Showing papers in "Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change in 1998"

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Abstract: ▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities to extreme storms: the case of revere, ma., usa

Abstract: Climate change may affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of severe coastal storms. Concurrent sea-level rise would raise the baseline of flooding during such events. Meanwhile, social vulnerability factors such as poverty and disability hinder the ability to cope with storms and storm damage. While physical changes are likely to remain scientifically uncertain into the foreseeable future, the ability to mitigate potential impacts from coastal flooding may be fostered by better understanding the interplay of social and physical factors that produce human vulnerability. This study does so by integrating the classic causal model of hazards with social, environmental, and spatial dynamics that lead to the differential ability of people to cope with hazards. It uses Census data, factor analysis, data envelopment analysis, and floodplain maps to understand the compound social and physical vulnerability of coastal residents in the city of Revere, MA, USA.

Sectoral trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract: Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. We show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

Abstract: This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers in this special issue give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol: What Does It Mean for Project-Based Climate Change Mitigation?

Abstract: The Kyoto Protocol effectively ends the Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase. However, it is premature to conclude that Articles 6 and 12 of the Protocol vindicate joint implementation and successfully conclude the AIJ pilot phase. Rather, Articles 6 and 12 can be seen as part of the price developing countries felt they had to pay to obtain a Protocol. Debate over Articles 6 and 12 is likely to be as contentious as the JI/AIJ debates that preceded it. Indeed, the AIJ pilot phase has not answered many concerns posed by developing countries and other interest groups. While companies and countries participating in AIJ have had wide latitude to pursue almost any projects they wished, it remains to be seen how much of this flexibility will be preserved as Articles 6 and 12 become operational. This will determine whether the importance and cost-effectiveness originally predicted for the joint implementation concept comes to pass. A review of the JI and AIJ literature suggests many potential stumbling blocks to achieving large-scale and cost-effective emissions reductions through project-based mitigation efforts under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper identifies these stumbling blocks and systematically assesses their potential implications. The Greenhouse Gas Offset Cost Assessment and Decisionmaking Model (GGOCAD©) is used to qualitatively as well as quantitatively evaluate the importance of key criteria and methodological decisions under Articles 6 and 12. It is easy to develop scenarios in which project-based mitigation through Articles 6 and 12 would not be permitted to contribute substantially to achievement of countries’ obligations under Article 3. Overcoming the challenges facing project-based mitigation efforts is important to achieving the larger goals of the Kyoto Protocol.

A Review of Global and Regional Sulfur Emission Scenarios

Abstract: The paper reviews base year emission inventories, driving forces, and long-term scenarios of sulfur emissions as background material for developing a new set of IPCC emissions scenarios. The paper concludes that future sulfur emission trends will be spatially heterogeneous (decline in OECD countries, rapid increase particularly in Asia) and therefore cannot be modeled at a global scale only. In view of ecosystems and food production impacts future sulfur emissions will need to be increasingly controlled also outside OECD countries. As a result, future sulfur emissions are likely to remain significantly below the values projected in the previous IPCC IS92 high emissions scenarios.

Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century

Abstract: A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

World Population Projections for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

Abstract: A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.

The value of human life in global warming impacts

Abstract: A recent article in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change by Fankhauser and Tol makes monetary estimates of potential global warming damages that assign higher value to each life lost in wealthy countries as opposed to poor ones. Regardless of how much sense such a procedure may make to GDP-oriented economists, it is morally unacceptable to most of the world and needlessly damages efforts to build support for any global warming mitigation and adaptation strategies that may be proposed. A better solution would be to use a money value of zero for human life losses and report separately the monetary and human life costs of warming (and benefits of mitigation).

Future Trends of Land-Use Emissions of Major Greenhouse Gases

Abstract: Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.

The Value of Life in Global Warming Impacts - A Comment

Abstract: Philip Fearnside (1998) raises the by now well-known issue of how to assess climate-change induced changes in human mortality. Others did so before (e.g., Hohmeyer, 1996; Massood, 1995; Meyer, 1995; Pearce, 1995), and we have participated in the ensuing debate with a series of articles (e.g. Fankhauser et al., 1997, 1998). A thorough discussion of this delicate issue is important, though, and we are grateful for the opportunity to respond to Fearnside’s comments. Fearnside puts forward a new way of dealing with mortality risks. He proposes to report climate change impacts as $ X + N deaths. This would presumably imply decision making on the basis of a simple form of multi-criteria analysis. Some analysts may feel more comfortable within this framework. But in our opinion it ducks the issue. The issue is whether we should spend $ Y on emission abatement to avoid some of the N deaths, and how these avoided deaths compare to $ Y not spent on education, health care, or luxury cars. Making judgements on this issue – we would argue – requires a careful trade-off between the pros and cons of the suggested course of action. To assure transparency in this trade-off, accountability for the decision taken, and consistency with decisions on other projects, the trade-off has to be made as explicit as possible. This requires quantification of all aspects, and expression of them in a common metric. Fearnside’s suggestion does not provide this. Economists typically use money as they common metric. This is simply a choice of convenience, however. There is nothing deeper to it. Unfortunately, Fearnside’s note also repeats some of the misconceptions of the earlier debate. In particular he completely misreads what is actually meant by the term ‘value of a statistical life’. Nobody, not even economists, would try to value the ‘pain [people feel] on losing their loved ones’. What we can do, however, is observe, and learn from, the risks people take in their every day lives. The difference is crucial. We neither valued life as such, nor were values ‘decided by researchers’ as Fearnside claims. The values of a statistical life used in our and similar work is based on empiricial studies of how people value safety themselves. This is consistent with the belief of most economists that social decisions should

Economic and Technological Development in Climate Scenarios

Abstract: Recent years have seen continuing debate about the factors underlying the process of economic development, but increasing consensus that technology and innovation play a key role. Increasing energy supplies are seen by some observers as fundamentally necessary for economic development, while others believe that a process of dematerialisation is underway in a shift to a "knowledge-based" economy. Energy futures will depend heavily on the process of technology innovation and transfer, which is affected by investment in research and development (R&D) and education, management styles and culture, market and regulatory incentives, perceived human needs, and many other factors. The primary energy carbon dioxide (CO2) emission intensity of the world economy has fallen by only about 1.1% per year in the last 20 years. However, circumstances are imaginable where energy intensity could decline by 2-3% per year in the long term. It is also possible that energy intensity could increase.

On the Effects of Social and Economic Policies on Future Carbon Emissions

Abstract: Published scenarios of carbon emissions vary over a 40:1 range, and vary greatly even when the possible effects of future climate change policies are ignored. Differences in assumptions about how social and economic policies will affect the rates of economic growth throughout the world, population growth, international trade and investment, the rate of improvement in energy efficiency, and innovations and developments in non-carbon technologies are among the main reasons for such huge differences - alongside the considerable uncertainties that remain about the structural forms and parameters of the economic models used for making projections. The following analysis shows that a low carbon emissions scenario is fully consistent with developing countries achieving economic prosperity and the rich countries increasing theirs. It would depend on the emergence of non-carbon options, such as renewable energy, and this is indeed more likely to happen with favourable conditions for economic growth and innovation.

Factors Affecting Future Emissions of Methane from Non Land Use Sources

Abstract: Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.