Showing papers in "Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes in 1991"
TL;DR: Ajzen, 1985, 1987, this article reviewed the theory of planned behavior and some unresolved issues and concluded that the theory is well supported by empirical evidence and that intention to perform behaviors of different kinds can be predicted with high accuracy from attitudes toward the behavior, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control; and these intentions, together with perceptions of behavioral control, account for considerable variance in actual behavior.
Abstract: Research dealing with various aspects of* the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1985, 1987) is reviewed, and some unresolved issues are discussed. In broad terms, the theory is found to be well supported by empirical evidence. Intentions to perform behaviors of different kinds can be predicted with high accuracy from attitudes toward the behavior, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control; and these intentions, together with perceptions of behavioral control, account for considerable variance in actual behavior. Attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control are shown to be related to appropriate sets of salient behavioral, normative, and control beliefs about the behavior, but the exact nature of these relations is still uncertain. Expectancy— value formulations are found to be only partly successful in dealing with these relations. Optimal rescaling of expectancy and value measures is offered as a means of dealing with measurement limitations. Finally, inclusion of past behavior in the prediction equation is shown to provide a means of testing the theory*s sufficiency, another issue that remains unresolved. The limited available evidence concerning this question shows that the theory is predicting behavior quite well in comparison to the ceiling imposed by behavioral reliability. © 1991 Academic Press. Inc.
65,095 citations
TL;DR: In social cognitive theory human behavior is extensively motivated and regulated by the ongoing exercise of self-influence as discussed by the authors, and the major self-regulative mechanism operates through three principal sub-functions: self-monitoring of one's behavior, its determinants, and its effects; judgment of behavior in relation to personal standards and environmental circumstances; and affective self-reaction.
Abstract: In social cognitive theory human behavior is extensively motivated and regulated by the ongoing exercise of self-influence. The major self-regulative mechanism operates through three principal subfunctions. These include self-monitoring of one's behavior, its determinants, and its effects; judgment of one's behavior in relation to personal standards and environmental circumstances; and affective self-reaction. Self-regulation also encompasses the self-efficacy mechanism, which plays a central role in the exercise of personal agency by its strong impact on thought, affect, motivation, and action. The same self-regulative system is involved in moral conduct although compared to the achievement domain, in the moral domain the evaluative standards are more stable, the judgmental factors more varied and complex, and the affective self-reactions more intense. In the interactionist perspective of social cognitive theory, social factors affect the operation of the self-regulative system.
4,222 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the literature on goal setting through 1990 has been reviewed and integrated by Locke and Latham (1990a), with special emphasis on its practical implications for the motivation of employees in organizational settings.
Abstract: The extant literature on goal setting through 1990 has been reviewed and integrated by Locke and Latham (1990a) . The result was the development of a theory of goal setting with special emphasis on its practical implications for the motivation of employees in organizational settings. The purpose of the present paper is twofold. First, the theory is summarized and updated with respect to research completed since publication of the 1990 book. Second, the self-regulatory effects of goal setting are described. Emphasis is given to ways that people can use goals as a self-management technique.
1,138 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the effects of organizational citizenship behaviors and objective sales productivity on managers' evaluations of salespersons' performance and found that managers' subjective evaluations of the salesperson's performance are determined as much by the seller's altruism and civic virtue as by objective productivity levels in the primary sample.
Abstract: This study investigates the effects of “organizational citizenship behaviors” ( Organ, 1988a , Organ, 1988b ) and objective sales productivity on managers' evaluations of salespersons' performance. Three objective measures of weekly productivity (number of policies, total commissions, and the percentage of quota reached) were obtained for a primary sample of 259 multiline insurance agents, as well as a cross-validation sample of 113 agents. Also obtained for these agents was an evaluation of four dimensions of organizational citizenship behaviors (altruism, civic virtue, courtesy, and sportsmanship), and a managerial assessment of their performance. Covariance structure analysis indicated that managers' subjective evaluations of salespersons' performance are determined as much by the salespersons' altruism and civic virtue as by objective productivity levels in the primary sample. Similar results were also obtained in the validation sample. Moreover, these findings were robust to the effects of common method biases. The implications of these findings for our understanding of the determinants of managerial evaluations of performance are then discussed.
794 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, cognitive self-regulation theories are discussed in relation to other work motivation theories and to key concepts in the realm of motivation, such as motivation, self-awareness, and self-efficacy.
Abstract: Cognitive self-regulation theories are discussed in relation to other work motivation theories and to key concepts in the realm of motivation.
444 citations
TL;DR: A meta-analysis of 122 studies revealed evidence that the bias occurs under some conditions and that its effect can be moderated by a subject's familiarity with the task and by the type of outcome information presented as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The hindsight bias in probability assessments is one of the most frequently cited judgment biases. A meta-analysis of 122 studies revealed evidence that the bias occurs under some conditions and that its effect can be moderated by a subject's familiarity with the task and by the type of outcome information presented. The data also suggest that the use of “almanac” questions can generate an unusually large hindsight effect. An observed asymmetry in the effect of the hindsight bias suggests that cognitive and not motivational factors may be the main cause of the bias. Finally, the overall magnitude of the effect of the hindsight bias was found to be small (r = .17). While these results suggest that the bias may not be as worrisome as commonly assumed in the literature, we discuss some situations when an effect this small may be of importance to practitioners. We also show that, depending upon the familiarity of the task and type of outcome information presented, anywhere from a minimum of 0% to a maximum of 7–27% of the population may make different decisions because of the hindsight bias.
430 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a laboratory experiment was designed to test the influence of subordinate impression management on two aspects of the performance appraisal process: supervisor ratings of subordinate performance and supervisor verbal communication in a performance appraisal interview.
Abstract: A laboratory experiment was designed to test the influence of subordinate impression management on two aspects of the performance appraisal process: supervisor ratings of subordinate performance and supervisor verbal communication in a performance appraisal interview. It was hypothesized that subordinate impression management would inflate performance ratings and both impression management and objective performance would influence the supervisor's style of verbal communication in the interview. Subjects consisted of 96 undergraduate students who performed a supervisory role in the study. Subjects interacted with a confederate subordinate who engaged in high or low levels of impression management and performed at a high, average, or low level. Results suggested support for the positive influence of subordinate impression management on performance ratings. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for human resource management practice.
219 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine how D. Kahneman and A. Tversky's (1979, 1984) assertions from prospect theory, that mental accounts are organized topically, might relate to sunk cost effects in decision-making.
Abstract: Two experiments were designed in order to examine how D. Kahneman and A. Tversky's (1979, 1984) assertions from prospect theory, that mental accounts are organized topically, might relate to sunk cost effects in decision-making. In each experiment, the absolute magnitude (dollars) and the relative magnitude (dollars in proportion to an overall project budget) of sunk costs were manipulated independently across four different decision problems. Subjects responded to each problem with the probability that if faced with the situation described, they would commit the remaining funds to the action that they had initiated. The subjects in Experiment 1 were undergraduate business students, fulfilling a course requirement. Those in Experiment 2 were MBA students, participating on a purely voluntary basis. Very consistent findings emerged across both experiments, where relative rather than absolute magnitude of sunk costs had a significant impact on subjects' reported likelihood of committing additional funds to some action. These findings support the idea that a topical organization of mental accounts, where existing investments are compared with a reference state in a manner consistent with that prescribed by prospect theory, underlies sunk cost effects in decision-making.
212 citations
TL;DR: For instance, this article found that confidence in judgment increased with both practice and effort, whereas accuracy sometimes increased and under other conditions remained the same, and confidence was lowest when decisions based on judgment had already been made.
Abstract: Two experiments were conducted to examine several potential influences on the appropriateness of confidence in judgment. Specifically, confidence in judgment was expected to increase with practice, effort, decision-making, and the availability of relevant information. Accuracy in judgment was not expected to increase as much as confidence. College men (n = 287) used various measures of baseball performance to predict the overall performance of professional baseball players. Feedback on judgments was not provided. The judgment task was designed to simulate activities commonly performed by practitioners in applicant selection settings. These activities included assessing ability, predicting performance, and selecting/rejecting applicants. Consistent with predictions, results showed that confidence in judgment increased with both practice and effort, whereas accuracy sometimes increased and under other conditions remained the same. Changes over trials in the amount of information for making judgments influenced the relation between confidence and practice. Contrary to expectations, confidence in judgment was lowest when decisions based on judgment had already been made. Implications for judgment and decision-making in applied settings are discussed.
195 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that people are frequently overconfident in the accuracy of their estimates of uncertain quantities, and overconfidence occurs when less than a target percentage of ranges include the true value.
Abstract: People are frequently overconfident in the accuracy of their estimates of uncertain quantities. The present study requested 50%- or 90%-confidence ranges. Overconfidence is shown when less than the target percentage of ranges include the true value. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) proposed that people use an anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic: They begin with a starting value, one supplied to them or generated by them, and insufficiently adjust their estimates around this anchor. The present data support the proposed anchoring process. If subjects receive another person's point estimates, their own implicit point estimates are correlated with these values. However, anchoring- and-adjustment processes do not invariably produce overconfidence. Subjects who receive anchors are no more overconfident than are those who do not receive anchors. If subjects are required to produce a point estimate first, overconfidence decreases; processes involved in explicitly displaying the point estimate are implicated. Overconfidence may occur because people do not realistically assess their estimation ability.
193 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors find three factors to be associated with use of cost-benefit rules in everyday decisions: effectiveness in achieving desirable life outcomes, intelligence, and training in economics.
Abstract: We find three factors to be associated with use of cost-benefit rules in everyday decisions These are effectiveness in achieving desirable life outcomes, intelligence, and training in economics We argue that these empirical findings support the claim that cost-benefit reasoning is normative
TL;DR: This paper examined the effects of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic upon judgments of future effort and performance and upon actual allocations of time and effort using several types of anchoring information, including irrelevant and relevant information.
Abstract: The behavioral correlates of human judgment have received little attention from judgment and decision making researchers. One behavioral domain that provides for the study of judgment-behavior relations is task motivation (i.e., the allocation of time and effort to a task). Judgments of contingent relations are primary components of several theories of motivation, including expectancy theories and the theory of behavior in organizations proposed by Naylor, Pritchard, and Ilgen (1980) . The characteristics of heuristic judgment processes are hypothesized to affect contingency judgments and thus behavioral allocations of time and effort. This paper examines the effects of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic upon (a) judgments of future effort and performance and (b) upon actual allocations of time and effort using several types of anchoring information. Results indicate that both irrelevant and relevant information have strong anchoring effects on effort and performance judgments, but do not have concomitant effects on behavior. Implications for the role of judgment in motivation and for the link between judgment and behavior are discussed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors found that the overall accuracy of both price and earnings forecasts was very modest; subjects would have been more accurate had they predicted that price changes were equally likely to fall into any of the specified ranges.
Abstract: Undergraduate and graduate students in finance courses made probabilistic forecasts of the quarterly changes in the stock prices and earnings of publicly traded companies. Consistent with previous findings ( Stael von Holstein, 1972 ), the overall accuracy of both price and earnings forecasts was very modest; subjects would have been more accurate had they predicted that price changes were equally likely to fall into any of the specified ranges. Also consistent with earlier suggestions of “inverted” expertise effects, undergraduate subjects were more accurate than graduate subjects. Decompositional analyses of subjects' judgments were consistent with the hypothesis that graduate students' relatively poor accuracy was affected by their greater tendency to report forecasts that varied from one stock to the next instead of the same forecast for every one. It is argued that the most plausible explanation is that the graduate subjects responded to cues they thought were predictive, but which actually were not. However, it cannot be ruled out completely that the graduate subjects attended to truly predictive cues, but were simply unable to use them appropriately.
TL;DR: This paper found that negotiators develop inferior bidding strategies because they fail to incorporate valuable information about the decisions of their opponents, which results in negative profits or the "winner's curse" in bilateral bargaining behavior under uncertainty.
Abstract: Recent research on bilateral bargaining behavior under uncertainty has found that, under asymmetric information, negotiators develop inferior bidding strategies because they fail to incorporate valuable information about the decisions of their opponents. This results in negative profits, or the “winner's curse.” The present study provided subjects multiple opportunities for feedback as well as experience in both negotiation roles. Neither learning opportunity eliminates the winner's curse.
TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship between goal setting and expectancy theories was investigated, and the results of an empirical study using a sample of 344 college students and an academic task were presented.
Abstract: This investigation sought to clarify the relationship between goal setting and expectancy theories. Toward this end, (a) previous theoretical and empirical efforts at integrating these two theories are reviewed, (b) issues of causal ordering, measurement, and the meanings of those measures are examined, and (c) the results of an empirical study using a sample of 344 college students and an academic task are presented. Results illustrate how different operationalizations of expectancy and attractiveness ratings result in the measurement of different constructs and influence the significance and direction of empirical findings. For almost all operationalizations, however, significant relationships were evident between expectancy theory constructs and goal choice, goal commitment, and performance. Causal analyses using cross-lag correlations were inconclusive, but mediation and path analyses provided some evidence that goals mediate the effects of expectancy theory constructs on performance.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the cognitive representations used by expert and novice auditors in performing a simulated audit task to evaluate financial data from two actual audit cases in which framing effects were present and were not detected by auditors.
Abstract: Framing effects occur when an agent (e.g., a manager) constructs a description of some entity (e.g., a company) such that the way information is stated (framed) influences the decisions made by other agents (e.g., auditors, analysts, and investors). Auditors, in particular, are charged by society with evaluating and reporting on the fairness of the descriptions of a company (financial statements and related notes) constructed by its management. The financial statements, notes, and the auditor's report provide the financial markets with information on which to base investment and other business decisions. Although auditors have substantial incentives for detecting framing effects that “cover up” misleading financial information, detection is not always achieved. This project was designed as a field (case) study to investigate the cognitive representations used by expert and novice auditors in performing a simulated audit task to evaluate financial data from two actual audit cases in which framing effects were present and were not detected by auditors. The first case contained a deliberately created framing effect (management fraud); the second case contained a naturally occurring framing effect (financial statement error). Thinking-aloud comments given by three expert and three novice auditors were analyzed to determine the representations used in performing the simulated audit task of concurring partner review. In the fraud case, management had manipulated income so that all subjects initially generated a “growth company” representation that was incorrect. Subjects who interpreted cues configurally (i.e., as patterns) were able to construct an alternative representation (a company in decline) and detect the fraud. One novice and one expert who had experience in the industry represented by the fraud case did this. Expert and novice auditors without such experience did not. In the error case in which receivables were grossly overstated, none of the subjects had relevant industry experience. Experts generated a “collections” representation that focused attention on the material risk associated with the problem of collection of accounts receivable. These subjects detected the financial statement error. Novices generated a “collateral” representation that failed to detect the error in accounts receivable.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify expectation-outcome consistency as an important moderator of the degree of hindsight bias and find that the bias is larger when outcomes are inconsistent with expectations than when they are consistent.
Abstract: Hindsight bias has been found in a wide variety of contexts and proven robust to most attempts at its moderation or elimination. In this paper we identify expectation-outcome consistency as an important moderator of the degree of hindsight bias. Based on Weick's concept of retrospective sense-making and Fischhoff's immediate assimilation explanation, we hypothesize that hindsight bias will be larger when outcomes are inconsistent with expectations than when they are consistent. In two experiments a total of 308 subjects evaluated the decisions of employees by estimating the likelihood of a good outcome. Results show hindsight bias to be significantly larger when outcomes are inconsistent with expectations based on either employees' performance history, employees' current action, or both. In some cases where expectations are confirmed, bias is even eliminated. Further, the bias is significantly larger for negative than for positive outcomes, and there is a “disappointment effect” in which the greatest bias occurs when high expectations are disconfirmed by a negative outcome. Implications for future research and for the process of evaluating other people are discussed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that a careful consideration of possible constraints on organizational behavior and attitudes can facilitate both the production and consumption of organizational research, and the nature of such constraints is explored.
Abstract: It is argued that a careful consideration of possible constraints on organizational behavior and attitudes can facilitate both the production and consumption of organizational research. The nature of such constraints is explored, and examples are given of the likely operation of constraints in several research areas, including constraints on absenteeism and turnover, technological constraints, and the role of constraints in longitudinal research. Research tactics for dealing with constraints are proposed, and reasons are suggested for the lack of attention given to constraints.
TL;DR: The authors conducted a process tracing study of multiattribute choice in which each of 24 participants made choices among alternative computer information systems and found that, relative to numbers, words lead to more alternative-based information search and less compensatory processing.
Abstract: The form in which attribute values are represented is an important component of choice tasks. However, there is little evidence about the effects on decision processes of representing attribute values of alternatives numerically (i.e., as numbers) versus linguistically (i.e., as words). To investigate this issue, we conducted a process tracing study of multiattribute choice in which each of 24 participants made choices among alternative computer information systems. The number and similarity of alternatives were also manipulated to examine interactions of information representation with other task and context variables. Detailed measure of decision processes were collected through concurrent verbal protocols and computer logs generated by a mouse-driven software program. Results indicate that, relative to numbers, words lead to more alternative-based information search and less compensatory processing. We also find that the number and similarity of alternatives have important moderating influences on the effects of information representation. We conclude with implications for decision research.
TL;DR: In this article, a method for verbal expression of degree of uncertainty is described, which requires the subject to select a phrase from a list that spans the full range of probabilities, and then the subject indicates the numerical meaning of each phrase.
Abstract: A method for verbal expression of degree of uncertainty is described. It requires the subject to select a phrase from a list that spans the full range of probabilities. In a second, optional, step, the subject indicates the numerical meaning of each phrase. The method avoids two problems of verbal probabilities—the indefinitely large lexicon and the individual differences in the interpretation of words. To test whether context and ordinal position might bias subjects' selection or interpretation of the verbal expressions in the list, the list order was varied. When the verbal expressions were arranged in random order, ordinal position had a significant effect on the selection of expressions. However, these effects did not occur when the phrases were listed in ascending or descending order. Considerations of accuracy and interpersonal agreement also support the use of ordered phrase lists.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the impact of unequal power on the quality of negotiated agreements between dyad members in a job market and find that exploding offers lower quality of matching outcomes, while increasing the longevity of employment offers and improving the alternatives to agreement of recruiters.
Abstract: Negotiated outcomes in market contexts where unique goods are offered include the matching of buyers and sellers and the terms of dyadic agreements. In a laboratory simulation of the MBA job market, subjects played the roles of job candidates or corporate recruiters. Subjects found jobs or hired employees and agreed to the terms of their employment contracts. The balance of power between the sides of the market was manipulated by 1) increasing the longevity of employment offers, or 2) improving the alternatives to agreement of recruiters. The results suggest that the quality of negotiated agreements between dyad members increased by unequal power. At the market level of analysis, the results suggest that exploding offers lower the quality of matching outcomes. These results are discussed in terms of their implications for competitive practices in matching markets.
TL;DR: Ayn Rand's theory of free will, the basis of this article, identifies this level of self-regulation with volition as mentioned in this paper, where the locus of direct volitional choice is placed in the choice "to think or not to think", where thinking is understood as rational, purposefully directed cognition.
Abstract: Living organisms exhibit various levels of self-regulation, the highest of which is man's ability to regulate the operation of his conceptual faculty. Ayn Rand's theory of free will, the basis of this article, identifies this level of self-regulation with volition. The locus of direct volitional choice is placed in the choice “to think or not to think,” where thinking is understood as rational, purposefully directed cognition. The nature of this choice is analyzed in detail, with special emphasis on Rand's concept of mental “focus.” The epistemological status of the theory is discussed, including the role of introspective evidence in its behalf. It is argued that one's volitional control over one's own thinking has the status of an axiom, and that any attempted denial of this control is self-refuting.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared the performance of novices and experienced tax practitioners on tasks involving the application of tax laws, and found that the more experienced experts were more inflexible in problem solving due to the proceduralization of information processing.
Abstract: Analogical transfer and its relation to expertise is examined in a legal context. Three experiments were conducted comparing the performance of novices (introductory tax students) and of experts (experienced tax practitioners from multinational public accounting firms) on tasks involving the application of tax laws. In Experiment 1 subjects completed a target problem after reading a decided case that was either analogous or not analogous to a target problem. A limited amount of transfer was observed, with no differential rate of transfer across experience levels. In Experiments 2 and 3 attempts were made to facilitate transfer of knowledge by inducing transfer-appropriate processing of the source analog and by providing multiple source analogs. The results of both experiments indicate an interaction between treatment and expertise. Unexpectedly, the facilitating treatments reduced the transfer of knowledge for experts while increasing the transfer for novices. Subsequent analysis of the responses of the expert subjects indicates that for the more experienced expert subjects a highly proceduralized rule interfered with the knowledge transfer when that rule was made salient by the facilitating treatments. The less experienced expert subjects behaved in a manner consistent with the hypotheses. This poor performance of the more experienced experts results from the inflexibility in expert problem solving due to the proceduralization of information processing. Frensch and Sternberg (1989) demonstrate that this type of inflexibility is one of the costs of expertise and results from the development of a large and highly complex knowledge base containing numerous well developed strategies.
TL;DR: This article presented a cognitive analysis of subjective probability judgments and proposed that these are assessments of belief-processing activities, motivated by an investigation of the concepts of belief, knowledge, and uncertainty.
Abstract: This paper presents a cognitive analysis of subjective probability judgments and proposes that these are assessments of belief-processing activities. The analysis is motivated by an investigation of the concepts of belief, knowledge, and uncertainty. Judgment and reasoning are differentiated, Toulmin's (1958) theory of argument being used to explicate the latter. The paper discusses a belief-processing model in which reasoning is used to translate data into conclusions, while judgmental processes qualify those conclusions with degrees of belief. The model sheds light on traditional interpretations of probability and suggests that different characteristics of belief—likelihood and support—are addressed by different representational systems. In concluding, the paper identifies new lines of research implied by its analysis.
TL;DR: This paper investigated how the information acquisition process in a binary choice task is influenced by the overall level of attractiveness of alternatives, by the magnitude of differences in attractiveness, and by the dominance of one alternative, and found that subjects selected more information when the attractiveness difference was small and when one of the alternatives was not dominant.
Abstract: Two process tracing studies investigated how the information acquisition process in a binary choice task is influenced by the overall level of attractiveness of alternatives, by the magnitude of differences in attractiveness of alternatives, and by the dominance of one alternative. All three factors influenced the subjects' information selection process regarding the multiattribute choice alternatives. Subjects selected more information when the attractiveness difference was small and when one of the alternatives was not dominant. Moreover, they considered more information when the choice alternatives were both unattractive. These findings were obtained when information was presented about the alternatives both numerically and nonnumerically. The experimental results were explained within a sequential sampling strategy framework.
TL;DR: This paper found that when overall evaluations toward the choice alternatives were available, respondents were less likely to show a directional bias and neglect the unique features of the referent in making a preference judgment.
Abstract: Comparisons are often characterized by a directional feature-matching process in which individuals examine the extent to which the features of one alternative—the “subject”—are present or absent in a second alternative—the “referent.” Previous research cf. ( Tversky, 1977 ; Houston, Sherman, & Baker, 1989 ) has found that individuals exhibit a pervasive tendency to focus upon the unique features of the subject and to neglect the unique features of the referent during the comparison process (the direction-of-comparison effect). Experiment 1 examined how the availability of overall evaluations in memory influences the direction-of-comparison effect and comparison strategy selection. When overall evaluations toward the choice alternatives were available, respondents were less likely to show a directional bias and neglect the unique features of the referent in making a preference judgment. The findings suggest that the availability of overall evaluations decreases the likelihood of a feature-based comparison. Experiment 2 examined the robustness of the direction-of-comparison effect when feature-based comparisons are performed. The direction-of-comparison effect was found when the features of two alternatives were from different dimensions, but not when the features occupied different points on the same dimension. The results suggest that directional effects in preference judgments depend on the availability of overall evaluations and on the nature of the features involved in the comparison process.
TL;DR: This article showed that payment of performance-based monetary rewards in double oral markets is not a necessary condition for convergence to equilibrium, however, such rewards do increase the reliability or reproductibility of laboratory results and constitute a valuable, albeit expensive, research tool.
Abstract: The significance of using performance-based monetary rewards in laboratory experiments has been a subject of debate among experimental economists and psychologists. Empirical evidence presented in this paper suggests that payment of performance-based monetary rewards in double oral markets is not a necessary condition for convergence to equilibrium. However, such rewards do increase the reliability or reproductibility of laboratory results and, therefore, constitute a valuable, albeit expensive, research tool.
TL;DR: In this paper, an experiment with trained Army air defense personnel performing a paper-and-pencil representation of their substantive task was performed to test the predictions of the Hogarth-Einhorn (1992) model for belief updating.
Abstract: An experiment with trained Army air defense personnel performing a paper-and-pencil representation of their substantive task was performed to test the predictions of the Hogarth–Einhorn (1992) model for belief updating. For a simple task with a short series of information, the model predicted a significant information order by response mode interaction. The experiment supported the model′s predictions. When information was presented sequentially and a probability estimate was obtained after each piece of information, the order in which the same information was presented significantly affected the final mean probability estimates. In contrast, when all the information was presented at once and a probability estimate was obtained at that time, information order had no effect. There were, however, large individual differences. Moreover, order and response mode cumulatively accounted for less than 10 percent of the total variation in the participants′ probability estimates. These findings, and their implications, are discussed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated if supervisory behaviors mediated the effects of prior absence on work attitudes, if work attitudes mediated the effect of supervisory style on absenteeism, and if family size and gender affected the satisfaction-absence relationship.
Abstract: The present study answers calls for tests of prominent absence models. Previous studies of absenteeism have either examined only bivariate associations between antecedents and absenteeism or were concerned primarily with the relative contributions particular variables made to the prediction of absenteeism. The hypotheses of this study were drawn from the Steers and Rhodes (1978) process model of work attendance. Specifically, we investigated (1) if supervisory behaviors mediated the effects of prior absence on work attitudes; (2) if work attitudes mediated the effects of supervisory style on absenteeism; and (3) if family size and gender affected the satisfaction-absence relationship. The data, collected from chemical manufacturing workers and analyzed using both ordinary least squares and tobit regression models, indicated that (1) supervisory consideration accounted for a large part of the total association between prior absenteeism and job satisfaction; (2) while supervisory style affected job satisfaction, it was not significantly associated with subsequent absenteeism; and (3) as family size increased, satisfaction was less related to absence frequency. Gender had only a significant direct association with subsequent absenteeism. Thus, using tests of mediation, this study provides support for process models of work absenteeism.
TL;DR: The authors found that vague estimates for both the probability and outcome dimensions caused vagueness aversion (and higher compliance) when the vague estimate was near the more favorable lower boundary of either dimension and lower compliance, and that the vague estimates were near the less favorable upper boundary.
Abstract: In compliance decisions, the decision maker usually has only vague or ambiguous knowledge of the probability of being caught and the outcome (amount of penalty). An experiment is reported which extends work on effects of probability ambiguity by manipulating outcome ambiguity as well. When outcomes were limited to a bounded range and probabilities ranged between their natural boundaries [0, 1] in experimental tax decisions, symmetrical boundary effects were found in which vague estimates for both the probability and outcome dimensions caused vagueness aversion (and higher compliance) when the vague estimate was near the more favorable lower boundary of either dimension and vagueness seeking (and lower compliance) when the vague estimate was near the less favorable upper boundary. Probability and outcome vagueness effects were found to be independent of the vagueness of the other dimension, and vagueness effects were not systematically related to the level of the other dimension. The results suggest that a common cognitive process mediates the impact of vagueness on both dimensions. This may be a vagueness-adjustment process in which vague estimates are adjusted toward the middle of the bounded range, or a vagueness-preference process in which vague outcomes, and vague probabilities as well, are evaluated based on utility considerations, as though probability were a tangible commodity. For increasing compliance, the results suggest that risk information should be disseminated only when risks of punishment are relatively high. When risks are low, random enforcement techniques that enhance vagueness become more effective.