Showing papers in "Journal of Peace Research in 2011"
TL;DR: It is demonstrated how careful use of SSM as a ‘second best’ but still valuable methodology can help generate cooperation and make the difference between research conducted under constrained conditions and research not conducted at all.
Abstract: Conducting research in conflict environments is a challenge, given their complexity and common attitudes of distrust and suspicion. Yet, conflict and methodology are usually analyzed as separate fields of interest. Methodological aspects of field work in conflict environments have not been systematically analyzed. This article addresses the central methodological problems of research conducted in conflict environments. We suggest the use of the snowball sampling method (hereafter, SSM) as an answer to these challenges. The effectiveness of this method has been recognized as significant in a variety of cases, mainly regarding marginalized populations. We claim that in conflict environments, the entire population is marginalized to some degree, making it ‘hidden’ from and ‘hard to reach’ for the outsider researcher. The marginalization explains why it is difficult to locate, access and enlist the cooperation of the research populations, which in a non-conflict context would not have been difficult to do. SS...
567 citations
TL;DR: This paper presented a new dataset on coups from 1950 to 2010 and examined general trends in the data across time and space, concluding that scholars studying a variety of topics, including civil wars, regime stability, and democratization, would benefit from paying closer attention to coups.
Abstract: Once considered a ‘hot topic’ among scholars, research on coups d’etat has waned in recent years. This decline is surprising given that 7 coups have happened between January 2008 and December 2010, bringing the last decade’s total to almost three dozen. One explanation for the lack of coup research is the absence of a temporally and spatially comprehensive dataset to test theories. Also absent is a discussion of what makes coups distinct from other forms of anti-regime activity. This article seeks to remedy these problems. The authors present a new dataset on coups from 1950 to 2010. They begin by explaining their theoretical definition and coding procedures. Next, they examine general trends in the data across time and space. The authors conclude by explaining why scholars studying a variety of topics, including civil wars, regime stability, and democratization, would benefit by paying closer attention to coups.
457 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a method to separate the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) into transnational and domestic terrorist incidents was proposed, which is essential for the understanding of some terrorism phenomena when the two types of terrorism are hypothesized to have different impacts.
Abstract: This article devises a method to separate the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) into transnational and domestic terrorist incidents. This decomposition is essential for the understanding of some terrorism phenomena when the two types of terrorism are hypothesized to have different impacts. For example, transnational terrorism may have a greater adverse effect than domestic terrorism on economic growth. Moreover, the causes of the two types of terrorism may differ. Once the data are separated, we apply a calibration method to address some issues with GTD data - namely, the missing data for 1993 and different coding procedures used before 1998. In particular, we calibrate the GTD transnational terrorist incidents to ITERATE transnational terrorist incidents to address GTD's undercounting of incidents in much of the 1970s and its overcounting of incidents in much of the 1990s. Given our assumption that analogous errors characterize domestic terrorist events in GTD, we apply the same calibrations to adjust GTD domestic incidents. The second part of the article investigates the dynamic aspects of GTD domestic and transnational terrorist incidents, based on the calibrated data. Contemporaneous and lagged cross-correlations for the two types of terrorist incidents are computed for component time series involving casualties, deaths, assassinations, bombings, and armed attacks. We find a large cross-correlation between domestic and transnational terrorist incidents that persists over a number of periods. A key finding is that shocks to domestic terrorism result in persistent effects on transnational terrorism; however, the reverse is not true. This finding suggests that domestic terrorism can spill over to transnational terrorism, so that prime-target countries cannot ignore domestic terrorism abroad and may need to assist in curbing this homegrown terrorism.
398 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors revisited the relationship between poverty and terrorism and suggested a new factor to explain patterns of domestic terrorism: minority economic discrimination, and found that countries featuring minority group economic discrimination are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks.
Abstract: Recognizing that the empirical literature of the past several years has produced an inconclusive picture, this study revisits the relationship between poverty and terrorism and suggests a new factor to explain patterns of domestic terrorism: minority economic discrimination. Central to this study is the argument that because terrorism is not a mass phenomenon but rather is undertaken by politically marginal actors with often narrow constituencies, the economic status of subnational groups is a crucial potential predictor of attacks. Using data from the Minorities at Risk project, I determine that countries featuring minority group economic discrimination are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks, whereas countries lacking minority groups or whose minorities do not face discrimination are significantly less likely to experience terrorism. I also find minority economic discrimination to be a strong and substantive predictor of domestic terrorism vis-a-vis the general level of ec...
352 citations
TL;DR: In 2010, UCDP recorded 30 active armed conflicts (i.e., with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths) with a substantial reduction in relation to the 36 conflicts registered for 2009.
Abstract: In 2010, UCDP recorded 30 active armed conflicts (i.e. with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths). This is a substantial reduction in relation to the 36 conflicts registered for 2009. A drop of th ...
313 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the evolution of reconciliation-aimed contact interventio... and examine the impact of planned contact interventions between groups in conflict, including between Israeli Jews and Palestinians.
Abstract: In the past few decades, planned contact interventions between groups in conflict have played an important role in attempts at improving intergroup relations and achieving peace and reconciliation. This article focuses on such reconciliation-aimed intergroup encounters between Israeli Jews and Palestinians that seek to reduce hostility and increase understanding and cooperation between the two nationalities. Like other contact interventions conducted in settings of intergroup conflict, encounters between Israeli Jews and Palestinians represent a paradoxical project: this is a project that aspires to generate equality and cooperation between groups that are embedded in a protracted asymmetrical conflict. Though existing research teaches us valuable lessons on the effectiveness of contact conducted under optimal conditions, little is said about contact between groups involved in asymmetrical protracted dispute. The goal of this analysis is to examine the evolution of reconciliation-aimed contact interventio...
279 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical study was conducted among a nationwide representative sample of Jews in Israel, within the context of the Middle Eastern conflict, and the results showed a path leading from general worldviews (e.g. General values, Right Wing Authoritarianism, Implicit theories about groups) to openness to new information and readiness to compromise through the me...
Abstract: Socio-psychological barriers play a major role in the continuation of intractable conflicts. They are responsible for the socio-psychological closure that resists and prevents the entertainment of alternative information that could potentially facilitate the acceptance of ideas advancing peacemaking processes. In an attempt to validate a process model that depicts the functioning of the socio-psychological barriers to conflict resolution, an empirical study was conducted among a nationwide representative sample of Jews in Israel, within the context of the Middle Eastern conflict. The reported study utilized a large scale survey, based on a nationwide representative sample of Israeli Jews who were asked to respond to a questionnaire which included the model’s selected variables. As hypothesized, the results showed a path leading from general worldviews (e.g. General values, Right Wing Authoritarianism, Implicit theories about groups) to openness to new information and readiness to compromise through the me...
198 citations
TL;DR: The dataset on mediation in civil wars – termed the Civil War Mediation dataset – is introduced, the first dataset to focus solely on civil war mediation, and mediation is shown to be a function of war type, duration, war duration, supply-side factors, and stratum.
Abstract: Mediation is one of the few mechanisms the international community can deploy that will affect civil wars. This article introduces the dataset on mediation in civil wars – termed the Civil War Mediation (CWM) dataset. This is the first dataset to focus solely on civil war mediation. These data contribute to the present state of quantitative research on mediation in three important respects: the data are collected for the period of 1946–2004, are organized by mediation cases and by civil war episode, and provide detailed information about mediation incidences. The article first presents a few variables included in the dataset that are motivated by theoretical arguments from the literature. After a presentation of summary statistics, attention is turned to using the CWM data to explore the determinants of mediation. Mediation is shown to be a function of war type (territorial and internationalized wars are more likely to be mediated), war duration (the longer the war the higher the probability of mediation)...
135 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the supply side of peacekeeping and explore the determinants of a country's voluntary contributions to peacekeeping operations, focusing on troop contribution and examine a large set of operations.
Abstract: We explore the supply side of peacekeeping – the determinants of a country’s voluntary contributions to peacekeeping operations. We focus on troop contribution and examine a large set of operations...
133 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that trust in government is a critical element of regime legitimacy and the state's ability to mediate between civil conflict and state failure has often been linked to breakdowns in regime legitimacy.
Abstract: Civil conflict and state failure has often been linked to breakdowns in regime legitimacy. Trust in government is a critical element of regime legitimacy and the state’s ability to mediate between ...
123 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the adverse effects of domestic and transnational terrorism on income per capita growth for 51 African countries for 1970-2007, while accounting for cross-sectional (spati...
Abstract: This article investigates the adverse effects of domestic and transnational terrorism on income per capita growth for 51 African countries for 1970–2007, while accounting for cross-sectional (spati...
TL;DR: For example, this paper argued that democratic regimes have been linked to terrorism for contending reasons, with some scholars claiming that democracy increases terrorism and others claiming that it decreases terrorism. Corroborating evidence ha...
Abstract: Democratic regimes have been linked to terrorism for contending reasons, with some scholars claiming democracy increases terrorism and others claiming it decreases terror. Corroborating evidence ha...
TL;DR: In this paper, survey respondents in 14 countries representing 62% of the world's Muslim population indicate that approval of Islamist terror is not associated with religiosity, lack of education, poverty, or income dissatisfaction.
Abstract: Survey respondents in 14 countries representing 62% of the world’s Muslim population indicate that approval of Islamist terror is not associated with religiosity, lack of education, poverty, or income dissatisfaction. Instead, it is associated with urban poverty. These results are consistent with the thesis that Islamist terrorists obtain support and recruits from the urban poor, who pursue their economic interests off the market in politics in collective groups. These groups compete over state rents, so a gain for one group is a loss for another, making terrorism of members of out-groups rational. The rise of militant Islam can be attributed to high rates of urbanization in many Muslim countries in recent decades, which fosters violence as rising groups seek to dislodge prior groups entrenched in power. Rising group leaders also compete over new urban followers, so they promote fears of out-groups and package in-group identities in ways that ring true for the urban poor. Because many of the urban poor ar...
TL;DR: The authors proposed a strategic explanation for the USA's continued provision of military aid to host states with problems of terrorism, despite its poor empirical record, using a game theoretic approach. But their analysis was limited to the case of terrorism.
Abstract: This study proposes a strategic explanation for the USA’s continued provision of military aid to host states with problems of terrorism, despite its poor empirical record. Using a game theoretic mo...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a rational theory of international terrorism, which argues that attacking foreign nationals is of strategic value to terrorists even if they ultimately aim at gaining political influence in their home country, and applied it to the US case, their theory predicts that more anti-American terrorism emanates from countries that receive more US military aid and arms transfers and in which more American military personnel are stationed, all relative to the country's own military capacity.
Abstract: Americans are a major target of international terrorism. Yet, terrorists from some countries are much more likely to attack American citizens than terrorists from other countries. Similarly, anti-American terrorism from a specific foreign country is much more prevalent during certain periods than others. This article develops a rational theory of international terrorism, which argues that attacking foreign nationals is of strategic value to terrorists even if they ultimately aim at gaining political influence in their home country. Attacking foreigners is the more attractive to domestic terrorists the more the terrorists’ home government depends on military support from the foreign country. Applied to the US case, our theory predicts that more anti-American terrorism emanates from countries that receive more US military aid and arms transfers and in which more American military personnel are stationed, all relative to the country’s own military capacity. Estimations from a directed country dyad sample over the period 1978 to 2005 support the predictions of our theory for both terrorist incidents involving Americans and terrorist killings of Americans as dependent variables. These results are robust to a wide range of changes to the empirical research design.
TL;DR: Several possible relationships between natural resources and civil conflict have been hypothesized and tested in the literature as mentioned in this paper, and the impact of resources on conflict should depend on the circumstance of conflict.
Abstract: Several possible relationships between natural resources and civil conflict have been hypothesized and tested in the literature. The impact of resources on conflict should depend on the circumstanc...
TL;DR: LeRIT as mentioned in this paper is a dataset which identifies the legislative response to international terrorism in 20 liberal Western democracies, 2001-08, in order to identify 30 regula-a...
Abstract: This article presents a new dataset dubbed LeRIT which identifies the legislative response to international terrorism in 20 liberal Western democracies, 2001–08. The dataset distinguishes 30 regula...
TL;DR: In this paper, the main contributions to date of the empirical and theoretical literature on terrorism are identified and briefly discussed, and a rich diversity of topics and methods are discussed, which can enlighten the reader on the consequences of terrorism.
Abstract: This article opens the special issue by identifying the main contributions to date of the empirical and theoretical literature on terrorism. Important past theoretical articles investigated the application of game theory to study interactions among adversaries (e.g. terrorists and governments) and allies (e.g. commonly targeted governments). Past empirical articles examined the effectiveness of counter-terrorism policies, the root causes of terrorism, the dynamics of terrorist attacks, and other topics. This introduction also indicates new areas of research emphasis – e.g. the study of suicide terrorism and foreign aid as a counter-terrorism tool. Next, the introduction highlights some key definitions – e.g. domestic and transnational terrorism – that are applied throughout the special issue. Each article of the special issue is then introduced and briefly discussed. These articles display a rich diversity of topics and methods; nevertheless, they enlighten the reader on the consequences of terrorism. Top...
TL;DR: The authors examines the relationship between economic openness and internal conflict and discusses different theoretical perspectives on how openness affects a country's internal conflict, and concludes that economic openness is correlated with internal conflict.
Abstract: This article examines the relationship between economic openness and internal conflict. The article first discusses different theoretical perspectives on how openness affects a country’s internal s...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors contribute to our understanding of transboundary environmental management regimes through the application of an analytical framework that facilitates an exploration of the co-existencen...
Abstract: This article contributes to our understanding of transboundary environmental management regimes through the application of an analytical framework that facilitates an exploration of the co-existenc...
TL;DR: The authors showed that country size, mountainous terrain and ethnic diversity seem significant for the continuation of civil wars, starting from the null hypothesis that variables affect onset and continuation probabilities identically, rather than e.g.
Abstract: It is very common to analyse the factors associated with the onset and continuation of civil wars entirely separately, as if there were likely to be no similarity between them. This is an overstatement of the theoretical position, which has established only that they may be different (i.e. less than perfectly correlated). The hypothesis that the explanatory variables are the same is not theoretically excludable and is empirically testable, both for individual variables and for combinations of them. Starting from this approach yields a rather different picture of the factors associated with the continuation of civil wars, because the relatively small sample size means that confidence intervals on individual coefficients are wide in this case. It is shown here that country size, mountainous terrain and (in most datasets) ethnic diversity seem significant for the continuation of civil wars, starting from the null hypothesis that variables affect onset and continuation probabilities identically, rather than e...
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of civil conflict on reported marine and inland fish catch were surveyed, focusing on the effects through redeployment of labor, population displacement, counter-insurgency strategy and tactics, and third-party encroachment into territorial waters.
Abstract: While the negative economic consequences of civil conflict are well known, does civil conflict have sector-specific effects that threaten food and economic security? This article surveys the effects of civil conflict on reported marine and inland fish catch, focusing on the effects of conflict through redeployment of labor, population displacement, counter-insurgency strategy and tactics, and third-party encroachment into territorial waters. Analysis of 123 countries from 1952 to 2004 demonstrates a strong, statistically robust and negative relationship between civil conflict and fisheries, with civil wars (1000+ battle deaths) depressing catch by over 16% relative to prewar levels. The magnitude of this effect is large: the cumulative contraction in total fish catch associated with civil war onset is roughly 13 times larger than the estimated effect of an extraordinarily strong El Nino, the ocean-atmosphere phenomenon associated with global declines in fisheries. Robust evidence of a Phoenix effect is lacking: post-conflict fisheries do not quickly bounce back to prewar catch levels due to more rapid growth. Analysis of conflict episodes indicates that conflict intensity, measured by battle deaths, negatively affects fish catch, while population displacement and conflict proximity to the coast do not. While these findings contribute to the growing literature on the economic effects of civil conflict, they also are important for regional fisheries management organizations, which must increasingly pay attention to sociopolitical factors that dramatically affect the utilization of aquatic resources.
TL;DR: In the past two decades, a new international regime of individual criminal accountability has emerged as a dominant regulatory mechanism to address gross human rights violations as discussed by the authors. But, at the same time, it has been criticised for being ineffective and ineffective.
Abstract: Over the past two decades, a new international regime of individual criminal accountability has emerged as a dominant regulatory mechanism to address gross human rights violations. At the same time...
TL;DR: A comprehensive coding of 779 human rights instruments from 1863 to 2003 is presented in this paper, which offers an extensive portrayal of how, and to what degree, this powerful doctrine has been formally institutionalized over time.
Abstract: This article summarizes the results of a recently completed, comprehensive coding of 779 human rights instruments from 1863 to 2003. As such, it offers an extensive portrayal of how, and to what degree, this powerful doctrine has been formally institutionalized over time. Following a brief overview of the data collection process, selected results from this study are presented that highlight how many human rights instruments have been drafted, what kind of violations have been most prominent, the number of rights that have been specified over time, and the ultimate aspirations that are linked to the realization of human rights. Next, potential applications of this dataset are discussed regarding both human rights and peace research scholarship. Specifically, the results shed new light on the historical development of human rights by highlighting key periods of instrument growth in the late 19th century, the interwar years, and the post-World War II period. In addition, the data can effectively augment recent quantitative studies that measure the effect of treaty ratification on internal state violence by helping to generate more extensive ratification information, develop better measures of state compliance, and construct new measures that assess how human rights principles get translated into national practice and potentially mitigate state violence over time.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the extent to which military intervention affects women's rights and conclude that if the use of armed forces ever helps or causes no damage to women's well-being, it will likely be during interventions led by intergovernmental organizations (IGO).
Abstract: A large body of scholarly work has been devoted to the possible consequences of foreign military intervention for the target state. This literature, however, tends to be state-centric and mostly neglects the insight from gender-specific theoretical and empirical perspectives. The purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which military intervention affects women’s rights. It is argued that unilateral interventions are prone to diminishing women’s status by encouraging the persistence or creation of repressive regimes and contributing to political disorder in the target state. If the use of armed forces ever helps or causes no damage to women’s well-being, it will likely be during interventions led by intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). This is because IGO interventions are unlikely to protect or support an authoritarian, patriarchal political system. Furthermore, such multilateral missions will increase international awareness of women’s status along with other human rights issues in the tar...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose that multilateral and diplomatic resolutions to intrastate conflicts are the preferred method of termination, however, mediated settlements tend toward failure and conflict recurrence.
Abstract: Multilateral and diplomatic resolutions to intrastate conflicts are the preferred method of termination. However, mediated settlements tend toward failure and conflict recurrence. A significant fac...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors look at the relationship of arms races to war, with appropriate consideration of rivalries, and find that arms races are more common in rivalries than in lesser competitions.
Abstract: In this study, we look at the relationship of arms races to war, with appropriate consideration of rivalries. Are arms races more common in rivalries than in lesser competitions? Are they merely a ...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate three explanations for the adoption of a major-power foreign policy: potential power, potential threat, and economic expansion of a country's potential power.
Abstract: Some states define their interests more broadly than others, looking beyond their immediate security and mobilizing their national wealth in pursuit of more ambitious goals. The most successful of these states come to be seen by others as major powers. Though major powers and states aspiring to attain this status are very important in world politics, relatively little explicit attention has been paid to the question of why some states expand their foreign policy ambitions, adopting what can be termed a major-power foreign policy. This article evaluates three explanations for this policy choice. Some international relations theory claims that potential power is itself a sufficient motivation for the adoption of major-power foreign policy. Other theorists suggest that some triggering condition is required, such as increasing international threat or expanding international economic interests. Evidence concerning the construction of military capabilities and diplomatic activism indicates that potential power ...
TL;DR: Ceasefires are often seen as a simple measure to end violence and allow more substantive negotiations to begin this paper, and contemporary conflict resolution models posit the ceasefire as a basic step in t...
Abstract: Ceasefires are often seen as a simple measure to end violence and allow more substantive negotiations to begin. Contemporary conflict resolution models thus posit the ceasefire as a basic step in t...
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of terrorism on income, including its indirect role through lowering trust, is investigated, and a measure of the economic consequences of terrorism through sizing the magnitude of the 'trust tax' from terrorism.
Abstract: Previous research has shown that trust is an important component that encourages investment and capital formation which, in turn, enhances economic performance. This article investigates the effect of terrorism on income, including its indirect role through lowering trust. We consider terrorism as a factor that can increase the cost of investing in technology and capital formation due to its ability to diminish trust in an economy. We then develop a novel and rich dataset spanning 179 countries from 1968 to 2007 using associated community, social, cultural, political, and economic factors from the World Values Survey and international terrorism incidence data from ITERATE. Using empirical tests, we first show that terrorism has a negative and statistically significant impact on individual income. This impact is larger than what has previously been found, possibly due to aggregation effects and data selection. We then estimate the societal impact of terrorism on economic growth by examining the extent to which terrorism taxes trust and how this, in turn, hinders economic performance. Consequently, we develop a measure of the economic consequences of terrorism through sizing the magnitude of the 'trust tax' from terrorism. We find that the trust tax is relatively minor compared to the direct impact of terrorism on income.