Showing papers in "Population and Development Review in 2020"

Living Alone over the Life Course: Cross‐National Variations on an Emerging Issue

Abstract: The increasing proportion of persons living alone has come to be emblematic in many ways of modern Western societies because it represents the importance conceded to the individual and to individual goals at the expense, basically, of the family. Solo living has been interpreted within the context of changing values and preferences, changing personal and conjugal realities, and the changing work contexts so often associated with the Second Demographic Transition. We know little about patterns and trends in living alone over the life course in much of the world because most research to date has concentrated on regional and national portrayals or on living arrangements in later life. This study provides a systematic look at the differences in living alone by age and sex in 113 countries. Our aim is to understand the extent to which behavior differs around the world and the implications this has for society. We also examine the relationship between trends in living alone and levels of human development. Results are taken from three massive datasets: census and survey microdata from IPUMS‐international, Demographic Health Surveys, and EU‐Labor Force Surveys.

Latest-Late Fertility? Decline and Resurgence of Late Parenthood Across the Low-Fertility Countries.

Abstract: After decades of fertility postponement, we investigate recent changes in late parenthood across low-fertility countries in the light of observations from the past. We use long series of age-specific fertility rates from the Human Fertility Database (1950– 2016) for women, and new data covering the period 1990–2016 for men. In 1950, the contribution of births at age 40 and over to female fertility rates ranged from 2.5 to 9 percent, but then fell sharply until the 1980s. From the 1990s, however, the prevalence of late first births increased rapidly, especially so in countries where it was initially lowest. This has produced a late fertility rebound in the last two decades, occurring much faster for women than for men. Comparisons between recent and past extremely late (age 48+) fertility levels confirm that people are now challenging the natural fertility barriers, particularly for a first child.

How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline

Abstract: Education and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing unmet need? Is education or family planning more important? We assessed the quantitative impact of education and family planning in high-fertility settings using a regression framework inspired by Granger causality. We found that women's attainment of lower secondary education is key to accelerating fertility decline and found an accelerating effect of contraceptive prevalence for modern methods. We found the impact of contraceptive prevalence to be substantially larger than that of education. These accelerating effects hold in sub-Saharan Africa, but with smaller effect sizes there than elsewhere.

Poverty, Inequality, and Fertility: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Global Poverty Reduction

Abstract: This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades) through its Academic Excellence and Societal Challenges initiative (Grant Number CSO2017‐87350‐P).

Cycles of Gender Convergence and Divergence in Drug Overdose Mortality.

Abstract: The United States is 25 years into a large-scale drug overdose epidemic, yet its consequences for gender differences remain largely unexplored. This study finds that drug overdose mortality increased seven- and fivefold for men and women, respectively; accounts for 0.8-year (men) and 0.4-year (women) deficits in life expectancy at birth in 2017; and has made an increasing contribution (from 1 percent to 17 percent) to women's life expectancy advantage at the prime adult ages between 1990 and 2017. I document a distinctive cyclicality to sex differences in drug overdose. During the epidemic's early stages - the heyday of prescription opioids - gender differences narrowed, but once the epidemic transitioned to illicit drugs in 2010, gender differences widened again. This pattern holds across racial/ethnic groups, and in fact may be even stronger among Hispanics and non-Hispanic Blacks than among non-Hispanic Whites. That we observe this gender dynamic across racial/ethnic groups is surprising since very different trends in drug overdose mortality have been observed for Whites versus other groups. The contemporary epidemic is a case of dynamic change in gender differences, and the differential mortality risks experienced by men and women reflect gendered social norms, attitudes towards risk, and patterns of diffusion.

Inequality in Human Development across the Globe

Abstract: The Human Development Index is the world's most famous indicator of the level of development of societies. A disadvantage of this index is however that only national values are available, whereas within many countries huge subnational variation in development exists. We therefore have developed the Subnational Human Development Index (SHDI), which shows within‐country variation in human development across the globe. Covering more than 1,600 regions within 161 countries, the SHDI and its underlying dimension indices provide a 10 times higher resolution picture of human development than previously available. The newly observed within‐country variation is particularly strong in low‐ and middle‐developed countries. Education disparities explain most SHDI inequality within low‐developed countries, and standard of living differences are most important within the more highly developed ones. Strong convergence forces operating both across and within countries have compensated the inequality enhancing force of population growth. These changes will shape the twenty‐first century agenda of scientists and policy‐makers concerned with global distributive justice.

Masculinity, Money, and the Postponement of Parenthood in Nigeria

Abstract: In southeastern Nigeria, several interconnected processes of social change are combining to delay parenthood. Most of the demographic and social sciences literature examining the postponement of parenthood has paid primary attention to women. To address this gap, this article foregrounds the changing social landscape of masculinity as a significant context within which to situate these demographic changes. At the core of Nigerian men's perceptions, decisions, and behaviors with regard to delaying fatherhood is a fundamental contradiction, one that seems to be common in many settings-at least many African settings-of contemporary demographic transition. The contradiction is that while the postponement of parenthood seems to be associated historically with positive social and economic indicators, when Nigerian men articulate their rationales for delaying fatherhood (and marriage) they commonly describe feelings of uncertainty connected to a sense of struggle and deprivation. This article connects men's anxieties about-and delays embarking on-marriage and parenthood to their experiences of economic uncertainty, and specifically to the perceived need for money as the foundation for successful reproduction.

Major Socioeconomic Driving Forces of Improving Population Health in China: 1978–2018

Abstract: China's post-Cultural-Revolution reform generated rapid economic growth. But it also brought about major negative changes, especially in the early stage, which jeopardized population health and mortality gains. Nonetheless, improvements continued. China had achieved the Millennium Development Goal target 4 of reducing under-5 mortality by two-thirds well before the target year of 2015. Life expectancy continued to rise and reached 76.6 years by 2018, notably higher than the world average and that recorded in many countries with similar per capita GDP. By describing China's recent economic growth, the rebuilding of nationwide health insurance systems, the development of medical financial assistance, and poverty alleviation programs, this paper shows how these improvements were achieved. Vulnerability to health and mortality risks has been reduced; the availability of, and people's access to, health insurance have increased; and better medical treatments and health services have become available and accessible. These macro-socioeconomic determinants have played the central role in achieving further population health and mortality progress in China in the past four decades.

Childbearing in Italy and Spain: Postponement Narratives

Abstract: Italy and Spain are extreme cases of low fertility linked to postponement of childbearing. Demographers continue to debate causes of postponement. This qualitative study was designed to contribute, ...

Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan

Abstract: Research on fertility changes in former Soviet states of the South Caucasus is scant and has overlooked the role of armed conflicts. This study contributes to filling these gaps by providing the first detailed account of fertility changes in Azerbaijan since independence and by exploring them in relation to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Estimates from retrospective birth history data from the 2006 Demographic and Health Survey show that since 1991 period fertility declined to almost below-replacement levels, essentially as a result of stopping behavior, and, only recently, slight birth postponement. While the conflict seems to have little influence on aggregate trends, discrete-time logit models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity reveal a 42–45 percent higher risk of transitioning to the second birth for women who have been exposed to conflict violence—whether in the form of forced migration or because of residence in the conflict-torn Karabakh region—than for nonexposed women. Never-migrant women from Karabakh have also significantly higher probability of having a first child. Further positive effects on fertility are observed for women who lost a child during peak conflict years. Risk-insurance and replacement effects are possible mechanisms explaining such fertility responses.

Birth Spacing and Child Health Trajectories

Abstract: Using longitudinal data on a cohort of over 4,000 children from four lowand middle-income countries, we document the association between birth spacing and child growth trajectories. We find decreased height at age 1 among children born less than three years from an older sibling. However, we also observe compensatory (catch-up) growth for closely spaced children as they aged. We find no evidence that catch-up growth was driven by remedial health investments after birth, suggesting substitutability in underlying biological processes. We also find that very widely spaced children (preceding birth interval of more than seven years) were similar in height at age 1 as children spaced three to seven years apart, but outgrew their closer spaced counterparts as they aged. However, further sibling comparisons suggest that the growth premium observed for very widely spaced children may be driven by unobserved confounding factors. JEL classifications: I10, O57

Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons

Abstract: Sonless families may pose a gendered demographic dividend. As fertility declines, families with only daughters are likely to grow. In turn, patriarchal family systems may weaken when many families are unable to engage in patriarchal practices. I examine some of these theorized dynamics in India. Sonless families did grow as fertility declined, reaching 10 percent in India as a whole in 2015 and approaching 20 percent in states with earlier fertility declines. I also identify a substantial influence of children's sex on mothers’ expectations of old‐age support. Using panel data from the India Human Development Survey, I compare women's expectations after they had children to earlier expectations when they did not yet have children. Women with sons kept or further embraced patriarchal expectations that a son would provide support. Sonless mothers largely gave up patriarchal expectations, turning to daughters or away from children altogether.

Family Planning and Child Health Care: Effect of the Peruvian Programa de Salud Reproductiva y Planificación Familiar, 1996–2000

Abstract: This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant ECO2014-58434-P.

International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013

Abstract: Evidence on the demographic components of city growth in the global South is scarce, and the role played by international migration is neglected. We analyze the importance of recent international migration in cities, compare it with that of internal movements, and evaluate the growth contribution across national contexts and the urban hierarchy. Combining individual‐level census data and geographic master files of metropolitan areas with indirect demographic estimation techniques, we cover 377 cities in seven countries. It is found that, in almost one third of cities, population change and replacement has been mainly determined by migration. The international component was larger than the internal one in more than half of cities. Whereas internal migration tends to decrease with rising city size, international movements tend to increase. Positive net international migration substitutes for the net losses from domestic movements in large cities, but complements the gains in intermediate‐sized cities.

Aging, Proximity to Death, and Religiosity

Abstract: Considerable evidence has documented that the elderly are more religious and that religiosity is associated with better health and lower mortality. Yet, little is known about the reverse role of life expectancy or proximity to death, as opposed to age, for religiosity. This paper provides evidence for the distinct role of expected remaining life years for the importance of religion in individuals’ lives. We combine individual survey response data for more than 300,000 individuals from 95 countries over the period 1994–2014 with information from period life tables. Contrary to wide‐held beliefs, religiosity decreases with greater expected proximity to death. The findings have important implications regarding the consequences of population aging for religiosity and associated outcomes.

The “Sandwich Generation” Revisited: Global Demographic Drivers of Care Time Demands

Abstract: Generational overlap affects the care time demands on parents and grandparents worldwide. Here, we present the first global estimates of the experience of simultaneously having frail older parents and young children (“sandwichness”) or young grandchildren (“grandsandwichness”) for the 1970-2040 cohorts using demographic methods and microsimulations. We find that sandwichness is more prevalent in the Global South – e.g. people born in 1970 in Sub-Saharan Africa are twice as likely to be sandwiched as Europeans – but is expected to decline globally by one-third between 1970 and 2040. The Global North might have reached a peak in the simultaneous care time demands from multiple generations but the duration of the grandsandwich state will increase by up to one year in Africa and Asia. This increasing generational overlap implies more care time demands over the entire adult life course but also opens up the opportunity for the full potential of grandparenthood to materialize.

Time Use and Household Division of Labor in India—Within‐Gender Dynamics

Abstract: Household allocation of labor is an important area of scholarship in developing countries where women's well‐being is affected by the heavy load of unpaid work within the household. This study extends nuclear household‐centric research on labor allocation by drawing attention to bargaining between female in‐laws in multigenerational households in India. This paper empirically tests two competing theories based on the impact of a daughter‐in‐law's education on household division of labor in multigenerational households. First is Caldwell's thesis that contends that increasing education would increase the bargaining power of daughter‐in‐law, thereby tilting the distribution of household labor in her favor, and the second is patriarchal bargain theory that makes an opposite claim. Both these theories are tested using time‐use data, and the latter is found to have higher explanatory power. Further layers are added to the analysis by tracing the effects of caste, class, and religion. Findings show that these mediate and determine the division of housework and bargaining outcomes between female in‐laws. This study emphasizes the need for an intersectional understanding of gender norms that are inextricably tied to factors such as religion, caste, class, and family structure. Findings also underline the need to study within‐gender dynamics systematically.

Spatial Inequality in Mortality in France over the Past Two Centuries

Abstract: This article analyzes the evolution of spatial inequalities in mortality across 90 French territorial units since 1806. Using a new database, we identify a period from 1881 to 1980 when inequalities rapidly shrank while life expectancy rose. This century of convergence across territories was mainly due to the fall in infant mortality. Since 1980, spatial inequalities have levelled out or occasionally widened, due mainly to differences in life expectancy among the elderly. The geography of mortality also changed radically during the century of convergence. Whereas in the 19th century high mortality occurred mainly in larger cities and along a line from North-west to South-east France, it is now concentrated in the North, and Paris and Lyon currently enjoy an urban advantage.

Forced Displacement, Migration and Fertility in Burundi

Abstract: The civil war in Burundi (1993–2005) led to the forced displacement of a large part of the population. This study aims to explore how that displacement affected fertility behavior. Using a nationally representative, retrospective survey on birth and residential histories of 4,523 Burundian women, we examine the impact of conflict‐induced displacement on fertility. These unique data enable us to distinguish between remaining‐in‐place, voluntary migration, and forced displacement, as well as to distinguish between periods spent “on the move” versus periods spent in residence in the new site. Adopting a semiparametric regression model, we analyze both the probability of the first pregnancy and the subsequent spacing of higher order pregnancies. We find that the risk of a first pregnancy was higher in the year in which a woman was forcibly displaced and lower in the year a woman migrated voluntarily. Residency in a new site increased the risk of pregnancy for both.

Contextualizing Mexican Migrant Education Selectivity

Abstract: The debate on whether Mexican immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education has been limited by studying immigrants in data collected only from the sending or the destination country. Using nationally representative data from Mexico that tracked migrants to the United States prospectively, we examine the education selectivity of Mexicans who immigrated to the United States from 2002 to 2005. We find that using reports of migration by remaining household members and proxy substitution of migration education underestimates migrant selectivity. Migrant men and women were positively selected within households and rural municipalities of origin but negatively selected from the national educational distribution. Differences in selectivity by size of place, as well as when considering the local or national context, means that the answer of whether immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education depends on the context considered.