Showing papers in "Population and Development Review in 1992"

Climate change : the IPCC scientific assessment

Abstract: Book review of the intergovernmental panel on climate change report on global warming and the greenhouse effect. Covers the scientific basis for knowledge of the future climate. Presents chemistry of greenhouse gases and mathematical modelling of the climate system. The book is primarily for government policy makers.

Fertility Decline in Africa: A New Type of Transition?

Abstract: Botswana Zimbabwe and Kenya appeared in 1990 to be experiencing fertility declines of 15-25% and there is some 1991 evidence that parts of Nigeria experienced fertility declines of over 10%. These trends are in contrast to the widely held belief that sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world not experiencing fertility transition. The nature of the African fertility transition is characterized and the reasons for resistance to fertility decline are summarized. The type of fertility transition specific to Africa is discussed and followed by a detailed account of the 1990 Ado-Ekiti Fertility Study in Ondo State in northeastern Nigeria. The study is presented in terms of the contraceptive providers the population surveyed social changes occurring in the region the use of contraception among unmarried women and the demand for fertility control. The Ado-Ekiti experience suggests that contraceptive use has increased due to a National Population Policy which has provided a plentiful supply of a variety of methods through family planning clinics and private distributors and has legitimized family planning for women as a moral right. Availability of family planning methods was not the only influence on fertility reduction. There had been unmet demand for 20 years and massive economic and social change. There arose a demand by young unmarried women for fertility control as age at marriage increased. Female education affected young unmarrieds and married women who substituted contraception for abstinence for birth spacing. Urbanization was another influence fed by economic growth. The Ado-Ekiti experience suggests that contraceptives should be readily available to all particularly young single teenage girls and women for child spacing; women must be recognized as leaders in urging and practing contraception even without their partners knowledge. Privacy in obtaining supplies must be provided. The rising demand is being fed by education and an increasingly modern economy. The unique feature of Africas transition is the uniformity among all ages; the patterns will not follow the Asian or European pattern.

International migration systems: a global approach.

Abstract: Global interactions, migration systems, processes, and policies, Mary M. Kritz and Hania Zlotnik. Part 1 Global and regional migration systems: empirical identification of international migration systems, Hania Zlotnik international migration in the South Pacific region, Richard Bedford the West African migration system, Paulina Makinwa-Adebusoye migration and interdependence - the migration system between France and Africa, Jean-Pierre Garson Caribbean exodus and the world system, Alan B. Simmons and Jean Pierre Guengant the role of migration policies and social networks in the development of a migration system in the Southern Cone, Jorge Balan. Part 2 Processes linking origin and destination countries: international labour movements - a perspective on economic exchanges and flows, Lin Lean Lim migration networks and the shaping of migration systems, Douglas T.Gurak and Fe Caces the use of social networks in Turkish migration to Germany, Czarina Wilpert the mobilization of labour migrants in Thailand: personal links and facilitating networks, Anchalee Singhanetra-Renard the contribution of remittances to economic and social development, Fred Arnold science and technology transfers and migration flows, Mary M. Kritz and Fe Caces. Part 3 Policy issues underlying international migration: laws and policies regulating population movements: a European perspective, Tomas Hammar contemporary labour migration from Asia: policies and perspectives of sending countries, Manolo I. Abella institutional and policy interactions among countries and refugee flows, Jacqueline Desbarats evolution of policy modes for regulating international labour migration, Mark J. Miller labour migration and international economic regimes - Bretton Woods and after Aristide R. Zolberg.

Understanding morbidity change.

Abstract: The authors develop an approach to morbidity definition and measurement review specific methods and present a framework for classifying different types of morbidity indicators. They examine various approaches to the interactions between morbidity and mortality change illustrating these with selected data from India the United States and Ghana. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

The decline of mortality in Europe.

Abstract: This is a review of the literature on the causes of the mortality decline that began in Europe in the eighteenth century. It includes consideration not only of published studies in general but also of papers published in the same volume as this paper. (ANNOTATION)

The Process of Marriage in African Societies: A Multiple Indicator Approach

Abstract: This article demonstrates the use of multiple indicators of union formation to study marriage customs in African societies. While previous studies of African marriage generally provide information only on type of union as self-reported this study uses information from the 1980-81 Cote dIvoire Fertility Survey to develop a more detailed typology of marital unions based on the sequence of events in the union formation process. This new classification incorporates information on the processual nature of Ivorian unions and more adequately reflects the diversity of marital systems practiced in Cote dIvoire. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

Population Growth and Global Warming

Abstract: THE AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE during the 1980s exceeded that of any other decade since reliable temperature recording began a century ago, and 1990 was the warmest year on record (Hansen, 1991). This unusual period of global warming has sparked a vigorous debate about its causes. A number of scientists claim that the "greenhouse effect"-a rise in the global temperature induced by the build-up of manmade gases in the atmosphere-is the main cause. Others point to the substantial natural variability in the past temperature record and call for further research before attempting to draw firm conclusions or take drastic action. Despite these uncertainties, many governments consider the potentially severe consequences of continued global warming over the next century a sufficiently serious threat to warrant immediate remedial action (Benedick et al., 1991). International negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations have been conducted to reach an agreement to reduce the growth of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. These efforts have resulted in a convention on climate change that was signed at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The ongoing policy debate about responses to the expected future global warming is guided by extensive scientific studies. Hundreds of scientists have taken part in recent assessments of the potential for manmade climate change and policy options (e.g., IPCC, 1990a,b; NAS, 1991; EPA, 1990a,b). These reports are in agreement on the following key issues: Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases produced by natural processes were present in the atmosphere long before the role of humans became significant. By partially blocking the infrared radiation originating from the earth, these gases have kept the globe warmer (by about 32?C) than would be the case in their absence. The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is rising as the result of a variety of human activities, of which the burning of fossil fuels is

Period paramount? A critique of the cohort approach to fertility

Abstract: The aim of this discussion of cohort and period fertility estimation was to clarify the issue and resolve the conflict between 2 approaches. The typical view of these approaches is that fluctuations in period fertility represented in the total fertility rate (TFR) are due to the timing and pace of cohort fertility; these TFR changes distort. TFR appears high when the pace of cohort fertility increases. This tempo component of fertility must be removed through adjustment in cohort and period measures. Intercohort change reflects the true time path of fertility. The conventional view has been comprehensively discussed by such persons as Hajnal and others who have pointed out that age specific fertility rates are more consistent in period than in cohort analysis. The weight of statistical evidence supports the notion that all birth and marriage cohorts react as a single unit to the factors that determine the general level of fertility at that time. The cohort approach continues to be used because it offers more options for interpretation complements period analysis and has stronger arguments for its use. The resilience in the use of the cohort approach was examined historically by focusing on the demographic role of the cohort perspective and identifying the parts of current thinking on the demography of the period/cohort issue. Ryder has concertedly argued that fertility is affected by past reproductive history or life cycle stage that cohorts are distinctive that theories of fertility use a cohort framework that time series of cohort TFRs are smoother that the cohort framework is a natural approach to behavior and that changes in cohort fertility reflect changes in period amount. Several other views are indicated but the 6 arguments are discussed individually at some length. The problems with period fertility are indicated and an alternative approach to fertility measurement is presented: the period parity progression approach not as an index for a period but as the schedule of duration specific probabilities. The data issues and the role for the cohort method are discussed. The conclusion is that the confusion that has arisen is 2-fold: confusion between time trends in fertility and time trends in reproductivity. Confusion has also arisen due to Hajnals solution to short-term fluctuations in period fertility.

Children at Risk: The Role of Family Structure in Latin America and West Africa

Abstract: Many studies explore the relationship between income and nutrient intake. The focus upon households as a whole emerges from a research tradition rooted in the theoretical model of the family and the household proposed by the new household economics which has strongly influenced recent research on the family in both developed and developing countries. This mode however is overly simplistic where applied uniformly to diverse cultures. The author therefore considers the validity of these assumptions of uniform applicability with respect to the family forms and the nutrient available to children found in selected countries in Latin America and West Africa. The author uses demographic and health survey data from Ghana Mali Senegal northeast Brazil Colombia and the Dominican Republic with models of the family proposed by this new household economics to derive hypotheses regarding food available to young children in various household and family arrangements. It is concluded that these models unrealistically predict food and health care available to children because they assume that income or opportunity given to 1 family member translates into improvement in the welfare of all other members. The level of altruism toward children instead varies across cultures families and households. The author points out that these findings demonstrate the urgent need to develop alternative models of the family and notes that Nashs bargaining models have presented the most persistent challenge to neoclassical models of the family.

Islam Women and Politics: The Demography of Arab Countries

Abstract: This article examines three propositions that underlie many interpretations of the demography of Arab countries: that Arab countries do poorly in terms of demographic indicators that this is due to Islam and that the impact of Islam operates through the way in which it defines a low status for women. After reviewing the available data on fertility and health the article critically examines the claim that the high natality of Arab countries derives directly from religious doctrine or indirectly through Islams effect on the status of women. It argues that simplistic hypotheses linking Islam and the status of women cannot provide a satisfactory explanation for observed demographic patterns and that a better understanding of demographic change must include attention to the political context of fertility and health behavior. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

Patterns and trends of international migration in Western Europe.

Abstract: The authors review patterns and trends in international migration to Western Europe with a focus on flows to France Switzerland the United Kingdom and West Germany. They find that migration "patterns can be explained by historical linguistic cultural and economic factors. In addition to these factors patterns of immigration are shaped by internal political decisions (especially policies concerning foreign labor recruitment) and by economic political and demographic developments that take place outside Western Europe." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

The Agenda of Population Studies: A Commentary and Complaint

Abstract: Since 1950 modern demographic history has witnessed more than a doubling of world population a rise of over 15 years in life expectancy and a decline of average total fertility rate from 5 to 3.5 children/woman. The next 79 years will see a final doubling of population size with aging societies. Human aspirations will be constrained by environmental stresses. Demography has roots in classical political economy with malthus as progenitor and is concerned with life tables and actuarial techniques of population dynamics represented by Graunt Halley Deparcieux and Lotka. Demography assesses social change to account for post transition trends in fertility mortality and family structure; the potential human life span; and family decay. Although demographers have dismissed sociobiology behavioral demography examines social economic and cultural behaviors governing fertility and mortality in addition to vital events. Family change in high-fertility Africa or the low-fertility West is highly relevant for forecasting future fertility as are rules of family and household formation labor market practices and the national administrative systems. In the late 1990s and the early 21st century the UNs or World Banks demographic projections assume a smooth demographic transition and thereafter a stationary population. Post-Cold War liberalized economies and multiparty democracies may be left with scant economic and political resources. North-South issues have been sidelined but demographic regimes may be regarded as serious social science if its content is defined by subject matter rather than by methodological approach therefore it should adopt a deliberate eclecticism with cross-disciplinary range.

The impact of fertility decline on familial support for the elderly: an illustration from Thailand.

Abstract: The recent and substantial reduction in the number of children among couples in Thailand is commonly perceived to be one of the most important social changes likely to reduce the extent to which future generations of Thai elderly will be supported by their families. This analysis suggests that the impact of fertility decline per se will be relatively moderate with respect to coresidence the most crucial aspect of familial support....Notwithstanding the very substantial fertility decline few elderly are likely to be childless or to have only one child and elderly parents with at least two children are still quite likely to live with one of them. An important implication of the study is that in settings similar to Thailand the negative effect of lower fertility on familial support for the elderly need not be an overriding concern when deciding whether or not to implement policies to reduce fertility. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

Discovering the Roman Family: Studies in Roman Social History.

Abstract: These essays on family life in ancient Rome offer a timely and provocative new characterization of how this most elementary component of Roman society was structured. Recognizing that a traditional nuclear model is necessary for an understanding of Roman family organization, Keith R. Bradley argues that a broader, more extensive context must be established if this structure is to be fully appreciated. A seminal contribution to Roman social history, this book is essential reading for all interested in how the Roman family worked and lived.

Toward an Ecological Demography

Abstract: An innovative way of looking at demographic patterns is based on paradigms from the fields of behavioral and evolutionary ecology. Just as the analytic techniques of demography have been important to biological investigations the theoretical advances of the last 25 years in biology may offer important perspectives on central problems in demography and provide paths to fruitful ecologically informed solutions. The authors summarize the pertinent theory in behavioral ecology highlight two important differences in the way biologists and demographers partition problems and illustrate how behavioral ecology might contribute to a new understanding of several important issues in classical demography namely natural versus controlled fertility population regulation and allocation of resources to offspring. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

The fortunes of adolescent mothers and their children: the transmission of poverty in Santiago Chile.

Abstract: This study investigates these questions as applied to a group of mostly poor, adolescent mothers in Santiago, Chile. These young women, participants in the early 1980s in an adolescent reproductive health program of the University of Chile's teaching hospital, were first studied by Ramiro Molina and colleagues fromn late 1987 to early 1989. The present study, undertaken in 1991, reinterviewed the group of women and carried out new analyses of the existing data. Extensive evidence from the United States, while controversial, in general shows that the reproduction of poverty in mother-child pairs is more closely related to the loss of the father's income than to the effect of the

Family planning programmes and fertility

Abstract: Part 1 The role of family planning programmes as a fertility determinant: introduction, James F.Phillips and John A. Ross the role of family planning programmes as a fertility determinant, Ronald Freedman and Deborah Freedman methods for measuring programme impact - a review of applications in the last decade, John A. Ross and Cynthia B. Lloyd. Part 2 Theoretical perspectives on the intersection of demand and supply: supply and demand, not supply vs. demand - appropriate theory for the study of the effects of family planning programmes on fertility, George B. Simmons relationships between fertility and individual deamnd and community programme supply - the role of family planning in determining fertility, T.Paul Schultz the influence of contraceptive costs on the demand for children, Warren Robinson and John Cleland the spread of fertility regulation as collective behaviour, Rodolfo A. Bulatao and Eduard Bos. Part 3 Addressing the role of demand: demand for family planning - estimates for developing countries, Charles F. Westoff and Lorenzo Moreno the use of payments and benefits to influence reproductive behaviour, John Cleland and Warren Robinson. Part 4 Addressing the role of supply: the proximate operational determinants of fertility regulation behaviour, Ruth Simmons and James F. Phillips, quality of service, programme efforts and fertility reduction, Anrudh Jain, Judith Bruce and Sushil Kumar service proximity as a determinant of contraceptive behaviour - evidence from cross-national studies of survey data, Amy Ong Tsui and Luis Hernando Ochos. Part 5 Social, institutional, and political constraints to family planning programme effectiveness: constraints on supply and demand for family planning - evidence from Rural Bangladesh, Michael A. Koenig and Ruth Simmons state-society links - political dimensions of population policies and programmes, with special reference to China, Susan Greenhalgh the determinants of impact and utilization of fertility research ion public policy, China and Mexico, Axel I. Mundigo. Part 6 Summary and conclusion: family planning programme sand fertility effects - an overview, James F. Phillips and John A. Ross.

The revival of metropolitan population growth in the United States: an assessment of findings from the 1990 census.

Abstract: In this article we assess metropolitan-area growth patterns in the United States during the 1980s as revealed by 1990 census data. We evaluate these patterns against various explanations that were proposed to account for the altered developed-world redistribution tendencies of the 1970s....Urbanization reasserted itself after the rural renaissance of the 1970s....U.S. metropolitan areas once again grew faster than nonmetropolitan areas and the geography of metropolitan growth displayed some rearrangement. Rapid growth in the South and West continued but its pace slowed considerably in the interior parts of these regions. Large coastal metropolitan areas showed the steadiest gains. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

The Population Debate in American Popular Magazines, 1946-90

Abstract: We have undertaken an extensive review of the American popular literature on population for two reasons. First, a survey of popular perspectives on population change serves as a vehicle for analyzing the structure of the arguments in the larger debate on the issue of population increase. Compared with the academic literature, the popular discussion places greater emphasis on reasons for viewing population growth with alarm or complacency, rather than on evidence supporting those claims. As such, the popular discussion is well suited for analyzing the changing structure of the political and intellectual debate over the desirability of intervention in population processes. Second, an understanding of the evolution of popular attitudes concerning rapid population growth is essential if demographers wish to influence future population policy. We contend that the creation, in the 1960s and later, of an institutional structure for understanding and altering population-related events was made possible in part by the formation of a consensus among the American public that rapid population growth poses a significant threat to collective well-being-not only to the countries expe

International migration and political turmoil in the Middle East.

Abstract: Political turmoil international relations and international migration have been inextricably linked in the Middle East for centuries. In recent decades immigrant labor was recruited to exploit oil resources and to work in social and physical infrastructure projects. A massive influx of labor was witnessed with the oil price increase in 1973 and the relaxation of stringent in-migration policy. Middle Eastern migration however rarely merited international political attention until Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. The author draws upon documentary evidence and interviews with well-informed observers and involved individuals to examine the role of the recent Gulf War in making international migration in that region a key issue in international relations. She reviews the major trends in migration to Kuwait and Iraq from the onset of the oil boom to the eve of Iraqs invasion and discusses the massive population movements which occurred between mid-1990 and mid-1991 and their role in international relations. She also comments on the failure of demographers to inform policymakers about the brewing situation and speculates on reasons for their inaction. Concluding thoughts are given on the future of international migration to the Gulf and what demographers might contribute to the better understanding of expected trends.

The meanings of family and household: change and continuity in the mirror of the American census.

Abstract: U.S. census officials in the 1970s changed the label for the person listed first in a household from head to householder. This essay places this shift in terminology into historical perspective by examining the meanings of family concepts held by census-takers and by the Americans they enumerated. Even in the traditional era of the family roughly before 1800 household headship was more a consequence of other attributes than an independent source of status or power. Both then and in the modern period that followed the implications of being a head or one of the heads of a household depended on the context. While a more individualistic notion of the family has developed there is still considerable continuity in the conceptions of the family. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

Ethnicity and fertility differentials in Peninsular Malaysia: do policies matter?

Abstract: Ethnic groups have had differing demographic responses to economic and population policies in peninsular Malaysia. Of 14 million inhabitants in 1988 58% were Malay 32% Chinese and 10% India. While the national fertility rate began falling in the late 1950s this trend was not uniform over these main ethnic groups. Although the total fertility rate (TFR) for Chinese and Indians steadily declines the TFR for the Malay population leveled off in the mid 1970s. The TFR for Malays reversed from being the lowest among the three ethnic groups in the 1950s to become the highest; the gap between Malay and non-Malay population growth rates has steadily widened since the mid 1970s. Analysis of micro-level data from the first and second Malaysian Family Life surveys of 1976 and 1988 indicate that the New Economic and New Population Policies reduced desired fertility for Chinese and Indians but had a modest pronatalist effect upon Malays. These results clearly demonstrate that differential response to broad-based population policies may change the ethnic composition of populations. Moreover if current policy remains in effect in peninsular Malaysia current demographic trends will most likely persist.

Labour in the South Pacific

Abstract: INTRODUCTIONJacqueline Leckie and Doug Munro1. PREAMBLE Jacqueline LeckieLabour and work is such an essential aspect of people's lives, yet in the Pacific, it has escaped attention as a focus of academic interest. This anomaly is even more striking when we consider that so many Pacific Islanders' lives have been shaped by conditions of labour, particularly through processes of colonial and capitalist expansion into the region. The neglect has been even greater in understanding the meaning of this to Pacific Islanders and their participation and shaping of the labour process in Pacific societies.Some of these gaps in Pacific social sciences were raised by two of the editors, Clive Moore and Jacqueline Leckie, when they attended a conference in 1986 sponsored by the Centre for South-East Asian Studies at James Cook University of North Queensland. One of the issues discussed was the problem of offering programmes in the social sciences which would be relevant to students in the Pacific Islands. From this, it emerged that a common difficulty faced was establishing communications between those academic institutions within the Pacific Islands, those offering similar courses elsewhere and other institutions, such as trade unions, which might find such knowledge of relevance. Moore and Leckie, who were both teaching in the Pacific at that time, were asked to organise a project which might involve co-operation between two far-flung universities, the University of Papua New Guinea and the University of the South Pacific. The result was a decision to bring together a volume which would both survey and penetrate in some depth aspects of labour history in the South Pacific. Later Doug Munro joined the editorial team and he shared the conviction that this volume should not just meet student and academic interests but take a crucial step towards reconstructing the history of the labouring lives of Pacific Islanders. It was partly with this aim, that a section of this book explores aspects of the institutional history of labour, including trade unions, in the Pacific. Originally we had anticipated that some Pacific Islands trade unionists, such as the Henry Moses from Papua New Guinea would contribute a chapter but regrettably he passed away in late 1987. Another prominent labour leader who had given his support to the writing of labour history in the Pacific was the late Dr Timoci Bavadra of Fiji.Ironically, part of the inspiration for this volume was to try to break down the lack of communication in Pacific studies, yet the gestation of this volume provides in itself documentation of the geographically dispersed interest in the Pacific and the mobility of many of its contributors.Pacific history continues to suffer from "monograph myopia", the apt phrase coined by Kerry Howe, to describe the abundance of detailed studies of particular themes, regions and time-periods but the dearth of broad-ranging overviews, and the lack of comparisons with other areas of colonisation. During the 1960s and 1970s labour history was thinly developed within Pacific historiography: it was not a 'people's history' and was seldom compared with labour history from other areas of the world.