Showing papers in "Pacific Review in 2012"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that these flows represent the efforts of Chinese and foreign investors to reduce governance and measurement transaction costs in offshore financial centers such as the Caymans Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
Abstract: Why is the British Virgin Islands a bigger source of foreign direct investment into China than the USA, the European Union and Japan combined? Why is there 10 times more investment from China in the Caymans Islands than there is in the USA? This paper argues that these flows represent the efforts of Chinese and foreign investors to reduce governance and measurement transaction costs. Investors avail themselves of efficient institutions in offshore centers that are absent locally. These institutional attractions include the ease of raising capital on foreign stock markets, access to reliable courts, and more flexible and sophisticated financial products. Existing explanations of these capital movements, characterizing them as criminal money or tax arbitrage, are insufficient. Evidence is drawn from government statistics, private legal advice and interviews in offshore financial centers.
47 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the spread of R2P in Southeast Asia against the backdrop of recent scholarship on norm localization and find that outsider proponents are the primary advocates and the norm lacks a champion or well-connected "insider" proponent among regional governments or civil society groups.
Abstract: There is growing interest among scholars and advocates in the way that the nascent norm of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is diffusing at the regional level. This article critically explores the spread of R2P in Southeast Asia against the backdrop of recent scholarship on norm localization. It argues that, contrary to some recent analyses, the R2P norm has not been localized in Southeast Asia. Constitutive localization requires the active borrowing of transnational norms by local or regional actors who build congruence with local practices. Although some regional states have used the language of ‘sovereignty as responsibility’ there are few signs that local actors are driving the reception of the norm in the region, nor have they institutionalized it. Rather, outsider proponents are the primary advocates and the norm lacks a champion or well-connected ‘insider’ proponent among regional governments or civil society groups. Second, despite an energetic campaign by advocates, emphasizing consen...
39 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze Chinese policy stance on the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) concept from two levels: its basic attitude towards the core principles of RtoP and its specific attitudes towards the execution of this concept, that is, the international intervention actions.
Abstract: This article tries to analyze Chinese policy stance on the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) concept from two levels: its basic attitude towards the core principles of this concept and its specific attitudes towards the execution of this concept, that is, the international intervention actions. Starting from the clarification of the RtoP concept, the article analyzes the maintenance and change of China's stance on state sovereign and non-interference principle. In the third part, four features of Chinese specific attitudes on intervention actions are abstracted, including cautiousness, aversion of military means, emphasis of UN authority and local support. Then the article further examines China's policy during the Libyan war, and finds that it basically follows the above framework.
37 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied how and why different approaches to renewable energy policy emerged in East Asia, to what extent the promotion and expansion of East Asia's renewable energy sector is part of a new industrial policy paradigm and new developmentalism, and what the study of East Asian policies on promoting renewable energy can tell us about the region's broader approach to low carbon development.
Abstract: East Asia's renewable energy (RE) sector has grown faster than any other region's since the mid-2000s. It is argued that renewables formed an integral part of the region's new industrial policies and new developmentalism, which are founded on new configured forms of state capacity shaped in response to various challenges, primarily climate change, energy security, globalisation and global neo-liberalism. By studying the recent progress of East Asia's RE sector, we gain useful insights into these key developments in East Asia's political economy and the region's prospects for transition towards low carbon development. This analysis considers how and why different approaches to RE policy emerged in East Asia, to what extent the promotion and expansion of East Asia's RE sector is part of a new industrial policy paradigm and new developmentalism, and what the study of East Asian policies on promoting renewable energy can tell us about the region's broader approach to low carbon development. Although ...
29 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that since the middle of the decade, a new FTA motive has emerged -the use of FTAs to improve resource security, particularly by import-dependent resource consumers in Northeast Asia.
Abstract: Following a historical commitment to multilateralism, in the last decade the trade policy initiatives of many states in the Asia-Pacific have turned to bilateralism through the negotiation of free trade agreements (FTAs). The corresponding proliferation of regional FTAs has thus far been understood to result from three broad motivations: a desire to advance trade liberalization beyond World Trade Organization (WTO) disciplines; mercantilistic efforts to secure preferential access to key export markets; and/or attempts to use FTAs to secure non-economic political gains. This paper argues that since the middle of the decade a new motive has emerged – the use of FTAs to improve resource security – particularly by import-dependent resource consumers in Northeast Asia. As yet unexamined in the literature, this paper seeks to document and explain this trend. It analyses the recent emergence of resource security concerns as a new FTA motive; the corresponding shifts in the FTA strategies and initiatives...
26 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the role of new media in the 2008 Malaysian general elections and its immediate aftermath by analysing its role, advantages, and limitations in terms of advancing democratization and greater political openness in Malaysia.
Abstract: The Malaysian general elections held on 8 March 2008 proved to be a historic event. For the first time, the political opposition managed to deny the incumbent National Front coalition a two-thirds parliamentary majority. Attempts to explain the opposition coalition's 2008 success have identified new media as a critical factor that turned the tide in the opposition's favour. The purpose of this paper is to better understand the new media factor at the 2008 elections and its immediate aftermath by analysing its role, advantages proffered, and limitations in terms of advancing democratization and greater political openness in Malaysia.
23 citations
TL;DR: This paper applied the literature to the state-building process in Bougainville, an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, to understand what occurs when a liberal-local approach is adopted from the outset of a statebuilding operation.
Abstract: There has been an increasing attempt to theorise the emergence of a liberal-local hybrid approach to state-building, which recognises the coexistence and interaction of liberal and local socio-political institutions. There has not yet been a sustained attempt to understand what occurs when a liberal-local approach is adopted from the outset of a state-building operation. This article seeks to fill this gap by applying the literature to the state-building process in Bougainville, an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea.
21 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that ASEAN peacefulness cannot be explained by durable objective conditions, instead, it is built on imagined realities, and that the imagined reality of the ASAAN Way is getting more difficult to sustain due to their interaction with material and normative/institutional developments.
Abstract: If the assessment of ASEAN's success in the past is difficult, speculations on whether ASEAN will be a success will be close to impossibility. Yet this is what is intended in this article. However, this is done by first defining robust criteria of success of conflict prevention. Conflict prevention is successful if conflicts and battle deaths can be avoided, either by means of conflict resolution or transformation, or simply by means of conflict avoidance. By starting with this criterion the article will argue that ASEAN peacefulness cannot be explained by durable objective conditions. Instead, it is built on imagined realities. The imagined realities of the ASEAN Way are getting more difficult to sustain due to their interaction with material and normative/institutional developments. Many of the constructed foundations of the ASEAN Way are unsustainable in the new realities where communication has become easy and uncontrollable, and societies have become wealthier and more democratized. However,...
20 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors look at how the maritime sphere of Northeast Asia is represented in common political and academic discourses of international relations and find that maritime affairs are firmly cast in the language of national security, and that empirical evidence against perceived threats and related security imperatives is often neglected if not completely ignored.
Abstract: High economic growth rates, the revolution in telecommunications and the end of the Cold War have brought about rapid and profound changes to the domestic as well as regional environments of Northeast Asian governments. The maritime sphere, where increasingly militarized state boundaries delineate political authority and economic activities link increasingly interdependent communities therein, bears high significance for the study of regional cooperation. This paper looks at how the maritime sphere of Northeast Asia is represented in common political and academic discourses of international relations. It finds that maritime affairs are firmly cast in the language of national security, and that empirical evidence against perceived threats and related security imperatives is often neglected if not completely ignored. The paper argues that the maritime space, due to its special character, has become the stage on which the consequences of modernity appear particularly strong. The relentless quest to ...
16 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze how and why the Japanese government uses green environmental and energy technology in relations with emerging and developed countries, focusing on railway, nuclear power generation, water, and next-generation automobile industries.
Abstract: The Japanese government and business sector have long seen opportunities in making environmental protection a core feature of industrial policy. The ‘green’ economic diplomacy-effort, which materialized in the late 1980s and largely builds on targeted domestic innovation policies, is now entering new ground. Assessing recent developments in the railway, nuclear power generation, water, and next-generation automobile industries, this paper analyses how and why the Japanese government uses ‘green’ environmental and energy technology in relations with emerging and developed countries. Public-private partnerships are strengthened, and semi-governmental institutions and individual politicians take up new roles. Adhering to comprehensive security traditions, Japan's policies aim to contribute to the national interest both in terms of economic prosperity and political stability. Primary objectives are the quest for new markets abroad, resources security, and securing cooperative relations with other cou...
16 citations
TL;DR: The authors argues that substantive neoliberal reform has taken place in Korea since 1997 and argues that a new "developmental state" is in process of consolidating itself is simply wrong, however, the state's reform program interacted with material conditions and political coalitions at the meso...
Abstract: A key theme within the literature on the evolution of the Korean political economy since the 1997/8 crisis has been the extent to which Korea remains a ‘developmental state’ or has pursued radical neoliberal reform. These debates have not only reflected a concern with understanding the Korean economy but with a wider set of questions relating to the future of capitalist diversity within a globalized economy. By the late 1980s Korea had come to be regarded as a model of successful state-led late capitalist development. Korean modern economic history has insured that questions relating to the extent that it has pursued neoliberal reform have been of keen interest to students of political economy globally. This paper argues that substantive neoliberal reform has taken place in Korea since 1997. The thesis that a new ‘developmental state’ is in process of consolidating itself is simply wrong. However, the state's reform program interacted with material conditions and political coalitions at the meso ...
TL;DR: In this article, the second largest contributor to the UN budget, Japan is expected to play a role in implementing the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and the impact of incorporating R2P in its diplomatic agenda is examined.
Abstract: As the second largest contributor to the UN budget, Japan is expected to play a role in implementing the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Why has Japan been unenthusiastic about actively engaging in the R2P discourse? What is the impact, both domestic and international, of incorporating R2P in its diplomatic agenda? In examining these questions, we first identify different perceptions about R2P among policy-makers and civil society in Japan. We then analyze the post-Cold War politics of diplomatic initiatives concerning Japan's human security doctrine. Third, we assess opportunities (and limitations) of synchronizing R2P with Japanese diplomatic agendas. Throughout the article, we argue that rather than distancing itself from R2P, as typically seen in official statements, actively embracing R2P may provide greater benefits for Japan both in terms of enhancing its diplomatic influence and mobilizing domestic political support.
TL;DR: Ulaanbaatar's 2010 National Security Concept and 2011 Foreign Policy Concept as discussed by the authors formalized a shift in foreign policy that has been readily apparent since 2000 and implicitly identifies China as the country's largest security concern.
Abstract: With the publication of its 2010 National Security Concept and its 2011 Foreign Policy Concept, Ulaanbaatar has formalised a shift in foreign policy that has been readily apparent since 2000. Whereas Mongolia's foreign policy for the 1990s was formulated around an omni-enmeshment strategy, its foreign policy from 2000 onward is best conceptualised as an amalgam of omni-enmeshment and balance of influence. Ulaanbaatar's new foreign policy strategy implicitly identifies China as the country's largest security concern. This sense of a China ‘challenge’ is mirrored in Ulaanbaatar's post-2000 foreign policy relations.
TL;DR: In Southeast Asia, there is a strong sense of caution - if not hostility - towards the Responsibility to Protect's provision for military interventions as a last resort, in order to protect populations from such harm.
Abstract: At the 2005 World Summit, ASEAN Member States contributed to an official global consensus that states do indeed have a responsibility to protect their populations from the four mass atrocity crimes of genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. As is the case in a number of regions, however, there is a strong sense of caution - if not hostility - in Southeast Asia (and East Asia more broadly) towards the Responsibility to Protect's provision for military interventions as a last resort, in order to protect populations from such harm. Furthermore, there is an accompanying, more general ambivalence towards the perceived relevance of the norm for Southeast Asia, due to the perceived nature and/or intensity of conflicts in the region. Against this backdrop, this article attempts to shed light on a sub-altern discourse in the region that argues that the RtoP is not only relevant, but that it is critical it be operationalised in light of the various manifestations of conflict th...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that not enough attention has been directed to the bridges that are gradually forming across that gap, and suggest that an English School-derived account can give a fuller picture of what is under way in this area.
Abstract: The objective of a ‘people-oriented’ Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not readily translated into easy relations between the Association and regional civil society. Discourse inspired by global civil society has found plenty to focus on in the gap between aspiration and practice. This article argues, however, that not enough attention has been directed to the bridges that are gradually forming across that gap, and suggests that an ‘English School’-derived account can give a fuller picture of what is under way in this area. From this perspective, a process of institutionalization is observable among the different actors. By tackling – consciously or unconsciously – core problems such as recognition, location of common ground, confidence-building, and burden-sharing, this process is potentially transforming the relations of a state-imposed hierarchy into something more societal. The usefulness of such an approach lies in its ability to describe a process of slow change on its own ...
TL;DR: The adoption of the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as discussed by the authors could provide a logical start for the maintraiming of R2P in aASEAN's discourse and practice, and the APSC may provide broad and indirect support for building the capacity of States to recognise, prevent and respond to the situations of conflict.
Abstract: Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) took part in the World Summit 2005 and agreed to adopt the principle of Responsibility to Protect (R2P). However, there has not been any significant effort to discuss how the R2P might be applicable to the region and the issue remains a marginal one to ASEAN. However, the adoption of the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) by ASEAN could provide a logical start for the maintraiming of R2P in ASEAN's discourse and practice. Some elements of the APSC appear to have characteristics in common with the R2P principle. While the APSC may provide broad and indirect support for building the capacity of States to recognise, prevent and respond to the situations of conflict, its immediate utility for preventing the four crimes of genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and crimes against humanity nonetheless remains to be seen.
TL;DR: The inclusion of the three paragraphs in the Outcome Document of the 2005 World Summit that make reference to the obligations of the state and the international community under the principle of the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) has effectively raised a challenge to the traditional understanding of sovereignty in international relations.
Abstract: The inclusion of the three paragraphs in the Outcome Document of the 2005 World Summit that make reference to the obligations of the state and the international community under the principle of the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) has effectively raised a challenge to the traditional understanding of the principle of sovereignty in international relations. More importantly, their inclusion in the Outcome Document has effectively committed its signatories to RtoP as briefly outlined in the Document. The question, however, is whether or not states will hold themselves to this commitment? Among the member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the commitment to RtoP under the Outcome Document is clearly at odds with the oft-emphasized commitment to the principle of non-interference that the members of the Association have long identified with. The establishment of new institutional forms, mechanisms, and blueprints within ASEAN, however, create opportunities for introducing em...
TL;DR: This article argued that the government's fortunes changed only after it abandoned the core reform goal and decided to pursue peripheral objectives and explained the abandonment with reference to the peculiar political system in Hong Kong that makes it difficult for the government to adopt substantial policy reforms in the face of even moderate opposition.
Abstract: The government of Hong Kong has been trying to reform the territory's health care financing system since the early 1990s and is finally on the verge of succeeding. The objective of this paper is to assess the reform efforts and explain the causes of repeated failures and eventual success. It will argue that the government's fortunes changed only after it abandoned the core reform goal and decided to pursue peripheral objectives. It will explain the abandonment with reference to the peculiar political system in Hong Kong that makes it difficult for the government to adopt substantial policy reforms in the face of even moderate opposition. The reason for the government's policy incapacity is the existence of liberalism in a non-democratic setting, which allows the government to neither suppress opposition nor mobilize popular support. This has been illustratively evident in its health care reforms when its proposals to improve the system's fiscal sustainability invariably met an early death because...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate what is behind the extraordinary resilience in US popular standing in an allegedly least likely setting, using survey data from 2002 and 2007 and a novel methodology, Classification and Regression Tree models.
Abstract: Despite many predictions to the contrary, the Republic of Korea (ROK) is currently one of the countries with most pro-American attitudes. We investigate what is behind the extraordinary resilience in US popular standing in an allegedly least likely setting. Using survey data from 2002 and 2007 and a novel methodology, Classification and Regression Tree models, we test whether US standing is: (1) a matter of interests, i.e. a reward that the USA receives because it either provides security or international public goods; or (2) whether it is a matter of image, i.e. the recognition that the USA is a role model to emulate. We find that across a large number of predictors, the Korean public mostly liked the USA because they liked American ways of doing business, which gives support to the image hypothesis. Security interests played a secondary role in shaping US standing, while the provision of international public goods had no impact in the popular assessment of the USA in the ROK.
TL;DR: In this paper, a recognition model was proposed to investigate how the social practices of a region with non-member entities promote regional cooperation, by viewing recognition as a tradable commodity and an independent variable.
Abstract: Does recognition matter for a region as much as it does for a state and a person? This article examines the power of recognition in shaping regional cooperation. Rather than focusing on the behaviours and interactions between member states, which most studies have done, this article introduces a recognition model to investigate how the social practices of a region with non-member entities promote regional cooperation. By viewing recognition as a tradable commodity and an independent variable, the framework illustrates how the contest for recognition permeates beyond interpersonal and interstate interactions to include the struggle for recognition by regions. The model hypothesizes that the extent of recognition accorded to a region has an influence on its development. Drawing on newly released US declassified diplomatic records, this article tests the soundness of the proposed recognition model for regions by analysing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) struggle for recognition i...
TL;DR: The role of civil society is indeed crucial to put pressure toward the government to fulfill its responsibility to protect its populations as mentioned in this paper, since state actor, in many cases, is the perpetrator of crimes included in RtoP.
Abstract: While governments in Southeast Asia, together with other countries in the world, have shown their unanimous support toward the RtoP, the implementation of such principle needs more than just states' commitment. Since state actor, in many cases, is the perpetrator of crimes included in RtoP, the role of civil society is indeed crucial to put pressure toward the government to fulfill its responsibility to protect its populations. This article aims to describe Indonesia's position so far in responding to this RtoP principle. It tries not to cover only the government's position, but instead to also delineate the civil society's standpoint, which is an important element particularly, to provide a more comprehensive overview. As based on the latest elaboration of RtoP within the UN Outcome Document (2005) into three strategic pillars, it is interesting to observe whether both sides, the government and civil society are comfortable to recognise all pillars altogether or rather incline to take one or two...
TL;DR: The authors focused on the relationship between national security and environmentalism in South Korea and identified challenges to the exclusionary realist and liberal institutional approaches to South Korea's Green Growth initiative, identifying official and unofficial contested narratives on development, environmentalism and national security.
Abstract: This paper focuses on the relationship between national security and environmentalism in South Korea. The 2009 South Korean Presidential Committee on Green Growth set a long-term vision for South Korea to ‘go green’. This is promoted as a new state-led development paradigm and a response to new global security risks. The paper identifies official and unofficial contested narratives on development, environmentalism and national security. By focusing on civil society movements, the paper identifies challenges to the exclusionary realist and liberal institutional approaches to South Korea's Green Growth initiative. These alternative discourses of national security are unpacking and reconstructing the relationship between development and environmentalism through the question of who defines ‘national security’ and for whose interests.
TL;DR: The authors argues that significant developments have taken place since the early 2000s, which have strengthened the position of private equity capital in the Asian political economy, and that new linkages have been formed between US private equity funds and local private equity players.
Abstract: Private equity has had a short but eventful history in East Asia, characterized first by US firm dominance and then by a nationalistic backlash. This article charts these earlier patterns, but argues that significant developments have taken place since the early 2000s, which have strengthened the position of private equity capital in the Asian political economy. As private equity deal-making has returned to Asia, new linkages have been formed between US private equity funds and local private equity players. Of particular importance have been US–Asian joint ventures, Asian nationals returning to domestic firms from US private equity houses and supportive local elites in the banking and pension fund sectors. The significance is two-fold. First, the spread of private equity has been founded on interdependent relationships between US actors and local actors, which have more successfully grounded the private equity industry in national political economies than its origins in the Asian crisis period. S...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors highlight the importance of social, cultural and institutional barriers to trade with and investment in Korea that cannot be legislated for under the new agreement but that can serve as "hidden stumbling blocks" to its implementation and effectiveness.
Abstract: In October 2010, the European Union (EU) and the Republic of Korea signed a free trade agreement that went into effect in July 2011 and aims to increase levels of bilateral trade and investment by dismantling existing tariff and non-tariff barriers. In this article, we highlight the importance of a third class of barriers: social, cultural and institutional barriers to trade with and investment in Korea that cannot be legislated for under the new agreement but that can serve as ‘hidden stumbling blocks’ to its implementation and effectiveness. We argue that the phenomenon of ‘mismatched globalization’ (in which economic globalization outpaces cultural globalization) is still apparent in Korea, as evidenced by the continuing existence of these ‘soft’ barriers which include, inter alia, the gap between policy and implementation; the lack of predictability, consistency and transparency in the regulatory environment (including IPR protection); education systems; labour militancy; and attitudes toward...
TL;DR: In this article, a review of existing literature on non-bank finance in China is presented, placing it into context and raising the main questions that must be answered in future work.
Abstract: As in many other developing countries, Chinese businesses and individuals frequently fund transactions using informal, unmonitored financial methods. The impact of this phenomenon is both positive and negative: positive when funds are used for legitimate purposes, such as providing much needed working capital for businesses, and negative when funds are used for illegitimate and/or illegal purposes, such as to finance criminal activity or launder proceeds of crime. There is a dearth of literature and research on this topic. Further study is necessary to understand the precise political, economic and social reasons for this diversity of non-bank financing and its legal and economic implications. This paper aims to pave the ground for such research and analytical work by reviewing the existing literature, placing it into context and raising the main questions that must be answered in future work.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the prospects for solidarity, defined as an ethos of collective responsibility that works across a political community's normative values and policy decisions, as a unifying idea that can inspire and promote steps toward regional political community across East Asia.
Abstract: This article examines prospects for solidarity, defined as an ethos of collective responsibility that works across a political community's normative values and policy decisions, as a unifying idea that can inspire and promote steps toward regional political community across East Asia. Just as the European Union's (EU) founders and its past and present visionaries have appealed consistently to an inclusive, transnational model of solidarity in framing and pursuing European integration, notions of solidarity also contain important affinities with prospects for building an East Asian community. First, the paper examines how the idea of solidarity has evolved in European political thought and especially how solidarity has emerged repeatedly as one of the important concepts throughout the political development of the EU. Then, the paper turns to East Asia and considers the relevance of solidarity as an important principle in aspirations and endeavors toward the creation of an East Asian community. We ...
TL;DR: In this paper, Thailand's position on RtoP through in-depth interviews with those currently working most closely with RTOP-related issues within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Hum...
Abstract: The paper reviews Thailand's position on RtoP through in-depth interviews with those currently working most closely with RtoP-related issues within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Hum...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the ways in which Japan manages its bilateral relationship with the USA, focusing particularly on the management of this core bilateral relationship from a Japanese perspective and within two mechanisms of global governance, collectively referred to as GX summitry.
Abstract: This article explores the ways in which Japan manages its bilateral relationship with the USA. It contributes to the extant literature on Japan–USA bilateral relations by focusing particularly upon the management of this core bilateral relationship from a Japanese perspective and within two mechanisms of global governance, the G8 and G20 summits, collectively referred to as GX summitry. Specifically, the article highlights the various strategies and tactics instrumentalized by Japan in managing its bilateral relationship with the USA in this context, in addition to evaluating how successful they have been and contrasting them with the strategies adopted by the UK as another member of the G8 and G20 that maintains a ‘special relationship’ with the USA.
TL;DR: Ma Ying-jeou's re-election means that there will not be a leadership change in Taiwan, but it still has significant implications as mentioned in this paper, as it forces the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to work out a succession for itself and confront the political reality that it must now persuade voters in Taiwan that it can manage relations with mainland China effectively to win the presidency again.
Abstract: Ma Ying-jeou's re-election means that there will not be a leadership change in Taiwan, but it still has significant implications. It forces the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to work out a succession for itself and confront the political reality that it must now persuade voters in Taiwan that it can manage relations with mainland China effectively in order to win the presidency again. It also requires Ma to define clearly the limits of his mainland policy in order to minimize Beijing's expectations of his second term, as no president of Taiwan can agree to move towards political integration without a popular mandate. On its part, Beijing has taken on board the significance of Taiwan's electoral cycle for managing cross-Strait ties and will put pressure on Ma to move forward over political integration and thus reduce the scope for a future DPP administration to reverse course. This notwithstanding, Beijing's Taiwan policy will ultimately be determined more by the result of the leade...