were compiled using strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, a degree of uncertainty still exists regarding the reported estimates. Conclusion The few national-level reports available allow only a very crude estimation of the incidence of sepsis in developed countries while there is apparent lack of data from developing countries. A clear and universal definition of sepsis as well as the development of a sound epidemiological framework to begin addressing the magnitude of this problem is urgently needed through research in developing countries.