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Showing papers in "Journal of Peace Research in 2016"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report on trends in organized violence from data collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), with almost 90,000 deaths recorded by UCDP last year, 2017 saw a decrease for t...
Abstract: This article reports on trends in organized violence from data collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). With almost 90,000 deaths recorded by UCDP last year, 2017 saw a decrease for t...

322 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a framework for understanding variation in armed groups' abilities to control wartime violence, including violence against civilians, is proposed, arguing that patterns (both levels and fo...
Abstract: This article proposes a framework for understanding variation in armed groups’ abilities to control wartime violence, including violence against civilians. I argue that patterns (both levels and fo...

128 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the use of drone strikes for counterterrorism, a subject of considerable debate, and investigate whether international legal criticisms impact public support for drone strikes, the centerpiece of US counterterrorism policy, or whether individuals are mo...
Abstract: Despite the increased emphasis on domestic politics in the study of international law, scholars remain divided about whether and how international law affects domestic institutions. Moreover, while public support is a core ingredient for sustainable, legitimate policies in a democracy, research at the individual level of analysis remains limited. Weighing in on these areas of study, we investigate the use of drone strikes for counterterrorism, a subject of considerable debate. Proponents in the government point to drones as both effective for disrupting terrorist networks and compatible with international law. Critics from groups such as international organizations (IOs) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) respond that attacks create more terrorists than they kill and violate legal commitments. The central question we ask in this article is whether these international legal criticisms impact public support for drone strikes, the centerpiece of US counterterrorism policy, or whether individuals are mo...

78 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine if the composition of UN peacekeeping forces along two dimensions, the proportion of women and the records of gender (in)equality in the contributing countries, helps explain variation in sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) allegations.
Abstract: Sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) is an endemic problem in UN peacekeeping missions. It is not only a gross human rights violation, but also threatens to challenge the legitimacy of the peacekeeping mission and undermines the promotion of gender equality in host countries. We examine if the composition of peacekeeping forces along two dimensions – the proportion of women and the records of gender (in)equality in the contributing countries – helps explain variation in SEA allegations. Analysis of mission-level information from 2009 to 2013 indicates that including higher proportions of both female peacekeepers and personnel from countries with better records of gender equality is associated with lower levels of SEA allegations reported against military contingents. We conclude that substantial reductions in SEA perpetrated by peacekeepers requires cultivation of a value for gender equality among all peacekeepers – improving the representation of women may help but still stops short of addressing the root...

75 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The holding of elections has become universal but only about half of all elections are free and fair as discussed by the authors, and electoral malpractice not only distorts the quality of representation but has implications for...
Abstract: The holding of elections has become universal but only about half of all elections are free and fair. Electoral malpractice not only distorts the quality of representation but has implications for ...

73 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A comprehensive review of theories of crime and empirical analysis of social violence in Latin America from 1980 to 2010 is presented in this paper, showing that youth bulges, female workforce, and post-conflict states are positively associated with social violence, as measured by homicide rates.
Abstract: The study of social violence in Latin America has stood at the periphery of cross-national research despite the region being one of the most violent in the contemporary world. This article provides a comprehensive review of theories of crime and presents an empirical analysis of social violence in Latin America from 1980 to 2010. The literature often emphasizes one theoretical approach over others and existing explanations are seen as competitive rather than complementary. Yet, the empirical findings of this study support different explanations and illustrate how considering different theoretical approaches helps improve our knowledge on social violence phenomena. The results from different estimation methods reveal that youth bulges, female workforce, and post-conflict states are positively associated with social violence, as measured by homicide rates. The results also show that states’ efforts to strengthen judicial system capacity and increase school attendance can promote peace. Moreover, while drug ...

71 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors investigated the nexus between climate change and violence by focusing on Indonesia over the period 1993-2003 and found that Rice is the staple food in Indonesia and investigated the relationship between climate and violence.
Abstract: This article contributes to the literature on the nexus between climate change and violence by focusing on Indonesia over the period 1993–2003. Rice is the staple food in Indonesia and we investiga...

69 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the strategic rationale for terrorist tactics in civil war is examined and conditions that favor terrorism as a tactic in armed civil conflicts as well as the specific targets as a function.
Abstract: We examine the strategic rationale for terrorist tactics in civil war. We identify conditions that favor terrorism as a tactic in armed civil conflicts as well as the specific targets as a function...

63 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a spatially disaggregated research design and focusing on sub-Saharan Africa to assess how far violent and nonviolent outcomes in the wake of drought can be accounted for by regional differences in the provision of key infrastructures that help coping with drought and preventing violence.
Abstract: Despite growing concerns about the possible security implications of extreme precipitation shortfalls in vulnerable and politically fragile regions, the particular conditions that make armed violence more or less likely in times of drought remain poorly understood. Using a spatially disaggregated research design and focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, the present analysis assesses how far violent and nonviolent outcomes in the wake of drought can be accounted for by regional differences in the provision of key infrastructures that help coping with drought and preventing violence. The results indicate that civil conflict events in connection with drought are more likely in administrative areas with poorly developed road infrastructures. Drought-related communal violence, on the other hand, is more likely in regions where an important part of the population lacks access to an improved water source. Thus, while the provision of key infrastructures seems to moderate local conflict risks in connection with drought...

62 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In 2012, the two major street gangs in El Salvador, Mara Salvatrucha 13 and Barrio 18, struck a truce credited with reducing homicide rates by more than 50% in one year.
Abstract: In 2012, the two major street gangs in El Salvador, Mara Salvatrucha 13 and Barrio 18, struck a truce credited with reducing homicide rates by more than 50% in one year. Although the gang truce hel...

61 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider whether the fragmentation of combatants during civil war has downstream effects on the durability of peace following civil wars, making connections to the spoiling and credible commitment literatures, and hypothesize that rebel splintering hastens the recurrence of civil wars.
Abstract: We consider whether the fragmentation of combatants during civil war has downstream effects on the durability of peace following civil wars. We contend that the splintering of combatant groups, a primary manifestation of rebel group fragmentation, produces potential spoiler groups that are neither incidental nor unimportant in the process of civil war resolution. Making connections to the spoiling and credible commitment literatures, we hypothesize that rebel splintering hastens the recurrence of civil wars. Using event history modeling and propensity score matching to analyze two different civil war datasets, we examine whether the occurrence of fragmentation during a civil war influences the length of peace after the civil war. The empirical analysis of fragmentation events during civil wars since World War II offers support for the hypothesis that splintering decreases the duration of post-civil war peace. The results suggest the need to pay closer attention to the dynamics of fragmentation, and partic...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that competitive dynamics between states and self-determination movements and between rival factions within these movements are key determinants of fragmentation, and they situate their argument vis-a-vis three alternative and complementary sets of explanations based on theories emphasizing transnational dimensions, political institutions, and structural factors within ethnopolitical groups.
Abstract: Why are some ethnopolitical movements divided while others are relatively unified? A growing literature examines the consequences of internal divisions in ethnopolitical movements – and shows that it matters for a range of conflict outcomes – yet the mechanisms causing such divisions remain poorly understood. Our argument emphasizes competitive dynamics between states and self-determination movements and between rival factions within these movements as key determinants of fragmentation. Drawing from literatures on social movements, contentious politics, and civil war, we situate our argument vis-a-vis three alternative and complementary sets of explanations based on theories emphasizing transnational dimensions, political institutions, and structural factors within ethnopolitical groups. Using an original dataset, we test hypotheses explaining movement fragmentation over time and use a case study of Punjab in India to identify specific causal mechanisms and missing variables. Our findings show some suppor...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper presented a general framework for deconstructing and classifying conflict news narratives, based on a nuanced and contextual approach to analyze media representations of conflict actors and events, addressing some of the weaknesses of existing classification schemes, focusing on the dualistic approach of the peace journalism model.
Abstract: This article presents a general framework for deconstructing and classifying conflict news narratives. This framework, based on a nuanced and contextual approach to analyzing media representations of conflict actors and events, addresses some of the weaknesses of existing classification schemes, focusing in particular on the dualistic approach of the peace journalism model. Using quantitative content analysis, the proposed framework is then applied to the journalistic coverage in the Israeli media of three Middle-Eastern conflicts: the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the conflict surrounding Iran's nuclear program, and the Syrian civil war. The coverage is examined in three leading news outlets – Haaretz, Israel Hayom, and Ynet – over a six-month period. Based on hierarchical cluster analysis, the article identifies four characteristic types of narratives in the examined coverage. These include two journalistic narratives of violence: one inward-looking, ethnocentric narrative, and one outward-looking narra...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper analyzed the effect of NVR campaigns on the survival of democratic regimes and found that those democratic regimes that come into being as a result of a NVR campaign are less prone to democratic breakdown.
Abstract: Research suggests that nonviolent resistance (NVR) campaigns are more successful in deposing dictators than armed rebellions. However, ousting dictators is only the first step in the process of democratization. After deposing an autocratic regime, societies enter a transition phase where they must learn to consolidate the gains of democracy and bargain about the new rules of the democratic regime. But even if free, fair, and competitive elections are held, indicating a successful transition to democratic rule, uncertainty about its stability remains salient. In the period that follows, either democracy survives and proves to be resilient, or an autocratic backslide occurs. In this article, we analyze the effect of NVR campaigns on the survival of democratic regimes. Building on the literature on modes of transitions and nonviolent resistance, we argue that those democratic regimes that come into being as a result of a NVR campaign are less prone to democratic breakdown. The main mechanism which produces this effect is that the organizational culture of NVR campaigns spills over to the subsequent democratic regime fostering conditions favorable for democratic survival. We test the effect of NVR campaigns on democratic regime survival using survival analysis and propensity score matching. The results show that democratic regimes that experience NVR during the transition phase survive substantially longer than regimes without NVR.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article presented a general framework for deconstructing and classifying conflict news narratives, based on a nuanced and contextual approach to analyze media representations of conflict actors and events, addressing some of the weaknesses of existing classification schemes.
Abstract: This article presents a general framework for deconstructing and classifying conflict news narratives. This framework, based on a nuanced and contextual approach to analyzing media representations of conflict actors and events, addresses some of the weaknesses of existing classification schemes, focusing in particular on the dualistic approach of the peace journalism model. Using quantitative content analysis, the proposed framework is then applied to the journalistic coverage in the Israeli media of three Middle-Eastern conflicts: the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the conflict surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, and the Syrian civil war. The coverage is examined in three leading news outlets – Haaretz, Israel Hayom, and Ynet – over a six-month period. Based on hierarchical cluster analysis, the article identifies four characteristic types of narratives in the examined coverage. These include two journalistic narratives of violence: one inward-looking, ethnocentric narrative, and one outward-looking narrative focusing on outgroup actors and victims; and two political-diplomatic narratives: one interactional, and one outward-looking. In addition to highlighting different constellations of points of view and conflict measures in news stories, the identified clusters also challenge several assumptions underlying existing models, such as the postulated alignment between elite/official actors and violence frames

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work applies a novel, dynamic, network based approach to study the dependencies among the ebb and flow of daily international interactions using a newly developed, and openly available, database of events among nations.
Abstract: Previous models of international conflict have suffered two shortfalls They tend not to embody dynamic changes, focusing rather on static slices of behavior over time across a single relational dimension These models have also been empirically evaluated in ways that assumed the independence of each country, when in reality they are searching for the interdependence among all countries A number of approaches are available now for analyzing relational data such as international conflict in a network context and a number of these can even handle longitudinal relational data, but none are developed to the point of exploring how networks can coevolve over time We illustrate a solution to the limitations of existing approaches and apply this novel, dynamic, network based approach to study the dependencies among the ebb and flow of daily international interactions using a newly developed, and openly available, database of events among nations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that states and firms not only consider direct political relationships when shaping international trade, but also focus crucially on indirect alliance relationships, and they find that higher levels of trade result when states have more shared alliances and when they are in the same alliance community.
Abstract: How does the network of international political alliances influence trade flows? Previous work suggests that alliances matter in predicting trade outcomes because governments align trade policies with national security interests and firms take political relations between states into account when assessing risk. However, work to date investigates only the relationship between direct political alliances and trade, which ignores the complexity of international alliance structures. In this article, I argue that states and firms not only consider direct political relationships when shaping international trade, but also focus crucially on indirect alliance relationships. I find that higher levels of trade result when states have more shared alliances and when they are in the same alliance community. Once these indirect relationships are accounted for, the apparent association of dyadic alliances with trade is drastically reduced. Joint membership in an alliance community predicts an increase in trade that is mo...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The CHISOLS (Change in Source of Leader Support) dataset as mentioned in this paper identifies which leadership changes within countries bring to power a new leader whose primary support is the same as the previous leader.
Abstract: This article introduces the CHISOLS (Change in Source of Leader Support) dataset, which identifies which leadership changes within countries bring to power a new leader whose primary support is dra...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a theory that explains how cross-border economic ties alternately enhance or impede international cooperation, and show that interdependence can act as a substitute for, or as a deterrent to, militarized violence.
Abstract: Researchers continue to debate the impact of trade on interstate conflict. While many view trade as pacifying, others argue that dependencies increase friction and the risk of war. We provide a theory that explains how cross-border economic ties alternately enhance or impede international cooperation. Three main factors account for the heterogeneous effects of trade on conflict: interdependence, asymmetry, and multipolarity. Interdependence can act as a substitute for, or as a deterrent to, militarized violence. In the former case, interdependence actually increases more modest non-militarized conflict, while also discouraging militarized disputes. Asymmetry diminishes the conflict-inhibiting effect of trade ties, as dependency cannot simultaneously be used to coerce and to inform. Multilateral trade networks alternately moderate or enhance the bilateral effects of interdependence and asymmetry on interstate peace. Our theory and evidence reveal complex, cross-cutting consequences of economic interdepende...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper explored the determinants of low-intensity sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, which has marked the post-1998 peace agreement period, and argued that this violence is more likely and prevalent in interface areas where similarly sized rival communities are geographically in contact with each other.
Abstract: What accounts for low-intensity intergroup violence? This article explores the determinants of low-intensity sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, which has marked the post-1998 peace agreement period. Low-intensity violence comprises a variety of events from riots to attacks against other civilians as well as against homes and symbolic buildings such as churches. We argue that this violence is more likely and prevalent in interface areas where similarly sized rival communities are geographically in contact with each other. Parity and contact spur intergroup competition and threat perception, and they increase the viability of violence. We use original cross-sectional time-series violence data for the 2005–12 period at a disaggregated subnational level, the ward, and a wide variety of social and economic indicators to test our hypotheses. In particular, we assess the impact of within-ward ethnic composition, on the one hand, and the ethnic composition of neighboring wards, on the other. We find that the...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors investigated the relationship between the traditional organization of ethnic groups and ethnic civil wars in Africa after decolonization and found that excluded groups with centralized pre-colonial institutions are less likely to be involved in civil wars.
Abstract: Research on the relationship between political institutions and civil war has paid insufficient attention to the role of traditional institutions in developing countries. This study presents large-N evidence showing that traditional ethnic institutions with origins prior to Western colonization are associated with the prevalence of civil wars in Africa after independence. Matching ethnographic data on the pre-colonial political organization of African indigenous groups to contemporary data on ethnic groups in conflict, I investigate the relationship between the traditional organization of ethnic groups and ethnic civil wars in Africa after decolonization. Specifically, I argue that excluded groups with centralized traditional institutions can rely on these institutions to more credibly bargain with the state, and that this reduces their risk of conflict. Accordingly, I find that excluded groups with centralized pre-colonial institutions are less likely to be involved in civil wars.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article found a strong general correlation between religious rhetoric and violence, but past use of religious rhetoric does not increase the likelihood that an organization will participate in violence or the overall intensity of conflict.
Abstract: Why are religious conflicts more violent than non-religious conflicts? Research has argued that religion pushes partisans toward violence. However, existing research suffers from widespread problems of measurement validity and fails to confront the possibility of endogeneity in the relationship between religion and violence. This article develops a more precise measure of the relevance of religion to conflict based on the use of religious rhetoric by political organizations. With this approach in mind, this article disentangles the causal sequence linking religious rhetoric and violence using annually coded data on the rhetoric of 495 organizations worldwide from 1970 through 2012. The analysis finds a strong general correlation between religious rhetoric and violence. However, past use of religious rhetoric does not increase the likelihood that an organization will participate in violence or the overall intensity of conflict. On the contrary, previous participation in violence makes an organization more ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article showed that inequality between social classes affects civil wars through two pathways: (1) it heightens the risk of political violence by fueling distributive conflicts; and (2) it reduces structural coup-proofing, which, in turn, increases the capacity of the military to fight insurgents.
Abstract: Does class inequality increase the risk of civil war? I posit that inequality between social classes affects civil wars through two pathways: (1) it heightens the risk of political violence by fueling distributive conflicts; and (2) it reduces structural coup-proofing, which, in turn, increases the capacity of the military to fight insurgents. Combining these effects implies that the net effect of class inequality on civil war is ambiguous. Although class inequality increases the propensity for violence, in unequal countries political violence rarely takes the form of wars because such countries have strong militaries. Class inequality, however, breeds other forms of political violence. In particular, it increases the likelihood of military coups. The two effects of class inequality reinforce each other in the case of coups: inequality simultaneously stirs distributional conflicts and increases the capacity of the military to mount coups by reducing coup-proofing. Using data on 128 developing countries be...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the lack of clarity regarding the local impacts of market-based mechanisms contributes to continued unwarranted enthusiasm for marketization among policymakers and practitioners, and argue that there is a tendency to pin the hopes of fragile post-conflict states on establishing a liberalized and supposedly peace-promoting economy and a worrying absence of grounded assessments of the impacts of such policies.
Abstract: Over the past 20 years scholars have repeatedly highlighted the complex relationship between conflict, peace and economics. It is today accepted that economic factors at the global, regional, national and local levels can promote conflict in various ways and that economic factors are therefore central in establishing a sustainable post-conflict peace. However, while the scholarly literature includes much nuance regarding the precise nature of these complex relationships, practices of peacebuilding are often far less nuanced. Instead there is a tendency to pin the hopes of fragile post-conflict states on establishing a liberalized and supposedly peace-promoting economy and a worrying absence of grounded assessments of the impacts of such policies. This article argues that the resulting lack of clarity regarding the local impacts of such peacebuilding mechanisms contributes to continued unwarranted enthusiasm for marketization among policymakers and practitioners. This issue is addressed directly by explori...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This issue features new theoretical and empirical research demonstrating how properly accounting for networked interdependencies has profound implications for the understanding of the processes thought to be responsible for the conflict behavior of state and non-state actors.
Abstract: Network theory and methods are becoming increasingly used to study the causes and consequences of conflict. Network analysis allows researchers to develop a better understanding of the causal dynamics and structural geometry of the complex web of interdependencies at work in the onset, incidence, and diffusion of conflict and peace. This issue features new theoretical and empirical research demonstrating how properly accounting for networked interdependencies has profound implications for our understanding of the processes thought to be responsible for the conflict behavior of state and non-state actors. The contributors examine the variation in networks of states and transnational actors to explain outcomes related to international conflict and peace. They highlight how networked interdependencies affect conflict and cooperation in a broad range of areas at the center of international relations scholarship. It is helpful to distinguish between three uses of networks, namely: (1) as theoretical tools, (2)...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the incentives to free ride on the contributions of other countries, recognizing the incentive for free-riders to free-ride on other countries' contributions to UN peacekeeping.
Abstract: Why do countries contribute troops to UN peacekeeping? Recognizing the incentives to free ride on the contributions of other countries, existing explanations have tended to focus on the private ben...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the CRO network can transmit information and promote norms of peace that help in reducing international conflict and examine whether and how the connections among states through CRO ties can lead to reductions in international conflict.
Abstract: Networks of international nongovernmental organizations with missions concerning conflict resolution (CROs) conduct a number of innovative international programs designed to promote peace. Is this network of CROs effective? In this article, we argue that the CRO network can transmit information and promote norms of peace that help in reducing international conflict. Our theoretical argument builds on earlier work concerning international governmental organizations (IGOs) and peace and we examine whether and how the connections among states through CRO ties can lead to reductions in international conflict. We test the key empirical implication of our argument – concerning how the CRO network can foster peace – using new social network measures that focus on the actual network of citizens and elites connected internationally by CROs, rather than focusing on the size or presence of civil society within a state. We find considerable support for our central hypothesis that the network of international CROs is ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In many cases, including some of the most destructive civil conflicts and some emerging democracies, militant and ex-militant groups form political parties to participate in elections as discussed by the authors, and they are able to win elections.
Abstract: In many cases, including some of the most destructive civil conflicts and some of the newest emerging democracies, militant and ex-militant groups form political parties to participate in elections...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an empirically grounded simulation model of the dynamic coevolution of interstate military alliances, international conflict, and domestic democratization, demonstrating a statistical approach which accounts both for the complex interdependencies generated by coevolving multiplex networks of interstate ties and for their reciprocal influence on domestic political regimes.
Abstract: While much previous research has examined the relationship between interstate military alliances and the structure of domestic regimes, existing findings point in contradictory directions. Some have argued that democracies attract each other as alliance partners, and thereby generate international peace as a consequence of their domestic regime type, while others have argued that the causal relationship is reversed, and that international pacification creates the necessary space for international alliances and domestic democratization. To disentangle this difficult empirical relationship, this article presents an empirically grounded simulation model of the dynamic coevolution of interstate military alliances, international conflict, and domestic democratization, demonstrating a statistical approach which accounts both for the complex interdependencies generated by coevolving multiplex networks of interstate ties and for their reciprocal influence on the coevolution of domestic political regimes, over the...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper explored the local effects of internal armed conflict on postwar violent crime in Northern Ireland and argued that exposure to wartime violence will lead to higher levels of violent crime, and that violent crime will increase exposure to war violence.
Abstract: This study explores the local effects of internal armed conflict on postwar violent crime in Northern Ireland. It argues that exposure to wartime violence will lead to higher levels of violent crim ...