Showing papers in "Journal of Quantitative Criminology in 1994"

Do individual factors and neighborhood context explain ethnic differences in juvenile delinquency

Abstract: Individually measured factors and neighborhood context were related to juvenile delinquency in a community sample of 506 urban, public-school boys. Neighborhood context was measured with an objective, census-based score that classified neighborhoods as underclass or not underclass. When African American youths and white youths were compared without regard to neighborhood context, African American youths were more frequently and more seriously delinquent than white youths. When African American youths didnot live in underclass neighborhoods, their delinquent behavior was similar to that of the white youths. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses showed that boys' hyperactivity and parental supervision were the strongest correlates of delinquency. Single-parent status and poverty/welfare use were not related to delinquent behavior. Once individually measured factors were accounted for, residence in underclass neighborhoods was significantly related to delinquent behavior while ethnicity was not. This study points to the importance of including the neighborhood context when addressing the social problems of African American youths.

Prison population growth and crime reduction

Abstract: The impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees. We outline the problems with this approach, attempt to reanalyze the widely divergent lambdas derived in past research, and make adjustments necessary to use lambdas for estimating the incapacitation impact. The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner. We argue that regression analysis can provide a better estimate of the impact of prison population growth. Applying the Granger test to pooled state data over 19 years, we found that prison population growth leads to lower crime rates but that crime rate changes have little or no short-term impact on prison population growth. Next we regressed crime rates on prison population and conclude that, on average, at least 17 index crimes are averted per additional prisoner. The impact is limited mainly to property crime.

Linking self- and social control with deviance: Illuminating the structure underlying a general theory of crime and its relation to deviant activity

Abstract: The present paper operationalizes and empirically tests the most recent theoretical speculations of Hirschi and Gottfredson regarding an individual level characteristic of self-control and its relation to earlier specifications of control theory as well as the literature on personality. Linkages are drawn between their broad delineation of self-control and personal disorders of hyperactivity, impulsivity, attention deficits, and minor conduct problems. Psychologists disagree about whether such disorders represent single or multiple traits and whether both behavioral and cognitive measures can appropriately depict personality characteristics. Employing structural equation techniques, support for several propositions derived from Gottfredson and Hirschi's thesis is found: Self-control subsumes several personality disorders and is significantly comprised by early behavioral indicators of aggression and fighting, is inversely related to other elements of the social bond, is moderately stable over a short period of time, and significantly predicts criminal convictions. However, questions remain regarding the ubiquity of self-control, the magnitude and meaning of stability, and the power of this perspective to explain all forms of self-reported delinquency.

Reconsidering strain theory: Operationalization, rival theories, and adult criminality

Abstract: Recently a revisionist view of strain theory's empirical adequacy has emerged which holds that the theory's explanatory power depends on how it is operationalized. With an adult community sample, we empirically assess three separate measures of strain to explain self-reported crime: the gap between aspirations and expectations, blocked opportunities, and relative deprivation. The findings reveal that the aspirations-expectations measure is not related to criminal involvement, while perceived blocked opportunities and feelings of relative deprivation significantly affect adult offending. These relationships, however, fail to persist after measures from competing theories (i.e., low self-control, differential association, and social bond) are introduced as controls in the regression equations. Thus, measures from rival theories offer a more fruitful approach to explaining self-reported adult offending.

A comparison of weighted and unweighted analyses in the national Crime Victimization Survey

Abstract: The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data tapes include several variables of weights that reflect how many households or persons are represented by a given data record. While these sampling weights are crucial for estimating overall victimization rates, they do not have as much of an effect on methodological models, because weights in the NCVS are used primarily in ratio estimation adjustments and to compensate for a relatively low nonresponse rate. The general use of weights is discussed, and several examples are given that indicate that although there may be some differences in the coefficients, the basic conclusions drawn from the models are the same with or without weights. It is recommended that weighted analyses in the NCVS be used primarily as a tool in model development.

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with reporting violent crimes to the police

Abstract: The use of generalized estimating equations and time-series methods for fitting longitudinal models in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is discussed, with reference to the relation between the reporting of a violent crime to the police and previous victimizations. Two longitudinal models are fit to NCVS data to predict the likelihood of reporting a violent crime to the police based on characteristics of the victim and the incident and based on previous victimization experiences. In both models, it is found that higher reporting rates are associated with positive results accruing from reporting previous victimization to the police.

Rap Sheets in Criminological Research: Considerations and Caveats

Abstract: The types of errors found in official criminal history records are not completely understood by many researchers, and this lack of understanding can lead to serious misinterpretations. Analyses of a recently developed database of New Orleans offenders indicate that the use of rap sheets with a limited catchment area can lead to gross distortions of the effects of variables related to geographic mobility, such as race and age. Evidence from a number of sources indicates that false-negative error is a serious problem, particularly in fingerprint-based record systems. In addition, arrest records lend themselves to a variety of common misinterpretations by researchers in the coding process, including failing to identify multievent arrests, misclassifying arrests, and treating arrest or custody process events as crimes indicating criminal activity of the individual while free. Solutions to some of these problems are suggested.

Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics, type of offense, and two types of intervention

Abstract: The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.

Specialization in juvenile careers: Markov results for a California cohort

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the arrest careers through September 1985 of a highly active cohort of youth paroled by the California Youth Authority in the early 1980s. Our results are in some ways similar to and in other ways different from those reported by other researchers. We find that while adjacent transition matrices appear constant, the same cannot be said for nonadjacent matrices. We reject the first-order Markov hypothesis and find support for specialization in the statistical significance of the forward specialization coefficients. Our results also suggest that, in addition to transitions to the same type of offense, an oscillating pattern of offending is common for our subjects. We also compare the transition matrices of three racial/ethnic and four regional groups. These results indicate differences in the patterns of offending by the racial/ethnic groups in our sample and similar offense-transition behavior in three of the four regions that differs significantly from that of the fourth region.

IQ and Delinquency: A Test of Two Competing Explanations

Abstract: In the past, sociologists either dismissed or ignored the well-established empirical relationship between IQ and juvenile delinquency. More recently, however, they have come to accept the IQ/JD connection but now debate the most valid explanation for it. Some have advanced what we characterized as a “school performance” model, while others adhere to what may be called a “school reaction” model. The major bone of contention between the competing models is over the school variables thought to mediate the IQ/JD relationship. In this study, we specified the most dominant versions of the competing models as well as a model integrating the concepts of each. Using three waves of data from the Youth in Transition project, we first estimated parameters for each of the competing models and then parameters for the integrated model. Considered independently, each model was supported by the data. However, when each of the separate models was forced to take into account the explanatory contribution of its competitor, only the school performance model was supported. Implications of the findings for schooling and delinquency are discussed.

Temporal regularities in homicide: Cycles, seasons, and autoregression

Abstract: It has long been assumed that there exists a relationship between crime (including homicide) and season. After discussing three analytic approaches to this problem (looking for seasonality, a general autoregressive process, and cycles), we review the literature and show that confusing and conflicting findings have been reported about the temporal regularities of homicide. Employing monthly data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (1976–1989), we find evidence for seasonality, autoregression, and cyclicality of homicide. Our modeling approaches clarify the previous conflicting research; implications for theory and future research are discussed.

Interaction of criminological research and public policy

Abstract: We examine here some of the interactions of research and policy over the past several decades. The “rehabilitation period” was effectively terminated by nulleffect evaluations of various rehabilitation techniques. The “just deserts-utilitarian period” was fed by research estimates of the deterrent and incapacitative effects of criminal justice activities. The more recent “overt politicization period” saw the earlier attempt to bring rational and theory-based perspectives to policy development replaced by much stronger emphasis on political concerns. We explore possible ways to reestablish the research-policy connections.

Theoretical and empirical specification of a model of informal labeling

Abstract: Recently criminologists have begun to explore the importance of disaggregating frequency measures of self-reported delinquency into the separate decisions of initiation and continuation. Given that labeling makes predictions concerning continuation, the purpose of this paper is twofold. The first is to test the ability of an informal labeling model to predict the decision to continue delinquent behavior once it is initiated. The second purpose is to address the broader question of whether disaggregation matters. The findings support the idea that the informal labeling model is predictive of the decision to continue delinquent behavior. The findings also suggest that, at least for a measure of general delinquency, there are some differences to be found by choosing the appropriate sample and form of the dependent variable.

The effects of marital status and social isolation on adult male homicides in the United States: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study

Abstract: With data from the 1979–1985 Longitudinal Mortality Study, we examine the effects of marital status and social isolation on adult male homicide (ICD-9 Codes E960-E978). Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to a 1979–1981 population cohort of approximately 200,000 adult men and their mortality experiences were followed until 1984–1985. Multivariate hazards regression analysis showed that marital status and social isolation are associated with significantly higher risks of homicide victimization. Controlling for age and other socioeconomic covariates, single persons were 1.9 times, and divorced, separated or widowed persons were 1.7 times, more likely to die from homicide than married persons. Socially isolated persons were 1.6 times more likely to become homicide victims. Other adult males with increased risk of homicide victimization were African Americans and those who lived in the inner city.

Pathways to aggression: A factorial survey of “Routine conflict”

Abstract: Based on data collected in 1994 from a factorial survey of 2052 respondents, this paper examines how routine conflict may escalate into aggression taking into account social context and characteristics of the victim and offender. Following Luckenbill and Doyle's (1989) suggestion, we developed a series of scenarios to examine the influence of structural position on the emergence of disputes and the legitimation of aggression. The analysis reveals a direct relationship between the intensity of an attack with the emergence of a dispute and the legitimation of aggression. Results indicate that situational aspects of structural position do not extend beyond sex differences. This emphasizes the generalizing effect of male on male confrontation in the legitimation of aggression. The strengths and limitations of scenario-based research for understanding violence in society are discussed.

Victim's perceptions of initial police responses to robbery and aggravated assault: Does race matter?

Abstract: Despite the fact that police officers are usually the first persons within the criminal justice system to respond to a criminal victimization, the majority of research investigating racial discrimination within the system has examined primarily the effects of race on adjudication outcomes which occur after initial police interventions, such as conviction decisions and sentences. Very little empirical effort has been devoted to examining the effects of race on early police responses to a reported victimization. Using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey from 1987 to 1992, this paper investigates the effects of both the victim's and the offender's race on three police responses to robbery and aggravated assault: (1) police response time to the scene, (2) effort exerted by the police at the scene, and (3) likelihood of arrest. It was found that police were quicker to respond and also exerted more effort at the scene such as searching and taking evidence to incidents of black on white robbery compared to all other racial dyads. This relationship held even after controlling for other factors such as victim-offender relationship, poverty, injury to the victim, and victim's gender. No significant effects of race, however, were found when predicting the probability of arrest in cases of robbery. The effects of race on police responses to aggravated assault were more complicated. For assaults involving strangers, police were significantly more likely to exert additional effort at the scene if the victim was white and the offender was perceived to be black. This effect was reversed, however, for nonstranger assault victimizations. Police were significantlyless likely to exert effort at the scene or to make an arrest in black on white assaults involving nonstrangers. The most consistent predictors of arrest in both stranger and nonstranger assault victimizations were police response time, injury to the victim, and the incident occurring in a public setting.

The historical variability of the age-crime relationship

Abstract: Methodological problems arising in fitting nonlinear regressions to a dataset are identified in context of research on the age-crime relationship. A modified chisquare distribution is fit to the age distribution of the seven Index crimes for the years 1952, 1957, 1962, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, and 1988 to assess the historical invariance of the distribution. Problematic features of Britt's (J. Quant. Criminol. 8, 175–187, 1992) analysis of the same data are highlighted.

Quantifying Law in Police-Citizen Encounters

Abstract: The way researchers have traditionally measured police action limits their capacity to test legal theories and shed light onto the determinants of law at the initial stage of the criminal justice process. This paper describes extant police action measures and their limitations, offers a new measure that taps variation in the amount of law police officers use in encounters with citizens, presents the results of an analysis that utilizes the new measure, and discusses the implications of this new measure for legal research.

The Drug and Criminal Activity Patterns of Urban Offenders: A Markov Chain Analysis

Abstract: In criminology, researchers have examined the role of lifestyle and activity patterns on criminal victimization. The vast majority of this research has focused on crime victims as a critical link in criminal victimization, but little attention has been given to the activity patterns of offenders or the connection between the various elements of the offenders' routine activities. This analysis presents a description of the activity patterns of 431 offenders who were heavily involved in crime during 1990–1991 in Philadelphia. A first-order Markov chain process best describes the manner in which offenders enter various activities. The preliminary analysis of these data not only provides additional support for the interrelationship between drug use and crime but also demonstrates that offenders participate in a wide array of activities.

Cold floor effects on homicide

Abstract: The cold floor pattern (a lack of homicides on days with extremely cold temperatures that was found by Cheatwood in Baltimore) is to be expected by chance. Under a model in which the number of homicides and the maximum temperature are independent, the probability that a day will fall below the cold floor is small. The Baltimore data do not support a model in which extremely cold weather suppresses human aggression.

Fax machines and social surveys: Teaching an old dog new tricks

Abstract: Fax machines offer solutions to many of the disadvantages associated with other methods of administering surveys. Faxes are faster than mail methods, offer more control than personal interviews, and require fewer resources than phone surveys. Fax surveys are not without their drawbacks, however. This research note examines the issues that surround this technique of conducting such a survey and considers its suitability as a survey method of the future.

Model specification and interpretation: A reply to Greenberg

Abstract: I appreciate David Greenberg's validation of the two main conclusions in my paper on the age-crime relationship (Britt, 1992). First, we both find evidence of mathematical-form invariance ; Greenberg with a modified chi square density function and I with a gamma density function. Second, we both find limited evidence of parametric invariance. In both of our papers, the strongest evidence for parametric invariance comes from the distribu tions for property crimes, while the strongest evidence of variability in the parameters appears in the homicide and aggravated assault distributions. Although I am encouraged to have my work supported, there are two difficulties with Greenberg's paper worth noting. First, Greenberg's modification of the chi-square density is flawed and generates nonsensical cumulative probabilities. Probability density functions, such as the gamma or the (modified) chi-square, are defined as continuous functions and must have values ranging from 0 to 1 (i.e., 0