Showing papers in "Journal of the European Economic Association in 2005"

Liquidity Risk and Contagion

Abstract: This paper explores liquidity risk in a system of interconnected financial institutions when these institutions are subject to regulatory solvency constraints and mark their assets to market. When the market's demand for illiquid assets is less than perfectly elastic, sales by distressed institutions depress the market prices of such assets. Marking to market of the asset book can induce a further round of endogenously generated sales of assets, depressing prices further and inducing further sales. Contagious failures can result from small shocks. We investigate the theoretical basis for contagious failures and quantify them through simulation exercises. Liquidity requirements on institutions can be as effective as capital requirements in forestalling contagious failures. (JEL: G21, G28)

Fighting Corruption to Improve Schooling: Evidence from a Newspaper Campaign in Uganda

Abstract: What are the most effective ways to increase primary school enrollment and student learning? We argue that innovations in governance of social services may yield the highest return since social service delivery in developing countries is often plagued by inefficiencies and corruption. We illustrate this by using data from an unusual policy experiment. A newspaper campaign in Uganda aimed at reducing capture of public funds by providing schools (parents) with information to monitor local officials' handling of a large education grant program. The campaign was highly successful and the reduction in capture had a positive effect on enrollment and student learning. (JEL: D73, I22, O12)

Regulation and Investment

Abstract: use newly assembled data on regulation in several sectors of many OECD countries to provide evidence that regulatory reform of product markets is associated with an increase in investment. A component of reform that plays a very important role is entry liberalization, but privatization also has a substantial effect on investment. Sensitivity analysis suggests that our results are robust. (JEL: E22, L5)

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics

Abstract: The volatility of economic activity in most G7 economies has moderated over the past 40 years. Also, despite large increases in trade and openness, G7 business cycles have not become more synchronized. After documenting these facts, we interpret G7 output data using a structural VAR that separately identifies common international shocks, the domestic effects of spillovers from foreign idiosyncratic shocks, and the effects of domestic idiosyncratic shocks. This analysis suggests that, with the exception of Japan, a significant portion of the widespread reduction in volatility is associated with a reduction in the magnitude of the common international shocks. Had the common international shocks in the 1980s and 1990s been as large as they were in the 1960s and 1970s, G7 business cycles would have been substantially more volatile and more (JEL: C3, E5)

Teacher absence in india: a snapshot

Abstract: Twenty-five percent of teachers were absent from school, and only about half were teaching, during unannounced visits to a nationally representative sample of government primary schools in India. Absence rates varied from 15% in Maharashtra to 42% in Jharkhand, with higher rates concentrated in the poorer states. We do not find that higher pay is associated with lower absence. Older teachers, more educated teachers, and head teachers are all paid more but are also more frequently absent; contract teachers are paid much less than regular teachers but have similar absence rates; and although relative teacher salaries are higher in poorer states, absence rates are also higher. Teacher absence is more correlated with daily incentives to attend work: teachers are less likely to be absent at schools that have been inspected recently, that have better infrastructure, and that are closer to a paved road. We find little evidence that attempting to strengthen local community ties will reduce absence. Teachers from the local area have similar absence rates as teachers from outside the community. Locally controlled nonformal schools have slightly higher absence rates than schools run by the state government. The existence of a PTA is not correlated with lower absence. Private-school teachers are only slightly less likely to be absent than public-school teachers in general, but are 8 percentage points less likely to be absent than public-school teachers in the same village. (JEL: O15, I21, H41, H52)

History, social divisions, and public goods in rural india

Abstract: We examine the influence of three historically important sources of social divisions on the availability of public goods in rural India: colonial power, landowner-peasant relations as determined by the land tenure system and social fragmentation based on the Hindu caste system and the presence of sizable religious minorities. Using data on public goods from 1991, we find that regions that were under British colonial power in the pre-independence period and those where agrarian power was concentrated in the hands of landlords have lower access to these goods as do areas with high levels of social fragmentation. (JEL: H41, P16)

The effect of employment protection on worker effort: absenteeism during and after probation

Abstract: Employment protection systems are widely believed to generate distortions in firms' hiring and firing decisions. However, much less is known about the impact of these regulations on workers' behavior. In this paper we provide evidence on the latter question using data from a large Italian bank. Our analysis is based on weekly observations for 545 men and 313 females hired as white-collar workers between January 1993 and February 1995. These workers begin to be protected against firing only after the 12th week of tenure, and we observe them for one year. We show that—particularly for men—the number of days of absence per week increases significantly once employment protection is granted at the end of probation. This suggests that the provision of employment protection causes the increase in absenteeism. Alternative explanations based on career concerns or on learning about social norms would predict a smooth relationship between absenteeism and tenure instead of the observed discrete jump. This consequence of employment protection seems to have been neglected in European policy debates so far. (JEL: J2, D2, D8, M5)

Property rights and investment in urban slums

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of changes in tenure security on residential investment in urban squatter neighborhoods. To address the endogeneity of property rights, I make use of variation in ownership status induced by a nationwide titling program in Peru. In a difference-in-difference analysis, I compare the change in housing investment before and after the program among participating households to the change in investment among two samples of nonparticipants. My results indicate that strengthening property rights in urban slums has a significant effect on residential investment: the rate of housing renovation rises by more than two-thirds of the baseline level. The bulk of the increase is financed without the use of credit, indicating that changes over time reflect an increase in investment incentives related to lower threat of eviction. (JEL: O12, O18, P25, P26)

The Effect of Benefit Sanctions on the Duration of Unemployment

Abstract: This paper investigates the effectiveness of unemployment benefit sanctions in reducing unemployment duration. Swiss data on benefit sanctions allow us to separate the effect of a warning that a person is not complying with eligibility requirements from the effect of the actual enforcement of a benefit sanction. Moreover, public employment services are given substantial leeway in setting the monitoring intensity. Results indicate that both warning and enforcement have a positive effect on the exit rate out of unemployment, and that increasing the monitoring intensity reduces the duration of unemployment of the nonsanctioned. (JEL: J64, J65, J68)

Financial dependence, banking sector competition, and economic growth

Abstract: The relationships among competition in the financial sector, access of firms to external financing, and associated economic growth are ambiguous in theory. Moreover, measuring competition in the financial sector can be complex. In this paper the authors first estimate for 16 countries a measure of banking system competition based on industrial organization theory. They then relate this competition measure to growth of industries and find that greater competition in countries' banking systems allows financially dependent industries to grow faster. These results are robust under a variety of tests. Their results suggest that the degree of competition is an important aspect of financial sector functioning.

Who are Russia's Entrepreneurs?

Abstract: Social scientists studying entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct sets of variables: the institutional environment, sociological variables, and personal and psychological characteristics. We are conducting surveys in five large developing and transition economies to better understand entrepreneurship. In this short paper, using over 2,000 interviews from a pilot study in Russia, we find evidence that the three sets of variables matter: perceptions of the local institutional environment, social network effects, and individual characteristics are all important in determining entrepreneurial behavior. (JEL: M13, O12, P12)

Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State

Abstract: This paper considers the appropriate stabilization objectives for monetary policy in a microfounded model with staggered price-setting. Rotemberg and Woodford (1997) and Woodford (2002) have shown that under certain conditions, a local approximation to the expected utility of the representative household in a model of this kind is related inversely to the expected discounted value of a conventional quadratic loss function, in which each period's loss is a weighted average of squared deviations of inflation and an output gap measure from their optimal values (zero). However, those derivations rely on an assumption of the existence of an output or employment subsidy that offsets the distortion due to the market power of monopolistically-competitive price-setters, so that the steady state under a zero-inflation policy involves an efficient level of output. Here we show how to dispense with this unappealing assumption, so that a valid linear-quadratic approximation to the optimal policy problem is possible even when the steady state is distorted to an arbitrary extent (allowing for tax distortions as well as market power), and when, as a consequence, it is necessary to take account of the effects of stabilization policy on the average level of output. We again obtain a welfare-theoretic loss function that involves both inflation and an appropriately defined output gap, though the degree of distortion of the steady state affects both the weights on the two stabilization objectives and the definition of the welfare-relevant output gap. In the light of these results, we reconsider the conditions under which complete price stability is optimal, and find that they are more restrictive in the case of a distorted steady state. We also consider the conditions under which pure randomization of monetary policy can be welfare-improving, and find that this is possible in the case of a sufficiently distorted steady state, though the parameter values required are probably not empirically realistic.

Social Learning and Voluntary Cooperation among Like-Minded People

Abstract: Many people contribute to public goods but stop doing so once they experience free riding.We test the hypothesis that groups whose members know that they are composed only of "likeminded" cooperators are able to maintain a higher cooperation level than the most cooperative, randomly composed groups. Our experiments confirm this hypothesis. We also predict that groups of "like-minded" free riders do not cooperate. Yet, we find a high level of strategic cooperation that eventually col-lapses. Our results underscore the importance of group composition and social learning by heterogeneously motivated agents to understand the dynamics of cooperation and free riding

Entry liberalization and inequality in industrial performance

Abstract: Industrial delicensing, which began in 1985 in India marked a discrete break from a past of centrally planned industrial development. Similar liberalization episodes are taking place across the globe. We develop a simple Schumpeterian growth model to understand how firms respond to the entry threat imposed by liberalization. The model emphasizes that firm responses, even within the same industrial sector, are likely to be heterogeneous leading to an increase in within industry inequality. Technologically advanced firms and those located in regions with pro-business institutions are more likely to respond to the threat of entry by investing in new technologies and production processes. Empirical analysis using a panel of three-digit stateindustry data from India for the period 1980–1997 confirms that delicensing led to an increase in within industry inequality in industrial performance. (JEL: F14, 012, 031)

Policies and impact: an analysis of village-level microfinance institutions

Abstract: This paper uses variation in policies and institutional characteristics to evaluate the impacts of village-level microfinance institutions in rural Thailand. To identify impacts, we use policies related to the successful/unsuccessful provision of services as exogenous variation in effective financial intermediation. We find that institutions, particularly those with good policies, can promote asset growth, consumption smoothing and occupational mobility, and can decrease moneylender reliance. Specifically, cash-lending institutions—production credit groups and especially women's groups—are successful in providing intermediation and its benefits to members, while buffalo banks and rice banks are not. The policies identified as important to intermediation and benefits: the provision of savings services, especially pledged savings accounts; emergency services; and training and advice. Surprisingly, much publicized policies such as joint liability, default consequences, or repayment frequency had no measured impacts. (JEL: 012, 016)

Participatory democracy in action: survey evidence from south india

Abstract: We use household and village survey data from South India to examine who participates in village meetings called by elected local governments, and what effect these meetings have on beneficiary selection for welfare programs. Our main finding is that it is the more disadvantaged social groups who attend village meetings and that holding such meetings improves the targeting of resources towards the neediest groups. (JEL: H40, H42, O20)

The Economics of Small Worlds

Abstract: We examine a simple economic model of network formation where agents bene…t from indirect relationships. We show that small-world features — short path lengths between nodes together with highly clustered link structures — necessarily emerge for a wide set of parameters.

Credit market imperfections and patterns of international trade and capital flows

Abstract: This paper offers two simple models to illustrate how corporate governance, contractual enforcement, and the balance sheet condition of the business sector etc., can affect the patterns of international trade and capital flows in the presence of credit market imperfections. (JEL: D52, F15, F21, F40)

Banking for the poor: evidence from india

Abstract: State led credit and savings programs have been implemented in numerous low income countries, but their success in reaching the poor remains widely debated. We report on research which exploits the policy features of the Indian social banking program to provide evidence on this issue. State-led branch expansion into rural unbanked locations reduced poverty across Indian states. In addition, the enforcement of directed bank lending requirements was associated with increased bank borrowing among the poor, in particular low caste and tribal groups.

A Drawback of Electoral Competition

Abstract: In most major democracies there are very few parties compared to the number of possible policy positions held by voters. We provide an efficiency rationale for why it might be appropriate to limit the proliferation of parties. In our model, the larger the number of parties, the greater the inefficiency of the outcome of electoral competition. The reason is that, when the number of parties increases, electoral incentives push each party to focus its electoral promises on a narrower constituency, and then special interest policies replace more efficient policies that have diffuse benefits. The analysis provides a possible explanation for the existence of institutional features that limit the extent of electoral competition: thresholds of exclusion, runoff electoral systems, and majoritarian two-party political systems. (JEL: D82, L15)

From cash‐in‐the‐market pricing to financial fragility

Abstract: We review some recent research that explores the relationship between asset-price volatility and financial fragility when markets and contracts are incomplete. (JEL: E5, G2)

Outsourcing and offshoring of business services: how important is ICT?

Abstract: This paper considers the impact that information and communication technology (ICT) has on firms’ choices over organisational form. In particular, the decision over whether to produce in-house or outsource services, and the decision over the location of activity. ICT reduces the transaction and adjustment costs of moving activity outside the firm, and of carrying it out at greater geographic distance. We find that more ICT-intensive firms purchase a greater amount of services on the market and they are more likely to purchase offshore than less ICT-intensive firms. (JEL: D21, F23, L23)

Trust, Social Capital and Economic Development ∗

Abstract: Many argue that elements of a society’s norms, culture or social capital are central to understanding its development. However, these notions have been difficult to capture in economic models. Here we explore ap ossible role for ‘trustworthiness’ as corresponding to social capital. Individuals are trustworthy when they perform in accordance with promises, even if this does not maximize their payoffs. The usual focus on incentive structures in motivating behaviour plays no role here. Instead, we emphasize more deep-seated modes of behaviour and consider trustworthy agents being socialized to act as they do. To model this socialization, we borrow from a process of preference evolution pioneered by Bisin and Verdier (2001). The model developed endogenously accounts for social capital and explores its role in the process of economic development. It captures in a simple, formal way the interaction between social capital and the economy’s productive processes. The results obtained caution against rapid reform and provide an explanation for why late developing countries may not easily be able to transplant the modes of production that have proved useful in the West.

The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth

Abstract: The demographic transition that swept the world in the course of the last century has been identified as one of the prime forces in the transition from stagnation to growth. The unprecedented increase in population growth during the early stages of industrialization was ultimately reversed and the demographic transition brought about a significant reduction in fertility rates and population growth in various regions of the world, enabling economies to convert a larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and technological progress into growth of income per capita. This paper examines various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition, assessing their empirical validity, and their potential role in the transition from stagnation to growth. (JEL: O11, O14, O33, O40, J11, J13)

How Does Product Market Competition Shape Incentive Contracts

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of product market competition on the explicit compensation packages that firms offer to their CEOs, executives and workers. We use a large sample of both traded and nontraded UK firms and exploit a quasi-natural experiment associated to an increase in competition. The sudden appreciation of the pound in 1996 implied different changes in competition for sectors with different degrees of openness. Our difference in differences estimates show that a higher level of product market competition increases the performance pay sensitivity of compensation schemes, in particular for executives. (JEL: J33, L20, G34)

Female Labor Supply as Insurance against Idiosyncratic Risk

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the role of female labor supply as an insurance mechanism against idiosyncratic earnings risk within the family. We use a life-cycle model in which a unitary family makes consumption, saving, and labor supply decisions. Additional uncertainty increases female participation rates. This effect on participation is greatest when the ability to borrow (and hence to smooth consumption) is limited. We calculate the welfare cost of increases in uncertainty and show that the welfare cost is greater when households are unable to adjust female labor supply. (JEL: J22, D91)

Two views of inequality over the life cycle

Abstract: Data on the life-cycle profiles of inequality in wages, earnings, hours worked, and consumption contain precious information for answering questions about the ability of households to insure labor market risk and about the sources of this risk. This paper demonstrates that the choice of whether to control for cohort effects or for time effects has a drastic impact on the estimated age profiles for inequality and, thus on the answers to those questions. It also shows that time effects are required to account of the observed trends in inequality in 30 years of U.S. data, whereas there is no evidence that cohort effects have been important. (JEL: C13, D31, D91, J22, J31)

Why Political Reservations

Abstract: Many countries are amending their political systems to set aside positions to groups, such as women and racial or religious minorities, that are perceived as being disadvantaged. Using evidence from India, this article assesses the case for these reservations. (JEL: H4, O15) Several countries have introduced procedures—either explicit quotas or forms of gerrymandering—to ensure political representation of disadvantaged groups, such as women or ethnic minorities. In 2001, quotas for women in parliaments were in force in more than 30 countries. In India, seats are reserved for historically disadvantaged groups (Scheduled Castes, or SC, and Scheduled Tribes, or ST) in federal or state legislative assemblies and for both historically disadvantaged groups and women at all levels of the Panchayat system, the system of decentralized decision making. On the basis of evidence accumulated about the Indian experience, this paper reviews the case for reservation.

Why mergers reduce profits and raise share prices: a theory of preemptive mergers

Abstract: provide a possible explanation for the empirical puzzle that mergers often reduce profits, but raise share prices. If being an "insider" is better than being an "outsider", firms may merge to preempt their partner merging with a rival. The insiders' stock market value is increased, since the risk of becoming an outsider is eliminated. These results are derived in an endogenous- merger model, predicting the conditions under which mergers occur, when they occur, and how the surplus is shared. (JEL: L13, L41, G34, C78)

Distance to the Efficiency Frontier and Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers

Abstract: Are firms in the former communist economies converging to the world standard? This is the key question in the most challenging economic transformation at the start of this century. While expert opinions differ on what constitutes a successful and complete transition, it is generally acknowledged that transition economies need to raise their productivity substantially in order to catch up with the advanced countries.1 In this chapter, we show how much progress has been made in reducing the distance between the efficiency of domestic firms and the world technology frontier in two transition economies — the Czech Republic and Russia — and we assess whether the presence of foreign firms in these countries contributes to the reduction of the productivity gap (either through knowledge spillovers or competition).