Showing papers in "Journal of Land Use Science in 2007"

Comparison of empirical methods for building agent-based models in land use science

Abstract: The use of agent-based models (ABMs) for investigating land-use science questions has been increasing dramatically over the last decade. Modelers have moved from ‘proofs of existence’ toy models to case-specific, multi-scaled, multi-actor, and data-intensive models of land-use and land-cover change. An international workshop, titled ‘Multi-Agent Modeling and Collaborative Planning—Method2Method Workshop’, was held in Bonn in 2005 in order to bring together researchers using different data collection approaches to informing agent-based models. Participants identified a typology of five approaches to empirically inform ABMs for land use science: sample surveys, participant observation, field and laboratory experiments, companion modeling, and GIS and remotely sensed data. This paper reviews these five approaches to informing ABMs, provides a corresponding case study describing the model usage of these approaches, the types of data each approach produces, the types of questions those data can answer, and an ...

A comprehensive global 5 min resolution land-use data set for the year 2000 consistent with national census data

Abstract: This article presents a medium resolution land use data set (5 arc min, c. 10 × 10 km) for the year 2000 that reproduces national land use statistics for cropland and forestry at the country level. We distinguish five land use classes displayed as percent-per-gridcell layers: cropland, grazing, forestry, urban and infrastructure areas, and areas without land use. For each gridcell, the sum of these five layers is 100%; that is, the Earth's total land area is allocated to these five classes. Spatial patterns are derived from available thematic maps and reconciled with national extents from census data. Statistical comparisons of the resulting maps with MODIS and CORINE data demonstrate the reliability of our data set; remaining discrepancies can be largely explained by the conceptual difference between land use and land cover. The data set presented here is aimed to support the systematic integration of socio-economic and ecological data in integrated analyses of the coupled global land system. The data se...

The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

Abstract: A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Forest cover changes in the northern Carpathians in the 20th century: a slow transition

Abstract: The reversal from deforestation to forest increase is named forest transition. It combines factors related to social and economic development or policies attempting to overcome the possible scarcity of timber. This study focuses on forest transition in the northern Carpathians, stretching across four countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Ukraine) with complex history and variability with respect to present-day economical development. Forest maps were computed for the 1930s and 1990s on the basis of available topographical and satellite data. Forest cover changes were then analysed and discussed in the context of population change and environmental conditions of the area. Between the 1930s and the 1990s net forest cover change was between 5% and 31%. The highest values (>20%) were recorded in areas which suffered post-war re-settlement and depopulation. Medium values (10–15%) were found in areas affected by the post-war gradual marginalization and depopulation. The lowest values (<10%) were noted...

Mapping contemporary global cropland and grassland distributions on a 5 x 5 minute resolution

Abstract: This paper describes the development of agricultural land cover maps with 5 × 5 minute resolution based on satellite data and agricultural statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the period 1990–2000. Consistency with the FAO data allows for reconstructing past changes and developing scenarios for future changes in land cover. Two base maps were used: (1) the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP) map based on DISCover data using the IGBP classification; (2) the Global Land Cover (GLC) map based on the Global Land Cover 2000 VEGA2000 data. The underlying DISCover data from the seasonal land cover regions were used to allocate the areas of cropland and grassland for the IGBP map. For the GLC map no such data were available, so a trial and error approach was used. While neither of the two base maps completely matched the FAO country data, combination of the IGBP and GLC maps resulted in a satisfactory match with FAO data for all countries. Apart from noise in the data, in...

Rural Transformation and Social Differentiation in northern Thailand

Abstract: Northern Thailand is undergoing rapid changes in rural areas where new opportunities linked to national and international market demand have arisen for farmers, both on-farm through cash crop demands and off-farm through industrialisation. Using socio-economic data and multilevel regression, we show how modernisation of farming systems and commercialisation of crop production reach villages to various degrees. Most changes in the rural sector are directed towards cash cropping and accentuate socio-economic disparities between households. Most land use changes are linked to social networks but different changes imply different degrees of involvement in agriculture. An analysis of land cover changes identifies the landscape determinants of the location of land use changes.

Modeling of continuous-time land cover change using satellite imagery: an application from North Carolina

Abstract: This study examines the determinants of urbanized area across a 10,000-mile square swath in central North Carolina, an area undergoing extensive conversion of forest and agricultural land. We model the temporal and spatial dimensions of these landscape changes using a database that links five satellite images spanning 1976–2001 to a suite of socioeconomic, ecological and GIS-created explanatory variables. By specifying the complementary log-log derivation of the proportional hazards model, we employ a methodology for modeling a continuous time process—the conversion of land to impervious surface—using discrete-time satellite data. Spatial hypotheses are tested using several variables derived from the imagery that measure the landscape configuration surrounding a pixel. Empirical results confirm the significance of several determinants of urbanization identified elsewhere in the literature, including proximity to roads and population density, but also suggest that the parameterization of these variables is...

Natural and human-induced environmental changes in the semi-arid distal reaches of Botswana's Okavango Delta

Abstract: This paper is based on a study in which oral interviews and historical information and multi-date satellite images and aerial photographs were used to investigate the role of natural and human factors in influencing the direction of environmental change in the semi-arid distal reaches of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. Covering a period of about 15 decades between 1849 and 2001, the major insight from this investigation is that though natural factors account for most of the changes that include increasing scarcities of surface water, localised dewatering of aquifers and persistent bush encroachment, human activities are also playing a significant role by accelerating naturally induced deterioration. With evidence pointing to limited prospects for natural reversal of these trends, the need to embrace coping and adaptive strategies that do not compromise long-term sustainable utilisation of resources in this semi-arid environment is an overdue prerequisite.

Farmers' responses to land transfer under the household responsibility system in Chongqing (China): a case study

Abstract: Chinese farmers are traditionally family-centered in their thinking and behavior and are passionately attached to their land. In a market economy, farmers are the principal agents in agricultural land use, and are directly involved in the allocation of land resources. In the present study, we intended to acquire reasonable interpretations of land transfer under the household responsibility system (HRS) from the perspective of the farmers and identify the underlying driving forces affecting rural land transfer in China. Using a large data set gathered in household surveys conducted in Chongqing from December 2003 to April 2005, this paper examines some important aspects of agricultural land use under HRS, illustrates the present status of the development of land transfer market and describes the responses of the farm households to contract land transfer in the sampling villages. The total area of land transfer varies considerably across the sampling villages. The scope of land transfer shows a striking int...