Showing papers in "Journal of Peace Research in 2007"
8,455 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a series of hypotheses on how transnational factors can influence the risk of conflict and the prospects for maintaining peace in a conditional autologistic model, including country-specific factors often associated with civil wars.
Abstract: Existing research has related civil war primarily to country-specific factors or processes that take place within individual states experiencing conflict. Many contemporary civil wars, however, display a transnational character, where actors, resources, and events span national boundaries. This article challenges the 'closed polity' approach to the study of civil war, where individual states are treated as independent entities, and posits that transnational factors and linkages between states can exert strong influences on the risk of violent civil conflict. Previous research has shown that conflicts in a state's regional context can increase the risk of conflict, but the research has not distinguished between different varieties of transnational linkages that may underlie geographic contagion, and it has failed to consider the potential influences of domestic attributes. The article develops and evaluates a series of hypotheses on how transnational factors can influence the risk of conflict and the prospects for maintaining peace in a conditional autologistic model, including country-specific factors often associated with civil wars. The results suggest that transnational linkages between states and regional factors strongly influence the risk of civil conflict. This, in turn, implies that the risk of civil war is not determined just by a country's internal or domestic characteristics, but differs fundamentally, depending on a country's linkages to other states.
507 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present new data on the direct and deliberate killings of civilians, called one-sided violence, in intrastate armed conflicts, 1989-2004, and show that the post-Cold War era is characterized by periods of fairly low-scale violence punctuated by occasional sharp increases in violence against civilians.
Abstract: This article presents new data on the direct and deliberate killings of civilians, called one-sided violence, in intrastate armed conflicts, 1989—2004. These data contribute to the present state of quantitative research on violence against civilians in three important respects: the data provide actual estimates of civilians killed, the data are collected annually and the data are provided for both governments and rebel groups. Using these data, general trends and patterns are presented, showing that the post-Cold War era is characterized by periods of fairly low-scale violence punctuated by occasional sharp increases in violence against civilians. Furthermore, rebels tend to be more violent on the whole, while governments commit relatively little violence except in those few years which see mass killings. The article then examines some factors that have been found to predict genocide and evaluates how they correlate with one-sided violence as conceptualized here. A U-shaped correlation between regime type and one-sided violence is identified: while autocratic governments undertake higher levels of one-sided violence than other regime types, rebels are more violent in democratic countries.
502 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a series of cross-national analyses on the impact of two key human rights treaties is presented, showing that governments, including repressive ones, frequently make legal commitments to human rights agreements, subscribing to recognized norms of protection and creating opportunities for socialization and capacity-building necessary for lasting reforms, but these commitments mostly have no effects on the world's most terrible repressors even long into the future.
Abstract: International human rights treaties have been ratified by many nation-states, including those ruled by repressive governments, raising hopes for better practices in many corners of the world. Evidence increasingly suggests, however, that human rights laws are most effective in stable or consolidating democracies or in states with strong civil society activism. If so, treaties may be failing to make a difference in those states most in need of reform ‐ the world’s worst abusers ‐ even though they have been the targets of the human rights regime from the very beginning. The authors address this question of compliance by focusing on the behavior of repressive states in particular. Through a series of cross-national analyses on the impact of two key human rights treaties, the article demonstrates that (1) governments, including repressive ones, frequently make legal commitments to human rights treaties, subscribing to recognized norms of protection and creating opportunities for socialization and capacity-building necessary for lasting reforms; (2) these commitments mostly have no effects on the world’s most terrible repressors even long into the future; (3) recent findings that treaty effectiveness is conditional on democracy and civil society do not explain the behavior of the world’s most abusive governments; and (4) realistic institutional reforms will probably not help to solve this problem.
360 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the use of transitional justice mechanisms for human rights violations, including domestic and international human rights trials, in the 1990s and 2000s, and present the current state of the art.
Abstract: Since the 1980s, states have been increasingly addressing past human rights violations using multiple transitional justice mechanisms including domestic and international human rights trials. In th...
305 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that single-party regimes are generally less repressive than other autocracies and that military governments decrease civil liberties restriction and the end of the Cold War has varied influences on repression, depending upon the form considered and whether this variable is interacted with another.
Abstract: Existing literature on state repression generally ignores the diversity that exists within autocracies. At present, different political systems are collapsed together, leaving unique approaches to political order unexamined. This limitation is important for policymakers, activists, and everyday citizens around the world seeking new ways to reduce government coercion. Within this study, the author explores an alternative path to decreasing repression – a ‘tyrannical peace’. Examining 137 countries from 1976 to 1996, he finds that single-party regimes are generally less repressive than other autocracies. Results also show that military governments decrease civil liberties restriction and the end of the Cold War has varied influences on repression, depending upon the form considered and whether this variable is interacted with another. There are thus alternative routes to peace, but these routes are not equally robust. The implications of this analysis are threefold. First, those interested in understanding why states restrict civil liberties and violate human rights must disaggregate their conceptions of system type and repression. Second, policymakers must adjust their approach to reducing state repression according to the type of authoritarian government they are confronted with. Third, advocates for human rights must accept that, in lieu of full democratization, alternatives exist.
269 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the negative effects of civil wars and the post-civil war environment on educational expenditures and enrollment and found that civil wars are likely to destroy a state's system of education through the loss of infrastructure and personnel, while a less deleterious cause may be the drawing away of funds for increased military expenditures to fight the civil war.
Abstract: This study examines the negative effects of civil wars and the post-civil war environment on educational expenditures and enrollment. Two causal mechanisms are considered. First, civil wars are likely to destroy a state's system of education through the loss of infrastructure and personnel. Second, a less deleterious cause may be the drawing away of funds for increased military expenditures to fight the civil war. Using UNESCO education data, the authors examine the percent change in educational expenditures and primary, secondary, and tertiary enrollment for all states from 1980 through 1997. The authors use a measure of when a state is in a civil war, a dynamic post-civil war measure, an interaction with military spending, and relevant control variables. The results indicate strong support for the notion that civil war is devastating for a system of education, as both expenditures and enrollment decline during periods of civil war. No support was found for the reallocation of education funds towards military spending during a civil war. These results highlight the importance of addressing the social costs of a civil war. Civil wars do not simply impose social costs because of increased funding to the military; rather, they severely disrupt a state's ability to provide even basic social services.
188 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a road map for the relationship between the USA and Muslims is proposed, where the authors argue that the real problem of the Western world is not so much Islamism as our own cultural closure.
Abstract: States’ (p. 6). Thornton accurately notes that 9/11 is not just a geopolitical challenge but also a cultural one. The real problem of the Western world therefore is ‘not so much Islamism as our own cultural closure’ (p. 215). Neoglobalist policies have pushed much of the Muslim world into the enemy camp. With that awareness, Thornton offers an alternative road map for the relationship between the USA and Muslims. Most of the time, a blind eye is turned to the fact that the worst enemy of jihadic militants is civic Islam. Muslim theology is not inherently violent and most of the religious Muslim authorities rejected bin Laden’s call for a global jihad. Therefore, the best ally is the ‘enemy of our enemy: civic Islam’ (p. 29). It is obvious that religious identity trumps over values. ‘The choice, therefore is not between Islamism and secularism, but civil and uncivil Islam’ (p. 213). In eight well-documented chapters, Thornton demonstrates that civil Islam is the missing link between the USA and the Islamic world. Unfortunately, the new world empire fails to recognize that. It is up to peace researchers to stress or to disprove Thornton’s thesis. Nevertheless, New World Empire shows that there are other ways of dealing with the Islamic world and the roots of Islamic terrorism. Jodok Troy
184 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of biased mediators in bringing belligerents to a negotiated settlement in internal armed conflicts was investigated, and it was suggested that biased third parties may mitigate commitme...
Abstract: What is the role of biased mediators in bringing belligerents to a negotiated settlement in internal armed conflicts? Previous research has suggested that biased third parties may mitigate commitme ...
162 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated sexual violence committed by government security forces and found that sexual violence is more likely to be attributable to the selfish motivations of agents and it is an act that is likely to remain hidden.
Abstract: This article investigates sexual violence committed by government security forces It focuses on the issue of delegation It uses principal—agent logic to understand sexual violence committed by these forces and to set up a cross-national empirical analysis The article provides an approach to measuring the amount of agent discretion in a political system and an analysis of new cross-national data on the incidence of rape and sexual violence committed by police and security forces It is argued that sexual violence is a category of human rights violation that is more likely to be attributable to the selfish motivations of agents, and it is an act that is likely to be hidden This article identifies the conditions under which these acts are most likely to occur as conditions of conflict, system-wide slack bureaucratic control, and where there are constraints on information and organization The theoretical argument makes sense of earlier findings in the human rights literature, such as the importance of de
127 citations
TL;DR: This paper conducted a regression analysis of human rights reporting by The Economist and Newsweek from 1986 to 2000, covering 145 countries and found that these two media sources cover abuses in human rights terms more frequently when they occur in countries with higher levels of state repression, economic development, population, and Amnesty International attention.
Abstract: What influences the Northern media's coverage of events and abuses in explicit human rights terms? Do international NGOs have an impact, and, if so, when are they most effective? This article addresses these questions with regression analysis of human rights reporting by The Economist and Newsweek from 1986 to 2000, covering 145 countries. First, it finds that these two media sources cover abuses in human rights terms more frequently when they occur in countries with higher levels of state repression, economic development, population, and Amnesty International attention. There is also some evidence that political openness, number of battle-deaths, and civil societies affect coverage, although these effects were not robust. Second, it finds that Amnesty International's press releases appear to have less impact on media coverage when discussing abuses in countries that are central to the media's zone of concern. Indeed, Amnesty's press advocacy may be more effective when addressing violations in lesser-noti...
TL;DR: A survey in 2000-02 in both the Greek and Turkish-Cypriot communities examines the beliefs about the root causes of the Cyprus conflict, the political culture, social attitudes, and future solutions as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: A survey in 2000--02 in both the Greek- and Turkish-Cypriot communities examines the beliefs about the root causes of the Cyprus conflict, the political culture, social attitudes, and future solutions. This article shows that both external and internal factors, both psychological and contextual, have played an influential role in the creation and perpetuation of the conflict -- a view that challenges the selective official positions that define the problem as either a problem of external factors or merely an internal discord between the majority and minority population. The article highlights the complexity that characterizes intractable conflicts. It promotes the view that internal, contextual, and psychological factors are equally significant, as are legal and political factors, to be taken into account when addressing peacebuilding and future solutions. Some generalizations will be made with regard to the value of micro-level (i.e. societal studies) research in the field of conflict resolution and political psychology.
TL;DR: In 2006, 32 armed conflicts were active, a figure that has remained constant for three years as mentioned in this paper, with no new conflicts having erupted in the last two years, in contrast to the situation in the early 1990s.
Abstract: In 2006, 32 armed conflicts were active, a figure that has remained constant for three years. The decline in armed conflict observed through most of the post-Cold War period has ceased, at least temporarily. Many of the conflicts active in 2006 have a long history, which may have made them more entrenched and thus more difficult to solve. In fact, in contrast to the situation in the early 1990s, no new conflicts have erupted in the last two years. No interstate conflicts were active in 2006, but five of the intrastate conflicts were internationalized. While four of the conflicts recorded for 2005 were no longer active in 2006, four conflicts restarted, two with actions taken by new rebel groups and two by previously recorded actors.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors unpack the puzzle of why some minorities seek affirmative action while others pursue territorial autonomy or secession, given similar conditions at the substate level, and propose a solution to the puzzle.
Abstract: Why do some minorities seek affirmative action while others pursue territorial autonomy or secession, given similar conditions at the substate level? This article attempts to unpack the puzzle of m...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined a standard gravity model of international commerce augmented to include political and institutional influences on bilateral trade and showed that the often-reported link between international conflict and bilateral trade is elusive and that inclusion of conflict in a trade model can sometimes lead to reduced out-of-sample predictive performance.
Abstract: The authors examine a standard gravity model of international commerce augmented to include political as well as institutional influences on bilateral trade. Using annual data from 1980-2001, they estimate regression coefficients and residual dependencies using a hierarchy of models in each year. Rather than gauge the generalizability of these patterns via traditional measures of statistical significance such as p-values, this article develops and employs a strategy to evaluate the out-of-sample predictive strength of various models. The analysis of recent international commerce shows that in addition to a typical gravity-model specification, political and institutional variables are important. The article also demonstrates that the often-reported link between international conflict and bilateral trade is elusive, and that inclusion of conflict in a trade model can sometimes lead to reduced out-of-sample predictive performance. Further, this article illustrates that there are substantial, persistent resid...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate how past aid commitments, the level of human rights violations, and substantial changes in the respect for human rights influence the decision of European donors on whom to give aid to, how to choose a new recipient country that did not receive aid previously, and how much aid to give to countries that made it past the gatekeeping stage.
Abstract: Most studies on foreign aid and human rights have ignored the role of bureaucratic inertia in the allocation process. By not controlling for which developing countries have received aid in the past and how much aid they have received, continuity of aid flows remains unaccounted for. Additionally, previous studies have not allowed for a possible non-linear relationship between human rights and aid. This study investigates aid commitments from the European Commission, Germany, France, and the UK, paying attention to non-linear effects of human rights on aid commitments and the role of bureaucratic inertia. Using data from 1978 to 2003, the study investigates how past aid commitments, the level of human rights violations, and substantial changes in the respect for human rights influence the decision of European donors on whom to give aid to, how to choose a new recipient country that did not receive aid previously, and how much aid to give to countries that made it past the gatekeeping stage. Controlling for...
TL;DR: In this paper, a regional dataset on internal terrorism, Terrorism in Western Europe: Event Data (TWEED), covering the period 1950 through 2004 for 18 West European countries, is presented.
Abstract: The article presents a regional dataset on internal terrorism, Terrorism in Western Europe: Event Data (TWEED), covering the period 1950 through 2004 for 18 West European countries. As the dataset covers internal terrorism, the distinction between this form of terrorism and international terrorism is discussed. In demarcating international from internal terrorism, the former is usually taken to mean terrorism involving nationals or territory of more than one state. In TWEED, however, terrorism is regarded as internal when terrorists act within their own political systems. Terrorists originating from outside Western Europe, but committing acts of terrorism inside the region, are excluded from TWEED. Next, the article discusses the selection of sources from which the coding is done. With its combination of continuous coverage and good reporting of Western Europe, Keesing’s was chosen as the source for TWEED. The article discusses problems of source coverage related to relying on a single source. Finally, th...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the socio-economic determinants of the 'routine' kind of social violence in Java and find a non-linear relationship between violence and the stages of development in terms of income and education.
Abstract: Social violence in Indonesia centres around vigilantism/popular justice and group brawls. This kind of violence occurs frequently and, hence, can be described as `routine'. While episodic violence associated with intercommunal and secessionist strife gets most attention, the everyday type does not produce headlines, escaping academic scrutiny. As a result, there is no social policy to reduce everyday violence other than police responses. This study seeks to examine the socio-economic determinants of the `everyday' kind of social violence in Java. The authors employ count-data analysis of panel data for around 100 districts in Java during 1994--2003. Economic crises, which are measured by the size of economic contraction and the increase in poverty, are positively associated with the level of violence. Growth acceleration and poverty reduction are good for social harmony. The study finds a non-linear relationship, in the form of an inverted-U-shaped curve, between violence and the stages of development in terms of income and education. Initially, violence increases as income or education rises, but, later on, the level of violence falls as income or education continues to increase. This is because, at first, the opportunity cost of violence decreases, and then it increases. Therefore, an emphasis on human development in the early phase of development will have a strong violence-reducing impact.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce a new dataset reporting annual infant mortality rates for all states in the world, based on the Correlates of War state system list, between 1816 and 2002.
Abstract: Systematic data on annual infant mortality rates are of use to a variety of social science research programs in demography, economics, sociology, and political science. Infant mortality rates may be used both as a proxy measure for economic development, in lieu of energy consumption or GDP-per-capita measures, and as an indicator of the extent to which governments provide for the economic and social welfare of their citizens. Until recently, data were available for only a limited number of countries based on regional or country-level studies and time periods for years after 1950. Here, the authors introduce a new dataset reporting annual infant mortality rates for all states in the world, based on the Correlates of War state system list, between 1816 and 2002. They discuss past research programs using infant mortality rates in conflict studies and describe the dataset by exploring its geographic and temporal coverage. Next, they explain some of the limitations of the dataset as well as issues associated with the data themselves. Finally, they suggest some research areas that might benefit from the use of this dataset. This new dataset is the most comprehensive source on infant mortality rates currently available to social science researchers.
TL;DR: The authors argue that perceptions are shaped not only by the human rights conditions within a country, but also by individual-level factors such as gender and political allegiance, which suggests that the concept of human Rights may share similar meanings in the minds of citizens and experts for at least some aspects of human rights values.
Abstract: Human rights abuses occur regularly around the world, affecting millions of citizens each year. Unfortunately, few studies have sought to examine the structure and role domestic perceptions play wh...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the relationship between the severity of violence in crises and the number of involved states with nuclear weapons and found that actors will show more restraint in crises involving more participants with nuclear arms.
Abstract: The literature on international conflict is divided on the impact of nuclear proliferation on state conflict. The optimists’ argument contends that nuclear weapons raise the stakes so high that states are unlikely to go to war when nuclear weapons enter the equation. The pessimists rebut this argument, contending that new proliferators are not necessarily rational and that having nuclear weapons does not discourage war but rather makes war more dangerous. Focusing on one observable implication from this debate, this article examines the relationship between the severity of violence in crises and the number of involved states with nuclear weapons. The study contends that actors will show more restraint in crises involving more participants with nuclear weapons. Using data from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project, the results demonstrate that crises involving nuclear actors are more likely to end without violence and, as the number of nuclear actors involved increases, the likelihood of war continues to fall. The results are robust even when controlling for a number of factors including non-nuclear capability. In confirming that nuclear weapons tend to increase restraint in crises, the effect of nuclear weapons on strategic behavior is clarified. But the findings do not suggest that increasing the number of nuclear actors in a crisis can prevent war, and they cannot speak to other proliferation risks.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the relationship between democratic national legislative and presidential elections and government respect for human rights in over 100 countries from 1981 to 2000, and found that both presidential and lower-house national legislative elections were associated with greater government respect of human rights, but only in the years following an election and not in election years themselves.
Abstract: What exactly is it about democracy that enables it to protect human rights? As part of the research program addressing that important question, this article examines the relationship between democratic national legislative and presidential elections and government respect for human rights in over 100 countries from 1981 to 2000. Both presidential (direct and semi-presidential) and lower-house national legislative elections are found to be reliably associated with greater government respect for human rights, but only in the years following an election and not in election years themselves. Interestingly, national legislative elections were found to be associated with greater government respect for human rights, while presidential elections were associated with less respect for human rights. Consequently, the authors caution that the historically popular concept of electoralism (the use of elections alone as a proxy for full democracy) is unlikely to play a positive part in any policy intending to protect hu...
TL;DR: This paper argued that the Provisional IRA decision to end its campaign was influenced considerably by three separate but interrelated factors: (1) the internationalization of Northern Ireland by successive US governments beyond the limits of domestic UK politics; (2) the evolution of the Irish-American political lobby in the 1990s, from outcome-driven objectives to process-driven and attainable goals; and (3) the current leadership of Irish republican movement has orientated itself around the changing social fabric of Irish-America which is smaller and less cohesive than in the past.
Abstract: This article examines the changing role of Irish-America in the Northern Ireland peace process and contends that it played a pivotal role in the Provisional IRA's announcement in July 2005 that it was ending its campaign of violence. It is argued here that the IRA decision to end its campaign was influenced considerably by three separate but interrelated factors: (1) the internationalization of Northern Ireland by successive US governments beyond the limits of domestic UK politics; (2) the evolution of the Irish-American political lobby in the 1990s, from outcome-driven objectives to process-driven and attainable goals; and (3) the current leadership of the Irish republican movement has orientated itself around the changing social fabric of Irish-America, which is smaller and less cohesive than in the past. More broadly, the article demonstrates the way in which the dynamics of internal conflict can be altered by external actors via the use of `soft power' strategies, in a manner that can assist the development of a peace process.
TL;DR: The authors assesses the relevance of prominent "Kantian" hypotheses for understanding the international politics of Asia, drawing on recent liberal peace and Asian security research, and assesses their relevance for understanding international politics in Asia.
Abstract: Drawing on recent liberal peace and Asian security research, this article assesses the relevance of prominent ‘Kantian’ hypotheses for understanding the international politics of Asia. While there ...
TL;DR: Despite three decades of persistent efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement, the small island of Cyprus still remains physically and demographically divided, despite the failure of the 2004 Annan Plan.
Abstract: Despite three decades of persistent efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement, the small island of Cyprus still remains physically and demographically divided. Failure of the 2004 Annan Plan h...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the effect of domestic unrest and domestic turmoil on the diversionary impulse in seven major powers of Renaissance Italy (1250-1494) and found that domestic unrest increased the probability that the challenger will initiate conflict, or do targets avoid states experiencing unrest.
Abstract: Diversionary theory argues that leaders threatened by domestic turmoil manipulate the ‘rally around the flag’ effect by initiating conflict abroad. This conflict mitigates the negative effects of the unrest, saving the leader’s position. Previous analyses of the diversionary impulse have proven inconclusive. This study expands the literature in three ways. First, it broadens the spatial and temporal domain by examining the seven major powers of Renaissance Italy (1250-1494). Since diversionary theory was developed by looking at the actions of states in the modern system, testing it in a different empirical domain is important. Second, it uses a directed-dyadic research design, which can examine directional hypotheses. For instance, does domestic unrest increase the probability that the challenger will initiate conflict, or do targets avoid states experiencing unrest? Last, the analyses simultaneously assess the effects of regime change (the highest form of unrest) and domestic turmoil on the conflict beha...
TL;DR: This paper investigated the role of reputation and history in the onset of militarized interstate war and found that states in crises face competing pressures brought on by their history of interactions with their opponents and their opponents' reputations generated through interactions with other states.
Abstract: This article investigates the role of direct and reputational information in the onset of interstate war. Scholars have recently identified the importance of separating the phenomenon of conflict from the rare event of war. Building on earlier work concerning the role of reputation and history in the onset of militarized interstate, this article argues that states in crises face competing pressures brought on by their history of interactions with their opponents and their opponents’ reputations generated through interactions with other states. While historical conflict reveals private information regarding the credibility of state demands, this history also generates constraints upon the ability of governments to seek peaceful resolutions to the current crisis. An empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that both a direct history of conflict within the dyad and reputational histories for conflict increase the likelihood of war onset. These results hold for a sample including all dyads 1817–2000 and a sample including politically relevant dyads in the same period. The results also suggest that contiguous states are more likely to go to war with each other, as are pairs of major powers, while democracies and pairs of minor powers are less likely to go to war with each other. These results support previous findings on the influence of these factors on the likelihood of war onset.