Showing papers in "Nature Ecology and Evolution in 2019"

The global burden of pathogens and pests on major food crops.

Abstract: Crop pathogens and pests reduce the yield and quality of agricultural production. They cause substantial economic losses and reduce food security at household, national and global levels. Quantitative, standardized information on crop losses is difficult to compile and compare across crops, agroecosystems and regions. Here, we report on an expert-based assessment of crop health, and provide numerical estimates of yield losses on an individual pathogen and pest basis for five major crops globally and in food security hotspots. Our results document losses associated with 137 pathogens and pests associated with wheat, rice, maize, potato and soybean worldwide. Our yield loss (range) estimates at a global level and per hotspot for wheat (21.5% (10.1–28.1%)), rice (30.0% (24.6–40.9%)), maize (22.5% (19.5–41.1%)), potato (17.2% (8.1–21.0%)) and soybean (21.4% (11.0–32.4%)) suggest that the highest losses are associated with food-deficit regions with fast-growing populations, and frequently with emerging or re-emerging pests and diseases. Our assessment highlights differences in impacts among crop pathogens and pests and among food security hotspots. This analysis contributes critical information to prioritize crop health management to improve the sustainability of agroecosystems in delivering services to societies. An expert elicitation survey estimates yield losses for the five major food crops worldwide, suggesting that the highest losses are associated with food-deficit regions with fast-growing populations and frequently with emerging or re-emerging pests and diseases.

Global buffering of temperatures under forest canopies

Abstract: Macroclimate warming is often assumed to occur within forests despite the potential for tree cover to modify microclimates. Here, using paired measurements, we compared the temperatures under the canopy versus in the open at 98 sites across 5 continents. We show that forests function as a thermal insulator, cooling the understory when ambient temperatures are hot and warming the understory when ambient temperatures are cold. The understory versus open temperature offset is magnified as temperatures become more extreme and is of greater magnitude than the warming of land temperatures over the past century. Tree canopies may thus reduce the severity of warming impacts on forest biodiversity and functioning.

Insights from genomes into the evolutionary importance and prevalence of hybridization in nature.

Abstract: Hybridization is an evolutionary phenomenon that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Prior to the advent of whole-genome sequencing, it was clear that hybridization had played a role in the evolutionary history of many extant taxa, particularly plants. The extent to which hybridization has contributed to the evolution of Earth's biodiversity has, however, been the topic of much debate. Analyses of whole genomes are providing further insight into this evolutionary problem. Recent studies have documented ancient hybridization in a diverse array of taxa including mammals, birds, fish, fungi, and insects. Evidence for adaptive introgression is being documented in an increasing number of systems, though demonstrating the adaptive function of introgressed genomic regions remains difficult. And finally, several new homoploid hybrid speciation events have been reported. Here we review the current state of the field and specifically evaluate the additional insights gained from having access to whole-genome data and the challenges that remain with respect to understanding the evolutionary relevance and frequency of ancient hybridization, adaptive introgression, and hybrid speciation in nature.

Air temperature optima of vegetation productivity across global biomes.

Abstract: The global distribution of the optimum air temperature for ecosystem-level gross primary productivity ([Formula: see text]) is poorly understood, despite its importance for ecosystem carbon uptake under future warming. We provide empirical evidence for the existence of such an optimum, using measurements of in situ eddy covariance and satellite-derived proxies, and report its global distribution. [Formula: see text] is consistently lower than the physiological optimum temperature of leaf-level photosynthetic capacity, which typically exceeds 30 °C. The global average [Formula: see text] is estimated to be 23 ± 6 °C, with warmer regions having higher [Formula: see text] values than colder regions. In tropical forests in particular, [Formula: see text] is close to growing-season air temperature and is projected to fall below it under all scenarios of future climate, suggesting a limited safe operating space for these ecosystems under future warming.

A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change

Abstract: Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO2 treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO2. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.

Essential biodiversity variables for mapping and monitoring species populations

Abstract: Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Here we synthesize the types of data and approaches that are required to achieve such an integration and conceptualize ‘essential biodiversity variables’ (EBVs) for a unified global capture of species populations in space and time. The inherent heterogeneity and sparseness of raw biodiversity data are overcome by the use of models and remotely sensed covariates to inform predictions that are contiguous in space and time and global in extent. We define the species population EBVs as a space–time–species–gram (cube) that simultaneously addresses the distribution or abundance of multiple species, with its resolution adjusted to represent available evidence and acceptable levels of uncertainty. This essential information enables the monitoring of single or aggregate spatial or taxonomic units at scales relevant to research and decision-making. When combined with ancillary environmental or species data, this fundamental species population information directly underpins a range of biodiversity and ecosystem function indicators. The unified concept we present links disparate data to downstream uses and informs a vision for species population monitoring in which data collection is closely integrated with models and infrastructure to support effective biodiversity assessment. Changes in species distribution and abundance can be captured using essential biodiversity variables (EBVs). Here, the authors synthesize the data and approaches needed for EBVs that allow monitoring of populations in both space and time.

A systems approach reveals urban pollinator hotspots and conservation opportunities

Abstract: Urban areas are often perceived to have lower biodiversity than the wider countryside, but a few small-scale studies suggest that some urban land uses can support substantial pollinator populations. We present a large-scale, well-replicated study of floral resources and pollinators in 360 sites incorporating all major land uses in four British cities. Using a systems approach, we developed Bayesian network models integrating pollinator dispersal and resource switching to estimate city-scale effects of management interventions on plant–pollinator community robustness to species loss. We show that residential gardens and allotments (community gardens) are pollinator ‘hotspots’: gardens due to their extensive area, and allotments due to their high pollinator diversity and leverage on city-scale plant–pollinator community robustness. Household income was positively associated with pollinator abundance in gardens, highlighting the influence of socioeconomic factors. Our results underpin urban planning recommendations to enhance pollinator conservation, using increasing city-scale community robustness as our measure of success.

Increasing impacts of land use on biodiversity and carbon sequestration driven by population and economic growth

Abstract: Biodiversity and ecosystem service losses driven by land-use change are expected to intensify as a growing and more affluent global population requires more agricultural and forestry products, and teleconnections in the global economy lead to increasing remote environmental responsibility. By combining global biophysical and economic models, we show that, between the years 2000 and 2011, overall population and economic growth resulted in increasing total impacts on bird diversity and carbon sequestration globally, despite a reduction of land-use impacts per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The exceptions were North America and Western Europe, where there was a reduction of forestry and agriculture impacts on nature accentuated by the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Biodiversity losses occurred predominantly in Central and Southern America, Africa and Asia with international trade an important and growing driver. In 2011, 33% of Central and Southern America and 26% of Africa's biodiversity impacts were driven by consumption in other world regions. Overall, cattle farming is the major driver of biodiversity loss, but oil seed production showed the largest increases in biodiversity impacts. Forestry activities exerted the highest impact on carbon sequestration, and also showed the largest increase in the 2000-2011 period. Our results suggest that to address the biodiversity crisis, governments should take an equitable approach recognizing remote responsibility, and promote a shift of economic development towards activities with low biodiversity impacts.

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches.

Abstract: Climate change has often led to unequal shifts in the seasonal timing (phenology) of interacting species, such as consumers and their resource, leading to phenological ‘mismatches’. Mismatches occur when the time at which a consumer species’s demands for a resource are high does not match with the period when this resource is abundant. Here, we review the evolutionary and population-level consequences of such mismatches and how these depend on other ecological factors, such as additional drivers of selection and density-dependent recruitment. This review puts the research on phenological mismatches into a conceptual framework, applies this framework beyond consumer–resource interactions and illustrates this framework using examples drawn from the vast body of literature on mismatches. Finally, we point out priority questions for research on this key impact of climate change. A review of the consequences of phenological mismatches from a population and evolutionary perspective, including a conceptual framework and priority questions for future research.

Global dataset shows geography and life form predict modern plant extinction and rediscovery

Abstract: Most people can name a mammal or bird that has become extinct in recent centuries, but few can name a recently extinct plant. We present a comprehensive, global analysis of modern extinction in plants. Almost 600 species have become extinct, at a higher rate than background extinction, but almost as many have been erroneously declared extinct and then been rediscovered. Reports of extinction on islands, in the tropics and of shrubs, trees or species with narrow ranges are least likely to be refuted by rediscovery. Plant extinctions endanger other organisms, ecosystems and human well-being, and must be understood for effective conservation planning.

Strategic approaches to restoring ecosystems can triple conservation gains and halve costs

Abstract: International commitments for ecosystem restoration add up to one-quarter of the world’s arable land. Fulfilling them would ease global challenges such as climate change and biodiversity decline but could displace food production and impose financial costs on farmers. Here, we present a restoration prioritization approach capable of revealing these synergies and trade-offs, incorporating ecological and economic efficiencies of scale and modelling specific policy options. Using an actual large-scale restoration target of the Atlantic Forest hotspot, we show that our approach can deliver an eightfold increase in cost-effectiveness for biodiversity conservation compared with a baseline of non-systematic restoration. A compromise solution avoids 26% of the biome’s current extinction debt of 2,864 plant and animal species (an increase of 257% compared with the baseline). Moreover, this solution sequesters 1 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent (a 105% increase) while reducing costs by US$28 billion (a 57% decrease). Seizing similar opportunities elsewhere would offer substantial contributions to some of the greatest challenges for humankind. A restoration prioritization approach applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot considers 362 scenarios for synergies and trade-offs between ecological and economic costs, benefits and scales.

The systematic dismantling of Brazilian environmental laws risks losses on all fronts

Abstract: The inauguration of Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil’s new president has heralded a rapid acceleration of the erosion of environmental protection measures in the country. Brazil’s scientific community should rally to provide evidence that this is economically and socially unwise.

Synthetic microbiota reveal priority effects and keystone strains in the Arabidopsis phyllosphere

Abstract: Multicellular organisms, including plants, are colonized by microorganisms, some of which are beneficial to growth and health. The assembly rules for establishing plant microbiota are not well understood, and neither is the extent to which their members interact. We conducted drop-out and late introduction experiments by inoculating Arabidopsis thaliana with synthetic communities from a resource of 62 native bacterial strains to test how arrival order shapes community structure. As a read-out we tracked the relative abundance of all strains in the phyllosphere of individual plants. Our results showed that community assembly is historically contingent and subject to priority effects. Missing strains could, to various degrees, invade an already established microbiota, which was itself resistant and remained largely unaffected by latecomers. Additionally, our results indicate that individual strains of Proteobacteria (Sphingomonas, Rhizobium) and Actinobacteria (Microbacterium, Rhodococcus) have the greatest potential to affect community structure as keystone species. Conducting a series of removal experiments using synthetic leaf-inhabiting bacterial communities, the authors identify several keystone strains and show that priority effects drive phyllosphere community assembly.

Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship

Abstract: Sustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'corporate biosphere stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts.

Megaphylogeny resolves global patterns of mushroom evolution

Abstract: Mushroom-forming fungi (Agaricomycetes) have the greatest morphological diversity and complexity of any group of fungi. They have radiated into most niches and fulfil diverse roles in the ecosystem, including wood decomposers, pathogens or mycorrhizal mutualists. Despite the importance of mushroom-forming fungi, large-scale patterns of their evolutionary history are poorly known, in part due to the lack of a comprehensive and dated molecular phylogeny. Here, using multigene and genome-based data, we assemble a 5,284-species phylogenetic tree and infer ages and broad patterns of speciation/extinction and morphological innovation in mushroom-forming fungi. Agaricomycetes started a rapid class-wide radiation in the Jurassic, coinciding with the spread of (sub)tropical coniferous forests and a warming climate. A possible mass extinction, several clade-specific adaptive radiations and morphological diversification of fruiting bodies followed during the Cretaceous and the Paleogene, convergently giving rise to the classic toadstool morphology, with a cap, stalk and gills (pileate-stipitate morphology). This morphology is associated with increased rates of lineage diversification, suggesting it represents a key innovation in the evolution of mushroom-forming fungi. The increase in mushroom diversity started during the Mesozoic-Cenozoic radiation event, an era of humid climate when terrestrial communities dominated by gymnosperms and reptiles were also expanding.

Food web rewiring in a changing world.

Abstract: Climate change is asymmetrically altering environmental conditions in space, from local to global scales, creating novel heterogeneity. Here, we argue that this novel heterogeneity will drive mobile generalist consumer species to rapidly respond through their behaviour in ways that broadly and predictably reorganize — or rewire — food webs. We use existing theory and data from diverse ecosystems to show that the rapid behavioural responses of generalists to climate change rewire food webs in two distinct and critical ways. First, mobile generalist species are redistributing into systems where they were previously absent and foraging on new prey, resulting in topological rewiring — a change in the patterning of food webs due to the addition or loss of connections. Second, mobile generalist species, which navigate between habitats and ecosystems to forage, will shift their relative use of differentially altered habitats and ecosystems, causing interaction strength rewiring — changes that reroute energy and carbon flows through existing food web connections and alter the food web’s interaction strengths. We then show that many species with shared traits can exhibit unified aggregate behavioural responses to climate change, which may allow us to understand the rewiring of whole food webs. We end by arguing that generalists’ responses present a powerful and underutilized approach to understanding and predicting the consequences of climate change and may serve as much-needed early warning signals for monitoring the looming impacts of global climate change on entire ecosystems. Climate change is spatially asymmetrical and so will alter the behaviour of generalist consumer species, affecting food webs in two ways. Movement into novel ecosystems will affect the topology of food webs, while changes within an ecosystem will affect interaction strengths.

Sex-dependent dominance maintains migration supergene in rainbow trout

Abstract: Males and females often differ in their fitness optima for shared traits that have a shared genetic basis, leading to sexual conflict. Morphologically differentiated sex chromosomes can resolve this conflict and protect sexually antagonistic variation, but they accumulate deleterious mutations. However, how sexual conflict is resolved in species that lack differentiated sex chromosomes is largely unknown. Here we present a chromosome-anchored genome assembly for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and characterize a 55-Mb double-inversion supergene that mediates sex-specific migratory tendency through sex-dependent dominance reversal, an alternative mechanism for resolving sexual conflict. The double inversion contains key photosensory, circadian rhythm, adiposity and sex-related genes and displays a latitudinal frequency cline, indicating environmentally dependent selection. Our results show sex-dependent dominance reversal across a large autosomal supergene, a mechanism for sexual conflict resolution capable of protecting sexually antagonistic variation while avoiding the homozygous lethality and deleterious mutations associated with typical heteromorphic sex chromosomes.

Integrated records of environmental change and evolution challenge the Cambrian Explosion

Abstract: The 'Cambrian Explosion' describes the rapid increase in animal diversity and abundance, as manifest in the fossil record, between ~540 and 520 million years ago (Ma). This event, however, is nested within a far more ancient record of macrofossils extending at least into the late Ediacaran at ~571 Ma. The evolutionary events documented during the Ediacaran-Cambrian interval coincide with geochemical evidence for the modernisation of Earth's biogeochemical cycles. Holistic integration of fossil and geochemical records leads us to challenge the notion that the Ediacaran and Cambrian worlds were markedly distinct, and places biotic and environmental change within a longer-term narrative. We propose that the evolution of metazoans may have been facilitated by a series of dynamic and global changes in redox conditions and nutrient supply, which, potentially together with biotic feedbacks, enabled turnover events that sustained multiple phases of radiation. We argue that early metazoan diversification should be recast as a series of successive, transitional radiations that extended from the late Ediacaran and continued through the early Palaeozoic. We conclude that while the Cambrian Explosion represents a radiation of crown-group bilaterians, it was simply one phase amongst several metazoan radiations, some older and some younger.

Better restoration policies are needed to conserve mangrove ecosystems

Abstract: Current mangrove planting schemes aimed at reversing global losses are prioritising short-term increases in area over long-term establishment. Without sound, evidence-based restoration policies, this approach could accelerate the demise of mangrove forests and the ecosystem services they provide.

The global biogeography of polyploid plants

Abstract: Deciphering the global distribution of polyploid plants is fundamental for understanding plant evolution and ecology. Many factors have been hypothesized to affect the uneven distribution of polyploid plants across the globe. Nevertheless, the lack of large comparative datasets has restricted such studies to local floras and to narrow taxonomical scopes, limiting our understanding of the underlying drivers of polyploid plant distribution. We present a map portraying the worldwide polyploid frequencies, based on extensive spatial data coupled with phylogeny-based polyploidy inference for tens of thousands of species. This allowed us to assess the potential global drivers affecting polyploid distribution. Our data reveal a clear latitudinal trend, with polyploid frequency increasing away from the equator. Climate, especially temperature, appears to be the most influential predictor of polyploid distribution. However, we find this effect to be mostly indirect, mediated predominantly by variation in plant lifeforms and, to a lesser extent, by taxonomical composition and species richness. Thus, our study presents an emerging view of polyploid distribution that highlights attributes that facilitate the establishment of new polyploid lineages by providing polyploids with sufficient time (that is, perenniality) and space (low species richness) to compete with pre-adapted diploid relatives.

Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world.

Abstract: There is growing concern over tipping points arising in ecosystems because of the crossing of environmental thresholds. Tipping points lead to abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states, potentially incurring high societal costs. Trait variation in populations is central to the biotic feedbacks that maintain alternative ecosystem states, as they govern the responses of populations to environmental change that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystem states. However, we know little about how evolutionary changes in trait distributions over time affect the occurrence of tipping points and even less about how big-scale ecological shifts reciprocally interact with trait dynamics. We argue that interactions between ecological and evolutionary processes should be taken into account in order to understand the balance of feedbacks governing tipping points in nature.

Social–environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene

Abstract: Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages—the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.

Animal life history is shaped by the pace of life and the distribution of age-specific mortality and reproduction

Abstract: Animals exhibit an extraordinary diversity of life history strategies. These realized combinations of survival, development and reproduction are predicted to be constrained by physiological limitations and by trade-offs in resource allocation. However, our understanding of these patterns is restricted to a few taxonomic groups. Using demographic data from 121 species, ranging from humans to sponges, we test whether such trade-offs universally shape animal life history strategies. We show that, after accounting for body mass and phylogenetic relatedness, 71% of the variation in animal life history strategies can be explained by life history traits associated with the fast-slow continuum (pace of life) and with a second axis defined by the distribution of age-specific mortality hazards and the spread of reproduction. While we found that life history strategies are associated with metabolic rate and ecological modes of life, surprisingly similar life history strategies can be found across the phylogenetic and physiological diversity of animals.

Ancient genomes indicate population replacement in Early Neolithic Britain

Abstract: The roles of migration, admixture and acculturation in the European transition to farming have been debated for over 100 years. Genome-wide ancient DNA studies indicate predominantly Aegean ancestry for continental Neolithic farmers, but also variable admixture with local Mesolithic hunter-gatherers. Neolithic cultures first appear in Britain circa 4000 BC, a millennium after they appeared in adjacent areas of continental Europe. The pattern and process of this delayed British Neolithic transition remain unclear. We assembled genome-wide data from 6 Mesolithic and 67 Neolithic individuals found in Britain, dating 8500-2500 BC. Our analyses reveal persistent genetic affinities between Mesolithic British and Western European hunter-gatherers. We find overwhelming support for agriculture being introduced to Britain by incoming continental farmers, with small, geographically structured levels of hunter-gatherer ancestry. Unlike other European Neolithic populations, we detect no resurgence of hunter-gatherer ancestry at any time during the Neolithic in Britain. Genetic affinities with Iberian Neolithic individuals indicate that British Neolithic people were mostly descended from Aegean farmers who followed the Mediterranean route of dispersal. We also infer considerable variation in pigmentation levels in Europe by circa 6000 BC.

Multiple episodes of interbreeding between Neanderthal and modern humans

Abstract: Neanderthals and anatomically modern humans overlapped geographically for a period of over 30,000 years following human migration out of Africa. During this period, Neanderthals and humans interbred, as evidenced by Neanderthal portions of the genome carried by non-African individuals today. A key observation is that the proportion of Neanderthal ancestry is ~12–20% higher in East Asian individuals relative to European individuals. Here, we explore various demographic models that could explain this observation. These include distinguishing between a single admixture event and multiple Neanderthal contributions to either population, and the hypothesis that reduced Neanderthal ancestry in modern Europeans resulted from more recent admixture with a ghost population that lacked a Neanderthal ancestry component (the ‘dilution’ hypothesis). To summarize the asymmetric pattern of Neanderthal allele frequencies, we compiled the joint fragment frequency spectrum of European and East Asian Neanderthal fragments and compared it with both analytical theory and data simulated under various models of admixture. Using maximum-likelihood and machine learning, we found that a simple model of a single admixture did not fit the empirical data, and instead favour a model of multiple episodes of gene flow into both European and East Asian populations. These findings indicate a longer-term, more complex interaction between humans and Neanderthals than was previously appreciated. Studying the asymmetry in the pattern of Neanderthal introgression in modern human genomes between individuals of East Asian and European ancestry, the authors show recurrent gene flow from Neanderthals into modern humans.

A global synthesis of biodiversity responses to glacier retreat.

Abstract: Glaciers cover about 10% of the Earth's land area but they are retreating rapidly and many will disappear within decades. Glacier retreat is a worldwide phenomenon increasing the threat to water resources, biodiversity and associated ecosystem services for hundreds of millions of people, mostly in developing countries. Our understanding of the ecological consequences of glacier retreat has improved significantly in the past decade, but we still lack a comprehensive framework for predicting biodiversity responses to glacier retreat globally, across diverse habitats and taxa. By conducting a global meta-analysis of 234 published studies, including more than 2,100 biodiversity surveys covering marine, freshwater and terrestrial assemblages, we show here that taxon abundance and richness generally increase at lower levels of glacier influence, suggesting that diversity increases locally as glaciers retreat. However, significant response heterogeneity was observed between study sites and species: 6-11% of the studied populations, particularly in fjords, would lose out from glacier retreat. Most of the losers are specialist species, efficient dispersers, uniquely adapted to glacial conditions, whereas the winners are generalist taxa colonizing from downstream. Our global analyses also identify key geographic variables (glacier cover, isolation and melting rates, but not latitude or altitude) and species traits (body size and trophic position) likely to modulate taxon sensitivity to glacial retreat. Finally, we propose mechanistic diagrams for model development to predict biodiversity change following glacier retreat.

Predator traits determine food-web architecture across ecosystems

Abstract: Predator-prey interactions in natural ecosystems generate complex food webs that have a simple universal body-size architecture where predators are systematically larger than their prey. Food-web theory shows that the highest predator-prey body-mass ratios found in natural food webs may be especially important because they create weak interactions with slow dynamics that stabilize communities against perturbations and maintain ecosystem functioning. Identifying these vital interactions in real communities typically requires arduous identification of interactions in complex food webs. Here, we overcome this obstacle by developing predator-trait models to predict average body-mass ratios based on a database comprising 290 food webs from freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems across all continents. We analysed how species traits constrain body-size architecture by changing the slope of the predator-prey body-mass scaling. Across ecosystems, we found high body-mass ratios for predator groups with specific trait combinations including (1) small vertebrates and (2) large swimming or flying predators. Including the metabolic and movement types of predators increased the accuracy of predicting which species are engaged in high body-mass ratio interactions. We demonstrate that species traits explain striking patterns in the body-size architecture of natural food webs that underpin the stability and functioning of ecosystems, paving the way for community-level management of the most complex natural ecosystems.

Underrepresented faculty play a disproportionate role in advancing diversity and inclusion.

Abstract: A diverse and inclusive scientific community is more productive, innovative and impactful, yet ecology and evolutionary biology continues to be dominated by white male faculty. We quantify faculty engagement in activities related to diversity and inclusion and identify factors that either facilitate or hinder participation. Through a nationwide survey, we show that faculty with underrepresented identities disproportionally engage in diversity and inclusion activities, yet such engagement was not considered important for tenure. Faculty perceived time and funding as major limitations, which suggests that institutions should reallocate resources and reconsider how faculty are evaluated to promote shared responsibility in advancing diversity and inclusion.

A checklist for maximizing reproducibility of ecological niche models

Abstract: Reporting specific modelling methods and metadata is essential to the reproducibility of ecological studies, yet guidelines rarely exist regarding what information should be noted. Here, we address this issue for ecological niche modelling or species distribution modelling, a rapidly developing toolset in ecology used across many aspects of biodiversity science. Our quantitative review of the recent literature reveals a general lack of sufficient information to fully reproduce the work. Over two-thirds of the examined studies neglected to report the version or access date of the underlying data, and only half reported model parameters. To address this problem, we propose adopting a checklist to guide studies in reporting at least the minimum information necessary for ecological niche modelling reproducibility, offering a straightforward way to balance efficiency and accuracy. We encourage the ecological niche modelling community, as well as journal reviewers and editors, to utilize and further develop this framework to facilitate and improve the reproducibility of future work. The proposed checklist framework is generalizable to other areas of ecology, especially those utilizing biodiversity data, environmental data and statistical modelling, and could also be adopted by a broader array of disciplines.

Direct estimation of mutations in great apes reconciles phylogenetic dating.

Abstract: The human mutation rate per generation estimated from trio sequencing has revealed an almost linear relationship with the age of the father and the age of the mother, with fathers contributing about three times as many mutations per year as mothers. The yearly trio-based mutation rate estimate of around 0.43 × 10−9 is markedly lower than previous indirect estimates of about 1 × 10−9 per year from phylogenetic comparisons of the great apes calibrated by fossil evidence. This suggests either a slowdown in the accumulation of mutations per year in the human lineage over the past 10 million years or an inaccurate interpretation of the fossil record. Here we inferred de novo mutations in chimpanzee, gorilla, and orangutan parent-offspring trios. Extrapolating the relationship between the mutation rate and the age of parents from humans to these other great apes, we estimated that each species has higher mutation rates per year by factors of 1.50 ± 0.10, 1.51 ± 0.23, and 1.42 ± 0.22 for chimpanzee, gorilla, and orangutan, respectively, and by a factor of 1.48 ± 0.08 for the three species combined. These estimates suggest an appreciable slowdown in the yearly mutation rate in the human lineage that is likely to be recent as genome comparisons almost adhere to a molecular clock. If the nonhuman rates rather than the human rate are extrapolated over the phylogeny of the great apes, we estimate divergence and speciation times that are much more in line with the fossil record and the biogeography. Analysis of de novo mutations in sequences of great ape parent-offspring trios suggests that mutation rates slowed down in the recent human lineage, reconciling dates from the fossil record.