Showing papers in "Perspectives on Psychological Science in 2011"

Amazon's Mechanical Turk A New Source of Inexpensive, Yet High-Quality, Data?

Abstract: Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) is a relatively new website that contains the major elements required to conduct research: an integrated participant compensation system; a large participant pool; and a streamlined process of study design, participant recruitment, and data collection. In this article, we describe and evaluate the potential contributions of MTurk to psychology and other social sciences. Findings indicate that (a) MTurk participants are slightly more demographically diverse than are standard Internet samples and are significantly more diverse than typical American college samples; (b) participation is affected by compensation rate and task length, but participants can still be recruited rapidly and inexpensively; (c) realistic compensation rates do not affect data quality; and (d) the data obtained are at least as reliable as those obtained via traditional methods. Overall, MTurk can be used to obtain high-quality data inexpensively and rapidly.

How Does Mindfulness Meditation Work? Proposing Mechanisms of Action From a Conceptual and Neural Perspective

Abstract: Cultivation of mindfulness, the nonjudgmental awareness of experiences in the present moment, produces beneficial effects on well-being and ameliorates psychiatric and stress-related symptoms. Mindfulness meditation has therefore increasingly been incorporated into psychotherapeutic interventions. Although the number of publications in the field has sharply increased over the last two decades, there is a paucity of theoretical reviews that integrate the existing literature into a comprehensive theoretical framework. In this article, we explore several components through which mindfulness meditation exerts its effects: (a) attention regulation, (b) body awareness, (c) emotion regulation (including reappraisal and exposure, extinction, and reconsolidation), and (d) change in perspective on the self. Recent empirical research, including practitioners’ self-reports and experimental data, provides evidence supporting these mechanisms. Functional and structural neuroimaging studies have begun to explore the neuroscientific processes underlying these components. Evidence suggests that mindfulness practice is associated with neuroplastic changes in the anterior cingulate cortex, insula, temporo-parietal junction, fronto-limbic network, and default mode network structures. The authors suggest that the mechanisms described here work synergistically, establishing a process of enhanced self-regulation. Differentiating between these components seems useful to guide future basic research and to specifically target areas of development in the treatment of psychological disorders.

Rebooting Psychotherapy Research and Practice to Reduce the Burden of Mental Illness

Abstract: Psychological interventions to treat mental health issues have developed remarkably in the past few decades. Yet this progress often neglects a central goal-namely, to reduce the burden of mental illness and related conditions. The need for psychological services is enormous, and only a small proportion of individuals in need actually receive treatment. Individual psychotherapy, the dominant model of treatment delivery, is not likely to be able to meet this need. Despite advances, mental health professionals are not likely to reduce the prevalence, incidence, and burden of mental illness without a major shift in intervention research and clinical practice. A portfolio of models of delivery will be needed. We illustrate various models of delivery to convey opportunities provided by technology, special settings and nontraditional service providers, self-help interventions, and the media. Decreasing the burden of mental illness also will depend on integrating prevention and treatment, developing assessment and a national database for monitoring mental illness and its burdens, considering contextual issues that influence delivery of treatment, and addressing potential tensions within the mental health professions. Finally, opportunities for multidisciplinary collaborations are discussed as key considerations for reducing the burden of mental illness.

Bayesian versus Orthodox statistics: which side are you on?

Abstract: Researchers are often confused about what can be inferred from significance tests. One problem occurs when people apply Bayesian intuitions to significance testing—two approaches that must be firmly separated. This article presents some common situations in which the approaches come to different conclusions; you can see where your intuitions initially lie. The situations include multiple testing, deciding when to stop running participants, and when a theory was thought of relative to finding out results. The interpretation of nonsignificant results has also been persistently problematic in a way that Bayesian inference can clarify. The Bayesian and orthodox approaches are placed in the context of different notions of rationality, and I accuse myself and others as having been irrational in the way we have been using statistics on a key notion of rationality. The reader is shown how to apply Bayesian inference in practice, using free online software, to allow more coherent inferences from data.

Building a Better America—One Wealth Quintile at a Time:

Abstract: Disagreements about the optimal level of wealth inequality underlie policy debates ranging from taxation to welfare. We attempt to insert the desires of "regular" Americans into these debates, by asking a nationally representative online panel to estimate the current distribution of wealth in the United States and to "build a better America" by constructing distributions with their ideal level of inequality. First, respondents dramatically underestimated the current level of wealth inequality. Second, respondents constructed ideal wealth distributions that were far more equitable than even their erroneously low estimates of the actual distribution. Most important from a policy perspective, we observed a surprising level of consensus: All demographic groups-even those not usually associated with wealth redistribution such as Republicans and the wealthy-desired a more equal distribution of wealth than the status quo.

Statistical Evidence in Experimental Psychology An Empirical Comparison Using 855 t Tests

Abstract: Statistical inference in psychology has traditionally relied heavily on p-value significance testing. This approach to drawing conclusions from data, however, has been widely criticized, and two types of remedies have been advocated. The first proposal is to supplement p values with complementary measures of evidence, such as effect sizes. The second is to replace inference with Bayesian measures of evidence, such as the Bayes factor. The authors provide a practical comparison of p values, effect sizes, and default Bayes factors as measures of statistical evidence, using 855 recently published t tests in psychology. The comparison yields two main results. First, although p values and default Bayes factors almost always agree about what hypothesis is better supported by the data, the measures often disagree about the strength of this support; for 70% of the data sets for which the p value falls between .01 and .05, the default Bayes factor indicates that the evidence is only anecdotal. Second, effect sizes can provide additional evidence to p values and default Bayes factors. The authors conclude that the Bayesian approach is comparatively prudent, preventing researchers from overestimating the evidence in favor of an effect.

Arousal-biased competition in perception and memory

Abstract: Our everyday surroundings besiege us with information. The battle is for a share of our limited attention and memory, with the brain selecting the winners and discarding the losers. Previous research shows that both bottom-up and top-down factors bias competition in favor of high priority stimuli. We propose that arousal during an event increases this bias both in perception and in long-term memory of the event. Arousal-biased competition theory provides specific predictions about when arousal will enhance memory for events and when it will impair it, which accounts for some puzzling contradictions in the emotional memory literature.

A Heuristic for Developing Transdiagnostic Models of Psychopathology Explaining Multifinality and Divergent Trajectories

Abstract: Transdiagnostic models of psychopathology are increasingly prominent because they focus on fundamental processes underlying multiple disorders, help to explain comorbidity among disorders, and may lead to more effective assessment and treatment of disorders. Current transdiagnostic models, however, have difficulty simultaneously explaining the mechanisms by which a transdiagnostic risk factor leads to multiple disorders (i.e., multifinality) and why one individual with a particular transdiagnostic risk factor develops one set of symptoms while another with the same transdiagnostic risk factor develops another set of symptoms (i.e., divergent trajectories). In this article, we propose a heuristic for developing transdiagnostic models that can guide theorists in explicating how a transdiagnostic risk factor results in both multifinality and divergent trajectories. We also (a) describe different levels of transdiagnostic factors and their relative theoretical and clinical usefulness, (b) suggest the types of mechanisms by which factors at 1 level may be related to factors at other levels, and (c) suggest the types of moderating factors that may determine whether a transdiagnostic factor leads to certain specific disorders or symptoms and not others. We illustrate this heuristic using research on rumination, a process for which there is evidence it is a transdiagnostic risk factor.

Whites See Racism as a Zero-Sum Game That They Are Now Losing

Abstract: Although some have heralded recent political and cultural developments as signaling the arrival of a postracial era in America, several legal and social controversies regarding ‘‘reverse racism’’ highlight Whites’ increasing concern about anti-White bias. We show that this emerging belief reflects Whites’ view of racism as a zero-sum game, such that decreases in perceived bias against Blacks over the past six decades are associated with increases in perceived bias against Whites—a relationship not observed in Blacks’ perceptions. Moreover, these changes in Whites’ conceptions of racism are extreme enough that Whites have now come to view anti-White bias as a bigger societal problem than anti-Black bias.

Too Much of a Good Thing The Challenge and Opportunity of the Inverted U

Abstract: Aristotle proposed that to achieve happiness and success, people should cultivate virtues at mean or intermediate levels between deficiencies and excesses. In stark contrast to this assertion that virtues have costs at high levels, a wealth of psychological research has focused on demonstrating the well-being and performance benefits of positive traits, states, and experiences. This focus has obscured the prevalence and importance of nonmonotonic inverted-U-shaped effects, whereby positive phenomena reach inflection points at which their effects turn negative. We trace the evidence for nonmonotonic effects in psychology and provide recommendations for conceptual and empirical progress. We conclude that for psychology in general and positive psychology in particular, Aristotle’s idea of the mean may serve as a useful guide for developing both a descriptive and a prescriptive account of happiness and success.

A Dark Side of Happiness? How, When, and Why Happiness Is Not Always Good

Abstract: Happiness is generally considered a source of good outcomes. Research has highlighted the ways in which happiness facilitates the pursuit of important goals, contributes to vital social bonds, broadens people’s scope of attention, and increases well-being and psychological health. However, is happiness always a good thing? This review suggests that the pursuit and experience of happiness might sometimes lead to negative outcomes. We focus on four questions regarding this purported ‘‘dark side’’ of happiness. First, is there a wrong degree of happiness? Second, is there a wrong time for happiness? Third, are there wrong ways to pursue happiness? Fourth, are there wrong types of happiness? Cumulatively, these lines of research suggest that although happiness is often highly beneficial, it may not be beneficial at every level, in every context, for every reason, and in every variety.

The Hungry Mind: Intellectual Curiosity Is the Third Pillar of Academic Performance

Abstract: Over the past century, academic performance has become the gatekeeper to institutions of higher education, shaping career paths and individual life trajectories. Accordingly, much psychological research has focused on identifying predictors of academic performance, with intelligence and effort emerging as core determinants. In this article, we propose expanding on the traditional set of predictors by adding a third agency: intellectual curiosity. A series of path models based on a meta-analytically derived correlation matrix showed that (a) intelligence is the single most powerful predictor of academic performance; (b) the effects of intelligence on academic performance are not mediated by personality traits; (c) intelligence, Conscientiousness (as marker of effort), and Typical Intellectual Engagement (as marker of intellectual curiosity) are direct, correlated predictors of academic performance; and (d) the additive predictive effect of the personality traits of intellectual curiosity and effort rival that the influence of intelligence. Our results highlight that a “hungry mind” is a core determinant of individual differences in academic achievement.

Bayesian Assessment of Null Values Via Parameter Estimation and Model Comparison

Abstract: Psychologists have been trained to do data analysis by asking whether null values can be rejected. Is the difference between groups nonzero? Is choice accuracy not at chance level? These questions have been traditionally addressed by null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). NHST has deep problems that are solved by Bayesian data analysis. As psychologists transition to Bayesian data analysis, it is natural to ask how Bayesian analysis assesses null values. The article explains and evaluates two different Bayesian approaches. One method involves Bayesian model comparison (and uses Bayes factors). The second method involves Bayesian parameter estimation and assesses whether the null value falls among the most credible values. Which method to use depends on the specific question that the analyst wants to answer, but typically the estimation approach (not using Bayes factors) provides richer information than the model comparison approach.

Evolutionary Theory and the Ultimate–Proximate Distinction in the Human Behavioral Sciences

Abstract: To properly understand behavior, we must obtain both ultimate and proximate explanations. Put briefly, ultimate explanations are concerned with why a behavior exists, and proximate explanations are concerned with how it works. These two types of explanation are complementary and the distinction is critical to evolutionary explanation. We are concerned that they have become conflated in some areas of the evolutionary literature on human behavior. This article brings attention to these issues. We focus on three specific areas: the evolution of cooperation, transmitted culture, and epigenetics. We do this to avoid confusion and wasted effort-dangers that are particularly acute in interdisciplinary research. Throughout this article, we suggest ways in which misunderstanding may be avoided in the future.

Cognitive Bias Modification: Past Perspectives, Current Findings, and Future Applications

Abstract: Research conducted within the general paradigm of cognitive bias modification (CBM) reveals that emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory are not merely associated with emotional disorders but contribute to them. After briefly describing research on both emotional biases and their modification, the authors examine similarities between CBM paradigms and older experimental paradigms used in research on learning and memory. The techniques and goals of CBM research are compared with other approaches to understanding cognition-emotion interactions. From a functional perspective, the CBM tradition reminds us to use experimental tools to evaluate assumptions about clinical phenomena and, more generally, about causal relationships between cognitive processing and emotion.

The Situated Inference Model An Integrative Account of the Effects of Primes on Perception, Behavior, and Motivation

Abstract: The downstream consequences of a priming induction range from changes in the perception of objects in the environment to the initiation of prime-related behavior and goal striving Although each of these outcomes has been accounted for by separate mechanisms, we argue that a single process could produce all three priming effects In this article, we introduce the situated inference model of priming, discuss its potential to account for these divergent outcomes with one mechanism, and demonstrate its ability to organize the priming literatures surrounding these effects According to the model, primes often do not cause direct effects, instead altering only the accessibility of prime-related mental content This information produces downstream effects on judgment, behavior, or motivation when it is mistakenly viewed as originating from one’s own internal thought processes When this misattribution occurs, the prime-related mental content becomes a possible source of information for solving whatever problems are afforded by the current situation Because different situations afford very different questions and concerns, the inferred meaning of this prime-related content can vary greatly The use of this information to answer qualitatively different questions can lead a single prime to produce varied effects on judgment, behavior, and motivation

Self-Talk and Sports Performance: A Meta-Analysis

Abstract: Based on the premise that what people think influences their actions, self-talk strategies have been developed to direct and facilitate human performance. In this article, we present a meta-analytic review of the effects of self-talk interventions on task performance in sport and possible factors that may moderate the effectiveness of self-talk. A total of 32 studies yielding 62 effect sizes were included in the final meta-analytic pool. The analysis revealed a positive moderate effect size (ES = .48). The moderator analyses showed that self-talk interventions were more effective for tasks involving relatively fine, compared with relatively gross, motor demands, and for novel, compared with well-learned, tasks. Instructional self-talk was more effective for fine tasks than was motivational self-talk; moreover, instructional self-talk was more effective for fine tasks rather than gross tasks. Finally, interventions including self-talk training were more effective than those not including self-talk training...

Why the cognitive approach in psychology would profit from a functional approach and vice versa.

Abstract: Cognitively oriented psychologists often define behavioral effects in terms of mental constructs (e.g., classical conditioning as a change in behavior that is due to the formation of associations in memory) and thus effectively treat those effects as proxies for mental constructs. This practice can, however, hamper scientific progress. I argue that if psychologists would consistently define behavioral effects only in terms of the causal impact of elements in the environment (e.g., classical conditioning as a change in behavior that is due to the pairing of stimuli), they would adopt a functional approach that not only reveals the environmental causes of behavior but also optimizes cognitive research. The cognitive approach in turn strengthens the functional approach by facilitating the discovery of new causal relations between the environment and behavior. I thus propose a functional-cognitive framework for research in psychology that capitalizes on the mutually supportive nature of the functional and cognitive approaches in psychology.

Voodoo Correlations Are Everywhere—Not Only in Neuroscience:

Abstract: A recent set of articles in Perspectives on Psychological Science discussed inflated correlations between brain measures and behavioral criteria when measurement points (voxels) are deliberately selected to maximize criterion correlations (the target article was Vul, Harris, Winkielman, & Pashler, 2009). However, closer inspection reveals that this problem is only a special symptom of a broader methodological problem that characterizes all paradigmatic research, not just neuroscience. Researchers not only select voxels to inflate effect size, they also select stimuli, task settings, favorable boundary conditions, dependent variables and independent variables, treatment levels, moderators, mediators, and multiple parameter settings in such a way that empirical phenomena become maximally visible and stable. In general, paradigms can be understood as conventional setups for producing idealized, inflated effects. Although the feasibility of representative designs is restricted, a viable remedy lies in a reorientation of paradigmatic research from the visibility of strong effect sizes to genuine validity and scientific scrutiny.

Divorce and Death A Meta-Analysis and Research Agenda for Clinical, Social, and Health Psychology

Abstract: Divorce is a relatively common stressful life event that is purported to increase risk for all-cause mortality. One problem in the literature on divorce and health is that it is fragmented and spread across many disciplines; most prospective studies of mortality are based in epidemiology and sociology, whereas most mechanistic studies are based in psychology. This review integrates research on divorce and death via meta-analysis and outlines a research agenda for better understanding the potential mechanisms linking marital dissolution and risk for all-cause mortality. Random effects meta-analysis with a sample of 32 prospective studies (involving more than 6.5 million people, 160,000 deaths, and over 755,000 divorces in 11 different countries) revealed a significant increase in risk for early death among separated/divorced adults in comparison to their married counterparts. Men and younger adults evidenced significantly greater risk for early death following marital separation/divorce than did women and older adults. Quantification of the overall effect size linking marital separation/divorce to risk for early death reveals a number of important research questions, and this article discusses what remains to be learned about four plausible mechanisms of action: social selection, resource disruptions, changes in health behaviors, and chronic psychological distress.

Drunk, Powerful, and in the Dark: How General Processes of Disinhibition Produce Both Prosocial and Antisocial Behavior.

Abstract: Social power, alcohol intoxication, and anonymity all have strong influences on human cognition and behavior. However, the social consequences of each of these conditions can be diverse, sometimes producing prosocial outcomes and other times enabling antisocial behavior. We present a general model of disinhibition to explain how these seemingly contradictory effects emerge from a single underlying mechanism: The decreased salience of competing response options prevents activation of the Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS). As a result, the most salient response in any given situation is expressed, regardless of whether it has prosocial or antisocial consequences. We review three distinct routes through which power, alcohol intoxication, and anonymity reduce the salience of competing response options, namely, through Behavioral Approach System (BAS) activation, cognitive depletion, and reduced social desirability concerns. We further discuss how these states can both reveal and shape the person. Overall, ou...

Mirror Neuron Forum

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Research Strategy in the Study of Memory: Fads, Fallacies, and the Search for the "Coordinates of Truth".

Abstract: This article presents an evaluation of research strategy in the psychology of memory. To the extent that a strategy can be discerned, it appears less than optimal in several respects. It relates only weakly to subjective experience, it does not clearly differentiate between structure and strategy, and it is oriented more toward remembering which words were in a list than to the diverse functions that memory serves. This last limitation fosters assumptions about memory that are false: that encoding and retrieval are distinct modes of operation; that the effects of repetition, duration, and recency are interchangeable; and that memory is ahistorical. Theories that parsimoniously explain data from single tasks will never generalize to memory as a whole because their core assumptions are too limited. Instead, memory theory should be based on a broad variety of evidence. Using findings from several memory tasks and observations of everyday memory, I suggest some ways in which involuntary reminding plays a cent...

Is It All Relative?: Comparative Judgments and the Possible Improvement of Self-Ratings and Ratings of Others

Abstract: We argue that various types of evaluative social judgments about the self or others (e.g., employee job performance ratings, self-reported attitudes, ratings of others' traits) may be obtained more accurately using comparative ratings rather than absolute ratings. Comparative ratings involve relative judgments of a target in comparison with other individuals or groups, whereas absolute ratings involve judgments of a target on scales that do not explicitly reference other people. In industrial-organizational, social, and personality psychology research that has compared the validity of comparative and absolute ratings, we have found evidence of more valid measurement as a result of comparative judgmental ratings, despite the nearly exclusive reliance on absolute judgmental ratings in these areas. We offer a social cognitive and evolutionary explanation in support of the hypothesis that humans may often be able to make more accurate ratings using comparative measures. We also recommend an agenda for greater exploitation and understanding of relative judgments in psychological research and practice.

The Chain of Being: A Hierarchy of Morality.

Abstract: For centuries, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have used the idea of the Great Chain of Being to rank all beings, from demons to animals, humans, and gods, along a vertical dimension of morality. Although the idea of a chain of being has largely fallen out of academic favor, we propose that people still use an embodied vertical moral hierarchy to understand their moral world. This social cognitive chain of being (SCCB) encapsulates a range of research on moral perception including dehumanization (the perception of people as lower on the SCCB), anthropomorphism (the perception of animals as higher and the perceptions of gods as lower on the SCCB), and sanctification (the perception of people as higher on the SCCB). Moral emotions provide affective evidence that guide the perception of social targets as moral (e.g., elevation) or immoral (e.g., disgust). Perceptions of social targets along the SCCB enable people to fulfill group and self-serving, effectance, and existential motivations. The SCCB serves as a unifying theoretical framework that organizes research on moral perception, highlights unique interconnections, and provides a roadmap for future research.

Can Sex Differences in Science Be Tied to the Long Reach of Prenatal Hormones? Brain Organization Theory, Digit Ratio (2D/4D), and Sex Differences in Preferences and Cognition

Abstract: Brain organization theory posits a cascade of physiological and behavioral changes initiated and shaped by prenatal hormones. Recently, this theory has been associated with outcomes including gendered toy preference, 2D/4D digit ratio, personality characteristics, sexual orientation, and cognitive profile (spatial, verbal, and mathematical abilities). We examine the evidence for this claim, focusing on 2D/4D and its putative role as a biomarker for organizational features that influence cognitive abilities/interests predisposing males toward mathematically and spatially intensive careers. Although massive support exists for early brain organization theory overall, there are myriad inconsistencies, alternative explanations, and outright contradictions that must be addressed while still taking the entire theory into account. Like a fractal within the larger theory, the 2D/4D hypothesis mirrors this overall support on a smaller scale while likewise suffering from inconsistencies (positive, negative, and sex-...

Causation From Perception

Abstract: Beginning with the research of Albert Michotte, investigators have identified simple perceptual events that observers report as causal. For example, suppose a square moves across a screen and comes to a halt when it makes contact with a second square. If the second square then begins moving in the same direction, observers sometimes report that the first square “pushed” the second or “caused it to move.” Based on such reports, Michotte claimed that people perceive causality, and a number of psychologists and philosophers have followed his lead. This article examines Michotte’s hypothesis by comparing it with its chief rival: Observers possess representations of pushings, pullings, and other events in long-term memory. A Michottean display triggers one of these representations, and the representation classifies the display as an instance of pushing (or pulling, etc.). According to this second explanation, recognizing an event as a pushing is similar to classifying an object as a cup or a dog. Data relevant...

Individual Differences in Developmental Plasticity May Result From Stochastic Sampling

Abstract: The ability to adjust developmental trajectories based on experience is widespread in nature, including in humans. This plasticity is often adaptive, tailoring individuals to their local environment. However, it is less clear why some individuals are more sensitive to environmental influences than others. Explanations include differences in genes and differences in prior experiences. In this article, we present a novel hypothesis in the latter category. In some developmental domains, individuals must learn about the state of their environment before adapting accordingly. Because sampling environmental cues is a stochastic process, some individuals may receive a homogeneous sample, resulting in a confident estimate about the state of the world—these individuals specialize early. Other individuals may receive a heterogeneous, uninformative set of cues—those individuals will keep sampling. As a consequence, individual variation in plasticity may result from different degrees of confidence about the state of ...

Best Friends Alliances, Friend Ranking, and the MySpace Social Network

Abstract: Like many topics of psychological research, the explanation for friendship is at once intuitive and difficult to address empirically. These difficulties worsen when one seeks, as we do, to go beyond "obvious" explanations ("humans are social creatures") to ask deeper questions, such as "What is the evolved function of human friendship?" In recent years, however, a new window into human behavior has opened as a growing fraction of people's social activity has moved online, leaving a wealth of digital traces behind. One example is a feature of the MySpace social network that allows millions of users to rank their "Top Friends." In this study, we collected over 10 million people's friendship decisions from MySpace to test predictions made by hypotheses about human friendship. We found particular support for the alliance hypothesis, which holds that human friendship is caused by cognitive systems that function to create alliances for potential disputes. Because an ally's support can be undermined by a stronger outside relationship, the alliance model predicts that people will prefer partners who rank them above other friends. Consistent with the alliance model, we found that an individual's choice of best friend in MySpace is strongly predicted by how partners rank that individual.

A Theory of Sex Differences in Technical Aptitude and Some Supporting Evidence

Abstract: In this article, I present a theory that explains the origin of sex differences in technical aptitudes. The theory takes as proven that there are no sex differences in general mental ability (GMA), and it postulates that sex differences in technical aptitude (TA) stem from differences in experience in technical areas, which is in turn based on sex differences in technical interests. Using a large data set, I tested and found support for four predictions made by this theory: (a) the construct level correlation between technical aptitude and GMA is larger for females than males, (b) the observed and true score variability of technical aptitude is greater among males than females, (c) at every level of GMA females have lower levels of technical aptitude, and (d) technical aptitude measures used as estimates of GMA for decision purposes would result in underestimation of GMA levels for girls and women. Given that GMA carries the weight of prediction of job performance, the support found for this last prediction suggests that, for many jobs, technical aptitude tests may underpredict the job performance of female applicants and employees. Future research should examine this question.