Showing papers in "Journal of Machine Learning Research in 2014"

Dropout: a simple way to prevent neural networks from overfitting

Abstract: Deep neural nets with a large number of parameters are very powerful machine learning systems. However, overfitting is a serious problem in such networks. Large networks are also slow to use, making it difficult to deal with overfitting by combining the predictions of many different large neural nets at test time. Dropout is a technique for addressing this problem. The key idea is to randomly drop units (along with their connections) from the neural network during training. This prevents units from co-adapting too much. During training, dropout samples from an exponential number of different "thinned" networks. At test time, it is easy to approximate the effect of averaging the predictions of all these thinned networks by simply using a single unthinned network that has smaller weights. This significantly reduces overfitting and gives major improvements over other regularization methods. We show that dropout improves the performance of neural networks on supervised learning tasks in vision, speech recognition, document classification and computational biology, obtaining state-of-the-art results on many benchmark data sets.

Do we need hundreds of classifiers to solve real world classification problems

Abstract: We evaluate 179 classifiers arising from 17 families (discriminant analysis, Bayesian, neural networks, support vector machines, decision trees, rule-based classifiers, boosting, bagging, stacking, random forests and other ensembles, generalized linear models, nearest-neighbors, partial least squares and principal component regression, logistic and multinomial regression, multiple adaptive regression splines and other methods), implemented in Weka, R (with and without the caret package), C and Matlab, including all the relevant classifiers available today. We use 121 data sets, which represent the whole UCI data base (excluding the large-scale problems) and other own real problems, in order to achieve significant conclusions about the classifier behavior, not dependent on the data set collection. The classifiers most likely to be the bests are the random forest (RF) versions, the best of which (implemented in R and accessed via caret) achieves 94.1% of the maximum accuracy overcoming 90% in the 84.3% of the data sets. However, the difference is not statistically significant with the second best, the SVM with Gaussian kernel implemented in C using LibSVM, which achieves 92.3% of the maximum accuracy. A few models are clearly better than the remaining ones: random forest, SVM with Gaussian and polynomial kernels, extreme learning machine with Gaussian kernel, C5.0 and avNNet (a committee of multi-layer perceptrons implemented in R with the caret package). The random forest is clearly the best family of classifiers (3 out of 5 bests classifiers are RF), followed by SVM (4 classifiers in the top-10), neural networks and boosting ensembles (5 and 3 members in the top-20, respectively).

Accelerating t-SNE using tree-based algorithms

Abstract: The paper investigates the acceleration of t-SNE--an embedding technique that is commonly used for the visualization of high-dimensional data in scatter plots--using two tree-based algorithms. In particular, the paper develops variants of the Barnes-Hut algorithm and of the dual-tree algorithm that approximate the gradient used for learning t-SNE embeddings in O(N log N). Our experiments show that the resulting algorithms substantially accelerate t-SNE, and that they make it possible to learn embeddings of data sets with millions of objects. Somewhat counterintuitively, the Barnes-Hut variant of t-SNE appears to outperform the dual-tree variant.

The No-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Abstract: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that avoids the random walk behavior and sensitivity to correlated parameters that plague many MCMC methods by taking a series of steps informed by first-order gradient information. These features allow it to converge to high-dimensional target distributions much more quickly than simpler methods such as random walk Metropolis or Gibbs sampling. However, HMC's performance is highly sensitive to two user-specified parameters: a step size e and a desired number of steps L. In particular, if L is too small then the algorithm exhibits undesirable random walk behavior, while if L is too large the algorithm wastes computation. We introduce the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), an extension to HMC that eliminates the need to set a number of steps L. NUTS uses a recursive algorithm to build a set of likely candidate points that spans a wide swath of the target distribution, stopping automatically when it starts to double back and retrace its steps. Empirically, NUTS performs at least as efficiently as (and sometimes more effciently than) a well tuned standard HMC method, without requiring user intervention or costly tuning runs. We also derive a method for adapting the step size parameter e on the fly based on primal-dual averaging. NUTS can thus be used with no hand-tuning at all, making it suitable for applications such as BUGS-style automatic inference engines that require efficient "turnkey" samplers.

Multimodal learning with deep Boltzmann machines

Abstract: Data often consists of multiple diverse modalities For example, images are tagged with textual information and videos are accompanied by audio Each modality is characterized by having distinct statistical properties We propose a Deep Boltzmann Machine for learning a generative model of such multimodal data We show that the model can be used to create fused representations by combining features across modalities These learned representations are useful for classification and information retrieval By sampling from the conditional distributions over each data modality, it is possible to create these representations even when some data modalities are missing We conduct experiments on bimodal image-text and audio-video data The fused representation achieves good classification results on the MIR-Flickr data set matching or outperforming other deep models as well as SVM based models that use Multiple Kernel Learning We further demonstrate that this multimodal model helps classification and retrieval even when only unimodal data is available at test time

Tensor decompositions for learning latent variable models

Abstract: This work considers a computationally and statistically efficient parameter estimation method for a wide class of latent variable models--including Gaussian mixture models, hidden Markov models, and latent Dirichlet allocation--which exploits a certain tensor structure in their low-order observable moments (typically, of second- and third-order). Specifically, parameter estimation is reduced to the problem of extracting a certain (orthogonal) decomposition of a symmetric tensor derived from the moments; this decomposition can be viewed as a natural generalization of the singular value decomposition for matrices. Although tensor decompositions are generally intractable to compute, the decomposition of these specially structured tensors can be efficiently obtained by a variety of approaches, including power iterations and maximization approaches (similar to the case of matrices). A detailed analysis of a robust tensor power method is provided, establishing an analogue of Wedin's perturbation theorem for the singular vectors of matrices. This implies a robust and computationally tractable estimation approach for several popular latent variable models.

Manopt, a matlab toolbox for optimization on manifolds

Abstract: Optimization on manifolds is a rapidly developing branch of nonlinear optimization. Its focus is on problems where the smooth geometry of the search space can be leveraged to design efficient numerical algorithms. In particular, optimization on manifolds is well-suited to deal with rank and orthogonality constraints. Such structured constraints appear pervasively in machine learning applications, including low-rank matrix completion, sensor network localization, camera network registration, independent component analysis, metric learning, dimensionality reduction and so on. The Manopt toolbox, available at www.manopt.org, is a user-friendly, documented piece of software dedicated to simplify experimenting with state of the art Riemannian optimization algorithms. By dealing internally with most of the differential geometry, the package aims particularly at lowering the entrance barrier.

Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing for high-dimensional regression

Abstract: Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the parameter estimates. This in turn implies that it is extremely challenging to quantify the uncertainty associated with a certain parameter estimate. Concretely, no commonly accepted procedure exists for computing classical measures of uncertainty and statistical significance as confidence intervals or p- values for these models. We consider here high-dimensional linear regression problem, and propose an efficient algorithm for constructing confidence intervals and p-values. The resulting confidence intervals have nearly optimal size. When testing for the null hypothesis that a certain parameter is vanishing, our method has nearly optimal power. Our approach is based on constructing a 'de-biased' version of regularized M-estimators. The new construction improves over recent work in the field in that it does not assume a special structure on the design matrix. We test our method on synthetic data and a high-throughput genomic data set about riboflavin production rate, made publicly available by Buhlmann et al. (2014).

SPMF: a Java open-source pattern mining library

Abstract: We present SPMF, an open-source data mining library offering implementations of more than 55 data mining algorithms. SPMF is a cross-platform library implemented in Java, specialized for discovering patterns in transaction and sequence databases such as frequent itemsets, association rules and sequential patterns. The source code can be integrated in other Java programs. Moreover, SPMF offers a command line interface and a simple graphical interface for quick testing. The source code is available under the GNU General Public License, version 3. The website of the project offers several resources such as documentation with examples of how to run each algorithm, a developer's guide, performance comparisons of algorithms, data sets, an active forum, a FAQ and a mailing list.

Causal discovery with continuous additive noise models

Abstract: We consider the problem of learning causal directed acyclic graphs from an observational joint distribution. One can use these graphs to predict the outcome of interventional experiments, from which data are often not available. We show that if the observational distribution follows a structural equation model with an additive noise structure, the directed acyclic graph becomes identifiable from the distribution under mild conditions. This constitutes an interesting alternative to traditional methods that assume faithfulness and identify only the Markov equivalence class of the graph, thus leaving some edges undirected. We provide practical algorithms for finitely many samples, RESIT (regression with subsequent independence test) and two methods based on an independence score. We prove that RESIT is correct in the population setting and provide an empirical evaluation.

Confidence intervals for random forests: the jackknife and the infinitesimal jackknife

Abstract: We study the variability of predictions made by bagged learners and random forests, and show how to estimate standard errors for these methods. Our work builds on variance estimates for bagging proposed by Efron (1992, 2013) that are based on the jackknife and the infinitesimal jackknife (IJ). In practice, bagged predictors are computed using a finite number B of bootstrap replicates, and working with a large B can be computationally expensive. Direct applications of jackknife and IJ estimators to bagging require B = Θ(n1.5) bootstrap replicates to converge, where n is the size of the training set. We propose improved versions that only require B = Θ(n) replicates. Moreover, we show that the IJ estimator requires 1.7 times less bootstrap replicates than the jackknife to achieve a given accuracy. Finally, we study the sampling distributions of the jackknife and IJ variance estimates themselves. We illustrate our findings with multiple experiments and simulation studies.

Contextual bandits with similarity information

Abstract: In a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem, an online algorithm makes a sequence of choices. In each round it chooses from a time-invariant set of alternatives and receives the payoff associated with this alternative. While the case of small strategy sets is by now well-understood, a lot of recent work has focused on MAB problems with exponentially or infinitely large strategy sets, where one needs to assume extra structure in order to make the problem tractable. In particular, recent literature considered information on similarity between arms. We consider similarity information in the setting of contextual bandits, a natural extension of the basic MAB problem where before each round an algorithm is given the context--a hint about the payoffs in this round. Contextual bandits are directly motivated by placing advertisements on web pages, one of the crucial problems in sponsored search. A particularly simple way to represent similarity information in the contextual bandit setting is via a similarity distance between the context-arm pairs which bounds from above the difference between the respective expected payoffs. Prior work on contextual bandits with similarity uses "uniform" partitions of the similarity space, so that each context-arm pair is approximated by the closest pair in the partition. Algorithms based on "uniform" partitions disregard the structure of the payoffs and the context arrivals, which is potentially wasteful. We present algorithms that are based on adaptive partitions, and take advantage of "benign" payoffs and context arrivals without sacrificing the worst-case performance. The central idea is to maintain a finer partition in high-payoff regions of the similarity space and in popular regions of the context space. Our results apply to several other settings, e.g., MAB with constrained temporal change (Slivkins and Upfal, 2008) and sleeping bandits (Kleinberg et al., 2008a).

Parallelizing exploration-exploitation tradeoffs in Gaussian process bandit optimization

Abstract: How can we take advantage of opportunities for experimental parallelization in exploration-exploitation tradeoffs? In many experimental scenarios, it is often desirable to execute experiments simultaneously or in batches, rather than only performing one at a time Additionally, observations may be both noisy and expensive We introduce Gaussian Process Batch Upper Confidence Bound (GP-BUCB), an upper confidence bound-based algorithm, which models the reward function as a sample from a Gaussian process and which can select batches of experiments to run in parallel We prove a general regret bound for GP-BUCB, as well as the surprising result that for some common kernels, the asymptotic average regret can be made independent of the batch size The GP-BUCB algorithm is also applicable in the related case of a delay between initiation of an experiment and observation of its results, for which the same regret bounds hold We also introduce Gaussian Process Adaptive Upper Confidence Bound (GP-AUCB), a variant of GP-BUCB which can exploit parallelism in an adaptive manner We evaluate GP-BUCB and GP-AUCB on several simulated and real data sets These experiments show that GP-BUCB and GP-AUCB are competitive with state-of-the-art heuristics

Natural evolution strategies

Abstract: This paper presents Natural Evolution Strategies (NES), a recent family of black-box optimization algorithms that use the natural gradient to update a parameterized search distribution in the direction of higher expected fitness. We introduce a collection of techniques that address issues of convergence, robustness, sample complexity, computational complexity and sensitivity to hyperparameters. This paper explores a number of implementations of the NES family, such as general-purpose multi-variate normal distributions and separable distributions tailored towards search in high dimensional spaces. Experimental results show best published performance on various standard benchmarks, as well as competitive performance on others.

Order-independent constraint-based causal structure learning

Abstract: We consider constraint-based methods for causal structure learning, such as the PC-, FCI-, RFCI- and CCD- algorithms (Spirtes et al., 1993, 2000; Richardson, 1996; Colombo et al., 2012; Claassen et al., 2013). The first step of all these algorithms consists of the adjacency search of the PC-algorithm. The PC-algorithm is known to be order-dependent, in the sense that the output can depend on the order in which the variables are given. This order-dependence is a minor issue in low-dimensional settings. We show, however, that it can be very pronounced in high-dimensional settings, where it can lead to highly variable results. We propose several modifications of the PC-algorithm (and hence also of the other algorithms) that remove part or all of this order-dependence. All proposed modifications are consistent in high-dimensional settings under the same conditions as their original counterparts. We compare the PC-, FCI-, and RFCI-algorithms and their modifications in simulation studies and on a yeast gene expression data set. We show that our modifications yield similar performance in low-dimensional settings and improved performance in high-dimensional settings. All software is implemented in the R-package pcalg.

What regularized auto-encoders learn from the data-generating distribution

Abstract: What do auto-encoders learn about the underlying data-generating distribution? Recent work suggests that some auto-encoder variants do a good job of capturing the local manifold structure of data. This paper clarifies some of these previous observations by showing that minimizing a particular form of regularized reconstruction error yields a reconstruction function that locally characterizes the shape of the data-generating density. We show that the auto-encoder captures the score (derivative of the log-density with respect to the input). It contradicts previous interpretations of reconstruction error as an energy function. Unlike previous results, the theorems provided here are completely generic and do not depend on the parameterization of the auto-encoder: they show what the auto-encoder would tend to if given enough capacity and examples. These results are for a contractive training criterion we show to be similar to the denoising auto-encoder training criterion with small corruption noise, but with contraction applied on the whole reconstruction function rather than just encoder. Similarly to score matching, one can consider the proposed training criterion as a convenient alternative to maximum likelihood because it does not involve a partition function. Finally, we show how an approximate Metropolis-Hastings MCMC can be setup to recover samples from the estimated distribution, and this is confirmed in sampling experiments.

A reliable effective terascale linear learning system

Abstract: We present a system and a set of techniques for learning linear predictors with convex losses on terascale data sets, with trillions of features, billions of training examples and millions of parameters in an hour using a cluster of 1000 machines. Individually none of the component techniques are new, but the careful synthesis required to obtain an efficient implementation is. The result is, up to our knowledge, the most scalable and efficient linear learning system reported in the literature. We describe and thoroughly evaluate the components of the system, showing the importance of the various design choices.

Beyond the regret minimization barrier: optimal algorithms for stochastic strongly-convex optimization

Abstract: We give novel algorithms for stochastic strongly-convex optimization in the gradient oracle model which return a O(1/T)-approximate solution after T iterations. The first algorithm is deterministic, and achieves this rate via gradient updates and historical averaging. The second algorithm is randomized, and is based on pure gradient steps with a random step size. his rate of convergence is optimal in the gradient oracle model. This improves upon the previously known best rate of O(log(T/T), which was obtained by applying an online strongly-convex optimization algorithm with regret O(log(T)) to the batch setting. We complement this result by proving that any algorithm has expected regret of Ω(log(T)) in the online stochastic strongly-convex optimization setting. This shows that any online-to-batch conversion is inherently suboptimal for stochastic strongly-convex optimization. This is the first formal evidence that online convex optimization is strictly more difficult than batch stochastic convex optimization.

BayesOpt: a Bayesian optimization library for nonlinear optimization, experimental design and bandits

Abstract: BayesOpt is a library with state-of-the-art Bayesian optimization methods to solve nonlinear optimization, stochastic bandits or sequential experimental design problems Bayesian optimization characterized for being sample efficient as it builds a posterior distribution to capture the evidence and prior knowledge of the target function Built in standard C++, the library is extremely efficient while being portable and flexible It includes a common interface for C, C++, Python, Matlab and Octave

LIBOL: a library for online learning algorithms

Abstract: LIBOL is an open-source library for large-scale online learning, which consists of a large family of efficient and scalable state-of-the-art online learning algorithms for large-scale online classification tasks. We have offered easy-to-use command-line tools and examples for users and developers, and also have made comprehensive documents available for both beginners and advanced users. LIBOL is not only a machine learning toolbox, but also a comprehensive experimental platform for conducting online learning research.

QUIC: quadratic approximation for sparse inverse covariance estimation

Abstract: The l1-regularized Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has been shown to have strong statistical guarantees in recovering a sparse inverse covariance matrix, or alternatively the underlying graph structure of a Gaussian Markov Random Field, from very limited samples. We propose a novel algorithm for solving the resulting optimization problem which is a regularized log-determinant program. In contrast to recent state-of-the-art methods that largely use first order gradient information, our algorithm is based on Newton's method and employs a quadratic approximation, but with some modifications that leverage the structure of the sparse Gaussian MLE problem. We show that our method is superlinearly convergent, and present experimental results using synthetic and real-world application data that demonstrate the considerable improvements in performance of our method when compared to previous methods.

Multi-objective reinforcement learning using sets of pareto dominating policies

Abstract: Many real-world problems involve the optimization of multiple, possibly conflicting objectives. Multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) is a generalization of standard reinforcement learning where the scalar reward signal is extended to multiple feedback signals, in essence, one for each objective. MORL is the process of learning policies that optimize multiple criteria simultaneously. In this paper, we present a novel temporal difference learning algorithm that integrates the Pareto dominance relation into a reinforcement learning approach. This algorithm is a multi-policy algorithm that learns a set of Pareto dominating policies in a single run. We name this algorithm Pareto Q-learning and it is applicable in episodic environments with deterministic as well as stochastic transition functions. A crucial aspect of Pareto Q-learning is the updating mechanism that bootstraps sets of Q-vectors. One of our main contributions in this paper is a mechanism that separates the expected immediate reward vector from the set of expected future discounted reward vectors. This decomposition allows us to update the sets and to exploit the learned policies consistently throughout the state space. To balance exploration and exploitation during learning, we also propose three set evaluation mechanisms. These three mechanisms evaluate the sets of vectors to accommodate for standard action selection strategies, such as e-greedy. More precisely, these mechanisms use multi-objective evaluation principles such as the hypervolume measure, the cardinality indicator and the Pareto dominance relation to select the most promising actions. We experimentally validate the algorithm on multiple environments with two and three objectives and we demonstrate that Pareto Q-learning outperforms current state-of-the-art MORL algorithms with respect to the hypervolume of the obtained policies. We note that (1) Pareto Q-learning is able to learn the entire Pareto front under the usual assumption that each state-action pair is sufficiently sampled, while (2) not being biased by the shape of the Pareto front. Furthermore, (3) the set evaluation mechanisms provide indicative measures for local action selection and (4) the learned policies can be retrieved throughout the state and action space.

Policy evaluation with temporal differences: a survey and comparison

Abstract: Policy evaluation is an essential step in most reinforcement learning approaches. It yields a value function, the quality assessment of states for a given policy, which can be used in a policy improvement step. Since the late 1980s, this research area has been dominated by temporal-difference (TD) methods due to their data-efficiency. However, core issues such as stability guarantees in the off-policy scenario, improved sample efficiency and probabilistic treatment of the uncertainty in the estimates have only been tackled recently, which has led to a large number of new approaches. This paper aims at making these new developments accessible in a concise overview, with foci on underlying cost functions, the off-policy scenario as well as on regularization in high dimensional feature spaces. By presenting the first extensive, systematic comparative evaluations comparing TD, LSTD, LSPE, FPKF, the residual-gradient algorithm, Bellman residual minimization, GTD, GTD2 and TDC, we shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of the methods. Moreover, we present alternative versions of LSTD and LSPE with drastically improved off-policy performance.

Particle gibbs with ancestor sampling

Abstract: Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a systematic way of combining the two main tools used for Monte Carlo statistical inference: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a new PMCMC algorithm that we refer to as particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS). PGAS provides the data analyst with an off-the-shelf class of Markov kernels that can be used to simulate, for instance, the typically high-dimensional and highly autocorrelated state trajectory in a state-space model. The ancestor sampling procedure enables fast mixing of the PGAS kernel even when using seemingly few particles in the underlying SMC sampler. This is important as it can significantly reduce the computational burden that is typically associated with using SMC. PGAS is conceptually similar to the existing PG with backward simulation (PGBS) procedure. Instead of using separate forward and backward sweeps as in PGBS, however, we achieve the same effect in a single forward sweep. This makes PGAS well suited for addressing inference problems not only in state-space models, but also in models with more complex dependencies, such as non-Markovian, Bayesian nonparametric, and general probabilistic graphical models.

Node-based learning of multiple Gaussian graphical models

Abstract: We consider the problem of estimating high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models corresponding to a single set of variables under several distinct conditions. This problem is motivated by the task of recovering transcriptional regulatory networks on the basis of gene expression data containing heterogeneous samples, such as different disease states, multiple species, or different developmental stages. We assume that most aspects of the conditional dependence networks are shared, but that there are some structured differences between them. Rather than assuming that similarities and differences between networks are driven by individual edges, we take a node-based approach, which in many cases provides a more intuitive interpretation of the network differences. We consider estimation under two distinct assumptions: (1) differences between the K networks are due to individual nodes that are perturbed across conditions, or (2) similarities among the K networks are due to the presence of common hub nodes that are shared across all K networks. Using a row-column overlap norm penalty function, we formulate two convex optimization problems that correspond to these two assumptions. We solve these problems using an alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm, and we derive a set of necessary and sufficient conditions that allows us to decompose the problem into independent subproblems so that our algorithm can be scaled to high-dimensional settings. Our proposal is illustrated on synthetic data, a webpage data set, and a brain cancer gene expression data set.

ooDACE toolbox: a flexible object-oriented Kriging implementation

Abstract: When analyzing data from computationally expensive simulation codes, surrogate modeling methods are firmly established as facilitators for design space exploration, sensitivity analysis, visualization and optimization. Kriging is a popular surrogate modeling technique used for the Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (DACE). Hence, the past decade Kriging has been the subject of extensive research and many extensions have been proposed, e.g., co-Kriging, stochastic Kriging, blind Kriging, etc. However, few Kriging implementations are publicly available and tailored towards scientists and engineers. Furthermore, no Kriging toolbox exists that unifies several Kriging flavors. This paper addresses this need by presenting an efficient object-oriented Kriging implementation and several Kriging extensions, providing a flexible and easily extendable framework to test and implement new Kriging flavors while reusing as much code as possible.

Adaptivity of averaged stochastic gradient descent to local strong convexity for logistic regression

Abstract: In this paper, we consider supervised learning problems such as logistic regression and study the stochastic gradient method with averaging, in the usual stochastic approximation setting where observations are used only once. We show that after N iterations, with a constant step-size proportional to 1/R2√N where N is the number of observations and R is the maximum norm of the observations, the convergence rate is always of order O(1/√N), and improves to O(R2/µN) where µ is the lowest eigenvalue of the Hessian at the global optimum (when this eigenvalue is greater than R2/√N. Since µ does not need to be known in advance, this shows that averaged stochastic gradient is adaptive to unknown local strong convexity of the objective function. Our proof relies on the generalized self-concordance properties of the logistic loss and thus extends to all generalized linear models with uniformly bounded features.

The gesture recognition toolkit

Abstract: The Gesture Recognition Toolkit is a cross-platform open-source C++ library designed to make real-time machine learning and gesture recognition more accessible for non-specialists. Emphasis is placed on ease of use, with a consistent, minimalist design that promotes accessibility while supporting flexibility and customization for advanced users. The toolkit features a broad range of classification and regression algorithms and has extensive support for building real-time systems. This includes algorithms for signal processing, feature extraction and automatic gesture spotting.

Bridging Viterbi and posterior decoding: a generalized risk approach to hidden path inference based on hidden Markov models

Abstract: Motivated by the unceasing interest in hidden Markov models (HMMs), this paper reexamines hidden path inference in these models, using primarily a risk-based framework. While the most common maximum a posteriori (MAP), or Viterbi, path estimator and the minimum error, or Posterior Decoder (PD) have long been around, other path estimators, or decoders, have been either only hinted at or applied more recently and in dedicated applications generally unfamiliar to the statistical learning community. Over a decade ago, however, a family of algorithmically defined decoders aiming to hybridize the two standard ones was proposed elsewhere. The present paper gives a careful analysis of this hybridization approach, identifies several problems and issues with it and other previously proposed approaches, and proposes practical resolutions of those. Furthermore, simple modifications of the classical criteria for hidden path recognition are shown to lead to a new class of decoders. Dynamic programming algorithms to compute these decoders in the usual forward-backward manner are presented. A particularly interesting subclass of such estimators can be also viewed as hybrids of the MAP and PD estimators. Similar to previously proposed MAP-PD hybrids, the new class is parameterized by a small number of tunable parameters. Unlike their algorithmic predecessors, the new risk-based decoders are more clearly interpretable, and, most importantly, work "out-of-the box" in practice, which is demonstrated on some real bioinformatics tasks and data. Some further generalizations and applications are discussed in the conclusion.

Follow the leader if you can, hedge if you must

Abstract: Follow-the-Leader (FTL) is an intuitive sequential prediction strategy that guarantees constant regret in the stochastic setting, but has poor performance for worst-case data. Other hedging strategies have better worst-case guarantees but may perform much worse than FTL if the data are not maximally adversarial. We introduce the FlipFlop algorithm, which is the first method that provably combines the best of both worlds. As a stepping stone for our analysis, we develop AdaHedge, which is a new way of dynamically tuning the learning rate in Hedge without using the doubling trick. AdaHedge refines a method by Cesa-Bianchi, Mansour, and Stoltz (2007), yielding improved worst-case guarantees. By interleaving AdaHedge and FTL, FlipFlop achieves regret within a constant factor of the FTL regret, without sacrificing AdaHedge's worst-case guarantees. AdaHedge and FlipFlop do not need to know the range of the losses in advance; moreover, unlike earlier methods, both have the intuitive property that the issued weights are invariant under rescaling and translation of the losses. The losses are also allowed to be negative, in which case they may be interpreted as gains.