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Showing papers in "Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency in 2016"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a longitudinal hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was used to explore how school suspensions contribute to odds of arrest across time while controlling for a number of theoretically important dimensions such as race, age, delinquency, and gender among others.
Abstract: Objectives:To examine how school discipline may serve as a negative turning point for youth and contribute to increased odds of arrest over time and to assess whether suspensions received across multiple years may present a “cumulative” increase in odds of arrest.Methods:Using four waves of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we use a longitudinal hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) to explore how school suspensions contribute to odds of arrest across time while controlling for a number of theoretically important dimensions such as race, age, delinquency, and gender among others.Results:Results show that youth who are suspended are at an increased risk of experiencing an arrest across time relative to youth who are not suspended and that this effect increases across time. Further, with each subsequent year the youth is suspended, there is a significant increase in odds of arrest.Conclusion:Supporting prior work, we find that youth who receive a suspension are at an increased odds...

130 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined how nonideological factors such as childhood risk factors and adolescent conduct problems precede participation in violent extremism and found that pathways to VE are more complex than previously identified in the literature and that violent extremists are a heterogeneous population of offenders whose life histories resemble members of conventional street gangs.
Abstract: Objective:We examined how nonideological factors such as childhood risk factors and adolescent conduct problems precede participation in violent extremism (VE).Methods:We conducted in-depth life-history interviews with former members of violent White supremacist groups (N = 44) to examine their childhood and adolescent experiences, and how they explain the factors that led to the onset of VE.Results:Based on self-reports, we found substantial presence of childhood risk factors and adolescent conduct problems as precursors to participation in violent extremist groups.Conclusions:Our findings suggest that pathways to VE are more complex than previously identified in the literature and that violent extremists are a heterogeneous population of offenders whose life histories resemble members of conventional street gangs and generic criminal offenders. We conclude our article with implications related to criminological theory, directions for future research, and limitations.

95 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that parental incarceration may adversely affect multiple life outcomes for children as they progress from adolescence into adulthood and that such effects may persist from early young adulthood into late young adulthood.
Abstract: Objectives:The transition to adulthood can be challenging, especially for children of incarcerated parents. Drawing on reentry and life-course scholarship, we argue that parental incarceration may adversely affect multiple life outcomes for children as they progress from adolescence into adulthood and that such effects may persist from early young adulthood into late young adulthood.Methods:The study uses propensity score matching analyses of National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health data (N = 12,844).Results:Analyses identified harmful effects of parental incarceration on many life domains, including criminal behavior, mental health, illegal drug use, education, earnings, and intimate relationships. These effects typically surfaced by early young adulthood and continued into late young adulthood.Conclusions:The results suggest that parental incarceration constitutes a significant turning point in the lives of young people and underscore the importance of life-course perspectives for understanding ...

93 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the impact of distal prison placements on inmate social ties and found that distance adversely affects inmates by reducing their access to family and friends and then test whether the effects are amplified for minorities and inmates who come from socially disadvantaged areas.
Abstract: Objectives:This article examines the impact of distal prison placements on inmate social ties. Specifically, we test whether distance adversely affects inmates by reducing their access to family and friends and then test whether the effects are amplified for minorities and inmates who come from socially disadvantaged areas.Methods:These questions are assessed using a sample of inmates that includes all convicted felony offenders admitted to a single state’s prison system over a three-year period.Results:We find that inmates vary greatly in the distance from which they are placed from home and that Latinos are placed more distally than Blacks and Whites. We also find that distance and community disadvantage adversely affect the likelihood of inmate visitation. Although the adverse effect of distance appears to be similar across racial and ethnic groups, a difference exists among Blacks—for this group, high levels of community disadvantage amplify the adverse effects of distance.Conclusions:This study ident...

70 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The National Research Council published a two-volume report, Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals" as mentioned in this paper, which was an intellectual turning point in the field of criminology.
Abstract: In 1986, the National Research Council published a two-volume report, Criminal Careers and “Career Criminals.” This work generated fierce debates central to the field of criminology and pitted some of the biggest names in the business against one another. In this paper, we consider the last 30 years and ask whether the report was an intellectual turning point. Our answer is that while the report did change the methodological direction of criminology, it lacked a theoretical explanation of the dynamics of crime. After the report was published, several efforts attempted to fill this breach. We reflect on the role that the Criminal Careers report played in our own work, from the time of the report’s release to the development and assessment of what is now known as the age-graded theory of informal social control and the broader field of “life-course criminology.”

67 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the malleability of judgments of procedural justice was evaluated using 11 waves of data from the Pathways to Desistance Study (N = 1,354), and multilevel models relate within-person covariates including individual, family, and peer arrests, and age to changes in procedural justice, controlling for stable, individual characteristics.
Abstract: Objectives:This study evaluates the malleability of judgments of procedural justice. Drawing upon various literatures, five factors are hypothesized to be related to changes in procedural justice: (1) prior judgments of procedural justice, (2) direct experiences of arrest, (3) vicarious experiences of arrest, (4) individual arrest history, and (5) age.Methods:Using 11 waves of data from the Pathways to Desistance Study (N = 1,354), multilevel models relate within-person covariates including individual, family, and peer arrests, and age to changes in procedural justice, controlling for stable, individual characteristics.Results:Judgments of procedural justice are anchored in prior perceptions. They are also a function of direct and vicarious experiences of arrests with the effect of individual arrests varying across individual arrest history. Evidence also suggests a developmental component. Age has a direct effect on judgments of procedural justice and conditions the effect of individual arrests on change...

55 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Although adolescents were more often target of solicitation, the risk of sexual outcomes was equally high in solicitation of children, suggesting younger children to be considered in prevention efforts as well.
Abstract: Objectives:This study examined how frequently online sexual solicitation of adolescents and children by adults occurs and what characteristics the perpetrators have using a novel methodological approach.Method:In an online survey, we investigated the frequency of online sexual solicitation exhibited by adult Internet users (N = 2,828), including a subgroup recruited on pedophilia-related websites. Perpetrators soliciting adolescents were compared to those soliciting children concerning solicitation outcomes (e.g., cybersex) and demography.Results:In total, 4.5 percent reported soliciting adolescents and 1.0 percent reported soliciting children. Most solicitors of adolescents and children were from pedophilia-related websites (49.1 and 79.2 percent). Solicitation frequently involved sexual outcomes (47.5 percent), which also followed nonsexual interaction. The minors’ age did not affect the odds of sexual outcomes. A substantial proportion of perpetrators were female.Conclusions:This study offers unprecede...

51 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined a core hypothesis of Unnever and Gabbidon's theory that racial discrimination should diminish the ability of African American youths to build strong bonds with their school, which in turn should increase their likelihood of engaging in problematic behaviors over time.
Abstract: Objectives:This article examines a core hypothesis of Unnever and Gabbidon’s theory that racial discrimination should diminish the ability of African American youths to build strong bonds with their school, which in turn should increase their likelihood of engaging in problematic behaviors over time. Their thesis further argues that these relationships should persist after controlling for affectional ties with parents and other covariates.Methods:This hypothesis is assessed using data from two cohorts included within the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, Longitudinal Cohort Study.Results:The results show that racial discrimination predicts changes in problematic behaviors from wave 1 to wave 3 and weakens the attachment that African American youths have with their teachers and their commitment to their education while controlling for affectional ties to parents and other covariates.Conclusions:The results lend support to Unnever and Gabbidon’s thesis that a holistic understanding of A...

47 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine how neighborhoods vary in the degree to which they experience repeat/near repeat crime patterns and whether theoretical constructs representing neighborhood-level context, including social ecology and structural attributes, can explain variation in single incidents and those linked in space and time.
Abstract: Objectives:Examine how neighborhoods vary in the degree to which they experience repeat/near repeat crime patterns and whether theoretical constructs representing neighborhood-level context, including social ecology and structural attributes, can explain variation in single incidents and those linked in space and time.Methods:Examine social, structural, and environmental design covariates from the American Community Survey to assess the context of near repeat burglary at the block group level. Spatially lagged negative binomial regression models were estimated to assess the relative contribution of these covariates on single and repeat/near repeat burglary counts.Results:Positive and consistent association between concentrated disadvantage and racial heterogeneity and all types of burglaries was evident, although the effects for other indicators, including residential instability, family disruption, and population density, varied across classifications of single and repeat/near repeat burglaries.Conclusio...

45 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors traces the origins of group-based trajectory modeling from its inception as a statistical tool for analyzing issues central to the criminal careers debate of the 1990s to its widespread application outside of criminology especially in psychological and medical research to study the developmental course of disease and physiological processes.
Abstract: This essay traces the origins of group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) from its inception as a statistical tool for analyzing issues central to the criminal careers debate of the 1990s to its widespread application outside of criminology especially in psychological and medical research to study the developmental course of disease and physiological processes. Also, discussed are common misconceptions about the interpretation of GBTM.

39 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the defensive actions of drug sellers in open-air retail markets and found that the frequency of many defensive actions was significantly related to geographic setting and time of day.
Abstract: Objectives:The current study contributes to the literature through a systematic social observation of the defensive actions of drug sellers within open-air retail markets. The study expands upon previous literature by incorporating a novel data collection and coding method.Methods:Video footage of narcotics transactions was extracted from the closed-circuit television (CCTV) system of the Newark, NJ Police Department. Researchers transcribed and coded the footage to measure the frequency of defensive actions incorporated by drug sellers. Fisher’s exact tests measured whether the frequency of each defensive action significantly differed across geographic setting or time of day.Results:The frequency of many defensive actions was significantly related to geographic setting and time of day. The strongest relationship was observed between the use of stash spots and setting. Overall, the findings suggest that drug sellers adopt tenets of Opportunity Theory to protect themselves from law enforcement, specificall...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a signaling scale was constructed using a mixed graded response model and national longitudinal data to explore the thesis that gang prospects select into gangs using hard-to-fake signals of quality and gangs, in turn, receive and interpret these signals to select high-quality over low-quality prospects and the selection process in a signaling framework conditions the well established relationship between gang membership and criminal offending.
Abstract: Objective:The mechanisms underlying selection into street gangs remain elusive in the current inventory of theory and research on gangs, raising continued questions about not who or why, but how youth enter gangs and the attendant criminological implications. This study provides a suggestive analysis of an alternative framing of the selection process, one that is rooted in signaling theory.Methods:A signaling scale was constructed using a mixed graded response model and national longitudinal data to explore the thesis that (1) gang prospects select into gangs using hard-to-fake signals of quality and gangs, in turn, receive and interpret these signals to select high-quality over low-quality prospects and (2) the selection process in a signaling framework conditions the well-established relationship between gang membership and criminal offending.Results:Respondents scoring higher on a signaling scale were more likely to select into gangs prospectively and see greater, although nonlinear, increases in crimi...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors take theoretically based research as its guide to explanation of crime and crime prevention policy, focusing on the implications for theory and policy of the versatility of offenders, the relative stab...
Abstract: Students of criminal careers seek distinct longitudinal sequences of offenses committed by individual offenders. Their approach is explicitly theory free: It assumes that meaningfully different careers may be identified by close examination of the criminal activity of individuals over extended periods of time. They first locate in justice system records a set of careers defined by such parameters as length, trajectory, and specialization in particular crimes. Once the various types have been shown to be sufficiently abundant—explanation, prediction, and policy are expected automatically to follow. By some standards, the criminal career perspective has been successful. It has been assimilated by the life-course perspective and has generated a large body of research. Our alternative approach takes theoretically based research as its guide to explanation of crime and crime prevention policy. In particular, it focuses on the implications for theory and policy of the versatility of offenders, the relative stab...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the effect of within-person changes in time spent in adult roles on self-reported delinquency and moderation of this effect by feelings of adultness.
Abstract: Objectives:Test whether Moffitt’s theory of adolescence-limited offenders, which contends that as young people enter adult roles they exit the “maturity gap” of adolescence and desist from crime, still applies given the changed nature of the early adult years. Examine whether spending time in adult roles remains a driver of desistance, and whether today’s emerging adults are at risk of experiencing a maturity gap between how adult they feel and the reality of their social situation.Methods:Using longitudinal data from a Dutch general population sample aged 18 to 24 years, fixed-effects models were run examining the effect of within-person changes in time spent in adult roles on self-reported delinquency and moderation of this effect by feelings of adultness.Results:The more time spent in adult roles, the less delinquency respondents consequently reported. This effect was moderated: When spending more time in adult roles and feeling more adult, higher delinquency was reported than when spending more time i...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the relationship between maternal incarceration and adverse outcomes for offspring in early adulthood and found that mothers who served time in prison were significantly more likely to have an adult arrest, conviction, and incarceration, even after controlling for important demographic factors and correlates of criminal behavior.
Abstract: Objectives:This note examines the relationship between maternal incarceration and adverse outcomes for offspring in early adulthood.Methods:Utilizing data derived from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health, a series of multivariate models are conducted to examine the impact maternal incarceration has on criminal justice involvement among young adults. To control for selection effects that may be associated with maternal imprisonment, propensity score matching is utilized.Results:Respondents whose mothers had served time in prison were significantly more likely to have an adult arrest, conviction, and incarceration, even after controlling for important demographic factors and correlates of criminal behavior. This effect persisted following matching.Conclusions:Maternal incarceration had a substantial effect on the offspring’s adult involvement in the criminal justice system. These findings bolster contentions regarding the unintended consequences of maternal incarceration that include long-...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used discrete choice modeling to predict burglar offenders' crime locations in the City of Tampa, Florida from 2000 to 2012, and found that burglars from all neighborhood types targeted neighborhoods that are geographically proximate or ecologically similar to their own.
Abstract: Objectives:Neighborhood characteristics predict burglary targets, but target attractiveness may be colored by the conditions in which a potential offender resides We test whether relative differences in concentrated disadvantage, racial/ethnic composition, and ethnic heterogeneity influence where burglars offend, controlling for distance From a relative deprivation perspective, economically advantaged areas make more attractive targets to burglars residing in disadvantage neighborhoods, but a social disorganization perspective predicts areas lower in social cohesion are most attractive, which may be neighborhoods with greater disadvantageMethods:Drawing upon a unique sample of cleared burglaries in the City of Tampa, Florida from 2000 to 2012, we utilize discrete choice modeling to predict burglar offense destinationResults:Offenders target neighborhoods that are geographically proximate or ecologically similar to their own When accounting for relative differences, burglars from all neighborhood type

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the characteristics of spatial and temporal patterning of arson incidents in a large urban county were investigated for significant space-time interaction using the Monte Carlo simulation-based Knox method, originally developed for epidemiology research.
Abstract: Objectives:To investigate the characteristics of spatial and temporal patterning of arson incidents in a large urban county.Methods:Using multiyear geocoded crime data from the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office (2005 to 2012), arson incidents are analyzed for significant space–time interaction using the Monte Carlo simulation-based Knox method, originally developed for epidemiology research. Several additional contrasts are presented according to situational and routine activities factors that may be implicated in target selection and guardianship efficacy.Results:Evidence illustrates that arson generally exhibits enhanced likelihood of near repeat follow-up incidents in close spatial and temporal proximity to an initiating event. Also, spatiotemporal patterns for arson exhibit systematic differences when contrasting subtypes including residential versus non-residential, daytime versus nighttime, and weekday versus weekend arsons.Conclusions:Comparatively little empirical research has been published in ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: For instance, this article found that participants rely on both observed behavior and various forms of communication when forming perceptions of friends' drinking, though there is notable variation across these elements, and when using hypothetical vignettes, results suggest projection bias is significantly diminished as subjects are provided with more information about a hypothetical peer.
Abstract: Objectives:To consider, at a conceptual level, the factors that inform perceptions of peer deviance and subsequently, at an empirical level, the extent to which survey information from high school students confirms whether these elements shape perceptions of friends’ drinking. This study also offers an alternative way to document projection bias.Methods:249 public high school students completed a survey about what factors inform their perceptions of friends’ drinking behavior. Subjects also responded to several vignettes in order to assess their general tendency to engage in projection.Results:Subjects rely on both observed behavior and various forms of communication when forming perceptions of friends’ drinking, though there is notable variation across these elements. When using hypothetical vignettes, results suggest projection bias is significantly diminished as subjects are provided with more information about a hypothetical peer.Conclusions:Adolescents appear to rely on a wide range of information wh...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a series of negative binomial regression models were estimated on a sample of 11,288 youth participating in the Add Health study to assess the moderating influence of neighborhood disadvantage on the association between impulsivity and violence aggregated to the census block group and the census tract.
Abstract: Objectives:To examine whether the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) observed in studies of aggregate crime rates poses a threat to studies examining the moderating effect of neighborhood processes on the association between individual risk factors and self-reported violence.Methods:A series of negative binomial regression models were estimated on a sample of 11,288 youth participating in the Add Health study to assess the moderating influence of neighborhood disadvantage on the association between impulsivity and violence aggregated to the census block group and the census tract.Results:One-unit increases in neighborhood disadvantage and impulsivity were associated with 5.1 percent and 4.9 percent increases in the expected count of self-reported violent behaviors, respectively. Neighborhood disadvantage exacerbated the association between impulsivity and self-reported violence when measured at the tract level but had no moderating effect when measured at the block group.Conclusions:The findings reporte...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Investigating how marriage promotes desistance from crime among urban African American males raised in the Woodlawn community, a disadvantaged neighborhood in Chicago shows evidence that this effect differs by neighborhood structural context.
Abstract: Objectives:This study tests theorized mechanisms of desistance, and whether the process of desistance is conditioned by social structural position.Methods:We investigate how marriage promotes desistance from crime among urban African American males raised in the Woodlawn community, a disadvantaged neighborhood in Chicago. Using hierarchical linear modeling, we test the resiliency of the marriage effect by observing offending trajectories following marital dissolution; is the marriage effect conditional upon staying married, indicating situational effects? or does the effect persist when marriage is taken away, indicating enduring effects? Further, we test if the process of desistance is conditional upon contextual disadvantage.Results:While initial findings show an increase in violent and property offending upon divorce, further analysis shows evidence that this effect differs by neighborhood structural context; the increase in offending upon divorce is apparent only for African American men who experienc...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Both upward and downward changes in educational attainments were found to be significant for crime, which is notable given the continuing expansion of higher education as well as concerns regarding increasing stratification and downward mobility in the United States.
Abstract: Objectives:This article examines the relationship between intergenerational educational pathways and change in crime. Moreover, it examines the potential mediating roles of family and employment transitions, economic stressors, and social psychological factors.Method:Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (N = 14,742) and negative binomial models are used to assess associations between educational pathways (i.e., upward, downward, and stable) and change in crime between adolescence and early adulthood. Selection effects are assessed with lagged dependent variables and controls for self-control, grades, and the Add Health Picture Vocabulary Test.Results:Intergenerational educational pathways are significantly associated with changes in crime. Downward educational pathways were predictive of increases in crime, whereas upward pathways were associated with decreases in crime. These associations were partly mediated by family transitions, and more strongly by economic stressor...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors build on previous work by using multiple analytic methods to assess specialization/versatility among domestic violence offenders, with a focus on gender differences, finding an effect of gender on DV specialization as well as relationships between the age of onset and the overall offending frequency.
Abstract: Objectives:Existing theory and policy regarding domestic violence (DV) often assume a highly specialized offender. Specialization literature in general, however, holds that specialization is not very common—even in DV. The current study builds on previous work by using multiple analytic methods to assess specialization/versatility among DV offenders, with a focus on gender differences.Methods:The sample includes 730 individuals processed through a misdemeanor DV docket. Demographic measures were available, and complete criminal histories were compiled for each defendant. Analyses include the diversity index and offense specialization coefficient, multivariate models predicting those measures, multilevel item response theory analysis, and latent class analysis (LCA).Results:Results are generally consistent in finding an effect of gender on DV specialization as well as relationships between the age of onset and the overall offending frequency. Female offenders demonstrate a greater degree of DV specializati...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article examined three reasons why suspects resist arrest: (1) defiance of police authority by lower-status groups, (2) risky decisions resulting from aversion to sure losses, and (3) impairment due to mental illness and substance use.
Abstract: Objectives:We examine three reasons why suspects resist arrest: (1) defiance of police authority by suspects from lower-status groups, (2) risky decisions resulting from aversion to sure losses, and (3) impairment due to mental illness and substance use.Methods:We use nationally representative survey data from about 17,000 state and federal inmates who were asked whether they resisted arrest when they committed the crime that led to their incarceration.Results:Suspects’ resistance is unrelated to their race/ethnicity, education, or unemployment. On the other hand, suspects are more resistant when they are carrying contraband (e.g., illegal weapons, drugs, stolen property) or are under community supervision (i.e., parolees, probationers, or escapees). Resistance is also positively related to mental illness, illicit drug use, and alcohol intoxication.Conclusions:Our results do not support the idea that resistance is an expression of defiance from lower-status suspects. They are consistent with prospect theo...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined whether victim, offender, and relationship characteristics increase the risk and frequency of intimate partner violence (IPV) and evaluated the effect of separation length on the risk of IPV.
Abstract: Objectives:To examine whether victim, offender, and relationship characteristics increase the risk and frequency of intimate partner violence (IPV). The effect of separation length on the risk of IPV is also evaluated.Methods:Using abuse incident data (N = 4,960) from IPV victims (n = 497), who accessed a health-care facility over a one-year period, between-individual differences in the frequency and timing of abuse were assessed. Dependence of event times within respondents was accounted for with conditional risk set “gap time” models, which stratified participants across event number and failure order.Results:Employment of both partners and only the victim decreased the risk and frequency. Employment of only the abuser and length of separation decreased frequency but was not significantly associated with timing of abuse. Separated and non-separated respondents were not significantly different in frequency (incident risk ratio = 1.06, p > .05) and timing of abuse, (exp (b) = 0.95, p > .05).Conclusions:By...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate whether Israeli Jews who perceive that the Israeli National Police (INP) values homeland security more than its crime responsibilities have lower evaluations of police legitimacy and, in turn, are less willing to cooperate with the police.
Abstract: Objectives:Terrorism is becoming a priority among police agencies in many Western democracies. Scholars argue that increasing homeland security responsibilities can erode police–community relations, in that people perceive the police as neglecting local crime problems for homeland security concerns.Methods:Using Israel as a case study, we evaluate, through path analyses, whether Israeli Jews who perceive that the Israeli National Police (INP) values homeland security more than its crime responsibilities have lower evaluations of police legitimacy and, in turn, are less willing to cooperate with the police.Results:The findings demonstrate that those who believe the INP neglects its crime responsibilities for homeland security view the police as less legitimate, and lower evaluations of police legitimacy decrease willingness to cooperate. The overall indirect effect of perceived neglect on cooperation is not significant.Conclusions:Based on the findings, it is clear that perceptions of what the police ought...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Interventions have to be multifaceted and targeted at the family in order to mitigate the risk of young offenders from developing into pathological adult criminals.
Abstract: Objectives:There were two aims to this study: firstly, to identify family subtypes of Singaporean youth offenders based on eight family variables. Secondly, the associations of these family subtypes with youth offending outcomes were tested.Methods:With a sample of 3,744 youth, a latent class analysis was first conducted based on eight family variables. Multivariate analyses and a Cox regression were subsequently performed to analyze the associations of the family classes with age at first arrest, age at first charge, and recidivism.Results:A three-class solution was found to have the best fit to the data: (1) intact functioning families had little family risk; (2) families with criminality had higher probabilities of family criminality, of drug/alcohol abuse, and of being nonintact; and (3) poorly managed families received the poorest parenting and were more likely to be nonintact. Youth offenders from the latter two classes were arrested and charged at younger ages. Additionally, they reoffended at a qu...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors test the effect of deviant peer modeling on theft as conditioned by verbal support for theft and number of deviate models and found that participants in the verbal prompting plus behavioral modeling group were most likely to steal, followed by the behavioral modelling group.
Abstract: Objectives:Test the effect of deviant peer modeling on theft as conditioned by verbal support for theft and number of deviant models.Methods:Two related randomized experiments in which participants were given a chance to steal a gift card (ostensibly worth CAN$15) from the table in front of them. Each experiment had a control group, a verbal prompting group in which confederate(s) endorsed stealing, a behavioral modeling group in which confederate(s) committed theft, and a verbal prompting plus behavioral modeling group in which confederate(s) did both. The first experiment used one confederate; the second experiment used two. The pooled sample consisted of 335 undergraduate students.Results:Participants in the verbal prompting plus behavioral modeling group were most likely to steal followed by the behavioral modeling group. Interestingly, behavioral modeling was only influential when two confederates were present. There were no thefts in either the control or verbal prompting groups regardless of the nu...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Consumers make rational decisions to purchase illicit cigarettes within the constraints they face as a result of their socioeconomic position, using the illegal cigarette market in the South Bronx as a case study.
Abstract: Objectives:This article examines the decision-making of consumers of illegal goods and services, using the illegal cigarette market in the South Bronx as a case study.Methods:Sixty-seven adult smokers residing in the South Bronx (New York City) were purposively recruited and placed into 13 focus groups stratified by gender and age to discuss their purchasing patterns of cigarettes.Results:Our participants routinely buy and consume illicit cigarettes. They prefer to purchase these illicit cigarettes in legitimate stores rather than from street vendors. In their decision-making, our participants are guided by various concerns, including reliable access to illicit cigarettes, minimal exposure to the police, the ability to purchase cigarettes on credit, reduced risk of being sold low-quality cigarettes (i.e., stale, counterfeit), and the chance to successfully complain in case of poor product quality.Conclusions:Consumers make rational decisions to purchase illicit cigarettes within the constraints they face ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Theories in criminology rarely make exact quantitative predictions that can be tested empirically as mentioned in this paper, which is why it is useful to build on these simple mathematical models to predict a wider range of criminological results and convert crime science into a more predictive and accurate science.
Abstract: Theories in criminology rarely make exact quantitative predictions that can be tested empirically. This article reviews mathematical models of criminal careers, which are simple theories that fit a wide variety of empirical data. It focuses on the work of Blumstein and his colleagues in the 1980s and on the more recent research of MacLeod, Grove, and Farrington. Criminal career data can be fitted by simple assumptions specifying that the frequency of offending and the probability of recidivism are constant over time and that there are two or three categories of offenders who differ in these parameters. These theories also predict future offending. It is useful to build on these simple mathematical models to predict a wider range of criminological results and convert criminology into a more predictive and accurate science.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors found that the current most commonly used models have done a good job of capturing heterogeneity and describing changes in latent rates with age, but there has been little apparent attention paid to the issue of intermittency, despite the prominence of the issue in the original criminal careers volume.
Abstract: The challenge for criminologists interested in studying change after the criminal career volume was fairly clear—create models that could capture the obvious heterogeneity that existed across the population, describe changes in offending over age, and capture the apparent intermittency in the data in offending frequency for individuals. In our review, we find that the current most commonly used models have, in fact, done a good job of capturing heterogeneity and describing changes in latent rates with age. However, there has been little apparent attention paid to the issue of intermittency, despite the prominence of the issue in the original criminal careers volume. This had led to an overall vision of change in the literature that has “smoothed out” or flattened the actual paths described in this research. In the example provided in this article, using administrative data from New York, we show that there appear to be uneven periods of time between arrests even for people with fixed number of arrests in ...