Showing papers in "Journal of Quantitative Criminology in 1993"

Low self-control and imprudent behavior

Abstract: Gottfredson and Hirschi'sA General Theory of Crime contends that individual differences in involvement in criminal and analogous behavior are due largely to individual differences in the personality trait they call low self-control. Among the various behaviors considered analogous to crime are imprudent behaviors such as smoking, drinking, and gambling. This research explores the generality of Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory by examining the link between low self-control and these imprudent behaviors. The results are mixed. In support of the theory, the data reveal a modest but significant effect of a scale designed to capture the various components of low self-control on an index of imprudent behavior. A more detailed analysis, however, reveals that some of the components of low self-control, specifically those probably linked to low intelligence, detract from the scale's predictive power. In fact, one of the components, risk-seeking, is more predictive than the more inclusive scale. Furthermore, one of the imprudent acts, smoking, appears to be unaffected by low self-control. These contradictory findings suggest the need for theoretical refinements.

Gender differences in gang participation, delinquency, and substance use

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to respond to gaps in our knowledge about patterns of female gang participation and its causes and consequences. Data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, a panel study that overrepresents adolescents at high risk for delinquency, are used to compare gang participation and delinquent involvement of female and male adolescents. We then examine the role of theoretical variables associated with both female and male gang membership. The results lead us to conclude that, for females as well as males, involvement in gangs is associated with substantially increased levels of delinquency and substance use. There is also some similarity in the factors associated with gang membership for both sexes, although lack of school success emerges as a factor of particular salience for female adolescents. The results suggest that theory and intervention need to address the phenomenon of female gang membership as an important component of urban youth problems.

The impact of gun control and gun ownership levels on violence rates

Abstract: What effects do gun control restrictions and gun prevalence have on rates of violence and crime? Data were gathered for all 170 U.S. cities with a 1980 population of at least 100,000. The cities were coded for the presence of 19 major categories of firearms restriction, including both state- and city-level restrictions. Multiple indirect indicators of gun prevalence levels were measured and models of city violence rates were estimated using two-stage least-squares methods. The models covered all major categories of intentional violence and crime which frequently involve guns: homicide, suicide, fatal gun accidents, robbery, and aggravated assaults, as well as rape. Findings indicate that (1) gun prevalence levels generally have no net positive effect on total violence rates, (2) homicide, gun assault, and rape rates increase gun prevalence, (3) gun control restrictions have no net effect on gun prevalence levels, and (4) most gun control restrictions generally have no net effect on violence rates. There were, however, some possible exceptions to this last conclusion—of 108 assessments of effects of different gun laws on different types of violence, 7 indicated good support, and another 11 partial support, for the hypothesis of gun control efficacy.

National trends in female arrests, 1960–1990: Assessment and recommendations for research

Abstract: Trends in female criminality from 1960 to 1990 are examined. The main focus is UCR arrest statistics but other sources of evidence are also used. Major findings include the following: (1) relative to males, the profile of the female offender has not changed; and (2) the principal change in the female percentage of arrests involves the overall rise in property crime, especially minor thefts and frauds. The effects of broad-based legal and societal trends on female criminality are discussed and an agenda for research on the issue of female crime trends is proposed.

Fear of victimization and health

Abstract: Fear of victimization may have consequences for subjective well-being. I develop and test a model linking fear of victimization to subjective health. I hypothesize that two processes link fear to subjective health-psychological and behavioral. Specifically, I hypothesize that fear of victimization increases psychological distress, and fear decreases outdoor physical activity, especially walking. High levels of psychological distress and low levels of walking, in turn, are associated with poor self-reported health. I find empirical support for the hypothesized processes in a representative national sample of 2031 adults aged 18 to 90 interviewed by telephone in 1990. The negative association between fear and health is explained largely by psychological distress and walking. However, a significant direct effect remains. I conclude with suggestions for future research linking crime and health, focusing on the need for collecting information on community disorganization. Community context is likely the ultimate exogenous variable-the one that sets in motion the destructive cycle of fear, distress, inactivity, and poor health described here.

Victim Resistance and Offender Weapon Effects in Robbery

Abstract: What happens when victims resist robbers? Logistic regression analysis of over 4500 sample robbery incidents reported in the 1979–1985 National Crime Surveys reveals the following about various forms of victim resistance. Self-protection (SP) of any kind apparently reduces the probability of the robbery being completed, i.e., the robber getting away with the victim's property. Armed resistance is more effective than unarmed resistance, and resistance with a gun, though relatively rare, is the most effective victim response of all. Resistance with a gun also appears to reduce the likelihood of the victim being injured, while two types of resistance appear to increase it: (1) unarmed physical force against the robber and (2) trying to get help, attract attention, or scare the robber away. The robber's possession of a gun appears to inhibit victim resistance, which can sometimes provoke a robber to attack; robber gun possession thereby reduces the probability of victim injury. However, even controlling for victim resistance, robber gun possession, is associated with a lower rate of injury to the victim. Finally, robbers with handguns are much more likely to complete their robberies, and those with knives and other weapons are somewhat more likely to do so, compared to unarmed robbers.

The Consequences of Respondent Attrition in Panel Studies: A Simulation Based on the Rochester Youth Development Study

Abstract: Subject attrition is a potentially serious threat to the validity of inferences drawn from panel studies of delinquency and drug use. Prior assessments of this issue produce somewhat conflicting results, with some finding that respondents who leave the panel have higher rates of delinquency and drug use than those who remain, while other studies report little or no differential attrition. Despite these findings, there has been virtually no examination of the extent to which respondent attrition can bias substantive findings in panel studies of delinquency and drug use. The present article addresses this issue by simulating higher levels of attrition in an ongoing panel study that has a low rate of attrition and little differential attrition. It finds that failure to include more elusive respondents (those who are more mobile) would bias estimates of prevalence and frequency of delinquency and drug use as well as results from basic regression analyses. Failure to include less cooperative respondents (those who require more contacts) produces similar, but somewhat smaller, differences. The methodological implications of the results are discussed.

Rape Law Reform and the Effect of Victim Characteristics on Case Processing

Abstract: Rape law reforms enacted during the past 20 years were designed to shift the focus of a rape case from the victim to the offender. Reformers and criminal justice officials speculated that changes in the rules of evidence and enactment of rape shield laws would result in less suspicion of the claims of rape victims and would make it less likely that the character, reputation, and behavior of the victim would affect decision making about the case. In this paper we examine the impact of rape law reform on the factors affecting the outcome of sexual assault cases bound over for trial in Detroit. We find little support for our hypothesis that the effect of victim characteristics on case processing decisions declined in the postreform period. Most of the victim characteristics did not have the expected effects on the likelihood of case dismissal, charge reduction, conviction, or incarceration. We did, on the other hand, find that the proportion of cases involving evidence of risk-taking behavior on the part of the victim or questions about the victim's credibility increased in the postreform period.

Self-reported crime rates of women prisoners

Abstract: This paper presents findings from the first study of female prisoners' self-reports of criminal activity. Using the criminal career paradigm to frame the analysis, self-reported estimates of crime participation and frequency rates were examined for eight felony crimes. Important similarities between women and men were found in overall patterns of crime. Specifically, a small proportion ofboth women and men described committing a large portion of the total crimes reported. These data also suggest that women and men are similar in violent crime participation — a finding that varies from the current literature. Once active in a crime type, women and men committed assault, theft, and forgery at significantly different rates; no gender differences were found in the annualized frequency rates of burglary, robbery, motor vehicle theft, fraud, and drug dealing. However, although statistical differences were not found in the overall frequency of drug dealing, specific patterns of drug dealing reflected considerable gender variation, with a larger proportion of the female sample committing very frequent (daily) drug dealing activity. The findings reflect the value of the criminal career paradigm for the study of gender differences. Future research should include largescale quantitative designs that allow detailed analyses of correlates of the distinct criminal career dimensions.

Guns, Southernness, and gun control

Abstract: Southerners have been found to have higher levels of gun ownership than persons who reside elsewhere. This may be due to cultural factors peculiar to the Southern region. If so, this would have interesting implications for gun control initiatives. Although the differential in gun ownership has been linked to varying support or opposition to gun control, the relationship between this variable and specific types of gun control has not been examined. With this in mind, we investigate how specific types of gun ownership interact with Southernness, controlling for the effects of other variables, to determine preferences for three different types of gun control. We use 1975 data collected by DMI on a stratified random sample of 1538 noninstitutionalized adults in the United States. An analysis of several logistic regression equations indicates that a cultural component, related to Southernness, affects attitudes toward gun control. Southerners, in general, were the most opposed to permits and handgun bans. Southern shotgun owners, in particular, were found to be the most opposed to gun registration. These findings point to the need to consider region, culture, and gun type when addressing the issue of gun control.

Social Learning and Adolescent Deviance Abstention: Toward Understanding the Reasons for Initiating, Quitting, and Avoiding Drugs

Abstract: Tests of theories that attempt to explain why individuals currently use drugs are widespread; however, the theoretical examinations of abstention from drugs and the cessation of their use are rare For its part, social learning theory has been supported consistently in its delineation of the process by which substance use is learned We propose that cessation and abstention are also learned behavior Using logistic regression analysis, we examine the ability of social learning variables to distinguish among abstainers, current users, and former users of illicit drugs within a sample of 1688 middle- and high-school students in two widely separated nonurban communities Results indicate that social learning variables clearly distinguish abstainers from current users but are less able to distinguish former users and current users or former users from abstainers The theoretical, research, and policy implications of these findings are examined in detail

The interaction of age with the correlates and causes of crime

Abstract: We use data from a survey covering ages 15–94 to test the Hirschi/Gottfredson hypothesis that the correlates and causes of crime do not interact with age. These data reveal some nonchance interaction between age and demographic and theoretical predictors of criminal behavior that is localized in specific age categories and around particular variables and/or offenses. Overall, however, such interaction does not appear to be substantial, nor does it seem to have important consequences for generalizing from age restricted samples, particularly where generalization is of the most common type-from youth samples to adults. Therefore, despite some results contrary to a strict assertion that the causes and correlates of crime are the same for all ages, our findings support the thrust of the Hirschi/Gottfredson interaction hypothesis.

Offense seriousness scaling: An alternative to scenario methods

Abstract: The use of crime scenarios in sample surveys is the principal method for assessing public valuations of crime seriousness. The adequacy of this method is heavily dependent upon the a priori assumptions of the researchers constructing these scenarios. If crucial attributes of crime incidents are omitted from these descriptions of a crime, then resulting seriousness scores and weights will be in error. This paper proposes an alternative method of assessing crime seriousness—the Hedonic Price Index approach—that is not as dependent upon the prior assumptions of those building scenarios. This approach can be used as a complement to scenario methods to further our understanding of the evaluation of crime seriousness.

Tax compliance: An investigation using individual taxpayer compliance measurement program (TCMP) data

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the tax compliance behavior of U.S. taxpayers by using a 1979 data set that combines information from a random sample of individual tax returns, each of which has been thoroughly audited, IRS administrative records, and sociodemographic data from the Census. We find evidence that both audits and tax code provisions affect compliance. However, the effects are significant for only low-and high-income groups. Interestingly, work on the underground economy also suggests that it is these two groups that are least compliant. Our results for audits suggest that the “ripple” or general deterrent effect of audits may be substantially larger than the direct revenue yield of audits for high-income taxpayers. Our results for allowable subtractions from income imply that the 1986 Tax Reform Act changes that lowered allowable subtractions may have procompliance effects.

Minimizing the cost of dispatch delays by holding patrol cars in reserve

Abstract: At many police departments high-priority callers sometimes incur undue delays that could be avoided by the use of a differential response strategy that takes full account of the different “costs” of delay for different priority calls. In this article we examine such a strategy, in which lower-priority callers may not be served immediately, even though some response units are available. Arriving priorityi callers are queued whenever the number of busy patrol units equals or exceeds the cutoff number for that priority. Our purpose is (1) to find a practical way of choosing the set of cutoff numbers that will minimize the expected total cost of delays for the entire system and (2) to use that method to investigate how the optimal set of cutoffs changes in response to changes in several important variables, including the relative costs of delay for different priorities, the overall workload, and the relative frequencies of different priority calls.

Partial order scalogram analysis with base coordinates (POSAC): Its application to crime patterns in all the states in the United States

Abstract: In this paper, a new nonmetric method called POSAC is presented and illustrated through an analysis of the crime patterns of all the states in the United States. POSAC is a graphical technique for the display of multivariate data in a two-dimensional space. It maps the rows (e.g., states) of a matrix in a way that maximizes the preservation of theirpartial order, with similar states located in close proximity on the map. POSAC is based on the partial order among observations rather than their actual magnitude. POSAC seems to bear the same relationship to the principal-component analysis (PCA) as that borne by the median to the arithmetic mean. As a matter of fact, POSAC is a form of ordinal factor analysis. Its advantage over PCA is its robustness to the data. The technique enables observations and variables to be studied simultaneously. Seven index crime categories are analyzed. In order to demonstrate the utility of POSAC in detecting changes in crime patterns over time, we included in our analysis three selected years: 1944, 1965, and 1987. The results for the year 1987 are compared to those obtained by PCA.