Showing papers in "Macroeconomic Dynamics in 2011"

Nonlinearities and the macroeconomic effects of oil prices

Abstract: This paper reviews some of the literature on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks with a particular focus on possible nonlinearities in the relation and recent new results obtained by Kilian and Vigfusson [http://www-personal.umich/~lkilian/kvsubmission.pdf (2009)].

Consumption and saving over the life cycle: how important are consumer durables?

Abstract: In this paper we investigate whether a standard life-cycle model in which households purchase nondurable consumption and consumer durables and face idiosyncratic income and mortality risk as well as endogenous borrowing constraints can account for two key patterns of consumption and asset holdings over the life cycle. First, consumption expenditures on both durable and nondurable goods are hump-shaped. Second, young households keep very few liquid assets and hold most of their wealth in consumer durables. In our model durables play a dual role: they both provide consumption services and act as collateral for loans. A plausibly parameterized version of the model predicts that the interaction of consumer durables and endogenous borrowing constraints induces durables accumulation early in life and higher consumption of nondurables and accumulation of financial assets later in the life cycle, of an order of magnitude consistent with observed data.

Nonlinearities in the oil price–output relationship

Abstract: It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of asymmetry, however, has not directly tested the hypothesis of an asymmetric transmission of oil price innovations. Moreover, many of the papers quantifying these asymmetric responses are based on censored oil price VAR models that have recently been shown to be invalid. Other studies are based on dynamic correlations in the data and do not distinguish between cause and effect. Recently, several new methods of testing and quantifying asymmetric responses of U.S. real economic activity to positive and negative oil price innovations have been developed. We put this literature into perspective, contrast it with more traditional approaches, highlight directions for further research, and reconcile some seemingly conflicting results reported in the literature.

Oil price shocks and industrial production: Is the relationship linear?

Abstract: This paper tests the three leading specifications of asymmetric and possibly nonlinear feedback from the real price of oil to U.S. industrial production and its sectoral components. We show that the evidence for such feedback is sensitive to the estimation period. Support for a nonlinear model is strongest for samples starting before 1973. Instead, using post-1973 data only, the evidence against symmetry becomes considerably weaker. For example, at the aggregate level, there is no evidence against the hypothesis of symmetric responses to oil price innovations of typical magnitude, consistent with results of Kilian and Vigfusson [Quantitative Economics, 2(3), 419–453 (2011)] for U.S. real GDP. There is strong evidence of asymmetries at the disaggregate level, however, especially for industries that are energy-intensive in production (such as chemicals) or that produce goods that are energy-intensive in use (such as transportation equipment). Our analysis suggests that these asymmetries may be obscured in the aggregate data and highlights the importance of developing multisector models of the transmission of oil price shocks.

The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the effects of oil price uncertainty and its asymmetry on real economic activity in the United States, in the context of a general bivariate framework in which a vector autoregression is modified to accommodate GARCH-inMean errors, as detailed in Engle and Kroner (1995), Grier et al. (2004), and Shields et al. (2005). The model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for real output growth and the change in the real price of oil. Our measure of oil price uncertainty is the conditional variance of the oil price change forecast error. We isolate the effects of volatility in the change in the price of oil and its asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996), Hafner and Herwartz (2006), and van Dijk et al. (2007), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) and Volatility Impulse Response Functions (VIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means and the conditional variances, respectively, of the variables.

Volatility in oil prices and manufacturing activity: an investigation of real options

Abstract: Previous research shows that volatility in oil prices has tended to depress output, as measured by nonresidential investment and GDP. This is interpreted as evidence in support of the theory of real options in capital budgeting decisions, which predicts that uncertainty about, for example, commodity prices will cause firms to delay production and investment. We continue that investigation by analyzing the effect of oil price uncertainty on monthly measures of U.S. firm production related to industries in mining, manufacturing, and utilities. We use a more general specification, an updated sample that includes the increased oil price volatility since 2008, and we control for other nonlinear measures of oil prices. We find additional empirical evidence in support of the predictions of real options theory, and our results indicate that the extreme volatility in oil prices observed in 2008 and 2009 contributed to the severity of the decline in manufacturing activity.

The two interpretations of the beveridge–nelson decomposition

Abstract: The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition calculates trend and cycle for an integrated time series. However, there are two ways to interpret the results from the decomposition. One interpretation is that the optimal long-run forecast (minus any deterministic drift) used to calculate the Beveridge–Nelson trend corresponds to an estimate of an unobserved permanent component. The other interpretation is that the optimal long-run forecast defines an observable permanent component. This paper examines some issues surrounding these two interpretations and provides empirical support for interpreting the Beveridge–Nelson trend as an estimate when considering macroeconomic data.

The period of financial distress in speculative markets: interacting heterogeneous agents and financial constraints

Abstract: We investigate how stochastic asset price dynamics with herding, financial constraints, and variations in switching strategies in heterogeneous agents' decisions explain for the first time the presence of a period of financial distress (PFD) following the peak and preceding the crash of a bubble, documented by Kindleberger (2000, Appendix B) as common among most major historical speculative bubbles. Simulations show the PFD is due to agents' wealth distribution dynamics, selling because of financial constraints after the bubble's peak in relation to switching behavior of agents. An increase in switching tendency increases the length of the PFD and decreases bubble amplitude, while increasing strength of interaction between the agents increases bubble amplitude.

Oil Price Shocks, Firm Uncertainty and Investment

Abstract: This paper seeks to answer the following questions: Do oil price shocks affect firms' investment decisions? Do oil price shocks affect investment decisions differentially depending on firm-specific uncertainty? Over what time horizon do oil price shocks affect high-uncertainty firms? Is the intensity of the oil price shock important, or just its existence? It is found that oil price shocks depress firms' investment decisions, and do so differentially by depressing investment more for more uncertain firms. Oil shocks affect investment for at least the first and second year after the shock. In the short term, the mere existence of a shock drives most of the effect. In the long term, the intensity of the oil shock is also important. Bloom, Bond, and Van Reenan's result [Review of Economic Studies 74, 391–415 (2007)] regarding responsiveness to demand shocks being eroded at more uncertain firms for data on U.K. firms is replicated using data on U.S. firms and persists after oil shocks are considered.

Sectoral Changes and the Increase in Women's Labor Force Participation

Abstract: Throughout the second half of the 20th century, women in the United States decided to move increasingly into the labor market. This paper investigates the growth of the service sector as an explanation for the increase in women's employment. It develops an economic model that can account for the increase in women's employment and the growth of the service sector at the same time. A growth model with two sectors and a home production technology is constructed in order to quantitatively assess the contribution of sectoral productivity differences to the change in women's employment decision. The sectoral productivities are taken from the data. This model demonstrates that a higher rate of productivity growth in market services compared to home services can account for a large fraction of the observed increase in women's labor supply from 1950 to 2005.

On the threat of counterfeiting

Abstract: We study counterfeiting of currency in a search-theoretic model of monetary exchange. In contrast to Nosal and Wallace (2007), we establish that counterfeiting does not pose a threat to the existence of a monetary equilibrium; i.e., a monetary equilibrium exists irrespective of the cost of producing counterfeits, or the ease with which genuine money can be authenticated.

Parameter uncertainty and nonlinear monetary policy rules

Abstract: Empirical evidence suggests that the instrument rule describing the interest rate–setting behavior of the Federal Reserve is nonlinear. This paper shows that optimal monetary policy under parameter uncertainty can motivate this pattern. If the central bank is uncertain about the slope of the Phillips curve and follows a min–max strategy to formulate policy, the interest rate reacts more strongly to inflation when inflation is further away from target. The reason is that the worst case the central bank takes into account is endogenous and depends on the inflation rate and the output gap. As inflation increases, the worst-case perception of the Phillips curve slope becomes larger, thus requiring a stronger interest rate adjustment. Empirical evidence supports this form of nonlinearity for post-1982 U.S. data.

R&d spillovers in an endogenous growth model with physical capital, human capital, and varieties

Abstract: This note shows that Lemma 3 in the paper by Tiago N. Sequeira [R&D spillovers in an endogenous growth model with physical capital, human capital and varieties, Macroeconomic Dynamics (2011)] is insufficient to guarantee stability and provides an alternative sufficient condition for stability.

Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence

Abstract: Oil prices rose sharply prior to the onset of the 2007–2009 recession. Hamilton [in the Palgrave Dictionary of Macroeconomics (2008)] noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increases in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether oil price shocks significantly increase the probability of recessions in a number of countries. Because business cycle turning points generally are not available for other countries, we estimate the turning points together with oil's effect in a Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. We find that, for most countries, oil shocks do affect the likelihood of entering a recession. In particular, for a constant, zero-term spread, an average-sized shock to WTI oil prices increases the probability of recession in the United States by nearly 50 percentage points after one year and nearly 90 percentage points after two years.

Financial Intermediation, Liquidity and Inflation

Abstract: This paper develops a search-theoretic model to study the interaction between banking and monetary policy and how this interaction affects the allocation and welfare. Regarding how banking affects the welfare costs of inflation: First, we find that, with banking, inflation generates smaller welfare costs.

The effect of information technology and human capital on economic growth

Abstract: In this paper we compare the impact of hardware, software and communication equipments, widely referred to as information and communication technologies (ICT) on economic growth among the advanced industrialized countries. We use nonparametric techniques that allow us to directly estimate the elasticity of ICT and human capital for each country and time period. We also examine whether the nonlinear relationship between human capital and growth, found in the literature.

Exchange rate dynamics, asset market structure and the role of the trade elasticity *

Abstract: This paper shows that a canonical flexible price international real business cycle model with incomplete financial markets can address the exchange rate volatility puzzle, the exchange rate persistence puzzle, the consumption real exchange rate anomaly, as well as the quantity anomaly. Crucial for the success of the model is the choice of the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign produced goods. The paper shows that the range of this parameter which allows the model to address these international macroeconomics anomalies is very narrow. Furthermore, the paper highlights an anomalous relationship between real exchange rate persistence and the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign produced goods.

A note on social security welfare with self-control problems

Abstract: We develop an overlapping-generations model for a closed economy with uncertainty on labor income and mortality risk to show that unfunded social security programs may increase welfare in economies where agents are affected by self-control problems a la Gul and Pesendorfer (2001, Econometrica 69, 1403). We depart from the existing literature by setting the agent's preference parameters to match target levels of macro-variables observed in the real U.S. economy. In our approach, economies with tempted and nontempted agents are indistinguishable in terms of aggregate consumption, labor, and saving behavior when social security provides a replacement rate of 40% (as in the United States). This situation makes agents bear costly self-control problems over more years. Our simulations indicate that social security improves welfare with degrees of temptation equal to 11% or higher. A social security program with a replacement rate of 40% finds support for degrees of temptation not lower than 15%.

How should the government allocate its tax revenues between productivity- enhancing and utility- enhancing public goods?

Abstract: We present a fairly standard general equilibrium model of endogenous growth with productive and nonproductive public goods and services. The former enhance private productivity and the latter private utility. We study Ramsey second-best optimal policy, where the latter is summarized by the paths of the income tax rate and the allocation of collected tax revenues between productivity-enhancing and utility-enhancing public expenditures. We show that the properties and macroeconomic implications of the second-best optimal policy (a) are different from the benchmark case of the social planner's first-best allocation and (b) depend crucially on whether public goods and services are subject to congestion.

On the “hot potato” effect of inflation: intensive versus extensive margins

Abstract: Conventional wisdom is that inflation makes people spend money faster, trying to get rid of it like a “hot potato,” and this is a channel through which inflation affects velocity and welfare. Monetary theory with endogenous search intensity seems ideal for studying this. However, in standard models, inflation is a tax that lowers the surplus from monetary exchange and hence reduces search effort. We replace search intensity with a free entry (participation) decision for buyers—i.e., we focus on the extensive rather than intensive margin—and prove buyers always spend their money faster when inflation increases. We also discuss welfare.

Introduction to oil price shocks

Abstract: The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. Hamilton (1983) showed that oil prices had significant predictive content for real economic activity in the United States prior to 1972, whereas Hooker (1996) argued that the estimated linear relations between oil prices and economic activity appear much weaker after 1973. In the debate that followed, several authors suggested that the apparent weakening of the relationship between oil prices and economic activity is illusory, arguing that the true relationship between oil prices and real economic activity is asymmetric, with the correlation between oil price decreases and output significantly different from the correlation between oil price increases and output—see, for example, Mork (1989) and Hamilton (2003).

Entrepreneurial labor and capital taxation

Abstract: This paper considers a Ramsey model of linear taxation for an economy with capital and two kinds of labor. If the government cannot distinguish between the return from capital and the return from entrepreneurial labor, then there will be positive capital income taxation, even in the long run. This happens because the only way to tax entrepreneurial labor is by also taxing capital. Furthermore, under fairly general conditions, the optimal tax on observable labor income is higher than the capital tax, although both are strictly positive. Thus, even though both income taxes are positive, imposing uniform income taxation would lead to additional distortions in the economy.

Search, welfare, and the “hot potato” effect of inflation

Abstract: An increase in in‡ation will cause people to hold less real balances and may cause them to speed up their spending. Virtually all monetary models capture the …rst eect. Few capture the second— 'hot potato'— eect; and those that do associate negative welfare consequences with it. Since, via the in‡ation tax and the hot potato eect, in‡ation has negative eects on welfare, an optimal monetary policy will be characterized by Friedman rule. In the model presented in this paper there is a hot potato eect, but— holding all else constant— the hot potato eect has positive consequences for welfare. As a result, a departure from the Friedman rule will be socially desirable.

Capitalizing r&d expenditures

Abstract: The next international version of the System of National Accounts will recommend that R&D (Research and Development) expenditures be capitalized instead of being immediately expensed as in the present System of National Accounts 1993. An R&D project creates a new technology, which in principle does not depreciate like a reproducible asset. A new technology is, however, subject to obsolescence, which acts in a manner that is somewhat similar to depreciation. The paper looks at the net benefits of an R&D project in the context of a very simple intertemporal general equilibrium model and suggests that R&D expenditures be amortized using the matching principle that has been developed in the accounting literature to match the fixed costs of a project to a stream of future benefits. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the net benefits of a publicly funded project where the results are made freely available to the public.

Long-term oil price forecasts: a new perspective on oil and the macroeconomy

Abstract: We examine how future real GDP growth relates to changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices and to changes in unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices around the forecasts. Forecasts are conducted using a state-space oil market model, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend. Changes in unanticipated fluctuations and changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices sum to real oil price changes. We find that these two components have distinctly different relationships with future real GDP growth. Positive and negative changes in the unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices correlate with asymmetric responses of future real GDP growth. In comparison, changes in the forecasted long-term average are smaller in magnitude but are more influential on real GDP. Persistent upward revisions of forecasts in the 2000s had a substantial negative impact on real GDP growth, according to our estimates.

Stochastic convergence across u.s. states

Abstract: Unit root tests suggest that shocks to relative income across U.S. states are permanent, which contradicts the stochastic convergence hypothesis. We suggest that this finding is due to the well-known low-power problem of unit root tests in the presence of high persistence (i.e., low speed of convergence) and small samples. First, interval estimates of the largest autoregressive root for the relative income in the 48 U.S. contiguous states are quite wide, including many alternatives that are persistent but stable. Second, interval estimates of the half-life of relative income shocks that are robust to high persistence and small samples suggest that in most cases shocks die out within zero to ten years. Third, estimation of a fractionally integrated model for the relative income process suggests strong evidence of mean reversion in the data. These findings provide ample support for the stochastic convergence hypothesis.

Random matching and money in the neoclassical growth model: some analytical results

Abstract: I use the monetary version of the neoclassical growth model developed by Aruoba, Waller and Wright (2008) to study the properties of the model when there is exogenous growth. I …rst consider the planner’s problem, then the equilibrium outcome in a monetary economy. I do so by …rst using proportional bargaining to determine the terms of trade and then consider competitive price taking. I obtain closed form solutions for the balanced growth path of all variables in all cases. I then derive closed form solutions for the transition paths under the assumption of full depreciation and, in the monetary economy, a non-stationary interest rate policy.

Endogenous growth, backstop technology adoption, and optimal jumps

Abstract: This paper analyzes a two-phase endogenous growth model in which the adoption of a backstop technology (e.g., solar) yields a sustained supply of essential energy inputs previously obtained from exhaustible resources (e.g., oil). Growth is knowledge-driven and the optimal timing of technology switching is determined by welfare maximization. The optimal path exhibits discrete jumps in endogenous variables: technology switching implies sudden reductions in consumption and output, an increase in the growth rate, and instantaneous adjustments in saving rates. Due to the positive growth effect, it is optimal to implement the new technology when its current consumption benefits are substantially lower than those generated by old technologies.

U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis

Abstract: This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI-based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation. Results suggest that wavelet-based measures perform better, and sometimes much better, than the traditional approaches. These results suggest that wavelet methods are a promising avenue for future research on core inflation.

On the Measurement of Total Factor Productivity: A Latent Variable Approach

Abstract: Despite the important role that total factor productivity (TFP) has played in the growth literature, few attempts have been made to change the methodology to estimate it. This paper proposes a methodology based on a state-space model to estimate TFP and its determinants. With this methodology, it is possible to reduce the measurement of our ignorance. As a by-product, this estimate yields the capital share in output and the long-term growth rate. When applied to Chile, the estimation shows a capital share around 0.5 and long-term growth of TFP around 1%. Capital accumulation tends to explain the growth rate in the fast growth periods under the econometric estimation more than the traditional growth accounting methodology.