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Showing papers in "Population Studies-a Journal of Demography in 1985"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Effects of poor birth-spacing persist even after other factors have been controlled, and are similar where a sib was born during the two years preceding the birth of the child, regardless of the survival status of that sib; however, mortality was higher when that siber had died, due to increased familial risks of mortality.
Abstract: In this paper we examine the relative importance of a number of demographic determinants of infant and early child mortality using information from 39 World Fertility Survey countries. We include sex of the child, age of the mother at the time of the birth, birth order, mother's educational level and a number of indicators of spacing of adjacent births among the correlates of chances of survival for children below the age of five years. Mortality of firstborn children and of those born to teenage mothers is shown to be higher than average; that of later children and those of older mothers was not much higher than average, once other factors are controlled. Effects of poor birth-spacing persist even after other factors have been controlled, and are similar where a sib was born during the two years preceding the birth of the child, regardless of the survival status of that sib; however, mortality was higher when that sib had died, due to increased familial risks of mortality. Rapid subsequent births also ra...

393 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It was found that absolute inequality in mortality increased among adult men and married women during the 1950s and 1960s and relative inequality increased for all three groups.
Abstract: In this paper the data on occupational and social class mortality published decennially for England and Wales are used to examine the trend in the size of class differentials in mortality from 1921 to 1972 for adult men, married women and infants. Using summary measures which take into account changes in the relative sizes of the social classes over time, it was found that absolute inequality in mortality increased among adult men and married women during the 1950s and 1960s and relative inequality increased for all three groups. Two widely recognized potential sources of error, changes in the occupational composition of the social classes over time, and discrepancies between the numerators and denominators of occupation-specific death rates are examined to determine their effect on the trend indicated, and the initial findings are confirmed. Finally, the possible causes and implications of rising inequality coincident with declining overall levels of mortality, relative affluence, and the uniform availab...

392 citations



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Estimation of sterility proposed by historical demographers are examined through Monte Carolo simulation of reproductive histories and it is demonstrated that the estimators proposed earlier work well only if the ages to which the estimates pertain are substantially modified from the original formulation.
Abstract: In this paper we examine the age pattern of sterility in a natural fertility population of 16 English parishes. We examine estimators of sterility proposed by historical demographers. We demonstrate through Monte Carolo simulation of reproductive histories that the estimators proposed earlier work well only if the ages to which the estimates pertain are substantially modified from the original formulation. The new estimates show a much larger positive effect of childbearing on sterility than would the earlier ones. We also present estimates of the age pattern of sterility due solely to the process of ageing by eliminating secondary sterility induced by childbearing. This curve rises slowly until age 40, after which the proportion sterile increases rapidly with age. We find no evidence of a sharp rise in the risk of sterility in the 30s. We find strong evidence of a decline in fecundity by examining age-specific fertility rates only for those women who are known to be fecund because they later bear childre...

88 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is argued that back projection attempts an impossible task, and can only arbitrarily select one demographic past from among an infinite set of equally plausible and acceptable ones, which are also consistent with the input data.
Abstract: Inverse projection and back projection are two methods for exploiting long historical series of births and deaths to produce estimates of population size and age structure, net migration, and vital rates. While inverse projection requires extraneous information on population size at scattered dates, back projection does not. In this paper I argue that back projection attempts an impossible task, and can only arbitrarily select one demographic past from among an infinite set of equally plausible and acceptable ones, which are also consistent with the input data. Inverse projection, on the other hand, is more modest in its goal, but is robust and straightforward. In an important and outstanding book, Wrigley and Schofield use back projection to reconstruct English demographic history from 1539 to 1871. In this paper, inverse projection is used to replicate their reconstruction under assumptions that are in important respects weaker, although these estimates are contingent on independent population size esti...

85 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A theory of marital fertility transition that treats birth control diffusion processes and the effects of mortality decline and economic and social development on fertility within a common analytical framework is developed in this paper.
Abstract: In this paper a theory of marital fertility transition that treats birth control diffusion processes and the effects of mortality decline and economic and social development on fertility within a common analytical framework is developed. Utility-cost concepts provide the means for an integrated treatment. Family size utility functions are used and the theory is focused on the effects of development and diffusion on the utilities and costs of alternative family sizes. The principal innovation lies in the conceptualization and analysis of diffusion of birth control, in which the psychic costs of violating social norms against birth control play a central role. When norms shift in favour of birth control, the psychic costs of birth control fall, causing a decline in the demand for children. In highly integrated populations this process can occur very rapidly, resulting in rapid diffusion of birth control and sudden and rapid fertility decline.

81 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The impact of annual variations in prices, temperature, and rainfall on annual fluctuations in age-specific and disease-specific mortality is examined for London from 1670 to 1830 as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The impact of annual variations in prices, temperature, and rainfall on annual fluctuations in age-specific and disease-specific mortality is examined for London from 1670 to 1830. The analysis reveals that deaths in London in the middle and older age groups tended to increase when grain prices were high. Increases in deaths among the elderly are associated with unusually cold winters and unusually warm summers. High grain prices tend to increase the incidence of epidemic diseases, while endemic diseases appear to increase with colder winters and warmer summers. The role of migration is discussed in the light of the results and the implications for long-term mortality decline are considered.

80 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the advantages of large-scale multi-purpose surveys compared with official divorce records for examining marital breakdown are assessed, and the extent of underrecording of the concept of breakdown in the latter source is estimated.
Abstract: The advantages of large-scale multi-purpose surveys compared with official divorce records for examining marital breakdown are assessed, and the extent of under-recording of the concept of breakdown in the latter source is estimated. Demographic and socio-economic differentials in breakdown are examined and the former are found to be generally more powerful. A proportional-hazards life-table model is used to establish the impact of childlessness on divorce in a more satisfactory way than hitherto. Among fertile couples, the length of the first birth interval is found to be particularly important as a risk factor influencing breakdown. Controlling for demographic factors, such as age at marriage and fertility status, is shown to modify the observed crude differences between social classes. Housing tenure and personal factors associated with the couple's individual circumstances are more important than social class in explaining marital breakdown, with age at marriage retaining a strongly persisting and rem...

79 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A critique of the literature on landholding and fertility, and questions the logic of the standard interpretations, is presented in this paper, where it is argued that the landholding-fertility relationship is, in many settings, more likely an unintentional by-product of behaviour such as temporary labour migration, whose incidence varies by landholding status, and which, through separation of spouses, may produce non-trivial differences in fertility.
Abstract: One of the more consistent empirical findings of household survey-based fertility research in developing countries is the positive relationship between landholding and fertility. Despite some differences in interpretation, most analysts regard differentials in fertility by landholding status as reflecting purposive, optimizing reproductive behaviour based on differential demand for children and the psychic, social, and/or economic services they provide to parents. This paper presents a critique of the literature on landholding and fertility, and questions the logic of the standard interpretations. Rather than reflecting differences in demand and deliberate fertility control, the landholding-fertility relationship is, in many settings, more likely an unintentional by-product of behaviour such as temporary labour migration, whose incidence varies by landholding status, and which, through separation of spouses, may produce non-trivial differences in fertility. A case is made for more institutionally sensitiv...

71 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An empirical test with typical recall data indicates that full breastfeeding postpones ovulation longer than does supplemented breastfeeding, and that both have stronger contraceptive effects than has previously been thought.
Abstract: We review (1) neuro-hormonal mechanisms by which breastfeeding postpones the return of ovulation and menstruation after birth, and (2) various statistical procedures used to analyse this effect in human populations. This review reveals that the biology and the statistical procedures are incompatible. We propose a statistical approach, compatible with present knowledge of physiology, that differentiates between ovulation-inhibiting mechanisms at birth and the weakening of these inhibitions thereafter, so that it is possible to investigate the effects on these mechanisms due to breastfeeding and to other determinants such as mother's age. An empirical test with typical recall data indicates that full breastfeeding postpones ovulation longer than does supplemented breastfeeding, and that both have stronger contraceptive effects than has previously been thought.

67 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an economic theory of household formation is outlined, and a probit model is used to guide the estimation of the effects of economic and demographic characteristics of the minimal household unit on the probability of being a separate household.
Abstract: In this paper a new method for the analysis of household formation and the composition of households is described The components, or building blocks, which combine to form households are identified and these have been called ‘minimal household units’ The focus of the analysis is on whether a minimal household unit sets up as a separate household or, if not, with whom it is shared An economic theory of household formation is outlined, and a probit model is used to guide the estimation of the effects of economic and demographic characteristics of the minimal household unit on the probability of being a separate household, economic factors, such as the unit's income, and other social and demographic characteristics of the unit's members are shown to have a significant influence on the probability of its being a separate household

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Evidence is reviewed which suggests that although inoculation had probably protected many from smallpox after the mid-eighteenth century, to an extent that could have reduced overall mortality, vaccination enthusiastically promoted after 1800 had a dramatic epidemiological-demographic impact.
Abstract: The relationship between smallpox epidemics, overall mortality and population growth, as reflected in an excess of births over deaths, has been examined with regard to the main sources of evidence from different parts of Europe. Epidemiological-demographic changes concomitant with different phases in the introduction of immunisation against the disease have been assessed in the light of evidence from records showing some causes of death as well as numbers of burials. By the eighteenth century; smallpox epidemics appear to have become predominant as an influence on fluctuations in overall mortality in much of Europe. Evidence is reviewed which suggests that although inoculation had probably protected many from smallpox after the mid-eighteenth century, to an extent that could have reduced overall mortality, vaccination enthusiastically promoted after 1800 had a dramatic epidemiological-demographic impact. Data from many sources have been summarised and indicate that the disease was virtually brought under ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, changes in the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility, as modernization increases, are analysed Educational attainment and type of place of current residence are used as indicators of modernization.
Abstract: In this paper changes in the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility, as modernization increases, are analysed Educational attainment and type of place of current residence are used as indicators of modernization. We concentrate on the three most important proximate variables: marriage, contraception and breastfeeding, and the analysis is performed on 29 World Fertility Survey countries. Bongaarts's multiplicative model is used for the analysis but the primary data tapes make it possible to construct more refined estimates of the three indices than is usually possible. The patterns of the indices among the two sets of socio-economic sub-groups are considered, as well as the interrelationships of the indices. Fertility differences among the sub-groups are also decomposed to assess the contribution of the separate proximate determinants to sub-group variations in fertility.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined the effect of relative income on Japanese, Chinese, and black fertility in the 1970 Census for California and Hawaii and found that high relative income was associated with increased completed fertility of Japanese and Chinese in Hawaii, where Orientals form a majority.
Abstract: If a white husband's income is higher than expected for men of his age, race, education, job characteristics, and region, economic theory predicts higher complete fertility for his wife. In the present study one per cent public use samples from the 1970 Census for California and Hawaii were used to examine the effect of relative income on Japanese, Chinese, and black fertility. Relative income was defined in two ways: (1) with regard to earnings of husbands of the same race, education, employment, and state; (2) with regard to earnings of white husbands of the same education, employment, and state. High relative incomes defined in each way were associated with increased completed fertility of Japanese and Chinese in Hawaii, where Orientals form a majority. Neither definition of high relative income was associated with the completed fertility of Japanese, Chinese, or blacks in California, where non-whites form a minority. The results suggest that the effect of relative income on fertility for a racial grou...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results indicate foetal mortality in rural Bangladesh to be markedly higher than in other populations where living conditions and health care are superior.
Abstract: This paper is an investigation of the relationship of a maternal nutritional status with intra-uterine mortality in a population of chronically malnourished rural Bangladeshi women. First, life-table techniques are used to compare the level of intra-uterine mortality in this population with levels reported in other studies. Then the relationships of maternal nutritional status, age, parity, foetal loss and season of conception with intra-uterine mortality are examined in a multivariate analysis. The results indicate foetal mortality in rural Bangladesh to be markedly higher than in other populations where living conditions and health care are superior. Maternal nutritional status, maternal age and season of conception all appear to be related significantly to foetal mortality.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The data collected in the Bandafassi demographic study in Eastern Senegal, a small-scale intensive and experimental follow-up survey of a population of about 7,000 in 1983, were analyzed to derive an estimated life table as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The data collected in the Bandafassi demographic study in Eastern Senegal, a small-scale intensive and experimental follow-up survey of a population of about 7,000 in 1983, were analysed to derive an estimated life table. The use of multi-round surveys, combined with anthropological methods to estimate ages and collect genealogies, has resulted in unusually reliable data. Taking into account the uncertainty of the estimates due to the small size of the population, mortality was high, with life-expectancy at birth close to 31 years; a pattern of infant and child mortality close to that observed in other rural areas of Senegal, with a very high level or mortality between ages six months and three years; a seasonal pattern in child mortality with two high-risk periods, the rainy season and the end of the dry season; an adult mortality pattern similar to that described in model life tables for developed countries; no significant difference by sex or ethnic group. The Bandafassi population study and a few simi...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A discussion of the surprising phenomenon of declining life expectancy in a highly developed country such as the Soviet Union during the 1970s shows that this result was probably due only in a small part to 'true' causal changes in the conditions of living as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: A discussion of the surprising phenomenon of declining life expectancy in a highly developed country such as the Soviet Union during the 1970s shows that this result was probably due only in a small part to ‘true’ causal changes in the conditions of living. At least equally important is the weaknesses of the measure of life expectancy by itself. The logical difference between period and cohort measurement is one part of the explanation. Another important factor is the adverse selection of risks by war, which makes international and intertemporal comparisons less valuable. Factors like population redistribution or changes in the registration also contribute to the explanation. Thus; life expectancy (in particular period life expectancy) should not, without closer consideration, be accepted as a reliable indicator of human welfare under such circumstances.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In five Lincolnshire villages between 1252 and 1478 there is evidence that men and women married fairly late before the Black Death, and that by 1348/9 the Western European marriage pattern of late and prudential marriage was well established as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In five Lincolnshire villages between 1252 and 1478 there is evidence that men and women married fairly late before the Black Death, and that by 1348/9 the Western European marriage pattern of late and prudential marriage was well established. Households were usually nucleated; husbands were on average eight years older than their wives before 1348/9, and five years older after 1348/9. Marriages were short: according to the best calculation shorter before 1348/9 than after, most often terminated by the death of the first husband, and were unlikely to produce more than three children. Since there were more males than females amongst children and young adults, many men remained unmarried, but since the death rate of women was very high, men lived longer.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is found that the timing and nature of the response to child mortality appear to depend on the stage reached in a country's fertility transition.
Abstract: In this paper the question whether reproductive behaviour is consciously altered by the death of a child is answered by using World Fertility Survey data from Colombia, Costa Rica, and Korea. Alternative strategies are proposed by which women replace children who have died. They may choose to contracept for a shorter period following the death of a child, or they may cease using contraception. Each strategy is analysed separately for selected birth intervals and its effect estimated with loglinear techniques. It is found that the timing and nature of the response to child mortality appear to depend on the stage reached in a country's fertility transition.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Hungarian death rate has been rising since the mid-1960s in part because the population was ageing but, more significantly from the health point of view, because of a real increase in mortality among certain sections of the population.
Abstract: Although Hungary is not alone in Eastern Europe in experiencing a rising death rate during recent years, this adverse development would seem to have progressed further there than in neighbouring socialist countries, with the possible exception of the Soviet Union. The Hungarian death rate has been rising since the mid-1960s in part because the population was ageing but, more significantly from the health point of view, because of a real increase in mortality among certain sections of the population. The age-specific death rates of males aged 15 and over were all higher in 1980 than in the mid-1960s, the increase being particularly marked for the age group 30–59; moreover, women aged 30–59 are also now beginning to display the same characteristic. In the paper the individual contributions of the various causes of death to these trends are examined and some of the factors that are thought to have enhanced the risk of dying are outlined.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Analysis of levels of life expectancy and their patterns of change among six socio-economically differentiated sub-populations of England and Wales for the period 1851–1911 supports the results of one study in that public health measures affected life expectancies earlier, while subsequently, the increase in standards of living was more important.
Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of levels of life expectancy and their patterns of change among six socio-economically differentiated sub-populations of England and Wales for the period 1851–1911. Differences in mortality levels among these sub-groups and their rates of change are analyzed with respect to three groups of explanatory variables, viz., environmental, stratification and demographic variables. Their relative importance for different periods is assessed and discussed. The findings show consistency with two previous studies, which have suggested that medical advances had little effect on the increase in life expectancy during the second half of the nineteenth century. The present paper supports the results of one study in that public health measures affected life expectancies earlier, while subsequently, the increase in standards of living was more important.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article examined the effects of having a baby during a period of separation on the probability of divorce, and the impact of bearing a child while divorced on the likelihood of remarriage in the United States.
Abstract: In this paper we examine the effects of having a baby during a period of separation on the probability of divorce, and the impact of bearing a child while divorced on the likelihood of remarriage in the United States. Among whites, neither a first nor a second birth during separation had any significant effect on the probability of divorce. Among blacks, either a first or second birth significantly increased the chance of divorce. The function of post-marital childbearing among black women as an incentive to obtaining divorces (presumably to allow them to establish new unions formally) is important, because a large proportion remain separated indefinitely. Whereas the occurrence of both first and second births during divorce significantly increased the probability of remarriage among whites, only a second birth did so among blacks. Further analysis suggests that while the legitimization of births was an important factor among whites, there was little evidence of a comparable effect among blacks.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the biological and demographic literature on the effects or frequency of intercourse on fecundability is reviewed, and Bongaarts's model is used as a starting point for new modelling, which deals with these inconsistencies by taking into account the ageing of gametes.
Abstract: The biological and demographic literature on the effects or frequency of intercourse on fecundability is reviewed in this paper. While empirical work and model-building results agree well on the effect of change from low to moderate coital frequencies, inconsistencies emerge when increase from moderate to high coital frequencies is considered. Of the models considered, it may be argued that the explicit provision for unfavourable cycles makes Schwartz's model an improvement over Barrett and Marshall's, Lachenbruch's and Trussell's. Moreover, even though he used a very different approach, Bongaarts obtained results that are much closer to those of Schwartz et al. than the others. Bongaarts's model is used as a starting point for new modelling, to be reported in the next issue, which deals with these inconsistencies by taking into account the ageing of gametes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the National Fertility Survey of 1975 (NFSS) to calculate fertility and contraceptive efficacy under various conditions and found that there is a high degree of continuity of planning status and that the intention to terminate or delay childbearing fertility of previous users of contraception is lower than that of previous non-users and that of previously successful users lower than those of previously unsuccessful users.
Abstract: The essential advantage of a fertility survey compared with enumeration and registration as sources of data is that the information about reproductive histories makes it possible to calculate measures of fecundability and contraceptive efficacy under various conditions. The principal purpose of this paper is to present such calculations based on data from the National Fertility Study of 1975 a survey of white married women in the US. In the 1st part of the paper the structure of pregnancy intervals is aggregated into its component components by reference to a planning status classification. The actual otucome of use intervals depends on the interaction of the competing risks of stopping contraceptive use or having an accident pregnancy. In the 2nd part a measurement model is devised to infer from characteristics of a survival function the characteristics of the initial distribution of respondents. The model is constituted of a proportion with 0 probability and a dichotomization of the remainder into those with a higher probability and a lower probability following a period of immunity. The measurement model is adaptable to the study of reproductive intentions the effectiveness of fertility regulation and fecundability. The model is applied to the study of the dependence of behavior during a given interval on the planning status of the previous pregnancy. There is a high degree of continuity of planning status. For instance for intervals in which the intention is to terminate or delay childbearing fertility of previous users of contraception is lower than that of previous non-users and that of previously successful users lower than that of previously unsuccessful users. The findings are flawed to an unknown extent by misstatement of plan planning status; the sophistication of the method outstrips the capacity of collect evidence of sufficient quality to justify that level of sophistication.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The author comments on a paper by S. Mitra in which an alternative formula for estimating the expectation of life at advanced ages is proposed and a reply by Mitra is included.
Abstract: The author comments on a paper by S. Mitra in which an alternative formula for estimating the expectation of life at advanced ages is proposed. A reply by Mitra (pp. 511-2) is included. (ANNOTATION)

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the early 1970s, the world's largest class difference in fertility was recorded in North-east Brazil as discussed by the authors, and by the late 1970s the difference had narrowed dramatically, although it probably remains larger than in any other society.
Abstract: During the late 1960s and early 1970s the world's largest class difference in fertility was recorded in North-east Brazil. By the late 1970s the difference had narrowed dramatically, although it probably remains larger than in any other society. The immediate economic consequence is an unlimited supply of cheap labour and a path of economic growth that increases both inequality and the relative size of the poorer class. There are ideological disagreements about population policy. Some expect an imminent reversal of the official view that ranges from laissez-faire to pro-natalist. Others see cheap labour as an historical policy of long standing, beginning with slavery, followed by subsidized immigration of poor Europeans, the latter ending only when the natural rate of increase of the labouring class was sufficient to supply the cheap labour. The historical policy of cheap labour may simply have switched from active to passive mode. Independently of government policy, however, the democratization of birth ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This lecture in honor and memory of David Glass compares Gregory King and Robert Malthus in their ability to penetrate social opacity the resistance of all social structure to objective analysis by their contemporaries.
Abstract: This lecture in honor and memory of David Glass compares Gregory King (1648-1712) and Robert Malthus (1766-1834) in their ability to penetrate social opacity the resistance of all social structure to objective analysis by their contemporaries. The author calls King the 1st person to have recognized the issue to have set out to penetrate it and to have written an objective systematic account of the social structure of his day. His attitude was that of Gregorian realism. Malthu reminiscent of the English philosopher Thomas Hobbes was equally realistic but worked in a much different more theoretical mode. His attitude is called Malthusian realism. The author insists that an understanding of both Gregorian and Malthusian realism are essential to all social scientists especially demographers. Finally before asserting that David Glass was a Gregorian the author shows Tom Paine in the Rights of Man (1790) to have originated the notion of deliberate redistributive transfers from the propertied to the poor by means of the national taxation system. (authors modified)