Showing papers in "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking in 2014"

Foreign banks: Trends and Impact

Abstract: Over the past two decades, foreign banks have become much more important in domestic financial intermediation, heightening the need to understand their behavior. We introduce a new, comprehensive database, made publicly available, on bank ownership (including the home country of foreign banks) for 5,324 banks in 137 countries over the period 1995-2009. We document large increases in foreign bank presence in many countries, but with substantial heterogeneity in terms of host and banks’ home countries, bilateral investment patterns, and bank characteristics. In terms of impact, we document that the relation between private credit and foreign bank presence importantly depends on host country and banks’ characteristics. Specifically, foreign banks only seem to have a negative impact on credit in low-income countries, in countries where they have a limited market share, where enforcing contracts is costly and where credit information is limited available, and when they come from distant home countries. This shows that accounting for heterogeneity, including bilateral ownership, is crucial to better understand the implications of foreign bank ownership.

Does Macro-Prudential Regulation Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment

Abstract: The regulation of bank capital as a means of smoothing the credit cycle is a central element of forthcoming macro-prudential regimes internationally. For such regulation to be effective in controlling the aggregate supply of credit it must be the case that: (i) changes in capital requirements affect loan supply by regulated banks, and (ii) unregulated substitute sources of credit are unable to offset changes in credit supply by affected banks. This paper examines micro evidence—lacking to date—on both questions, using a unique data set. In the UK, regulators have imposed time-varying, bank-specific minimum capital requirements since Basel I. It is found that regulated banks (UK-owned banks and resident foreign subsidiaries) reduce lending in response to tighter capital requirements. But unregulated banks (resident foreign branches) increase lending in response to tighter capital requirements on a relevant reference group of regulated banks. This “leakage” is substantial, amounting to about one-third of the initial impulse from the regulatory change.

The Interaction between Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy

Abstract: The interaction between capital requirements and monetary policy is assessed by means of simple rules in a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring a banking sector. In “normal” times, when economic dynamics are driven by supply shocks, an active use of capital requirements generates modest benefits in terms of volatility of the target variables compared to the case in which only the central bank carries out stabilization policies. The lack of cooperation between the two policymakers may result in excessive volatility of the monetary policy rate and capital requirements. The benefits of introducing capital requirements become sizeable when financial shocks, which affect the supply of loans, are important drivers of economic dynamics; the availability of capital requirements as a policy tool yields a significant gain in terms of macroeconomic stabilization, regardless of the type of interaction between monetary and capital requirements policies.

Multinational banks and the global financial crisis: Weathering the perfect storm?

Abstract: We use data on the 48 largest multinational banking groups to compare the lending of their 199 foreign subsidiaries during the Great Recession with lending by a benchmark group of 202 domestic banks. Contrary to earlier, more contained, crises, parent banks were not a significant source of strength to their subsidiaries during the 2008-09 crisis. As a result, multinational bank subsidiaries had to slow down credit growth about twice as fast as domestic banks. This was particularly the case for subsidiaries of banking groups that relied more on wholesale-market funding. Domestic banks were better equipped to continue lending because of their greater use of deposits, a relatively stable funding source during the crisis. We conclude that while multinational banks may contribute to financial stability during local bouts of financial turmoil, they also increase the risk of “importing” instability from abroad.

The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound : a cross-country analysis

Abstract: This paper assesses the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies by estimating a panel vector autoregression (VAR) with monthly data from eight advanced economies over a sample spanning the period since the onset of the global financial crisis. It finds that an exogenous increase in central bank balance sheets at the zero lower bound leads to a temporary rise in economic activity and consumer prices. The estimated output effects turn out to be qualitatively similar to the ones found in the literature on the effects of conventional monetary policy, while the impact on the price level is weaker and less persistent. Individual country results suggest that there are no major differences in the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies across countries, despite the heterogeneity of the measures that were taken.

The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Global Real Economic Activity

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity using a quarterly vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and allows one to incorporate an extraneous indicator of oil price uncertainty such as realized volatility that greatly improves the precision of the estimated uncertainty series. The estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock has negative effects on world industrial production all else equal. For example, it is shown that a doubling of oil price volatility is associated with a cumulative decline as high as 0.3 percentage points in world industrial production.

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve

Abstract: We introduce a model of monetary policy with downward nominal wage rigidities and show that both the slope and curvature of the Phillips curve depend on the level of inflation and the extent of downward nominal wage rigidities. This is true for the both the long-run and the short-run Phillips curve. Comparing simulation results from the model with data on U.S. wage patterns, we show that downward nominal wage rigidities likely have played a role in shaping the dynamics of unemployment and wage growth during the last three recessions and subsequent recoveries.

The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective

Abstract: Using detailed data on loan applications and decisions for a large sample of manufacturing firms in Italy during the recent financial crisis, we find that the credit crunch has been harsher in provinces with a large share of branches owned by distantly managed banks. Inconsistent with a flight to quality we do not find evidence that economically weaker firms suffered more during the crisis. In contrast, we find that financially healthier firms were affected more in functionally distant credit markets than in markets populated by less distant banks, consistent with a home bias on the part of nationwide banks.

Bank Earnings Management and Tail Risk during the Financial Crisis

Abstract: We show that a pattern of earnings management in bank financial statements has little bearing on downside risk during quiet periods, but seems to have a big impact during a financial crisis. Banks demonstrating more aggressive earnings management prior to 2007 exhibit substantially higher stock market risk once the financial crisis begins as measured by the incidence of large weekly stock price “crashes” as well as by the pattern of full-year returns. Stock price crashes also predict future deterioration in operating performance. Bank regulators may therefore interpret them as early warning signs of impending problems.

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

Abstract: We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt-to-GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt-to-GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt-to-GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long-run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.

The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Abstract: Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining US recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions We provide the first formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of oil price shocks over course of the next two years is much larger in the net oil price increase model For example, oil price shocks explain a 3% cumulative reduction in US real GDP in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a 5% cumulative reduction during the financial crisis An obvious concern is that some of these estimates are an artifact of net oil price increases being correlated with other variables that explain recessions We show that the explanatory power of oil price shocks largely persists even after augmenting the nonlinear model with a measure of credit supply conditions, of the monetary policy stance and of consumer confidence There is evidence, however, that the conditional fit of the net oil price increase model is worse on average than the fit of the corresponding linear model, suggesting much smaller cumulative effects of oil price shocks for these episodes of at most 1%

The Information Value of the Stress Test

Abstract: We investigate whether the “stress test,” the extraordinary examination of the 19 largest U.S. bank holding companies conducted by federal bank supervisors in 2009, produced useful information for the market. Using standard event study techniques, we find that the market had largely deciphered on its own which banks would have capital gaps before the stress test results were revealed, but that the market was informed by the size of the gap; given our proxy for the expected gap, banks with larger capital gaps experienced more negative abnormal returns. Our findings are consistent with the view that the stress tests produced valuable information about banks.

Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior

Abstract: We analyze the link between banks and the macroeconomy using a model that extends a macroeconomic VAR for the U.S. with a set of factors summarizing conditions in about 1,500 commercial banks. We investigate how macroeconomic shocks are transmitted to individual banks and obtain the following main findings. Backward-looking risk of a representative bank declines, and bank lending increases following expansionary shocks. Forward-looking risk increases following an expansionary monetary policy shock. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, which is due to bank size, capitalization, liquidity, risk, and the exposure to real estate and consumer loans.

Bank Heterogeneity and Interest Rate Setting: What Lessons Have We Learned since Lehman Brothers?

Abstract: A substantial literature has investigated the role of relationship lending in shielding borrowers from idiosyncratic shocks. Much less is known about how lending relationships and bank-specific characteristics affect the functioning of the credit market in an economy-wide crisis. We investigate how bank and bank–firm relationship characteristics have influenced interest rate setting since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that interest rate spreads increased by less for those borrowers having closer lending relationships. Furthermore, firms borrowing from banks endowed with large capital and liquidity buffers and from banks engaged mainly in traditional lending were kept more insulated from the financial crisis.

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Abstract: In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during "normal times" (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.

Too Big to Be Efficient? The Impact of Implicit Subsidies on Estimates of Scale Economies for Banks

Abstract: We examine whether “too-big-to-fail” (TBTF) factors affect estimates of scale economies for large banks. From a standard model of bank production that does not control for any TBTF factors, we find evidence of scale economies for our sample of large banks. We then control for TBTF factors by using a measure of the “implicit subsidy” that emerges from a reduction in TBTF banks’ funding costs due to investor expectations of government support. We do this in two ways: first, we estimate scale economies from an augmented model of bank production that employs a proxy for the counterfactual price of debt that banks would face in the absence of any TBTF funding cost advantage; second, we estimate scale economies from a model of bank production that is estimated only for a sample of banks considered unlikely to be TBTF. After controlling for TBTF factors using either method, we no longer find evidence of scale economies for our sample of large banks. These results suggest that estimated scale economies for large banks are affected by TBTF factors.

Divisia Monetary Aggregates, the Great Ratios, and Classical Money Demand Functions

Abstract: King et al. (1991) evaluate the empirical relevance of a class of real business cycle models with permanent productivity shocks by analyzing the stochastic trend properties of postwar U.S. macroeconomic data. They find a common stochastic trend in a three-variable system that includes output, consumption, and investment, but the explanatory power of the common trend drops significantly when they add money balances and the nominal interest rate. In this paper, we revisit the cointegration tests in the spirit of King et al., using improved monetary aggregates whose construction has been stimulated by the Barnett critique. We show that previous rejections of the balanced growth hypothesis and classical money demand functions can be attributed to mismeasurement of the monetary aggregates.

Bank Bonuses and Bail-Outs

Abstract: This paper shows that bonus contracts may arise endogenously as a response to agency problems within banks, and analyzes how compensation schemes change in reaction to anticipated bailouts. If there is a risk-shifting problem, bailout expectations lead to steeper bonus schemes and even more risk taking. If there is an effort problem, the compensation scheme becomes flatter and effort decreases. If both types of agency problems are present, a sufficiently large increase in bailout perceptions makes it optimal for a welfare-maximizing regulator to impose caps on bank bonuses. In contrast, raising managers' liability can be counterproductive.

The Happiness Trade‐Off between Unemployment and Inflation

Abstract: Unemployment and inflation lower well-being. The macroeconomist Arthur Okun characterized the negative effects of unemployment and inflation by the misery index—the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. This paper makes use of a large European data set, covering the period 1975–2013, to estimate happiness equations in which an individual subjective measure of life satisfaction is regressed against unemployment and inflation rate (controlling for personal characteristics, country, and year fixed effects). We find, conventionally, that both higher unemployment and higher inflation lower well-being. We also discover that unemployment depresses well-being more than inflation. We characterize this well-being trade-off between unemployment and inflation using what we describe as the misery ratio. Our estimates with European data imply that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers well-being by more than five times as much as a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation rate.

Economic Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

Abstract: We present experimental evidence of a link between economic literacy and inflation forecast accuracy The experiment investigates two channels through which economic literacy may enable better forecasts: (i) choice of information and (ii) use of information More literate subjects choose more relevant information and use the given information more effectively Starting from a 10th percentile score, the boost in literacy from taking an economics course predicts a 064 standard deviation decline in mean absolute forecasting error Our findings suggest that a significant portion of demographic heterogeneity in inflation expectations—observed in survey data—may be driven by heterogeneity in economic literacy

Location Decisions of Foreign Banks and Competitor Remoteness

Abstract: This paper examines the role of "competitor remoteness"—the weighted average distance of all competing banks to a host country—on the location decision of a foreign bank. It uses unique, bilateral data on 1,199 foreign banks from 75 home countries present in 110 host countries. It finds that, besides bilateral distance, competitor remoteness importantly drives foreign banks’ location decisions. The impact of distance and competitor remoteness is stronger for non-OECD home and host countries, when the scale of foreign bank inward and outward investment is limited, and for host countries where foreign banks dominate.

FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations

Abstract: We explore empirically the theoretical prediction that public information acts as a focal point in the context of the U.S. monetary policy. We aim at establishing whether the publication of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) inflation forecasts affects the cross-sectional dispersion of private inflation expectations. Our main finding is that publishing FOMC inflation forecasts has a negative effect on the cross-sectional dispersion of private current-year inflation forecasts. This effect is found to be robust to another survey data set and to various macroeconomic controls. Moreover, we find that the dispersion of private inflation forecasts is not affected by the dispersion of views among FOMC members.

Bank Funding, Securitization, and Loan Terms: Evidence from Foreign Currency Lending

Abstract: We examine how bank funding structure and securitization activities affect the currency denomination of business loans. We analyze a unique data set that includes information on the requested and granted loan currency for 99,490 loans granted to 57,464 firms by a Bulgarian bank. Our findings document that foreign currency lending is at least partially driven by bank eagerness to match the currency structure of assets with that of liabilities. Our results also show that loan currency, as well as loan amount and maturity, are adjusted to make loans eligible for securitization.

Bond pricing with a time-varying price of risk in an estimated medium-scale Bayesian DSGE model

Abstract: A New-Keynesian model in which households have Epstein–Zin preferences with time-varying risk aversion and the central bank has a time-varying in‡ation target can match the dynamics of nominal bond prices in the US economy well The model generates a large steady-state term spread and its …tting errors for bond yields are comparable to those obtained from a nonstructural three-factor model, and one third smaller than in models with a constant in‡ation �

Which Fundamentals Drive Exchange Rates? A Cross‐Sectional Perspective

Abstract: Standard present-value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals, implying that exchange rates contain information about future fundamentals. We test this key empirical prediction of present-value models in a sample of 35 currency pairs ranging from 1900 to 2009. Employing a variety of tests, we find that exchange rates have strong and significant predictive power for nominal fundamentals (inflation, money balances, nominal GDP), whereas predictability of real fundamentals and risk premia is much weaker and largely confined to the post-Bretton Woods era. Overall, we uncover ample evidence that future macro fundamentals drive current exchange rates.

Maintaining Adequate Bank Capital

Abstract: The Basel framework has produced complex definitions of “adequate” capital, expressed in terms of book (accounting) ratios. However, solvency actually depends not on accounting ratios but on private investors’ valuation of the firm’s assets’ and liabilities’ market values. At large banking firms, short-term liability-holders key off the firm’s economic solvency when deciding whether to renew their claims. Runs can cause a large bank’s failure regardless of its book capital ratio. Yet supervisors have been largely unable to maintain minimum risk-bearing capacity at large institutions. Actual default probabilities have often exceeded the 0.1% annual rate to which Basel II was calibrated. Over the past 25 years, the median probability of failure (PD) was 0.55%, with some large banks substantially higher. The value of conjectural guarantees has averaged 11.41% of the largest 25 U.S. BHCs’ equity value. I conclude by discussing the extent to which orderly resolution or contingent capital bonds might improve supervisory oversight.

Information from Relationship Lending: Evidence from Loan Defaults in China

Abstract: Using a proprietary database from a large Chinese state-owned bank, we examine whether information evolved from banking relationships predicts commercial loan default by industrial firms. We find that the bank's relationship information is significantly linked to the incidence of default, and that its contribution to prediction accuracy is larger than any hard information. Furthermore, the effect of relationship information is stronger among firms that have a more sustained banking relationship. Our findings indicate that, at least in the emerging markets, a bank's relationship information still matters for large firms, despite the fact that hard information for such firms is abundant.

Money Laundering as a Crime in the Financial Sector: A New Approach to Quantitative Assessment, with an Application to Italy

Abstract: This study provides an answer to the question of how much cash deposited via a financial institution can be traced back to criminal activities, by developing a new approach to measure money laundering and proposing an application to Italy. We define a model of cash in-flows on current accounts considering, besides “dirty money” to be laundered, also the legal motivations to deposit cash and the role of the shadow economy. We find that the average amount of cash laundered in Italy is around 6% of GDP. These findings are coherent with estimates of the nonobserved economy obtained in previous studies.

The Riskiness of Corporate Bonds

Abstract: We use an index of riskiness recently proposed by Aumann and Serrano (2008) to analyze how the riskiness of diversified portfolios of corporate bonds changes across rating classes and through time and how it compares to the riskiness of other financial instruments. We find that differences in riskiness among portfolios of bonds belonging to different rating classes are seldom statistically significant. We instead find significant time variation in riskiness, driven mainly by return volatility, inflation, and average bond yields. In particular, we find that increases in average bond yields have historically tended to reduce the riskiness of portfolios of corporate bonds by increasing their expected return and by lowering the probability of portfolio losses.

Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments, Currency Demand, and Withdrawal Behavior

Abstract: This paper provides one explanation why cash is still used for transactions despite a broad diffusion of noncash payment instruments. In particular, we argue that a distinctive feature of cash—a glance into one's pocket gives a signal of the remaining budget and past expenses—provides utility to some consumers. Using payment survey data, we show that consumers who need to keep control over their remaining liquidity and who have elevated costs of information processing conduct a larger percentage of payments using cash, withdraw less often, and hold larger cash balances than other consumers.