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Showing papers in "Journal of Population Research in 2015"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the association between personality and childbearing motivation, with a focus on voluntary childlessness, and found that personality plays a considerable role in influencing individuals towards, or away from, parenthood.
Abstract: This study examined the association between personality and childbearing motivation, with a focus on voluntary childlessness. 780 adults completed an online survey assessing the Big Five personality traits, the trait of Independence, desire for parenthood, motivations for choosing childlessness and various other socio-demographic characteristics. Compared to parents or those desiring children, childfree respondents scored significantly higher in Independence and significantly lower in Agreeableness and Extraversion. They were also less religious and more politically liberal. For non-parents, level of desire for parenthood was negatively correlated with Independence and positively correlated with Agreeableness and religiosity. The ideal number of children desired was positively correlated with Agreeableness and religiosity. Childfree respondents who decided early in life not to have children (‘early articulators’) were significantly higher in Independence and Openness to Experience than those who decided later in life. Motivations for childlessness loaded onto five factors, four of which correlated significantly with personality traits. The results suggest that personality plays a considerable role in influencing individuals towards, or away from, parenthood.

32 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a Granger-causality analysis for the time-series of real wheat prices, birth and death rates with the help of VARs was conducted to identify positive and preventive checks.
Abstract: In this paper, we study Malthusian pressures in a frontier economy. Using the empirical data on real prices and demographic variables from 1688 to 1860 for Quebec and Montreal, we test for the existence of Malthusian pressures. Bearing in mind the particularities of frontier economies and the development of the Canadian economy, we conduct a Granger-causality analysis for the time-series of real wheat prices, birth and death rates with the help of VARs in order to identify positive and preventive checks. Using the Bai–Perron test we find a structural break in 1767 and divide the sample into pre- and post-conquest periods. We find that the positive checks were operating in the years prior to the conquest but that they faded during the nineteenth century. It follows that an increase in the wheat prices Granger-causes an increase in death rates in the pre-conquest period. Additional tests and a robustness check of the detrending methods are performed.

27 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine census practices in all countries in the world over the last three decennial census rounds spanning the period 1985-2014 and find that the uptake of alternative approaches has been most pronounced in Europe where there is a history of maintaining population registers and broader public acceptance of using personal data for statistical purposes.
Abstract: Studies examining the use of alternative census models in specific countries or regions suggest that the traditional full enumeration census may be heading toward its ‘twilight.’ However the lack of a comparative and longitudinal overview makes it difficult to evaluate whether in fact the population census is in a state of global decline. As National Statistics Offices worldwide explore options for future census transformation, a more systematic study is both timely and methodologically important. We empirically examine census practices in all countries in the world (n = 241) over the last three decennial census rounds spanning the period 1985–2014. We find that the uptake of alternative approaches has been most pronounced in Europe where there is a history of maintaining population registers and broader public acceptance of using personal data for statistical purposes. Elsewhere in the world the move towards alternative census methodologies has been very limited. The stringent preconditions necessary to make a successful transition towards a register-based census, coupled with the options offered by e-census and other technologies, suggest the full enumeration census is likely to endure for the foreseeable future, although in a more modernized form.

15 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined explanations for the regional fertility variations, particularly the persistently high fertility rates observed in the northern regions, paying particular attention to the contribution of socioeconomic, cultural and religious factors, and fertility attitudes among women in explaining this phenomenon.
Abstract: Ghana’s current population is about 24.2 million, and given the current population growth rate of 2.4 %, Ghana’s population is expected to double in about 29 years. Although fertility rates in Ghana have declined from 6.4 to 4 children per woman between 1988 and 2008, this transition has not been homogenous across all regions of Ghana. Fertility rates remain higher in the northern regions of the country, compared to the southern regions. This paper examines explanations for the regional fertility variations—particularly the persistently high fertility rates observed in the northern regions—paying particular attention to the contribution of socioeconomic, cultural and religious factors, and fertility attitudes among women in explaining this phenomenon. In order to capture the most recent fertility variations in the country, the paper uses the most recent round (2008) of the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, and employs a Poisson multivariate estimation technique. Results indicate that regional differences in fertility are largely explained by socioeconomic factors such as urbanization, child mortality, education and household wealth. Cultural and religious factors also explain some of the observed variation between the northern region and the southern regions. The inclusion of the duration of post-partum amenorrhea and other proximate determinants in the model specifications significantly explains residual differences in fertility outcomes, particularly among the three northern regions. Findings therefore indicate a need for more region-specific policy targeting in the effort to reduce high fertility rates and ease the growth in population.

14 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the relationship between the wealth of older adults and the receipt of in-kind and monetary transfers from non-resident adult children and found that the relationship was positive and statistically significant.
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between the wealth of older parents and the receipt of in-kind and monetary transfers from non-resident adult children. Based on a nationally representative sample from the 2007 and 2011 Surveys of Older Persons in Thailand (N = 46,216), a sample-selected bivariate ordered probit model is employed. Different measures of wealth are explored, including home ownership, income and savings. The results show that the relationships between each measure of wealth and the receipt of in-kind as well as monetary transfers are positive and statistically significant. Nonlinearities are observed with regard to income but not home ownership and savings. The fact that wealthier parents receive larger transfers implies that, to promote old-age financial security, the government should not only devise a strategy to incentivise adult children to make larger upstream transfers, but also target and provide additional support for financially vulnerable older adults.

11 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors reviewed the way each dimension has shaped our understanding of demographic processes, and explored the distinctive contribution to be derived from closer linkages between population science and spatial analysis, and illustrated with examples drawn from both the global and Australian contexts.
Abstract: Time, in various guises, is integral to the conceptual and methodological apparatus of demography but the significance of space has been less well articulated. I review the way each dimension has shaped our understanding of demographic processes, and explore the distinctive contribution to be derived from closer linkages between population science and spatial analysis. Methods and models are needed that link individual with aggregate analyses, bridge geographic scales, and couple space and time. These have the potential to enhance theory, inform policy, and address contemporary knowledge deficits, but they call for novel approaches to data collection and also have implications for demographic training. The case is illustrated with examples drawn from both the global and Australian contexts.

11 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article used the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset to detect identification change between 2006 and 2011 and include this information in a multistate population projection model, which was applied to Australia, New South Wales and the Northern Territory over the period 2011-2061.
Abstract: Since the 1971 Census, the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population has grown faster than predicted by births, deaths and migration. An important and likely source of this unexplained growth is identification change, where a person changes how they identify or are identified by the household between one census and the next. In this paper, we use the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset to detect identification change between 2006 and 2011 and include this information in a multistate population projection model. The projection model is applied to Australia, New South Wales and the Northern Territory over the period 2011–2061. The results indicate that identification change, particularly in the youngest age groups (0–9 years), had a positive impact on Indigenous population growth between 2006 and 2011. The projected Indigenous population initially grows faster than otherwise due to a net increase in people identifying as Indigenous, but slows as it interacts with the slow-growing non-Indigenous population. The results also suggest that the way in which identification change is modelled substantially affects projected trajectories, particularly in areas where identification change is substantial. While demographic modelling would benefit from further multidisciplinary research on the drivers and populations at risk of Indigenous status change, this study underscores the importance of incorporating identification change to improve projections of the Indigenous population in Australia.

10 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast error measure, which can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility.
Abstract: The Box–Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have been few studies focusing on the optimal selection of Box–Cox transformation parameters in demographic forecasting. A simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box–Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast error measure. Illustrated by Australian age-specific fertility, the out-of-sample accuracy of a forecasting method can be improved with the selected Box–Cox transformation parameter. Furthermore, the log transformation is not adequate for modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. The Box–Cox transformation parameter should be embedded in statistical analysis of age-specific demographic data, in order to fully capture forecast uncertainties.

8 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors investigated the pattern of cyclical mortality in Australia, that is, whether increases or decreases in mortality rates are associated with changes in the economy, and found that there is a significant counter-cyclical pattern of mortality.
Abstract: In many countries it has been established that short-run cyclical patterns in mortality are associated with economic fluctuations This study aims to investigate the pattern of cyclical mortality in Australia, that is, whether increases or decreases in mortality rates are associated with changes in the economy Employing logistic fixed-effects models, we show that there is a significant counter-cyclical pattern of mortality (mortality increases during economic contractions) in the general Australian population, over the period 1985–2008 This is an important finding which suggests that steps taken to stimulate the economy during downturns could, apart from other benefits, help reduce the associated increase in mortality Further analysis by economic growth cycles indicates that the observed counter-cyclical pattern of mortality is significant during phases of expansion but not during contractionary phases

7 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The effects of emigration on the fertility transition seem to be independent of periodic fluctuations in population flows and their associated economic benefits.
Abstract: Our knowledge of the interactions between international migration and fertility in sending countries is biased towards family members left behind, who constitute a minority and decreasing share of populations. We assess the potential for emigrants’ social diffusion of low fertility into Albania and investigate how family behaviours are affected by indirect exposure to migration within the sending society, using data from multiple survey rounds. Effects arising from direct exposure within the family had a limited importance. Marriages were postponed and marital fertility was reduced because of the transformation of the larger social context, as indicated by the importance of community migrant networks and by women’s increased aspirations, which are induced by the perception of the prospects and benefits of migration in the society at large. The effects of emigration on the fertility transition seem therefore to be independent of periodic fluctuations in population flows and their associated economic benefits.

6 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate the centenarian populations of Australia's states from 1981 to 2012 and quantify the extent to which increases were driven by changes in births, survival and net migration.
Abstract: The aim of this study was to estimate the centenarian populations of Australia’s states from 1981 to 2012 and quantify the extent to which increases were driven by changes in births, survival and net migration. Centenarian numbers and cohort survival histories were estimated from death counts using the extinct cohort and survivor ratio methods. A decomposition method was applied to determine the relative contributions of births, cohort survival and net migration to population growth. Centenarian populations in all Australia’s states increased hugely over the three decades to 2012, driven mainly by improvements in survival from age 85 to 100. Survival improvement at younger ages also contributed to higher centenarian numbers, but not to the same extent as at the very high ages. The later arrival of the gold rush in Western Australia resulted in significant increases in births and decreases in net migration between the cohorts considered. Continued increases in births and survival improvement mean that centenarian numbers are likely to continue increasing rapidly in coming decades.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In 2011, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) introduced a new statistical geography for Australia and then prepared a time series of estimated resident populations (ERPs) by age and sex at the local scale (termed SA2 areas) back to 2001 on the new boundaries as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: In 2011 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) introduced a radical new statistical geography for Australia. It then prepared a time series of Estimated Resident Populations (ERPs) by age and sex at the local scale (termed SA2 areas) back to 2001 on the new boundaries. However, a longer time series would be valuable to researchers. The aim of the work reported here was to extend the SA2 area ERPs back to 1986. A combination of small area census counts, official ERPs, look-up tables linking different statistical geographies, one-dimensional scaling, and iterative proportional fitting were employed to produce population estimates for SA2 areas of the new statistical geography. Population estimates for census years 1986, 1991 and 1996 by sex and 5 year age group were produced for SA2 areas. In combination with the official ABS ERPs for 2001, 2006 and 2011, these constitute a data set of spatially-consistent local area population estimates covering a 25 year period. The data are available in an Excel workbook accompanying this paper.

Journal ArticleDOI
Wilma Terblanche1
TL;DR: This article presented alternative projections of Australia's very elderly population at a state and national level based on methods found to be simple and reliable, assuming constant geometric rates of decline and input into a cohort-component population projection model.
Abstract: Growing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have significant implications for income support, aged care and health care and accurate projections are essential for proper planning and budgeting. Unfortunately, retrospective assessments of the ABS’ population projections revealed large errors in very elderly projections, largely due to inaccurate mortality rate forecasts. Erroneous official population estimates and death rates for the high ages also contributed to projection errors. This paper presents alternative projections of Australia’s very elderly population at a state and national level based on methods found to be simple and reliable. Adult death rates by age and sex were extrapolated assuming constant geometric rates of decline and input into a cohort-component population projection model. Australia’s very elderly population is expected to grow rapidly over the next 30 years, from 430,000 in 2012 to almost 1.5 million in 2042. As a percentage of the total population, the very elderly is expected to increase from 1.9 % in 2012 to 4.2 % in 2042. Centenarians are expected to increase from almost 3500 to over 15,000. South Australia’s very elderly population is projected to grow the least and Western Australia’s the most. Male numbers are expected to grow faster than females, resulting in increasing sex ratios. Projected very elderly numbers in 2042 are 13 % higher than official projections. ABS projections of centenarians are, however, 55 % higher. The methods used in this study are simple and have been shown to produce reliable projections. The projections presented here will facilitate effective planning for, and funding of the income and service needs of Australia’s very elderly.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the published results of successive Iranian censuses (1966-2011) and the 2% micro-data from the 2011 census to examine the trends and patterns of solo living in Iran.
Abstract: This paper uses the published results of successive Iranian censuses (1966–2011) and the 2 % micro-data from the 2011 census to examine the trends and patterns of solo living in Iran. The results show a recent rise in solo living in both rural and urban areas. Furthermore, a convergence in the prevalence of solo living is observed in both areas since the mid-1980s, which has removed their initial differences by the end of the period of study. Solo living is most prevalent among the elderly and to a lesser extent among young men. The fact that the age composition of sole persons has been relatively stable over time but their gender composition has been transformed to a female-dominant pattern provides evidence for both continuity and change in solo living in Iran. The results of multivariate analyses suggest that there are gender norms about living arrangements in Iran, which vary by age.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a methodological approach to investigate population dynamics in a system dynamics model configurable to initialise in dynamic equilibrium or disequilibrium, and then use the model to investigate how the current measured population compares to a population of the same size in equilibrium, and how a dependency ratio will change over time under different scenarios.
Abstract: Understanding population dynamics is crucial to understanding current and future health care needs and designing systems to meet those needs. In this paper, we provide a methodological approach to investigate population dynamics in a system dynamics model configurable to initialise in dynamic equilibrium or disequilibrium. We then use the model to investigate how the current measured population compares to a population of the same size in equilibrium, and how a dependency ratio will change over time under different scenarios. We apply our approach to Singapore, which, like many other countries, has a rapidly increasing proportion of elderly in the population.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Bosnia and Herzegovina is experiencing a sharp decline in the proportion of younger people and an increase of the elderly as the total fertility rate is falling more rapidly than are mortality rates as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Population ageing is the most prominent demographic trend in Europe. It is driven in part by the widespread transition from high fertility to low fertility, which is most pronounced in the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe. One of these, Bosnia and Herzegovina, is experiencing a sharp decline in the proportion of younger people and an increase of the elderly as the total fertility rate is falling more rapidly than are mortality rates. This ageing, with a marked decline in fertility, has been accompanied by emigration of the working-age population and reproductive-age adults plus ongoing problems in the aftermath of the civil war that ended in 1995. The analysis presented here uses statistical data from Bosnia’s last two population censuses, taken prior to the war, and more recent estimates from official sources. Additional material has been sourced via fieldwork that has included interviews with key informants. Recent demographic trends not only reflect contemporary socio-economic adjustments, but also past demographic characteristics, the war in the early 1990s and other major events associated with post-war political and economic instability.